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Futures Flat In Quiet, Holiday-Shortened Session

Futures Flat In Quiet, Holiday-Shortened Session

Global stocks rallied and the British pound gained as Britain and the European Union closed in on a free-trade deal although S&P futures were flat in a very quiet session ahead of today’s..

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Futures Flat In Quiet, Holiday-Shortened Session

Global stocks rallied and the British pound gained as Britain and the European Union closed in on a free-trade deal although S&P futures were flat in a very quiet session ahead of today's shortened trading day. In China, Alibaba slumped after China launched an antitrust investigation into the e-commerce giant. The dollar and TSY yields were both slightly lower. Markets close at 1:00 PM ET today and will stay closed for Christmas holiday on Friday.

Energy stocks, including Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp, rose slightly in premarket trade, tracking strength in the crude market as a drop in U.S. stockpiles and hints of an imminent Brexit deal underpinned oil prices.

The S&P 500 and the Dow ended higher on Wednesday as investors rotated to cyclical and small cap stocks that stand to benefit most during a recovery, encouraged by COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and passing of the coronavirus relief bill. The rotation weighed on the Nasdaq, which ended lower. Investors largely shrugged off comments by Donald Trump that a nearly $900 billion stimulus bill, agreed upon after months of wrangling in Congress, was “a disgrace” that he might not sign.

“Right now we have a lot of animal spirits surging into year end,” Michael Purves, founder and CEO at Tallbacken Capital Advisors, said on Bloomberg TV. “As constructive as I am on markets in the broader term, I do expect there will be a hangover of sorts to process this over-extension some time later this winter.”

The MSCI world equity index rose 0.16% after solid gains in Asia. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index edged higher ahead of an expected press conference from Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Thursday, which was delayed over last-minute haggling. Negotiators worked through the night putting the finishing touches on the historic pact, which will formally complete Britain’s separation from the European Union. The pound rose to the highest in a week, while the euro was steady. The FTSE 100 rose 0.07% while the more domestically-focused British mid-cap FTSE 250 index hit its highest levels since February, and UK small caps a record high. The STOXX 50 added 0.17% while Germany’s DAX gained 1.26%.

Sterling rose as much as 0.9% to $1.3619, close to its highest level in two years. Still, the pound’s 5% rally since early November means much of the Brexit relief has been priced in to the currency, analysts say.

The Brexit deal will add to an end-of-year bullish mood in markets, where investors have looked beyond a spike in new COVID-19 cases globally and rising unemployment to the hope that vaccines and more fiscal spending will help spur an economic recovery in 2021. Mizuho analysts dubbed it the “mistletoe effect”, whereby anticipation of a trade accord meant that “despite being subject to the approval of PM Johnson and EU governments the outline deal was enough” to stoke a rally in markets.

Asian stocks advanced, driven by energy and technology shares, as the outline of a post-Brexit trade deal helped lift investor sentiment. Gains in South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and Japan’s Keyence helped put a gauge of regional tech shares on course for another record close. Energy was the other top-performing sector as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a second day. Thailand’s SET Index rallied more than 2% to lead gains among national benchmarks, but was still on course for a weekly drop owing to its sharp plunge Monday on concerns over coronavirus cases and related lockdowns. Key gauges in South Korea and India also climbed. However, China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped. Shares of Alibaba plunged 8% in Hong Kong after China started an investigation into its alleged monopolistic practices as part of an accelerating crackdown on anticompetitive behavior

Vietnam’s benchmark also slumped as investors booked profits following its recent rally. Markets closed early in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore, while those in Indonesia and Philippines were shut

“While the pandemic meant lost lives and lost jobs in 2020, a successful vaccine rollout during 2021 is set to be a game changer: governments will gradually lift mobility restrictions and societies will return to most pre-pandemic habits,” Candriam told clients. “The swift recovery during the third quarter in the Western hemisphere and the ongoing expansion in Asia, where a second infection wave has mostly been avoided, serve as a template for the near future.”

