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For The Second Straight Month, The Fed Bought Zero Bond ETFs

For The Second Straight Month, The Fed Bought Zero Bond ETFs

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For The Second Straight Month, The Fed Bought Zero Bond ETFs Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2020 - 19:50

For much of the past seven months, the biggest story in capital markets was the Fed's Blackrock-mediated purchases of corporate bonds, either in the primary or secondary market or via ETFs.

As a reminder, while the Fed pre-announced its intention to purchase up to $750BN in corporate bond (including certain fallen-angel junk bonds) in March, it started purchasing bonds in May, and bond ETFs in June (among which such mainstays as LQD and HYG). By directly entering the corporate bond market - something none of his predecessors dared to do even at the depths of the financial crisis  - Powell created what many - us included - said the biggest corporate and junk bond bubble in history, because by backstopping prices the Fed terminally disconnected fundamentals from prices.

And, as expected, bond prices, stocks, and ETFs all surged while yields plunged, even while the underlying cash flow fundamentals deteriorated as everyone was trying to front-run the Fed’s pending or concurrent massive purchases. In other words, by jawboning alone, the Fed accomplished its handiwork.

Yet something odd happened last month: in all of August, when during the peak summer doldrums it was SoftBank's turn to steal the spotlight with its now infamous gamma meltup, the Fed did not buy a single ETF, and barely bought any corporate bonds, which prompted us to ask: is Powell sending markets a message?

In retrospect it appears he was, because after an early swoon in the first days of September, stocks suffered their first major bout of turbulence since June last month when they closed in the red for the first time since the covid pandemic broke out.

So fast forward to today when the Fed released the latest monthly activity details under its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility when we find that for the second month in a row, the Fed bought zero corporate ETFs...

... and logically, the number of ETF shares held was unchanged for the second consecutive month:

Looking at the bond level data showed a similar picture: here the Fed or rather Blackrock was just a bit busier, and bought just $420 million par value of bonds between Aug 31 and Sept 29, after purchasing just $421 million the month prior.

However, unlike August when Blackrock purchased $7 million in Apple bonds across three CUSIPs with maturity dates in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Why the Fed continues to buy Apple bonds - which are arguably the most liquid corporate bonds in the world - remains a mystery.

In any case, the modest September purchases, the Fed's total corporate bond holdings rose by $394 million from $3.988 billion to 4.382 billion, an amount which also included the redemptions of several issues.  And when combined with its $8.618 billion in ETF holdings, this means that as of August 31, the Fed owned just over $13 billion in bonds and ETFs.

Why is this notable?

Because this $13BN of bond purchases to date is a long way away from the $750BN figure the Fed initially said it was targeting and is far below the bogey the market has in mind. , as Johnson says "is currently in market participants psyche (i.e., 1.8% of what many continue to think the Fed will spend)".

What are the implications?

The fact that the Fed stopped supporting the corporate bond ETF market during August and then again in September, appears to be a rather stark - if still unspoken - reversal in Fed policy stance, and one which we wish a "financial reporter" had asked Chair Powell to explain why during last month's FOMC conference.

The key question, as we asked one month ago, "could it be that the Fed is starting to telegraph to the market that it moved too far, too fast? We hope to have the answer one month from today when we will learn if the Fed bought no ETFs for 3 consecutive months, and remember: "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action."

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Economics

DryEyeRhythm: A reliable, valid, and non-invasive app to assess dry eye disease

Dry eye disease (DED) is a condition characterized by an array of different symptoms, including dryness, ocular discomfort, fatigue, and visual disturbances….

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Dry eye disease (DED) is a condition characterized by an array of different symptoms, including dryness, ocular discomfort, fatigue, and visual disturbances. This condition has become increasingly common in recent years owing to an aging society, increased screen time, and a highly stressful social environment. There are about 1 billion people, worldwide, who have DED. Undiagnosed and untreated DED can lead to a variety of symptoms, including ocular fatigue, sensitivity to light, lower vision quality, and a lower quality of life. Given the widespread prevalence of the condition, this can further lead to reduced work productivity and economic loss.

Credit: Juntendo University

Dry eye disease (DED) is a condition characterized by an array of different symptoms, including dryness, ocular discomfort, fatigue, and visual disturbances. This condition has become increasingly common in recent years owing to an aging society, increased screen time, and a highly stressful social environment. There are about 1 billion people, worldwide, who have DED. Undiagnosed and untreated DED can lead to a variety of symptoms, including ocular fatigue, sensitivity to light, lower vision quality, and a lower quality of life. Given the widespread prevalence of the condition, this can further lead to reduced work productivity and economic loss.

 

Despite the obvious disadvantages of DED, a large portion of the population remains undiagnosed, which ultimately leads to increased disease severity. DED is currently diagnosed through a series of questionnaires and ocular examinations (which can be invasive). But this method of diagnosis is not ideal. DED examinations do not always correspond with  patients’ subjective DED symptoms. Furthermore, non-invasive and non-contact dry eye examinations are required in the COVID-19 pandemic. These flaws point to a need for a simple, reliable, and accessible screening method for DED to improve diagnosis and prognosis of the disease.

 

To answer this need, a research group, led by Professor Akira Murakami and Associate Professor Takenori Inomata of the Juntendo University Graduate School of Medicine, developed a smartphone application called DryEyeRhythm. “DryEyeRhythm leverages the cameras in smartphones to measure users’ blink characteristics and determine maximum blink interval (MBI)—a substitute for tear film breakup time, an important diagnostic criterion of DED,” explains Associate Prof. Inomata. “The app also administers Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) questionnaires, which are also a crucial component of DED diagnosis.

 

To validate the usefulness of the app, the research team conducted a prospective, cross-sectional, observational, single-center study, the results of which have been published in

The Ocular Surface (available online on 25 April 2022 and published in volume 25 in July 2022).

 

For their study, the team recruited 82 patients, aged 20 years or older, who visited the ophthalmology outpatient clinic at the Juntendo University Hospital between July 2020 and May 2021. The participants completed the Japanese version of the OSDI questionnaire (J-OSDI) and underwent examinations for MBI, both via the app and via other analysis techniques.

 

The study revealed that the J-OSDI collected with DryEyeRhythm showed good internal consistency. Moreover, the app-based questionnaire and MBI yielded significantly higher discriminant validity. The app also showed good positive and negative predictive values, with 91.3% and 69.1%, respectively. The area under the Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve—a measure of clinical sensitivity and specificity—for the concurrent use of the app-based J-OSDI and MBI was also high, with a value of 0.910. These results demonstrate that the app is a reliable, valid, and moreover non-invasive, instrument for assessing DED.

 

Non-contact and non-invasive DED diagnostic assistance, like the kind provided by DryEyeRhythm, could help facilitate the early diagnosis and treatment of patients, as well as, DED treatment through telemedicine and online medical care,” says Associate Prof. Inomata. The research team plans to further validate its results by conducting a multi-institutional collaborative study in the future. They are also planning to obtain medical device approval and insurance reimbursement for the smartphone application.

 

The development of DryEyeRhythm is crucial step forward toward the management of DED and improving vision and quality of life among the population.


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Economics

Global IPO market continues to plummet as Q3 draws to a close

Global IPO market continues to plummet as Q3 draws to a close
PR Newswire
LONDON, Sept. 28, 2022

Global IPO volumes fell 44%, with proceeds down by 57% nine-month YOYUS market is set to record its lowest IPO proceeds since 2003Highest volume of IPO…

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Global IPO market continues to plummet as Q3 draws to a close

PR Newswire

  • Global IPO volumes fell 44%, with proceeds down by 57% nine-month YOY
  • US market is set to record its lowest IPO proceeds since 2003
  • Highest volume of IPOs is in technology and energy sector now leading on proceeds

LONDON, Sept. 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Year-to-date (YTD) 2022, there have been a total of 992 IPOs raising US$146b, a 44% and 57% decrease year-over-year (YOY), respectively. This follows the trend for the year in which IPO companies and investors were faced with mounting macroeconomic challenges, market uncertainties, increasing volatility and falling global equity prices. Volatility (CBOE VIX average) increased from 19.7 in 2021 to 25.6 in YTD 2022.

YTD, the technology sector continued to lead by number of IPOs, although the average deal size came down from US$261m to US$123m YOY. While the energy sector overtook by proceeds with the largest increase of 176%, driven largely by three of the global top five deals in YTD 2022, the consumer products sector witnessed the biggest drop in average deal size (69%).

Q3 2022 saw the lowest SPAC IPO proceeds since Q3 2016, along with de-SPACs struggling to find the right targets. The SPAC market was continually challenged this quarter with only 17 deals, raising US$0.9b. A record number of existing SPACs are actively seeking targets, with the majority facing potential expiration in the next year. These and other findings were published today by EY.

Overall regional performance: taking a wait-and-see approach

Major economies and financial markets in the Americas and EMEIA remain under pressure as quantitative tightening kicks into a higher gear.

Americas exchanges saw the sharpest decline, recording only 116 deals raising US$7.5b YTD, a decrease of 94% in proceeds and 72% in volume YOY. In direct contrast to a record-breaking year in 2021, YTD Americas IPO activity sank to its lowest level in 20 years.

YOY, EMEIA IPO activity fell by 50% and 52% by number and proceeds, respectively. Europe dropped 76% in proceeds, but the Middle East continued to be a rare bright spot with a 209% increase in proceeds, despite a 51% decrease in the number of deals.

As the region has been less impacted by inflation and geopolitical issues, Asia-Pacific exchanges have performed relatively better, housing five of the top 10 global IPOs in YTD. YTD it has also contributed 61% and 69% of the global share of IPOs and proceeds, respectively. However, it still registered YOY declines of 25% by deal number and 22% by deal size.

Paul Go, EY Global IPO Leader, says:

"With uncertainties being the IPO market's biggest challenge, companies and investors continue to wait for a more stable and positive stock market sentiment before any sustained appetite for IPO activity re-emerges."

Q4 2022 outlook: icebreakers will pave the way

Soaring inflation and rising interest rates are adversely affecting the global equity market. Geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic led to more market uncertainty and volatility. All these factors are bringing headwinds for risk assets as we near the end of 2022.

In the Americas, IPO pipelines are waiting for the market to reopen next year, and in EMEIA, tough market conditions continue to squeeze IPO windows. For APAC, while public filings for IPOs have not picked up, activity remains strong in the background as companies evaluate their options for 2023.

Go says: "Many companies' IPO plans were put on ice in early 2022, in anticipation of more favorable market conditions. Providing market uncertainties and volatility subside, the launch of long-awaited blockbuster IPOs together with improved after-market returns may reverse the sentiment and attract more companies to follow."

Overall, IPO candidates looking to go public will need to be well prepared when re-engaging the market as they will face much lower valuations compared with the highs of 2021.

Notes to editors

About EY

EY exists to build a better working world, helping to create long-term value for clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets.  

Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and operate.  

Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today. 

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. 

This news release has been issued by EYGM Limited, a member of the global EY organization that also does not provide any services to clients. 

About EY Private

As Advisors to the ambitious™, EY Private professionals possess the experience and passion to support private businesses and their owners in unlocking the full potential of their ambitions. EY Private teams offer distinct insights born from the long EY history of working with business owners and entrepreneurs. These teams support the full spectrum of private enterprises including private capital managers and investors and the portfolio businesses they fund, business owners, family businesses, family offices and entrepreneurs. Visit ey.com/private

About EY Initial Public Offering Services

Going public is a transformative milestone in an organization's journey. As the industry-leading advisor in initial public offering (IPO) services, EY teams advise ambitious organizations around the world and helps equip them for IPO success. EY teams serve as trusted business advisors guiding companies from start to completion, strategically positioning businesses to achieve their goals over short windows of opportunity and preparing companies for their next chapter in the public eye. ey.com/ipo

About the data

The data presented here is available on ey.com/ipo/trends. Year to date 2022 (i.e., January-September) is based on completed IPOs from 1 January 2022 to 21 September and expected IPOs by the end of September 2022. Data as of close of business 21 September UK time. All data contained in this document is sourced from Dealogic, CB Insights, Crunchbase, SPAC Insider and EY analysis unless otherwise noted.  SPAC IPOs are excluded in all data included in this report, except where indicated. 

CONTACT: Lauren Mosery
EY Global Media Relations
+1 732 977 2063
lauren.mosery@ey.com

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SOURCE EY

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Economics

Why WWE could be a good stock to buy/hold in October

World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (NYSE:WWE) remains in defensive mode as the stock market crumbles. A year-to-date return of 37.40% makes the stock one…

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World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (NYSE:WWE) remains in defensive mode as the stock market crumbles. A year-to-date return of 37.40% makes the stock one to hold for value preservation. This article finds WWE a good stock to trade when keenness and proper risk management are exercised.

WWE, as it is popularly known, is an integrated media and entertainment entity. It’s known for wrestling promotion, but related fields of film and American football widen its scope. 

Just like other entertainment companies, WWE was grounded by the Covid-19 disruption. As recovery began, the stock has never looked back. It has acted as a true momentum stock while maintaining an uptrend since the beginning of the year. There are clear fundamentals too.

In its second quarter, the company’s net revenue rose 24% to $328.2 million or £309.6 million. The revenue was above $322.4 million or £304.15 estimates. The earnings per share increased from $0.42 to $0.59. The company projects “strong revenue growth” in the third quarter. The raised guidance reflects rising content monetization, local media rights fees, and international ticket sales increases. 

WWE touches the bottom of the ascending channel

Source – TradingView

On the daily chart, momentum is weak on WWE as it corrected to $67. However, we can see that WWE is still maintaining the upside channel. 

Should you buy WWE

WWE has maintained momentum and recovers each time it hits the bottom of the ascending channel. The stock is a buy at the current level, preferably after recovering above the 50-day MA. Short-term traders can exit at the top of the ascending channel.

The post Why WWE could be a good stock to buy/hold in October appeared first on Invezz.

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