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Fed’s Financial Accounts Report Unexpectedly Reveal Terrible News For Markets

Fed’s Financial Accounts Report Unexpectedly Reveal Terrible News For Markets

Two weeks ago we calculated that based on the recent collapse…

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Fed's Financial Accounts Report Unexpectedly Reveal Terrible News For Markets

Two weeks ago we calculated that based on the recent collapse in stock prices, US households have lost at least $20 trillion in net worth simply because financial assets (unlike tangible assets such as real estate) represent the vast majority of the US household balance sheet (at least that of the top 10%; the bottom 50% have virtually no assets but lots of liabilities, i.e., debt).

Today, the Fed released its quarterly Financial Accounts (also known as Flow of Funds or Z.1) statement which, among other things, gives the official estimation of household net worth for the US (along with fund flows and stock levels for all aspects of the US economy). The only problem is that as of March 31, said "calculation" was laughable, with the Fed - which clearly has gotten its pig lipsticking marching orders from the Biden admin - reporting that in the first quarter, in which stocks basically crashed into a bear market, wiping out tens of trillions in market cap, household net worth decreased by only $0.5 trillion in the first quarter, fueled by a $3 trillion drop in stock values (and offset by a $1.7 trillion increase in real estate, the same increase which the Fed is scrambling to destroy by sending mortgage rates into orbit), or visually:

This is laughable because as we noted at the end of May, just the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people had by dropped $1.6 trillion since its peak in November, as calculated by Bloomberg, with US Billionaires losing $800 billion, or more than the entire US supposedly lost in net worth in the entire first quarter.

Why would the Fed embellish yet another number? Perhaps because the Biden admin, already pounded daily on all sides by attacks its senile incompetence has sparked the worst stagflationary economic crash in 40 years, did not want to also be accused of wiping out tens of trillions in net worth. Well, the Fed may have kicked the can, but it won't be able to do it for much longer: as the next chart shows, unless stocks make some remarkable recovery in the next 3 weeks, the Q2 net worth crash will be the biggest ever, and this time not even the Fed can do anything to make it less painful.

Laughable of not, let's dig into the the numbers, if only for the sake of continuity, straight from he Fed:

  • The net worth of households and nonprofit organizations declined $0.5 trillion to $149.3 trillion in the first quarter. A sizeable $3 trillion decline in the value of stocks on the household balance sheet was partially offset by an increase in the value of real estate ($1.6 trillion) and a continued high rate of personal saving. The ratio of household net worth to disposable income was about equal to the record high of 8.2 posted last quarter and remains well above the level seen just before the pandemic in 2019.

  • Directly and indirectly held corporate equities ($46.3 trillion) and household real estate ($39.7 trillion) were among the largest components of household net worth. Household debt (seasonally adjusted) was $18.3 trillion.

  • Household Balance Sheet Summary

  • Nonfinancial debt: Household debt grew by 8.3% in the first quarter of 2022 (this and subsequent rates of growth are reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate), a bit higher than in the previous quarter. Home mortgages increased by 8.6% amid surging home prices, and nonmortgage consumer credit increased by 8.7%, buoyed by rapid growth in credit card borrowing and auto loans.

  • Nonfinancial business debt grew at a rate of 8.0%, reflecting strong growth in loans, both from depository institutions and from nondepository institutions, and modest net issuance of corporate bonds. Federal debt increased by 14.9%. State and local debt decreased by 3.0%. Looking at the various components of nonfinancial business debt, nonmortgage depository loans to nonfinancial business increased by $79 billion in the first quarter. Loans from nondepository institutions also increased, as did commercial mortgages and corporate bonds outstanding. Overall, outstanding nonfinancial corporate debt was $12.2 trillion. Corporate bonds, at roughly $6.7 trillion, accounted for 55% of the total. Nonmortgage depository loans were about $1.2 trillion. Other types of debt include loans from nonbank institutions, loans from the federal government, and commercial paper.

As we said above, none of the above matters due to the clear massaging of the headline data meant to represent the economy as stronger than it is.

However, while we know that US households were much poorer than the Fed tried to represent as of March 31, what is far more ominous is what today's Flow of Funds report implied for future stock prices.

As Bloomberg's Ye Xie shows in the next chart, which as as noted previously shows a strong correlation between investor allocation to stocks over debt and the subsequent equity returns, a dismal decade is facing stocks simply because higher equity valuation has tended to lead to lower future returns.

As Xie notes, the black line above shows the annualized stock return that investors earned over the subsequent 10 years. In 1999, the line fell to about minus 5%. That means investors lost 5% a year over the following decade.  Meanwhile, the (inverted) yellow line tracks the value of U.S. equities divided by the combined value of stocks and debt -- suggesting whether stocks are cheap or expensive (more here).

So where are we now? the current reading of the stock/bond valuation ratio is at the similar level of the peak of the dot.com bubble at the turn of the century. It points to sub-zero returns for the next 10 years!

Xie's conclusion: "brace for a lost decade."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/09/2022 - 16:40

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Government

Prevalence of gender-diverse youth in rural Appalachia exceeds previous estimates, WVU study shows

Gender-diverse youth are at an increased risk of suicide and depression, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But the prevalence…

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Gender-diverse youth are at an increased risk of suicide and depression, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But the prevalence of gender diversity is largely unknown—especially in rural areas, where studies of the topic are rare. 

Credit: WVU Photo/Sean Hines

Gender-diverse youth are at an increased risk of suicide and depression, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But the prevalence of gender diversity is largely unknown—especially in rural areas, where studies of the topic are rare. 

To fill that knowledge gap, researchers at West Virginia University— along with their colleagues at the University of Washington and Boise State University — surveyed junior high and high school students in rural Appalachia about their gender identity. They asked about the students’ internal sense of being male, being female or having another identity, like nonbinary. They found that more than 7% of young people surveyed shared a gender identity that did not fully align with the sex they were assigned at birth.  

These findings were published in JAMA Pediatrics.

Being gender diverse, including being transgender, nonbinary or having another gender identity that doesn’t match the sex assigned at birth, is not a medical concern and is considered a normal part of human experience, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. 

Even though gender diversity isn’t an illness, some young people who are gender diverse experience distress when their gender doesn’t align with their physical characteristics or treatment in society. This distress, called “gender dysphoria,” can be associated with higher rates of depression or even thoughts of self-harm, prior research suggests.

“We have a lot of studies that suggest gender-diverse youth are two to four times as likely to experience depression and thoughts of self-harm as their cisgender peers, or young people whose sex assigned at birth and gender identity fully align,” said WVU School of Medicine researcher Dr. Kacie Kidd, who co-authored the study. “This is an area where we need to do more research. We need to better understand how to support these young people, especially now that we are increasingly recognizing that they are here and would likely benefit from the support.”

Other study authors include Alfgeir Kristjansson, an associate professor with the WVU School of Public Health; Brandon Benton, a nurse with WVU Medicine; Gina Sequeira, of the University of Washington; and Michael Mann and Megan Smith, of Boise State University. 

Few studies have asked young people directly about their gender identity. 

A 2017 study suggested that West Virginia had the highest per capita rate of transgender youth in the country at just over 1%. 

“Prior studies have used less inclusive questions when asking young people about their identity,” said Kidd, an assistant professor of pediatrics and internal medicine. “We suspected that this underestimated the prevalence of gender-diverse youth.” 

She and her colleagues had previously asked these more inclusive questions to young people in Pittsburgh, a city in Appalachia. Nearly 10% of youth in that sample reported having a gender-diverse identity. 

“Despite the high prevalence of gender-diverse identities found in our Pittsburgh study, information about rural areas was still unknown,” Kidd said. “We suspect that many of the young people in rural Appalachia who shared their gender-diverse identities with us in this study may benefit from additional support, especially if they do not feel seen and supported at home and in their community.” 

This new study is one of many to recognize that researchers interested in gender diversity face a dearth of data when it comes to rural areas.  

It’s also one of many studies to recognize that gender-diverse individuals can face a scarcity of health care options, affirming social networks and other forms of support in those same rural areas.

For example, in a recent study led by Megan Gandy, BSW program director and assistant professor at the WVU School of Social Work, up to 61% of participants said they had to travel out of West Virginia to access gender-related care.

And another recent study conducted by Zachary Ramsey, a doctoral candidate in the WVU School of Public Health, found that rural areas could present unique barriers to sexual and gender minorities. 

Those barriers included discrimination and heteronormativity — or, the belief that a heterosexual and cisgender identity is the only “normal” one. They also included a lack of training for health care providers in handling LGBTQ concerns.

“Adolescent mental health is at a crisis point, according to the Centers for Disease Control,” Kidd said. “We have an access concern because so many young people need mental health services nationwide and we just don’t have enough mental health professionals to meet that need. It’s a growing problem and certainly gender-diverse youth are at an even greater risk.” 

In CDC data, the number of adolescents reporting poor mental health has increased, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Support from parents, schools, communities and health care providers has been associated with improved mental health outcomes, especially for gender-diverse youth.  

“Gender-diverse youth are incredible young people, and — as our study found — many of them live in rural areas,” Kidd said. “It is important that we ensure they have access to support so that they are able to thrive.”

Citation: The prevalence of gender-diverse youth in a rural Appalachian region”

Research reported in this publication was supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under Award Number U48DP006391 and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality under Award Number 5K12HS02693-03. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC or AHRQ.


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Economics

NY Fed Inflation Expectations Plunge Most On Record, But There Is A Catch…

NY Fed Inflation Expectations Plunge Most On Record, But There Is A Catch…

Readers will recall that according to Jerome Powell’s own presser,…

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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Plunge Most On Record, But There Is A Catch...

Readers will recall that according to Jerome Powell's own presser, the Fed's first 75bps rate hike in more than two decades was erroneously prompted by an abnormally higher preliminary UMich 5-10 year inflation print (which was subsequently revised lower in the final number). Well, if the Fed is so data-dependent that it now react to preliminary econ data prints, then the latest data out of the NY Fed's monthly Consumer Expectations survey would suggest a rate cut may be on deck.

Today at 11am ET, the NY Fed released its latest Consumer Expectations survey which showed a record drop in short-, medium- and longer-term inflation expectations: specifically, inflation expectations at the 1-year horizon decreased to 6.22% in July - the lowest since February - from the previous month’s 6.78%, the biggest monthly drop on record as expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas and food fell sharply. At the same time, median three-year-ahead inflation expectations also declined, from 3.62% to 3.18%, lowest since April 2021.

"Both decreases were broad based across income groups, but largest among respondents with annual household incomes under $50k and respondents with no more than a high school education," the report noted.

Finally, the median five-year ahead inflation expectations, surveyed intermittently since the beginning of this year, fell from 2.8% to 2.3%. After being stable at 3.0% during the first three months of the year, the series has been trending down since. Disagreement across respondents in their five-year ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged in July.

The Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined slightly at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons. Uncertainty at the five-year-ahead horizon decreased more substantially.

Putting the move in context, while the NY Fed's 3 Year inflation expectations overshot most other forward inflation trackers, it also has tumbled the most in recent months.

 

Separately, home price growth expectations and year-ahead spending growth expectations continued to pull back from recent series highs. Households’ income growth expectations improved. Some more details:

  • Median expected change in home prices one year from now fell to 3.46% from 4.38%, its third consecutive decrease and its lowest reading of the series since November 2020. The decline was broad based across education and income groups and across census regions, but was largest in the Northeast census region.
  • Decrease in expected gas price growth second largest on record in available data going back to 2013; decline in food price growth expectations largest since series began; Over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 1.46%; food prices to rise 6.66%; medical costs to rise 9.2%; the price of a college education to rise 8.43%; rent prices to rise 9.91%
  • Expectations about year-ahead price changes decreased sharply by 4.2 percentage points for gas (to 1.5%) and by 2.5 percentage points for food (to 6.7%). The decrease in expected gas price growth was the second largest in the series, just below the 4.5 percentage point decline in April of this year. The decline in food price growth expectations was the largest observed since the beginning of the series in June 2013. There were smaller declines in expectations about year-ahead changes in rent (from 10.3% to 9.9%), medical care (from 9.5% to 9.2%), and college education (from 8.7% to 8.4%).

The red arrow on the chart below shows just how remarkable the collapse in gas price expectations is: while we are confident the survey organizers phrased this question on purpose in a way to make the Biden admin look good, we doubt they expected that the result would be respondents calling for a mid-2023 depression!

Aside from inflation, survey respondents had the following expectations about the...

Labor market:

  • Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.0% in July for the seventh consecutive month.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 40.2%.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months declined slightly to 11.8% from 11.9%, remaining well below its pre-pandemic reading of 13.8% in February 2020. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months rose to 19.5% from 18.6% in June. The series has moved within a narrow 18.6% to 20.4% range over the past year.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one’s current job was lost) declined to 55.9% from 56.8%, moving slightly below its trailing 12-month average of 56.5%.

A quick aside here to point out just how ludicrous the survey now is thanks to today's responses which on one hand see a collapse in inflation expectations... and also at the same time the majority sees the unemployment rate dropping from here to new all time lows (as just 40% see higher unemployment).

Yes, we know that survey respondents don't really do Econ 101, but one would at least have hoped that the survey organizers would avoid a situation where they have two mutually impossible outcomes!

Household Finance

  • The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point in July to 3.4%, a new series high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents without a college education and with lower (below $50k) annual household incomes.
  • Median year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations fell by 1.5 percentage points to 6.9% in July, well below its series high of 9.0% in May, but remains above its trailing 12-month average of 6.4%. The decline, the largest in this series, was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago continued to deteriorate in July, with the share of respondents finding it harder to obtain credit now than a year ago reaching a series high. Expectations about future credit availability improved slightly.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 10.8%, remaining below its pre-pandemic level of 11.4% in February 2020.
  • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) increased by 0.4 percentage point to 4.9%.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 10.7%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now decreased to 34.1% from 35.7%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved slightly in July, with slightly fewer respondents reporting being financially worse off than they were a year ago. Respondents were also more optimistic about their household’s financial situation in the year ahead, with fewer respondents expecting their financial situation to deteriorate a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased to 34.3% from 33.8%.

In summary, while this survey clearly is meant to serve political means (i.e., collapsing gas price expectations), it fails to be even remotely coherent, with most respondents expecting unemployment to fall further. Newsflash: that means no recession, it also means gas prices soar from here.

But since we doubt anyone except us will have read the fine print of the survey, the media will be happy to pump the headline that "inflation expectations" are collapsing for one simple reason: it makes both Biden and the Fed look good. As for the final outcome of current fiscal and monetary policies, let's just check back in one year and see where inflation truly is in the summer of 2023.

More in the full NY Fed report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/08/2022 - 12:40

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Economics

US Shale Defy Calls To Boost Output As They Funnel Profits To Shareholders

US Shale Defy Calls To Boost Output As They Funnel Profits To Shareholders

US shale is still acting with restraint in terms of production…

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US Shale Defy Calls To Boost Output As They Funnel Profits To Shareholders

US shale is still acting with restraint in terms of production growth despite President Biden's calls to increase supplies to squash energy prices that were driven up due to soaring demand, decarbonization efforts, lack of refinery capacity, limited spare capacity, and, of course, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

ConocoPhillips, Pioneer Natural Resources, and Devon Energy recorded soaring profits in the second quarter, though many of these top shale oil and gas producers were reluctant to boost capital spending to increase output despite elevated prices for crude, according to Financial Times

Executives of these companies are under pressure from Wall Street to return record profits in the form of dividends and share buybacks to investors rather than increasing capital expenditures to boost production. It comes after years of burning cash and issuing equity to survive the multiple boom-bust cycles that paralyzed the shale industry. 

Then there was the chaos of slumping crude oil demand in the virus pandemic lockdowns, and WTI plunged below $0 per barrel for the first time. US shale drillers have rearranged their priorities from exceptional growth rates to stable rates that attempt to prevent another dark winter. The capital that would typically be deployed for drilling is being rerouted to shareholders:

"Unless we have shareholders that come in and say, look, we absolutely — we do not like these big dividends. We do not like your share repurchase program. We want you to go back to a growth model," Rick Muncrief, chief executive of Devon Energy, a top shale producer, told investors. "Until we see that, I see no reason to change our strategy." 

Other shale executives reiterated Muncrief's message as they all remain defiant to the Biden administration's request to increase production. In response, Biden and other western politicians have slammed shale companies' decision not to increase output. 

According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude production is around 12.1 million barrels a day. Production levels remain 800,000b/d from the pre-coronavirus pandemic highs. 

Occidental Petroleum is another shale company concentrating on debt repayments and cleaning up its balance sheet than expanding production. 

"We don't feel the need to grow production," said the company's chief executive Vicki Hollub. "We feel like one of the best values right now is an investment in our own stock." Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has bought a 20% stake in the company, helping equity value to double over the past year. 

"This year has marked a reversal in the shale industry's fortunes after hefty losses during the pandemic, although fears of a recession have once again cast a cloud over its prospects," FT said. 

Shale also has another problem: its inability to raise production due to bottlenecks in the industry. 

Last month, Halliburton Co.'s CEO Jeff Miller warned oilfield equipment market is so tight that oil explorers are limited to the amount of production they can bring online. 

Miller said oil companies don't have enough fracking equipment for newly leased wells this year. He said diesel-powered and electric equipment are in short supply, "making it almost impossible to add incremental capacity this year." 

similar message was conveyed by Exxon Mobil, whose CEO said that global oil markets might remain tight for another three to five years primarily because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.

"Availability of frac fleets is one of main bottlenecks impeding oil and natural as production growth for the next 18 months," Robert Drummond, chief executive officer of fracking firm NexTier Oilfield Solutions, recently told Reuters

... this bottleneck is due to several years of divestment and decarbonization -- making the days of shale roaring back to life over for now.   

So shale execs funnel profits back to shareholders instead of boosting production -- and even if they were to increase output, there are severe bottlenecks in the equipment space that inhibits bringing on new rigs. 

Making matters worse for the Biden administration, OPEC+ only increased production last week by a measly 100k barrel per day in output for September - considerably less than the 300-400k increase expected by many. This means OPEC+ has limited spare capacity, so crude prices should stay elevated overall. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/08/2022 - 12:15

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