In FX cable was the outlier move; elsewhere the dollar edged 0.1% lower while the euro held above $1.22.

In commodities, Brent rose 37 cents to $51.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 34 cents to $48.46, buoyed by a drawdown in U.S. stockpiles and the potential Brexit trade deal. Gold prices rose, with the spot price of the precious metal at $1,878, 0.3% higher on the day.

No major economic data releases scheduled in today's holiday-shortened session.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,691.00
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 195.65
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 648.33
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,668.35
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,774.27
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,386.56
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,363.11
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 46,997.76
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,664.77
  • Kospi up 1.7% to 2,806.86
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 396.34
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.8 bps to -0.547%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.2198
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $51.09/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 0.474%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 0.074%
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.01/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,877.77
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 90.25

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.K. and the European Union are on the verge of unveiling a historic post-Brexit trade accord as negotiators work through the night to put the finishing touches to a compromise. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning a press conference on Christmas Eve after he’s touched base with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
  • President Donald Trump on Wednesday vetoed the $740.5 billion U.S. defense policy bill, touching off a battle with Congress that could end in his first override by lawmakers, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promising action next week
  • House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told fellow Republicans Wednesday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s attempt to pass a bill boosting stimulus payments for individuals to $2,000 will fail, according to a person who participated in a private call with GOP House members
  • The Chinese yuan regained some traction as a global payments currency last month -- although it continues to trail its biggest developed-market peers -- while the euro slipped back behind the dollar as the pre-eminent medium of exchange
  • Oil was poised for its first weekly loss since October as the discovery of a potentially faster-spreading variant of Covid-19 in the U.K. raised the risk of more energy demand- sapping lockdowns.

A look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian markets traded mostly higher following a similar lead from Wall Street, whereby the S&P and Dow closed in the green but off best levels amid year-end profit taking coupled with holiday-thinned trading conditions. US equity futures overnight remained stable and Eurex is today closed for trading in all derivatives. Over in Asia-Pac, the ASX 200 (+0.3%) was led higher by gains across some of the cyclical names, with its heavyweight financial sector also underpinning the index throughout the session. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) was also supported by cyclical stocks but with upside somewhat hindered by a pullback in Softbank shares, whilst South Korea's KOSPI (+1.7%) extended on opening gains after the country reported less than 1,000 COVID-19 cases. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) moved between gains as losses following a tepid liquidity injection by the PBoC and against the backdrop of heightened tensions with Washington, whilst the Hang Seng (+0.2%) was initially dragged lower by losses in heavyweight Alibaba, whose shares fell over 5% at the open and extended on losses, after China announced a probe into the Co. over suspected monopoly, although the index then conformed to the broader gains across stocks. Finally, 10yr JGB futures were mostly softer amid the gains across equities, with the Japanese curve broadly steeper.

Top Asian News

  • China Probes Alibaba Group on Suspected Monopoly
  • Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day as Tech Shares Keep Rallying
  • Iran Sees $25b in Petchems Revenue in 2022, up From $11b in 2014

