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From Container Prices To Inflation Expectations And The Yield Curve, They All Dwell On October

This thing, this massive supply disruption is a perfect example of a positive feedback loop. It began with government (over)reaction to COVID, as noted…

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This thing, this massive supply disruption is a perfect example of a positive feedback loop. It began with government (over)reaction to COVID, as noted here impacting both supply and demand. Those two curves have behaved in classic fashion, inelastic supply unable to efficiently respond to an artificial outward shift in demand. The resulting impact price-wise as pure economics (small “e”).

A huge piece of inelastic supply, though, came to be tied to – or tied up in – the general conveyance of goods moving through the supply chain. It may have been difficult for producers to initially crank their efforts back up, yet they managed to do so at any rate. As they did, however, the initial imbalance completely changed the dynamics insofar as shipping goods especially into the US via its West Coast operations.

As the demand for goods came back, quite naturally the demand for shipping goods rose, too. The price of shipping like those for goods responded positively, particularly the rate paid to use containers. At some point rather early on last year, the container price soared enough to cause some shippers to rethink their activities – and not in a good way, systemically speaking.

Typically, their big boats offload cargo coming in from China and Asia but then wait around to take back with them some US exports along with a whole bunch of empties. With backups plaguing these same facilities, and with container prices exploding, carriers began to sail out of LA or Long Beach without waiting around.

Given how high shipping rates had gone, you could understand why ship owners weren’t too interested in having their ships sit in port waiting around for empties to be loaded – and no real idea how long this would take. Rather than wait, leave port as soon as possible so as to squeeze another sailing from China back to the US taking full advantage of such high shipping and container prices.

Freightos Global Container Index (FBX) https://fbx.freightos.com/


The economics practically demanded this positive feedback loop.

These so-called blank sailings caused more empty containers to pile up, adding to the difficulties Chinese exporters were experiencing in order to obtain them. Prices for containers skyrocketed even more, adding to the already-fat incentives for shippers to conduct blank sailings, stranding thousands upon thousands of additional empty containers around the LA region.

The more the empties piled up, the higher the delays (and not just for boats, also trucks and railroad cars who had to offload an empty in order to then take a full one coming in), adding to the self-reinforcing cycle of blank sailings.

“Our biggest problem by far is empty shipping containers,” Matt Schrap, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association, a coalition of intermodal carriers serving America’s West Coast ports, told Xinhua. “They are the bottleneck that is sinking the global supply chain.”

With Christmas “forced” to come early, anyone and everyone convinced to get holiday business done well in advance to ensure some level of availability for rabid US consumers, it all came to a climax around late October.

It was around that same time authorities decided action was needed to do something about the container imbalance. LA’s Harbor Commission unanimously voted to implement a “dwell fee”, announced on October 25.

For any container moved by truck, after “dwelling” idle for nine days authorities would impose this $100 fee (six days for containers going by rail). For every additional dwell day, the cost goes up another $100 per.

However, though it was approved months ago, the Commission’s escalating surcharge scheme has never been implemented. Each time the topic comes up, it gets pushed back and held back as a threat. For one thing, dating back to late October, the number of empties has substantially declined and so have stranded cargoes.

The so-called dwell time a container sits around on average before it gets picked up has fallen by more than half from late October and there are no longer dozens of ships at anchor outside the ports waiting for weeks before they can berth and offload their cargo.

While some of the reduction in the logjam of boats lazing off the West Coast can be attributed to better traffic management (having inbound vessels slow down and take slightly longer in transit), the knock-on effects have been widespread.

Going back to when the fee was initially rolled out on October 25, POLA [Port of LA] and POLB [Port of Long Beach] said that the ports have seen a cumulative 62% decline in the amount of aging cargo on their docks, a tally which has trended up going back to the initial announcement of this fee.

And the estimated number of vacant containers at LA alone has been cut from 90,000 down to around 72,000 as of mid-January.

The trend in container prices has confirmed the general outlines of this West Coast case. And all of this was predicted by one shipping insider interviewed by the Financial Times’ John Dizard all the way back…in October.

“Lars Jensen, a container specialist with Vespucci Maritime in Copenhagen, did very well during the pandemic. I caught him in Kenya just as he was disconnecting from the grid for a long anticipated safari. ‘I would agree with you that it’s over,’ he said.”

There remains a long way to go in more completely untangling this mess (and this is only part of it, a big part, sure, though far from the whole problem). To that end, one expert I spoke to today said to expect the dwell fee to be imposed in the near future. And if it does get activated, presume even more diligence on the part of domestic parties.

With shipping contributing so much to last year’s “inflation” (supply shock, not money) via inelasticity and the self-reinforcing cost(s) spiral, so many indications pointing to October as a possible apex in this harmful trend, could the slowly emerging downside thereby explain all of these:


After all, the higher oil prices kept going since December, the more you’d otherwise expect TIPS market inflation expectations to track closely with them. They’ve gone the other way.

There’s also more than a tiny hint of demand behind the thus far limited though clear improvement in the supply situation. It’s not just market-based inflation expectations which have correlated with the favorable macro trend in container prices, blank sails, and fewer empties; the flattening yield curve would also suggest the potential for softer demand to contribute its own to the probabilities for lower and transitory “inflation.”

All of which risks leaving Jay Powell out in the dark, cold night of a what he today worries is an overheating economy. Even the market reaction to last week’s payroll report nicely fits in with all these factors; the mess of labor market data will only encourage the FOMC’s rate hikes while at the same time many points in the real economy aren’t at all following along that interpretation. Including payrolls. 

The net result is flat and then flat some more. 

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There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

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According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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This is the biggest money mistake you’re making during travel

A retail expert talks of some common money mistakes travelers make on their trips.

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Travel is expensive. Despite the explosion of travel demand in the two years since the world opened up from the pandemic, survey after survey shows that financial reasons are the biggest factor keeping some from taking their desired trips.

Airfare, accommodation as well as food and entertainment during the trip have all outpaced inflation over the last four years.

Related: This is why we're still spending an insane amount of money on travel

But while there are multiple tricks and “travel hacks” for finding cheaper plane tickets and accommodation, the biggest financial mistake that leads to blown travel budgets is much smaller and more insidious.

A traveler watches a plane takeoff at an airport gate.

Jeshoots on Unsplash

This is what you should (and shouldn’t) spend your money on while abroad

“When it comes to traveling, it's hard to resist buying items so you can have a piece of that memory at home,” Kristen Gall, a retail expert who heads the financial planning section at points-back platform Rakuten, told Travel + Leisure in an interview. “However, it's important to remember that you don't need every souvenir that catches your eye.”

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According to Gall, souvenirs not only have a tendency to add up in price but also weight which can in turn require one to pay for extra weight or even another suitcase at the airport — over the last two months, airlines like Delta  (DAL) , American Airlines  (AAL)  and JetBlue Airways  (JBLU)  have all followed each other in increasing baggage prices to in some cases as much as $60 for a first bag and $100 for a second one.

While such extras may not seem like a lot compared to the thousands one might have spent on the hotel and ticket, they all have what is sometimes known as a “coffee” or “takeout effect” in which small expenses can lead one to overspend by a large amount.

‘Save up for one special thing rather than a bunch of trinkets…’

“When traveling abroad, I recommend only purchasing items that you can't get back at home, or that are small enough to not impact your luggage weight,” Gall said. “If you’re set on bringing home a souvenir, save up for one special thing, rather than wasting your money on a bunch of trinkets you may not think twice about once you return home.”

Along with the immediate costs, there is also the risk of purchasing things that go to waste when returning home from an international vacation. Alcohol is subject to airlines’ liquid rules while certain types of foods, particularly meat and other animal products, can be confiscated by customs. 

While one incident of losing an expensive bottle of liquor or cheese brought back from a country like France will often make travelers forever careful, those who travel internationally less frequently will often be unaware of specific rules and be forced to part with something they spent money on at the airport.

“It's important to keep in mind that you're going to have to travel back with everything you purchased,” Gall continued. “[…] Be careful when buying food or wine, as it may not make it through customs. Foods like chocolate are typically fine, but items like meat and produce are likely prohibited to come back into the country.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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