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Every teacher grades differently, which isn’t fair

A scholar of grading explains how teachers can do a better job of reporting what grades represent, and what they are for.

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For many teachers, grading is an individualized effort – not one consistent with other teachers. andresr/E+ via Getty Images

Students and parents have begun suing school districts over grading policies and practices they say are unfair.

As a scholar of education who studies grading practices, I’ve seen how important grades are to schools, students and their families.

Grades are the primary basis for making important decisions about students. They determine whether students are promoted from one grade level to the next. They also determine honor roll status and enrollment in advanced or remedial classes, and they factor into special education services and college or university admissions.

More than 1,800 colleges and universities now allow applicants to choose whether they want to take the ACT or SAT. That means grades are more important in admissions decisions and scholarship awards – and students and their parents know it.

In early 2022, a local political figure and his wife sued Baltimore Public Schools, claiming the city’s entire education system was not serving the public. They said unfair grading practices limited students’ academic access.

Later that year, a parent in Kentucky sued the local school district, alleging unfair grading practices had tainted remote learning classes that had been established during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those cases are still pending, but even as far back as 2007, parents sued a West Virginia school district because their daughter got a lower grade than expected on a biology project she turned in late. The lawsuit argued that the bad grade was unfair and hurt the student’s grade-point average, valedictorian status, scholarship potential and chances of getting into a good college.

These lawsuits show how important grades are to students and their parents.

Teachers spend lots of time grading

Teachers know how important grades are, too. In fact, teachers spend over one-third of their professional work time assessing and evaluating student learning.

But most university teacher-education programs focus on curriculum and instruction, with less attention given to assessment. My research has found that these programs do not talk about how to actually grade student work.

In keeping with a long-held tradition in education, teachers also have, and like, the autonomy to set their own practices. That results in inconsistency, inequity and even unreliability in teachers’ grading practices.

For example, teachers decide if grades will be based on tests, quizzes, homework, participation, behavior, effort, extra credit or other evidence. When surveying over 15,000 teachers, administrators, support educators, parents and students, I found teachers use a wide range of evidence in grades. While they primarily use tests, quizzes, projects, and homework to assign grades, teachers at all grade levels also include nonacademic evidence, like behavior and effort, in their grading equations.

Teachers also decide whether students will get a second chance to take tests if they fail on the first attempt, or be allowed to turn in work late, sometimes reducing their maximum possible grade.

Once teachers decide what to include in their grades, they decide how much weight to assign to each grade category. One teacher may weigh homework as 20% of the final course grade, while another teacher in the same grade level may choose a different weight or not grade homework at all.

In my work, I have talked to teachers who curve grades, especially at the end of a course when they discover lots of students did poorly. To curve, these teachers adjust grades by adding points to all students’ scores to bring the highest score up to 100%. Other teachers in the same school told me they do not grade on a curve. Instead, they add extra credit points to students’ final course grades if they attend a school event, such as a play. Some teachers told me they also add grade points if a student was never tardy to class or never missed an assignment deadline.

Traditional grading is confusing and inaccurate

Schools do often have a common grade system all teachers must use, such as a scale from zero to 100. But my research has found that it’s very rare that all teachers in a district, or even a school or a grade level, use the same grading policies and procedures.

The variation among teachers’ grading policies and practices causes confusion for students and their parents. High school students, for instance, typically have seven different teachers each semester. That means they have to keep up with seven different grading policies and procedures – and cope with the obvious differences.

My research indicates that the effort to keep up with multiple teachers’ different grading expectations causes students chronic stress and anxiety, especially for those students with poor organizational, time-management and self-regulation skills. This is also the case for students competing for high grade-point averages and class rank. Still, students rarely question teachers’ grading or the grading differences between teachers.

It might seem unfair, for example, that one algebra teacher allows for extra credit to boost final course grades and another does not. But students have accepted these differences because this is how it’s always been. And parents often pass these grading differences off as what they experienced in school themselves.

Three ways to improve grading

Grading consistency and effectiveness could be improved if universities’ teacher-training programs included specific training on grading practices in their educator preparation programs, but not any training will do. Evidence-based research on grading conducted over the past century identifies ways grades can be effective, fair and accurate.

First, grades are accurate and meaningful when they are based on reliable and valid evidence from classroom assessments. This information allows teachers to provide students and parents with feedback on learning progress, and to guide teachers’ own efforts to improve their teaching. For instance, an assessment strategy called Mastery Learning has been shown to improve student achievement and deliver reliable evidence upon which teachers can base grades.

Second, grading works best when students, parents, teachers, administrators and others in the school are clear on the purpose of grades. These groups have different beliefs and expectations, but clarity in grades can be achieved when they agree on grading intentions to then anchor policies and practices.

Third, grade reports that include three to five categories of performance more meaningfully communicate students’ actual academic proficiency. Reducing a grade to a single letter or number that incorporates many aspects of learning, including behavior and effort, does not inform anyone as clearly about what a student has achieved, needs or is ready for.

Laura Link consults with school districts through GradingRx.

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Gold Prices Reflect A Shift In Paradigm, Part 2

Gold Prices Reflect A Shift In Paradigm, Part 2

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

In the first part of this report, we highlighted…

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March 20, 2023

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Gold Prices Reflect A Shift In Paradigm, Part 2

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

In the first part of this report, we highlighted that observed gold prices have significantly detached from our model-predicted prices. While this has happened in the past, prices always converged eventually. However, the delta between the observed and the model predicted price has now reached a record high of around $400/ozt. We thus ask ourselves whether it is reasonable to expect that model-predicted and observed prices will converge again in the future, or, whether we witness a shift in paradigm and the model no longer works. 

In our view, the only reason for gold prices to sustainably detach from the underlying variables in our gold price model is if central banks (particularly the Fed) lose control over the monetary environment. Thus, it seems that the gold market is now pricing in a significant risk that the Fed can’t get inflation back under control. As we highlighted in Part I of this report (Gold prices reflect a shift in paradigm – Part I, 15 March, 2023), this is happening in the most unlikely of all environments. The Fed has aggressively hiked rates at the fastest pace in over 50 years and it is signaling to the market that it will do whatever it takes to get inflation under control. So why is the gold market still concerned about inflation?

The issue is that so far, it has been easy for the Fed to raise rates sharply to combat inflation. Despite the sharp move in the Fed Funds rate, one may get the impression that nothing has happened yet that would jeopardize the Fed’s ability to raise rates even higher. For starters, the unemployment rate remains stubbornly low (see Exhibit 8). 

Exhibit 8: The US unemployment rate remains stubbornly low despite the sharp rate hikes

Source: FRED, Goldmoney Research

Equity and bond prices have sharply corrected in the early phases of the Fed’s rate hike cycle, but since then equity markets have partially recovered their losses. While equity prices are not the real economy, large downward corrections can impact the real economy nevertheless due to the wealth effect. When people become less wealthy, they spend less, which in turn has an effect on the economy. The impact of this reduction in wealth might also not be meaningful so far as the correction came from extremely inflated levels. The S&P 500, for example, has corrected almost 20% from its peak, but it is still 14% higher than the pre-pandemic highs in 2019 (see Exhibit 9).

Exhibit 9: Even though US equity prices have corrected sharply, they are still well above the pre-pandemic highs….

Source: S&P, Goldmoney Research

The real estate market has slowed down significantly, but so far prices haven’t crashed (see Exhibit 10), and even though there are a lot of early warning signs, the Fed historically had only become concerned when a crumbling housing market started to affect the banks. While we certainly saw turmoil in the banking sector over the last few days, it was not related to the mortgage business so far. 

Exhibit 10: …and home prices – despite the clear rollover – have not crashed yet

Source: S&P, Goldmoney Research

Hence, at first sight, it appears there is little reason for the gold market to price in a scenario where the Fed loses control over inflation. However, there are plenty of warning signs that things are about to change. In our view, the correction in the equity market is far from over. When the last two bubbles deflated, equities corrected a lot lower for longer (see Exhibit 11).

Exhibit 11: the last two bubbles saw much larger corrections in equity prices

Source: S&P, Goldmoney Research

This alone will start to put a strain on the disposable income of not just American consumers, but globally. We are seeing signs of this in all kinds of markets. For example, used car prices had skyrocketed until about a year ago on the back of supply chain issues combined with excess disposable income. But since the Fed started raising rates, used car prices have retreated somewhat (see Exhibit 12). Arguably this is good for people wanting to buy a car with cash, and it will also have a dampening effect on inflation numbers, but the reason for it is not that all the sudden a lot more cars are being produced, but that higher rates make it more expensive to finance cars, and thus demand is weakening. 

Exhibit 12: Manheim used car index

Source: Bloomberg, Goldmoney Research

Certain aspects of the housing market also show more signs of stress than the correction in real estate prices alone suggests. For example, lumber prices have completely crashed from their spectacular all-time highs and are now back to pre-pandemic levels (see Exhibit 13). 

Exhibit 13: Lumber prices have come back to earth

Source: Goldmoney Research

Similar to the development in the used car market, while this may be good for people trying to build a new home, it is indicative of the material slowdown in construction activity. This can be directly observed in housing data. New housing starts are 28% lower than in spring 2022 (See Exhibit 14). 

Exhibit 14: New Housing Start data shows a material slowdown in construction activity

Source: FRED, Goldmoney Research

Moreover, mortgage costs have exploded. A 10-year fixed mortgage went from 2.5% a year ago to 6.3% now (see Exhibit 15). This will undoubtedly dampen the appetite for home purchases and strain disposable income as previously fixed mortgages must be rolled over. Given current mortgage rates, it is surprising that the housing market has not yet corrected a lot more.

Exhibit 15: Mortgage rates have exploded over the past 12 months

Source: Bankrate.com, Goldmoney Research

There is a myriad of other indicators, from crashing freight rates (see Exhibit 16) to layoffs in the trucking and technology sector as well as languishing oil prices despite record outages and inventories, that indicate that the Feds (and increasingly other central banks) ultra-hawkish policy is impacting the real economy, both domestic and globally. 

Exhibit 16: Freight rates had skyrocketed in the aftermath of the Covid19 Pandemic but are now back to normal

Source: Goldmoney Research

The result will be a period of global economic contraction. The Fed may view this decline in inflation as confirmation that their policies are working to fight inflation, even though it will only reflect a crashing economy. Importantly, once the recession kicks in, we will soon see rising unemployment. Once unemployment starts rising, the Fed will have to slow down its rate hikes and eventually stop. However, the underlying cause of inflation – over 8 trillion in asset buying by the Fed – will only have reversed a tiny bit by that point. This means that once the fed will have to make a decision, to either fight unemployment or inflation. 

We believe that the most likely explanation for the recent rally in gold prices against the underlying drivers of our model is that the market is increasingly pricing in that the Fed, once it is forced to stop hiking, will lose control over inflation. Faced with the choices of years of high unemployment and a crumbling economy or persistent high inflation, the gold market thinks the Fed will opt for the latter. This would mark a true paradigm shift, and from that point on, gold prices may start to price in prolonged high inflation (and our model may not be able to capture this properly).

The crash of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) a few days ago has created significant turmoil in financial markets. While the Fed jumped in and announced a new lending program that effectively bailed out the bank, it also led to a sharp change in market expectations for the Fed. Before the bailout, Fed fund futures implied that the market expected several more Fed hikes this year, and only a gradual easing thereafter. One week later and the market is now pricing in that the Fed will only hike until May, and then pivot and start cutting rates (see Exhibit 17). 

Exhibit 17: The crash and subsequent bailout of SBV led to a sharp reassessment of the Fed’s ability to raise rates

Source: Goldmoney Research

The gold market is still pricing in a much more dire outlook with higher and persistent long-term inflation Only time will tell whether this view is correct. In our opinion, it is quite forward-looking, and gold seems to be the only market that is that forward-looking at the moment. 10-year implied inflation in TIPS, for example, is at a laughably low 2.2%. For the model-predicted prices to match observed gold prices, 10-year implied inflation would have to be around 1.5% higher, at 3.75%. This doesn’t seem to be completely unfeasible. However, even if the gold market turns out to be ultimately correct, it will take a while until the rest of the market agrees with that view, and most likely there will be a period of sharply declining realized inflation in the meantime. That said, as equities look even more fragile in this scenario, and bonds and cash are unpopular asset classes during periods of high inflation, gold may simply be the only game in town until its time as the ultimate inflation hedge is coming. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/20/2023 - 05:00

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Australian Banking Association’s cost of living inquiry reveals bank pressure

An analysis of the rising inflation and concurrent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank proved that more than 186 banks in the U.S. are at risk of a similar…

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March 20, 2023

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An analysis of the rising inflation and concurrent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank proved that more than 186 banks in the U.S. are at risk of a similar shutdown if depositors decide to withdraw all funds.

The trade association for the Australian banking industry — the Australian Banking Association (ABA) — launched a cost of living inquiry to closely study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain constraints, geopolitical tensions and more on Australians.

An analysis of the rising inflation and concurrent collapse of three major traditional banks — Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank — recently proved that more than 186 banks in the U.S. are at risk of a similar shutdown if depositors decide to withdraw all funds. The ABA’s inquiry aims to identify ways to ease the cost of living in Australia and the Government’s fiscal policy response.

Consumer price index, percentage change from corresponding quarter in previous year, December 2012 – December 2022. Source: ausbanking.org.au

ABA acknowledged that many Australians would struggle to adjust to a higher cost of living, while it may be easier for some, adding that:

“The ABA notes most customers will manage the higher cost of living and their mortgage commitments by changing their spending patterns, applying their accumulated savings to their higher repayments in anticipation of higher borrowing rates, or refinancing their mortgage.”

One of the most significant pressures for banks was when citizens rolled over from a fixed-rate mortgage to a variable rate. However, ABA urged customers to be proactive and ensure they are getting the best deal for their banking services.

Household savings ratio, December 2014 to December 2022. Source: ausbanking.org.au

Property rent across Australia has also witnessed a steady increase as markets normalized following the end of COVID-19 restrictions. Citizens experiencing financial difficulty can contact their banks and get help, including fees and charges waivers, emergency credit limit increases and deferral of scheduled loan repayments, to name a few.

Related: National Australia Bank makes first-ever cross-border stablecoin transaction

Alongside this attempt to cushion Australians against rising fiat inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Department of the Treasury have been holding private meetings with executives from Coinbase, with discussions revolving around the future of crypto regulation in Australia.

Cointelegraph confirmed from an RBA spokesperson that Coinbase met with the RBA’s payments policy and financial stability departments in mid-March “as part of the Bank’s ongoing liaison with industry.”

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Fed, central banks enhance ‘swap lines’ to combat banking crisis

Currency swap lines have been used during times of crisis in the past, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
…

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March 19, 2023

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Currency swap lines have been used during times of crisis in the past, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

The United States Federal Reserve has announced a coordinated effort with five other central banks aimed at keeping the U.S. dollar flowing amid a series of banking blowups in the U.S. and in Europe.

The March 19 announcement from the U.S. Fed comes only a few hours after Swiss-based bank Credit Suisse was bought out by UBS for nearly $2 billion as part of an emergency plan led by Swiss authorities to preserve the country's financial stability.

According to the Federal Reserve Board, a plan to shore up liquidity conditions will be carried out through “swap lines” — an agreement between two central banks to exchange currencies.

Swap lines previously served as an emergency-like action for the Federal Reserve in the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal Reserve-initiated swap lines are designed to improve liquidity in dollar funding markets during tough economic conditions.

"To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, the central banks currently offering U.S. dollar operations have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily," the Fed said in a statement.

The swap line network will include the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. It will start on March 20 and continue at least until April 30.

The move also comes amid a negative outlook for the U.S. banking system, with Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsing and the New York District of Financial Services (NYDFS) takeover of Signature Bank.

The Federal Reserve however made no direct reference to the recent banking crisis in its statement. Instead, it explained that they implemented the swap line agreement to strengthen the supply of credit to households and businesses:

“The network of swap lines among these central banks is a set of available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses.”

The latest announcement from the Fed has sparked a debate about whether the arrangement constitutes quantitative easing.

U.S. economist Danielle DiMartino Booth argued however that the arrangements are unrelated to quantitative easing or inflation and that it does not "loosen" financial conditions:

The Federal Reserve has been working to prevent an escalation of the banking crisis.

Related: Banking crisis: What does it mean for crypto?

Last week, the Federal Reserve set up a $25 billion funding program to ensure banks have sufficient liquidity to cover customer needs amid tough market conditions.

A recent analysis by several economists on the SVB collapse found that up to 186 U.S. banks are at risk of insolvency:

“Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk.”

Cointelegraph reached out to the Federal Reserve for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

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