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Futures Fall As Europe Slides, Chinese Media Talks Back Rally

Futures Fall As Europe Slides, Chinese Media Talks Back Rally

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Futures Fall As Europe Slides, Chinese Media Talks Back Rally Tyler Durden Tue, 07/07/2020 - 08:01

One day after a torrid ramp in Chinese stocks sent US futures surging and the Nasdaq hit a fresh all time high, on Tuesday Emini index futures slipped following the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s five-day rally, as European stocks slumped after officials warned the economy will take longer to recover and Germany reported weaker-than-expected industrial data, the rally in China fizzled after officials talked back their previous urges to buy stocks, and investors weighed the risks to the conomy from tens of thousands of new coronavirus cases nationwide.

On Monday, Miami became the latest U.S. coronavirus hot spot to roll back its reopening while Texas registered an all-time high in the number of people hospitalized at any one moment with COVID-19 for the eight straight day. Travel-related stocks fell in premarket trading. United Airlines Holdings and American Airlines were down 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings also dropped about 3% each, even as they announced a joint task force to help develop safety standards for restarting their businesses.

The latest virus news dented bullish sentiment after a surprise surge in the U.S. Services ISM and record job additions in June were among the upbeat data recently that have bolstered views that an economic recovery is underway, helping the Nasdaq close at a record level on Monday and pushing S&P 500 about 45% from its March lows.

Sentiment also reversed in Europe, where all but one of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell, with real estate and technology shares bearing the brunt of the selling after Germany reported far weaker than expected industrial production data. Bayer AG lost 5.5% after its plan for handling future Roundup cancer claims hit a snag.

On the other end, BMW rose as much as 1.4%, and was the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index, after posting 17% jump in 2Q car sales in China. The index was the only positive segment on broader European share gauge; other gainers as of 12:01pm in Paris include Valeo +1.1%, Faurecia +0.8%, Fiat Chrysler +0.6%, Continental AG +0.5%.

The European Commission gave its starkest warning yet about the impact of the pandemic, with the divergences between richer and poorer countries opening up even further than projected two months ago. Officials now forecast a contraction of 8.7% in the euro area this year, a full percentage point deeper than previously predicted.

Earlier in Asia, while Chinese stocks powered ahead for a sixth day, the rally was at a far slower pace, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising just 0.4% after the 5.7% surge one day earlier, with Maoye Commercial Co Ltd and Hangzhou Jiebai Group posting the biggest advances.

China's rally fizzled after all four major state-owned financial media outlets had front page commentaries on the stock market today, with all articles saying largely the same - calls on market participants to be rational. Most Asian stocks fell, led by energy and utilities, after rising in the last session, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and South Korea's Kospi Index turning red. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 111% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 0.3%, with Tosei and Miyakoshi falling the most.

In rates, Treasuries were largely unchanged across the long-end of the curve following mixed performance of Asia stocks; further rally halted with bunds underperforming ahead of EU4b 5-year EFSF deal pricing and looming Irish supply this week. Treasuries also face supply pressure starting with 3-year note auction at 1pm ET, ahead of 10- and 30-year sales to round off the week. Treasury yields were lower by ~1bp across 20- to 3-year sector, little change rest of the curve; 10-year yields around 0.675% while bunds underperform by 1.5bp, gilts trade broadly inline.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index snapped a five-day losing streak as the global equity rally paused on Tuesday after a strong start to the week. China’s offshore yuan erased gains after briefly strengthening past the 7 per dollar level for the first time since March 17. The offshore yuan weakened 0.14% as of 6:34 p.m. in Hong Kong. It rose as much as 0.24% to 6.9966 against the greenback in morning session, as Chinese stocks rallied before paring gains in afternoon trade. The currency traded little changed in the onshore market after adding 0.27% earlier Tuesday. A rebounding dollar and renewed concerns about the pandemic after an Australian state announced a lockdown contributed to the yuan’s weakening this afternoon, said Gao Qi, an Asian FX strategist at Scotiabank. But the retreat will likely be a “one-off event,” as bullish sentiment in the stock market will continue to support demand for the currency, he said. “The yuan should advance in the coming sessions to reach 6.90 by the end of July,” he said.

The Australian dollar swung lower after the country’s second- most populous state announced a six-week lockdown to control a wave of infections. Leveraged funds initiated short positions ahead of the lock-down announcement, a trader said, with losses extending after Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews announced a longer-than- expected shutdown. “The local media was suggesting four weeks prior to the announcement, and now it’s six weeks,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “A justifiable knee jerk, albeit small, negative reaction.”

In commodities, oil dropped and iron ore futures jumped. WTI and Brent crude futures remained on the backfoot, if off lows, as the complex tracks broader market sentiment. Furthermore, the European Commission cutting the EZ and EU growth forecasts added to the bearish factors. WTI Aug resides just above the USD 40/bbl (vs. high 40.79/bbl) having tested the level earlier in the session, whilst Brent Sep relinquished its USD 43/bbl (vs. high 43.19/bbl) handle before finding mild support at the psychological 42.50/bbl. Looking ahead, in the absence of virus/China related headlines, participants will be eyeing the release of the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for any potential revisions to global oil demand given the resurging COVID-19 cases, thereafter, focus will turn to the Private Inventory numbers for short-term volatility. Elsewhere, spot gold has fallen victim to the rising Buck as the yellow metal slid from near-8yr highs of around USD 1787/oz to find some solace around the psychological USD 1775/oz. In terms of base metals, Shanghai copper hit a 2020 high amid supply woes coupled with hopes of a rebounding Chinese economy. Similarly, Dalian iron ore was underpinned by China optimism alongside doubts over the prospected of a recovery in Brazilian iron shipments.