In Europe, with several markets closed across the region ahead of the festive break, price action in the equity space has been relatively contained thus far. Of the indices open, the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) has trimmed its modest opening gains with investor sentiment in the UK solely focused on the expected pending announcement of a Brexit deal. Despite some minor details on fishing that are still to be resolved and a delay in the announcement of the deal, it appears that the prospect of a no deal has now been avoided. Accordingly, most of the FTSE 100’s gainers are comprised of the typical Brexit-sensitive names with banking stocks such as Lloyds (+5.4%), Barclays (+2.7%) and Natwest Group (+1.9%) firmer on the session. Additionally, homebuilders are also cheering the news with Berkeley Group (+3.7%), Persimmon (+2.5%) and Barratt Developments (+2.8%) trading higher. Note, the more domestically focused FSTE 250 trades higher to the tune of 0.5%. Elsewhere, there’s not much worth highlighting in Europe with the CAC 40, FSTE MIB and IBEX all near the unchanged mark on the session. Stateside, ahead of the early close, US futures are modestly firmer (e-mini S&P +0.2%) with the only notable incremental news over the past 24 hours being events on Capitol Hill as President Trump’s intervention on the COVID relief/stimulus bill poses a headwind to progress. In terms of the latest updates, House Democrats plan to try to plan to pass USD 2,000 stimulus payment via unanimous consent today. If that does not work, they will push a bill on Monday to increase the USD 600 payment in the existing relief package to USD 2,000, according to WaPo's Stein. Unsurprisingly, reports suggest that GOP Leader McCarthy will object to this. Additionally, in a move that will be opposed by Democrats, McCarthy plans to offer a new CR (Continuing Resolution) separating State and foreign aid from the omnibus.

Top European News

  • U.K., EU Set to Announce Brexit Trade Deal After Fish Compromise
  • U.K. Banks, Homebuilders Rise as Market Awaits a Brexit Deal

In FX, notwithstanding, all the missed deadlines, dashed hopes and disappointments, the Pound remains elevated if not effused with Brexit deal optimism in line with overwhelming odds via bookmakers that negotiators from London and Brussels will get over the line this time. Indeed, Cable has probed above 1.3600 and to within striking distance of the 1.3625 ytd high, while Eur/Gbp is back below 0.9000 awaiting confirmation of a post-transition agreement via UK PM Johnson and European Commission President von der Leyen, assuming no leaks and tweets before their official joint news conference, which is expected at some unspecified time. It goes without saying that Sterling could be prone to a buy rumour and sell fact set-back even if a pact is forthcoming, while the reaction to yet another false dawn will doubtless be pronounced to the point of immeasurable given seasonally sparse liquidity.

  • USD - In stark contrast to the Pound, albeit partly as a result, the Dollar continues to limp towards Xmas and the New Year, with the DXY fending off numerous assaults on the 90.000 mark and only just keeping afloat of the 2020 low at 89.723 between 90.151-313 parameters. Aside from Cable’s exertions, the Greenback has lost safe-haven appeal broadly and barring any last minute shocks on the election front, looks set for life under a Democratic President that promises to be more fiscally expansive. Meanwhile, after benefiting from heightened demand when the first wave of COVID-19 sparked a FTQ and liquidity squeeze, the Buck has been in a virtual and almost constant downward spiral from a 102.99 peak in index terms at the end of Q1. Moreover, any month end selling for portfolio rebalancing could be compounded by quarter and year end positioning, while the Fed is sticking to an accommodative and it remains to be seen how forcefully the incoming Biden administration (assuming he is formally sworn in of course) bangs the strong Dollar drum.
  • AUD/NZD - The next best G10 currencies, as the Aussie and Kiwi revisit round numbers at 0.7600 and 0.7100 respectively amidst the aforementioned Greenback travails, but with the former also drawing some encouragement from China looking at lowering an array of import tariffs to compensate for other goods, like beef, barely, beer and wine that have been embargoed, suspended of subject to high tariffs.
  • EUR/CAD/CHF/JPY - All narrowly mixed vs their US counterpart, with the Euro straddling 1.2200 against the backdrop of heightened Brexit accord expectations that are providing tailwinds for the headline pair to offset some of the Eur/Gbp headwinds, while the Loonie is holding within a 1.2852-31 range ahead of Canadian building permits that might provide some independent impetus given no scheduled US data. Elsewhere, the Franc is hovering just over 0.8900 and Yen under 103.50 following more jawboning from Japan about 100.00 forming a line in the sand (per former currency official Watanabe in wake of current PM Suga last weekend).

