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Futures Flat Ahead Of Worst Payrolls Report Since 2020

Futures Flat Ahead Of Worst Payrolls Report Since 2020

US stock futures were muted, trading in a narrow 5 point range and unchanged for the…

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Futures Flat Ahead Of Worst Payrolls Report Since 2020

US stock futures were muted, trading in a narrow 5 point range and unchanged for the second day in a row after a blistering post-Powell rally, as investors awaited the latest jobs report for clues around the strength of the domestic economy (with consensus expecting a +200K print, it will be the weakest monthly gain since Dec 2020) as well as its impact on the outlook for rate hikes. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were little changed 745 a.m. ET. The underlying indexes were also subdued Thursday after a sharp rally that was fueled by signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank could slow the pace of rate hikes at this month’s meeting.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Marvell Technology dropped after the US chipmaker issued a tepid sales forecast for the fourth quarter. Zscaler Inc. also slumped after the cloud security company gave a forecast for calculated billings that fell slightly short of the average analyst estimate at the midpoint. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • Marvell Technology shares drop 7% in premarket trading after the US chipmaker issued a tepid sales forecast for the fourth quarter. Analysts note that weakness stemmed from the company’s data-center business, as well as a broad softening in demand from China. This indicates that the decline in demand for chips continues to spread outside of the computer and smartphone industries, they said.
  • Opendoor shares fall as much as 2.2% in premarket trading, after the real estate platform provider’s CEO Eric Wu stepped down to become president of its marketplace business to be replaced as CEO by Carrie Wheeler. Analysts said that the CEO change came as a surprise and raised questions around its timing amid a tough backdrop for the real estate market.
  • Zscaler shares are down 9% in premarket, after the cloud security company gave a forecast for calculated billings that fell slightly short of the average analyst estimate at the midpoint. Analysts noted that revenue and billings growth decelerated as macro headwinds intensified.
  • Asana shares slumped as much as 17% in premarket, after the software firm’s revenue forecast for the fourth quarter disappointed, with analysts cautious on the stock given its greater exposure to job losses in the technology industry, which could put pressure on future growth.
  • Veeva shares drop 4.2% in postmarket trading after the company’s adjusted EPS and billings guidance for the fourth quarter missed Street estimate.
  • Smartsheet’s strong quarterly results beat across the board and set the work-management software firm up well to deliver durable growth into next year, analysts say. Shares in the firm were up more than 9% in after-hours trading.
  • Samsara rose 20% postmarket after the software company boosted its year revenue outlook. The company also posted 3Q sales that topped expectations and delivered a narrower-than-expected loss

US stocks have rallied since mid-October, with the S&P 500 posting its first two-month gain since August 2021, on bets that inflation has peaked. The blue-chip Dow is back in a technical bull market, but market strategists have warned equities could see further declines in the first half of next year amid the specter of a recession. Data from Bank of America, citing EPFR Global, showed US stock funds had their biggest outflows since April in the week through Nov. 30. US large cap funds had the largest redemptions at $14.5 billion. Among sectors, utilities and health care attracted inflows, while $600 million exited financials.

All eyes today are on the November non-farm payrolls report, with economists expecting it to show signs that labor demand is ebbing. Still, they say a bigger slowdown is needed to bring that more in line with labor supply in order to contain the wage growth that’s helped fuel inflation. We have posted a full preview here, but the median estimate for November jobs report’s employment change is 200k; crowd-sourced whisper number is 187k. Nonfarm payrolls change has exceeded the median estimate for seven months running; 2-year yield’s YTD high 4.799% was reached on Nov. 4 following October jobs report. 

In terms of the market's reaction to the headline jobs print, this is what Goldman expects:

  • >261k (aka higher than last print) S&P down at least 2%
  • 175k – 261k S&P down 1 – 2%
  • 125k – 175k S&P up 50bps - 1%
  • 0 – 125k S&P up 1 - 2%

Many economists reckon Friday’s employment report may fall short of the turning point Fed officials are seeking in their battle to beat back inflation. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey calls for payrolls to rise 200,000 in November, cooling only slightly from the previous month. Other market watchers point to signs that steep rate hikes will tip more economies into a downturn.

“Nervous Fed-watchers will be hoping that the non-farms number comes in somewhat below consensus to strengthen the case for a moderation of aggressive rate hikes so far,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor. “On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected reading, while positive for the economy, would be damaging for that case in another example of good news being bad news for investors.”

“Consensus is that recession is coming but equities cannot bottom before it starts, inflation won’t fall quickly so central banks can’t blink, China reopening will be a messy process, and Europe remains tricky,” Barclays Plc strategist Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note.

And speaking of that, recession concerns have become more pronounced after data on Thursday showed November factory activity sliding in a range of countries, with American manufacturing contracting for the first time since May 2020. Recent company reports also hint at mounting pressure on company earnings, and companies, ranging from Amazon.com to Ford Motor Co., have announced thousands of job cuts.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 is little changed before the release of US payroll data.  Here are the top European movers:

  • Credit Suisse shares rise as much as 6.9%, halting a 13-day losing streak, as Chairman Axel Lehmann said the bank has mostly stemmed the huge outflow of client assets.
  • AJ Bell jumps as much as 12% to its highest level in a year after Jefferies upgraded its rating to buy from hold, praising the strategy of the firm’s trading platform.
  • Goldman Sachs upgrades both AB Foods and H&M to neutral. AB Foods shares rise as much as 4.3%, touching the highest since August, while H&M gains as much as 3.1%.
  • Separately, Morgan Stanley sees a “perfect storm” ahead for apparel retail as revenue and cost pressures collide, in a note putting an overweight rating on AB Foods, equal-weights on Next and Inditex and underweight on H&M.
  • Trigano hits the highest level since April, rising as much as 3.6% in a third straight day of gains since the French caravan maker announced results on Tuesday evening.
  • Sanofi is the worst performer across France’s SBF 120 index on Friday, losing as much as 2.5%, after the French pharmaceutical group confirmed that any offer it would make for Horizon Therapeutics would be solely in cash.
  • PolyPeptide falls as much as 37%, the most since July, after the Swiss peptides maker issued its second profit warning of 2022. The update casts a “very negative shadow” on the company’s strategic alignment and management, ZKB says, downgrading the stock to underperform from market perform.
  • Kerry Group falls as much as 3.8% in Dublin, heading for a seventh daily drop, after Citi downgraded to neutral from buy, expecting the food company to face volume headwinds in 2023 as customers reduce inventory levels.
  • DOF shares drop as much as 53% in Oslo, the most since 2016, after the firm said it will petition for reconstruction proceedings with Hordaland district court.

Earlier in the session, Asia stocks fell, trimming their weekly gain, as investors sold off some positions ahead of a key jobs report in the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.9%, with most sectors in the red, led by energy and utility stocks. Benchmarks in Japan and South Korea were among the worst performers as investors await more signs of China’s reopening and economic policy at an upcoming meeting of the country’s top leaders. Chinese stocks edged lower. Read: China Watchers See Shift to Growth at Politburo Meeting (1) All eyes will also be on the payrolls and employment data due in the US Friday. 

“The US job report will be the key risk event today,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia in a note. “Current expectations are pointing to job gains of 200,000, which is a step closer to pre-Covid levels.” The Asian measure is poised to advance more than 2% this week, set for its fifth weekly gain. Bullish indicators are growing, with the index testing its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2021, as global funds dip back into the region. Foreign funds pumped about $15.7 billion into emerging Asia shares outside China last month, the biggest inflows in two years, Bloomberg-compiled data shows.

Japanese stocks dropped as investors weighed data showing US manufacturing contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 and as the yen strengthened against the dollar.  The Topix fell 1.6% to close at 1,953.98, while the Nikkei declined 1.6% to 27,777.90. The Japanese currency slightly extended against the greenback, up nearly 3% on the week. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 4.2%. Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 201 rose and 1,919 fell, while 44 were unchanged. The yen has been gaining strength against the dollar and investors are cautious ahead of the monthly US employment report, creating a double-whammy for stocks, said Ercan Serdar Armutcu, head of electronic trading at Mita Securities. 

Australian stocks snapped a 3-day rally: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.7% to close at 7,301.50, taking a breather after three consecutive days of advances. Banks and some commodity stocks dragged the benchmark most.  Still, the index posted a weekly advance of 0.6%, ending a second week in the green. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 11,641.85.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gave up an early Asia session gain as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers.

  • The euro rose to touch $1.0545, the highest level since June, and its volatility skew shifted higher as leveraged desks unwind long-term bearish bets.
  • The yen led G-10 gains. The Japanese currency briefly strengthened beyond 134 per dollar and is set for its longest rising streak since April 2021. BOJ’s new board member Naoki Tamura said “it would be appropriate to conduct a review at the right time, including the monetary policy framework and inflation target”.
  • Australian and New Zealand bonds rally as a drop in stocks boosts demand for haven assets and ahead of the key US employment report later Friday. Scandinavian currencies were the worst G-10 performers

In rates, treasuries twist-steepened, with the 2-year yield falling around 4bps and the 30-year yield rising by about 2bps; the 2- to 5-year yields declined to lowest levels in several weeks; 2s10s approaches Wednesday’s high.  Front-end yields are richer by 2bp-3bp curve, 10-year cheaper by ~1bp at 3.51%, steepening 2s10s by ~3bp; bunds outperform by 4bp, gilts by 6bp in the 10-year sector.  Bunds outperform in bull-steepening price action. Bund and gilt curves bull steepen. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 1.1bps to 187.2bps.  Dollar issuance slate empty so far, while no issuers announced bond sales on Thursday; December is expected to be slow for issuance with just $20b expected vs November tally of $102b

In commodities, oil headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months, benefiting from looser Chinese curbs, calls by the Biden administration to halt sales from US strategic reserves and an OPEC producers’ group decision to cut crude supply by the most since 2020. Crude futures were steady. WTI trades within Thursday’s range at near $81.22. Most base metals trade in the green. WTI and Brent futures are subdued in early European hours as market participants await the next catalyst, and with the clock ticking down to the US jobs report.  The G7 price cap coalition official said they are 'very very close' to an agreement on a USD 60/bbl price cap for Russian oil exports and there is some flexibility in determining the market price of Russian crude for the price cap. The official said oil markets seem pretty comfortable with a cap mechanism and noted uncertainty on how Russia will react to a USD 60/bbl cap but added that Russia has no good options, according to Reuters. Spot gold is flat in pre-NFP trade and probes the USD 1,800/oz mark with the 200 DMA today at USD 1,795/oz. Base metal futures are similarly flat/mixed with 3M copper off session highs of around USD 8,418/t and closer to session lows.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for November. Otherwise, we’ll get data on French industrial production and Euro Area PPI for October. Elsewhere, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Villeroy and Nagel, along with the Fed’s Barkin and Evans.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,076.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 443.62
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 158.53
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 513.09
  • Nikkei down 1.6% to 27,777.90
  • Topix down 1.6% to 1,953.98
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 18,675.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,156.14
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 62,851.92
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,301.46
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,434.33
  • German 10Y yield down 1.2% to 1.79%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0520
  • Brent Futures little changed at $86.82/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,801.49
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 104.59

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde said inflation expectations need to remain anchored and that the public needs to know price gains will be brought back to target
  • The global economy may be headed for a new era of volatile inflation, making it even more crucial to anchor expectations for where prices are headed, central bank governors warned Friday
  • There’s been a “significant” improvement in relations between the European Union and UK, and a landing zone in their Brexit negotiations is possible in the next few weeks, Ireland’s foreign minister said, even though there has been “no major breakthroughs” over the Northern Ireland Protocol
  • Italy will meet all its second semester objectives for the Next Generation EU program by the end of this year, Economy and Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said
  • Option traders are growing less concerned about potential dollar strength as the drivers of the US currency’s world-beating rally fade away
  • A rush by Japan’s life insurers to protect themselves against a stronger yen may have the paradoxical effect of accelerating gains in the currency
  • Central banks are facing their first test in a new world of more variable inflation that they must pass in order to re-establish confidence in the community, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said
  • South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s allies closed ranks behind him as the governing party’s top leaders prepared to discuss his fate over an independent panel’s findings that there may be grounds for his impeachment. The rand rallied and government bond yields fell

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks were subdued following the uninspired lead from the US where the major indices took a breather from the Powell-induced rally and finished relatively flat amid soft data releases and ahead of the looming NFP jobs report. ASX 200 was pressured as weakness in real estate, energy and the top-weighted financials sector overshadowed the resilience in defensives. Nikkei 225 underperformed and fell back below the 28,000 level, while there were notable comments from BoJ’s Tamura who called for a review of the BoJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy framework. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive but with downside stemmed following the recent slight easing of China’s COVID rules.

Top Asian News

  • China's top leaders will likely signal a more reasonable approach to COVID controls at the upcoming meeting of the CPC's Politburo which usually takes place in early December, according to economists cited by Bloomberg.
  • China's Beijing City to allow passengers without a 48-hour COVID nucleic acid negative certificate to take buses and subways from Monday; busses and subways cannot reject people with no COVID test results, according to Bloomberg.
  • PBoC Governor Yi said the forecast for China's inflation in 2023 is in a moderate range, while he noted the current focus is on growth and that monetary policy has been pretty accommodative.
  • Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun said they will keep the economy within a reasonable range and strive to realise better results, while Liu added that China's economy will keep growing at a reasonable speed with stable employment and prices, according to Reuters.
  • China's top four banks intend to issue offshore loans for domestic developers overseas debt repayments, via Reuters citing sources.

Equities in Europe are mostly mildly softer with the ranges particularly narrow ahead of the US jobs report; US futures in-fitting. DXY is under pressure with peers modestly firmer and JPY outpacing given yield differentials and Tamura's remarks. Bunds are modest bid but failed to breach 143.00 with USTs essentially unchanged pre-NFP. Crude benchmarks similarly contained awaiting oil cap/OPEC+ developments. Beijing City is to ease its COVID travel restrictions from Monday while reports indicate the Politburo could signal a more reasonable approach. Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Jobs Reports, Speakers from ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Barkin & Evans.

Top European News

  • ECB President Lagarde said monetary policy is complicated by three uncertainties including the global economy and CPI outlook, while she added that all policies need to act in concert for sustainable growth.
  • US President Biden and French President Macron made major progress in talks on how to alleviate the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on Europe in which the US could use executive orders to give European allies the same level of exemptions on local content as countries with a free-trade deal, according to a source at the French Finance Ministry
  • EU Commissioner Breton withdrew from EU-US Trade and Technology Council discussions and believed that talks will not provide enough space to EU concerns, according to Politico.

Fixed Income

  • Modest overnight Bund pressure proved shortlived and appeared more of a pause for breath rather than a concerted pullback.
  • Instead, the German benchmark has tested but failed to breach 143.00 while USTs are essentially unchanged in 10tick parameters pre-NFP.
  • NFP aside, newsflow has been limited and of insufficient magnitude thus far to impact the above price action.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures are subdued in early European hours as market participants await the next catalyst, and with the clock ticking down to the US jobs report.
  • Spot gold is flat in pre-NFP trade and probes the USD 1,800/oz mark with the 200 DMA today at USD 1,795/oz.
  • Base metal futures are similarly flat/mixed with 3M copper off session highs of around USD 8,418/t and closer to session lows.
  • G7 price cap coalition official said they are 'very very close' to an agreement on a USD 60/bbl price cap for Russian oil exports and there is some flexibility in determining the market price of Russian crude for the price cap. The official said oil markets seem pretty comfortable with a cap mechanism and noted uncertainty on how Russia will react to a USD 60/bbl cap but added that Russia has no good options, according to Reuters.
  • Just one of these three ministries/ministers handling the oil price cap is yet to okay it, according to WSJ's Norman's sources.
  • Turkish media says a fire broke out in the port of Samsun due to the explosion of an oil depot, according to Al Arabiya.
  • India will continue to buy oil from wherever possible, including Russia, according to a source cited by Reuters; adds that India will continue to get oil, even beyond January 19th.

FX

  • DXY sees another session of early European weakness for the broader Dollar and index as the JPY continues to strengthen.
  • JPY is again the marked outperformer with gains fuelled by further narrowing yield differentials post-Powell, and with BoJ’s board member Tamura yesterday striking somewhat of a hawkish tone; USD/JPY down to 133.64 at worst.
  • NZD, AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP are all modestly firmer against the USD and to varying degrees, whilst the CAD lags ahead of the Canadian jobs report.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0542 vs exp. 7.0563 (prev. 7.1225)
  • Chairman of South Africa's ANC has denied that President Ramaphosa has considered resigning.

Geopolitics

  • Military analysts claimed that satellite images suggested Russia is planning an 'imminent' large-scale missile strike on Ukraine, according to Sky News Australia.
  • Belarusian border guards shot down a Ukrainian march that conducted reconnaissance and photographing operations over the border areas with Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera.
  • US imposed additional North Korea-related sanctions on three individuals and Japan imposed additional sanctions on 3 entities and 1 individual from North Korea, while South Korea imposed sanctions on 8 individuals and 7 agencies over North Korea's weapons programme, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 200,000, prior 261,000
    • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 185,000, prior 233,000
    • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 18,000, prior 32,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 6.8%
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.3%, prior 62.2%
    • Nov. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 4.7%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:15: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Richmond
  • 10:15: Fed’s Evans Speaks at Event on Financial Regulation
  • 14:00: Fed’s Evans Gives Welcome Remarks at Economic Symposium

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After the massive surge on Wednesday following Fed Chair Powell’s speech, the rally in risk assets stalled out yesterday thanks to weak US data that sparked growing concern about the state of the economy. There were lots of releases to digest, but in many ways the most notable was the ISM manufacturing print, which fell into contractionary territory for the first time since May 2020, coming in beneath expectations at 49.0, and crucially beneath the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. The sub-components didn’t look too promising either, with the employment reading at 48.4, and new orders down to 47.2.

Of course, we should add the usual caveats this is just one data release, but it fits into a declining trend for the ISM over the last year, and only added to fears about a potential recession. In addition, it comes on the back of some other pretty negative data over recent days. For instance, last week’s flash PMIs for November were also in contractionary territory, and Wednesday’s Chicago PMI release came in at levels that have historically been consistent with recessions.

This gloomy backdrop meant that investors once again put increasing emphasis on a dovish pivot from the Fed. Indeed, terminal rate pricing fell back to 4.86%, which is the lowest it’s been in a couple of weeks and is noticeably beneath the 5% levels before Powell’s Wednesday speech. In turn, this led to a further rally in Treasuries, with the 10yr yield coming down by a sizeable -10.1bps on the day to 3.50%, which is its lowest level in a couple of months, although we’ve had a slight +3.4bps pullback this morning. Bear in mind that the 10yr Treasury yield hit an intraday peak of 4.34% in late-October, so we’re now down by around -80bps from those levels. Furthermore, the decline yesterday was driven by real yields, with the 10yr real yield down -10.7bps on the day to 1.14%.

Those hopes for a dovish pivot from investors were given added support by the latest PCE inflation data for October, which is the measure the Fed officially target. That showed the month-on-month numbers coming in beneath expectations, with headline PCE up +0.3% (vs. +0.4% expected), and core PCE up +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected). There were also signs that inflationary pressures were waning in the ISM release, since the prices paid indicator fell to 43.0 (vs. 45.9 expected), marking the lowest level for that reading since May 2020.

Whilst this environment proved a great backdrop for Treasuries, equities had a tougher time yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.09%) ending the session modestly lower as investors considered the tough outlook. Banks (-1.77%) were one of the worst-performing sectors as bond yields continued their decline, but tech was a relative outperformer and the FANG+ index (+0.55%) of megacap tech stocks even hit a 2-month high. Over in Europe the major indices advanced for the most part, but that was more a reflection of them catching up to the previous day’s rally following Powell’s speech. That saw the STOXX 600 (+0.89%) hit its highest level in nearly 5 months, with the index now on track for a 7th consecutive weekly advance.

As investors mull over the prospects for a dovish Fed pivot, attention today will turn to the US jobs report, which is out at 13:30 London time. Our US economists expect that growth in nonfarm payrolls will have slowed to +200k in November, which is in line with consensus and would mark the weakest number since December 2020. That should still be enough to lower the unemployment rate by a tenth to 3.6%, but clearly a downside surprise would only add to the jitters in markets given the negative survey data for November that we’ve already had.

Speaking of the Fed, yesterday we heard from a few officials, including New York President Williams, who said “I still think we have a ways to go” on raising rates. He added that he felt “we need to get the federal funds rate above the inflation rate”, and the two still remain some way apart even with the recent series of 75bp hikes. Remember as well that today is the last opportunity for FOMC officials to comment before their blackout period begins ahead of the next meeting, so these comments are some of the last clues we’ll get ahead of the next decision and the December dot plot. Elsewhere, we also heard that the new Chicago Fed President would be Austan Goolsbee, a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. Goolsbee will have a vote on the FOMC in 2023, and has previously said on October 31 that a peak fed funds rate around 5% “kind of makes sense to me.”

Back in Europe, sovereign bonds rallied alongside US Treasuries as investors caught up with Chair Powell’s speech and priced in a more dovish outcome for the ECB as well. For instance, the hike priced in for this month’s meeting fell to 54.1bps, which is the lowest since mid-September as investors became increasingly sceptical that the ECB will continue to hike at a 75bps pace. That triggered a big rally across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-11.7bps), OATs (-14.0bps) and BTPs (-17.6bps) all moving lower on the day. In the meantime, the continued weakness for the US Dollar meant that the Euro surpassed the $1.05 mark in trading for the first time since June, yesterday, where it remains this morning.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets have continued that trend lower from the US, with the Nikkei (-1.72%), the KOSPI (-1.45%), the Hang Seng (-0.60%), the CSI 300 (-0.49%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.24%) all trading lower. The moves came in spite of further signs of waning inflationary pressures, with South Korean CPI falling to +5.0% in November (vs. +5.2% expected). That’s been echoed by US futures, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.19%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.33%) both in negative territory ahead of today’s jobs report.

Finally, with all the data releases yesterday, there were plenty of numbers that got relatively less attention than usual, but still told an interesting story. First, the Nationwide house price index in the UK saw a monthly drop of -1.4% in November, which is the steepest decline since early 2009 if you exclude the pandemic months of April and May 2020. Second, the Euro Area unemployment rate fell to a record low of 6.5% in October (vs. 6.6% expected). And back in the US, the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 225k in the week ending November 26 (vs. 235k expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for November. Otherwise, we’ll get data on French industrial production and Euro Area PPI for October. Elsewhere, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Villeroy and Nagel, along with the Fed’s Barkin and Evans.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/02/2022 - 08:05

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Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence…

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Separating Information From Disinformation: Threats From The AI Revolution

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence (AI) cannot distinguish fact from fiction. It also isn’t creative or can create novel content but repeats, repackages, and reformulates what has already been said (but perhaps in new ways).

I am sure someone will disagree with the latter, perhaps pointing to the fact that AI can clearly generate, for example, new songs and lyrics. I agree with this, but it misses the point. AI produces a “new” song lyric only by drawing from the data of previous song lyrics and then uses that information (the inductively uncovered patterns in it) to generate what to us appears to be a new song (and may very well be one). However, there is no artistry in it, no creativity. It’s only a structural rehashing of what exists.

Of course, we can debate to what extent humans can think truly novel thoughts and whether human learning may be based solely or primarily on mimicry. However, even if we would—for the sake of argument—agree that all we know and do is mere reproduction, humans have limited capacity to remember exactly and will make errors. We also fill in gaps with what subjectively (not objectively) makes sense to us (Rorschach test, anyone?). Even in this very limited scenario, which I disagree with, humans generate novelty beyond what AI is able to do.

Both the inability to distinguish fact from fiction and the inductive tether to existent data patterns are problems that can be alleviated programmatically—but are open for manipulation.

Manipulation and Propaganda

When Google launched its Gemini AI in February, it immediately became clear that the AI had a woke agenda. Among other things, the AI pushed woke diversity ideals into every conceivable response and, among other things, refused to show images of white people (including when asked to produce images of the Founding Fathers).

Tech guru and Silicon Valley investor Marc Andreessen summarized it on X (formerly Twitter): “I know it’s hard to believe, but Big Tech AI generates the output it does because it is precisely executing the specific ideological, radical, biased agenda of its creators. The apparently bizarre output is 100% intended. It is working as designed.”

There is indeed a design to these AIs beyond the basic categorization and generation engines. The responses are not perfectly inductive or generative. In part, this is necessary in order to make the AI useful: filters and rules are applied to make sure that the responses that the AI generates are appropriate, fit with user expectations, and are accurate and respectful. Given the legal situation, creators of AI must also make sure that the AI does not, for example, violate intellectual property laws or engage in hate speech. AI is also designed (directed) so that it does not go haywire or offend its users (remember Tay?).

However, because such filters are applied and the “behavior” of the AI is already directed, it is easy to take it a little further. After all, when is a response too offensive versus offensive but within the limits of allowable discourse? It is a fine and difficult line that must be specified programmatically.

It also opens the possibility for steering the generated responses beyond mere quality assurance. With filters already in place, it is easy to make the AI make statements of a specific type or that nudges the user in a certain direction (in terms of selected facts, interpretations, and worldviews). It can also be used to give the AI an agenda, as Andreessen suggests, such as making it relentlessly woke.

Thus, AI can be used as an effective propaganda tool, which both the corporations creating them and the governments and agencies regulating them have recognized.

Misinformation and Error

States have long refused to admit that they benefit from and use propaganda to steer and control their subjects. This is in part because they want to maintain a veneer of legitimacy as democratic governments that govern based on (rather than shape) people’s opinions. Propaganda has a bad ring to it; it’s a means of control.

However, the state’s enemies—both domestic and foreign—are said to understand the power of propaganda and do not hesitate to use it to cause chaos in our otherwise untainted democratic society. The government must save us from such manipulation, they claim. Of course, rarely does it stop at mere defense. We saw this clearly during the covid pandemic, in which the government together with social media companies in effect outlawed expressing opinions that were not the official line (see Murthy v. Missouri).

AI is just as easy to manipulate for propaganda purposes as social media algorithms but with the added bonus that it isn’t only people’s opinions and that users tend to trust that what the AI reports is true. As we saw in the previous article on the AI revolution, this is not a valid assumption, but it is nevertheless a widely held view.

If the AI then can be instructed to not comment on certain things that the creators (or regulators) do not want people to see or learn, then it is effectively “memory holed.” This type of “unwanted” information will not spread as people will not be exposed to it—such as showing only diverse representations of the Founding Fathers (as Google’s Gemini) or presenting, for example, only Keynesian macroeconomic truths to make it appear like there is no other perspective. People don’t know what they don’t know.

Of course, nothing is to say that what is presented to the user is true. In fact, the AI itself cannot distinguish fact from truth but only generates responses according to direction and only based on whatever the AI has been fed. This leaves plenty of scope for the misrepresentation of the truth and can make the world believe outright lies. AI, therefore, can easily be used to impose control, whether it is upon a state, the subjects under its rule, or even a foreign power.

The Real Threat of AI

What, then, is the real threat of AI? As we saw in the first article, large language models will not (cannot) evolve into artificial general intelligence as there is nothing about inductive sifting through large troves of (humanly) created information that will give rise to consciousness. To be frank, we haven’t even figured out what consciousness is, so to think that we will create it (or that it will somehow emerge from algorithms discovering statistical language correlations in existing texts) is quite hyperbolic. Artificial general intelligence is still hypothetical.

As we saw in the second article, there is also no economic threat from AI. It will not make humans economically superfluous and cause mass unemployment. AI is productive capital, which therefore has value to the extent that it serves consumers by contributing to the satisfaction of their wants. Misused AI is as valuable as a misused factory—it will tend to its scrap value. However, this doesn’t mean that AI will have no impact on the economy. It will, and already has, but it is not as big in the short-term as some fear, and it is likely bigger in the long-term than we expect.

No, the real threat is AI’s impact on information. This is in part because induction is an inappropriate source of knowledge—truth and fact are not a matter of frequency or statistical probabilities. The evidence and theories of Nicolaus Copernicus and Galileo Galilei would get weeded out as improbable (false) by an AI trained on all the (best and brightest) writings on geocentrism at the time. There is no progress and no learning of new truths if we trust only historical theories and presentations of fact.

However, this problem can probably be overcome by clever programming (meaning implementing rules—and fact-based limitations—to the induction problem), at least to some extent. The greater problem is the corruption of what AI presents: the misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation that its creators and administrators, as well as governments and pressure groups, direct it to create as a means of controlling or steering public opinion or knowledge.

This is the real danger that the now-famous open letter, signed by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and others, pointed to:

“Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?”

Other than the economically illiterate reference to “automat[ing] away all the jobs,” the warning is well-taken. AI will not Terminator-like start to hate us and attempt to exterminate mankind. It will not make us all into biological batteries, as in The Matrix. However, it will—especially when corrupted—misinform and mislead us, create chaos, and potentially make our lives “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 06:30

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‘Excess Mortality Skyrocketed’: Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack ‘Criminal’ COVID Response

‘Excess Mortality Skyrocketed’: Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack ‘Criminal’ COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded…

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'Excess Mortality Skyrocketed': Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack 'Criminal' COVID Response

As the global pandemic unfolded, government-funded experimental vaccines were hastily developed for a virus which primarily killed the old and fat (and those with other obvious comorbidities), and an aggressive, global campaign to coerce billions into injecting them ensued.

Then there were the lockdowns - with some countries (New Zealand, for example) building internment camps for those who tested positive for Covid-19, and others such as China welding entire apartment buildings shut to trap people inside.

It was an egregious and unnecessary response to a virus that, while highly virulent, was survivable by the vast majority of the general population.

Oh, and the vaccines, which governments are still pushing, didn't work as advertised to the point where health officials changed the definition of "vaccine" multiple times.

Tucker Carlson recently sat down with Dr. Pierre Kory, a critical care specialist and vocal critic of vaccines. The two had a wide-ranging discussion, which included vaccine safety and efficacy, excess mortality, demographic impacts of the virus, big pharma, and the professional price Kory has paid for speaking out.

Keep reading below, or if you have roughly 50 minutes, watch it in its entirety for free on X:

"Do we have any real sense of what the cost, the physical cost to the country and world has been of those vaccines?" Carlson asked, kicking off the interview.

"I do think we have some understanding of the cost. I mean, I think, you know, you're aware of the work of of Ed Dowd, who's put together a team and looked, analytically at a lot of the epidemiologic data," Kory replied. "I mean, time with that vaccination rollout is when all of the numbers started going sideways, the excess mortality started to skyrocket."

When asked "what kind of death toll are we looking at?", Kory responded "...in 2023 alone, in the first nine months, we had what's called an excess mortality of 158,000 Americans," adding "But this is in 2023. I mean, we've  had Omicron now for two years, which is a mild variant. Not that many go to the hospital."

'Safe and Effective'

Tucker also asked Kory why the people who claimed the vaccine were "safe and effective" aren't being held criminally liable for abetting the "killing of all these Americans," to which Kory replied: "It’s my kind of belief, looking back, that [safe and effective] was a predetermined conclusion. There was no data to support that, but it was agreed upon that it would be presented as safe and effective."

Carlson and Kory then discussed the different segments of the population that experienced vaccine side effects, with Kory noting an "explosion in dying in the youngest and healthiest sectors of society," adding "And why did the employed fare far worse than those that weren't? And this particularly white collar, white collar, more than gray collar, more than blue collar."

Kory also said that Big Pharma is 'terrified' of Vitamin D because it "threatens the disease model." As journalist The Vigilant Fox notes on X, "Vitamin D showed about a 60% effectiveness against the incidence of COVID-19 in randomized control trials," and "showed about 40-50% effectiveness in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 in observational studies."

Professional costs

Kory - while risking professional suicide by speaking out, has undoubtedly helped save countless lives by advocating for alternate treatments such as Ivermectin.

Kory shared his own experiences of job loss and censorship, highlighting the challenges of advocating for a more nuanced understanding of vaccine safety in an environment often resistant to dissenting voices.

"I wrote a book called The War on Ivermectin and the the genesis of that book," he said, adding "Not only is my expertise on Ivermectin and my vast clinical experience, but and I tell the story before, but I got an email, during this journey from a guy named William B Grant, who's a professor out in California, and he wrote to me this email just one day, my life was going totally sideways because our protocols focused on Ivermectin. I was using a lot in my practice, as were tens of thousands of doctors around the world, to really good benefits. And I was getting attacked, hit jobs in the media, and he wrote me this email on and he said, Dear Dr. Kory, what they're doing to Ivermectin, they've been doing to vitamin D for decades..."

"And it's got five tactics. And these are the five tactics that all industries employ when science emerges, that's inconvenient to their interests. And so I'm just going to give you an example. Ivermectin science was extremely inconvenient to the interests of the pharmaceutical industrial complex. I mean, it threatened the vaccine campaign. It threatened vaccine hesitancy, which was public enemy number one. We know that, that everything, all the propaganda censorship was literally going after something called vaccine hesitancy."

Money makes the world go 'round

Carlson then hit on perhaps the most devious aspect of the relationship between drug companies and the medical establishment, and how special interests completely taint science to the point where public distrust of institutions has spiked in recent years.

"I think all of it starts at the level the medical journals," said Kory. "Because once you have something established in the medical journals as a, let's say, a proven fact or a generally accepted consensus, consensus comes out of the journals."

"I have dozens of rejection letters from investigators around the world who did good trials on ivermectin, tried to publish it. No thank you, no thank you, no thank you. And then the ones that do get in all purportedly prove that ivermectin didn't work," Kory continued.

"So and then when you look at the ones that actually got in and this is where like probably my biggest estrangement and why I don't recognize science and don't trust it anymore, is the trials that flew to publication in the top journals in the world were so brazenly manipulated and corrupted in the design and conduct in, many of us wrote about it. But they flew to publication, and then every time they were published, you saw these huge PR campaigns in the media. New York Times, Boston Globe, L.A. times, ivermectin doesn't work. Latest high quality, rigorous study says. I'm sitting here in my office watching these lies just ripple throughout the media sphere based on fraudulent studies published in the top journals. And that's that's that has changed. Now that's why I say I'm estranged and I don't know what to trust anymore."

Vaccine Injuries

Carlson asked Kory about his clinical experience with vaccine injuries.

"So how this is how I divide, this is just kind of my perception of vaccine injury is that when I use the term vaccine injury, I'm usually referring to what I call a single organ problem, like pericarditis, myocarditis, stroke, something like that. An autoimmune disease," he replied.

"What I specialize in my practice, is I treat patients with what we call a long Covid long vaxx. It's the same disease, just different triggers, right? One is triggered by Covid, the other one is triggered by the spike protein from the vaccine. Much more common is long vax. The only real differences between the two conditions is that the vaccinated are, on average, sicker and more disabled than the long Covids, with some pretty prominent exceptions to that."

Watch the entire interview above, and you can support Tucker Carlson's endeavors by joining the Tucker Carlson Network here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 16:20

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Government

For-profit nursing homes are cutting corners on safety and draining resources with financial shenanigans − especially at midsize chains that dodge public scrutiny

Owners of midsize nursing home chains drain billions from facilities, hiding behind opaque accounting practices and harming the elderly as government,…

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The care at Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing was abysmal when state inspectors filed their survey report of the Kentucky facility on July 3, 2021.

Residents wandered the halls in a facility that can house up to 250 people, yelling at each other and stealing blankets. One resident beat a roommate with a stick, causing bruising and skin tears. Another was found in bed with a broken finger and a bloody forehead gash. That person was allowed to roam and enter the beds of other residents. In another case, there was sexual touching in the dayroom between residents, according to the report.

Meals were served from filthy meal carts on plastic foam trays, and residents struggled to cut their food with dull plastic cutlery. Broken tiles lined showers, and a mysterious black gunk marred the floors. The director of housekeeping reported that the dining room was unsanitary. Overall, there was a critical lack of training, staff and supervision.

The inspectors tagged Landmark as deficient in 29 areas, including six that put residents in immediate jeopardy of serious harm and three where actual harm was found. The issues were so severe that the government slapped Landmark with a fine of over $319,000more than 29 times the average for a nursing home in 2021 − and suspended payments to the home from federal Medicaid and Medicare funds.

This excerpt from the July 3, 2021, state inspection report of Landmark of Louisville Rehabilitation and Nursing includes an interview with a nurse who found an injured resident. New York State attorney general's office

Persistent problems

But problems persisted. Five months later, inspectors levied six additional deficiencies of immediate jeopardy − the highest level − including more sexual abuse among residents and a certified nursing assistant pushing someone down, bruising the person’s back and hip.

Landmark is just one of the 58 facilities run by parent company Infinity Healthcare Management across five states. The government issued penalties to the company almost 4½ times the national average, according to bimonthly data that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services first started to make available in late 2022. All told, Infinity paid nearly $10 million in fines since 2021, the highest among nursing home chains with fewer than 100 facilities.

Infinity Healthcare Management and its executives did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Such sanctions are nothing new for Infinity or other for-profit nursing home chains that have dominated an industry long known for cutting corners in pursuit of profits for private owners. But this race to the bottom to extract profits is accelerating despite demands by government officials, health care experts and advocacy groups to protect the nation’s most vulnerable citizens.

To uncover the reasons why, The Conversation’s investigative unit Inquiry delved into the nursing home industry, where for-profit facilities make up more than 72% of the nation’s nearly 14,900 facilities. The probe, which paired an academic expert with an investigative reporter, used the most recent government data on ownership, facility information and penalties, combined with CMS data on affiliated entities for nursing homes.

The investigation revealed an industry that places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, with low staffing and poor quality, often to the detriment of patient well-being. Operating under weak and poorly enforced regulations with financially insignificant penalties, the for-profit sector fosters an environment where corners are frequently cut, compromising the quality of care and endangering patient health. Meanwhile, owners make the facilities look less profitable by siphoning money from the homes through byzantine networks of interconnected corporations. Federal regulators have neglected the problem as each year likely billions of dollars are funneled out of nursing homes through related parties and into owners’ pockets.

More trouble at midsize

Analyzing newly released government data, our investigation found that these problems are most pronounced in nursing homes like Infinity − midsize chains that operate between 11 and 100 facilities. This subsection of the industry has higher average fines per home, lower overall quality ratings, and are more likely to be tagged with resident abuse compared with both the larger and smaller networks. Indeed, while such chains account for about 39% of all facilities, they operate 11 of the 15 most-fined facilities.

With few impediments, private investors who own the midsize chains have quietly swooped in to purchase underperforming homes, expanding their holdings even further as larger chains divest and close facilities. As a result of the industry’s churn of facility ownership, over one fifth of the country’s nursing facilities changed ownership between 2016 and 2021, four times more changes than hospitals.

A 2023 report by Good Jobs First, a nonprofit watchdog, noted that a dozen of these chains in the midsize range have doubled or tripled in size while racking up fines averaging over $100,000 per facility since 2018. But unlike the large, multistate chains with easily recognizable names, the midsize networks slip through without the same level of public scrutiny, The Conversation’s investigations unit found.

“They are really bad, but the names − we don’t know these names,” said Toby Edelman, senior policy attorney with the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit law organization.

“When we used to have those multistate chains, the facilities all had the same name, so you know what the quality is you’re getting,” she said. “It’s not that good − but at least you know what you’re getting.”

In response to The Conversation’s findings on nursing homes and request for an interview, a CMS spokesperson emailed a statement that said the CMS is “unwavering in its commitment to improve safety and quality of care for the more than 1.2 million residents receiving care in Medicare- and Medicaid-certified nursing homes.”

The statement pointed to data released by the oversight body on mergers, acquisitions, consolidations and changes of ownership in April 2023 along with additional ownership data released the following September. CMS also proposed a rule change that aims to increase transparency in nursing home ownership by collecting more information on facility owners and their affiliations.

“Our focus is on advancing implementable solutions that promote safe, high-quality care for residents and consider the challenging circumstances some long-term care facilities face,” the statement reads. “We believe the proposed requirements are achievable and necessary.”

CMS is slated to implement the disclosure rules in the fall and release the new data to the public later this year.

“We support transparency and accountability,” the American Health Care Association/National Center for Assisted Living, a trade organization representing the nursing home industry, wrote in response to The Conversation‘s request for comment. “But neither ownership nor line items on a budget sheet prove whether a nursing home is committed to its residents. Over the decades, we’ve found that strong organizations tend to have supportive and trusted leadership as well as a staff culture that empowers frontline caregivers to think critically and solve problems. These characteristics are not unique to a specific type or size of provider.”

It often takes years to improve a poor nursing home − or run one into the ground. The analysis of midsize chains shows that most owners have been associated with their current facilities for less than eight years, making it difficult to separate operators who have taken long-term investments in resident care from those who are looking to quickly extract money and resources before closing them down or moving on. These chains control roughly 41% of nursing home beds in the U.S., according to CMS’s provider data, making the lack of transparency especially ripe for abuse.

A churn of nursing home purchases even during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that investors view the sector as highly profitable, especially when staffing costs are kept low and fines for poor care can easily be covered by the money extracted from residents, their families and taxpayers.

“This is the model of their care: They come in, they understaff and they make their money,” said Sam Brooks, director of public policy at the Consumer Voice, a national resident advocacy organization. “Then they multiply it over a series of different facilities.”

Side-by-side pictures of different nursing home residents asleep with their heads near dishes of food
These pictures showing residents asleep in their food appeared in the 2022 New York attorney general’s lawsuit against The Villages of Orleans Health and Rehabilitation Center in Albion, N.Y. New York State attorney general's office

Investor race

The explosion of a billion-dollar private marketplace found its beginnings in government spending.

The adoption of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 set loose a race among investors to load up on nursing homes, with a surge in for-profit homes gaining momentum because of a reliable stream of government payouts. By 1972, a mere seven years after the inception of the programs, a whopping 106 companies had rushed to Wall Street to sell shares in nursing home companies. And little wonder: They pulled in profits through their ownership of 18% of the industry’s beds, securing about a third of the hefty $3.2 billion of government cash.

The 1990s saw substantial expansion in for-profit nursing home chains, marked by a wave of acquisitions and mergers. At the same time, increasing difficulties emerged in the model for publicly traded chains. Shareholders increasingly demanded rapid growth, and researchers have found that the publicly traded chains tried to appease that hunger by reducing nursing staff and cutting corners on other measures meant to improve quality and safety.

“I began to suspect a possibly inherent contradiction between publicly traded and other large investor-operated nursing home companies and the prerequisites for quality care,” Paul R. Willging, former chief lobbyist for the industry, wrote in a 2007 letter to the editor of The New York Times. “For many investors … earnings growth, quarter after quarter, is often paramount. Long-term investments in quality can work at cross purposes with a mandate for an unending progression of favorable earnings reports.”

One example of that clash can be found at the Ensign Group, founded in 1999 as a private chain of five facilities. Using a strategy of acquiring struggling nursing homes, the company went public in 2007 with more than 60 facilities. What followed was a year-after-year acquisition binge and a track record of growing profits almost every year. Yet the company kept staffing levels below the national average and levels recommended by experts. Its facilities had higher than average inspection deficiencies and higher COVID infection rates. Since 2021, it has racked up more than $6.5 million in penalties.

Ensign did not respond to requests for comment.

Even with that kind of expense cutting, not all publicly traded nursing homes survived as the costs of providing poor care added up. Residents sued over mistreatment. Legal fees and settlements ate into profits, shareholders grumbled, and executives searched for a way out of this Catch-22.

Recognizing the long-term potential for profit growth, private investors snapped up publicly traded for-profit chains, reducing the previous levels of public transparency and oversight. Between 2000 and 2017, 1,674 nursing homes were acquired by private-equity firms in 128 unique deals out of 18,485 facilities. But the same poor-quality problems persisted. Research shows that after snagging a big chain, private investors tended to follow the same playbook: They rebrand the company, increase corporate control and dump unprofitable homes to other investment groups willing to take shortcuts for profit.

Multiple academic studies show the results, highlighting the lower staffing and quality in for-profit homes compared with nonprofits and government-run facilities. Elderly residents staying long term in nursing homes owned by private investment groups experienced a significant uptick in trips to the emergency department and hospitalizations between 2013 and 2017, translating into higher costs for Medicare.

Overall, private-equity investors wreak havoc on nursing homes, slashing registered nurse hours per resident day by 12%, outpacing other for-profit facilities. The aftermath is grim, with a daunting 14% surge in the deficiency score index, a standardized metric for determining issues with facilities, according to a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services report.

The human toll comes in death and suffering. A study updated in 2023 by the National Bureau of Economic Research calculated that 22,500 additional deaths over a 12-year span were attributable to private-equity ownership, equating to about 172,400 lost life years. The calculations also showed that private-equity ownership was responsible for a 6.2% reduction in mobility, an 8.5% increase in ulcer development and a 10.5% uptick in pain intensity.

Hiding in complexity

Exposing the identities of who should be held responsible for such anguish poses a formidable task. Private investors in nursing home chains often employ a convoluted system of limited liability corporations, related companies and family relationships to obscure who controls the nursing homes.

These adjustments are crafted to minimize liability, capitalize on favorable tax policies, diminish regulatory scrutiny and disguise nursing home profitability. In this investigation, entities at every level of involvement with a nursing home denied ownership, even though the same people controlled each organization.

A rule put in place in 2023 by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires the identification of all private-equity and real estate investment trust investors in a facility and the release of all related party names. But this hasn’t been enough to surface the players and relationships. More than half of ownership data provided to CMS is incomplete across all facilities, according to a March 2024 analysis of the newly released data.

Complicated graphic with 21 intertwined items
Nursing home investors drained more than $18 million out of a single facility through a complex web of related party transactions. New York State attorney general's office

Even the land under the nursing home is often owned by someone else. In 2021, publicly traded or private real estate investment trusts held a sizable chunk of the approximately $120 billion of nursing home real estate. As with homes owned by private-equity investors, quality measures collapse after REITs get involved, with facilities witnessing a 7% decline in registered nurses’ hours per resident day and an alarming 14% ascent in the deficiency score index. It’s a blatant pattern of disruption, leaving facilities and care standards in a dire state.

Part of that quality collapse comes from the way these investment entities make their money. REITs and their owners can drain cash out of the nursing homes in a number of different ways. The standard tactic for grabbing the money is known as a triple-net lease, where the REIT buys the property then leases it back to the nursing home, often at exorbitant rates. Although the nursing home then lacks possession of the property, it still gets slammed with costs typically shouldered by an owner − real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance and more. Topping it off, the facilities then must typically pay annual rent hikes.

A second tactic that REITs use involves a contracting façade that serves no purpose other than enriching the owners of the trusts. Since triple-net lease agreements prohibit REITs from taking profits from operating the facilities, the investors create a subsidiary to get past that hurdle. The subsidiary then contracts with a nursing home operator − often owned or controlled by another related party − and then demands a fee for providing operational guidance. The use of REITs for near-risk-free profits from nursing homes has proven to be an ever-growing technique, and the midsize chains, which our investigation found generally provided the worst care, grew in their reliance on REITs during the pandemic.

“When these REITs start coming in … nursing homes are saddled with these enormous rents, and then they wind up going out of business,” said Richard Mollot, executive director of the Long-Term Care Community Coalition, a nonprofit organization that advocates for better care at nursing homes. “It’s no longer a viable facility.”

The churn of nursing home purchases by midsize chains underscores investors’ perception of the sector’s profitability, particularly when staffing expenses are minimized and penalties for subpar care can be offset by money extracted through related transactions and payments from residents, their families and taxpayers. Lawsuits can drag out over years, and in the worst case, if a facility is forced to close, its land and other assets can be sold to minimize the financial loss.

Take Brius Healthcare, a name that resonates with a disturbing cadence in the world of nursing home ownership. A search of the federal database for nursing home ownership and penalties shows that Brius was responsible for 32 facilities as of the start of 2024, but the true number is closer to 80, according to BriusWatch.org, which tracks violations. At the helm of this still midsize network stands Shlomo Rechnitz, who became a billionaire in part by siphoning from government payments to his facilities scattered across California, according to a federal and state lawsuit.

In lawsuits and regulators’ criticisms, Rechnitz’s homes have been associated with tales of abuse, as well as several lawsuits alleging terrible care. The track record was so bad that, in the summer of 2014, then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris filed an emergency motion to block Rechnitz from acquiring 19 facilities, writing that he was “a serial violator of rules within the skilled nursing industry” and was “not qualified to assume such an important role.”

Yet, Rechnitz’s empire in California surged forward, scooping up more facilities that drained hundreds of millions of federal and state funds as they racked up pain and profit. The narrative played out at Windsor Redding Care Center in Redding, California. Rechnitz bought it from a competing nursing home chain and attempted to obtain a license to operate the facility. But in 2016, the California Department of Public Health refused the application, citing a staggering 265 federal regulatory violations across his other nursing homes over just three years.

According to court filings, Rechnitz formed a joint venture with other investors who in turn held the license. Rechnitz, through the Brius joint venture, became the unlicensed owner and operator of Windsor Redding.

Brius carved away at expenses, slashing staff and other care necessities, according to a 2022 California lawsuit. One resident was left to sit in her urine and feces for hours at a time. Overwhelmed staff often did not respond to her call light, so once she instead climbed out of bed unassisted, fell and fractured her hip. Other negligence led to pressure ulcers, and when she was finally transferred to a hospital, she was suffering from sepsis. She was not alone in her suffering. Numerous other residents experienced an unrelenting litany of injuries and illnesses, including pressure ulcers, urinary tract infections from poor hygiene, falls, and skin damage from excess moisture, according to the lawsuit.

In 2023, California moved forward with licensing two dozen of Rechnitz’s facilities with an agreement that included a two-year monitoring period, right before statewide reforms were set to take effect. The reforms don’t prevent existing owners like Rechnitz from continuing to run a nursing home without a license, but they do prevent new operators from doing so.

“We’re seeing more of that, I think, where you have a proliferation of really bad operators that keep being provided homes,” said Brooks, the director of public policy at the Consumer Voice. “There’s just so much money to be made here for unscrupulous people, and it just happens all the time.”

Rechnitz did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Bruis also did not respond.

Perhaps no other chain showcases the havoc that can be caused by one individual’s acquisition of multiple nursing homes than Skyline Health Care. The company’s owner, Joseph Schwartz, parlayed the sale of his insurance business into ownership of 90 facilities between mid-2016 and December 2017, according to a federal indictment. He ran the company out of an office above a New Jersey pizzeria and at its peak managed facilities in 11 states.

Schwartz went all-in on cost cutting, and by early 2018, residents were suffering from the shortage of staff. The company wasn’t paying its bills or its workers. More than a dozen lawsuits piled up. Last year, Schwartz was arrested and faced charges in federal district court in New Jersey for his role in a $38 million payroll tax scheme. In 2024, Schwartz pleaded guilty to his role in the fraud scheme. He is awaiting sentencing, where he faces a year in prison along with paying at least $5 million in restitution.

Skyline collapsed and disrupted thousands of lives. Some states took over facilities; others closed, forcing residents to relocate and throwing families into chaos. The case also highlights the ease with which some bad operators can snap up nursing homes with little difficulty, with federal and state governments allowing ownership changes with little or no review.

Schwartz’s lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.

Not that nursing homes have much to fear in the public perception of their reputation for quality. CMS uses what is known as the Five-Star Quality Rating System, designed to help consumers compare nursing homes to find one that provides good care. Theoretically, nursing homes with five-star ratings are supposed to be exceptional, while those with one-star ratings are deemed the worst. But research shows that nursing homes can game the system, with the result that a top star rating might reflect little more than a facility’s willingness to cheat.

A star rating is composed of three parts: The score from a government inspection and the facility’s self-reports of staffing and quality. This means that what the nursing homes say about themselves can boost the star rating of facilities even if they have poor inspection results.

Multiple studies have highlighted a concerning trend: Some nursing homes, especially for-profit ones, inflate their self-reported measures, resulting in a disconnect from actual inspection findings. Notably, research suggests that for-profit nursing homes, driven by significant financial motives, are more likely to engage in this practice of inflating their self-reported assessments.

At bottom, the elderly and their families seeking quality care unknowingly find themselves in an impossible situation with for-profit nursing homes: Those facilities tend to provide the worst quality, and the only measure available for consumers to determine where they will be treated well can be rigged. The result is the transformation of an industry meant to care for the most vulnerable into a profit-driven circus.

Close-up of an elderly woman's head leaning on her hand
The for-profit nursing home sector is growing, and it places a premium on cost cutting and big profits, which has led to low staffing and patient neglect and mistreatment. picture alliance via Getty Images

The pandemic

Nothing more clearly exposed the problems rampant in nursing homes than the pandemic. Throughout that time, nursing homes reported that almost 2 million residents had infections and 170,000 died.

No one should have been surprised by the mass death in nursing homes − the warning signs of what was to come had been visible for years. Between 2013 and 2017, infection control was the most frequently cited deficiency in nursing homes, with 40% of facilities cited each year and 82% cited at least once in the five-year period. Almost half were cited over multiple consecutive years for these deficiencies − if fixed, one of the big causes of the widespread transmission of COVID in these facilities would have been eliminated.

But shortly after coming into office in 2017, the Trump administration weakened what was already a deteriorating system to regulate nursing homes. The administration directed regulators to issue one-time fines against nursing homes for violations of federal rules rather than for the full time they were out of compliance. This shift meant that even nursing homes with severe infractions lasting weeks were exempted from fines surpassing the maximum per-instance penalty of $20,965.

Even that near-worthless level of regulation was not feeble enough for the industry, so lobbyists pressed for less. In response, just a few months before COVID emerged in China, the Trump administration implemented new regulations that effectively abolished a mandate for each to hire a full-time infection control expert, instead recommending outside consultants for the job.

The perfect storm had been reached, with no experts required to be on site, prepared to combat any infection outbreaks. On Jan. 20, 2020 − just 186 days after the change in rules on infection control − the CDC reported that the first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID had been found at a nursing home in Washington state.

The least prepared in this explosion of disease were the for-profit nursing homes, compared with nonprofit and government facilities. Research from the University of California at San Francisco found those facilities were linked to higher numbers of COVID cases. For-profits not only had fewer nurses on staff but also high numbers of infection-control deficiencies and lower compliance with health regulations.

Even as the United States went through the crisis, some owners of midsize chains continued snapping up nursing homes. For example, two Brooklyn businessmen named Simcha Hyman and Naftali Zanziper were going on a nursing home buying spree through their private-equity company, the Portopiccolo Group. Despite poor ratings in their previously owned facilities, nothing blocked the acquisitions.

One such facility was a struggling nursing home in North Carolina now known as The Citadel Salisbury. Following the traditional pattern forged by private investors in the industry, the new owners set up a convoluted network of business entities and then used them to charge the nursing home for services and property. A 2021 federal lawsuit of many plaintiffs claimed that they deliberately kept the facility understaffed and undersupplied to maximize profit.

Within months of the first case of COVID reported in America, The Citadel Salisbury experienced the largest nursing home outbreak in the state. The situation was so dire that on April 20, 2020, the local medical director of the emergency room took to the local newspaper to express his distress, revealing that he had pressed the facility’s leadership and the local health department to address the known shortcomings.

The situation was “a blueprint for exactly what not to do in a crisis,” medical director John Bream wrote. “Patients died at the Citadel without family members being notified. Families were denied the ability to have one last meaningful interaction with their family. Employees were wrongly denied personal protective equipment. There has been no transparency.”

After a series of scathing inspection reports, the facility finally closed in the spring of 2022. As for the federal lawsuit, court documents show that a tentative agreement was reached in 2023. But the case dragged out for nearly three years, and one of the plaintiffs, Sybil Rummage, died while seeking accountability through the court.

Still, the pandemic had been a time of great success for Hyman and Zanziper. At the end of 2020, they owned more than 70 facilities. By 2021, their portfolio had exploded to more than 120. Now, according to data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Hyman and Zanziper are associated with at least 131 facilities and have the highest amount of total fines recorded by the agency for affiliated entities, totaling nearly $12 million since 2021. And their average fine per facility, as calculated by CMS, is more than twice the national average at almost $90,000.

In a written statement, Portopiccolo Group spokesperson John Collins disputed that the facilities had skimped on care and argued that they were not managed by the firm. “We hire experienced, local health care teams who are in charge of making all on-the-ground decisions and are committed to putting residents first.” He added that the number of facilities given by CMS was inaccurate but declined to say how many are connected to its network of affiliates or owned by Hyman and Zanziper.

With the nearly 170,000 resident deaths from COVID and many related fatalities from isolation and neglect in nursing homes, in February 2022 President Biden announced an initiative aimed at improving the industry. In addition to promising to set a minimum staffing standard, the initiative is focused on improving ownership and financial transparency.

“As Wall Street firms take over more nursing homes, quality in those homes has gone down and costs have gone up. That ends on my watch,” Biden said during his 2022 State of the Union address. “Medicare is going to set higher standards for nursing homes and make sure your loved ones get the care they deserve and expect.”

President Biden sitting at a desk signing with a crowd gathered around him
President Joe Biden signed an executive order on April 18, 2023, that directed the secretary of health and human services to consider actions that would build on nursing home minimum staffing standards and improve staff retention. Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Still, the current trajectory of actions appears to fall short of what’s needed. While penalties against facilities have sharply increased under Biden, some of the Trump administration’s weak regulations have not been replaced.

A rule proposed by CMS in September 2023 and released for review in March 2024 would require states to report what percentage of Medicaid funding is used to pay direct care workers and support staff and would require an RN on duty 24/7. It would also require a minimum of three hours of skilled staffing care per patient per day. But the three-hour minimum is substantially lower than the 4.1 hours of skilled staffing for nursing home residents suggested by CMS over two decades ago.

The requirements are also lower than the 3.8 average nursing staff hours already employed by U.S. facilities.

The current administration has also let stand the Trump administration reversal of an Obama rule that banned binding arbitration agreements in nursing homes.

It breaks a village

The Villages of Orleans Health and Rehabilitation Center in Albion, New York, was, by any reasonable measure, broken. Court records show that on some days there was no nurse and no medication for the more than 100 elderly residents. Underpaid staff spent their own cash for soap to keep residents clean. At times, the home didn’t feed its frail occupants.

Meanwhile, according to a 2022 lawsuit filed by the New York attorney general, riches were siphoned out of the nursing home and into the pockets of the official owner, Bernard Fuchs, as well as assorted friends, business associates and family. The lawsuit says $18.7 million flowed from the facility to entities owned by a group of men who controlled the Village’s operations.

Although these men own various nursing homes, Medicare records show few connections between them, despite them all being investors in Comprehensive Healthcare Management, which provided administrative services to the Villages. Either they or their families were also owners of Telegraph Realty, which leased what was once the Villages’ own property back to the facility at rates the New York attorney general deemed exorbitant, predatory and a sham.

So it goes in the world of nursing home ownership, where overlapping entities and investors obscure the interrelationships between them to such a degree that Medicare itself is never quite sure who owns what.

Glenn Jones, a lawyer representing Comprehensive Healthcare Management, declined to comment on the pending litigation, but he forwarded a court document his law firm filed that labels the allegations brought by the New York attorney general “unfounded” and reliant on “a mere fraction” of its residents.

Side-by-side pictures of a man in a wheelchair with glasses in November, 2019 and the same man looking less alert, unshaven and with an eye wound in December, 2019
These pictures of the same resident one month apart at the Holliswood Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare in Queens appeared in a 2023 New York attorney general lawsuit against 13 LLCs and 14 individuals. The group owns multiple nursing homes and allegedly neglected residents, while owners siphoned Medicare and Medicaid money into their own pockets. New York attorney general's office

The shadowy structure of ownership and related party transactions plays an enormous role in how investors enrich themselves, even as the nursing homes they control struggle financially. Compounding the issue, the figures reported by nursing homes regarding payments to related parties frequently diverge from the disclosures made by the related parties themselves.

As an illustration of the problems, consider Pruitt Health, a midsize chain with 87 nursing homes spread across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Florida that had low overall federal quality ratings and about $2 million in penalties. A report by The National Consumer Voice For Quality Long-Term Care, a consumer advocacy group, shows that Pruitt disclosed general related party costs nearing $482 million from 2018 to 2020. Yet in that same time frame, Pruitt reported payments to specific related parties amounting to about $570 million, indicating a $90 million excess. Its federal disclosures offer no explanation for the discrepancy. Meanwhile, the company reported $77 million in overall losses on its homes.

The same pattern holds in the major chains such as the Cleveland, Tennessee-based Life Care Centers of America, which operates roughly 200 nursing homes across 27 states, according to the report. Life Care’s financial disbursements are fed into a diverse spectrum of related entities, including management, staffing, insurance and therapy companies, all firmly under the umbrella of the organization’s ownership. In fiscal year 2018, the financial commitment to these affiliated entities reached $386,449,502; over the three-year period from 2018 to 2020, Life Care’s documented payments to such parties hit an eye-popping $1.25 billion.

Pruitt Health and Life Care Centers did not respond to requests for comment.

Overall, 77% of US nursing homes reported $11 billion in related-party transactions in 2019 − nearly 10% of total net revenues − but the data is unaudited and unverified. The facilities are not required to provide any details of what specific services were provided by the related parties, or what were the specific profits and administrative costs, creating a lack of transparency regarding expenses that are ambiguously categorized under generic labels such as “maintenance.” Significantly, there is no mandate to disclose whether any of these costs exceed fair market value.

What that means is that nursing home owners can profit handsomely through related parties even if their facilities are being hit with repeated fines for providing substandard care.

“What we would consider to be a big penalty really doesn’t matter because there’s so much money coming in,” said Mollot of the Long-Term Care Community Coalition. “If the facility fails, so what? It doesn’t matter. They pulled out the resources.’’

Hiding profit

Ultimately, experts say, this ability to drain cash out of nursing homes makes it almost impossible for anyone to assess the profitability of these facilities based on their public financial filings, known as cost reports.

"The profit margins (for nursing homes) also should be taken with a grain of salt in the cost reports,” said Dr. R. Tamara Konetzka, a University of Chicago professor of public health sciences, at a recent meeting of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission. “If you sell the real estate to a REIT or to some other entity, and you pay sort of inflated rent back to make your profit margins look lower, and then you recoup that profit because it’s a related party, we’re not going to find that in the cost reports.”

That ability to hide profits is key to nursing homes’ ability to block regulations to improve quality of care and to demand greater government payments. For decades, the industry’s refrain has been that cuts in reimbursements or requirements to increase staffing will drive facilities into bankruptcy; already, they claim, half of all nursing homes are teetering on the edge of collapse, the result, they say, of inadequate Medicaid rates. All in all, the industry reports that less than 3% of their revenue goes to earnings.

But that does not include any of the revenue pulled out of the homes to boost profits of related parties controlled by the same owners pleading poverty. And this tactic is only one of several ways that the nursing home industry disguises its true profits, giving it the power to plead poverty to an unknowing government.

Under the regulations, only certain nursing home expenses are reimbursable, such as money spent for care. Many others − unreasonable payments to the headquarters of chains, luxury items, and fees for lobbyists and lawyers − are disallowed after Medicare reviews the cost reports. But by that time, the government has already reimbursed the nursing homes for those expenses − and none of those revenues have to be returned.

Data indicates that owners also profit by overcharging nursing homes for services and leases provided by related entities. A March 2024 study from Lehigh University and the University of California, Los Angeles shows that costs were inflated when nursing home owners changed from independent contractors to businesses owned or controlled directly or indirectly by the same people. Overall, spending on real estate increased 20.4%, and spending on management increased 24.6% when the businesses were affiliated, the research showed.

Nursing homes also claim that noncash depreciation cuts into their profits. Those expenses, which show up only in accounting ledgers, assume that assets such as equipment and facilities are gradually decreasing in value and ultimately will need to be replaced.

That might be reasonable if the chains purchased new items once their value depreciated to zero, but that is not always true. A 2004 report by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission found that the depreciation claimed by health care companies, including nursing homes, may not reflect actual capital expenditures or the actual market value.

If disallowed expenses and noncash depreciation were not included, profit margins for the nursing home industry would jump to 8.8%, far more than the 3% it claims. And given that these numbers all come from nursing home cost reports submitted to the government, they may underestimate the profits even more. Audited cost reports are not required, and the Government Accountability Office has found that CMS does little to ensure the numbers are correct and complete.

This lack of basic oversight essentially gives dishonest nursing home owners the power to grab more money from Medicare and Medicaid while being empowered to claim that their financials prove they need more.

“They face no repercussions,” Brooks of Consumer Voice said, commenting on the current state of nursing home operations and their unscrupulous owners. “That’s why these people are here. It’s a bonanza to them.”

Ultimately, experts say, finding ways to force nursing homes to provide quality care has remained elusive. Michael Gelder, former senior health policy adviser to then-Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois, learned that brutal lesson in 2010 as head of a task force formed by Quinn to investigate nursing home quality. That group successfully pushed a new law, but Gelder now says his success failed to protect this country’s most vulnerable citizens.

“I was perhaps naively convinced that someone like myself being in the right place at the right time with enough resources could really fix this problem,” he said. “I think we did the absolute best we could, and the best that had ever been done in modern history up to that point. But it wasn’t enough. It’s a battle every generation has to fight.”

Click here to learn more about how some existing tools can address problems with for-profit nursing homes.

Sean Campbell is an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia University and a contributing writer at the Garrison Project, an independent news organization that focuses on mass incarceration and criminal justice.

Harrington is an advisory board member of the nonprofit Veteran's Health Policy Institute and a board member of the nonprofit Center for Health Information and Policy. Harrington served as an expert witness on nursing home litigation cases by residents against facilities owned or operated by Brius and Shlomo Rechnitz in the past and in 2022. She also served as an expert witness in a case against The Citadel Salisbury in North Carolina in 2021.

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