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Futures, Global Markets Soar In Biggest 4-Day Rally Since November 2020

Futures, Global Markets Soar In Biggest 4-Day Rally Since November 2020

US equity futures and global stocks from Europe to Asia were headed for the biggest four-day rally since November 2020, supercharged by blockbuster earnings AMD and Googl

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Futures, Global Markets Soar In Biggest 4-Day Rally Since November 2020

US equity futures and global stocks from Europe to Asia were headed for the biggest four-day rally since November 2020, supercharged by blockbuster earnings AMD and Google, which hit an all time high overnight after rising 9%. As of 745am, Emini S&P futures traded at session highs, up 40 points or 0.9%...

... while Nasdaq futures were up roughly double, some 252 point to 15,247 or 1.7% higher...

... and the Dow was roughly flat. Oil fluctuated around a seven-year high as OPEC+ agreed on just a 400Kb/d increase in output, as expected to discuss increased supplies. Treasury yields, the dollar and Bitcoin were marginally lower.

MSCI’s index of world stocks added 0.4% on Wednesday, taking its four-day increase to 4.6%. While Alphabet and AMD exploded higher on stellar earnings, with GOOGL reversing all the losses from the recent tech tumble and trading at all time highs, PayPal was a rare disappointment and plunged after missing analysts’ forecasts. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)  shares are up 2% after the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
  • Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) shares gain 4% after Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold, citing “lots of long-term potential” from the company’s Hepatitis B portfolio.
  • Brinker (EAT) shares jump 5% after the Chili’s parent reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the highest analyst estimate.
  • Capri Holdings (CPRI) climbs as much as 2.3% after the accessories company boosted its forecasts for the full year, and topped average analyst estimates.
  • Dynatrace (DT) shares are down 3% after the infrastructure software company reported its third- quarter results and gave a forecast.
  • Electronic Arts (EA) announced results with adjusted revenue results for its third quarter that missed analysts’ expectations, and a forecast for the metric in the fourth quarter also missed consensus. Analysts pointed to the video-game maker’s Battlefield 2042 disappointment, and shares are down by 2%.
  • General Motors (GM) shares are up 2.5% after the automaker reported adjusted fourth- quarter earnings that beat expectations and gave an outlook.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares are down 1% after the software maker reported fourth-quarter results. Analysts wrote that the results show improved software growth.
  • PayPal (PYPL) share sink 2% after the company said spending growth continued to slow in the fourth quarter, prompting a wave of downgrades and price target cuts from analysts including Raymond James, BTIG and Oddo.
  • Shares of companies that derive revenue from online advertising are climbing in U.S. premarket trading following stronger-than-expected results from Google-parent Alphabet.
  • Software companies ironSource and Matterport were both initiated with buy ratings at Deutsche Bank, with analyst Bhavin Shah noting their growth potential.
  • Under Armour (UAA) upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley on attractive setup for 2022 relative to peers and after pullback in the apparel maker’s shares since November’s earnings report. Stock up 1%.

“Robust fundamentals should support a resumption of the equity rally, ” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Wealth Management. Haefele expects markets to remain volatile as investors navigate the shift from a high-growth, high-inflation environment to one of more moderate growth and inflation. Meanwhile, none of six Fed officials speaking so far this week have backed the idea of a half-point rate increase in March, a sharp contrast with Street expectations of seven rate hikes in 2022.

Investors have been swinging between nervousness over Federal Reserve tightening and confidence in the economic recovery as they navigate a volatile start to the year. A robust earnings outlook is helping to ease the uncertainty, at least for the moment. However, a wall of worries including stubborn inflation, regulatory risks in China and pandemic flare-ups still lingers in the background.

“Fed tightening is still the path forward,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. “But a short term rebound in equities will continue -- led by growth and cyclicals -- as investors focus on a narrative of ‘peak tightening’ ahead of what is likely to be a weak payroll report.”

