Connect with us

Bonds

Futures Crash, Stocks At 2022 Lows; Yields, Dollar Explode As UK Stimulus Plan Sparks Global Market Panic

Futures Crash, Stocks At 2022 Lows; Yields, Dollar Explode As UK Stimulus Plan Sparks Global Market Panic

One week after stocks suffered their…

Published

on

Futures Crash, Stocks At 2022 Lows; Yields, Dollar Explode As UK Stimulus Plan Sparks Global Market Panic

One week after stocks suffered their biggest drop since June, futures are in freefall on Friday with the dollar soaring to the now default daily record high...

... 10Y yields exploding higher, surging more than 10bps so far today...

... in what appears to be the latest bond market flash smash which has pushed 10Y yields to the highest level since 2010...

... and S&P futures plunging over 1.4%, and the S&P set to open at a fresh 2022 low...

... with futures set to drop nearly 5% (or more) for a 2nd consecutive week, and down 5 of the past 6 weeks!

Besides the soaring dollar, two other drivers contributed to today's widespread market panic:

  • first, the shocking UK mini budget saw the country's new administration slash tax rates by the most since 1970s at a time when the country is about to enter recession and is battling with runaway inflation which crashed UK bonds and sent the pound tumbling to a 37 year low as markets priced in a more aggressive pace of tightening to offset the government’s growth plan,
  • second, traders also freaked out over a Goldman research report which slashed the bank's S&P price-target to just 3,600 from 4,300, making the bank one of the biggest bears on Wall Street.

In premarket trading, Costco shares declined 3.3% as analysts flagged that volatility may remain high for the company’s shares. Analysts mostly welcomed its report of modest improvements in inflation and supply chains. here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • AMD shares dropped 1.5% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley trimmed price target to $95 from $102, citing a worsening PC end market and headwinds on the client business, including a collapse in gaming GPUs.
  • Tritium DCFC shares jumped 4% in postmarket trading, following six straight losing sessions, after the maker of electric-vehicle chargers reported sales orders of $203 million for fiscal year ended June 30, and revenue of $86 million.
  • CalAmp gained 3% postmarket after the maker of tracking devices posted fiscal 2Q revenue that beat estimates.
  • DocuSign edged higher in postmarket trading after announcing that the board of directors has hired Allan Thygesen as Chief Executive Officer.

Europe's Stoxx 600 dropped more than 1%, declining 20% from January record high, set to enter a new bear market. Energy, miners and real estate are the worst-performing sectors amid broad-based declines.  Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Credit Suisse shares declined as much as 9.4% to a record low for a second day running, even as the bank denied a report that it was considering an exit from its US operations
  • Ericsson falls as much as 6.1% to 2-year lows after a Radio Sweden report saying the communications equipment maker continued to send products to Russia after saying deliveries had been suspended
  • Energy is among the worst-performing sectors on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index on Friday, with the subindex falling as much as 2.6% to the lowest since July 27 as oil heads for a fourth weekly loss
  • European warehouse firms slide after Barclays issued a review on the sector, cutting target prices on average by 20%, downgrading Tritax Big Box REIT and Warehouses De Pauw to underweight
  • Bureau Veritas falls as much as 5% after Oddo cuts to underperform, saying the valuation gap with peers and recent stock performance seems to leave more downside than upside in relative terms
  • Nordic Semiconductor shares rise after DNB said it had found a component from the firm in the latest version of Apple’s AirPods Pro earphones which were released today. Varta, meanwhile drops as much as 13% after DNB found batteries from its rival Samsung in the new earphones
  • UK homebuilders, retailers and banks get a boost as Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announces several tax relief measures, with much of the sector trimming earlier losses

As reported earlier, UK stocks, bonds and the cable all plunged as traders ramped up their bets on Bank of England rate hikes, betting on a 50% chance of a 100-basis-point increase from the central bank at its next rate decision in November, as the government set out its most radical package of debt-financed tax cuts since 1972 and the Debt Management Office increased its gilt sales plan more than expected.  “The markets will do what they will,” said Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, when challenged in parliament on the mayhem in markets.

The European Central Bank will also forge ahead with increases in borrowing costs, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, even as recession risks rise across the continent.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, with investors continuing to flee riskier assets as Treasury yields surged following the Fed’s rate hike that increased recession fears. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slipped as much as 1.6% while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index was on course for its sixth weekly retreat, the longest losing streak since May. TSMC and Tencent were the biggest drags on both gauges as the tech sector led declines.  All markets in the region dropped, with several hitting grim milestones. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell to the lowest in more than a decade, while South Korea’s Kospi finished at its lowest since Oct. 2020. Australia’s benchmark fell nearly 2% as the country resumed trading after a holiday. Japan was closed. 

“The intense tightening by the Federal Reserve to go all-out against inflation heightened fears that it could destroy demand and cause a recession,” said Han Jiyoung, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul.    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has lost about a third of its value from a 2021 peak as the Fed’s rate-hike campaign and the strengthening US dollar prompted an exodus of funds from emerging markets. China’s regulatory crackdowns and its strict Covid lockdown policies have also weighed on sentiment.   Hong Kong stocks ended in the red even as the city scrapped hotel quarantine for inbound travelers, the most substantial move yet in the city’s push to revive its status as a global financial center. “It’s optimistic to think a recession can be avoided and in our opinion any chance of a soft landing has evaporated,” said George Brown, an economist at Schroders. “We believe a recession will be needed to bring inflation under control.”