In commodities, WTI and Brent have, unsurprisingly in the holiday conditions, lacked clear direction or impetus and as such are in relative proximity to the unchanged mark. Fundamentally, updates explicitly for the complex have been incredibly sparse with attention focused more on the macro themes of Brexit and the progression of fiscal aid stateside following the veto 'threat' by the POTUS; focus points that are likely to capture attention for the remainder of the session given the light calendar. In terms of precious metals action has been relatively contained with spot gold and silver are only modestly supported by the softer USD; perhaps hindered somewhat by the imminent Brexit deal. Currently, the yellow metal is firmer by ~USD 3/oz and is towards the top-end of a USD 10/oz range in a continuation of the similarly lacklustre APAC performance.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing scheduled
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/24/2020 - 08:08

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Chronic stress and inflammation linked to societal and environmental impacts in new study

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors…

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From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

Credit: Image: Vodovotz et al/Frontiers

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

A new hypothesis published in Frontiers in Science suggests the negative impacts may extend far further.   

“We propose that stress, inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of the University of Pittsburgh, USA.

“This could affect the decision-making and behavior of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction and environmental degradation,” he added.

Bodily inflammation ‘mapped’ in the brain  

One central premise to the hypothesis is an association between chronic inflammation and cognitive dysfunction.  

“The cause of this well-known phenomenon is not currently known,” said Vodovotz. “We propose a mechanism, which we call the ‘central inflammation map’.”    

The authors’ novel idea is that the brain creates its own copy of bodily inflammation. Normally, this inflammation map allows the brain to manage the inflammatory response and promote healing.   

When inflammation is high or chronic, however, the response goes awry and can damage healthy tissues and organs. The authors suggest the inflammation map could similarly harm the brain and impair cognition, emotion, and behavior.   

Accelerated spread of stress and inflammation online   

A second premise is the spread of chronic inflammation from individuals to populations.  

“While inflammation is not contagious per se, it could still spread via the transmission of stress among people,” explained Vodovotz.   

The authors further suggest that stress is being transmitted faster than ever before, through social media and other digital communications.  

“People are constantly bombarded with high levels of distressing information, be it the news, negative online comments, or a feeling of inadequacy when viewing social media feeds,” said Vodovotz. “We hypothesize that this new dimension of human experience, from which it is difficult to escape, is driving stress, chronic inflammation, and cognitive impairment across global societies.”   

Inflammation as a driver of social and planetary disruption  

These ideas shift our view of inflammation as a biological process restricted to an individual. Instead, the authors see it as a multiscale process linking molecular, cellular, and physiological interactions in each of us to altered decision-making and behavior in populations – and ultimately to large-scale societal and environmental impacts.  

“Stress-impaired judgment could explain the chaotic and counter-intuitive responses of large parts of the global population to stressful events such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Vodovotz.  

“An inability to address these and other stressors may propagate a self-fulfilling sense of pervasive danger, causing further stress, inflammation, and impaired cognition in a runaway, positive feedback loop,” he added.  

The fact that current levels of global stress have not led to widespread societal disorder could indicate an equally strong stabilizing effect from “controllers” such as trust in laws, science, and multinational organizations like the United Nations.   

“However, societal norms and institutions are increasingly being questioned, at times rightly so as relics of a foregone era,” said Prof Paul Verschure of Radboud University, the Netherlands, and a co-author of the article. “The challenge today is how we can ward off a new adversarial era of instability due to global stress caused by a multi-scale combination of geopolitical fragmentation, conflicts, and ecological collapse amplified by existential angst, cognitive overload, and runaway disinformation.”    

Reducing social media exposure as part of the solution  

The authors developed a mathematical model to test their ideas and explore ways to reduce stress and build resilience.  

“Preliminary results highlight the need for interventions at multiple levels and scales,” commented co-author Prof Julia Arciero of Indiana University, USA.  

“While anti-inflammatory drugs are sometimes used to treat medical conditions associated with inflammation, we do not believe these are the whole answer for individuals,” said Dr David Katz, co-author and a specialist in preventive and lifestyle medicine based in the US. “Lifestyle changes such as healthy nutrition, exercise, and reducing exposure to stressful online content could also be important.”  

“The dawning new era of precision and personalized therapeutics could also offer enormous potential,” he added.  

At the societal level, the authors suggest creating calm public spaces and providing education on the norms and institutions that keep our societies stable and functioning.  

“While our ‘inflammation map’ hypothesis and corresponding mathematical model are a start, a coordinated and interdisciplinary research effort is needed to define interventions that would improve the lives of individuals and the resilience of communities to stress. We hope our article stimulates scientists around the world to take up this challenge,” Vodovotz concluded.  

The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub ‘A multiscale map of inflammatory stress’. The hub features a video, an explainer, a version of the article written for kids, and an editorial, viewpoints, and policy outlook from other eminent experts: Prof David Almeida (Penn State University, USA), Prof Pietro Ghezzi (University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy), and Dr Ioannis P Androulakis (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA). 


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Acadia’s Nuplazid fails PhIII study due to higher-than-expected placebo effect

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia…

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After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia due to the placebo arm performing better than expected.

Steve Davis

“We will continue to analyze these data with our scientific advisors, but we do not intend to conduct any further clinical trials with pimavanserin,” CEO Steve Davis said in a Monday press release. Acadia’s stock $ACAD dropped by 17.41% before the market opened Tuesday.

Pimavanserin, a serotonin inverse agonist and also a 5-HT2A receptor antagonist, is already in the market with the brand name Nuplazid for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Efforts to expand into other indications such as Alzheimer’s-related psychosis and major depression have been unsuccessful, and previous trials in schizophrenia have yielded mixed data at best. Its February presentation does not list other pimavanserin studies in progress.

The Phase III ADVANCE-2 trial investigated 34 mg pimavanserin versus placebo in 454 patients who have negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The study used the negative symptom assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score as a primary endpoint and followed participants up to week 26. Study participants have control of positive symptoms due to antipsychotic therapies.

The company said that the change from baseline in this measure for the treatment arm was similar between the Phase II ADVANCE-1 study and ADVANCE-2 at -11.6 and -11.8, respectively. However, the placebo was higher in ADVANCE-2 at -11.1, when this was -8.5 in ADVANCE-1. The p-value in ADVANCE-2 was 0.4825.

In July last year, another Phase III schizophrenia trial — by Sumitomo and Otsuka — also reported negative results due to what the company noted as Covid-19 induced placebo effect.

According to Mizuho Securities analysts, ADVANCE-2 data were disappointing considering the company applied what it learned from ADVANCE-1, such as recruiting patients outside the US to alleviate a high placebo effect. The Phase III recruited participants in Argentina and Europe.

Analysts at Cowen added that the placebo effect has been a “notorious headwind” in US-based trials, which appears to “now extend” to ex-US studies. But they also noted ADVANCE-1 reported a “modest effect” from the drug anyway.

Nonetheless, pimavanserin’s safety profile in the late-stage study “was consistent with previous clinical trials,” with the drug having an adverse event rate of 30.4% versus 40.3% with placebo, the company said. Back in 2018, even with the FDA approval for Parkinson’s psychosis, there was an intense spotlight on Nuplazid’s safety profile.

Acadia previously aimed to get Nuplazid approved for Alzheimer’s-related psychosis but had many hurdles. The drug faced an adcomm in June 2022 that voted 9-3 noting that the drug is unlikely to be effective in this setting, culminating in a CRL a few months later.

As for the company’s next R&D milestones, Mizuho analysts said it won’t be anytime soon: There is the Phase III study for ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome with data expected late next year and a Phase II trial for ACP-204 in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis with results anticipated in 2026.

Acadia collected $549.2 million in full-year 2023 revenues for Nuplazid, with $143.9 million in the fourth quarter.

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

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Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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