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First Reliance Bancshares Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

First Reliance Bancshares Reports First Quarter 2022 Results
PR Newswire
FLORENCE, S.C., April 27, 2022

FLORENCE, S.C., April 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — First Reliance Bancshares, Inc. (OTC:FSRL), the holding company for First Reliance Bank (collecti…

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First Reliance Bancshares Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

PR Newswire

FLORENCE, S.C., April 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- First Reliance Bancshares, Inc. (OTC:FSRL), the holding company for First Reliance Bank (collectively, "First Reliance" or the "Company"), today announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2022.

First Quarter 2022 Highlights

  • Net income for the first quarter of 2022 was $0.9 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to $1.7 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2021.
  • Total loans increased $5.6 million, or 3.8% annualized, to $592.1 million at March 31, 2022 from $586.4 million at December 31, 2021.
  • Total investment securities available for sale increased $62.5 million, or 305.2% annualized, to $144.4 million at March 31, 2022 from $81.9 million at December 31, 2021.
  • Total deposits increased $56.8 million, or 29.1% annualized, to $837.7 million at March 31, 2022 from $780.8 million at December 31, 2021.
  • Transaction deposits(1) increased $49.6 million during the quarter to $441.5 million and represent 52.7% of total deposits at March 31, 2022.
  • Net interest income for the quarter was $6.6 million, which represents an increase of $1.0 million, or 17.4%, compared to the same period in 2021.
  • Asset quality remained strong, with nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets remaining nominal at 0.11% at March 31, 2022. Remaining other real estate owned (one property) was sold during the quarter to bring the balance to zero.
  • The Company had net recoveries of $81 thousand, or annualized (0.06%) of average loans during the quarter compared to net charge-offs of $5 thousand, or annualized 0.00% of average loans, for the same period in 2021.
  • Cost of funds for the first quarter of 2022 decreased to 0.22% from 0.23% on a linked quarter basis and from 0.34% for the same period in 2021.

Rick Saunders, Chief Executive Officer, remarked: "The first quarter has brought significant changes to the economic environment, highlighted by mounting inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.  In the face of these challenges, First Reliance continues to focus on growing our exceptional deposit franchise and originating loans that meet our high underwriting standards.  While loan growth slowed in the first quarter, our pipelines remain strong as we move into Q2."

Mr. Saunders continued, "Our top priorities for the coming quarters are disciplined growth, net interest margin expansion, and improved operating leverage.  While the increase in interest rates has normalized mortgage revenues, we believe our core banking business is well-positioned to take advantage of this new rate environment."

 

Financial Summary


Three Months Ended


Mar 31   

Dec 31   

Sept 30   

June 30   

Mar 31   

($ in thousands, except per share data)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Earnings:






Net income available to common shareholders

$          852

$          932

$     1,288

$     1,348

$     1,708

Earnings per common share, diluted

0.11

0.12

0.16

0.17

0.21

Total revenue(2)

9,097

9,253

9,570

10,169

9,917

Net interest margin

3.12%

3.10%

3.12%

3.40%

3.36%

Return on average assets(3)

0.37%

0.41%

0.60%

0.67%

0.93%

Return on average equity(3)

4.85%

5.28%

7.29%

7.83%

9.91%

Efficiency ratio(4)

87.50%

88.45%

83.83%

81.82%

77.35%


Footnotes to table located at the end of this release.







As of


Mar 31   

Dec 31   

Sept 30   

June 30   

Mar 31   

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Balance Sheet:






Total assets

$       953,784

$       910,797

$       911,057

$       832,241

$       777,735

Total loans receivable

592,089

586,446

564,738

526,362

490,326

Total deposits

837,663

780,833

787,501

711,505

661,217

Total transaction deposits(1) to total deposits

52.71%

50.19%

48.25%

48.92%

49.78%

Loans to deposits

70.68%

75.11%

71.71%

73.98%

74.16%

Bank Capital Ratios:






Total risk-based capital ratio

13.67%

14.07%

15.80%

14.89%

16.00%

Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio

12.65%

13.03%

14.64%

13.84%

14.87%

Tier 1 leverage ratio

9.67%

9.66%

10.24%

10.43%

11.13%

Common equity tier 1 capital ratio

12.65%

13.03%

14.64%

13.84%

14.87%

Asset Quality Ratios:






Nonperforming assets as a percentage of
   total assets

0.11%

0.10%

0.15%

0.17%

0.17%

Allowance for loan losses as a percentage of
   total loans receivable

1.22%

1.20%

1.23%

1.20%

1.26%


Footnotes to table located at the end of this release.