 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,148.00
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 164.30
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 541.83
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 22,614.69
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,571.71
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 25,975.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,345.34
  • Sensex up 0.05% to 36,505.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.03% to 6,012.92
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,164.17
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 367.33
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to -0.448%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1277
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.113%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.414%
  • Brent futures down 1% to $42.69/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,777.09
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 97.03

Top Overnight News

  • Europe’s economy will suffer more than previously estimated this year and take longer to recover because of a slow easing of coronavirus restrictions, according to the bloc’s executive arm.
  • China’s equity market is firmly in the spotlight after an almost unprecedented rally that helped lift global stocks to a one-month high.
  • The amount of U.S. bonds and loans trading at distressed levels has increased for a second straight week as corporate borrowers potentially face another round of lockdowns amid a resurgence of the coronavirus.
  • France’s decision to give only temporary security approval for fifth-generation mobile equipment shows the government intends to gradually sideline Huawei Technologies Co., a majority party lawmaker said.

Asian equity markets were somewhat choppy as participants began to second guess the viability of the recent Chinese stocks surge which had already reverberated across global counterparts on Monday to lift all major indices on Wall Street and push the Nasdaq to a fresh record high. ASX 200 (U/C) swung between gains and losses as strength in the mining related sectors was initially offset by early weakness in energy, utilities and financials, while second wave fears concerning Australia’s 2nd largest city of Melbourne and the RBA policy announcement further added to the tentative tone. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) lagged after Household Spending data showed the largest decline on record and the KOSPI (-0.7%) also failed to hold on to early gains as the initial support in Samsung Electronics following a beat in preliminary Q2 results which eventually wore thin. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) both extended on the prior day’s stellar rally but are off their best levels with the momentum gradually dissipating amid several bearish factors such as another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and with Chinese press calling for rationality in the stock markets, while the recent headlines also continued to add to the ongoing China vs. the West narrative including the warning from China’s Ambassador to the UK that it will have to bear the consequences if it treats China as a hostile country. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher amid underperformance in Japanese stocks following the abysmal Household Spending data and with upside also briefly spurred by mostly firmer results at the 30yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Lebanon’s Economic Crisis Is Spinning Out of Control, Fast
  • Samsung’s Profit Beat May Precede Slowing Chip Sales Growth
  • Australia Warns Citizens They Risk ‘Arbitrary’ Arrest in China
  • SoftBank Hits 20-Year High With $68 Billion Climb Out of Nadir

European stocks have continued to bleed [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%], as the mostly positive APAC sentiment dissipated when European players entered the fray. Downside in futures was initially seen overnight as the optimism over China’s recent performance fizzled out amid rising reported cases, which led to the Australian State Premier imposing a six-week lockdown on Melbourne, whilst case numbers remained heightened in other parts of Asia. Furthermore, the European Commission cutting its 2020 and 2021 growth forecasts, due to less swift than expected reopening, only dampened the mood. As such, major bourses trade with broad-based losses of some 1%, but in the periphery, Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.3%) fares slightly better as losses in banking names were somewhat cushioned by reports the ECB's Funding to Italian Banks in June rose to EUR 345.226bln vs. EUR 290.963bln in May, although reports noted that the ECB is to consider asking banks to withhold dividend for longer. Sectors remain in negative territory with no clear risk-tone to be derived on that front as cyclicals and defensives remain mixed. Delving deeper into the sectors, a similar performance, but Travel & Leisure resides among the laggard amid the aforementioned dampened sentiment regarding reopening economies. In terms of individual movers, Wirecard (-14%) extended on losses, with reports also noting that payment group Mastercard was warned about Wirecard’s links to an alleged laundering network around four years ago. Micro Focus (-10.3%) holds its place as a laggard after reporting an impairment charge of USD 922.2mln in H1. Bayer (-7%) shares remain pressured after a U.S. judge questioned the Co’s proposed settlement to deal with future claims regarding its weedkiller. On the flip-side, BMW (+1.0%) nursed opening losses after a trading update in which, despite a H1 YY sales decline of 23%, noted that Q2 China sales have exceed the prior and are seeing initial signs of recovery in some markets as of end-Q2. Finally, in terms of commentary, Blackrock has downgraded US equities on risk of fading fiscal stimulus whilst upgrading Europe to overweight.

Top European News

  • Europe Sees Deeper Slump With Fresh Warning on Uneven Virus Hit
  • Hungary Posts Biggest Increase in Coronavirus Cases in a Month
  • France Begins to Sideline Huawei From Its Mobile Networks
  • Macron Picks a Government to Rebuild France’s Economy

In FX, a further erosion of bullish risk sentiment has helped the Dollar regain composure and its status as a safe haven following less pronounced gains in Chinese equities overnight and a more mixed session for APAC bourses overall. Hence, the index is back on the 97.000 handle from a low of 96.565 at one stage on Monday and extending recovery gains on the back of a much better than expected services ISM survey.

