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Futures Flat Amid Firehose Of News, Start Of Earnings Season

Futures Flat Amid Firehose Of News, Start Of Earnings Season

Welcome to the final day of the week and first day of Q3 earnings season, which…

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Futures Flat Amid Firehose Of News, Start Of Earnings Season

Welcome to the final day of the week and first day of Q3 earnings season, which coming after yesterday's torrid post-CPI reversal, has already seen a flood of newsflow and market volatility: while JPM reported solid earnings this morning to launch the latest earnings season helping push its stock higher in the premarket, followed by mediocre results from Wells and Citi and a soggy update from Morgan Stanley which sent its price down 3%, the big news of the day is the unexpected termination of UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng who was summarily fired as a scapegoat for the unprecedented chaos gripping the UK over the past month.

And with traders desperately scrambling to stay on top of all the flashing red headlines, futures are surprisingly flat, as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures flip between losses and gains as corporate results started rolling in. US banks are expected to post the biggest profit decline of any S&P 500 Index sector, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, even as energy props up the entire market. The fear is Fed tightening will spark defaults and force banks to set aside higher provisions against losses.

In premarket trading, tech shares continued to weaken as Jefferies became the latest bank to highlight the impact of higher rates and US restrictions on shipments to China. Nutanix shares rose as much as 18% in premarket trading after Dow Jones reported that the company is exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest, citing people familiar with the matter. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL US) shares gain 1.3% in premarket trading after Cowen upgraded the carrier to outperform from market perform, noting that the third quarter was strong outside of Hurricane Ian, which took earnings slightly below the broker’s estimates.
  • Beyond Meat (BYND US) shares fell 10% in premarket trading after the company lowered its 2022 revenue outlook and said it’s reducing current workforce by approximately 200 employees.
  • Keep an eye on Blue Owl (OWL US) as the stock was initiated with an overweight recommendation at Piper Sandler, which says the asset management firm is well positioned to take advantage of long-term industry tailwinds.
  • Travere Therapeutics (TVTX US) fell 5.1% in postmarket trading on Thursday as the company announced that it sees a three-month extension of the previously assigned PDUFA target action date for its application for accelerated approval of sparsentan for the treatment of IgA nephropathy.

“Even though investors may look through a disappointing CPI print, it will be a much higher bar to look through weak corporate earnings.” Invesco global market strategist David Chao told clients. “Growth is below trend and decelerating because the Fed is still tightening. This is a tough backdrop for risk assets.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 adds 1%. IBEX outperforms peers, climbing 1.1%, DAX lags, adding 0.8%. Utilities, real estate and chemicals are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the biggest movers:

  • Bystronic shares rise as much as 1.9%, the most since June, after company reported a net revenue beat yoy for the nine-month period. Analysts welcome a more specified and positive outlook.
  • Ahold Delhaize shares advance as much as 2.3% after Bryan Garnier said a potential Kroger-Albertsons tie-up removes concerns about Ahold merging with Albertsons, which had been rumored over the summer.
  • Arcadis gains as much 5.3%, the most intraday in three months, after KBC Securities raised its rating on the engineering company to buy from accumulate, saying recent acquisitions have increased the company’s exposure to growth trends, while the stock’s valuation is “conservative.”
  • Kone shares fall, paring earlier gains of as much as 4.3%, after the Finnish elevator firm reported preliminary adjusted Ebit for the third quarter that missed estimates.
  • Temenos shares tumble as much as 23% to the lowest since 2016, after the banking software firm announced a sharp cut to FY Ebit target on the back of a 50% miss on bottom-line in 3Q.#
  • International Distributions Services plunges as much as 17%, most since early days of Covid-19 pandemic, after reporting a loss at its Royal Mail unit and warning of possible job cuts in response to recent strike action.
  • TomTom NV falls as much as 12%, the most since May 24, after it lowered guidance for free cash flow as a percentage of revenue to break-even from at least 5%.

In Britain, government bonds rallied sharply as Prime Minister Liz Truss prepared to reverse parts of her tax-cutting program and ousted chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. The pound weakened. Her plans have roiled UK markets for weeks, forcing the Bank of England to launch an emergency bond-buying program. That program expires later on Friday.