  

 

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS – Unaudited


Three Months Ended


Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

($ in thousands, except per share data)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Interest income






Loans

$        6,380

$        6,663

$        6,382

$        6,391

$        5,851

Investment securities

571

359

294

311

238

Other interest income

73

79

58

38

60

Total interest income

7,024

7,101

6,734

6,740

6,149

Interest expense






Deposits

197

224

257

255

286

Other interest expense

252

256

213

265

262

Total interest expense

449

480

470

520

548

Net interest income

6,575

6,621

6,264

6,220

5,601

Provision for loan losses

85

95

100

108

-

Net interest income after provision for loan
   losses

6,490

6,526

6,164

6,112

5,601

Noninterest income






Mortgage banking income

1,420

1,407

2,151

2,582

3,390

Service fees on deposit accounts

362

356

315

272

279

Debit card and other service charges,
   commissions, and fees

498

543

532

509

454

Income from bank owned life insurance

88

93

94

94

93

Gain on sale of securities, net

-

-

42

39

-

Gain on sale of loans

-

-

-

326

-

Gain on disposal of fixed assets

10

69

-

-

-

Other income

144

164

172

127

100

Total noninterest income

2,522

2,632

3,306

3,949

4,316

Noninterest expense






Compensation and benefits

5,079

4,965

5,268

5,518

4,992

Occupancy and equipment

893

862

784

779

796

Data processing, technology, and communications

837

920

852

916

866

Professional fees

180

202

234

242

238

Marketing

74

150

113

88

69

Other

897

1,085

772

777

710

Total noninterest expense

7,960

8,184

8,023

8,320

7,671

Income before provision for income taxes

1,052

974

1,447

1,741

2,246

Income tax expense

200

42

159

393

538

Net income available to common shareholders

$             852

$             932

$        1,288

$        1,348

$        1,708







Weighted average common shares - basic

7,784

7,785

7,750

7,681

7,780

Weighted average common shares - diluted

8,100

8,096

8,084

8,164

8,168

Basic income per common share

$           0.11

$           0.12

$           0.17

$           0.18

$           0.22

Diluted income per common share

$           0.11

$           0.12

$           0.16

$           0.17

$           0.21

Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2022 was $0.9 million, or $0.11 per diluted common share, compared to $1.7 million, or $0.21 per diluted common share, for the three months ended March 31, 2021.

Noninterest income for the three months ended March 31, 2022 was $2.5 million, a decrease of $1.8 million from $4.3 million for the same period in 2021.  Noninterest income is largely driven by the Company's mortgage banking division, which produced net revenue of $1.4 million on $72 million of mortgage sale volume during the three months ended March 31, 2022.  Mortgage banking income decreased period-over-period primarily because of a decrease in sale volume.  Service charges on deposit accounts as well as debit card and other fees were a combined $0.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022, an increase of $0.1 million from the same period in 2021. 

Noninterest expense for the three months ended March 31, 2022 was $8.0 million, an increase of $0.3 million from $7.7 million for the same period in 2021.  This increase was driven mainly by an increase of $0.2 million in other noninterest expense. Compensation and benefits expense increased slightly to $5.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022 from $5.0 million for the same period in 2021.  Included in compensation and benefits for the current quarter is approximately $55 thousand in severance expense. 