Traders also continued to monitor tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine. Western officials say Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukraine border. Diplomatic talks have yet to make a breakthrough.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained, led by travel and leisure, financials and technology stocks. FTSE MIB and FTSE 100 outperformed at the margin. Novo Nordisk A/S contributed the most to gains in the European benchmark as traders welcomed its 2022 guidance and assurances on the supply of an obesity drug. Vodafone Group Plc. advanced after sales growth beat expectations. Data showing euro-area inflation accelerated to a record sent Germany’s 10-year yield to as high as 0.046%, a level last seen in May 2019.

The moves echoed in the U.S. premarket session where Alphabet and AMD led stocks rising on the strength of earnings. Of the 200 S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far, 80% have met or beaten estimates. Profits are coming in 5.3% above levels predicted.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced as investors shifted their focus to positive earnings from consumer and technology firms amid dissipating concerns over U.S. monetary-policy tightening.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1% as consumer-discretionary and information-technology sectors rose. Japan’s Sony Group and Keyence were among the single largest contributors to the day’s advance. Sony raised its fiscal-year forecast on Wednesday, while Keyence posted record 3Q operating profit Tuesday.  Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose after upbeat earnings from Google-parent Alphabet, which lifted sentiment for its Asian peers. The internet giant reported 4Q sales and profit that topped analysts’ projections, showing the resilience of its advertising business in the face of major economic upheaval as the pandemic persists.  “Buying continues to return to growth stocks,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. Following the recent selloff and solid results from heavyweights like Apple and Google, “people seem to realize these stocks will be alright after all, with their valuations now having been adjusted downwards.” The Asian stock benchmark is extending its four-day gain to about 3.2%, and poised for its best such performance since August. The rally was preceded by a stock rout that sent the measure down by more than 4% in January on concern over steeper and faster-than-expected rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Many markets in Asiaremain shut for the Lunar New Year holidays including China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

Japanese equities rose, with the Topix capping its best four-day gain since May 2021, amid an extended global equity rally. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which climbed 2.1%, pushing its four-day advance to 5.1%. Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical were the largest contributors to a 1.7% rise in the Nikkei 225 on Wednesday. “Earnings have been good,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “Growth stocks were subject to selloffs due to worry over faster-than-expected U.S. rate hikes, but following Apple’s earnings release people seem to realize these stocks will be alright after all.”

Indian stocks rose, adding to gains in the previous two sessions, on optimism among investors that the government’s budget proposal of higher capital spending will drive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.  Shares of lenders helped the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex rise 1.2% to 59,558.33 in Mumbai -- its highest level in two weeks and its biggest three-day gain in nearly a year. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar magnitude. HDFC Bank Ltd. rose 2.3% and was the biggest boost for the Sensex. All 19 sectoral gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. were in the green, headed by a measure of bank stocks.  Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed boosting capital spending by 35% to 7.5 trillion rupees ($100 billion) in the financial year that starts in April. The government also pushed for infrastructure-led growth with spending centered around sectors like roads, rail, logistics and energy. “Focus on higher infrastructure spend has a strong multiplier effect on business activities and job creation,” Mitul Shah, head of research at Reliance Securities Ltd., said in a note. “Preference to higher growth over fiscal discipline was cheered by the market participants.”

Australian stocks advanced as materials, banks gained. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.2% to close at 7,087.70, supported by miners and banks. All sectors gained, except for utilities and tech. Champion Iron was the top performer, jumping to its highest since early August. Block was among the worst performers, falling with other payments shares after PayPal’s earnings results. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.9% to 12,289.64.

Elsewhere, Australia’s central bank governor said the monetary authority will do what is necessary to maintain low and stable inflation, indicating that policy makers will act should prices accelerate too sharply.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a third consecutive day and the greenback was steady to weaker against its Group-of-10 peers as they continued to rebound after last week’s sell-off. The yen and Scandinavian currencies led G-10 gains while the euro also climbed, boosted by the higher-than forecast euro-zone inflation data. The pound was also higher against the dollar. Front-end volatility in the major currencies turned modestly bid Wednesday ahead of meetings of the ECB and the BOE as well as the U.S. payrolls report. Australia’s bonds underperformed as Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe’s comments did little to ease market expectations for a rate hike later this year. New Zealand bonds gained despite a record low unemployment rate.

