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Futures Dip As Markets Brace For Hawkish Fed Surprise

Futures Dip As Markets Brace For Hawkish Fed Surprise

US stock index futures slipped on Wednesday – after a frenzied late rally into Tuesday’s…



Futures Dip As Markets Brace For Hawkish Fed Surprise

US stock index futures slipped on Wednesday - after a frenzied late rally into Tuesday’s month-end thanks to a monstrous, $6 billion in Market on Close buy orders - but were off session lows as investors awaited the Fed’s policy decision after a stellar start to the year for stocks amid speculation the central bank will signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.

Futures on the S&P 500 were 0.2% lower, trading around 4083, while Nasdaq 100 futs popped into the green as of 745am ET, with both underlying indexes surging more than 1% on Tuesday. The Nasdaq soared more than 10% in January in a furious short-covering rebound unseen in more than two decades. An index of global stocks excluding the US is making history with a gain of 8.6% last month — the best start to a year on record. Elsewhere, European and Asian stocks rose, the 10-year Treasury yield fell about three basis points and the dollar index dipped before the Fed statement, where it’s forecast to unveil a 25 basis point rate increase.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Electronic Arts Inc. after the video game maker cut its full-year forecast and announced a six-week delay in the release of its next Star Wars game. Chipmaker AMD rose after the chipmaker gave a sales forecast that was better than feared, helped by gains in the server market. Perennial loser Snap plunged as the social media company gave a weaker-than-expected forecast, saying changes to its advertising products may be “disruptive” to its business. Shares of other companies that get a bulk of their revenue from online advertising, including Meta and Pinterest also dropped. Bank stocks were also lower in premarket trading Wednesday as traders await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. JPMorgan is planning to launch a digital bank in Germany as its second international consumer outpost. Meanwhile, some users of bankrupt crypto lender Celsius Network’s Custody program will be able to withdraw 94% of their eligible assets, according to a court filing. Here are some other notable premarket movers.

  • Peloton jumped 8% after it reported improved cash flow and a narrower net loss in the latest quarter, leading Chief Executive Officer Barry McCarthy to say that questions about the viability of the business have been “put to bed.”
  • Chinese stocks listed in the US rise in premarket trading, poised to end three days of declines, with Baidu and electric-vehicle stocks leading the way. Li Auto (LI US) +6%, XPeng (XPEV US) +4.1%, Baidu (BIDU US) +7.9%, Alibaba (BABA US) +1.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +2.6%, Bilibili (BILI US) +3.1%
  • Western Digital shares slide 4.5% after its revenue forecast for the third quarter fell short of estimates. Analysts blamed weakness in the NAND flash market and PC demand, though some were hopeful that the data-storage device maker could weather the storm.
  • Electronic Arts shares fall 11% after the video-game company cut its full-year forecast and announced a six-week delay in the release of its next Star Wars game.
  • Match Group slides 8.7% after the dating services firm gave guidance for 1Q23 showing little fundamental business improvement is expected near-term.
  • Keep an eye on Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT US) stock as Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an overweight recommendation, saying the biotech is a leader in gene therapy with a robust cardiovascular pipeline and a hematology pipeline providing near-term revenue.

Today's key event is the FOMC decision due at 2pm (preview here). Economists widely expect the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell is likely to keep further hikes on the table while leaning against bets they will cut rates later this year.

"Powell will certainly sound satisfied about the falling inflation and slowing wages, but he will likely point out that inflation remains high, risks to inflation remain to the upside and that the job is not done yet,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “He will surely push back the expectation of any rate cut this year” and a hawkish statement could further weigh on stocks, she said.

Wage cost data that undershot forecasts, a cooling housing market dwindling consumer confidence suggest the Fed’s rate hikes over the past year have begun to curtail inflation, but still-loose financial conditions are complicating the central bank’s task.

"The question is will the Fed emphasize a pause or push back against the easing being priced in for this year and the next,” said Steve Donzé, deputy head of investment at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo. “The market is worried about this, because a lot of this rally was helped by softer yields and the dollar and if the Fed starts to fight the easing that’s priced in it will have consequences for the yield curve and equities.”

Powell will also try to push back against easing financial conditions which are now as loose as they were in Jun 2022 when Fed Funds were 1.75%.

Focus is also on company earnings, with analysts expecting the first quarterly drop in US profits since 2020. Investors can no longer count on some crucial tailwinds that helped spur a remarkable two-decade stretch of earnings growth, according to Bank of America.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index pared most of its early gain after a report showed inflation in the euro area slowed more than economists’ expectations in January. The the core measure remained sticky, however, suggesting heated debate to come at the European Central Bank over how much more interest rates must rise. The central bank is expected to lift its policy rate by 50 basis points on Thursday. Here are some of the biggest European movers:

  • GSK shares turned lower after gaining as much as 1.5% as its quarterly sales and profit both topped expectations, driven by a strong performance in the vaccines division and HIV drug portfolio
  • ABB shares rise as much as 1.3% after the Swiss automation company’s EV-charging business raised additional funds from minority investors
  • Husqvarna rises as much as 7% as the Swedish lawn care and outdoor equipment firm’s organic sales growth, particularly for its robotic products, led to an outperformance in 4Q
  • BBVA shares advance as much as 2.5% after it reported earnings which Jefferies described as solid. Analysts also noted the upbeat outlook for 2023
  • Virgin Money UK shares gain as much as 1.2% after the bank forecast net interest margin for the full year of 1.85% to 1.9%, in an update seen as “neutral” by Morgan Stanley
  • Darktrace shares rise as much as 6%, recovering from a two-day 17% slump, after the cybersecurity firm announced plans to buy back shares
  • Vodafone shares decline as much as 3.3% in early trading, after the telecom operator reported a further slowdown in service revenue growth in core markets including Germany and Spain
  • SEB falls as much as 4.4% after Trygg-Stiftelsen sold 75m shares in the bank at a price of SEK120 apiece, representing a 4.9% discount versus Tuesday’s close
  • Novartis dips as much as 1.9% after the Swiss drugmaker’s quarterly sales were a touch behind expectations due to a miss for psoriasis treatment Cosentyx

“Headline inflation continues to fall across the eurozone but core inflation, which strips out food and energy, flatlined,” said John Leiper, Chief Investment Officer at Titan Asset Management. “Price pressure, particularly in the services sector, will remain elevated for some time. Given the economy is holding up far better than predicted we expect the ECB to hike interest rates again on Thursday by a widely anticipated 50 basis points.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, as signs of cooling US inflation boosted risk appetite in the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, driven by technology and consumer discretionary shares. Benchmarks in Hong Kong as well as the tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan all gained about 1%, while India declined. All eyes were on the Fed meeting later Wednesday, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike. Investors betting on a downshift in tightening were cheered by data showing slower growth in US employment costs, adding to signs of moderating inflation. 

“Wall Street is slowly growing confident that this week’s Fed rate hike might end up being the last one in this tightening cycle,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. “The economy is weakening and that is fueling Fed rate cut bets at the end of the year.” India’s benchmarks erased early gains driven by a budget boost, as a selloff among Adani group’s stocks accelerated in afternoon trading.

In India, Adani Group stocks resumed their selloff after the share sale by the Indian conglomerate’s flagship firm failed to turn sentiment from Hindenburg Research’s fraud allegations. In one bright spot for the group, nearly all dollar bonds issued by Adani companies extended gains into a second day.

Japanese stocks closed mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later Wednesday and as investors weighed domestic company results. The Topix fell 0.2% to close at 1,972.23, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 27,346.88. Lasertec contributed the most to the Topix decline, falling 14% after the chip-equipment maker reported quarterly profit that missed analyst estimates and trimmed its order outlook. Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 935 rose and 1,134 fell, while 95 were unchanged. “There is a consensus that the FOMC may end interest-rate hikes in March,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “After that, we would want to see the impact on the economy”.

Australian stocks rose with the S&P/ASX 200 index 0.3% higher to close at 7,501.70, boosted by gains in mining stocks and banks, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.  Flight Centre was the top performer, surging 8% after the travel agency successfully completed a A$180 million placement to buy UK-based luxury travel brand Scott Dunn and provided a trading update.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1% to 12,090.93.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index eased 0.1% ahead of the Fed policy decision later on Wednesday where it’s expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. The greenback was steady to weaker against its most Group-of-10 peers, with Scandinavian currencies topping the G-10 leaderboard. The Treasury curve bull flattened, with the 10-year yield dropping by about 4bps.

  • The euro inched up toward $1.09 though options suggest a move above $1.10 after the Fed and the ECB is unlikely. Euro-zone bonds pared an advance after core-CPI for the region came in higher than estimated in January, while the headline number eased more than forecast.
  • The pound underperformed most of its Group-of-10 peers, trading little changed against a the US dollar. Domestic focus remains on Thursday’s BOE decision.
  • New Zealand’s dollar was steady while short-maturity bonds gained and traders trimmed bets on a rate hike at the RBNZ’s February meeting after employment data missed estimates.

Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve, with gilts outperforming over the early London session across the belly of the curve. US yields are richer by up to 2.5bp across the long end of the curve, which is outperforming slightly, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 0.5bp; 10-year yields around 3.485%, outperforming bunds by 3bp in the sector — the front end and belly of the UK curve is outperforming over the early London session. Fed-dated swaps market is pricing in around 27bp of rate hike premium for Wednesday’s decision and 47bp over the Feb. and March meetings; policy peak is priced at around 4.92% by the June meeting. The US session focus is on manufacturing data in the morning, before attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. in Washington and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later.    

In commodities, crude futures are little changed, with WTI trading near $79.00. Spot gold falls roughly 0.1% to trade near $1,926

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision as well as Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, data releases include the flash CPI release for the Euro Area in January, as well as the unemployment rate for December. Alongside that, there’s the global manufacturing PMIs for January and in the US we’ve got the ISM manufacturing print for January, the ADP’s report of private payrolls, and the JOLTS job openings for December. Finally, earnings releases today include Meta.

Market snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,084
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 169.15
  • MXAPJ up 1.0% to 554.79
  • Nikkei little changed at 27,346.88
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,972.23
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 22,072.18
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,284.92
  • Sensex little changed at 59,576.27
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,501.66
  • Kospi up 1.0% to 2,449.80
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 454.03
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,923.98
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.12% to 101.97
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.26%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0880
  • Brent Futures little changed at $85.38/bbl

Top overnight News from Bloomberg

The EU risks missing a March target to agree on a reform of its debt-limit rules in the face of resistance from countries including Germany, a prospect that may force member states into abrupt and potentially painful budgetary adjustments

For bond investors looking to bet big on a rally this year, signs of distress in the world’s highly-leveraged housing markets are only adding to their conviction. Places like the UK, New Zealand and Sweden — where house prices are slumping and mortgage payments are rocketing — are high on their watchlist

Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices

Swathes of office staff have been forced to work from home Wednesday as widespread industrial action closes schools and cripples Britain’s rail network. As many as 475,000 union members are on strike

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for enhanced efforts to boost consumption in order to realize a virtuous economic cycle, as the world’s second largest economy gradually recovers from Covid Zero

A surge in Chinese spending last month has spurred more optimism about the country’s economic rebound, though weakness among manufacturers and sales of cars and homes still suggest the recovery isn’t yet on sure footing

Asia’s manufacturers are improving at the start of the year as the region becomes more optimistic about the boost from China’s reopening, while activity in the euro area shows the downturn is softening as cost pressures ease



A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher after the positive lead from Wall St where stocks advanced into month-end and which was facilitated by the softer Employment Cost growth in the US, although gains were capped by the approaching FOMC rate decision and after disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the mining and materials sectors after a rebound in commodity prices and with an upgrade in the Final Australian Manufacturing PMI also conducive for risk appetite. Nikkei 225 briefly climbed above 27,500 but closed off its highs amid a deluge of earnings releases and after Japan’s manufacturing activity was confirmed to have declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive albeit with momentum restricted after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI missed forecasts and printed a 6th consecutive month in contraction territory which was in contrast to the recent rebound seen in China’s official PMIs.

Top Asian News

  • US Defence Secretary Austin's visit to Manila is expected to bring a deal on expanded US access to bases in the Philippines, according to a senior Philippines official cited by Reuters.
  • China's President Xi says the need to coordinate expansion of domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms, via State Media.
  • China securities regulator CSRC has released draft rules for IPO registration system reform for 1st February.
  • Tiny Radioactive Device Found in Australia After Desert Hunt
  • Modi Aims to Please All With $550 Billion India Budget
  • Gold Steadies as Traders Await Fed Meeting for Rate Outlook
  • China Lifts Southeast Asia Factories as Europe Downturn Softens
  • Insurers Top Losers as India Budget Seeks to Tighten Tax Rules
  • Adani Rout Passes $90 Billion as Stock Sale Fails to Stem Doubt

European bourses are little changed overall but with a modest positive bias, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, ahead of data points and the FOMC. Sectors are predominantly in the green, but with the overall breadth narrow and no overarching theme in play despite numerous large cap earnings in the European morning; click here and here for details. Stateside, futures are a touch softer after yesterday's strength, ES -0.4%, with after-market updates weighing ahead of data and the Fed's policy announcement/press conference. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) - Q4 sales and profits topped expectations, but warns of revenue decline in Q1. +3.3% in pre-market trade  Tesla (TSLA) intends to increase the Shanghai plant's average weekly output to nearly 20k vehicles for Feb and March, according to an internal memo cited by Reuters.

Top European News

  • UK and EU reached a customs agreement which could pave the way for an end of post-Brexit wrangling over Northern Ireland, according to The Times.
  • Officials in Brussels have reportedly dismissed claims of a compromise deal on the ECJs role in the N. Ireland Protocol, via BBC's Parker citing sources; Parker adds, "A precise timeline isn’t clear but one official says negotiators are in the “tunnel”."."Regardless any compromise of that kind would also represent a significant UK concession, as well as an EU one." (re. the ECJ).
  • RTE's Connelly, on reports of an EU/UK deal on the NI protocol, says there is "Nothing new. Talks ongoing. Progress (is) being made but no sign of anything imminent.", citing a source.


  • The DXY is subdued and holding modestly below the 102.00 mark with slightly softer US yields vs global peers and the pre-FOMC risk tone exerting modest pressure on the USD.
  • EUR and AUD are the current outperformers despite a fleeting dip in EUR/USD following EZ Flash CPI while AUD is benefiting from soft New Zealand labour data and a subsequent paring in RBNZ rate expectations; EUR/USD just shy of 1.09 while AUD/USD resides near 0.708.
  • CAD remains near 1.33 pre-data while Cable has extended above the 1.23 mark irrespective of a pushback on reporting of an EU/UK compromise.
  • SEK and NOK have benefitted somewhat from their respective PMIs, though EUR upside caps gains, while the INR has slipped post-budget.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7492 vs exp. 6.7499 (prev. 6.7604)

Fixed Income

  • EGBs are firmer but well off initial best levels, with Bunds below 137.00 after more than paring a knee-jerk spike on the EZ Flash CPI release, where once again the headline cooled but core remains firmer.
  • Gilts are faring better than their German peer post-supply, with the 2033 Green Gilt better received than the 2033 Bund, which required a hefty retention.
  • USTs are marginally outperforming and towards the top-end of 114.17+ to 114.30 parameters with yields lower as such and action most pronounced at the long-end of the curve.


  • Crude benchmarks have seen some modest two-way action throughout the morning, though the benchmarks are in relatively narrow ranges and near the unchanged mark overall.
  • Action which comes ahead of the OPEC+ JMMC event, which is not a decision-making meeting, and other risk events throughout the session.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.3mln (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing +2.7mln, Gasoline +2.7mln (exp. +1.4mln), Distillate +1.5mln (exp. -1.3mln).
  • OPEC+ JMMC has been pushed back one hour to 13:00GMT/08:00EST, according to Energy Intel.
  • Spot gold is little changed around the USD 1925/oz mark, given the broader tentative pre-FOMC price action. Base metals are softer following the miss in China's Caixin PMI release.


  • US is readying a USD 2.2bln weapons package for Ukraine which includes longer-range rockets for the first time, according to two officials cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Kremlin says that potential US supplies of long-range missiles to Ukraine would escalate tensions but would not stop Russia from achieving its goals; as bad as the present situation is, Russia believes the START treaty is very important; no current plans to hold talks between Russian President Putin and US President Biden, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Belarusian servicemen have begun full independent operation of the Iskander missile system, according to the defence ministry.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications -9.0%, prior 7.0%
  • 08:15: Jan. ADP Employment Change, est. 180,000, prior 235,000
  • 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 46.8, prior 46.8
  • 10:00: Dec. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
  • 10:00: Dec. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.3m, prior 10.5m
  • 10:00: Jan. ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.0, prior 48.4
    • New Orders, prior 45.2, revised 45.1
    • Employment, prior 51.4, revised 50.8
    • Prices Paid, est. 40.4, prior 39.4

Central Banks

  • 14:00: Feb. FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound est. 4.50%, prior 4.25%; Upper Bound est. 4.75%, prior 4.50%)
  • 14:00: Feb. Interest on Reserve Balances R, est. 4.65%, prior 4.40%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a very positive January, the start of February today marks a pivotal three days for markets that have the potential to decisively set the tone for the weeks ahead. That begins this morning with the flash CPI release from the Euro Area for January, before we have the Fed’s latest policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference tonight. Then tomorrow we’ve got more policy decisions from the ECB and the BoE, an array of major earnings including Apple, Amazon and Alphabet, followed up by the US jobs report for January on Friday.

The last time we had a big round of central bank meetings like this in December, the rate hikes themselves were much as expected, but the hawkish rhetoric alongside them led to a big selloff. Nevertheless, the mood going into this round is much more optimistic, with the S&P 500 (+1.46%) closing at a 2-month high after the US Employment Cost Index numbers showed labour costs grew by less-than-expected, whilst the French CPI release also came in much as expected (unlike the Spanish print the previous day). So all eyes are now on the Fed to see whether they maintain their hawkish tone of recent meetings, or whether there might be any signals of a potential pause at future meetings.

When it comes to the Fed’s decision today, a 25bps rate hike is now widely expected by both markets and economists, and anything other than that would be a massive shock. It would also mark the first “normal” sized hike since March 2022 when this hiking cycle began, before they embarked on a series of supersized hikes to swiftly get the policy rate into restrictive territory. Given that the 25bps move is anticipated, the main focus today will instead be on any changes to forward guidance, both in the statement and from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.

In their preview (link here), our US economists write that the statement is likely to keep the reference to “ongoing” rate hikes. Their view is that although the FOMC might be inclined to adjust this language as it moves closer to a pause, doing so now has little upside and risks widening the existing gap between market expectations and a more hawkish Fed. In terms of market expectations, futures are currently pricing in one more 25bps hike after today’s move, but only a one-in-three of another move after that. Indeed, terminal rate pricing points to just +58.3bps of further hikes, so closer to 50bps than 75bps. Futures are also indicating that the Fed will start cutting by year-end, which is contrary to the last FOMC minutes in December, where it said that “no participants” thought it would be appropriate to start cutting rates in 2023.

Ahead of the decision, there was some good news from their perspective in the latest ECI numbers for Q4. That’s closely followed by the Fed and showed an increase in employment costs of +1.0% (vs. +1.1% expected), which is the slowest quarterly increase in a year and added to the signs that wage growth is moderating. Nevertheless, if you wanted a more negative perspective, it’s still running above levels consistent with their target, and is above what we saw throughout the entirety of the 2010s. So as with the inflation figures, the Fed still have a way to travel before they can be comfortable about reaching their target, even if we’ve come off the highs from early 2022.

This optimism on the inflation side got added support from the French CPI numbers yesterday, with the EU-harmonised print at +7.0% as expected. That was a bit higher than the +6.7% in December, but the good news from an investor perspective was that it didn’t exceed expectations, unlike the Spanish print on Monday. All eyes will now be on the release for the Euro Area as a whole at 10:00 London time, and particularly on core inflation which hit a record 5.2% in December.

With all that to look forward to, markets staged a decent rally yesterday and the S&P 500 was up +1.46% to recover from its slump on Monday. The moves were part of a broad-based advance, with all 24 industry groups gaining on the day, led by autos (+4.32%), transports (+3.19%), retail (+2.24%), and materials (+2.22%). The worst performing industries were more defensive sectors, but even they advanced on the day as well. Meanwhile, the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 (+2.45%) were a particular outperformer as they closed at a 5-month high. The performance in Europe was rather weaker, with the STOXX 600 down -0.26%, but they hadn’t experienced the late selloff after the previous day’s close either.

Sovereign bonds also rallied ahead of the various meetings, with yields on 10yr Treasuries seeing a decline of -3.0bps decline to 3.507%, with yields remaining fairly stable overnight. That was echoed in Europe as well, where there were slightly larger moves in yields for 10yr bunds (-3.2bps), OATs (-3.4bps) and BTPs (-4.4bps). Those moves followed a small decline in terminal rate pricing for the Fed down -1.3bps on the day, while expectations for the ECB were basically unchanged (-0.6bps).

Overnight in Asia, that positive mood has continued with the major indices recovering after the previous day’s losses. Currently, the KOSPI (+0.72%) is leading gains with the Shanghai Comp (+0.29%), Hang Seng (+0.27%), CSI 300 (+0.25%) and the Nikkei (+0.09%), posting smaller advances. That’s also in spite of overnight data showing that Chinese manufacturing activity shrank more than expected in January, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI at 49.2 (vs. 49.8 expected), even if that was up from the 49.0 reading in December. Outside of Asia, the picture is a bit less positive as well, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.28%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.39%) in negative territory ahead of the Fed’s decision today.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the Euro Area economy unexpectedly grew by +0.1% in Q4 (vs. -0.1% expected), so avoiding a recession for the time being. That said, plenty of countries still saw a quarterly contraction, including Germany (-0.2%), Italy (-0.1%), Sweden (-0.6%) and Austria (-0.7%). Otherwise, UK mortgage approvals fell more than expected to 35.6k in December (vs. 45.0k expected), which is their lowest level since May 2020 when the economy was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision as well as Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, data releases include the flash CPI release for the Euro Area in January, as well as the unemployment rate for December. Alongside that, there’s the global manufacturing PMIs for January and in the US we’ve got the ISM manufacturing print for January, the ADP’s report of private payrolls, and the JOLTS job openings for December. Finally, earnings releases today include Meta.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/01/2023 - 08:05

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…



BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
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  • Aging LinkedIn
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  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…



NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…



  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  


Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400


The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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