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FedEx Stock Forecast

FedEx is an overlooked opportunity and that’s why I’m sharing a FedEx stock forecast today. The company continues to benefit from increased shipping.
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FedEx (NYSE: FDX) stock is an investment that is not usually front-of-mind for many people. This is an overlooked opportunity and that’s why I’m sharing a FedEx stock forecast today.

You might see a truck go by on the interstate in either the orange and purple logo or the green. You might receive a package from them, but for me anyways it’s a rare occurrence.

Despite its seeming elusiveness, FedEx is a huge company with many divisions.

Below I’ll go into more depth about whether FedEx is a good investment.

FedEx Stock Forecast – Company Intro

FedEx is primarily a shipping company. That’s what it’s best known for. It offers a variety of print, design and promotional products, too.

It has many different branches, which headquarter in various places around the U.S. But it’s mostly in Memphis, Tennessee.

The company has been innovative, with a focus on time-sensitive shipments. It was the first company to offer online tracking and online shipment processing. And FedEx is still innovating today, using robots and drones to deliver packages.

The statistics on its website are very impressive. It connects 99% of the global GDP and has an average daily volume of 18 million packages. That last stat goes for the FedEx Corporation alone.

FedEx has separated into seven different branches. Each one handles a different body of work.

FedEx Corporation caters more to businesses. FedEx Express handles air-ground time sensitive packages. There are five others that each have a different role. There’s FedEx Services, FedEx Ground, Freight, Office and Logistics.

Also, each one has a different color logo. Which explains the orange and green differences you see on the highway. Apparently, that actually means something.

FedEx Stock Observations

Going into 2020, FedEx stock was in the midst of a bear run. Then COVID hit and brought the stock price soaring. It hit its peak at the end of May 2021. From its lows at the start of the pandemic to its high, it rose about 200%.

Since then, it’s been correcting and declining. But it’s still much higher than it was a year and some months ago.

Trading Volume

FedEx stock volume has remained steady, with a gradual spike happening last year. Since then, volume has declined. That isn’t to say it won’t come back up again soon. It very well may do so, especially with all the new employees and workers coming in before Christmas. As it gets closer to the holidays, I expect volume to rise again.

As mentioned, FedEx is often overlooked, along with its industry. Although, there are many industries and investments like this that have produced great returns for investors. For example, check out these top fast food stocks and travel stocks.

FedEx Financial Health

FedEx’s total debt comes in close to $40 billion. Don’t be alarmed, though. It also has close to $83 billion in total assets. With these numbers a debt-ratio comes in below 0.5, which is solid.

In the transportation industry, the average ratio is around 0.6. Investors usually look for companies with 0.3 to 0.6, so FedEx is well within this range.

For May of 2021, FedEx reported over $22 billion in sales and close to a $2 billion net income. This gives it a healthy net profit margin of 8.28%.

There was a study done by New York Stern’s School of Business. It confirmed the average American transport business brings in 3.88% in net profits. FedEx is flying very high this year with its 8.28%.

Its revenue, net income, diluted EPS, net profit margin, operating income and cash on hand are all up in very healthy amounts.

There are two “negatives” that I see from a quick look at its recent financial report. One is that the cost of revenue has gone up by 10%. The other is that the “net change in cash” says it has $1.77 billion less than the last year.

These are not necessarily bad, though. You also must think about its recent great profit margins. And the fact that it’s growing its team like crazy.

Paired together, these two factors most likely mean it’s expanding and reinvesting. Which is a good thing. I assume these two changes are directly related to its preparation and onboarding of 90,000 new employees this year. That number is almost 30% higher than last year’s number of new workers.

FedEx Stock News

FedEx has recently paired up with Salesforce. It plans to create an end-to-end e-commerce solution. And it expects it to be ready by Spring of 2022. It wants to improve customer experience, while allowing businesses to easily handle inflated demand. This is a key consideration that plays into a FedEx stock forecast.

Like I said earlier, FedEx also plans to hire 90,000 new employees before Christmas. Last year, it onboarded 70,000 new workers. So, it is really taking advantage of the momentum from COVID. It’s adding around 30% new hires this year over last.

In the past couple of years, sometime in 2019, FedEx and Amazon decided not to renew its contract. The contract was for FedEx to deliver packages for Amazon. I’m not sure who initiated ending the relationship.

FedEx saw that Amazon was trying to compete with them. It started to deliver its own packages and provide its own ground shipping. Amazon was a small piece of FedEx’s entire business puzzle, though. So, FedEx is not suffering because of that.

It may also just be a peaceful transition. One where FedEx knew Amazon would want to provide its own shipping. And so, FedEx helped Amazon until it could handle things on its own.

Either way, I highly doubt FedEx is suffering.

One cool thing that happened in 2016. FedEx went into an agreement with Red Rock Biofuels to buy alternative jet fuel made from wood waste. Exploring different energy sources like this might help lower costs over time.

Is FedEx Stock a Good Buy Now?

FedEx stock is on a correction right now. The company has visions for the future, and it has a history of innovation and success.

Right now, FedEx gets an average hold rating from many analysts. It’s still well above its pandemic lows and the recent pullback makes it a better value opportunity. It has a current P/E ratio of 13. The industry average is close to 17.

It may be wise to watch it for a bit and see what happens. If it goes down, it may present a great buying opportunity. If the stock goes up, it might be smart to hold off a bit and wait for a bigger decline.

The company is aggressively expanding, though. And it will only have more revenue coming in before the holidays, and when the holidays hit.

Another thing to keep in mind is that you won’t always get “the perfect price” on a stock. If a company has had great success in the past, it will likely continue to have great success in the future.

And FedEx has indeed had great success in the past. If you’re looking for more investing opportunities, sign up for Wealthy Retirement below. It’s a free e-letter that’s packed with tips and tricks. You’ll hear from one of the best income experts, Marc Lichtenfeld. He literally wrote the book on how to get rich with dividends.

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Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation

While demand for trucking has increased, so have costs and competition, which have forced a number of players to close.

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The U.S. economy is built on trucks.

As a nation we have relatively limited train assets, and while in recent years planes have played an expanded role in moving goods, trucks still represent the backbone of how everything — food, gasoline, commodities, and pretty much anything else — moves around the country.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

"Trucks moved 61.1% of the tonnage and 64.9% of the value of these shipments. The average shipment by truck was 63 miles compared to an average of 640 miles by rail," according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2023 numbers.

But running a trucking company has been tricky because the largest players have economies of scale that smaller operators don't. That puts any trucking company that's not a massive player very sensitive to increases in gas prices or drops in freight rates.

And that in turn has led a number of trucking companies, including Yellow Freight, the third-largest less-than-truckload operator; J.J. & Sons Logistics, Meadow Lark, and Boateng Logistics, to close while freight brokerage Convoy shut down in October.

Aside from Convoy, none of these brands are household names. but with the demand for trucking increasing, every company that goes out of business puts more pressure on those that remain, which contributes to increased prices.

Demand for trucking has continued to increase.

Image source: Shutterstock

Another freight company closes and plans to liquidate

Not every bankruptcy filing explains why a company has gone out of business. In the trucking industry, multiple recent Chapter 7 bankruptcies have been tied to lawsuits that pushed otherwise successful companies into insolvency.

In the case of TBL Logistics, a Virginia-based national freight company, its Feb. 29 bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Virginia appears to be death by too much debt.

"In its filing, TBL Logistics listed its assets and liabilities as between $1 million and $10 million. The company stated that it has up to 49 creditors and maintains that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors once it pays administrative fees," Freightwaves reported.

The company's owners, Christopher and Melinda Bradner, did not respond to the website's request for comment.

Before it closed, TBL Logistics specialized in refrigerated and oversized loads. The company described its business on its website.

"TBL Logistics is a non-asset-based third-party logistics freight broker company providing reliable and efficient transportation solutions, management, and storage for businesses of all sizes. With our extensive network of carriers and industry expertise, we streamline the shipping process, ensuring your goods reach their destination safely and on time."

The world has a truck-driver shortage

The covid pandemic forced companies to consider their supply chain in ways they never had to before. Increased demand showed the weakness in the trucking industry and drew attention to how difficult life for truck drivers can be.

That was an issue HBO's John Oliver highlighted on his "Last Week Tonight" show in October 2022. In the episode, the host suggested that the U.S. would basically start to starve if the trucking industry shut down for three days.

"Sorry, three days, every produce department in America would go from a fully stocked market to an all-you-can-eat raccoon buffet," he said. "So it’s no wonder trucking’s a huge industry, with more than 3.5 million people in America working as drivers, from port truckers who bring goods off ships to railyards and warehouses, to long-haul truckers who move them across the country, to 'last-mile' drivers, who take care of local delivery." 

The show highlighted how many truck drivers face low pay, difficult working conditions and, in many cases, crushing debt.

"Hundreds of thousands of people become truck drivers every year. But hundreds of thousands also quit. Job turnover for truckers averages over 100%, and at some companies it’s as high as 300%, meaning they’re hiring three people for a single job over the course of a year. And when a field this important has a level of job satisfaction that low, it sure seems like there’s a huge problem," Oliver shared.

The truck-driver shortage is not just a U.S. problem; it's a global issue, according to IRU.org.

"IRU’s 2023 driver shortage report has found that over three million truck driver jobs are unfilled, or 7% of total positions, in 36 countries studied," the global transportation trade association reported. 

"With the huge gap between young and old drivers growing, it will get much worse over the next five years without significant action."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Wendy’s has a new deal for daylight savings time haters

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

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Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

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"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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