In rates, Treasuries were steady, with front-end marginally underperforming as German 2-year yields extend climb after hot preliminary euro-zone inflation print for January. U.S. stock futures trade above Tuesday’s high. Treasuries slightly cheaper across front-end, richer in long- end, all within 1bp of Tuesday’s close; 10-year ~1.785% outperforms German counterpart by ~0.5bp. Focal points for U.S. session include ADP employment and quarterly refunding announcement. In front-end 2-year German yields cheapen by 1.2bp, while 5s30s curve flattens sharply following block trades, reaching lowest level since March 2020.

Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET reveals size of next week’s 3-, 10- and 30-year new issues and expected sizes for all coupon auctions (including TIPS) in February, March and April. Half of the 24 primary dealers expect nominal coupon auction sizes to be cut by the same amounts as last time; the other half expect smaller cuts to at least one tenor in anticipation that Fed balance-sheet reduction will necessitate larger auction sizes in the future.

In commodities, crude futures are choppy ahead of today’s OPEC+ gathering.  WTI holds above $88, Brent trades either side of $89. LME copper rises 1.2%, outperforming in the base metals complex. Spot gold climbs back above $1,800/oz

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI reading for January, whilst in the US there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Finally, earnings releases include Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Qualcomm, T-Mobile US and Spotify

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,563.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 477.63
  • MXAP up 1.0% to 187.36
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 609.67
  • Nikkei up 1.7% to 27,533.60
  • Topix up 2.1% to 1,936.56
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 23,802.26
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,361.44
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 59,517.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 7,087.69
  • Kospi up 1.9% to 2,663.34
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $89.64/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,800.33
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.20% to 96.20
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.02%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1281

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • In contrast to tightening efforts by the Fed and BOE that have prompted investors to bet on such moves in the euro zone, ECB Governing Council members are focusing on potential “normalizing” as they ponder an inflation outlook close to their 2% goal
  • U.K. currency and bond markets are testing levels last breached before the Brexit referendum as the Bank of England looks poised to leave the ECB in the dust by tightening monetary policy again this week
  • U.K. retailers raised their prices at the fastest pace in more than nine years in January, passing on soaring costs to consumers already grappling with a cost-of- living squeeze, a survey by the British Retail Consortium showed
  • Vladimir Putin repeated his claim that it’s the U.S. and NATO stoking security tensions over Ukraine, while suggesting further talks could help defuse them
  • Boris Johnson’s latest effort to get the British public’s attention back onto his policy plans was drowned out on Wednesday by more reports of lockdown parties at 10 Downing Street
  • A stronger zloty would amplify the impact of Polish interest-rate increases, central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said, pledging to do whatever it takes to drive down spiraling inflation
  • If women invested at the same rate as men, the global fund management industry could have had more than $3 trillion in additional cash to allocate last year, according to a new study
  • Citigroup Inc. offered a glimpse of the conditions facing India’s debt when it withdrew a buy call within a day of recommending purchases. Yields surged the most in almost two years Tuesday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled a bigger-than-anticipated borrowing plan without signaling who could buy the paper
  • Ten million dollars, $15 million, $25 million, more: Big money is back on Wall Street. Not since the late 2000s, when lavish bonuses rained down before and after federal bailouts, have pay packages at U.S. investment banks swelled as much as they have right now

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks were positive as the region took impetus from Wall St's best 3-day performance since 2020. ASX 200 (+1.2%) was led higher by outperformance in the commodity related sectors and after RBA Governor Lowe stuck to his dovish message that the board is prepared to be patient and the end of QE does not imply an imminent hike. Nikkei 225 (+1.7%) climbed above 27,500 amid a predominantly weaker currency and as Japan continues to hold off on considering a state of emergency.