“It does seem pretty clear that the government is preparing a U-turn on at least a very big chunk, if not half, the permanent tax cuts in the budget,” BlackRock Inc.’s chief macroeconomic strategist, Rupert Harrison, told Bloomberg Television. “And if we don’t get that, then the markets will react very negatively.”

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks took impetus from the aggressive rebound on Wall St where stocks made a remarkable comeback from the initial CPI-related selling with several factors attributed to the turnaround including a dovish ECB staff model view, speculation of a major U-turn in the UK’s fiscal plans and a touted short squeeze. ASX 200 was lifted in which energy led the broad strength across sectors and after Australian Treasurer Chalmers recently ruled out scrapping tax cuts in the budget. Nikkei 225 outperformed and breached the 27,000 level amid some earnings encouragement with index heavyweight Fast Retailing boosted after it posted a record annual profit. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. benefitted from the heightened risk appetite as the PBoC reiterated support pledges, while participants digested relatively inline inflation numbers and now await the latest Chinese trade data.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index staged a modest rebound after yesterday’s loss and the greenback advanced versus most of its Group-of-10 peers.

  • The pound led G-10 declines, halting a blistering rally that’s made it the best performer among major currencies this week amid reports of potential u-turns on the UK government’s proposed tax cuts.
  • The euro pared some of yesterday’s advance, to trade at around $0.9750. Bunds and Italian bonds advanced for a second day, led by the belly.
  • The Aussie was the best G-10 performer after China’s central bank pledged to do more to stimulate the economy. Shorter-maturity bonds declined, following losses in similar-dated Treasuries on Thursday.
  • The yen headed for an eighth day of losses, but selling was tempered by speculation the authorities will step in to support the currency. A five-year auction drew solid demand
  • The Hungarian forint rallied by as much as 3% versus the euro, the biggest jump in 11 years, after the central bank said it would provide 18% one-day deposit rate

In rates, Treasury yields fell by as much as 4bps, led by the front end following a sharp rally in gilts as UK bonds head toward their biggest weekly gains since 2011 amid expectations the British government is preparing to partially reverse its tax cuts plans.  The UK curve aggressively bull-flattens with long-end yields richer by 30bp on the session; UK 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 17bp and 5bp. In the US, 10-year futures remain short of Thursday’s highs with cash yields richer by 3bp-5bp across the curve. Focal points of US session include retail sales data and three scheduled Fed speakers. US 10-year yields near lows of the day into early US session, richer by 4.5bp at around 3.90% with gilts outperforming by an additional 20bp in the sector; long-end of the US curve lags slightly, steepening 5s30s spread by ~1bp.

In commodities,  WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer on the day as the Dollar picked up in early European hours, but the contracts hold onto most of yesterday's gains. Turkish President Erdogan has ordered the energy minister to build a gas hub in Turkey following talks with Russian President Putin; says both countries will immediately work on Putin's proposal to transport Russian gas, via NTV cited by Reuters. Spot gold found resistance at it is 21 DMA (USD 1,671.50/oz) with the yellow metal edging lower as the USD extends on intraday highs. LME futures are mixed/contained with 3M copper holding onto levels above USD 7,500/t, but LME aluminium dips following the recent rise. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,662/oz.

Bitcoin posts modest gains after yesterday's rebound, with the crypto above USD 19,500, whilst Ethereum holds a USD 1,300+ handle.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Holzmann, and the Fed’s George, Book and Waller. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UnitedHealth.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,674.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 393.36
  • MXAP up 1.9% to 138.38
  • MXAPJ up 1.7% to 446.58
  • Nikkei up 3.3% to 27,090.76
  • Topix up 2.3% to 1,898.19
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 16,587.69
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 3,071.99
  • Sensex up 1.5% to 58,119.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 6,758.83
  • Kospi up 2.3% to 2,212.55
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $0.9751
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $93.97/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,663.18
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.36% to 112.76

