Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

BLS: May Unemployment rates down in 38 states; 4 States at New Record Highs

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in May in 38 states and the District of Columbia, higher in 3 states, and stable in 9 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 5...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declines Slightly for the third consecutive week

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.From Black Knight:The number of homeowners in active forbearance fell again this week. Overall, the number of active forbe...

June 18 COVID-19 Test Results; Most Positive Results Since Early May

Note: I started posting this graph when the US was doing a few thousand tests per day. Clearly the US was way under testing early in the pandemic. I'll continue posting this graph daily at least until the percent positive is continuously under 3% and...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted an...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 43.4% Year-over-year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 13 JuneU.S. hotel performance data ending with 13 June showed another small rise from previous weeks and less severe year-over-year declines, according to STR.7-13 June 2020 (percentage cha...