Top Asian News

  • HSBC Raises 2022 Bund Yield Call to -0.30%; Still -0.50% in 2023
  • Morgan Stanley Tie Up Helps MUFG Lead Profit at Japan Banks
  • Asia Stocks Head for Best Four-Day Gain Since August on Earnings
  • Novo Tries to Catch Up With Booming Demand for Obesity Drug

European bourses are firmer benefitting from after-market US updates amid a number of European earnings releases including Novartis (-2.5%) weighing on the SMI/Healthcare names. Sectors are predominantly in the green with Tech outperforming post-Google while Energy names pull-back slightly from yesterday's gains. US futures are bolstered across the board as the NQ outperforms given  Google's +10.5% gains in the premarket and its heavyweight status in the index; note, Meta and Amazon earnings are due Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) - Q4 earnings beat, approved 20-for-1 stock split via special dividend. EPS 30.69 (exp. 27.32), revenue 75.33bln (exp. 72.13bln). Google Services revenue USD 69.40bln (exp. 66.64bln), advertising revenue USD 61.24bln (exp. 58.2bln, vs 46.2bln Y/Y), Google Cloud revenue USD 5.54bln (exp. 5.42 bln), Google Cloud operating loss USD 890mln (exp. loss 820.9mln) (Newsquawk). CFO said slower YouTube ad sales reflected lapping strong brand sales a year ago, FX expected to be a headwind this year, expects a meaningful increase in capex this year.

Top European News

  • Julius Baer Falls; Results May Spur Earnings Downgrades for Citi
  • Europe Gas Edges Higher as Russia Keeps Market Guessing on Flows
  • HSBC Raises 2022 Bund Yield Call to -0.30%; Still -0.50% in 2023
  • Kepler Sees Carrefour Acquired in 2022, ‘French Solution’ Likely

In FX:

  • Greenback continues to soften on repositioning and a paring of 50bp Fed liftoff bets.
  • Euro pops as Eurozone inflation exceeds expectations by a significant margin in advance of the ECB.
  • Kiwi capped by mostly sub-consensus NZ labour and wage metrics, bar a record low jobless rate.
  • Sterling underpinned ahead of anticipated BoE rate hike and as UK shop prices rise at the fastest pace in a decade

In commodities:

  • Crude benchmarks are steady near the unchanged mark, but within reach of recent peaks, in a continuation of the contained APAC trade pre-OPEC+.
  • Newsflow has been minimal but focused on Geopols amid marginally more positive commentary out of the Kremlin.
  • Spot gold/silver remain within yesterday's parameters and as such the cluster of DMAs for the yellow metal around USD 1800/oz are still in-play.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.6mln (exp. +1.5mln), Cushing -1.0mln, Gasoline +5.8mln (exp. +1. 6mln), Distillates -2.5mln (exp. -1.5mln)
  • Texas Governor Abbott said that no one can guarantee there won't be power outages amid winter storms, according to Axios.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -7.1%
  • 8:15am: Jan. ADP Employment Change, est. 184,000, prior 807,000

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I was back in my home office yesterday after knee surgery and was hooked up to a machine that pumps ice around my knee and compresses it every couple of minutes. Given I also have a bad back, I've ordered an electric massage heat pad that arrives today. So at some point today I'm going to have the mains help pump ice around my knee and also heat in my back. The ESG rating of my body is going to plummet and the bid-offer of my high/low skin temperatures is going to be wild.

The wild markets of the last week were put to one side yesterday even after stronger than expected US data releases led to renewed expectations that the Fed would not be deterred from hiking rates in order to clamp down on inflation. In turn, sovereign bonds gave up their gains from the European morning and US equities got the month off to a decent start after yet another late rally. Alphabet's strong earnings after the bell cemented this. Meanwhile, with commodities continuing their relentless march higher, there was no sign of relief from inflationary pressures there either. The Euro Area flash CPI comes out this morning and will make for interesting reading ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. The strong regional prints from earlier this week mean that this will not fall anywhere near as much as hoped in January.

Reviewing the last 24 hours now and the S&P 500 spent most of the day little changed before making another late-day rally to finish +0.69% higher, while the Vix index of volatility continued to fall, dropping another -2.86pts. Within the S&P energy was the standout sector yet again, increasing +3.54%, driven by a very strong earnings release from ExxonMobil, which had its biggest profits in nearly a decade. The S&P 500 energy sector is now +23.18% year-to-date. The next closest sector is financials at +1.35%, while every other sector is in the red along with the broader index.