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Hawkish European Central Bank officials aim to start unwinding the institution’s €5.1 trillion ($4.9 trillion) asset hoard by early 2023 while retaining interest rates as their primary monetary-policy tool, according to people familiar with the matter
  • The euro-area economy may succumb to two consecutive quarters of contraction, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos told Verslo žinios, a Lithuanian newspaper
  • Overstretched positioning in the options market is taking a hit after the dollar retreated following the release of the latest US inflation data
  • Singapore’s central bank tightened monetary policy settings for a fifth time in the past year, warning of persistent price pressures and a clouded outlook for the global and local economy
  • China’s consumer inflation remained subdued in September as lockdowns continued to impact spending habits, while soft commodity prices kept producer inflation in check. The consumer price index rose 2.8% last month from a year earlier
  • A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates
  • Sweden’s nationalists, who emerged as the second largest political force in last month’s elections, will stay out of the new government that will take over from Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took impetus from the aggressive rebound on Wall St where stocks made a remarkable comeback from the initial CPI-related selling with several factors attributed to the turnaround including a dovish ECB staff model view, speculation of a major U-turn in the UK’s fiscal plans and a touted short squeeze. ASX 200 was lifted in which energy led the broad strength across sectors and after Australian Treasurer Chalmers recently ruled out scrapping tax cuts in the budget. Nikkei 225 outperformed and breached the 27,000 level amid some earnings encouragement with index heavyweight Fast Retailing boosted after it posted a record annual profit. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. benefitted from the heightened risk appetite as the PBoC reiterated support pledges, while participants digested relatively inline inflation numbers and now await the latest Chinese trade data.

Top Asian News

  • Xi Faces ‘Rockiest Economy in Decades’ on Eve of Party Congress
  • Singapore Unveils New $1.05 Billion Inflation-Relief Package
  • Japan Keeps Up Yen Warnings, Declines to Say If Intervened
  • Iron Ore Heads for Longest Run of Weekly Losses in Almost a Year

European bourses trade on a firmer footing in an extension of yesterday’s gains. There hasn’t been a clear factor behind today’s moves with some desks continuing to cite oversold conditions, evidence of disinflationary impulses in more timely indicators (e.g. NY Fed survey) and hopes of a policy u-turn in the UK. Sectors in Europe mostly firmer, with outperformance in Real Estate and Utilities. To the downside but still in positive territory, Tech, Autos and Telecom names lag peers. Stateside, Stateside, US futures are showing a more contained performance with the e-mini S&P back below 3700 as pausing for breath from yesterday’s rally.

Top European News

  • UK PM Truss is to reverse some economic plans later today, according to Bloomberg sources.; UK PM Truss is to hold a press conference today (timing TBC), according to Bloomberg.
  • UK Trade Department Minister Hands said there are absolutely no plans to change anything; there is no change to plans on corporation tax, according to Reuters.
  • UK PM Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng are weighing up whether to announce corporation tax rise today after chancellor's early flight back from the US, according to Times' Swinford; no decision has yet been taken.
  • UK Tory whips warned that UK PM Truss could face a leadership challenge if Chancellor Kwarteng's economic statement on October 31st fails to end the turbulence in financial markets, according to the Daily Mail front page.
  • UK senior Tories are reportedly holding talks about replacing PM Truss with a joint ticket of Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, according to The Times.
  • The 1922 Committee is ready to suspend the rule that prevents a vote to oust the Conservative leader within a year of taking office, according to the New Statesman.
  • ECB's Lagarde said inflation in the EZ is far too high, and likely to stay above the ECB's target for an expected period of time; governing council expects to raise the interest rate further over the next several meetings
  • ECB's Kazimir said 75bps hike in October is appropriate; Deposit Rate must rise above Neutral but start of balance sheet reduction can wait until next year

FX

  • DXY attempts to claw back some of yesterday's losses and briefly reclaimed 113.00 to the upside vs yesterday's 113.92 peak.
  • GBP sits as the laggard as it unwinds some of the prior day's gains.
  • USD/JPY topped yesterday's high of 147.67 whilst BoJ Kuroda reiterated the need to maintain stimulus.
  • HUF strengthened following an unexpected NBH hike to the Overnight Collateral Loan Rate.
  • Hungarian Central Bank unexpectedly hikes the Overnight Collateral Loan Rate to 25% from 15.5%. NBH will launch a new one-day deposit tender from today with an 18% interest rate.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds are well within a 136.75-138.52 range vs their prior 136.22 prior close.
  • Gilts are back above 97.00 between from yesterday’s 94.52 Liffe settlement amidst further reports that some economic plans may be reversed by the PM later today.
  • T-note towards the top of its 111-14/110-27 overnight extremes ahead of US retail sales and Fed speakers

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer on the day as the Dollar picked up in early European hours, but the contracts hold onto most of yesterday's gains.
  • Turkish President Erdogan has ordered the energy minister to build a gas hub in Turkey following talks with Russian President Putin; says both countries will immediately work on Putin's proposal to transport Russian gas, via NTV cited by Reuters.
  • Spot gold found resistance at it is 21 DMA (USD 1,671.50/oz) with the yellow metal edging lower as the USD extends on intraday highs.
  • LME futures are mixed/contained with 3M copper holding onto levels above USD 7,500/t, but LME aluminium dips following the recent rise.

