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First National Financial Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter, 2021 Annual Results

First National Financial Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter, 2021 Annual Results
Canada NewsWire
TORONTO, March 1, 2022

TORONTO, March 1, 2022 /CNW/ – First National Financial Corporation (TSX: FN) (TSX: FN.PR.A) (TSX: FN.PR.B) (the “Company” or “F…

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First National Financial Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter, 2021 Annual Results

Canada NewsWire

TORONTO, March 1, 2022 /CNW/ - First National Financial Corporation (TSX: FN) (TSX: FN.PR.A) (TSX: FN.PR.B) (the "Company" or "FNFC") today announced its financial results for the three and 12 months ended December 31, 2021. The Company derives virtually all of its earnings from its wholly owned subsidiary, First National Financial LP ("FNFLP" or "First National").

2021 Annual Summary

  • Mortgages under administration ("MUA") increased 4% to a record $123.9 billion compared to $118.7 billion at December 31, 2020
  • Revenue increased 1% to $1.39 billion from $1.38 billion in 2020
  • Pre-FMV Income(1) was $257.3 million compared to $323.0 million in 2020 due to the mortgage spread environment and shifts in product mix and funding strategy
  • Net income was $194.6 million ($3.20 per common share) compared to $190.2 million ($3.12 per common share) in 2020

Q4 Summary

  • MUA increased 5% on an annualized basis in Q4
  • Revenue decreased 12% to $339.3 million from $387.3 million in Q4 2020
  • Pre-FMV Income(1) was $57.0 million compared to $94.9 million in Q4 2020 due to the mortgage spread environment and shifts in product mix and funding strategy
  • Net income was $41.9 million ($0.69 per common share) compared to $69.1 million ($1.13 per common share) in Q4 2020

Management Commentary

"First National recorded another year of strong mortgage origination growth as our teams responded well to the needs of single family residential and commercial borrowers across Canada," said Stephen Smith, Executive Chairman. "Growth of 17% in total originations combined with success in mortgage renewals drove MUA to its highest level ever. In turn, profitability was solid even as mortgage spreads returned to pre-pandemic levels, and in the last half of 2021, were as narrow as they were before the 2008 financial crisis. In this environment, First National's efficient business model and diverse funding strategies once again proved their worth for shareholders."

The Company's after-tax Pre-Fair Market Value return on shareholders' equity in 2021 was 39%. During 2021, First National declared $210.9 million in common share dividends or $3.52 per share. This includes a special common share dividend of $1.25 per share paid in December 2021. This compares favourably to $148.4 million or $2.47 per share in 2020 inclusive of a $0.50 per share special dividend paid in December 2020. Since its IPO in 2006, First National has paid a cumulative total of $1.6 billion in total dividends and distributions or $29.32 per share. Combined with share price appreciation, the total cumulative return to IPO investors was 609% at December 31, 2021.

"Both segments of the business performed well in a more competitive environment," said Jason Ellis, Chief Executive Officer.  "Entering 2021, we expected single-family originations to be flat to 2020 – itself a record year. Instead, originations grew 22% to $23.4 billion, a new record. Despite a slow start to 2021, commercial volumes also eclipsed the prior-year record, growing 7% to $9.7 billion. While mortgage demand was created by the market, it was the 1,560 people of First National who converted opportunity into results. I thank them for their dedication and mortgage brokers for their business. While mortgage spreads represented a headwind for profitability in 2021, we will benefit from the growth in MUA, the growth in our securitized mortgage portfolio and increased renewal opportunities in future periods."


Quarter ended

Year ended


December 31,
2021

December 31,
2020

December 31,
2021

December 31,
2020

  Revenue

339,292

387,303

1,394,606

1,380,294

  Income before income taxes

57,111

94,273

263,821

258,729

  Pre-FMV Income (1)

57,045

94,937

257,276

323,008

At Period End


  Total assets

42,274,158

39,488,527

42,274,158

39,488,527

  Mortgages under administration

123,907,627

118,723,990

123,907,627

118,723,990

Note:

(1)

This non-IFRS measure adjusts income before income taxes by eliminating the impact of changes in fair value by adding back losses on the valuation of financial instruments (except those on mortgage investments) and deducting gains on the valuation of financial instruments (except those on mortgage investments).

Financial Review

For all of 2021, single-family mortgage originations were $23.4 billion, $4.2 billion or 22% above 2020, while renewals were $6.3 billion or 5% lower than the prior year on available renewal opportunities. Management believes some borrowers chose to refinance rather than renew to take advantage of low mortgage rates, which reduced renewal opportunities. Fourth quarter single-family mortgage originations of $5.2 billion were 12% lower than a year ago. Management had anticipated up to a 25% year-over-year decrease in Q4 originations in anticipation of lower market activity compared to exceptional market strength (and record originations) in the fourth quarter of 2020. Single family mortgage renewals of $1.5 billion in Q4 were 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting lower available renewal opportunities.

For all of 2021, commercial mortgage originations were $9.7 billion, up 7% or $635 million from 2020, while renewals were $2.7 billion, up 42% from $1.9 billion in 2020. Fourth quarter commercial segment originations of $3.0 billion were 12% higher than a year ago as demand for conventional lending picked up to augment insured mortgage volumes. Fourth quarter commercial segment mortgage renewals of $902 million were 62% higher than a year ago.  

Securitization remained a large part of the Company's strategy. For all of 2021, the Company originated and renewed for securitization purposes approximately $8.9 billion of single-family mortgages and $4.0 billion of multi-unit residential mortgages. In the fourth quarter, the Company originated and renewed for securitization purposes approximately $2.0 billion of single-family mortgages and $1.5 billion of multi-unit residential mortgages.

2021 revenue was 1% higher at $1.39 billion from $1.38 billion in 2020 due to changes in the fair market value of financial instruments which produced large losses in 2020 which reduced revenue.  Fourth quarter revenue decreased 12% or $48 million to $339.3 million from $387.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 largely due to the shift of commercial segment product from institutional placement to securitization which creates revenue in future periods. The underlying drivers of revenue performance in both periods are described below.

  • 2021 placement fees decreased 9% to $303.7 million from $333.7 million in 2020 – despite an 11% increase in origination volumes sold to institutional investors – as mortgage spreads returned to pre-pandemic levels. Accordingly, mortgage volumes sold on a funded basis attracted lower per-unit placement fees. For the residential segment, average per-unit fees were approximately 13% lower year over year. In the commercial segment, revenues were lower by $40.1 million year over year due to a shift in funding strategy from placement to securitization of 10-year insured mortgages. In 2021, the Company securitized $2.7 billion and placed about $2.6 billion of its five- and ten-year insured commercial segment origination. In 2020, the Company securitized $1.3 billion and placed about $4.6 billion of its five- and ten-year insured origination. The shift of more than $1.0 billion was a reflection of CMHC programs that increased CMB access for issuers who lend on affordability-linked real estate. This subject of this program is 10-year insured mortgages, such that the Company elected to securitize a larger percentage of its insured 10-year commercial mortgage origination leaving less product available to place with institutional investors.  By shifting these mortgages to its own securitization, the Company sacrificed placement fees for future net securitization margin. Q4 placement fees decreased 32% to $68.1 million from $100.4 million in Q4 2020 reflecting the same reasons described for annual performance.
  • 2021 mortgage servicing income increased 21% to $211.6 million from $175.0 million due to growing administration revenue from growth in MUA and growth in the Company's third-party underwriting business. Q4 mortgage servicing income increased 7% as volumes in third-party underwriting grew at a slower pace than in Q4 2020 when the low interest rate environment created historically high growth in this business.
  • 2021 mortgage investment income decreased 7% to $63.9 million from $69.0 million in 2020 primarily due to the change in the interest-rate environment between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. After the 2020 first quarter, the Company decreased its offered mortgage rates. The result was lower amounts of interest earned on mortgages while they accumulated for securitization on the balance sheet. Q4 mortgage investment income was up 14% from Q4 2020 as the Company held more mortgages on its balance sheet prior to securitization and earned more interest revenue.
  • 2021 gains on deferred placement fee revenue decreased 50% to $16.1 million from $32.4 million in 2020 as the Company elected to directly securitize more of its multi-unit mortgage origination rather than sell originated mortgages to institutional investors. Spreads also narrowed on these mortgages in 2021 compared to 2020. Q4 gains on deferred placement fee revenue for similar reasons.

2021 Pre-FMV Income(1) decreased 20% to $257.3 million from $323.0 million in 2020 largely due to a return to a pre-pandemic mortgage spread environment and shifts in the commercial segment's product mix and funding strategy to allocate more origination volume to securitization rather than institutional placement. Q4 Pre-FMV Income(1) decreased 40% to $57.0 million from $94.9 million in Q4 2020 reflecting the same performance drivers present for much of the full year.

Outstanding Securities
At December 31, 2021, and March 1, 2022, the Corporation had: 59,967,429 common shares; 2,984,835 Class A preference shares, Series 1; 1,015,165 Class A preference shares, Series 2; 200,000 November 2024 senior unsecured notes; and 200,000 November 2025 senior unsecured notes outstanding.

Dividends
The Board declared common share dividends of $210.9 million or $3.52 per share in 2021 compared to $148.4 million or $2.47 per share in 2020. This growth reflected an increase in the regular monthly dividend paid in June 2021 that brought the current annualized common share dividend rate to $2.35 per share and a special dividend of $1.25 per share in December 2021 (compared to a special dividend of $0.50 in December 2020). The payment of special dividends in both years reflected the Board's determination that the Company has generated excess capital in during each period and that the capital needed for near-term growth could be generated from current operations.

For 2021, the common share payout ratio was 110% compared to 79%. Excluding special dividends in both years, as well as recorded gains and losses on account of changes in fair value of financial instruments, the dividend payout ratio for 2021 was 73% compared to 50% in 2020. Management does not consider such gains and losses to affect its dividend payment policy in the short term.

The Company also paid $2.7 million of dividends on its preferred shares in 2021 ($2.8 million in 2020).

Outlook
2021 saw a return to a fully competitive marketplace and mortgage spreads tightened to pre-pandemic levels. In some periods, spreads tightened to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. The Company successfully grew MUA despite the competitive environment and built a larger portfolio of mortgages pledged under securitization. First National will benefit from this growth in the future: earning income from mortgage administration, net securitization margin and increased renewal opportunities. In the short term, the expectation for the start of 2022 is lower origination. There are indications of slowing origination as housing inventories fall and as mortgage rates rise driven by an expected change in the Bank of Canada's monetary policy in 2022. Generally, higher interest rates will decrease affordability and dampen activity. Management estimates that residential origination will be lower than the $4.4 billion recorded in 2021's first quarter. Management recognizes that home purchasing in the past two years has been at levels that are likely unsustainable and that while drivers such as higher immigration are strong, a market slowdown seems inevitable. However, it is confident that First National will remain competitive and a leader in the marketplace. Management anticipates commercial origination to remain strong in 2022 based on the current pipeline.      

During the pandemic, the value of First National's business model has been demonstrated. By designing systems that do not rely on face-to-face interactions, the Company's business practices resonated with mortgage brokers and borrowers alike during this period. The economic effects of COVID-19 are expected to slowly diminish although the duration and impact of the pandemic is unknown at this time, as is the long-term efficacy of government and central bank interventions. It is still not possible to reliably estimate the length and severity of these developments and the impact on the financial results and condition of the Company and its operating subsidiaries in future periods.

First National is well prepared to execute its business plan. In 2022, the Company expects to enjoy the value of its goodwill with broker partners earned over the last 30+ years and reinforced during the pandemic. Demand for the Company's mortgages from institutional investors is strong due to the substantial amount of liquidity in the financial system. Securitization markets are robust and provide consistent and reliable source of funding.

The Company is confident that its strong relationships with mortgage brokers and diverse funding sources will continue to set First National apart from its competition. The Company will continue to generate income and cash flow from its $33 billion portfolio of mortgages pledged under securitization and $88 billion servicing portfolio and focus on the value inherent in its significant single-family renewal book.

Effective January 12, 2022, the Company announced the appointments of Stephen Smith as Executive Chairman of the Board and Jason Ellis as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director. Mr. Smith co-founded First National in 1988 with Moray Tawse. Since taking First National public in 2006, Mr. Smith served as the Company's founding Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and now will continue to provide strategic guidance to the management team in the newly created role of Executive Chairman. Mr. Ellis joined First National in 2004 with responsibility for First National's treasury and capital markets activities, was appointed Chief Operating Officer in 2018 and added the title of President in 2019.  Mr. Ellis will be responsible for day-to-day operations and the design and maintenance of strategy in the pursuit of business excellence. Although just recently appointed as CEO, Mr. Ellis has played increasingly important strategic roles within the business for over 15 years and is dedicated to leading the organization through the next stage of growth. 

Conference Call and Webcast

March 2, 2022 10:00 am ET   

(416) 764-8609 or (888) 390-0605

www.firstnational.ca

A taped rebroadcast of the conference call will be available until March 9, 2022 at midnight ET. To access the rebroadcast, please dial (416) 764-8677 or (888) 390-0541 and enter passcode 160711 followed by the number sign. The webcast is also archived at www.firstnational.ca for three months.

Complete consolidated financial statements for the Company as well as management's discussion and analysis are available at www.sedar.com and at www.firstnational.ca.

About First National Financial Corporation

First National Financial Corporation (TSX:FN, TSX:FN.PR.A, TSX:FN.PR.B) is the parent company of First National Financial LP, a Canadian-based originator, underwriter and servicer of predominantly prime residential (single-family and multi-unit) and commercial mortgages. With almost $124 billion in mortgages under administration, First National is one of Canada's largest non-bank originators and underwriters of mortgages and is among the top three in market share in the mortgage broker distribution channel.  For more information, please visit www.firstnational.ca.

1 Non-GAAP Measures
The Company uses IFRS as its accounting framework. IFRS are generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for Canadian publicly accountable enterprises for years beginning on or after January 1, 2011. The Company also refers to certain measures to assist in assessing financial performance. These "non-GAAP measures" such as "Pre-FMV Income" and "After tax Pre-FMV Dividend Payout Ratio" should not be construed as alternatives to net income or loss or other comparable measures determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of performance or as a measure of liquidity and cash flow. Non-GAAP measures do not have standard meanings prescribed by GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers.

Forward-Looking Information
Certain information included in this news release may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. In some cases, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of terms such as "may", "will, "should", "expect", "plan", "anticipate", "believe", "intend", "estimate", "predict", "potential", "continue" or other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking information may relate to management's future outlook and anticipated events or results, and may include statements or information regarding the future financial position, business strategy and strategic goals, product development activities, projected costs and capital expenditures, financial results, risk management strategies, hedging activities, geographic expansion, licensing plans, taxes and other plans and objectives of or involving the Company. Particularly, information regarding growth objectives, any future increase in mortgages under administration, future use of securitization vehicles, industry trends and future revenues is forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is based on certain factors and assumptions regarding, among other things, interest rate changes and responses to such changes, the demand for institutionally placed and securitized mortgages, the status of the applicable regulatory regime and the use of mortgage brokers for single family residential mortgages. This forward-looking information should not be read as providing guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be an accurate indication of whether or not, or the times by which, those results will be achieved. While management considers these assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking information is subject to certain factors, including risks and uncertainties listed under ''Risk and Uncertainties Affecting the Business'' in the MD&A, that could cause actual results to differ materially from what management currently expects. These factors include reliance on sources of funding, concentration of institutional investors, reliance on relationships with independent mortgage brokers and changes in the interest rate environment. This forward-looking information is as of the date of this release, and is subject to change after such date. However, management and First National disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities regulations.

SOURCE First National Financial Corporation

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Apartment permits are back to recession lows. Will mortgage rates follow?

If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long.

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In Tuesday’s report, the 5-unit housing permits data hit the same levels we saw in the COVID-19 recession. Once the backlog of apartments is finished, those jobs will be at risk, which traditionally means mortgage rates would fall soon after, as they have in previous economic cycles.

However, this is happening while single-family permits are still rising as the rate of builder buy-downs and the backlog of single-family homes push single-family permits and starts higher. It is a tale of two markets — something I brought up on CNBC earlier this year to explain why this trend matters with housing starts data because the two marketplaces are heading in opposite directions.

The question is: Will the uptick in single-family permits keep mortgage rates higher than usual? As long as jobless claims stay low, the falling 5-unit apartment permit data might not lead to lower mortgage rates as it has in previous cycles.

From Census: Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000.

When people say housing leads us in and out of a recession, it is a valid premise and that is why people carefully track housing permits. However, this housing cycle has been unique. Unfortunately, many people who have tracked this housing cycle are still stuck on 2008, believing that what happened during COVID-19 was rampant demand speculation that would lead to a massive supply of homes once home sales crashed. This would mean the builders couldn’t sell more new homes or have housing permits rise.

Housing permits, starts and new home sales were falling for a while, and in 2022, the data looked recessionary. However, new home sales were never near the 2005 peak, and the builders found a workable bottom in sales by paying down mortgage rates to boost demand. The first level of job loss recessionary data has been averted for now. Below is the chart of the building permits.



On the other hand, the apartment boom and bust has already happened. Permits are already back to the levels of the COVID-19 recession and have legs to move lower. Traditionally, when this data line gets this negative, a recession isn’t far off. But, as you can see in the chart below, there’s a big gap between the housing permit data for single-family and five units. Looking at this chart, the recession would only happen after single-family and 5-unit permits fall together, not when we have a gap like we see today.

From Census: Housing completions: Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,729,000.

As we can see in the chart below, we had a solid month of housing completions. This was driven by 5-unit completions, which have been in the works for a while now. Also, this month’s report show a weather impact as progress in building was held up due to bad weather. However, the good news is that more supply of rental units will mean the fight against rent inflation will be positive as more supply is the best way to deal with inflation. In time, that is also good news for mortgage rates.



Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent (±14.2 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000.

Housing starts data beat to the upside, but the real story is that the marketplace has diverged into two different directions. The apartment boom is over and permits are heading below the COVID-19 recession, but as long as the builders can keep rates low enough to sell more new homes, single-family permits and starts can slowly move forward.

If we lose the single-family marketplace, expect the chart below to look like it always does before a recession — meaning residential construction workers lose their jobs. For now, the apartment construction workers are at the most risk once they finish the backlog of apartments under construction.

Overall, the housing starts beat to the upside. Still, the report’s internals show a marketplace with early recessionary data lines, which traditionally mean mortgage rates should go lower soon. If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long and restrictive policy by the Fed created a recession as we have seen in previous economic cycles.

The builders have been paying down rates to keep construction workers employed, but if rates go higher, it will get more and more challenging to do this because not all builders have the capacity to buy down rates. Last year, we saw what 8% mortgage rates did to new home sales; they dropped before rates fell. So, this is something to keep track of, especially with a critical Federal Reserve meeting this week.

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Young People Aren’t Nearly Angry Enough About Government Debt

Young People Aren’t Nearly Angry Enough About Government Debt

Authored by The American Institute for Economic Research,

Young people sometimes…

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Young People Aren't Nearly Angry Enough About Government Debt

Authored by The American Institute for Economic Research,

Young people sometimes seem to wake up in the morning in search of something to be outraged about. We are among the wealthiest and most educated humans in history. But we’re increasingly convinced that we’re worse off than our parents were, that the planet is in crisis, and that it’s probably not worth having kids.

I’ll generalize here about my own cohort (people born after 1981 but before 2010), commonly referred to as Millennials and Gen Z, as that shorthand corresponds to survey and demographic data. Millennials and Gen Z have valid economic complaints, and the conditions of our young adulthood perceptibly weakened traditional bridges to economic independence. We graduated with record amounts of student debt after President Obama nationalized that lending. Housing prices doubled during our household formation years due to zoning impediments and chronic underbuilding. Young Americans say economic issues are important to us, and candidates are courting our votes by promising student debt relief and cheaper housing (which they will never be able to deliver).

Young people, in our idealism and our rational ignorance of the actual appropriations process, typically support more government intervention, more spending programs, and more of every other burden that has landed us in such untenable economic circumstances to begin with. Perhaps not coincidentally, young people who’ve spent the most years in the increasingly partisan bubble of higher education are also the most likely to favor expanded government programs as a “solution” to those complaints.

It’s Your Debt, Boomer 

What most young people don’t yet understand is that we are sacrificing our young adulthood and our financial security to pay for debts run up by Baby Boomers. Part of every Millennial and Gen-Z paycheck is payable to people the same age as the members of Congress currently milking this system and miring us further in debt.

Our government spends more than it can extract from taxpayers. Social Security, which represents 20 percent of government spending, has run an annual deficit for 15 years. Last year Social Security alone overspent by $22.1 billion. To keep sending out checks to retirees, Social Security goes begging to the Treasury Department, and the Treasury borrows from the public by issuing bonds. Bonds allow investors (who are often also taxpayers) to pay for some retirees’ benefits now, and be paid back later. But investors only volunteer to lend Social Security the money it needs to cover its bills because the (younger) taxpayers will eventually repay the debt — with interest.

In other words, both Social Security and Medicare, along with various smaller federal entitlement programs, together comprising almost half of the federal budget, have been operating for a decade on the principle of “give us the money now, and stick the next generation with the check.” We saddle future generations with debt for present-day consumption.

The second largest item in the budget after Social Security is interest on the national debt — largely on Social Security and other entitlements that have already been spent. These mandatory benefits now consume three quarters of the federal budget: even Congress is not answerable for these programs. We never had the chance for our votes to impact that spending (not that older generations were much better represented) and it’s unclear if we ever will.

Young Americans probably don’t think much about the budget deficit (each year’s overspending) or the national debt (many years’ deficits put together, plus interest) much at all. And why should we? For our entire political memory, the federal government, as well as most of our state governments, have been steadily piling “public” debt upon our individual and collective heads. That’s just how it is. We are the frogs trying to make our way in the watery world as the temperature ticks imperceptibly higher. We have been swimming in debt forever, unaware that we’re being economically boiled alive.

Millennials have somewhat modest non-mortgage debt of around $27,000 (some self-reports say twice that much), including car notes, student loans, and credit cards. But we each owe more than $100,000 as a share of the national debt. And we don’t even know it.

When Millennials finally do have babies (and we are!) that infant born in 2024 will enter the world with a newly minted Social Security Number and $78,089 credit card bill for Granddad’s heart surgery and the interest on a benefit check that was mailed when her parents were in middle school. 

Headlines and comments sections love to sneer at “snowflakes” who’ve just hit the “real world,” and can’t figure out how to make ends meet, but the kids are onto something. A full 15 percent of our earnings are confiscated to pay into retirement and healthcare programs that will be insolvent by the time we’re old enough to enjoy them. The Federal Reserve and government debt are eating the economy. The same interest rates that are pushing mortgages out of reach are driving up the cost of interest to maintain the debt going forward. As we learn to save and invest, our dollars are slowly devalued. We’re right to feel trapped.  

Sure, if we’re alive and own a smartphone, we’re among the one percent of the wealthiest humans who’ve ever lived. Older generations could argue (persuasively!) that we have no idea what “poverty” is anymore. But with the state of government spending and debt…we are likely to find out. 

Despite being richer than Rockefeller, Millennials are right to say that the previous ways of building income security have been pushed out of reach. Our earning years are subsidizing not our own economic coming-of-age, but bank bailouts, wars abroad, and retirement and medical benefits for people who navigated a less-challenging wealth-building landscape. 

Redistribution goes both ways. Boomers are expected to pass on tens of trillions in unprecedented wealth to their children (if it isn’t eaten up by medical costs, despite heavy federal subsidies) and older generations’ financial support of the younger has had palpable lifting effects. Half of college costs are paid by families, and the trope of young people moving back home is only possible if mom and dad have the spare room and groceries to make that feasible.

Government “help” during COVID-19 resulted in the worst inflation in 40 years, as the federal government spent $42,000 per citizen on “stimulus” efforts, right around a Millennial’s average salary at that time. An absurd amount of fraud was perpetrated in the stimulus to save an economy from the lockdown that nearly ruined itTrillions in earmarked goodies were rubber stamped, carelessly added to young people’s growing bill. Government lenders deliberately removed fraud controls, fearing they couldn’t hand out $800 billion in young people’s future wages away fast enough. Important lessons were taught by those programs. The importance of self-sufficiency and the dignity of hard work weren’t top of the list.

Boomer Benefits are Stagnating Hiring, Wages, and Investment for Young People

Even if our workplace engagement suffered under government distortions, Millennials continue to work more hours than other generations and invest in side hustles and self employment at higher rates. Working hard and winning higher wages almost doesn’t matter, though, when our purchasing power is eaten from the other side. Buying power has dropped 20 percent in just five years. Life is $11,400/year more expensive than it was two years ago and deficit spending is the reason why

We’re having trouble getting hired for what we’re worth, because it costs employers 30 percent more than just our wages to employ us. The federal tax code both requires and incentivizes our employers to transfer a bunch of what we earned directly to insurance companies and those same Boomer-busted federal benefits, via tax-deductible benefits and payroll taxes. And the regulatory compliance costs of ravenous bureaucratic state. The price paid by each employer to keep each employee continues to rise — but Congress says your boss has to give most of the increase to someone other than you. 

Federal spending programs that many people consider good government, including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and health insurance for children (CHIP) aren’t a small amount of the federal budget. Government spends on these programs because people support and demand them, and because cutting those benefits would be a re-election death sentence. That’s why they call cutting Social Security the “third rail of politics.” If you touch those benefits, you die. Congress is held hostage by Baby Boomers who are running up the bill with no sign of slowing down. 

Young people generally support Social Security and the public health insurance programs, even though a 2021 poll by Nationwide Financial found 47 percent of Millennials agree with the statement “I will not get a dime of the Social Security benefits I have earned.”

In the same survey, Millennials were the most likely of any generation to believe that Social Security benefits should be enough to live on as a sole income, and guessed the retirement age was 52 (it’s 67 for anyone born after 1959 — and that’s likely to rise). Young people are the most likely to see government guarantees as a valid way to live — even though we seem to understand that those promises aren’t guarantees at all.

Healthcare costs tied to an aging population and wonderful-but-expensive growth in medical technologies and medications will balloon over the next few years, and so will the deficits in Boomer benefit programs. Newly developed obesity drugs alone are expected to add $13.6 billion to Medicare spending. By 2030, every single Baby Boomer will be 65, eligible for publicly funded healthcare.

The first Millennial will be eligible to claim Medicare (assuming the program exists and the qualifying age is still 65, both of which are improbable) in 2046. As it happens, that’s also the year that the Boomer benefits programs (which will then be bloated with Gen Xers) and the interest payments we’re incurring to provide those benefits now, are projected to consume 100 percent of federal tax revenue.

Government spending is being transferred to bureaucrats and then to the beneficiaries of government spending who are, in some sense, your diabetic grandma who needs a Medicare-paid dialysis treatment, but in a much more immediate sense, are the insurance companiespharma giants, and hospital corporations who wrote the healthcare legislation. Some percentage of every college graduate’s paycheck buys bullets that get fired at nothing and inflating the private investment portfolios of government contractors, with dubious, wasteful outcomes from the prison-industrial complex to the perpetual war machine.

No bank or nation in the world can lend the kind of money the American government needs to borrow to fulfill its obligations to citizens. Someone will have to bite the bullet. Even some of the co-authors of the current disaster are wrestling with the truth. 

Forget avocado toast and streaming subscriptions. We’re already sensing it, but we haven’t yet seen it. Young people are not well-informed, and often actively misled, about what’s rotten in this economic system. But we are seeing the consequences on store shelves and mortgage contracts and we can sense disaster is coming. We’re about to get stuck with the bill.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/19/2024 - 20:20

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There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

Two years ago, we first said that it’s only a matter…

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There Goes The Fed's Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

Two years ago, we first said that it's only a matter of time before the Fed admits it is unable to rsolve the so-called "last mile" of inflation and that as a result, the old inflation target of 2% is no longer viable.

Then one year ago, we correctly said that while everyone was paying attention elsewhere, the inflation target had already been hiked to 2.8%... on the way to even more increases.

And while the Fed still pretends it can one day lower inflation to 2% even as it prepares to cut rates as soon as June, moments ago Goldman published a note from its economics team which had to balls to finally call a spade a spade, and concluded that - as party of the Fed's next big debate, i.e., rethinking the Neutral rate - both the neutral and terminal rate, a polite euphemism for the inflation target, are much higher than conventional wisdom believes, and that as a result Goldman is "penciling in a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% this cycle, 100bp above the peak reached last cycle."

There is more in the full Goldman note, but below we excerpt the key fragments:

We argued last cycle that the long-run neutral rate was not as low as widely thought, perhaps closer to 3-3.5% in nominal terms than to 2-2.5%. We have also argued this cycle that the short-run neutral rate could be higher still because the fiscal deficit is much larger than usual—in fact, estimates of the elasticity of the neutral rate to the deficit suggest that the wider deficit might boost the short-term neutral rate by 1-1.5%. Fed economists have also offered another reason why the short-term neutral rate might be elevated, namely that broad financial conditions have not tightened commensurately with the rise in the funds rate, limiting transmission to the economy.

Over the coming year, Fed officials are likely to debate whether the neutral rate is still as low as they assumed last cycle and as the dot plot implies....

...Translation: raising the neutral rate estimate is also the first step to admitting that the traditional 2% inflation target is higher than previously expected. And once the Fed officially crosses that particular Rubicon, all bets are off.

... Their thinking is likely to be influenced by distant forward market rates, which have risen 1-2pp since the pre-pandemic years to about 4%; by model-based estimates of neutral, whose earlier real-time values have been revised up by roughly 0.5pp on average to about 3.5% nominal and whose latest values are little changed; and by their perception of how well the economy is performing at the current level of the funds rate.

The bank's conclusion:

We expect Fed officials to raise their estimates of neutral over time both by raising their long-run neutral rate dots somewhat and by concluding that short-run neutral is currently higher than long-run neutral. While we are fairly confident that Fed officials will not be comfortable leaving the funds rate above 5% indefinitely once inflation approaches 2% and that they will not go all the way back to 2.5% purely in the name of normalization, we are quite uncertain about where in between they will ultimately land.

Because the economy is not sensitive enough to small changes in the funds rate to make it glaringly obvious when neutral has been reached, the terminal or equilibrium rate where the FOMC decides to leave the funds rate is partly a matter of the true neutral rate and partly a matter of the perceived neutral rate. For now, we are penciling in a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% this cycle, 100bps above the peak reached last cycle. This reflects both our view that neutral is higher than Fed officials think and our expectation that their thinking will evolve.

Not that this should come as a surprise: as a reminder, with the US now $35.5 trillion in debt and rising by $1 trillion every 100 days, we are fast approaching the Minsky Moment, which means the US has just a handful of options left: losing the reserve currency status, QEing the deficit and every new dollar in debt, or - the only viable alternative - inflating it all away. The only question we had before is when do "serious" economists make the same admission.

They now have.

And while we have discussed the staggering consequences of raising the inflation target by just 1% from 2% to 3% on everything from markets, to economic growth (instead of doubling every 35 years at 2% inflation target, prices would double every 23 years at 3%), and social cohesion, we will soon rerun the analysis again as the implications are profound. For now all you need to know is that with the US about to implicitly hit the overdrive of dollar devaluation, anything that is non-fiat will be much more preferable over fiat alternatives.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/19/2024 - 15:45

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