Back to yesterday, and other cyclical sectors performed well, while defensive sectors lagged. Outside of energy, four other S&P 500 sectors wound up advancing more than 1%: materials (+1.67%), financials (+1.43%), industrials (+1.42%), and communications (+1.28%). Mega-cap and technology stocks also performed well, with the FANG+ Index gaining +1.13% and the NASDAQ climbing +0.75%. After a slow start to the year, mega-cap shares have done well the last three days, with FANG+ gaining a massive +10.24%. Small-caps also rode the wave higher, with the Russell 2000 outperforming other major US indices, climbing +1.10%. European equities performed even better, although much of that reflected a catch-up to the late rally in the previous US session, with the STOXX 600 up +1.28%.

After the close Alphabet was the latest mega-cap to report earnings, with both earnings and revenue estimates beating consensus expectations. They also announced a 20-for-1 stock split. All this drove shares +8.56% higher in after-hours trading. We’re now about halfway through the Q4 equity earnings season, and Binky and team have wrapped up where we stand so far (link here). Earnings beats versus consensus are running above average, as the team expected, but well below the beats from earlier in the recovery. Sales are also beating consensus expectations strongly, though margin beats are drifting back in line with historical averages.

Moving onto the data. One of the more interesting releases yesterday came from the JOLTS job openings numbers for December, which has been very closely watched over recent months as investors seek to understand just how tight the US labour market is. The latest numbers showed that it remains very tight indeed, with the total number of job openings unexpectedly rising in December to 10.925m (vs. 10.3m expected), whilst the quits rate (the number voluntarily quitting their jobs) came in at 2.9%, which is just shy of the record 3.0% reading in September and November but still very elevated historically. Other measures similarly pointed towards a tight labour market, including the ratio of job openings per unemployed person, which hit another record high in December.

Alongside that we also had the ISM manufacturing reading for January, and although the headline number was basically in line with expectations at 57.6 (vs. 57.5 expected), the prices paid measure came in some way above consensus at 76.1 (vs. 67.0 expected), thus bringing an end to the last two months of declines. To be fair, that reading is still below the 80+ numbers we had for much of 2021, but the single month jump of +7.9pts on December’s 68.2 reading is actually the biggest monthly gain for the measure in over a year.

With price pressures showing no sign of abating, sovereign bonds sold off once again and yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +1.4bps to 1.79% having been 1.74% at the day's lows. Nevertheless, for the first time in a week we actually saw the 2s10s curve steepen yesterday, with a +2.8bps rise to 62.4bps. Bear in mind for each of the last 3 weeks, the 2s10s curve has flattened on 4 days and only steepened on 1, so the direction of travel has been pretty much one way lately. Meanwhile in Europe, sovereign bond yields continued to set fresh milestones ahead of tomorrow’s ECB and Bank of England policy decisions. Yields on 10yr bunds had moved back into negative territory in the European morning, but the afternoon selloff saw them close up another +2.6ps at 0.03%, marking their highest closing level since April 2019. At the same time, yields on 10yr OATs (+2.6bps) also closed at their highest level since March 2019.

While we’re on the topic of inflationary pressures, it’s worth noting that commodity prices more broadly are showing no signs of abating and are instead continuing to trend higher. In fact, Bloomberg’s commodity spot index was up another +0.66% yesterday to a fresh record, and leaves the index up +9.59% on a YTD basis already. Obviously a decent chunk of that is an energy story, but other commodities and agricultural products in particular have seen sizeable gains in recent days, with soybean futures (+2.55%) climbing to their highest level since June yesterday. As we’ve previously been discussing, it’ll be much more difficult to get the inflation numbers to move lower if a number of important commodities continue to show sizeable year-on-year gains.

Overnight in Asia, several equity markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, including China and South Korea. However, the Nikkei (+1.65%) is trading higher this morning, extending its gains into a 4th consecutive session. Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.24%) is trading in the green after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe watered down speculation of imminent rate hike in his speech today. Lowe reiterated that the end of money printing does not mean the central bank will swiftly move on interest rates while acknowledging that inflation has risen faster than the RBA had expected. Looking ahead, US stock futures are trading higher with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 (+1.07%) higher following strong earnings number from Alphabet, whilst S&P 500 futures are up +0.52%.