In rates, the yield on 10- year Treasuries exploded higher as bonds briefly flash crashed, sending the 10Y yields as low as 3.82% in a bear-flattening move that lifted front-end yields more than 10bp; 2-year and 3-year yields peak above 4.25% with all tenors reaching multiyear highs. Move follows soaring gilt yields where belly of the UK curve is cheaper by 50bp on the day into early US session, while the UK pound drops to a fresh 27-year low as mounting fiscal stimulus threatens to undermine Bank of England’s control on inflation. US yields are cheaper by 12bp to 5bp across the curve with front-end led losses flattening 2s10s by 3.5bp, 5s30s by 7.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.80%, outperforming gilts by ~20bp in the sector. 

In FX, the dollar rallied broadly, hitting a new all-time high against a currency basket and pushing the euro to a 20-year low wjhile the pound plunged to a fresh 35 year low just above 1.10 after the new UK government unveiled a massive fiscal stimulus plan to boost economic growth, which is sure to send inflation soaring even higher and force the BOE to do even more QT and so on. Safe-haven demand also boosted the greenback amid more signs of a slowing Chinese economy, which raised concerns about the outlook for global economic growth.  

  • Broad dollar strength pushed the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index as much as 0.6% higher, hitting its highest on record going back to 2005
  • The euro fell as much as 0.9% to 0.9751, its weakest level since 2002. The single currency extended losses after sizable stop-loss orders were triggered below 0.9800 and 0.9780, a Europe-based trader says. Options-related bids at $0.9750 and $0.9700 were seen offering near-term support.
  • The pound sank nearly 1% to 1.1151, a 35-year low, pushing the Bloomberg UK Pound Index to its a lifetime high. The UK currency trimmed losses as the UK government announced a massive fiscal stimulus plan to boost economic growth.

“For the USD to weaken meaningfully, the Fed has to get more concerned about growth than inflation-and we are not there yet.” Bank of America analysts write in a note. It adds that, for the euro to start appreciating, “the ECB needs not only to act, but also to communicate forcefully.”

In commodities, WTI drops more than 2% lower to trade just above $80, a level where OPEC+ production cuts are expected. Spot gold falls roughly $9 to trade near $1,662/oz. Spot silver loses 1.1% near $19.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the September flash PMIs for Europe and the US. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, as well as the ECB’s Kazaks and Nagel. Remember the Italian election on Sunday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,752.25
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 145.59
  • MXAPJ down 1.6% to 470.98
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 27,153.83
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,916.12
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 17,933.27
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,088.37
  • Sensex down 1.6% to 58,191.14
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.9% to 6,574.73
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,290.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 396.36
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.93%
  • Euro down 0.8% to $0.9756
  • Brent Futures down 1.9% to $88.75/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,664.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.60% to 112.03

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • BofA Says Cash is King as Investor Pessimism Hits 2008-Era High
  • Goldman Slashes S&P 500 Target Citing Higher Fed Rates Path
  • UK Sets Out Biggest Tax Cuts Since 1988 to Boost Economic Growth
  • Era of Inflation Has Ended -- for Asset Prices on Wall Street
  • Oil Set for Fourth Weekly Loss With Rate Hikes Darkening Outlook
  • Goldman to BofA Throw in the Towel on a Year-End Rally in Europe
  • Treasury Selloff Drives SOFR Spread Toward Record One-Day Drop
  • Wall Street’s Top Banks Are Backing Oil to Stage a Recovery
  • Nasdaq Increases Scrutiny of Small-Cap IPOs After Big Swings
  • Japan Has a Pile of Dollars It Can Tap Before Selling Treasuries
  • Chinese Money Pours Into Offshore Debt After Rare Yield Reversal
  • China Compares Taiwan Independence Push to Charging Rhino
  • China’s Most Locked-Down City Shows Perils of Endless Covid Zero
  • Crypto Outperforms Stocks for a Change as Correlation Breaks
  • Raytheon Beats Lockheed, Boeing on $1 Billion Hypersonic Job
  • Zelle Emerges as Lawmakers’ Surprise Foe at Bank Hearings
  • Alex Jones Renews ‘Deep State’ Claim at Defamation Trial
  • It’s Every Nation for Itself as Dollar Batters Global Currencies
  • Nikola Investor Lost $160,000 on Milton’s Hype, He Tells Jury
  • FedEx to Cut Costs, Hike Rates in Battle Against Flagging Demand
  • With Shelters Overflowing, NYC to Put Up Tents for Migrants
  • Senior-Care Provider Cano Health Said to Weigh Sale
  • Banks Dust Off Lockdown Plans to Beat Possible Power Blackouts

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks were negative in the aftermath of the rush of global central bank rate hikes during 'Super Thursday' and with risk appetite not helped by the absence of participants in Japan for the Autumnal Equinox Day. ASX 200 was heavily pressured on return from yesterday’s national day of mourning closure and took its first opportunity to react to the hawkish FOMC with the tech and consumer-related sectors the worst hit. KOSPI declined with the recent flurry of central bank rate hikes adding to the arguments for the BoK to continue on its hiking cycle as South Korean officials look to avert one-sided currency moves. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp slightly deteriorated throughout the session as the early support from reports regarding Hong Kong and Macau potentially easing restrictions for arrivals gradually waned, while US audit watchdog officials recently arrived in Hong Kong for audit inspections as firms seek to avoid delisting from US exchanges.

Top Asian News

  • White House Indo-Pacific coordinator said China clearly has ambitions in the Pacific which have caused concerns among Pacific Island leaders, according to Reuters.
  • Hong Kong will announce today the end of mandatory hotel quarantine for overseas arrivals, according to SCMP.
  • Japan PM Kishida said excessive yen movement repeatedly caused by speculation cannot be overlooked and they will take action should there be any excessive volatility in the yen, according to Reuters.
  • Yuan Weakens to Near Trading Band Limit as Pressure Mounts
  • China Junk Debt Ends Longest Rally of Year as Distress Mounts
  • Times China Told Bondholders It Hasn’t Paid Interest Due Thurs
  • Peak Pessimism Setting in for Chinese Stocks Ahead of Congress
  • Iron Ore Fluctuates as China Steel Hub Tangshan Lifts Lockdowns
  • JPM Analysts Liken UK Bank Deposit Speculation to Windfall Tax

European bourses are pressured across the board after the Flash PMI releases for the region indicate a contraction; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5% Pressure that was exacerbated, particularly in the UK, on the mini-Budget and subsequent Gilt/BoE pricing, despite the measures being designed to stimulate the economy. Stateside, futures are lower in sympathy and continuing APAC performance awaiting their own PMI metrics and Fed commentary.

