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FHA borrowers hit first, hardest by sinking economy

The fate of FHA-backed mortgages in the ongoing downcycle housing market is being compared with a canary in the coal mine by several industry experts who…

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FHA Commissioner Julia Gordon

The fate of Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed mortgages in the ongoing downcycle housing market is being compared with a canary in the coal mine by several industry experts who track the sector and are seeing early warning signs of distress.

In recent months, the canary has been chirping with far less exuberance as inflation (now above 7% annualized), rising mortgage rates, declining home values and the potential of faster-rising unemployment spurred on by a potential recession in the coming year all grip the FHA sector. Those forces are now shaking the timbers of the federal loan-guarantee program. 

Although there are clear signs that some borrowers with FHA-backed loans are starting to feel the pressure, market experts who spoke with HousingWire, also stress that, as of now, it looks like the timbers supporting the FHA program, which serves first-time and other lower-wealth borrowers, are strong enough to handle the market disruption. That doesn’t mean, however, that all FHA borrowers will survive the downturn unscathed.

We’re not seeing anything that indicates a real problem yet. But if you were to look out over the horizon and ask where there is an area of risk, this [FHA loans] would be one of them. 

Rick Sharga, executive vp of marketing at realtytrac

Richard Koss, chief of research at mortgage-data analytics firm Recursion, said because FHA borrower are on the lower range of the income scale, they are impacted by the current high-inflation environment far more than middle-class borrowers that are served by conventional loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

“Lower-income families have very limited ability to adjust to this [inflation] shock, particularly as their savings tend to be low and their budgets are already stretched,” Recursion reported in a blog post earlier this year. “As a result, the overall impact of higher inflation can be severe for this group. 

“According to the 2021 HMDA [Home Mortgage Disclosure Act] data, the median income of FHA borrowers is $65,000 per year, compared to $85,000 for VA and $105,000 for conventional borrowers.”

Koss described the FHA borrower as “the canary in the coal mine” for the rest of the market. 

First-time homebuyers represent more than 80% of FHA’s purchase volume, FHA data show. Over the past 14 years, FHA has insured 9.1 million in mortgages valued at $1.7 trillion to first-time homebuyers, according to the agency’s most fiscal 2022 annual report to Congress on the state of its mutual mortgage insurance fund (or MMI Fund).

In addition, some 75% of all high loan-to-value (LTV) mortgages made in the nation to first-time homebuyers with credit scores below 680 are insured by the FHA, and the bulk of all high-LTV loans to Black, Latino and rural borrowers are FHA-insured, the agency’s most recent annual report states. 

“We’re not seeing anything that indicates a real problem yet,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of marketing for real-estate research firm RealtyTrac. “But if you were to look out over the horizon and ask where there is an area of risk, this [FHA loans] would be one of them. 

“The inflationary impact, I believe, is candidly understated most of the time.”

Delinquency rates rise again

Over the 12 months ending this past September, FHA managed to cut the number of seriously delinquent borrowers — those 90 days or more past due on their loans — by nearly half, from 660,000 to about 340,000. The FHA seriously delinquent-loan rate likewise has declined precipitously from its peak of 8.81% to 4.77% over the same period. Much of the run-up in that dour-loan rate occurred during the pandemic, FHA reports.

FHA is always, by definition going to be [guaranteeing] more risky mortgages that are more susceptible to any shift in the marketplace. And I think we’re seeing a shift in the marketplace right now.

Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com

All is not coming up roses on the loan-delinquency front for FHA, however. Over the past eight months, the agency’s 30-day delinquency rate has been creeping upward, going from 2.72% as of April 1 to 4.35% as of Dec. 1, according to Recursion’s data. In addition, FHA’s early-payment default (EPD) rate, a measure of loans that become seriously delinquent within the first six months of the mortgage, also has been rising this year and is at its highest level since 2009, according to the most recent Black Knight Mortgage Monitor report.

FHA reported in its recent annual report that the EPD rate peaked at 9.27% at the height of the pandemic in July 2020 and has since declined to 1.7% as of October of this year, though it is up from the year-earlier mark of 1.5%.