In terms of yesterday’s other data, German unemployment fell by a much bigger than expected -48k in January (vs. -6k expected), which is the biggest decline since August. That pushed the unemployment rate down to a post-pandemic low of 5.1% (vs. 5.2% expected). Separately, the Euro Area unemployment rate in December fell to 7.0% (vs. 7.1% expected), which is the lowest since the formation of the single currency, but French inflation only subsided to 3.3% in January on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. 2.9% expected), which follows the upside surprise in Germany the previous day. Otherwise, the final manufacturing PMIs for January were mixed relative to the flash readings we already had. The Euro Area number came in at 58.7 (vs. flash 59.0), but UK’s was revised up to 57.3 (vs. flash 56.9).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI reading for January, whilst in the US there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Finally, earnings releases include Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Qualcomm, T-Mobile US and Spotify

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/02/2022 - 08:12

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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Government

CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A…

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CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) paper released Thursday found that thousands of young children have been taken to the emergency room over the past several years after taking the very common sleep-aid supplement melatonin.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images)

The agency said that melatonin, which can come in gummies that are meant for adults, was implicated in about 7 percent of all emergency room visits for young children and infants “for unsupervised medication ingestions,” adding that many incidents were linked to the ingestion of gummy formulations that were flavored. Those incidents occurred between the years 2019 and 2022.

Melatonin is a hormone produced by the human body to regulate its sleep cycle. Supplements, which are sold in a number of different formulas, are generally taken before falling asleep and are popular among people suffering from insomnia, jet lag, chronic pain, or other problems.

The supplement isn’t regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and does not require child-resistant packaging. However, a number of supplement companies include caps or lids that are difficult for children to open.

The CDC report said that a significant number of melatonin-ingestion cases among young children were due to the children opening bottles that had not been properly closed or were within their reach. Thursday’s report, the agency said, “highlights the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight,” including melatonin.

The approximately 11,000 emergency department visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestions by infants and young children during 2019–2022 highlight the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight.

The CDC notes that melatonin use among Americans has increased five-fold over the past 25 years or so. That has coincided with a 530 percent increase in poison center calls for melatonin exposures to children between 2012 and 2021, it said, as well as a 420 percent increase in emergency visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestion by young children or infants between 2009 and 2020.

Some health officials advise that children under the age of 3 should avoid taking melatonin unless a doctor says otherwise. Side effects include drowsiness, headaches, agitation, dizziness, and bed wetting.

Other symptoms of too much melatonin include nausea, diarrhea, joint pain, anxiety, and irritability. The supplement can also impact blood pressure.

However, there is no established threshold for a melatonin overdose, officials have said. Most adult melatonin supplements contain a maximum of 10 milligrams of melatonin per serving, and some contain less.

Many people can tolerate even relatively large doses of melatonin without significant harm, officials say. But there is no antidote for an overdose. In cases of a child accidentally ingesting melatonin, doctors often ask a reliable adult to monitor them at home.

Dr. Cora Collette Breuner, with the Seattle Children’s Hospital at the University of Washington, told CNN that parents should speak with a doctor before giving their children the supplement.

“I also tell families, this is not something your child should take forever. Nobody knows what the long-term effects of taking this is on your child’s growth and development,” she told the outlet. “Taking away blue-light-emitting smartphones, tablets, laptops, and television at least two hours before bed will keep melatonin production humming along, as will reading or listening to bedtime stories in a softly lit room, taking a warm bath, or doing light stretches.”

In 2022, researchers found that in 2021, U.S. poison control centers received more than 52,000 calls about children consuming worrisome amounts of the dietary supplement. That’s a six-fold increase from about a decade earlier. Most such calls are about young children who accidentally got into bottles of melatonin, some of which come in the form of gummies for kids, the report said.

Dr. Karima Lelak, an emergency physician at Children’s Hospital of Michigan and the lead author of the study published in 2022 by the CDC, found that in about 83 percent of those calls, the children did not show any symptoms.

However, other children had vomiting, altered breathing, or other symptoms. Over the 10 years studied, more than 4,000 children were hospitalized, five were put on machines to help them breathe, and two children under the age of two died. Most of the hospitalized children were teenagers, and many of those ingestions were thought to be suicide attempts.

Those researchers also suggested that COVID-19 lockdowns and virtual learning forced more children to be at home all day, meaning there were more opportunities for kids to access melatonin. Also, those restrictions may have caused sleep-disrupting stress and anxiety, leading more families to consider melatonin, they suggested.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 21:40

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International

Red Candle In The Wind

Red Candle In The Wind

By Benjamin PIcton of Rabobank

February non-farm payrolls superficially exceeded market expectations on Friday by…

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Red Candle In The Wind

By Benjamin PIcton of Rabobank

February non-farm payrolls superficially exceeded market expectations on Friday by printing at 275,000 against a consensus call of 200,000. We say superficially, because the downward revisions to prior months totalled 167,000 for December and January, taking the total change in employed persons well below the implied forecast, and helping the unemployment rate to pop two-ticks to 3.9%. The U6 underemployment rate also rose from 7.2% to 7.3%, while average hourly earnings growth fell to 0.2% m-o-m and average weekly hours worked languished at 34.3, equalling pre-pandemic lows.

Undeterred by the devil in the detail, the algos sprang into action once exchanges opened. Market darling NVIDIA hit a new intraday high of $974 before (presumably) the humans took over and sold the stock down more than 10% to close at $875.28. If our suspicions are correct that it was the AIs buying before the humans started selling (no doubt triggering trailing stops on the way down), the irony is not lost on us.

The 1-day chart for NVIDIA now makes for interesting viewing, because the red candle posted on Friday presents quite a strong bearish engulfing signal. Volume traded on the day was almost double the 15-day simple moving average, and similar price action is observable on the 1-day charts for both Intel and AMD. Regular readers will be aware that we have expressed incredulity in the past about the durability the AI thematic melt-up, so it will be interesting to see whether Friday’s sell off is just a profit-taking blip, or a genuine trend reversal.

AI equities aside, this week ought to be important for markets because the BTFP program expires today. That means that the Fed will no longer be loaning cash to the banking system in exchange for collateral pledged at-par. The KBW Regional Banking index has so far taken this in its stride and is trading 30% above the lows established during the mini banking crisis of this time last year, but the Fed’s liquidity facility was effectively an exercise in can-kicking that makes regional banks a sector of the market worth paying attention to in the weeks ahead. Even here in Sydney, regulators are warning of external risks posed to the banking sector from scheduled refinancing of commercial real estate loans following sharp falls in valuations.

Markets are sending signals in other sectors, too. Gold closed at a new record-high of $2178/oz on Friday after trading above $2200/oz briefly. Gold has been going ballistic since the Friday before last, posting gains even on days where 2-year Treasury yields have risen. Gold bugs are buying as real yields fall from the October highs and inflation breakevens creep higher. This is particularly interesting as gold ETFs have been recording net outflows; suggesting that price gains aren’t being driven by a retail pile-in. Are gold buyers now betting on a stagflationary outcome where the Fed cuts without inflation being anchored at the 2% target? The price action around the US CPI release tomorrow ought to be illuminating.

Leaving the day-to-day movements to one side, we are also seeing further signs of structural change at the macro level. The UK budget last week included a provision for the creation of a British ISA. That is, an Individual Savings Account that provides tax breaks to savers who invest their money in the stock of British companies. This follows moves last year to encourage pension funds to head up the risk curve by allocating 5% of their capital to unlisted investments.

As a Hail Mary option for a government cruising toward an electoral drubbing it’s a curious choice, but it’s worth highlighting as cash-strapped governments increasingly see private savings pools as a funding solution for their spending priorities.

Of course, the UK is not alone in making creeping moves towards financial repression. In contrast to announcements today of increased trade liberalisation, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has in the recent past flagged his interest in tapping private pension savings to fund state spending priorities, including defence, public housing and renewable energy projects. Both the UK and Australia appear intent on finding ways to open up the lungs of their economies, but government wants more say in directing private capital flows for state goals.

So, how far is the blurring of the lines between free markets and state planning likely to go? Given the immense and varied budgetary (and security) pressures that governments are facing, could we see a re-up of WWII-era Victory bonds, where private investors are encouraged to do their patriotic duty by directly financing government at negative real rates?

That would really light a fire under the gold market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 19:00

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