Top European News

  • ECB's Kazaks says they will continue to hike rates, via Bloomberg; adds, faster Fed hikes have weakened the EUR. His choice for the October ECB hike is either 50bps or 75bps.
  • UK COVID-19 hospitalisations rose 17% in a week which is the first significant increase since July and is sparking fears of a new wave, according to The Telegraph.
  • Credit Suisse Hits Fresh Low; Denies Report of Looming US Exit
  • UK Probably in Recession as Pound’s Weakness Boosts Inflation
  • UK Bonds Plunge as Debt Office Plans More Sales Than Expected
  • VW Warns of Production Shift From Germany Over Gas Shortage
  • Ericsson Governance Worries Mount After Russia Sales Debacle
  • European Watchdog Backs New Trading Halts for Energy Market

FX

  • DXY has surged to a fresh 112.3+ peak to the detriment of peers across the board with the Yuan taking the strain.
  • GBP dented post-PMIs/budget despite initial support from BoE pricing as the USD's surge continues.
  • Amidst this, EUR has been hit on the flash-PMIs and accompanying commentary around recession fears and a resurgence in price pressures.

Fixed Income

  • Gilts decimated to sub-99.00 from the 102.30 region in wake of the budget and accompanying fund consideration and potential inflationary implications
  • Action that has sparked a surge in BoE pricing with markets now implying a 50/50 chance of a 100bp increase in November.
  • More broadly, EGBs and USTs are dragged down in tandem though seem to have reached a 'floor' ahead of the afternoon's events.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are pressured by pronounced USD strength and risk action amid recessionary fears.
  • Additionally, participants are attentive to potential weekend developments with EU member states set to discuss Russian sanctions.
  • Russian President Putin spoke to Saudi Crown Prince MBS and discussed the question of coordination to ensure stability in the oil market, while they praised efforts within the OPEC+ framework and confirmed the intention to continue sticking to existing agreements, according to Reuters.
  • Metals dented across the board by the USD with base metals in particular hit amid broader sentiment with LME Copper slipping below USD 7.5k/T.

US event calendar

  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 46.1, prior 44.6
  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 45.5, prior 43.7
  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.0, prior 51.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's a bit of a broken record at the moment as markets have again been reeling over the last 24 hours, with another major selloff for bonds and equities taking place after central bankers showed no sign of letting up on their campaign of rate hikes to tackle inflation. The hawkish Fed decision on Wednesday set the backdrop for the slump, but that was compounded by further hikes yesterday in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines. Inturn, that led investors to expect an even more aggressive pace of rate hikes over the months ahead, with current market pricing for each of the Fed, ECB and the BoE indicating that a 75bps hike at the next meeting is now considered the most likely outcome for all three.

In terms of those market moves, equities lost ground across the board as the prospect that tighter monetary policy would trigger recessions moved increasingly into view. The S&P displayed a lot of volatility into the close, ultimately falling -0.84% and moving deeper into bear market territory and on track for its worst annual performance since 2008. Under the hood, sector performance had a consistent macro story, where there was an outperformance in defensives (health care led the way up +0.51%) and an underperformance in cyclicals (discretionary lagged at -2.16%).

In Europe the losses were even more severe as they finally got to react to the Fed’s announcement the previous evening, with the STOXX 600 (-2.09%) actually falling beneath its July lows to close at levels unseen in over 20 months. It's fascinating that there's hardly been any wider mention of the Italian election this Sunday even with the centre-right populists ahead in the polls. There are much bigger things to worry about to be fair and it seems that there is limited political appetite in Italy at the moment to deviate too far from EU fiscal rules. See here for our economists' preview.

The declines mentioned above for equities were just as dramatic for sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr Treasuries surging by +18.4bps to a post-2011 high of 3.71%. That was primarily driven by a rise in real yields, which similarly hit a high for the decade at 1.30%. We did get some positive data on the weekly initial jobless claims, which came in at 213k (vs. 217k expected) for the week ending September 17, and the previous week was revised down -5k. But that just compounded the selloff, since the fact that claims are on a firmly downward trend was seen as giving the Fed even more space to hike rates over the coming months without worrying about a sharp rise in unemployment. Those expectations of additional rate hikes were evident among Fed funds futures, which moved towards the more hawkish FOMC dot plot, with the rate implied by December 2023 up +10.0bps on the day to 4.33%.

Over in Europe it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+7.2bps), OATs (+7.8bps) and BTPs (+3.9bps) seeing fresh rises. Gilts were the biggest underperformer however, with 10yr yields up +18.1bps after the Bank of England hiked by 50bps for a second consecutive meeting, taking Bank Rate up to 2.25%. The decision was a 3-way split among policymakers, with 5 of the 9 MPC members in favour of the 50bp hike, 3 members wanting a larger 75bps move, and 1 wanting a smaller 25bps hike. They also voted (unanimously) to reduce the stock of gilts by £80bn over the next 12 months. Our UK economist sees this decision as slightly hawkish (link here), and sees the BoE as having opened the door for a larger rate hike in November. As a result, he now expects that the MPC will deliver a 75bps hike at the next meeting, although this is a very close call, with the terminal rate still reaching 4% in this hiking cycle.