“FHA is always, by definition going to be [guaranteeing] more risky mortgages that are more susceptible to any shift in the marketplace,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com. “And I think we’re seeing a shift in the marketplace right now.”

He added, however, that we’re still at less than half of pre-pandemic levels in terms of actual foreclosure auctions on properties.

“Now, what’s been encouraging is even though we’ve seen a little bit of an uptick in 30-day delinquencies, we really haven’t seen much in the way of serious delinquencies,” Sharga added. “So, they seem to be remedying those delinquencies early in the process, rather than rather than going further into delinquency and then into default.”

Falling property values

Adding to the potential future pressure on the FHA program, however, is the current climate of declining property values, which will affect more recent home purchases most. More than 25% of FHA-insured purchase-mortgage holders with loans originated during the first nine months of 2022 have dipped into negative equity, according to a recent Black Knight report, and nearly three-quarters have less than 10% equity in their properties.

Time will tell whether those 30-say delinquencies roll into 90 days and beyond.

Ed Pinto, director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute

“We’re anticipating from peak to trough about a 5% drop in home prices nationally,” Sharga said. “But it’s going to be a very localized correction. 

“So, you’ll have markets in places like California where it would not at all be a surprise to see prices drop 10%. But you’re also going to see markets — particularly in areas like the southeastern states — where prices not only won’t drop but will go up because they’re still seeing population growth and job growth.”

Blomquist added that even a 2% decline in home values would impact FHA borrowers who bought a home in the first six months of the year.  “And then some declines after that would put them potentially in that negative equity position,” he said — a reality already surfacing in the Black Knight data.

As a result, the FHA could be facing a wave of future defaults, depending on the severity of home-value declines over the next year, the pace of inflation and the potential for rising unemployment if the economy moves toward a recession on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening policy.

The Mortgage Bankers Association projects unemployment could reach 5.5% by the end of next year. Home prices are already declining and are projected to drop further over the next year by anywhere from a modest 1.5%, according to Fannie Mae, to as much as 20%, according to some market forecasts.

“We expect that unemployment is going to go up, and the fact that you’re already starting to see increases, albeit off a very low levels, in 30-day [FHA loan] delinquencies [likely due to inflation], that is a bit of a [concern],” said Ed Pinto, a senior fellow and the director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute. “…Time will tell whether those 30-say delinquencies roll into 90 days and beyond.”

A strong backstop for FHA loans

One bit of positive news that will likely spare the FHA sector from a collapse anywhere as severe as that experienced during the Great Recession is that the fund insuring FHA mortgages is now well capitalized. FHA’s recent annual report to Congress indicates that as of Sep. 30, 2022, “the MMI Fund achieved a capital reserve ratio of 11.11%, an increase of three percentage points from 2021.”

Sharga, Blomquist and Pinto all agree that the rising short-term FHA loan delinquencies is a trend they are keeping an eye on, but overall, they say the FHA program is prepared to endure some stress in the economy. However, they don’t discount that economic disruption would still result in a lot of pain for some borrowers.

There’s always a danger that to the extent that the market sees the 20% decline in housing prices that some people are forecasting [in the worse-case scenario], and a more severe recession, that could balloon this problem into a bigger problem 

Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com

Pinto said if unemployment rises above 5.5%, “that’s going to start impacting FHA more and more.”

“I think FHA is capitalized for a reasonable financial event here and much better than they’ve been in the past,” he said. “So, that’s good news.”

Pinto added that the FHA borrowers likely to be most affected by a triple whammy of rising unemployment, high inflation and falling home prices are in markets like Detroit, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Louisville and Stockton, California — metro areas that have higher concentrations of FHA borrowers.

“We’ve been saying for some time that most places are going to be able to withstand house price declines that we’re projecting at 10% to 15% by the end of next year,” Pinto said. 

For places that have high concentrations of FHA borrowers, however, the fallout will be more pronounced, he stressed. “… It’s unfortunate that some people will have to sell their homes, some people will get foreclosed on, but it’s not going to be huge numbers.”

Pinto said his data shows the 90-day delinquency rate for FHA loans has stabilized in the 3.7% range, down form 7.18% in October 2021. Along with a rising 30-day delinquency rate for FHA mortgages, however, he said there has been a slight uptick in the 60-day delinquency rate in recent months — from 1.35% in June to 1.63% as of October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. 

Sharga said even with FHA’s delinquency rates trending up a bit, they’re still below historic averages. “So, they’re performing worse than other mortgages, but they always perform worse than other loans, and they’re not unusually high for FHA,” he explained.

Blomquist added that FHA’s mortgage-insurance fund is very well capitalized now at slightly above 11%, “when the minimum is 2% of the total mortgages.”

“So, they’re in a very healthy financial position to weather an increase in defaults, but we are still very early” in the downturn cycle, he said. That means regulators, market leaders, lenders, loan officers and borrowers themselves should remain vigilant.

“There’s always a danger that to the extent that the market sees the 20% decline in housing prices that some people are forecasting [in the worse-case scenario], and a more severe recession, that could balloon this problem into a bigger problem,” Blomquist warned.

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Chronic stress and inflammation linked to societal and environmental impacts in new study

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors…

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From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

Credit: Image: Vodovotz et al/Frontiers

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

A new hypothesis published in Frontiers in Science suggests the negative impacts may extend far further.   

“We propose that stress, inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of the University of Pittsburgh, USA.

“This could affect the decision-making and behavior of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction and environmental degradation,” he added.

Bodily inflammation ‘mapped’ in the brain  

One central premise to the hypothesis is an association between chronic inflammation and cognitive dysfunction.  

“The cause of this well-known phenomenon is not currently known,” said Vodovotz. “We propose a mechanism, which we call the ‘central inflammation map’.”    

The authors’ novel idea is that the brain creates its own copy of bodily inflammation. Normally, this inflammation map allows the brain to manage the inflammatory response and promote healing.   

When inflammation is high or chronic, however, the response goes awry and can damage healthy tissues and organs. The authors suggest the inflammation map could similarly harm the brain and impair cognition, emotion, and behavior.   

Accelerated spread of stress and inflammation online   

A second premise is the spread of chronic inflammation from individuals to populations.  

“While inflammation is not contagious per se, it could still spread via the transmission of stress among people,” explained Vodovotz.   

The authors further suggest that stress is being transmitted faster than ever before, through social media and other digital communications.  

“People are constantly bombarded with high levels of distressing information, be it the news, negative online comments, or a feeling of inadequacy when viewing social media feeds,” said Vodovotz. “We hypothesize that this new dimension of human experience, from which it is difficult to escape, is driving stress, chronic inflammation, and cognitive impairment across global societies.”   

Inflammation as a driver of social and planetary disruption  

These ideas shift our view of inflammation as a biological process restricted to an individual. Instead, the authors see it as a multiscale process linking molecular, cellular, and physiological interactions in each of us to altered decision-making and behavior in populations – and ultimately to large-scale societal and environmental impacts.  

“Stress-impaired judgment could explain the chaotic and counter-intuitive responses of large parts of the global population to stressful events such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Vodovotz.  

“An inability to address these and other stressors may propagate a self-fulfilling sense of pervasive danger, causing further stress, inflammation, and impaired cognition in a runaway, positive feedback loop,” he added.  

The fact that current levels of global stress have not led to widespread societal disorder could indicate an equally strong stabilizing effect from “controllers” such as trust in laws, science, and multinational organizations like the United Nations.   

“However, societal norms and institutions are increasingly being questioned, at times rightly so as relics of a foregone era,” said Prof Paul Verschure of Radboud University, the Netherlands, and a co-author of the article. “The challenge today is how we can ward off a new adversarial era of instability due to global stress caused by a multi-scale combination of geopolitical fragmentation, conflicts, and ecological collapse amplified by existential angst, cognitive overload, and runaway disinformation.”    

Reducing social media exposure as part of the solution  

The authors developed a mathematical model to test their ideas and explore ways to reduce stress and build resilience.  

“Preliminary results highlight the need for interventions at multiple levels and scales,” commented co-author Prof Julia Arciero of Indiana University, USA.  

“While anti-inflammatory drugs are sometimes used to treat medical conditions associated with inflammation, we do not believe these are the whole answer for individuals,” said Dr David Katz, co-author and a specialist in preventive and lifestyle medicine based in the US. “Lifestyle changes such as healthy nutrition, exercise, and reducing exposure to stressful online content could also be important.”  

“The dawning new era of precision and personalized therapeutics could also offer enormous potential,” he added.  

At the societal level, the authors suggest creating calm public spaces and providing education on the norms and institutions that keep our societies stable and functioning.  

“While our ‘inflammation map’ hypothesis and corresponding mathematical model are a start, a coordinated and interdisciplinary research effort is needed to define interventions that would improve the lives of individuals and the resilience of communities to stress. We hope our article stimulates scientists around the world to take up this challenge,” Vodovotz concluded.  

The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub ‘A multiscale map of inflammatory stress’. The hub features a video, an explainer, a version of the article written for kids, and an editorial, viewpoints, and policy outlook from other eminent experts: Prof David Almeida (Penn State University, USA), Prof Pietro Ghezzi (University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy), and Dr Ioannis P Androulakis (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA). 


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Acadia’s Nuplazid fails PhIII study due to higher-than-expected placebo effect

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia…

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After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia due to the placebo arm performing better than expected.

Steve Davis

“We will continue to analyze these data with our scientific advisors, but we do not intend to conduct any further clinical trials with pimavanserin,” CEO Steve Davis said in a Monday press release. Acadia’s stock $ACAD dropped by 17.41% before the market opened Tuesday.

Pimavanserin, a serotonin inverse agonist and also a 5-HT2A receptor antagonist, is already in the market with the brand name Nuplazid for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Efforts to expand into other indications such as Alzheimer’s-related psychosis and major depression have been unsuccessful, and previous trials in schizophrenia have yielded mixed data at best. Its February presentation does not list other pimavanserin studies in progress.

The Phase III ADVANCE-2 trial investigated 34 mg pimavanserin versus placebo in 454 patients who have negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The study used the negative symptom assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score as a primary endpoint and followed participants up to week 26. Study participants have control of positive symptoms due to antipsychotic therapies.

The company said that the change from baseline in this measure for the treatment arm was similar between the Phase II ADVANCE-1 study and ADVANCE-2 at -11.6 and -11.8, respectively. However, the placebo was higher in ADVANCE-2 at -11.1, when this was -8.5 in ADVANCE-1. The p-value in ADVANCE-2 was 0.4825.

In July last year, another Phase III schizophrenia trial — by Sumitomo and Otsuka — also reported negative results due to what the company noted as Covid-19 induced placebo effect.

According to Mizuho Securities analysts, ADVANCE-2 data were disappointing considering the company applied what it learned from ADVANCE-1, such as recruiting patients outside the US to alleviate a high placebo effect. The Phase III recruited participants in Argentina and Europe.

Analysts at Cowen added that the placebo effect has been a “notorious headwind” in US-based trials, which appears to “now extend” to ex-US studies. But they also noted ADVANCE-1 reported a “modest effect” from the drug anyway.

Nonetheless, pimavanserin’s safety profile in the late-stage study “was consistent with previous clinical trials,” with the drug having an adverse event rate of 30.4% versus 40.3% with placebo, the company said. Back in 2018, even with the FDA approval for Parkinson’s psychosis, there was an intense spotlight on Nuplazid’s safety profile.

Acadia previously aimed to get Nuplazid approved for Alzheimer’s-related psychosis but had many hurdles. The drug faced an adcomm in June 2022 that voted 9-3 noting that the drug is unlikely to be effective in this setting, culminating in a CRL a few months later.

As for the company’s next R&D milestones, Mizuho analysts said it won’t be anytime soon: There is the Phase III study for ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome with data expected late next year and a Phase II trial for ACP-204 in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis with results anticipated in 2026.

Acadia collected $549.2 million in full-year 2023 revenues for Nuplazid, with $143.9 million in the fourth quarter.

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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