Connect with us

Government

Europe and Tech Lift Risk Appetites

Europe and Tech Lift Risk Appetites

Published

on

Overview: The continued domination of the tech sector and Europe's tentative agreement is lifting equities and risk assets more generally today.  Australia and Hong Kong's 2.3%-2.5% rally led Asia Pacific markets.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is higher for a third session and above its 200-day moving average for the first time since February.  The Dax is turning positive on the year.  The S&P 500 did so yesterday, though nearly 2/3 (320 companies) remain lower on the year. The S&P 500 is set to gap higher and is likely to move into the old gap (February) between roughly 3260 and 3328.5.  The European peripheral yields are falling by a couple of basis points, and Italy's two-year yield is below zero for the first time in five months.  Core yields are little changed, as is the US 10-year benchmark (~61 bp).  The dollar is mostly lower, led by the Australian and Canadian dollar and the Scandis.  The euro, yen, and Swiss franc are hovering around little changed levels.  Most emerging market currencies are stronger, led by the liquid and accessible currencies, like Russia, South Africa, and Mexico.  The Chinese yuan, alongside the Singapore dollar, slipped lower.  Gold has made a new multiyear high near $1825, and crude oil is firm, with the September WTI contract near recent highs around $41.50.  A gap we have targeted extends toward $42.50.  

Asia Pacific

Japan's June CPI readings were largely in line with expectations.  Headline inflation was steady, rising by 0.1% over the past year.  However, the core rate, which excludes fresh food, ticked up to zero from minus 0.2%.  This is a touch stronger than expected. It is the first time in three months, the core rate is not below zero.  When fresh food and energy are excluded, June prices rose by 0.4%, the same as in May.  Phone services and durable goods prices rose.  It is not a gamechanger. Last week, the BOJ forecast inflation would fall by an average of 0.5% this fiscal year.  Energy prices stabilized.  Gasoline, for example, fell 12.2% year-over-year after falling nearly 16.5% in May.  

South Korea's trade figures for the first 20-days June were weaker than expected, and are seen as a cautionary bellwether for the region.  Exports fell by 12.8% year-over-year, after falling 10.9% in May.  It was partly distorted by the number of business days, and when adjusted accordingly, exports fell 7.1%.  Imports fell 13.7% after falling 11.2% in May.  Semiconductor chip exports were off 1.7%.  In June, they were flat.  The exports of computer peripherals rose by almost 57%. On the other hand, the import of semiconductor fabrication equipment rose more than 131% from a year ago after a 140% rise in June and a 168% increase in May as new investment takes place.   Of note, shipments to China fell by 0.8% year-over-year after increasing 9.5% in June.  Exports to the US, Europe, and Japan are still falling on a year-over-year basis, but the pace has slowed. 

The dollar is in a quarter of a yen range in the first half of today's 24-hour session below JPY107.40. It is the fourth session that the greenback is recording higher lower.  There are options for $1.1 bln that expire today between JPY107.30 and JPY107.35.  There is another set at JPY107.55 for nearly $450 mln.  The Australian dollar is moving higher for the third consecutive session and is trying to solidify a foothold above $0.7000.  The next immediate target is the post-crash high set last month, a little below $0.7065.  The intraday technicals are stretched in the European morning.  The PBOC's reference rate for the dollar of CNY6.9862 was a little weaker than the models suggested.  China's money market rates have fallen in recent days, and the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 2.91%, the lowest in a couple of weeks.   

Europe

Initially, Merkel and Macron proposed 500 bln euros in grants as the core of the Recovery Plan, and that apparently has been negotiated down to 390 bln and 360 bln in low-interest loans.  The rhetoric got brutal as Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, whose party has only half the seats in Parliament and hence in a vulnerable political position, was accused of blackmail.  European Council President Michel may have found a compromise with a handful of creditors, in part by granting nearly 53 bln euros in rebates (to Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Sweden).  Hungary appears to have secured a dilution of the "rule of law" conditionality, and the Article 7 procedures against it will be closed by the end of the year, according to reports. This may prove to be controversial for the European Parliament that also must approve the agreement.  Michel's compromise also includes some conditionality and a mechanism for qualified majority voting that dilutes the veto of the unanimity requirement. The newest proposal will be cast as more friendly for the creditor countries, it also injects more Europe into the Recovery Plan as well. Separately, EC is proposing to put a level on imports of goods from countries that have lower carbon emission standards than it does. 