  • AUD - The Aussie is bearing the brunt of the turnaround in risk assets and heightened 2nd wave COVID-19 concerns as Melbourne extends anti-virus measures amidst another rise in cases, with Aud/Usd reversing sharply from just shy of the 0.6900 level towards 0.6920 alongside Usd/CNH bouncing from a fraction below 7.0000. For the record, no surprises from the RBA that reaffirmed wait-and-see guidance, but clearly the economic outlook will be adversely impacted by the aforementioned outbreak in the state of Victoria.
  • NZD/EUR/JPY/CAD/CHF/NOK/SEK/GBP - All unwinding more of their recent gains relative to the Greenback, as the Kiwi retreats from around 0.6580 to 0.6520 irrespective of a modest improvement in NZIER Q2 confidence, while the Euro has relinquished 1.1300+ status to test the resolve of decent option expiry interest between 1.1265-75 (1.5 bn). However, the Yen is still pivoting 107.50 and Loonie holding above 1.3600 post-weaker than forecast Japanese household spending data and pre-Canadian Ivey PMIs. Elsewhere, the Franc is hovering circa 0.9450 and 1.0650 vs the single currency, Eur/Nok is near 10.6500 in wake of a steeper decline in Norwegian manufacturing output and Eur/Sek is straddling 10.4500 even though Swedish ip and orders were mixed. Elsewhere, Cable has lost grip of 1.2500 yet again, albeit finding underlying bids ahead of 1.2450 and support some 10 pips below.
  • EM - Broad deterioration on the downturn in risk appetite, but the Rand underperforming following a more pronounced than anticipated fall in SA consumer morale.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures remain on the backfoot, albeit off lows, as the complex tracks broader market sentiment, as participants regain focus on rising COVID-19 infection rates which prompted the re-imposition of lockdown measures in some cities, whilst others see their gradual easing plans hindered. Furthermore, the European Commission cutting the EZ and EU growth forecasts added to the bearish factors. WTI Aug resides just above the USD 40/bbl (vs. high 40.79/bbl) having tested the level earlier in the session, whilst Brent Sep relinquished its USD 43/bbl (vs. high 43.19/bbl) handle before finding mild support at the psychological 42.50/bbl. Looking ahead, in the absence of virus/China related headlines, participants will be eyeing the release of the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for any potential revisions to global oil demand given the resurging COVID-19 cases, thereafter, focus will turn to the Private Inventory numbers for short-term volatility. Elsewhere, spot gold has fallen victim to the rising Buck as the yellow metal slid from near-8yr highs of around USD 1787/oz to find some solace around the psychological USD 1775/oz. In terms of base metals, Shanghai copper hit a 2020 high amid supply woes coupled with hopes of a rebounding Chinese economy. Similarly, Dalian iron ore was underpinned by China optimism alongside doubts over the prospected of a recovery in Brazilian iron shipments.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 4,500, prior 5,046
  • 9am: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Webinar on Economy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Quarles Makes Financial Stability Board Remarks
  • 2pm: Fed’s Daly and Barkin Takes Part in NABE Talk on Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was Sports Day yesterday at school and like all major sporting events at the moment it was behind closed doors. Maisie told us she won a race but wasn’t particularly specific as to which one. I’m hoping it was the straight sprint but it could obviously be the egg and spoon, beanbag, or wheelbarrow races. In practice over the last month she hasn’t come first in any of the races so I’m proud she’s a big match performer. No point wasting energy when it doesn’t matter. Hopefully lots of ice cream wasn’t on the banned substance list or the medal may eventually be stripped.

The main story in markets yesterday was a race towards a new record for the NASDAQ and a fifth successive rise for the S&P 500 for the first time since December. By the end of the session, the S&P was up +1.59%, with the NASDAQ (+2.21%) closing at an all-time high, something that caught the attention of President Trump, who tweeted about the fact not long after the US session opened. It was one of the quietest days in quite some time for the S&P. After the large overnight move, the index traded within a 27pt range the rest of the day compared to the 55pt average daily range over the last month. In fact, the S&P has only traded within a 27pt range for the entire day 4 other times since it was at all-time highs on February 19. The NASDAQ’s new record was assisted by Amazon, which rose by +5.77% to its own record high, with the company’s share price climbing above $3,000 for the first time thanks to an incredibly strong +65.44% YTD performance. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +1.58% at its highest level in nearly a month. Banks (+3.89%) and Autos (+2.56%) led the index higher, as there continues to be a strong value and cyclical theme to the European equity recovery.

The risk-on move was given some added fuel after the ISM non-manufacturing index from the US came in at a much stronger-than-expected 57.1 (vs. 50.2 consensus), a number that was above every estimate on Bloomberg’s survey. And this also comes after last week’s manufacturing ISM rose to 52.6. That said, it’s worth noting that the employment number was not as strong, at just 43.1 (up from May’s 31.8), and already the rise in cases in many US states has led to a reversal in the mobility data, which presents a serious downside risk when it comes to the economic recovery.

The last bit of fuel for yesterday’s US move was word out of Washington D.C. that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell foresees Congress passing another round of fiscal stimulus by the end of this month. The Senator had been fairly circumspect on wanting to see whether the economy needed further action before increasing federal spending, but signaled yesterday that it is indeed needed, saying “This is not over. We are seeing a resurgence in a lot of states… I think the country needs one last boost.” Senate Republicans have called a $3.5trl Democrat-sponsored bill that passed the House in May a nonstarter and are assembling a package with closer to $1trl in total spending.

Asian markets are trading a bit more mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.45%) and Kospi (-0.27%) down while in contrast the Hang Seng (+0.12%), ASX (+0.68%) and Shanghai Comp (+1.32%) are up. The CSI 300 is also up +1.82% so there’s been little let up in the rally for Chinese equities and that comes despite China’s Securities Times striking a slight more balanced tone overnight by running a story suggesting that investors should be mindful of potential risks and not use the market as a way to make a fortune. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.18% and crude oil prices are down c. -0.30%. In terms of data out this morning, Japan’s May household spending fell by -16.2% yoy (vs. -11.8% expected), the biggest fall in data going back to 2001. This was even as businesses began to reopen and more people ventured out after a nationwide state of emergency was lifted.

Here in the UK, details of Chancellor Sunak’s speech tomorrow are emerging slowly with Bloomberg reporting overnight that he will announce GBP3bn of investments into environmental projects. The treasury has already said that the Chancellor will also announce GBP1.6bn of measures for arts and culture sector as well as spending of c. GBP1bn on tripling the number of traineeships nationwide and doubling the number of work coaches in job centers.

In other overnight news, Hong Kong asserted broad new police powers including warrant-less searches, online surveillance and property seizures under the new security law with City’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam saying that “This law will be enforced very stringently and people’s concerns will be eased.” Lam also reaffirmed that much of the implementation of the law would be managed in secret, saying that a committee created to oversee it wouldn’t release details from future meetings.

Moving on. When it comes to the coronavirus, yesterday saw the typical slower Monday rise in new cases across many US states due to weekend effects. However the more concerning news for the country is that more states are seeing effective transmission rates (Rt) above 1.0 than in recent weeks. As of yesterday, rtlive estimated that 41 of the 50 states had an Rt value over 1.0, compared to roughly 30 over the past 2 weeks. There is a large amount of uncertainty however, as only one state has a confidence interval entirely under 1.0 (Connecticut) while just three have intervals entirely over 1.0 (WY, WI, MT), though Florida is very close. Specifically cases in Florida rose by a further 3.2% yesterday, but well under the weekly average of 5.1%. Monday has recently seen the week’s lowest daily rise in cases so we would expect to see a sharper rise over the coming days. A similar story emerged in Arizona where new cases rose by 3.4%, below the 4.1% 7 day average. The state also released confirmation that 61% of total cases involve people under 44 years old.

Obviously we need to track the data carefully over the next couple of days as they’ll likely be some catch up from the long weekend in the US. For now you can see the latest state of play in our daily case and fatality tables by clicking “view report” at the top. This also shows that India is now the third most infected country, with confirmed cases nearly at 700K.

Another asset class that did well yesterday was commodities, with Brent Crude up +0.70% near a 4-month high, copper rising a further +1.19% to reach a fresh 5-month high, and gold rising +0.49% to close at a 7-year high. Meanwhile in fixed income, there was a continued narrowing in sovereign bond spreads following last week’s moves. Indeed, the spread of Greek 10yr yields over bunds was down by -1.2bps to 158bps, its lowest level since worries about the pandemic in Europe began in earnest in late February. Core bond yields edged slightly higher however, with 10yr Treasuries up +0.7bps.

Looking at Europe’s data releases yesterday, the main item was the Euro Area retail sales print for May, which surpassed expectations with a +17.8% increase, even if this is still down -5.1% on a year-on-year basis. Over in Germany, factory orders rose by a less-than-expected +10.5% in May (vs. +15.4% expected), with the year-on-year number still down -29.3%. Finally, we got the construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. The German reading only saw a small increase to 41.3, but in the UK there was a big jump to 55.3 (vs. 28.9 in May), its strongest reading since July 2018.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for May, along with the US JOLTS job openings for the same month. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bostic, Daly and Barkin, along with the BoE’s Haldane.

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Escobar: Russia-China Partnership Defangs US Empire

Escobar: Russia-China Partnership Defangs US Empire

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

China’s State Council has released a crucial policy paper…

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Escobar: Russia-China Partnership Defangs US Empire

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

China’s State Council has released a crucial policy paper titled 'A Global Community of Shared Future: China’s Proposals and Actions' that should be read as a detailed, comprehensive road map for a peaceful, multipolar future.

That is if the hegemon - of course faithful to its configuration as War Inc. - does not drag the world into the abyss of a hybrid-turned-hot war with incandescent consequences.

In sync with the ever-evolving Russia-China strategic partnership, the white paper notes how “President Xi Jinping first raised the vision of a global community of shared future when addressing the Moscow State Institute of International Relations in 2013.”

That was ten years ago, when the New Silk Roads – or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - was launched: that became the overarching foreign policy concept of the Xi era. The Belt and Road Forum next month in Beijing will celebrate the 10th anniversary of BRI, and relaunch a series of BRI projects.

“Community of Shared Future” is a concept virtually ignored across the collective West – and in several cases lost in translation across the East. The white paper’s ambition is to introduce “the theoretical base, practice and development of a global community of shared future.”

The five key points include building partnerships “in which countries treat each other as equals”; a fair and just security environment; “inclusive development”; inter-civilization exchanges; and “an ecosystem that puts Mother Nature and green development first," as Xi detailed at the 2015 UN General Assembly.

The white paper forcefully debunks the “Thucydides Trap” fallacy: “There is no iron law that dictates that a rising power will inevitably seek hegemony. This assumption represents typical hegemonic thinking and is grounded in memories of catastrophic wars between hegemonic powers in the past.”

While criticizing the “zero-sum game” to which “certain countries” still cling to, China completely aligns with the Global South/global majority, as in “the common interests of all peoples around the world. When the world thrives, China thrives, and vice versa.”

Well, that’s not exactly the “rules-based international order” in play.

It’s All About Harmony

When it comes to building a new system of international relations, China prioritizes “extensive consultation” among equals and “the principle of sovereign equality” that “runs through the UN Charter.” History and realpolitik, though, dictate that some countries are more equal than others.

This white paper comes from the political leadership of a civilization-state. Thus it naturally promotes the “increase of inter-civilization exchanges to promote harmony” while elegantly remarking how a “fine traditional culture epitomizes the essence of the Chinese civilization.”

Here we see a delicate blend of Taoism and Confucianism, where harmony – praised as “the core concept of Chinese culture” - is extrapolated to the concept of “harmony within diversity”: and that is exactly the basis for embracing cultural diversity.

In terms of promoting a dialogue of civilizations, these paragraphs are particularly relevant:

“The concept of a global community of shared future reflects the common interests of all civilizations – peace, development, unity, coexistence, and win-win cooperation. A Russian proverb holds, 'Together we can weather the storm.'

"The Swiss-German writer Hermann Hesse proposed, 'Serve not war and destruction, but peace and reconciliation.' A German proverb reads, 'An individual’s effort is addition; a team’s effort is multiplication.' An African proverb states, 'One single pillar is not sufficient to build a house.' An Arabian proverb asserts, 'If you want to walk fast, walk alone; if you want to walk far, walk together.'

"Mexican poet Alfonso Reyes wrote, 'The only way to be profitably national is to be generously universal.' An Indonesian proverb says, 'Sugarcane and lemongrass grow in dense clumps.' A Mongolian proverb concludes, 'Neighbors are connected at heart and share a common destiny.' All the above narratives manifest the profound cultural and intellectual essence of the world.”