NET INTEREST INCOME AND MARGIN – Unaudited


For the Three Months Ended


March 31, 2022


March 31, 2021


Average

Income/

Yield/


Average

Income/

Yield/

(dollars in thousands)

Balance

Expense

Rate


Balance

Expense

Rate

Assets








Interest-earning assets








Federal funds sold and interest-bearing deposits

$   139,225

$                 66

0.19%


$    104,580

$              30

0.12%

Investment securities

107,863

571

2.15%


39,203

238

2.43%

Nonmarketable equity securities

614

7

4.80%


1,055

30

11.31%

Loans held for sale

19,922

164

3.33%


38,273

265

2.76%

Loans

587,161

6,216

4.29%


483,472

5,586

4.62%

Total interest-earning assets

854,785

7,024

3.33%


666,583

6,149

3.69%

Allowance for loan losses

(7,103)




(6,318)



Noninterest-earning assets

80,270




73,217



Total assets

$   927,952




$    733,482











Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity








Interest-bearing liabilities








NOW accounts

$   163,581

$                 19

0.05%


$    123,316

$              13

0.04%

Savings & money market

275,051

84

0.12%


174,429

74

0.17%

Time deposits

120,378

94

0.32%


140,921

199

0.56%

Total interest-bearing deposits

559,010

197

0.14%


438,666

286

0.26%

FHLB advances and other borrowings

15,516

24

0.62%


16,118

46

1.13%

Subordinated debentures

25,663

228

3.60%


20,786

216

4.16%

Total interest-bearing liabilities

600,189

449

0.30%


475,570

548

0.46%

Noninterest bearing deposits

245,502




178,456



Other liabilities

12,071




10,543



Shareholders' equity

70,190




68,913



Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$   927,952




$    733,482











Net interest income (tax equivalent) / interest
  rate spread


$         6,575

3.03%



$       5,601

3.23%

Net Interest Margin



3.12%




3.36%

Net interest income for the three months ended March 31, 2022 was $6.6 million compared to $5.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021.  This increase was primarily driven by an increase in interest-earning assets as well as a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, which decreased from 0.46% to 0.30%. Improvements in costs of interest-bearing liabilities were offset by decreases in asset yield.  Yield on interest-earning assets decreased to 3.33% for the three months ended March 31, 2022 from 3.69% for the same period in 2021.

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS – Unaudited


As of


Mar 31  

Dec 31  

Sept 30  

June 30  

Mar 31  

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Assets






Cash and cash equivalents:






Cash and due from banks

$                 4,672

$                 5,299

$                 4,930

$                 5,486

$                 5,547

Interest-bearing deposits with banks

116,192

144,825

184,739

144,937

115,577

Total cash and cash equivalents

120,864

150,124

189,669

150,423

121,124

Time deposits in other banks

257

257

257

256

256

Investment securities:






Investment securities available for sale

144,422

81,917

58,470

56,881

54,413

Other investments

521

837

837

837

837

Total investment securities

144,943

82,754

59,307

57,718

55,250

Mortgage loans held for sale

23,528

23,844

33,667

33,097

48,912

Loans receivable:






Loans

592,089

586,446

564,738

526,362

490,326

Less allowance for loan losses

(7,206)

(7,040)

(6,934)

(6,323)

(6,168)

Loans receivable, net

584,883

579,406

557,804

520,039

484,158

Property and equipment, net

23,222

22,805

22,364

21,818

18,465

Mortgage servicing rights

14,536

14,057

13,785

13,603

13,353

Bank owned life insurance

18,564

18,476

18,383

18,289

18,195

Deferred income taxes

5,862

4,128

2,798

2,820

3,234

Other assets

17,125

14,946

13,023

14,178

14,788

Total assets

953,784

910,797

911,057

832,241

777,735

Liabilities






Deposits

$           837,663

$           780,833

$           787,501

$           711,505

$           661,217

Federal Home Loan Bank advances

-

10,000

10,000

10,000

10,000

Federal funds and repurchase agreements

11,886

11,372

6,353

8,946

6,955

Subordinated debentures

15,357

15,349

15,498

10,496

10,487

Junior subordinated debentures

10,310

10,310

10,310

10,310

10,310

Other liabilities

11,937

12,131

10,983

11,393

10,548

Total liabilities

887,153

839,995

840,645

762,650

709,517

Shareholders' equity






Preferred stock - Series D non-cumulative, no par
  value

1

1

1

1

1

Common Stock - $.01 par value; 20,000,000 shares
  authorized

88

88

88

88

88

Treasury stock, at cost

(4,419)

(4,323)

(4,281)

(3,858)

(3,744)

Nonvested restricted stock

(2,572)

(2,668)

(2,737)

(2,928)

(2,868)

Additional paid-in capital

53,980

53,856

53,765

53,776

53,617

Retained earnings

24,837

23,985

23,053

21,765

20,417

Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)

(5,284)

(137)

523

747

707

Total shareholders' equity

66,631

70,802

70,412

69,591

68,218

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$           953,784

$           910,797

$           911,057

$           832,241

$           777,735

 

COMMON STOCK SUMMARY - Unaudited




As of




Mar 31 

Dec 31 

Sept 30 

June 30 

Mar 31 

(shares in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Voting common shares outstanding

8,782

8,793

8,784

8,788

8,784

Treasury shares outstanding

(545)

(535)

(530)

(489)

(481)

  Total common shares outstanding

8,237

8,258

8,254

8,299

8,303







Tangible book value per common share(5)

$                     7.98

$                     8.46

$                     8.41

$                     8.27

$                     8.09







Stock price:






  High

$                  10.20

$                  10.74

$                  10.50

$                  10.05

$                  10.00

  Low

$                     9.75

$                     9.95

$                     9.80

$                     9.65

$                     7.46

  Period end

$                     9.85

$                  10.20

$                  10.30

$                     9.90

$                     9.90


Footnotes to table located at the end of this release.

 

ASSET QUALITY MEASURES – Unaudited


As of


Mar 31   

Dec 31   

Sept 30   

June 30   

Mar 31   

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Nonperforming Assets






Commercial






Owner occupied RE

$                     144

$                     152

$                     526

$                       535

$                        385

Non-owner occupied RE

295

-

-

-

-

Construction

-

-

-

-

-

Commercial business

-

-

-

-

-

Consumer






Real estate

343

341

346

383

344

Home equity

-

-

-

-

-

Construction

-

-

-

-

-

Other

104

84

121

129

164

Nonaccruing troubled debt restructurings

190

205

220

235

252

Total nonaccrual loans

$                1,076

$                     782

$                1,213

$                  1,282

$                   1,145

Other real estate owned

-

135

150

150

150

Total nonperforming assets

$                1,076

$                     917

$                1,363

$                  1,432

$                   1,295

Nonperforming assets as a percentage of:






Total assets

0.11%

0.10%

0.15%

0.17%

0.17%

Total loans receivable

0.18%

0.16%

0.24%

0.27%

0.26%

Accruing troubled debt restructurings

$                1,393

$                1,405

$                1,444

$                  1,478

$                   1,544








Three Months Ended


Mar 31   

Dec 31   

Sept 30   

June 30   

Mar 31   

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Allowance for Loan Losses






Balance, beginning of period

$                7,040

$                6,934

$                6,323

$                  6,168

$                   6,173

Loans charged-off

19

5

72

59

55

Recoveries of loans previously charged-off

100

16

583

106

50

Net charge-offs (recoveries)

(81)

(11)

(511)

(47)

5

Provision for loan losses

85

95

100

108

-

Balance, end of period

$                7,206

$                7,040

$                6,934

$                  6,323

$                   6,168

Allowance for loan losses to gross loans receivable

1.22%

1.20%

1.23%

1.20%

1.26%

Allowance for loan losses to nonaccrual loans

669.70%

900.26%

571.64%

493.21%

538.69%

 

Our asset quality remained strong through March 31, 2022, with nonperforming assets remaining nominal at $1.1 million, which represents 0.11% of total assets.  The Company sold the remaining other real estate owned during the quarter to bring that balance to zero.  The allowance for loan losses as a percentage of total loans receivable increased slightly to 1.22% at March 31, 2022, compared to 1.20% at December 31, 2021.  The Company had net recoveries of $81 thousand for the three months ended March 31, 2022 compared to net charge-offs of $5 thousand for the same period in 2021.

LOAN COMPOSITION – Unaudited


As of


Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Commercial real estate

$             334,508

$             333,060

$             318,849

$             290,198

$             253,300

Consumer real estate

123,908

120,079

107,651

97,969

91,504

Commercial and industrial

66,285

60,687

61,778

63,545

60,432

PPP

-

-

-

-

16,784

Consumer and other

67,388

72,620

76,460

74,650

68,306

Total loans, net of deferred fees

592,089

586,446

564,738

526,362

490,326

Less allowance for loan losses

7,206

7,040

6,934

6,323

6,168

Total loans, net

$             584,883

$             579,406

$             557,804

$             520,039

$             484,158

 

DEPOSIT COMPOSITION – Unaudited


As of


Mar 31

Dec 31

Sept 30

June 30

Mar 31

(dollars in thousands)

2022

2021

2021

2021

2021

Noninterest-bearing

$        273,118

$        238,019

$        246,534

$        215,814

$        197,831

Interest-bearing:






DDA and NOW accounts

168,401

153,889

133,474

132,269

131,304

Money market accounts

217,812

204,432

216,243

169,707

137,913

Savings

61,246

58,566

59,941

57,880

52,085

Time, less than $250,000

84,874

99,059

103,126

106,219

109,295

Time, $250,000 and over

32,212

26,868

28,183

29,616

32,789

Total deposits

$        837,663

$        780,833

$        787,501

$        711,505

$        661,217

 

Footnotes to tables:

(1)

Includes noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing DDA and NOW accounts.

(2)

Total revenue is the sum of net interest income and noninterest income.

(3)

Annualized for the respective period.

(4)

Noninterest expense divided by the sum of net interest income and noninterest income.

(5)

The tangible book value per share is calculated as total shareholders' equity less intangible assets, divided by period-end outstanding common shares. 

ABOUT FIRST RELIANCE

Founded in 1999, First Reliance Bancshares, Inc. (OTC: FSRL.OB), is based in Florence, South Carolina and has assets of approximately $954 million. The company employs more than 180 professionals and has locations throughout South Carolina and central North Carolina. First Reliance has redefined community banking with a commitment to making customers' lives better, its founding principle. Customers of the company have given it a 93% customer satisfaction rating well above the bank industry average of 81%. First Reliance is also one of two companies throughout South Carolina to receive the Best Places to Work in South Carolina award all 16 years since the program began. We believe that this recognition confirms that our associates are engaged and committed to our brand and the communities we serve. In addition to offering a full range of personalized community banking products and services for individuals, small businesses and corporations, First Reliance offers two unique community-customers programs, which include: Hometown Heroes, a package of benefits for those serving our communities and Check N Save, an outreach program for the unbanked or under-banked. The company also offers a full suite of digital banking services, Treasury Services, a Customer Service Guaranty, a Mortgage Service Guaranty, and First Reliance Wealth Strategies.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

Certain statements in this news release contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements relating to future plans and expectations, and are thus prospective.  Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to our plans, objectives, expectations and intentions and other statements that are not historical facts, and other statements identified by words such as "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "estimates," "intends," "plans," "targets," and "projects," as well as similar expressions.  Such statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.  Although we believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove to be inaccurate.  Therefore, we can give no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized.  The inclusion of this forward-looking information should not be construed as a representation by the Company or any person that the future events, plans, or expectations contemplated by the Company will be achieved.

The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements:  (1) competitive pressures among depository and other financial institutions may increase significantly and have an effect on pricing, spending, third-party relationships and revenues; (2) the strength of the United States economy in general and the strength of the local economies in which we conduct operations may be different than expected resulting in, among other things, a deterioration in the credit quality or a reduced demand for credit, including the resultant effect on the Company's loan portfolio and allowance for loan losses; (3) the rate of delinquencies and amounts of charge-offs, the level of allowance for loan loss, the rates of loan growth, or adverse changes in asset quality in our loan portfolio, which may result in increased credit risk-related losses and expenses; (4) the risk that the preliminary financial information reported herein and our current preliminary analysis will be different when our review is finalized; (5) changes in the U.S. legal and regulatory framework including, but not limited to, the Dodd-Frank Act and regulations adopted thereunder; (6) adverse conditions in the stock market, the public debt market and other capital markets (including changes in interest rate conditions) could have a negative impact on the Company, including the value of its MSR asset; (7) the business related to acquisitions may not be integrated successfully or such integration may take longer to accomplish than expected; (8) the expected cost savings and any revenue synergies from acquisitions may not be fully realized within expected timeframes; and (9) disruption from acquisitions may make it more difficult to maintain relationships with clients, associates or suppliers.  Moreover, a trade war or other governmental action related to tariffs or international trade agreements or policies, as well as Covid-19 or other potential epidemics or pandemics, have the potential to negatively impact ours and/or our customers' costs, demand for our customers' products, and/or the U.S. economy or certain sectors thereof and, thus, adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.  All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements concerning the Company or any person acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements above.  We do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made.

Contact:
Robert Haile
SEVP & Chief Financial Officer
(843) 656-5000
rhaile@firstreliance.com

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SOURCE First Reliance Bancshares

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Government

Mathematicians use AI to identify emerging COVID-19 variants

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants…

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Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

Credit: source: https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23312

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

The framework combines dimension reduction techniques and a new explainable clustering algorithm called CLASSIX, developed by mathematicians at The University of Manchester. This enables the quick identification of groups of viral genomes that might present a risk in the future from huge volumes of data.

The study, presented this week in the journal PNAS, could support traditional methods of tracking viral evolution, such as phylogenetic analysis, which currently require extensive manual curation.

Roberto Cahuantzi, a researcher at The University of Manchester and first and corresponding author of the paper, said: “Since the emergence of COVID-19, we have seen multiple waves of new variants, heightened transmissibility, evasion of immune responses, and increased severity of illness.

“Scientists are now intensifying efforts to pinpoint these worrying new variants, such as alpha, delta and omicron, at the earliest stages of their emergence. If we can find a way to do this quickly and efficiently, it will enable us to be more proactive in our response, such as tailored vaccine development and may even enable us to eliminate the variants before they become established.”

Like many other RNA viruses, COVID-19 has a high mutation rate and short time between generations meaning it evolves extremely rapidly. This means identifying new strains that are likely to be problematic in the future requires considerable effort.

Currently, there are almost 16 million sequences available on the GISAID database (the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data), which provides access to genomic data of influenza viruses.

Mapping the evolution and history of all COVID-19 genomes from this data is currently done using extremely large amounts of computer and human time.

The described method allows automation of such tasks. The researchers processed 5.7 million high-coverage sequences in only one to two days on a standard modern laptop; this would not be possible for existing methods, putting identification of concerning pathogen strains in the hands of more researchers due to reduced resource needs.

Thomas House, Professor of Mathematical Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “The unprecedented amount of genetic data generated during the pandemic demands improvements to our methods to analyse it thoroughly. The data is continuing to grow rapidly but without showing a benefit to curating this data, there is a risk that it will be removed or deleted.

“We know that human expert time is limited, so our approach should not replace the work of humans all together but work alongside them to enable the job to be done much quicker and free our experts for other vital developments.”

The proposed method works by breaking down genetic sequences of the COVID-19 virus into smaller “words” (called 3-mers) represented as numbers by counting them. Then, it groups similar sequences together based on their word patterns using machine learning techniques.

Stefan Güttel, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Manchester, said: “The clustering algorithm CLASSIX we developed is much less computationally demanding than traditional methods and is fully explainable, meaning that it provides textual and visual explanations of the computed clusters.”

Roberto Cahuantzi added: “Our analysis serves as a proof of concept, demonstrating the potential use of machine learning methods as an alert tool for the early discovery of emerging major variants without relying on the need to generate phylogenies.

“Whilst phylogenetics remains the ‘gold standard’ for understanding the viral ancestry, these machine learning methods can accommodate several orders of magnitude more sequences than the current phylogenetic methods and at a low computational cost.”


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International

There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

More Travel:

According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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