The eurozone reported an 8 bln euro current account surplus for May.  In May 2019, its current account surplus was 23.3 bln euros.  In the first five months of 2020, the eurozone current account surplus has averaged 14.3 bln euros compared with 26.3 bln in the first five months of 2019.  Despite the falling external surplus, the euro is rising for the third consecutive month.  It is within striking distance (though probably not today) of the year's high a touch below $1.15.  The next target is last year's high set near $1.1570.  

The UK reported a June budget shortfall of GBP35.5 bln, which brings the deficit in the first three months of the new fiscal year to almost GBP128 bln.  That is a little more than double the deficit of the previous fiscal year.  The government is spending and cutting taxes by GBP190 bln to help cope with the pandemic.  A deficit of GBP370 is projected this fiscal year or around 19% of GDP.  Meanwhile, the Bank of England has purposefully not rejected a sub-zero base rate, and the yield curve is negative out seven years.  

The euro reached $1.1470 in Asia but has not been able to sustain the momentum.  There is an option for 650 mln euros at $1.15 that will be cut today.  It has found support near $1.1430 in the European morning—yesterday's low a hair above $1.1400.  A close below $1.1420 would be disappointing and would be the first close below the five-day moving average in nearly two weeks.  Note that an option for 1.3 bln euros at $1.1450 expires tomorrow.  Sterling rose above $1.27 for the first time in more than a month and briefly traded above its 200-day moving average (~$1.2705).  Here too, the early momentum could not be sustained, and sterling is consolidating in the European morning.  Initial support is seen near $1.2650.  After reaching almost GBP0.9140, a new high for July, the euro reversed course and settled below the pre-weekend low.  Follow-through selling today has seen the euro test GBP0.9000.  Last week's low was near GBP0.8945.  

America

The Trump Administration has two targets in mind with the sanctions and tariffs on China.  Of course, in the first instance, it wants China to change its behavior.  However, often overlooked is that it wants companies to change their behavior as well.  US Attorney General Barr was as explicit as any official has been:  Apple, Disney, and other companies are pawns of China.  Eleven more Chinese companies were put on the entity list for aiding human rights abuses.  Two of the companies claim to have previously supplied product for Apple and several popular clothing labels. It raises questions about the resilience of supply chains in China.  At the same time, last week,  Luxshare bought a couple of Wistron factories that assemble iPhones in China.  Apple now has a local partner.  Taiwanese companies appear to have a two-prong strategy to compete:  exit low margin-business and develop production facilities in India.

A Republican Senator from Louisana (Kennedy) has said he will support Shelton's controversial nomination to the Federal Reserve at the Senate Banking Committee today.  All 13 Republican Senators on the committee must approve her to take the vote to the entire Senate.  The other nominee Waller is considerably less controversial and will easily be approved. Separately, even though the Republicans have not entirely sorted out its fiscal stance, negotiations between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House leader Pelosi are set to get underway today.  There seem to be three key issues for Mnuchin: A payroll saving tax cut (strongly favored by the President), limiting the liability of businesses re-opening, and not a renewal of the $600 a week in federal unemployment assistance.   

Canada reports May retail sales today.  A sharp jump (~20%) is expected after a 26.4% plunge in May.  Canada will report June CPI figures tomorrow.  While the headline has been weak due to energy prices, among others, the underlying measures have held up considerably better.  Mexico reports May retail sales tomorrow.  A modest 3% rise is expected after tumbling 22.4% in April. 