BRI Caravan Rolls On

Chinese diplomacy has been very vocal on the need to develop a “new type of economic globalization” and engage in “peaceful development” and true multilateralism.

And that brings us inevitably to the BRI, which the white paper defines as “a vivid example of building a global community of shared future, and a global public good and cooperation platform provided by China to the world.”

Of course, for the hegemon and its collective West vassals, BRI is nothing but a massive debt trap mechanism unleashed by “autocrat China”.

The white paper notes, factually, how “more than three-quarters of countries in the world and over 30 international organizations” had joined the BRI, and refers to the sprawling, ever-expanding connectivity framework of six corridors, six routes, an array of ports, pipelines and cyberspace connectivity, among others via the New Eurasian Land Bridge, the China-Europe Railway Express (a “steel camel fleet”) and the New Land-Sea Trade Corridor crisscrossing Eurasia.

A serious problem may involve China’s Global Development Initiative, whose fundamental aim, according to Beijing, is “to accelerate the implementation of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

Well, this agenda has been designed by the self-described Davos elites and conceptualized way back in 1992 by Rockefeller protégé Maurice Strong. Its inbuilt wet dream is to enforce the Great Reset – complete with a nonsensical zero-carbon green agenda.

Better Listen to Medvedev’s Warning

The hegemon is already preparing the next stages of its hybrid war against China – even as it remains buried deep down into a de facto proxy hot war against Russia in Ukraine.

Russian strategic policy, in essence, completely aligns with the Chinese white paper, proposing a Greater Eurasian Partnership, a concerted drive towards multipolarity, and the primacy of the Global South/global majority in forging a new system of international relations.

But the Straussian neocon psychos in charge of the hegemon’s foreign policy keep raising the stakes. So it’s no wonder that after the recent attack on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, a new National Security Council report leads to an ominous warning by Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev:

“NATO has turned into an openly fascist bloc similar to Hitler’s Axis, only bigger (...) It looks like Russia is being left with little choice other than a direct conflict with NATO (...) The result would be much heavier losses for humanity than in 1945."

The Russian Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, has revealed that Ukraine has suffered a staggering 83,000 battlefield deaths since the start of the - failed - counteroffensive four months ago.

And Defense Minister Shoigu all but gave away the game in terms of the long-term strategy, when he said, “the consistent implementation of measures and activity plans until 2025 will allow us to achieve our goals."

So the SMO will not be rounded up before 2025 – incidentally, much later than the next US presidential election. After all, Moscow’s ultimate aim is de-NATOization.

Faced with a cosmic NATO humiliation on the battlefield, the Biden combo has no way out: even if it declared a unilateral ceasefire to re-weaponize Kiev’s forces for a new counteroffensive in the spring/summer of 2024, the war would keep rumbling on all the way to the presidential election.

There’s absolutely no way some sharp intellect in the Beltway would read the Chinese white paper and be “infected” by the concept of harmony. Under the yoke of Straussian neocon psychos, there are zero prospects for a détente with Russia – not to mention Russia-China.

Both the Chinese and Russian leaderships know quite well how the Ray McGovern-defined MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex) works.

The kinetic aspect of MICIMATT is all about protection of the global interests of big US banks, investment/hedge funds and multinational corporations. It’s not a coincidence that MICIMATT monster Lockheed-Martin is mostly owned by Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street. NATO is essentially a mafia protection racket controlled by the US and the UK that has nothing to do with “defending” Europe from the “Russian threat."

The actual MICIMATT and its NATO extension’s wet dream is to weaken and dismember Russia to control its immense natural resources.

War Against the New 'Axis of Evil'

NATO’s incoming graphic humiliation in Ukraine is now compounded with the inexorable rise of BRICS 11 – which embodies a lethal threat to the hegemon’s geoeconomics. There’s next to nothing the MICIMATT can do about that short of nuclear war – except turbo-charging multiple instances of Hybrid War, color revolutions and assorted divide-and-rule schemes. What’s at stake is no less than a complete implosion of neoliberalism.

The Russia-China strategic partnership of true sovereigns has been coordinating full-time.

Strategic patience is the norm. The white paper reveals the magnanimous facet of the number one economy in the world by PPP: that’s China’s response to the infantile notion of “de-risking”.

China is “de-risking” geopolitically when it comes to not falling for serial provocations by the Hegemon, while Russia exercises Taoist-style control to not risk a kinetic war.

Still, what Medvedev just said carries the implication that the hegemon on desperation row could even be tempted to launch WWIII against, in fact, a new “axis of evil” of three BRICS nations – Russia, China and Iran.

Secretary of the [Russian] National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev could not have been more crystal clear:

“In its attempts to maintain its dominance, the West itself destroyed the tools that worked better for it than the military machine. These are freedom of movement of goods and services, transport and logistics corridors, a unified system of payments, global division of labor and value chains. As a result, Westerners are shutting themselves off from the rest of the world at a rapid pace.”

If only they could join the community of shared future – hopefully on a later, non-nuclear, date.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/30/2023 - 23:30

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“More Deceit”: Gaetz Rages Over McCarthy-Ukraine Side Deal To Pass Stopgap

"More Deceit": Gaetz Rages Over McCarthy-Ukraine Side Deal To Pass Stopgap

Update (2155ET): Following the Senate’s passage of the Continuing…

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"More Deceit": Gaetz Rages Over McCarthy-Ukraine Side Deal To Pass Stopgap

Update (2155ET): Following the Senate's passage of the Continuing Resolution, Rep. Matt Gaetz took to Twitter, where he was enraged over a side deal made between Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the Democrats for Ukraine funding, which Gaetz says he "didn't tell House Republicans" about until after the vote. 

Gaetz was responding to Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman, who related a message from House Democratic leadership.

"When the House returns, we expect Speaker McCarthy to advance a bill to the House Floor for an up-or-down vote that supports Ukraine, consistent with his commitment to making sure that Vladimir Putin, Russia and authoritarianism are defeated. We must stand with the Ukrainian people until victory is won."

Nine Senate Republicans voted against the bill; Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) and J.D Vance (R-Ohio).

*  *  *

Update (2109ET):  The Senate has voted 88-9 to pass the House's Continuing Resolution stopgap funding bill, which stripped out funds for Ukraine, includes $16 billion for disaster relief, and will keep the US government running for another 45 days.

Among the Senate "Yea" votes was Michael Bennet (D-CO), who was absolutely flipping his lid over the lack of Ukraine funding earlier in the day.

The bill, which passed the House earlier in the day by a bipartisan vote of 335-91, was passed with just three hours to go before a shutdown.

Just before the vote, Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) vowed to keep fighting for more US taxpayer dollars for Ukraine, saying that he and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have "agreed to continue fighting for more economic and security aid for Ukraine."

"We support Ukraine’s efforts to defend its sovereignty against Putin’s aggression," said Schumer - to which McConnell said he's "confident" that the Senate can pass more "urgent assistance to Ukraine later this year. But let's be clear," that the "alternative," a shutdown, "would not just pause our progress on these important priorities, it would actually set them back."

*  *  *

Update (1755ET): After an afternoon of theatrics from Rep. Jamal Bowman (D-NY), it appears that the stopgap legislation to keep the government running through November 17 will now pass at the 11th hour.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the bill to keep the government funded past 12:01 Sunday includes $16 billion in disaster relief, but does not include Ukraine funds.

The House voted 335-91 for the funding measure, which includes $16 billion in disaster relief but omits aid for Ukraine. It also excludes border-security measures sought by Republicans. The margin exceeded the two-thirds majority needed to clear the bill through the House, which considered the legislation under special procedures requiring a supermajority of votes. All but one Democrat voted in favor of the measure, while nearly half of Republicans voted against it. -WSJ

While White House officials say President Biden supports the measure, the Senate has reportedly been lax in quickly taking up the measure late Saturday, raising the possibility of further malarkey.

Developing...

*  *  *

(Update 1655ET): So let's get this straight. In the home stretch of negotiations over the House's GOP stopgap bill - while Democrats were actively trying to stall the vote so they could actually read it - a widely reported phenomenon, Rep. Jamal Bowman (D-NY) pulls the fire extinguisher.

His excuse is that he wasn't actually trying to stall the the vote, and that he's essentially an idiot...

"Congressman Bowman did not realize he would trigger a building alarm as he was rushing to make an urgent vote. The Congressman regrets any confusion," said a spokesperson.

Yes. Because this happens all the time.

MSNBC breathlessly repeats the Simple Jack defense.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy capitalized on the incident, comparing Bowman to a January 6th insurrectionist.

As we noted below... Bowman used to be a public school principal before he was elected to Congress, who rallied against standardized testing, at a private school he founded that has a 27% literacy rate, so... maybe?

Then again, he would be no stranger to fire drills, no?

*  *  *

House before the House finally approved a 'clean' stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown (which has since been sent to the Senate for consideration before the midnight funding deadline), Socialist Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) was caught pulling the fire alarm in a House office building Saturday in order to try and delay a vote on ta House GOP stopgap spending bill.

The incident in the Cannon Building was caught on camera and confirmed by several witnesses, Politico reports.

"This is the United States Congress, not a New York City high school. To pull the fire alarm to disrupt proceedings when we are trying to draft legislation to AVERT A SHUTDOWN is pathetic…even for members of the socialist squad," Staten Island GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

"Rep Jamaal Bowman pulled a fire alarm in Cannon this morning," House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil wrote on X. "An investigation into why it was pulled is underway."

According to Bowman spox Emma Simon, "Congressman Bowman did not realize he would trigger a building alarm as he was rushing to make an urgent vote. The Congressman regrets any confusion."

In other words, he's claiming to be too stupid to have known what he did - and don't believe your lying eyes!

Granted, Bowman used to be a public school principal before he was elected to Congress, who rallied against standardized testing, at a private school he founded that has a 27% literacy rate, so...

Needless to say, the memes are already flying.

.

Meanwhile, the House cleared the 'clean' stopgap bill without funding for Ukraine or the border, by a vote of 335-91. One Democrat and 90 Republicans voted against the measure.

*  *  *

Update: (1335ET): With a government shutdown just hours away, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has turned to Democrats for help passing a temporary bill, after House Freedom Caucus members dug their heels in over no funds for Ukraine.

"What I am asking, Republicans and Democrats alike, put your partisanship away," said McCarthy. "Focus on the American public."

McCarthy needs a two-thirds majority to pass their Continuing Resolution (CR), which would require a significant number of Democrats - who have strongly supported more Ukraine aid - to cross the aisle.

The House GOP bill would be a 'clean' Continuing Resolution, which won't include Ukraine funding or border assistance.

"We will put a clean funding stopgap on the floor to keep government open for 45 days for the House and Senate to get their work done," said McCarthy following a meeting. "We will also, knowing what had transpired through the summer, the disasters in Florida, the horrendous fire in Hawaii, and also the disasters in California and Vermont. We will put the supplemental portion that the president asked for in disaster there too."

"Keeping the government open while we continue to do our work to end the wasteful spending and the wokeism and most important, secure our border," McCarthy said.

If the bill does not pass, Republicans plan to bring up several measures to mitigate the effects of a government shutdown, multiple members said. 

Those include bills to continue paying service members and extending authorization of the Federal Aviation Administration and National Flood Insurance Program, both of which are also set to expire at midnight unless Congress takes action. Republicans are also examining measures to continue pay for border patrol agents. -The Hill

The Democrats, meanwhile, have been using parliamentary tactics to slow down the vote so they can more carefully read the GOP proposal.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), one of the key holdouts in the House, called McCarthy's bipartisan appeal "disappointing," and said that McCarthy's speakership is "on tenuous ground."

When asked what his next move will be, Gaetz said "I guess we'll have to see how the vote goes."

What's next?

According to Goldman, there's a 90% probability of a shutdown before the Oct. 1 deadline.

That said, there will be three upcoming catalysts in the next few weeks that may result in passage.

1) All members of the US military are due to be paid on Oct. 13, and a missed pay date would have serious political ramifications; there is a good chance the House will vote to reopen before or shortly after that date; 

2) A few House Republicans have said they might bring a “motion to vacate” that would remove McCarthy as Speaker unless a majority of the House supports him. Whatever the outcome of such a vote, getting past it could set the stage for a reopening; 

3) There are procedural moves (a “discharge petition” is the most frequently discussed) that Democrats can make to pass an extension of spending authority in the House over Speaker McCarthy’s objections. However, this would require support from at least 5 House Republicans (assuming that all Democrats sign on). This will not help avoid a shutdown, but could come into play over the next two weeks, as political pressure to reopen grows (particularly when combined with the first point on military pay). 

In light of the above, Goldman doesn't expect this to last more than 2-3 weeks, and that the Oct. 13 military pay date will become a focal point in the timeline.

*  *  *

Update (2157ET): It looks like the Senate isn't willing to strip Ukraine funds from the continuing resolution. In a Friday night tweet, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said that the "misguided Senate bill has no path forward and is dead on arrival."

Meanwhile, according to Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman and Josh Bresnahan, McCarthy is floating a CR that would last until Nov. 17 at FY2023 funding levels, which would not include border funds or Ukraine funding.

*  *  *

In an 11th hour Hail Mary in the hopes of averting a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced that the only way the House will pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government through October is to drop Ukraine funding.

"I think if we had a clean one without Ukraine on it, we could probably be able to move that through," McCarthy told CNN's Manu Raju.

The comment comes hours after McCarthy lost a game of chicken with the House Freedom Caucus, failing to pass a CR which left McCarthy will few options to try and avert a shutdown in less than 36 hours. McCarthy was hoping that the House bill's border security provisions would win over enough holdouts to pass.

Meanwhile, the White House slammed the failed bill over the 'elimination of 12,000 FBI agents,' and 'almost 1,000 ATF agents.'

Of note, House Republicans on Thursday narrowly passed the annual defense spending bill, but only after they removed $300 million in Ukraine aid from the legislation (which then cleared in a separate vote because a bunch of Democrats then voted).

Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who failed twice last week to advance the bill to the floor, finally locked down enough Republican votes to pass the bill after the House stripped $300 million to arm Ukraine from the text.

The separate bill carved out to allocate those funds for Kyiv passed Thursday in a 311-117 blowout bipartisan vote. Republicans had won a close procedural vote earlier in the day to separate the Ukraine money from the Pentagon bill, a move meant to flip a handful of GOP holdouts. -Politico

Democrats framed the optics as Kremlin-friendly, with House Armed Services ranking Democrat Adam Smith saying "The Russians are good at propaganda... It will be played as America backing off of its commitment for Ukraine."

Republicans responded that by carving Ukraine out of the defense bill, it allows opponents of either measure (Ukraine aid or the defense bill) to voice their opinions on each independently.

"Why don’t we make sure this gets through? I mean, I’m just mystified that this is somehow a problem," said House Rules Chair Tom Cole (R-OK), according to Politico. "We guarantee you something you want is going to pass the House and you’re upset about it."

And now, McCarthy says there's no way to avert a government shutdown unless the House, and the Senate, agree to nix Ukraine aid from the 30-day stopgap.

Fire and Brimstone...

On Friday, White House top economic adviser Lael Brainard said that a shutdown would pose an "unnecessary risk" to what he described as a resilient economy with moderating inflation.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen then chimed in, warning that all of Bidenomics could be negatively impacted.

"The failure of House Republicans to act responsibly would hurt American families and cause economic headwinds that could undermine the progress we’re making," Yellen said from Port of Savannah, Georgia, adding "A shutdown would impact many key government functions from loans to farmers and small businesses, to food and workplace safety inspections, to Head Start programs for children.

"And it could delay major infrastructure improvements."

Goldman has predicted that a shutdown will last 2-3 weeks, and that a 'quick reopening looks unlikely as political positions become more deeply entrenched.' Instead, as political pressure to reopen the government builds, pay dates for active-duty military (Oct. 13 and Nov. 1) will become key dates to pay attention to.

In addition, they think a shutdown could subtract 0.2pp from Q4 GDP growth for each week it lasts (adding the same to 1Q2024, assuming it's over by then).

What's more, all data releases from federal agencies would be postponed until after the government reopens.

More via Goldman:

What are the odds the government shuts down?

A shutdown this year has looked likely for several months, and we now think the odds have risen to 90%. The most likely scenario in our view is that funding will lapse after Sep. 30, leading to a shutdown starting Oct. 1. That said, a short-term extension cannot be entirely ruled out. In the event that Congress avoids a shutdown starting Oct. 1, we would still expect a shutdown at some point later in Q4.

While there is likely sufficient support in both chambers of Congress to pass a short-term extension of funding—this is known as a “continuing resolution” (CR)—that is “clean” with no other provisions attached, the majority of that support would come from Democrats. The Senate is considering a CR that includes aid for disaster relief and Ukraine. House Republican leaders are under political pressure to pass a CR that includes Republican policy priorities that can pass with mainly or exclusively Republican support. At the moment, neither chamber looks likely to pass the other chamber's CR.

The outlook seemed bleak ahead of the debt limit deadline earlier this year, but Congress resolved it in time; why shouldn’t we expect a last-minute deal once again?

The smaller economic hit from a shutdown puts less pressure on Republican leaders to override the objections of some in their party to reach a deal. Ahead of the debt limit deadline earlier this year, Republican leaders reached a deal over the objections of some in their party because the potential hit to the economy from an impasse would have been unpredictable and severe, and even lawmakers most strongly opposed to a compromise agreed that the debt limit must be raised. By contrast, the economic hit from a shutdown would be smaller and more predictable, as there have already been two protracted shutdowns over the last decade. While most lawmakers on both sides of the aisle would prefer to avoid a shutdown, both sides appear more willing to take the chance it occurs.

*  *  *

Stay tuned...

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/30/2023 - 17:57

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A Climate Of Fear

A Climate Of Fear

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

The medical, media, and political elites’ focus has shifted from facts…

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A Climate Of Fear

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

The medical, media, and political elites’ focus has shifted from facts to fomenting and magnifying fear.

In Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first inaugural address in 1933, the new president told a nation in the depths of the Great Depression that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Those words were true and rightfully spoken at that time. Roosevelt knew that fear is a powerful emotion that limits our ability to reason, act wisely, and work together. It’s also an emotion that’s contagious and not easily diminished or dissipated.

The Power of Fear to Fragment Society

Unfortunately, Roosevelt’s words are even more applicable today.

On a personal level, decisions made under the emotional duress of fear are rarely the best ones and often the worst. Fear can bring out the best in us, but can often bring out the worst. That’s more likely to occur the more fragmented a society becomes. Fear among different groups of people creates an us-versus-them context in the minds of individuals, or even an “every-man-for-himself” attitude, which pits one group against another or even each of us against each other.

Now elevate that sense of fear to the level of the national electorate. A people or a nation that's paralyzed with fear makes rash decisions based on their fears of what could happen, not necessarily what the current situation truly is. When that happens, a society can quickly degenerate, where our base instincts determine our behavior in a law-of-the-jungle social environment.

Roosevelt knew this, as do our leaders today. The difference is that today, rather than seeking to dispel fear, our political and media elites create it, expand it, and revel in it. Rather than promote hope and strength of character in us, in a Roosevelt- or even a Reagan-like fashion, they traffic in fear and its fellow traveler social division in order to fragment our society.

It’s the old but effective divide-and-conquer strategy, and sadly, it works far too well. The mechanism for divide and conquer is the constant drumbeat of the Big Lie, which is also a tried and true method for controlling society. It was first practiced and perfected by Joseph Goebbels in Nazi Germany using the mass media, but has been successfully used by the USSR and every other communist and dictatorial regime in the world since the 1930s.

Social Media Is Magnitudes More Powerful Than Legacy Media

The difference today is the massive and pervasive presence of social media. Its reach and social saturation throughout society are magnitudes greater than have ever been possible before. What’s more, our political and media elites create and exaggerate fear without even mentioning the word. “Fear” is driven into our collective psyches under the guise of our government keeping us “safe,” while demonizing anyone who challenges that narrative.

The repetition by the media and the pharmaceutical industry of how to stay safe from COVID-19 always involves more drugs and less freedom. That’s by design. The elites that run society know that once enough of our friends, neighbors, coworkers, and others with whom we interact become more fearful than rational, they’re easily manipulated and divided into confrontational groups.

Does that sound like a conspiracy theory?

Yes, it probably does, but it’s also how the Stasi, the East German security agency, turned virtually every neighbor into an informant. The result was that people were fearful of doing anything that could be construed as being against the communist East German government. In light of what we’ve been through the last three years—and what looks to be on the horizon—the conspiracy theory accusation has lost its sting.

From Conspiracy Theory to Fact

Recall, for example, how those who received the COVID-19 vaccine turned against those who remained unvaccinated. The contrast and social division couldn’t have been clearer or more deliberate. Vaccinated people were characterized by the media and government agency spokespeople as selfless, smarter, and better human beings than those who refused the vaccine.

On the flip side, the “anti-vaxxers,” as they came to be called, were publicly derided by the medical, pharmaceutical, media, and government elites. They were accused of being low-intelligence conspiracy theory nuts who wouldn’t or couldn’t “follow the science,” even when they followed the science from experts such as Robert Malone, one of the inventors of the mRNA technology, and other medical doctors in Europe and Asia, including former Pfizer Vice President Dr. Michael Yeadon, all of whom were de-platformed from mainstream media and social media.

In fact, any “alternative” remedy to the experimental and highly dangerous mRNA vaccines, such as ivermectin, was summarily dismissed, even though nations that used ivermectin had the lowest mortality rates. As noted above, many media personalities and even medical experts with contrary opinions were silenced, shamed, and shunted into professional oblivion, being substituted by compliant replacements. That practice continues to this day, with Russell Brand being the latest example of being de-monetized by YouTube.

In light of vaccine injuries and deaths, and the staggering profits that vaccines have delivered to the pharmaceutical industry, the number of people who believe the mainstream media, the government, and in the vaccines, is much smaller today than three years ago.

Conspiracy theory narratives have become conspiracy facts.

The Endgame of Fear

So, what’s the endgame of promoting and enforcing a climate of fear throughout society?

It’s simple. Fearful people are far more compliant and, therefore, are easily controlled, pacified, monitored, and dehumanized. Next thing you know, we’ll all be eating bugs and liking it.

The antidote to fear, of course, is freedom and access to real and contrary information so that each person can make up his or her own mind. The encouragement, enablement, and empowerment of private individuals to exercise informed judgment about their health and their livelihoods are also part of the solution. A vibrant, thinking, and active society of informed individuals isn't nearly as vulnerable to the polarizing climate of fear our elites are foisting upon us.

In short, to live in fear is to live in bondage.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/30/2023 - 20:50

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