Geopolitics

  • Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said North Korea's repeated ballistic missile launches are unacceptable and he believes North Korea will take further provocative action including a possible nuclear test. Matsuno added it is getting more difficult to detect North Korea's missiles early and react, while they are considering all options including counterattack capabilities, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea fires artillery shells off sea, according to South Korean military; into the buffer zones in the east and west seas during the afternoon, Yonhap reported

US event calendar

  • 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index YoY, est. 6.2%, prior 7.8%
  • 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index MoM, est. -1.1%, prior -1.0%
  • 8:30: Sept. Export Price Index YoY, est. 9.3%, prior 10.8%
  • 08:30: Sept. Export Price Index MoM, est. -1.0%, prior -1.6%
  • 08:30: Sept. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 08:30: Sept. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 0%
  • 08:30: Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
  • 10:00: Aug. Business Inventories, est. 0.9%, prior 0.6%
  • 10:00: Oct. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
  • 10:00: Oct. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.6%, prior 4.7%
  • 10:00: Oct. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 58.2, prior 58.0
  • 10:00: Oct. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 59.5, prior 59.7
  • 10:00: Oct. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 58.8, prior 58.6

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The term rollercoaster is one of the most overused, lazy terms to describe markets, but the last 24 hours are best summed up by being a major rollercoaster ride and actually home to one of the biggest intra-day turnarounds in living memory.

The white-knuckle ride started with a boost amidst reports of a potential fiscal U-turn out of the UK before then slumping on another upside surprise in US inflation, before rallying again (and rallying very hard) for no obvious reason other than potentially stretched bearish positioning ahead of the CPI. If that was the case one can only imagine how bullish markets would have been if CPI was soft. If you’re looking to further explain the unexplainable, Bloomberg suggested that the S&P 500 had given back 50% of the post-covid rally at the lows which triggered technical buy programs. Who knows if this was true.

To give you an idea of the ride, futures on the S&P were up +1.57% before CPI, down -2.40% around an hour later, but with the main index closing +2.60% and thus putting a spectacular end to a run of 6 consecutive declines, in spite of a CPI report that was another case of bad news from whatever angle you wanted to look at it. The index had a remarkable intraday range of 5.52%. Let's see what US bank earnings bring today as they herald in the unofficial start of earnings season.

In terms of the details of that CPI report, the headline price gains for the month came in at +0.4%, which was above the +0.2% reading expected and meant that the year-on-year measure only ticked down to +8.2% (vs. +8.1% expected). Second, and more concerning from the Fed’s point of view, core CPI was also stronger than expected, with monthly core CPI at +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected) for a second month running, thus taking the year-on-year measure up to +6.6%, which is the fastest that core inflation has been since 1982. Third, it wasn’t just a case of outliers driving inflation higher, since it continued to remain broad-based across the consumer basket. In fact, the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean measure that excludes the biggest outliers in either direction was still up +0.56% on the month (or +6.96% on an annualised basis), so still far from levels that the Fed can be comfortable with. And fourth, if you look at the Atlanta Fed’s measure that divides the consumer basket into sticky prices that change slowly and flexible prices that change quickly, then the monthly gain in sticky prices in September was the biggest since June 1982 at +0.68%, so things are getting even worse on that measure.

Against that backdrop, investors swiftly moved to upgrade their expectation of future tightening from the Federal Reserve, with a 75bp hike at the November meeting now fully priced in for the first time. In addition, markets placed a growing probability on the chances of the Fed continuing at a 75bps pace in December rather than slowing down. That’s in line with our US econ team’s updated call following the release, where they now expect the Fed to maintain the +75bp pace of hikes through December (link here). In markets a total of 143bps of hikes are now priced in by year-end. Looking further out into 2023, the peak rate priced for March rose +25.5bps on the day to a new high of 4.92% to reflect the extra 25bps of hikes, and the rate priced for end-2023 similarly rose +22.0bps to a fresh high of 4.57%.