The US dollar has pushed below the CAD1.35 support area, which also houses the 200-day moving average. It is testing the recent low near CAD1.3485 after posting an outside down day yesterday.  The June low would be the next obvious target, set near CAD1.3315.   The intraday technicals are stretched, suggesting that North American operators may have difficulty sustaining a significant range-extension now.  The greenback reversed lower against the Mexican peso yesterday as well.  Some follow-through selling has pushed it to around MXN22.3850 today (~MXN22.7650 was yesterday's high).  Support is seen near MXN22.25 and then MXN22.15.    






Disclaimer




Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Many CDC Blunders Exaggerated Severity Of COVID-19: Study

Many CDC Blunders Exaggerated Severity Of COVID-19: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers…

Published

on

Many CDC Blunders Exaggerated Severity Of COVID-19: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) made at least 25 statistical or numerical errors during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the overwhelming majority exaggerated the severity of the pandemic, according to a new study.

Researchers who have been tracking CDC errors compiled 25 instances where the agency offered demonstrably false information. For each instance, they analyzed whether the error exaggerated or downplayed the severity of COVID-19.

Of the 25 instances, 20 exaggerated the severity, the researchers reported in the study, which was published ahead of peer review on March 23.

The CDC has expressed significant concern about COVID-19 misinformation. In order for the CDC to be a credible source of information, they must improve the accuracy of the data they provide,” the authors wrote.

The CDC did not respond to a request for comment.

Most Errors Involved Children

Most of the errors were about COVID-19’s impact on children.

In mid-2021, for instance, the CDC claimed that 4 percent of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 were kids. The actual percentage was 0.04 percent. The CDC eventually corrected the misinformation, months after being alerted to the issue.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky falsely told a White House press briefing in October 2021 that there had been 745 COVID-19 deaths in children, but the actual number, based on CDC death certificate analysis, was 558.

Walensky and other CDC officials also falsely said in 2022 that COVID-19 was a top five cause of death for children, citing a study that gathered CDC data instead of looking at the data directly. The officials have not corrected the false claims.

Other errors include the CDC claiming in 2022 that pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations were “increasing again” when they’d actually peaked two weeks earlier; CDC officials in 2023 including deaths among infants younger than 6 months old when reporting COVID-19 deaths among children; and Walensky on Feb. 9, 2023, exaggerating the pediatric death toll before Congress.

“These errors suggest the CDC consistently exaggerates the impact of COVID-19 on children,” the authors of the study said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/24/2023 - 20:20

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

NIH awards researchers $7.5 million to create data support center for opioid use disorder and pain management research

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant…

Published

on

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Helping End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative.

Credit: Wake Forest University School of Medicine

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Helping End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative.

The NIH HEAL initiative, which launched in 2018, was created to find scientific solutions to stem the national opioid and pain public health crises. The funding is part of the HEAL Data 2 Action (HD2A) program, designed to use real-time data to guide actions and change processes toward reducing overdoses and improving opioid use disorder treatment and pain management.

With the support of the grant, researchers will create a data infrastructure support center to assist HD2A innovation projects at other institutions across the country. These innovation projects are designed to address gaps in four areas—prevention, harm reduction, treatment of opioid use disorder and recovery support.

“Our center’s goal is to remove barriers so that solutions can be more streamlined and rapidly distributed,” said Meredith C.B. Adams, M.D., associate professor of anesthesiology, biomedical informatics, physiology and pharmacology, and public health sciences at Wake Forest University School of Medicine.

By monitoring opioid overdoses in real time, researchers will be able to identify trends and gaps in resources in local communities where services are most needed.

“We will collect and analyze data that will inform prevention and treatment services,” Adams said. “We’re shifting chronic pain and opioid care in communities to quickly offer solutions.”

The center will also develop data related resources, education and training related to substance use, pain management and the reduction of opioid overdoses.

According to the CDC, there was a 29% increase in drug overdose deaths in the U.S.  in 2020, and nearly 75% of those deaths involved an opioid.

“Given the scope of the opioid crises, which was only exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s imperative that we improve and create new prevention strategies,” Adams said. “The funding will create the infrastructure for rapid intervention.”