Staying on the UK, it’s also an important day on the fiscal side as new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will be unveiling the government’s Growth Plan in the House of Commons this morning. Ahead of that, we got confirmation yesterday that the 1.25pp increase in National Insurance (a payrolls tax) is going to be reversed from 6 November. Otherwise, it’s been widely reported that they’ll confirm that corporation tax will remain frozen at 19%, rather than increasing to 25% as had been planned, and recent days have also seen press speculation about a potential cut to stamp duty (the home purchase tax). Our UK economist has a preview of the event here.

On oil, the EU is apparently working on a new effort to impose a price cap on Russian oil in response to President Putin’s escalation and partial mobilisation announcement yesterday. However, the plan will still face hurdles given the dire energy situation in Europe and the need to arrive at an unanimous decision. Elsewhere, the Nigerian oil minister echoed previous remarks from other cartel members by saying OPEC may need to cut output if prices fell more. Brent crude prices were +0.70% higher, after being as much as +3.31% higher intraday but are back roughly to where they were 24 hours ago this morning in Asia.

Looking elsewhere, there was plenty of other monetary action to digest after Japan intervened to support the Yen for the first time since 1998. That came shortly after the BoJ’s latest decision we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which saw the yen weaken above 145 per US Dollar initially, before the intervention led to a sharp pullback that saw the yen close at 142.39. Confirmation came from Masato Kanda, Japan’s top currency official, who said that “The government is concerned about excessive moves in the foreign exchange markets, and we took decisive action just now”. In a statement from the US Treasury, a spokesperson said that “We understand Japan’s action, which it states aims to reduce recent heighted volatility of the yen.” George Saravelos writes here that the intervention is unlikely to work and could lead to an unnecessary loss of reserves and credibility.

Asian equity markets are limping towards a sixth weekly loss this morning. The Kospi (-1.59%) is the largest underperformer across the region mirroring Wall Street losses overnight followed by the Shanghai Composite (-1.08%), CSI (-0.96%) and the Hang Seng (-0.91%). Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday with no trading of cash Treasuries in the Asian trading hours. US stock futures are pointing to further declines today with those on the S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.28%) both down.

Early morning data from Australia showed that the flash manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 53.9 in September from 53.8 in August while the services PMI came in at 50.4 compared to 50.2 in August.

In other news, Japan is ending its Covid-19 restrictions and opening the door back up to mass tourism in a move to revive the nation’s tourism industry as the Covid pandemic recedes. The new policies will come into effect on October 11.

In terms of yesterday’s other data, sentiment wasn’t helped after the European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area fell to a record low of -28.8 in September on the preliminary reading. Bear in mind that series covers both Covid and the GFC so that’s a seriously negative print. Over in the US, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index fell to 1 in September (vs. 5 expected), marking its lowest level since July 2020.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the September flash PMIs for Europe and the US. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, as well as the ECB’s Kazaks and Nagel. Remember the Italian election on Sunday.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/23/2022 - 08:03

Read More

Continue Reading

Bonds

Druckenmiller: “We Are In Deep Trouble… I Don’t Rule Out Something Really Bad”

Druckenmiller: "We Are In Deep Trouble… I Don’t Rule Out Something Really Bad"

For once, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller did…

Published

on

Druckenmiller: "We Are In Deep Trouble... I Don't Rule Out Something Really Bad"

For once, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller did not say anything even remotely controversial when he echoed what we (and Morgan Stanley) have been warning for a long time, and said the Fed's attempt to quickly unwind the excesses it itself built up over the past 13 years with its ultra easy monetary policy will end in tears for the U.S. economy.

“Our central case is a hard landing by the end of ’23,” Druckenmiller said at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Investor Summit in New York City Wednesday. “I would be stunned if we don’t have recession in ’23. I don’t know the timing but certainly by the end of ’23. I will not be surprised if it’s not larger than the so called average garden variety.”

And the legendary investor, who has never had a down year in the markets, fears it could be something even worse. “I don’t rule out something really bad,” he said effectively repeating what we said in April that "Every Fed Hiking Cycle Ends With Default And Bankruptcy Of Governments, Banks And Investors" "

He pointed to massive global quantitative easing that reached $30 trillion as what’s driving the looming recession: “Our central case is a hard landing by the end of next year", he said, adding that we have also had a bunch of myopic policies such as the Treasury running down the savings account, and Biden's irresponsible oil SPR drain.

Repeating something else even the rather slow "transitory bros" and "team MMT" know by now, Druckenmiller said he believes the extraordinary quantitative easing and zero interest rates over the past decade created an asset bubble.

“All those factors that cause a bull market, they’re not only stopping, they’re reversing every one of them,” Druckenmiller said. “We are in deep trouble.”

The Fed is now in the middle of its most aggressive pace of tightening since the 1980s. The central bank last week raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and pledged more hikes to beat inflation, triggering a big sell-off in risk assets. The S&P 500 has taken out its June low and reached a new bear market low Tuesday following a six-day losing streak.

Druckenmiller said the Fed made a policy error - as did we... repeatedly... last summer - when it came up with a “ridiculous theory of transitory,” thinking inflation was driven by supply chain and demand factors largely associated with the pandemic.

“When you make a mistake, you got to admit you’re wrong and move on that nine or 10 months, that they just sat there and bought $120 billion in bonds,” Druckenmiller said. “I think the repercussions of that are going to be with us for a long, long time.”

“You don’t even need to talk about Black Swans to be worried here. To me, the risk reward of owning assets doesn’t make a lot of sense,” Druckenmiller said.

Commenting on recent events, Druck was more upbeat, saying “I like everything I’m hearing out of the Fed and I hope they finish the job,” he said. Now, the tightening has to go all the way. “You have to slay the dragon.” The problem is that, as the BOE demonstrated with its QT to QE pivot today, it's impossible to slay the dragon and sooner or later every central banks fails.