With more tightening being priced in for the months ahead, Treasuries sold off across the curve with the front-end particularly impacted. By the close of trade, yields on 2yr Treasuries surged +17.2bps on the day to a post-2007 high of 4.46%, and their 10yr counterparts were also up +4.7bps to 3.94% after trading in a 23.8bps range. This morning yields are less than a bps lower across most of the curve.

Decomposing the S&P, the best performers were the cyclically-sensitive energy, financial, information tech, and materials sectors, which, again, bucks against the macro news from yesterday. The Nasdaq lagged slightly behind the S&P, gaining +2.23%. In overnight trading, US equity futures are pointing to further gains with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.54%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.47%) higher ahead of the big bank earnings.

Whilst there was plenty of interest in the US CPI, here in the UK there was also lots of market action going on amidst speculation that the government could be on the verge of a U-turn over their recent mini-budget. Sterling surged on the reports, which came from multiple outlets all suggesting that talks were taking place on reversing course. The biggest centre of speculation was with regard to corporation tax, which had been set to go up to 25% from April before Truss came to office, before that was then scrapped by Truss. Not going ahead with that increase was one of the biggest single items in terms of cost in the mini-budget, which totalled £19bn of the £45bn package of tax cuts announced, although it’s not clear yet to what extent they’ll reverse, and whether that might be to a lower rate than 25%. Overnight it's been confirmed that Chancellor Kwarteng has left the IMF conference early which has further raised speculation of an imminent U-turn.

For now we haven’t had anything officially confirmed, but sterling surged by +2.04% on the day. Admittedly it had a helping hand from general dollar weakness, but that was still the largest daily increase in sterling since the Covid-related volatility of March 2020, so not the sort of moves we’re used to seeing every day. In the meantime, there was also an incredible rally for gilts as speculation of a U-turn mounted, with the 10yr yield down -23.5bps to 4.19% and 30yr yields down -26.1bps to 4.54% having been 5.09% at the highs in the previous session. That also came as the Bank of England bought a record £4.68bn of bonds yesterday, which is the largest so far, ahead of the scheduled end to their intervention in the gilt market today. Whether that actually happens we'll see next week.

That sovereign bond rally was echoed elsewhere in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.8bps), OATs (-3.7bps) and BTPs (-6.0bps) all moving lower on the day. And Euro equities put in a decent performance too, with the STOXX 600 recovering from its initial losses to gain +0.85%. That came in spite of investors also moving to ratchet up their expectations of future ECB tightening, with the rate priced in by year-end up +1.9bps on the day. Nevertheless, there was some better news on the inflation side from natural gas futures, which dropped to their lowest levels since early July, falling -3.98% on the day to €154 per megawatt-hour.

This morning in Asia, stock markets are tracking US equities with the Nikkei (+3.44%) leading gains and the Hang Seng (+3.38%) trading sharply higher while the Kospi (+2.45%), the CSI (+2.14%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.74%) are also trading in positive territory.

Moving on to China, inflation has remained subdued amid persistent lockdowns and soft commodity prices. Early morning data showed that CPI advanced +2.8% y/y in September, up from +2.5% in August, pushed higher by food costs. While it rose at the fastest pace since April 2020, it fell short of market forecasts for a +2.9% gain. At the same time, the producer price index (PPI) dropped to its slowest pace in 20 months, rising by +0.9% (v/s +1.0% expected), down from +2.3% growth in August.

In the FX market, the Japanese yen has hit a fresh 32-yr low of 147.45 versus the US dollar, below the level when the Japanese authorities intervened last month. Yesterday, the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in a speech indicated that he intends to stick to his policy of large-scale monetary easing as raising interest rates now seems inappropriate given Japan’s economic and price conditions.

The CPI was the main data focus yesterday, but we also got the weekly initial jobless claims from the US, which showed an increase to 228k in the week through October 8. That was a bit above the 225k reading expected and above the 219k reading the previous week, although it partly reflected a rise in Florida claims following Hurricane Ian.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Holzmann, and the Fed’s George, Book and Waller. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UnitedHealth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/14/2022 - 08:34

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
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  • Aging LinkedIn
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  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.


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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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