Read More

Continue Reading

International

How They Convinced Trump To Lock Down

How They Convinced Trump To Lock Down

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via Brownstone Institute,

An enduring mystery for three years is how…

Published

on

How They Convinced Trump To Lock Down

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via Brownstone Institute,

An enduring mystery for three years is how Donald Trump came to be the president who shut down American society for what turned out to be a manageable respiratory virus, setting off an unspeakable crisis with waves of destructive fallout that continue to this day. 

Let’s review the timeline and offer some well-founded speculations about what happened. 

On March 9, 2020, Trump was still of the opinion that the virus could be handled by normal means. 

Two days later, he changed his tune. He was ready to use the full power of the federal government in a war on the virus. 

What changed? Deborah Birx reports in her book that Trump had a friend die in a New York hospital and this is what shifted his opinion. Jared Kushner reports that he simply listened to reason. Mike Pence says he was persuaded that his staff would respect him more. No question (and based on all existing reports) that he found himself surrounded by “trusted advisors” amounting to about 5 or so people (including Mike Pence and Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb)

It was only a week later when Trump issued the edict to close all “indoor and outdoor venues where people congregate,” initiating the biggest regime change in US history that flew in the face of all rights and liberties Americans had previously taken for granted. It was the ultimate in political triangulation: as John F. Kennedy cut taxes, Nixon opened China, and Clinton reformed welfare, Trump shut down the economy he promised to revive. This action confounded critics on all sides. 

A month later, Trump said his decision to have “turned off” the economy saved millions of lives, later even claiming to have saved billions. He has yet to admit error. 

Even as late as June 23rd of that year, Trump was demanding credit for having followed all of Fauci’s recommendations. Why do they love him and hate me, he wanted to know. 

Something about this story has never really added up. How could one person have been so persuaded by a handful of others such as Fauci, Birx, Pence, and Kushner and his friends? He surely had other sources of information – some other scenario or intelligence – that fed into his disastrous decision. 

In one version of events, his advisors simply pointed to the supposed success of Xi Jinping in enacting lockdowns in Wuhan, which the World Health Organization claimed had stopped infections and brought the virus under control. Perhaps his advisors flattered Trump with the observation that he is at least as great as the president of China so he should be bold and enact the same policies here. 

One problem with this scenario is timing. The Oval Office meetings that preceded his March 16, 2020, edict took place the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Friday and Saturday. It was already clear by the 11th that Trump was ready for lockdowns. This was the same day as Fauci’s deliberately misleading testimony to the House Oversight Committee in which he rattled the room with predictions of Hollywood-style carnage. 

On the 12th, Trump shut all travel from Europe, the UK, and Australia, causing huge human pile-ups at international airports. On the 13th, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document that transferred control of pandemic policy from the CDC to the National Security Council and eventually the Department of Homeland Security. By the time that Trump met with Fauci and Birx in that legendary weekend, the country was already under quasi-martial law. 

Isolating the date in the trajectory here, it is apparent that whatever happened to change Trump occurred on March 10, 2020, the day after his Tweet saying there should be no shutdowns and one day before Fauci’s testimony. 

That something very likely revolves around the most substantial discovery we’ve made in three years of investigations. It was Debbie Lerman who first cracked the code: Covid policy was forged not by the public-health bureaucracies but by the national-security sector of the administrative state. She has further explained that this occurred because of two critical features of the response: 1) the belief that this virus came from a lab leak, and 2) the vaccine was the biosecurity countermeasure pushed by the same people as the fix. 

Knowing this, we gain greater insight into 1) why Trump changed his mind, 2) why he has never explained this momentous decision and otherwise completely avoids the topic, and 3) why it has been so unbearably difficult to find out any information about these mysterious few days other than the pablum served up in books designed to earn royalties for authors like Birx, Pence, and Kushner. 

Based on a number of second-hand reports, all available clues we have assembled, and the context of the times, the following scenario seems most likely. On March 10, and in response to Trump’s dismissive tweet the day before, some trusted sources within and around the National Security Council (Matthew Pottinger and Michael Callahan, for example), and probably involving some from military command and others, came to Trump to let him know a highly classified secret. 

Imagine a scene from Get Smart with the Cone of Silence, for example. These are the events in the life of statecraft that infuse powerful people with a sense of their personal awesomeness. The fate of all of society rests on their shoulders and the decisions they make at this point. Of course they are sworn to intense secrecy following the great reveal. 

The revelation was that the virus was not a textbook virus but something far more threatening and terrible. It came from a research lab in Wuhan. It might in fact be a bioweapon. This is why Xi had to do extreme things to protect his people. The US should do the same, they said, and there is a fix available too and it is being carefully guarded by the military. 

It seems that the virus had already been mapped in order to make a vaccine to protect the population. Thanks to 20 years of research on mRNA platforms, they told him,  this vaccine can be rolled out in months, not years. That means that Trump can lock down and distribute vaccines to save everyone from the China virus, all in time for the election. Doing this would not only assure his reelection but guarantee that he would go down in history as one of the greatest US presidents of all time. 

This meeting might only have lasted an hour or two – and might have included a parade of people with the highest-level security clearances – but it was enough to convince Trump. After all, he had battled China for two previous years, imposing tariffs and making all sorts of threats. It was easy to believe at that point that China might have initiated biological warfare as retaliation. That’s why he made the decision to use all the power of the presidency to push a lockdown under emergency rule. 

To be sure, the Constitution does not allow him to override the discretion of the states but with the weight of the office complete with enough funding and persuasion, he could make it happen. And thus did he make the fateful decision that not only wrecked his presidency but the country too, imposing harms that will last a generation. 

It only took a few weeks for Trump to become suspicious about what happened. For weeks and months, he toggled between believing that he was tricked and believing that he did the right thing. He had already approved another 30 days of lockdowns and even inveighed against Georgia and later Florida for opening. He went so far as to claim that no state could open without his approval. 

He did not fully change his mind until August, when Scott Atlas revealed the whole con to him. 

There is another fascinating feature to this entirely plausible scenario. Even as Trump’s advisors were telling him that this could be a bioweapon leaked from the lab in China, we had Anthony Fauci and his cronies going to great lengths to deny it was a lab leak (even if they believed that it was). This created an interesting situation. The NIH and those surrounding Fauci were publicly insisting that the virus was of zoonotic origin, even as Trump’s circle was telling the president that it should be regarded as a bioweapon. 

Fauci belonged to both camps, which suggests that Trump very likely knew of Fauci’s deception all along: the “noble lie” to protect the public from knowing the truth. Trump had to be fine with that. 

Gradually following the lockdown edicts and the takeover by the Department of Homeland Security, in cooperation with a very hostile CDC, Trump lost power and influence over his own government, which is why his later Tweets urging a reopening fell on deaf ears. To top it off, the vaccine failed to arrive in time for the election. This is because Fauci himself delayed the rollout until after the election, claiming that the trials were not racially diverse enough. Thus Trump’s gambit completely failed, despite all the promises of those around him that it was a guaranteed way to win reelection.

To be sure, this scenario cannot be proven because the entire event – certainly the most dramatic political move in at least a generation and one with unspeakable costs for the country – remains cloaked in secrecy. Not even Senator Rand Paul can get the information he needs because it remains classified. If anyone thinks the Biden approval of releasing documents will show what we need, that person is naive. Still, the above scenario fits all available facts and it is confirmed by second-hand reports from inside the White House. 

It’s enough for a great movie or a play of Shakespearean levels of tragedy. And to this day, none of the main players are speaking openly about it. 

Jeffrey A. Tucker is Founder and President of the Brownstone Institute. He is also Senior Economics Columnist for Epoch Times, author of 10 books, including Liberty or Lockdown, and thousands of articles in the scholarly and popular press. He speaks widely on topics of economics, technology, social philosophy, and culture.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/24/2023 - 17:40

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending