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Fannie Mae Chief Economist Wins Blue Chip Forecasting Award

Fannie Mae Chief Economist Wins Blue Chip Forecasting Award
PR Newswire
TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 13, 2022

Douglas Duncan to share 2023 predictions and accept the Lawrence R. Klein Award at Oct. 12 event.
TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 13, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — As e…

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Fannie Mae Chief Economist Wins Blue Chip Forecasting Award

PR Newswire

Douglas Duncan to share 2023 predictions and accept the Lawrence R. Klein Award at Oct. 12 event.

TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 13, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- As economic uncertainty continues amidst market turmoil and talks of recession, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Douglas G. Duncan predicts a modest recession, characterized by competing effects of inflation and a strong labor market.

Duncan will deliver his 2023 economic outlook at a live event, Wednesday, Oct. 12 from 6 to 8 p.m. Eastern time at the University Club of New York. At the event, Duncan will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. A livestream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern, and is free for the public to view.

The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc.

"It is a real honor for the Fannie Mae forecast team to be recognized with the Lawrence R. Klein Award," said Duncan. "While it is a permanent challenge to accurately forecast macroeconomic activity, it has been particularly difficult during the period including the pandemic. The advent of unparalleled monetary and fiscal policy actions, combined with the lack of health-related historical information on which to base modelled forecasts, required an atypical amount of judgment and humility. Such will continue to be the case in macroeconomic forecasting in the days, weeks, and months ahead, as the repositioning of global supply chains, the ongoing war in Ukraine, global tightening of monetary policy, and fiscal policy constraints challenge us and our forecasting brethren in offering guidance to industry, households, and government."

Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, will present Duncan his award, which will be followed by his economic forecast for the coming year. Chryssa Halley, Fannie Mae Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will introduce Duncan.

"The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years," says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. "I commend Doug Duncan and his team at Fannie Mae for their remarkable predictions during a period of extensive market fluctuation and instability." 

Duncan is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets at Fannie Mae. He also oversees strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry. Under his leadership, Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group won the NABE Outlook Award, presented annually for the most accurate GDP and Treasury note yield forecasts, in both 2015 and 2016 – the first recipient in the award's history to capture the honor two years in a row. In addition, the team was awarded by Pulsenomics for best home price forecast. Duncan was also named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek's 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate.

Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. His experience also includes work on the Financial Institutions Project at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and service as a LEGIS Fellow and staff member with the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs for Congressman Bill McCollum in the U.S. House of Representatives. Previously, Duncan was a Board member of the National Association of Business Economics and a Board member and Chairman of Strategies to Elevate People (STEP).

Duncan received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from Texas A&M University and his BS and MS in Agricultural Economics from North Dakota State University. He was also elected as a Trustee of North Dakota State University in 2022.

During the ceremony, Duncan will share his latest thoughts on the U.S. economic outlook, including:

  • Current challenges in macroeconomic forecasting;
  • Prospects for growth through the remainder of 2022 and 2023;
  • The status of inflation and the implications for monetary policy; and
  • Financial and housing market performance and risks

For more information and to register for the virtual portion of the Lawrence R. Klein Award on Wednesday, Oct. 12, from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern, visit wpcarey.asu.edu/alumni/klein-award.

Media note: Please consider adding this to your community calendar. Journalists who attend as members of the virtual audience can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event. 

About the W. P. Carey School of Business

The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from more than 100 countries and W. P. Carey is represented by alumni in over 160 countries. Visit wpcarey.asu.edu.

About Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
fanniemae.com | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog

About Haver Analytics

Haver Analytics is the premier provider of time-series data for the global strategy and research community. Haver Analytics maintains 200-plus databases from more than 1,350 government and private sources. Economic and financial database coverage includes the advanced economies and developing world with detail for the U.S., UK, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, China, and other emerging markets. Visit www.haver.com

For more information/media contact:
Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business
shay.moser@asu.edu

Matthew Classick, Fannie Mae
matthew_t_classick@fanniemae.com

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SOURCE W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University

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Disney remote jobs: the most magical WFH careers on earth?

Disney employs hundreds of thousands of employees at its theme parks and elsewhere, but the entertainment giant also offers opportunities for remote w…

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The Walt Disney Co. (DIS)  is a major entertainment and media company that operates amusement parks, produces movies and television shows, airs news and sports programs, and sells Mickey Mouse and Star Wars merchandise at its retail stores across the U.S.

While most of the jobs at the multinational entertainment conglomerate require working with people — such as at its theme parks, film-production facilities, cruise ships, or corporate offices — there are also opportunities for remote work at Disney. And while remote typically means working from home, with Disney, it could also mean working in a non-corporate office and being able to move from one location to another and conduct business outside normal working hours.

Related: Target remote jobs: What type of work and how much does it pay?

What remote jobs are available at Disney?

Many companies, including Disney, have called employees to return to the office for work in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the bulk of the company’s positions are forward-facing, meaning they involve meeting with clients and customers on a regular basis. 

Still, there are some jobs at the “most magical company on earth” that are listed as remote and don’t require frequent in-person interaction with people, including opportunities in data entry and sales.

While thousands work in forward-facing positions, such as greeting customers at Disney’s theme parks around the world, there are some positions with the Walt Disney Co. that allow work to be done remotely.

Orlando Sentinel/Getty Images

On Disney’s career website, there are limited positions available where the work is completely remote. One listing, for example, is for a “graphics interface coordinator covering sporting events.” This role involves working on nights, weekends, and holidays — times when corporate offices tend to be closed — and it may make sense for the company to hire people who can work from home or to travel and work in a location separate from the game venue.

Some of the senior roles that are shown on the website involve managers who can oversee remote teams, whether that be in sales or data. Sometimes, a supervisor overseeing staff who work outside corporate offices may be responsible for hiring freelancers who work remotely.

On the employment website Indeed, there are limited positions listed. A job listing for a manager in enterprise underwriting for a federal credit union indicates weekend duty, working outside of an 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. schedule, and being able to work in different locations. The listed annual salary range of $84,960 to $132,000, though, is well above the national annual average of around $50,000.

Internationally, Disney offers remote work in India, largely in the field of software development for its India-based streaming platform, Disney+ Hotstar.

The company also offers some hybrid schemes, which involve a mixture of in-office and remote work. For a mid-level animator position based in San Francisco, the role would involve being in the office and working from home occasionally.

How much do remote jobs at Disney pay?

Pay for remote jobs at Disney varies significantly based on location. A salary for a freelance artist in New York City, for example, may be higher than for the same job in Orlando, Florida. 

Disney lists actual salary ranges in some of its job postings. For example, the yearly pay for a California-based compensation manager who works with clients is $129,000 to $165,000.

In an online search for “remote jobs at Disney,” results range from $30 to $39 an hour, for data entry, or $28.50 to $38 an hour for social media customer support.

How can I apply for remote jobs at Disney?

You can look for remote jobs on Disney's career site, and type “remote” in the search field. Listings may also appear on career-data websites, including Indeed and Glassdoor.

How many employees does Disney have?

In 2023, Disney employed about 225,000 people globally, of which around 77% were full-time, 16% part-time, and 7% seasonal. The majority of the workers, around 167,000, were in the U.S.

Disney says that a significant number of its employees, including many of those who work at its theme parks, along with most writers, directors, actors, and production personnel, belong to unions. It’s not immediately known how many remote workers at the company, if any, are union members. 

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FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]” Credit:…

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“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

Credit: 2024 Kim et al.

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

BUFFALO, NY- March 20, 2024 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 5, entitled, “FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet.”

FoxO6, an identified factor, induces hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis during aging by activating hepatic lipoprotein secretion and lipogenesis leading to increased ApoC3 concentrations in the bloodstream. However, the intricate mechanisms underlying hepatic steatosis induced by elevated FoxO6 under hyperglycemic conditions remain intricate and require further elucidation.

In this new study, researchers Dae Hyun Kim, Seulah Lee, Sang Gyun Noh, Jaewon Lee, and Hae Young Chung from Pusan National University aimed to delineate the regulatory pathway involving ApoC3 controlled by FoxO6 and its resultant functional impacts.

“[…] we employed a spectrum of models including liver cell cultures, aged rats subjected to HFD, transgenic mice overexpressing FoxO6 (FoxO6-Tg), and FoxO6 knockout mice (FoxO6-KO).”

Their findings indicate that FoxO6 triggered ApoC3-driven lipid accumulation in the livers of aged rats on an HFD and in FoxO6-Tg, consequently leading to hepatic steatosis and hyperglycemia. Conversely, the absence of FoxO6 attenuated the expression of genes involved in lipogenesis, resulting in diminished hepatic lipid accumulation and mitigated hyperlipidemia in murine models. Additionally, the upregulation of FoxO6 due to elevated glucose levels led to increased ApoC3 expression, consequently instigating cellular triglyceride mediated lipid accumulation. The transcriptional activation of FoxO6 induced by both the HFD and high glucose levels resulted in hepatic steatosis by upregulating ApoC3 and genes associated with gluconeogenesis in aged rats and liver cell cultures.

“Our conclusions indicate that the upregulation of ApoC3 by FoxO6 promotes the development of hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hepatic steatosis in vivo, and in vitro. Taken together, our findings underscore the significance of FoxO6 in driving hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis specifically under hyperglycemic states by enhancing the expression of ApoC3 in aged rats.”
 

Read the full paper: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205610 

Corresponding Author: Hae Young Chung

Corresponding Email: hyjung@pusan.ac.kr 

Keywords: HFD-feeding, aging, forkhead transcription factor O6, ApoC3, lipid accumulation, hepatic steatosis

Click here to sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article.

 

About Aging:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Facebook
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  • LinkedIn
  • Reddit
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  • Spotify, and available wherever you listen to podcasts

 

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

 

Aging (Aging-US) Journal Office

6666 E. Quaker Str., Suite 1B

Orchard Park, NY 14127

Phone: 1-800-922-0957, option 1

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The Digest #194

Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons…

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Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger was first published in 2005 as a “coffee table” style book. It was beautifully presented but came with a high price tag. It was also heavy, somewhat unwieldy to read, and not very portable. The book’s format and price probably limited its reach. 

Stripe Press published a new edition of the book shortly after Mr. Munger died last year at the age of ninety-nine. Amazon and other vendors instantly sold all available inventory. After waiting for three months, I finally received my copy last week. 

Peter Kaufman is the editor of all editions of the book and I suspect that his main goal two decades ago was to honor Charlie Munger’s wisdom in a format that was not expected to “go viral.” In 2005, Charlie Munger was well known in the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder community and in the value investing world, but he was not as prominent as he became during his final decade. The clear purpose of the new edition is to disseminate his ideas as widely as possible. 

The new edition is abridged to reduce repetitive content and I will withhold judgment about the wisdom of this abridgment until I finish reading the book. Since the heart of the book is comprised of speeches given by Charlie Munger, there are definitely cases where the same ideas are presented again and again. 

Great books can be read many times while remaining highly relevant. I found this to be the case when I reread Charlie Munger’s Harvard School commencement address delivered in June 1986 when his youngest son was among the graduates. In the speech, Mr. Munger “inverts” the typical advice delivered in such speeches by explaining how the graduates should go about guaranteeing a life of failure and misery through time-tested strategies such as ingesting drugs and indulging in envy and resentment. 

I am not sure how many graduates were convinced by Charlie Munger on that early summer day, but I suspect that most of them remember the speech because it was so unconventional. In contrast, I have no recollection of the commencement addresses when I graduated from high school or college, or even who the speaker was.


Articles

A Memorial for Charlie Munger by John Harvey Taylor, March 12, 2024. This is a brief account of a recent memorial service for Charlie Munger at Harvard-Westlake School. “We learned Sunday that someone once asked if he knew how to play the piano. ‘I don’t know,’ he said. ‘I’ve never tried.’ Yet he tried and finished so much in his century. Imagine what he is making of eternity.” (Episcopal Diocese of Los Angeles)

Benjamin Graham: Big Moments on the Way to Big Earnings, March 2024. Ben Graham’s granddaughter reflects on the challenges Graham experienced when he applied for college. “Most graduating seniors make their college plans in advance, but Ben Graham had no money for tuition. All through the long days of arduous farm labor, my grandfather dreamed of winning a Pulitzer Scholarship.” (Beyond Ben Graham)

Graham’s “Unpopular Large Caps” Part 2: Thoughts on Diversification by John Huber, March 19, 2024. “I would segment these ideas into two groups: core operating investments and bargain assets. In the former, you want to be very selective in picking a relatively small number of companies you intend to own for the long term. In the latter, you’d want to think like the insurance underwriter, buying as many as you can to ensure that the law of large numbers is on your side.” (Base Hit Investing)

Warren Buffett Minds the GAAP by Donald E. Graham, March 13, 2024. “I have a challenge for the FASB and the SEC: If you believe today’s accounting rules present a clearer picture of Berkshire’s results, put it to a test. Ask Berkshire’s shareholders if they prefer the present method of reporting earnings over the status quo ante. I don’t believe a single informed shareholder would say so. The rule is confusing and uninformative.” (WSJ)

  • Berkshire Hathaway’s Distorted Quarterly Results, August 7, 2022. “Berkshire’s net income figure has been totally useless for analytical purposes since 2018. This is true on an annual basis and even more true on a quarterly basis.” (The Rational Walk)

Sir John Templeton: The Gentleman Bargain Hunter by Kingswell, March 12, 2024. “Templeton, who passed away in 2008, arrived on the investing scene with a series of uber-profitable contrarian bets in the early days of World War II — and continued to outwit Mr. Market with maddening consistency for the next several decades.” (Kingswell)

They Praised AI at SXSW—and the Audience Started Booing by Ted Gioia, March 19, 2024. Many recent innovations seem to have a dystopian aura. Apparently, this sentiment is not restricted to the usual luddites (old men shouting at clouds) but is shared by some of the attendees of SXSW. What seems cool to tech bros in Silicon Valley might not seem so cool to those outside tech culture. (The Honest Broker)

We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign, March 12, 2024. People tend to focus on the aggregate amount of inflation over the past few years and interpreted transitory to mean that price spikes would reverse. Of course, politicians and economists only meant that the rate of inflation would decrease, not that prices would ever return to pre-pandemic levels. (WSJ)

My 2023 Apple Report Card by John Gruber, March 18, 2024. A solid report card overall from a widely read technology blog. (Daring Fireball)


Podcasts

Christopher Bloomstran on Buffett, Berkshire, Munger, and China, March 19, 2024. 1 hour, 1 minute. Video. Also be sure to check out the latest Semper Augustus client letter which has a lengthy section on Berkshire Hathaway. (Value After Hours)

Renaissance Technologies, March 18, 2024. 3 hours, 10 minutes. Notes“Renaissance Technologies is the best performing investment firm of all time. And yet no one at RenTec would consider themselves an ‘investor’, at least in any traditional sense of the word. It’d rather be more accurate to call them scientists — scientists who’ve discovered a system of math, computers and artificial intelligence that has evolved into the greatest money making machine the world has ever seen.” (Acquired)

Intuitive Surgical: Robotic Precision, March 20, 2024. 1 hour, 6 minutes. Transcript“Intuitive creates robotic products to assist minimally invasive surgeries. Its Da Vinci system is a pioneer in this area as it increases the efficiency & accuracy of surgery and reduces the burden on the surgeons themselves.” (Business Breakdowns)

The Lessons of History (Will & Ariel Durant), March 18, 2023. 53 minutes. Notes“In every age men have been dishonest and governments have been corrupt.” (Founders)

A Classicist Believes that Homer Directly Dictated the Iliad, and Was Also an Excellent Horseman, March 14, 2024. 53 minutes. “The Iliad is the world’s greatest epic poem—heroic battle and divine fate set against the Trojan War. Its beauty and profound bleakness are intensely moving, but great questions remain: Where, how, and when was it composed and why does it endure?” (History Unplugged)


Triumph of Achilles

Triumph of Achilles by Franz von Matsch, 1892 (public domain)

Copyright, Disclosures, and Privacy Information

Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and all content is subject to the copyright and disclaimer policy of The Rational Walk LLC.  The Rational Walk is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.

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