What happens then? According to Druck, once people lose trust in central banks - which at this rate could happen in a few weeks or tomorrow - he expects a cryptocurrency renaissance, something which may already be starting...

... and not just there, but in the original crypto - gold - as well...

Excerpts from his interview below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/28/2022 - 12:26

Read More

Continue Reading

Economics

Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace

  – by New Deal democratThere’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days.Mortgage rates have increased above 7%:This is the highest…

Published

on

 

 - by New Deal democrat

There’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days.


Mortgage rates have increased above 7%:



This is the highest rate since 2008. Needless to say, if it lasts for any period of time it will further damage the housing market.

The yield curve has almost completely inverted from 3 years out (lower bar on left; upper bar shows a similar curve in April 2000, 11 months before the 2001 recession):



As of this morning, the curve is normally sloped from the 3.12% Fed funds rate up through the 3year Treasury, which is yielding 4.22% (which, as an aside, is a mighty tasty temptation to buy medium maturity bonds). Beyond that, with the exception of the 20 year Treasury, each maturity of longer duration is yielding progressively less. If this is like almost all recessions in the last half century, the short end of the yield curve will fully invert (i.e., Fed funds through 2 years as well) before the recession actually begins. Although I won’t show the graph, the yield curve *un*-inverted before the last two recessions even began, immediately or shortly after the Fed began to lower rates again.

On the issue of rents, house prices, and owners equivalent rent, Prof. Paul Krugman follows up on the fact that OER is a lagging measure. Today he touts the monthly decline in new rental lease prices as possibly signaling a downturn in inflation:





He’s referring to the “National Rent Index” from Apartment List, which Bill McBride has also been tracking. Because it tracks rents in only new or renewed leases, it picks up increases or decreases more quickly than those indexes that measure all rentals (including those that were renewed, e.g., 9 months ago).

I don’t think the index is quite the signal Paul Krugman does, because it is not seasonally adjusted, and rents typically decrease in the last 4 months of each year:



Here is the cumulative yearly index for each of the past 5 years:



The -0.1% non-seasonally adjusted decrease in September this year is on par with that of 2018, and less of a decline in September 2019 or 2020. For the first half of this year, rents were increasing at a faster, and accelerating, rate compared with 2018 and 2019. Since June have rent changes been comparable with (and not more negative than) those two years.

I thought I would take a look at Apartment List’s rental index and compare it with the Case Shiller house price index:



Note that house prices broke out to the upside YoY beginning in late spring 2020, while apartment rents did not do so until early 2021. There were rent increase moratoriums in place during the pandemic, which may have affected that comparison. Still, it is cautionary that for the limited 5 year comparison time we do have, house price indexes moved first.

Finally, what would the Fed have done if it had used the Case Shiller index instead of owners equivalent rent in its targeted “core inflation” metric?

Via Mike Sherlock, here’s what the “Case Shiller [total, not core] CPI” looks like through last month:



Here’s another way of looking at the data, comparing the monthly % changes in the Case Shiller national house price index (blue), owners equivalent rent (red, right scale), and core CPI (i.e., minus food and energy) (gold, right scale):



Rent + owner’s equivalent rent are 40% of core inflation. Unsurprisingly, core inflation tends to track similarly to OER. But between May 2021 and May 2022, OER only averaged +0.4% monthly, whereas the Case Shiller index increased 1.5% on average monthly. If 40% of core inflation increased at 1.5% monthly instead of 0.4% monthly, core inflation would have on average been +0.4% higher each month for that entire year.

In other words, the Fed would have had a much earlier warning that an upsurge in core inflation was not going to be “transitory.” 

By contrast, during the last 3 months of the period through July that we have house price index data, OER has averaged +0.4%, whereas house prices have increased on average +0.6%. This would have brought core inflation down by -0.1% each month. If we use the last two months, OER is +0.6% and house prices have been unchanged. Core inflation would have been -0.3% lower in June and July.

In fact, if the trend of the last several months continues, by year end OER is going to be higher than house price appreciation on a YoY as well as m/m basis. And while OER has been increasing, house price indexes have been decelerating. 

In other words, if the Fed keeps raising rates, it is most likely chasing a phantom menace, a lagging indicator which leading measures for which will have already peaked and come down sharply.

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Futures Rebound From 2022 Low After Bank Of England Panics, Restarts Unlimited QE

Futures Rebound From 2022 Low After Bank Of England Panics, Restarts Unlimited QE

With everything biw breaking, including an explosive move…

Published

on

Futures Rebound From 2022 Low After Bank Of England Panics, Restarts Unlimited QE

With everything biw breaking, including an explosive move in bond yields in the UK, 10Y yields rising above 4.00%, and Apple "suddenly" realizing there was not enough demand for the latest iteration of its iPhone 5, it was only a matter of time before some central bank somewhere capitulated and pivoted back to QE, and this morning that's precisely what happened when the BOE delayed the launch of QT and restarted QE "on whatever scale is necessary" on a "temporary and targeted" (lol) basis to restore order, which sent UK bond surging (and yields tumbling the most on record going back to 1996 erasing an earlier jump to the the highest since 1998)...

... the pound first surged before falling back as traders realized the UK now has both rate hikes and QE at the same time, the dollar sliding then spiking, the 10Y US TSY yield dipping from 4.00%, the highest level since 1998, and stock futures spiking from fresh 2022 lows, but then fizzling as traders now demand a similar end to QT/restart of QE from the Fed or else they will similarly break the market.

Needless to say, the BOE has opened up the tap on coming central bank pivots, and while the market may be slow to grasp it, risk is cheap here with a similar QE restarted by the Fed just weeks if not days away. Indeed, look no further than the tumbling odds of a November 75bps rate hike as confirmation.

As if the BOE's pivot wasn't enough, there was also a barrage of company specific news: in premarket trading, the world's biggest company, Apple tumbled 3.9% after a Bloomberg report said the company was likely to ditch its iPhone production boost, citing people familiar with the matter. Shares of suppliers to Apple also fell in premarket trading after the report, with Micron Technology (MU US) down -1.9%, Qualcomm (QCOM US) -1.8%, Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US) -1.6%. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Biogen shares surged as much as 71% in US premarket trading, with the drugmaker on track for its biggest gain since its 1991 IPO if the move holds, as analysts lauded results of an Alzheimer’s drug study with partner Eisai.
  • Lockheed drops as much as 2.3% in premarket trading as it was downgraded to underweight at Wells Fargo, which is taking a more cautious view on the defense sector on a likely difficult US budget environment into 2023.
  • Mind Medicine slid 35% in premarket trading after an offering of shares priced at $4.25 apiece, representing a 31% discount to last close.
  • Watch insurers, utilities and travel stocks as Hurricane Ian comes closer to making landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast.
  • Keep an eye on southeastern US utilities including NextEra Energy (NEE US), Entergy (ETR US), Duke Energy (DUK US), insurers like AIG (AIG US), Chubb (CB US), as well as airline stocks
  • Netflix (NFLX US) was raised to overweight from neutral at Atlantic Equities, the latest in a slew of brokers to turn bullish on the outlook for the streaming giant’s new ad- supported tier, though the stock was little changed in premarket trading

In other news, Hurricane Ian became a dangerous Category 4 storm as it roars toward Florida, threatening to batter the Gulf Coast with devastating wind gusts and floods.

European stocks dropped for a fifth day as Citigroup strategists said investors are abandoning the region at levels last seen during the euro area debt crisis. Miners underperformed as the strong dollar and concerns about demand for raw materials sent commodity prices to the lowest level since January. Retail stocks slumped, with the sector underperforming declines for the broader Stoxx 600, as concerns mount about a consumer spending crunch. UK retail stocks are particularly weak amid Britain’s market meltdown and after online clothing retailer Boohoo issued a profit warning. Boohoo cut its guidance for the year, with soaring energy and food bills stopping consumers from splashing out on clothes and shoes; peers including Asos (-7.5%) and Zalando (-3.5%) sank. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Roche gains as much as 6.5% in early trading, most since March 2020 after Eisai and partner Biogen said their drug significantly slowed Alzheimer’s disease. Roche partner MorphoSys rises as much as 22%. BioArctic jumps as much as 171% in Wednesday trading, its biggest intraday rise since 2018; the Swedish biopharma company is a partner of Eisai
  • Sanofi shares rise as much as 2.2% after saying it sees currency impact of approximately 10%-11% on 3Q sales, according to statement.
  • Burberry rises as much as 4.5% as analysts welcome the appointment of Daniel Lee, formerly of Bottega Veneta, to succeed Riccardo Tisci as creative director at the luxury designer.
  • Retail stocks slide, with the sector underperforming declines for the broader Stoxx 600, as concerns mount about a consumer spending crunch. Boohoo slumped as much as 18% after cutting its guidance for the year, with soaring energy and food bills stopping consumers from splashing out on clothes and shoes; peers fell, with Asos down as much as 9.4% and Zalando -4.3%.
  • Financial sectors including banks, real estate and insurance were the worst performers in Europe on Wednesday as hawkish comments from Fed officials stoked concerns over the economic outlook. HSBC fell as much as 5.3%, Barclays 6%, and insurer Aviva 7.9%
  • Norway unveiled a plan to tap power and fish companies for 33 billion kroner ($3 billion) a year to cover ballooning budget expenditures, sending salmon farmers’ stocks falling. Salmar down as much as 30%, Leroy Seafood dropped as much as 26%, and Mowi slid as much as 21%
  • Truecaller, which offers an app to block unwanted phone calls, falls as much as 23% in Stockholm after short seller Viceroy Research says it’s betting against the stock.

Adding to concerns, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing predicted a severe downturn in the lender’s home region and said the volatility whipsawing markets will continue for another year as central banks tighten rates to fight inflation, while ECB President Christine Lagarde said borrowing costs will be raised at the next “several meetings,” with several Governing Council  members favoring a 75 basis point hike in October.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe surged after Russia said it may cut off supplies via Ukraine and the German Navy was deployed to investigate the suspected sabotage to the Nord Stream pipelines. Putin moved to annex a large chunk of Ukrainian territory amid a string of military setbacks in its seven-month-old invasion.

Asian shares also fell: Japanese equities slumped after the latest hawkish comments from Fed officials on raising interest rates in order to bring inflation down. The Topix fell 1% to close at 1,855.15, while the Nikkei declined 1.5% to 26,173.98. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 1.6%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 943 rose and 1,137 fell, while 89 were unchanged. “From here on, U.S. CPI inflation will be the most important factor,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. “Now that the FOMC meeting is over, we will be getting a good amount of statements from Fed officials, and wondering what kind of statements will come out.”

Key equity gauges in India posted their longest stretch of declines in more than three months, as investors continued to sell stocks across global markets on worries over economic growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.9% to 56,598.28 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index fell by an equal measure. The indexes posted their sixth-consecutive decline, the worst losing streak since mid-June. Fourteen of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined. Metals and banking stocks were the worst performers. Healthcare and software firms gained.  Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline. Reliance Industries has erased its gain for the year and is headed for its lowest close since March. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 12 rose, while 18 fell

In FX, the dollar’s rally brought losses to other currencies, including the euro and onshore yuan, which tumbled to its weakest level since 2008. A regulatory body guided by the People’s Bank of China urged banks to protect the authority of the yuan fixing after the onshore yuan fell to the weakest level against the dollar since the global financial crisis in 2008, amid an incessant advance in the greenback and speculation China is toning down its support for the local currency.  The yen remained near the key 145 mark versus the dollar and within sight of levels that have drawn intervention from Japan. Speculation the sliding yen will compel Japan to intervene further, potentially funded by Treasuries sales, weighed on US debt.

“The fact we have such a strong increase in US yields is attracting flows into the US dollar,” said Nanette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, chief investment officer of international wealth management for Credit Suisse Group AG. “As long as monetary and fiscal policy worldwide are really not coming to strengthen their own currencies, we should be anticipating a very strong dollar.”

In rates, Treasury yields fell, following a more aggressive bull flattening move across the gilt curve, after Bank of England announced it would step into the market and buy long-dated government bonds, financed with new reserves. The Treasury curve remains steeper on the day however, with front-end yields richer by 7bp and long-end slightly cheaper. US session focus on 7-year note auction and a barrage of Fed speakers scheduled.  Treasury 10-year yields around 3.93%, richer by 1.5bp on the day and underperforming gilts by around 25bp in the sector -- gilts curve richer by 3bp to 50bp on the day from front-end out to long-end following Bank of England announcement. US auctions conclude with $36b 7-year note sale at 1pm, follows soft 2- and 5-year auctions so far this week

In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, falling 0.5% to around $78.14. Spot gold falls roughly $11 to trade near $1,618/oz. 

Looking to the day ahead, there are an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Bowman, Barkin and Evans, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Kazimir, Holzmann and Elderson, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the BoE’s Dhingra. In the meantime, data releases include pending home sales for August.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,637
  • MXAP down 1.9% to 139.41
  • MXAPJ down 2.3% to 452.49
  • Nikkei down 1.5% to 26,173.98
  • Topix down 1.0% to 1,855.15
  • Hang Seng Index down 3.4% to 17,250.88
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,045.07
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 56,939.09
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,462.03
  • Kospi down 2.5% to 2,169.29
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 382.97
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $0.9561
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $85.94/bbl
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $85.94/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,619.74
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.36% to 114.52

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde said borrowing costs will be raised at the next “several meetings” to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored and price gains return to the 2% target over the medium term
  • The ECB is on track to take interest rates to a level that no longer stimulates the economy by December, Governing Council member Olli Rehn told Reuters
  • Germany’s federal government will increase debt sales by €22.5 billion ($21.5 billion) in the fourth quarter compared with an original plan to help fund generous spending to offset the impact of the energy crisis
  • The cost of protection against European corporate debt has surpassed the pandemic peak as investors fret over the effect of central bank tightening at a time of mounting recession risk
  • The Federal Reserve’s delicate balance between curbing demand enough to slow inflation without causing a recession is a “struggle,” said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • This week a gauge of one-month volatility in the majors hit its strongest level since the pandemic mayhem of March 2020, as wide price swings in the pound lifted hedging costs across the G-10 space
  • Moscow declared landslide victories in the hastily organized “referendums” it held in the territories currently occupied by its forces and prepared to absorb them within days. The United Nations has condemned the voting as illegal with people at times forced at gunpoint.

 

 

 

 

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.8%
  • 08:30: Aug. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1%
    • Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
  • 08:30: Aug. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$89b, prior -$89.1b, revised - $90.2b
  • 10:00: Aug. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -1.5%, prior -1.0%
    • Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -24.5%, prior -22.5%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 08:35: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Moderated Q&A
  • 10:10: Fed’s Bullard Makes Welcome Remarks at Community Banking...
  • 10:15: Powell Gives Welcoming Remarks at Community Banking Conference
  • 11:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Community Banking Conference
  • 11:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Chamber of Commerce Lunch
  • 14:00: Fed’s Evans Speaks at the London School of Economics

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I had my worst nightmare yesterday. One of my wife's friends, who vaguely knows I work in financial markets, urgently contacted me for mortgage advise. She needed to make a decision within hours on what mortgage to take out from a selection of unpalatable options here in the UK. I'll be honest, when I speak to you dear readers and give advice I know you're all big and brave enough to either ignore it or consider it. However it felt very dangerous to be giving my wife's friend my opinion. Hopefully they'll be no fall out at the end of the period I advised on!

After the tumultuous events of recent days, market volatility has remained very high over the last 24 hours, with plenty of negative headlines to keep investors alert. In Europe, we got a fresh reminder about the energy situation after leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, whilst Gazprom warned that sanctions on Ukraine’s Naftogaz could put flows from Russia at risk. In the meantime, investors’ jitters surrounding the UK showed few signs of abating, with 30yr gilt yields surpassing 5% in trading for the first time since 2002 and a level it hasn't consistently been above since 1998. And even though we got some better-than-expected data releases from the US, they were also seen as giving the Fed more space to keep hiking rates over months ahead, adding to fears that they still had plenty of hawkish medicine left to deliver.

We’ll start here in the UK, since it was gilts once again that were at the epicentre of the ongoing repricing in rates, with plenty of signs that investors remain very nervous about the current economic situation. Gilt yields rose to fresh highs across the curve, with the selloff accelerating late in the session to leave the 10yr yield up by +26.1bps at a post-2008 high of 4.50%. Furthermore, the 30yr yield surged +44.8bps to a post-2007 high of 4.97%, closing just beneath the 5% mark that it had exceeded at one point right before the close. This for me is a fascinating development as recently as last December we were at 0.83% and then 2.28% in early August. For many many years the demand for long end gilts were seen as one of the most price insensitive assets in the fixed income world with huge regulatory and asset/liability buying. So the fact that even this has cracked shows the deep trouble the UK market is in at the moment. The moves have been so drastic that even the IMF announced yesterday they were closely monitoring developments in Britain and were engaged with UK authorities. Their rebuke was quite scathing.

Staying in the UK, there was an even more significant repricing of real yields, with the 10yr real yield surging by another +52.9bps on the day to 0.77%, having been at -0.84% only a week earlier, so a massive turnaround. Sterling ended a run of 5 consecutive daily losses to strengthen by +0.41% against the US Dollar, taking it back up to $1.073. However it was higher before the IMF statement and is at $1.065 this morning with their rebuke reverberating around markets.

Whilst UK assets continued to struggle, we did hear from BoE Chief Economist Pill yesterday, who sits on the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee. The main headline from his remarks was the comment that “this will require a significant monetary policy response”. Investors are still pricing in over +155bps worth of hikes by the next meeting on November 3, as well as a terminal rate above 6% next year. However, investors also continued to lower the chances of an emergency inter-meeting hike, particularly after Pill said that it was better to take a “considered” and “low-frequency” approach to monetary policy.

Elsewhere in Europe, the question of energy remained top of the agenda yesterday, with a fresh surge in natural gas futures (+19.65%) that marked a reversal to the declines over the last month. That followed the news of leaks from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which officials across multiple countries said could be the result of sabotage. Danish PM Frederiksen said that it was” hard to imagine that these are coincidences” and the FT reported German officials who said there was concern that a “targeted attack” had caused the sudden loss of pressure. A real nightmare scenario is if the sabotage attempts extended to other pipelines. Indeed Bloomberg reported that Norway was looking to increase security around its own infrastructure. However these pipes are long so it would take a lot of effort to protect them all.

On top of the leaks, we also heard from Gazprom, who said that there was a risk that Moscow would sanction Ukraine’s Naftogaz. That would stop them from paying transit fees, which in turn would put gas flows to Europe at risk, and led to a significant jump in prices after the news came through later in the session.

Against that unfavourable backdrop, European assets continued to suffer over the last 24 hours across multiple asset classes. Sovereign bonds didn’t do quite as badly as gilts, but it was still a very poor performance by any normal day’s standards, with yields on 10yr bunds (+11.3bps) reaching a post-2010 high of 2.22%. Peripheral spreads continued to widen as well, with the gap between 10yr Italian yields over bunds closing above 250bps for the first time since April 2020. In the meantime, equities lost ground thanks to a late session reversal, leaving the STOXX 600 (-0.13%) at its lowest level since December 2020. And there was little respite for credit either, with the iTraxx Crossover widening +15.2bps to 670bps, which is a closing level we haven’t seen since March 2020.

On top of sour risk sentiment, results from Russia’s referendum in four Ukrainian territories unsurprisingly revealed lopsided votes in favour of Russian annexation, topping 85% in each of the regions. That stoked fears that Russia will move to officially annex the territories as soon as this week, thereby claiming any attack on those territories is an attack on sovereign Russia itself and enabling yet further escalation. President Putin is scheduled to address both houses of the Russian Parliament this Friday, which British intelligence reports may be used as a venue to push through an official annexation ratification.

Over in the US, there was some better news on the data side that helped to allay fears about an imminent slide into recession. First, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for September rose to 108.0 (vs. 104.6 expected), which is its highest level since April. Second, new home sales in August unexpectedly rebounded to an annualised pace of 685k (vs. 500k expected), which is their highest level since March. Third, the preliminary durable goods orders for August were roughly in line with expectations at -0.2% (vs. -0.3% expected), and core capital goods orders exceeded them with +1.3% growth (vs. +0.2% expected) and a positive revision to the previous month. Finally, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for September came in at 0 (vs. -10 expected), adding to that theme of stronger-than-expected releases. A word of caution, the housing data is typically noisy and subject to revision, so despite the bounce in sales, we don’t think this marks a sea-change in housing markets, which have been battered by tightening financial conditions to date.

In the end however, those data releases didn’t manage to stop the S&P 500 (-0.21%) losing ground for a 6th consecutive session, which takes the index back to its lowest closing level since November 2020. In fact for the Dow Jones (-0.43%), yesterday’s losses left it at its lowest closing level since 6 November 2020. That was the last trading session before the news on Monday 9 November from Pfizer that their late-stage vaccine trials had been successful, thus triggering a massive global surge as the way out of the pandemic became much clearer. All-in-all though, equities were a side show to fixed income yesterday.

When it came to Treasuries, there was a notable steepening in both the nominal and real yield curves yesterday, and 10yr yields ended the session up +2.1bps at 3.95%. This morning in Asia 10yr yields did trade at 4% for the first time since 2010 before dipping to around 3.98% as I type. In terms of Fed speak yesterday, we heard from Chicago Fed President Evans, who implied that the Fed might take stock of the impact of rate hikes in the spring, saying that “By spring of next year we are going to get to a funds rate that we can sort of sit and watch how things are behaving,” In the meantime, St Louis Fed President Bullard (one of the most hawkish members of the FOMC) said that inflation was a serious problem and that the credibility of the Fed’s inflation target was at risk.

This morning Asian equity markets are extending their downtrend. As I type, The Kospi (-3.01%) is sharply lower in early trade with the Hang Seng (-2.40%), the Nikkei (-2.21%), the CSI (-0.77%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.75%) all trading in negative territory.

After a steady start, US stock futures got caught up in the bearish mood with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.71%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.98%) both moving lower.Apple reversing plans for an iPhone production boost on waning demand seemed to be a catalyst. The US dollar index (+0.43%) has hit a fresh two-decade high of 114.69 this morning.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s August retail sales advanced for the eighth consecutive month, rising +0.6% m/m, faster than the +0.4% increase expected although the pace of growth slowed from the +1.3% rise seen in July.

To the day ahead now, and there are an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Bowman, Barkin and Evans, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Kazimir, Holzmann and Elderson, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the BoE’s Dhingra. In the meantime, data releases include Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for October, and France and Italy’s consumer confidence reading for September. In the US, there’s also pending home sales data for August.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/28/2022 - 07:53

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending