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Eurodollar Futures Curve Update (spoiler: still inverted)

I guess I took my own advice a little too literally. I did write that when the eurodollar futures curve first inverted, it was going to be dull. Didn’t start out that way, of course, with a small bit of theatrics right during that front week in December..

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I guess I took my own advice a little too literally. I did write that when the eurodollar futures curve first inverted, it was going to be dull. Didn’t start out that way, of course, with a small bit of theatrics right during that front week in December when the inversion first showed up. Ever since then, it has stuck to what I had said on Day 2 about what you should expect, or not to:

For the time being, our focus for now remains on the twisting. And we shouldn’t expect much more out of it. At least, for now.

Though this was truly a Big One, a serious signal right up in the top tier of monetary and financial warning signs, it still goes on the backburner in this first stage. I hadn’t realized, however, that while I’ve kept it in the corner of me eye for myself, I haven’t updated it here in over a month.

Sorry about that (since more than a few have asked, and prices on these things can be somewhat difficult to find, I’ll leave a couple links at the bottom where everyone can go so that you don’t have to depend on me for them).

So, where are we with the curve? Pretty much in the same shape, if a different level of nominal prices. When it comes to the twisting, it’s been just as I wrote up top and initially; we didn’t expect a whole lot and not a whole lot happened.



This doesn’t mean nothing has happened to the curve. On the contrary, it went a tiny bit un-inverted yet still kinked/flat through the latter half of December, varying somewhat in its flat-ness over those weeks.

Perhaps most important of all, the curve’s changes you see above during the first two weeks of January fully corroborate everything I’ve written recently about the rest of the “bond market”, Treasury curve, in particular, about how to interpret this BOND ROUT!!!!

It’s all about the Fed rather than improving growth even inflation prospects.

The market here, like the front end of the Treasury curve, is being pushed up because Jay Powell’s hawks have surmounted any remaining omicron doubts. It’s clear sailing into rate hikes; at least the first few of them. Thus, the eurodollar curve has in its entirety moved up (shown above).

If this was improving economic potential or inflation, then the flatness would have gone away at the same time the curve pushed upward nominally. Instead, just like the Treasury curve, those rate hikes are colliding with the same Taper Rejection skepticism and therefore, this week, the kink in the eurodollar curve went back fully inverted again!

It’s not much, just half a bip in the same contract space around the December 2024’s, yet, the important part is as I wrote from the very beginning:

While this is a major milestone in the monetary system’s decidedly anti-inflation/growth journey, it is hardly the end point of it. On the contrary, though it takes a lot of negative, deflationary potential to distort the curve in this way, we need to see if the market sticks with that potential rather than just some flashing rush of otherwise fleeting concern.

Some modest twists and turns during the last month, and the same curve skepticism first raised back when everyone thought omicron was the big worry remain even though omicron today is an almost totally faded influence.

The kink/inversion has indeed stuck; as I had pointed out from Day 1, this isn’t about the pandemic.

Growth scare and Taper Rejection.

The FOMC says consumers are normalizing to high CPI rates and the unemployment rate pictures a very tight labor market bringing with wage therefore inflation potential. These justify, in the official view, tapering and rate hikes which the market fully agrees the FOMC will get to carry out. No COVID to stop Jay’s minions.

Given this, despite this, he undefeated bond market then totally disagrees with the pure assumptions, the macro astrology being employed to drive those Fed changes. For one, there is no evidence “expectations” play any role in what is always a monetary phenomenon – and traders in Treasuries like eurodollar futures are the actual money, so they’d know – and despite the contention the labor market is tight we’ve seen a faulty unemployment rate mislead Jay Powell already and not very long ago.

It’s the height of predictability on all counts. 

On top of those doubts, there’s others starting with growing deflationary potential inside the monetary system (TIC, collateral, BIS, etc.) raising the probability something goes wrong with it and spoils whatever growth potential actually exists. Then there’s China in the real economy along with the rest of the global system which did not at any point look like the US goods economy.

And now a whole bunch of data showing, yes, transitory “inflation” and the very real potential for a slowdown maybe downturn or worse.

The small eurodollar inversion doesn’t tell us when or what, certainly not at this stage. What the kinked curve does indicate is simply how these negative potentials I just listed are very real, very serious, and are too probable to become a big problem at some point in the not-too-distant future (as I warned before, you don’t take the eurodollar curve literally) that it requires drastic measures like those it takes to upset and so distort this thing.




So long as the inversion or just the kink in the curve is limited to the small depths we’ve seen since it first began back in late October (when the flattening first become obvious), there’s nothing imminent to worry about; it’s all just non-specific downside probabilities. The current problem is how they are far greater than anyone in the mainstream, at the Fed, or shouting about inflation would admit.

The next thing we will be watching is for any additional curve twisting beyond just a half bp or even a few bps of inversion. Until then, it’s useful enough to validate our thesis about what’s going on in the rest of the global bond market (front = Fed, not growth nor inflation only deeper whiffs of Conundrum No5). Other than that, I still don’t anticipate it to be anything but boring for the next little while.


Eurodollar Futures Price Data:

If you’re looking for the current intraday prices, and don’t mind them being 10 minutes behind, the CME where these contracts trades displays near-real time price and contract data for all those in the colors (they don’t break them down by color, but that’s easy enough).

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/eurodollar.html


Should you want/need historical data, you can use Bloomberg or some other data provider. These are available at sites like Barchart.com, where you have to look up each contract individually (it’s not hard to find all of them on the whole curve; just use the search function). Here’s the link for the current front month (for the whites, anyway):

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GEh22/price-history/historical

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Economics

Peppercomm Named Public Relations Agency of Record for AgriFORCE

Peppercomm Named Public Relations Agency of Record for AgriFORCE
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022

AgTech innovator taps integrated communications and marketing agency to drive global growth and brand awareness
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire…

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Peppercomm Named Public Relations Agency of Record for AgriFORCE

PR Newswire

AgTech innovator taps integrated communications and marketing agency to drive global growth and brand awareness

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Peppercomm, award-winning, strategic and integrated communications and marketing agency, today announced it has been named global PR agency of record for AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ: AGRI; AGRIW), an AgTech company dedicated to advancing sustainable cultivation and crop processing to yield more nutritious food with limited environmental impact. AgriFORCE selected Peppercomm following a competitive evaluation of several firms.

Headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, AgriFORCE is poised to disrupt the agriculture industry by building a portfolio of proprietary AgTech solutions to help growers achieve higher quality and more sustainably produced crops, alongside branded products and ingredients that unlock superior nutrition for consumers. With an agreement to acquire Delphy Group BV and a binding LOI to acquire Deroose Plants NV recently announced, the company's strategic and holistic approach aims to address key challenges facing the agriculture industry.

"We're pleased to work with a company that can have a real impact on our food and our planet," said Steve Cody, CEO of Peppercomm. "The global pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine have significantly affected the food supply chain and accelerated the need for solutions to address these extraordinary challenges. AgriFORCE's IP and expertise are coming to the marketplace at just the right time."

Peppercomm will help AgriFORCE build global brand awareness through an integrated approach that includes strategic counsel, messaging development, thought leadership, earned media and social media, and digital advertising. 

"AgriFORCE is excited to partner with Peppercomm as our agency of record," shared Mauro Pennella, President of AgriFORCE Brands and CMO of AgriFORCE Growing Systems. "Peppercomm has strong experience across agriculture, agtech, and consumer brands, including public companies with multinational operations. We are confident that their tight-knit and senior team, with existing industry and media relationships, can bring to life the vision and purpose of AgriFORCE in the months ahead."

About Peppercomm
Peppercomm is an award-winning strategic, integrated communications and marketing agency headquartered in New York City with offices in San Francisco and London. The firm, which was recently acquired by Ruder Finn, combines 27 award-winning years of expertise serving blue chip and breakout clients with forward-thinking new service offerings and the freshness of a start-up. This unique mix of experience and energy enables the firm to attract and empower teams with a creative edge, drive, and passion for promoting, protecting, and connecting clients in a fast-changing marketplace. Founded in 1995, Peppercomm has received numerous accolades, including Crain's Best Places to Work in NYC 2021, PRWeek's Best Places to Work 2020, the Agency Elite 100, SABRE Award (Integrated Campaign), PRSA Big Apple (2020, 2019 Winner Integrated Campaign), Platinum PR Awards (Media Relations), PRNews Digital Awards (CSR), the Bulldog PR Awards (Media Relations) and PR Daily's Top Agencies of 2022 among others. For more information visit peppercomm.com.

About AgriFORCE
AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ: AGRI; AGRIW) is an AgTech company focused on the development and acquisition of crop production know-how and intellectual property augmented by advanced AgTech facilities and solutions. Looking to serve the global market, the Company's current focus is on North America, Europe, and Asia. The AgriFORCE vision is to be a leader in delivering plant-based foods and products through advanced and sustainable AgTech solution platforms that make positive change in the world—from seed to table. The AgriFORCE goal: Clean. Green. Better. Additional information about AgriFORCE is available at: agriforcegs.com.

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NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY CAN’T AFFORD THEIR FORMER LIFESTYLE; THREE-FOURTHS ARE SHIFTING GROCERY PURCHASING BEHAVIORS, FINDS NCSOLUTIONS

NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY CAN’T AFFORD THEIR FORMER LIFESTYLE; THREE-FOURTHS ARE SHIFTING GROCERY PURCHASING BEHAVIORS, FINDS NCSOLUTIONS
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022

66% of consumers are more mindful of spending on groceries85% of …

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NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY CAN'T AFFORD THEIR FORMER LIFESTYLE; THREE-FOURTHS ARE SHIFTING GROCERY PURCHASING BEHAVIORS, FINDS NCSOLUTIONS

PR Newswire

  • 66% of consumers are more mindful of spending on groceries
  • 85% of Americans are concerned or very concerned about inflation
  • 58%  believe the cost of living will be more expensive in the coming year
  • 46% of consumers say they're buying fewer non-essentials
  • 43% seek out sales and promotions to afford their favorite brands 

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Nearly half of Americans (45%) feel like they can't afford their previous lifestyle and 76% of American consumers say their family has changed how they buy food with prices on the rise. In addition, two-thirds (66%) are more mindful of how they are spending their money. These findings are part of a new consumer sentiment survey on inflation commissioned by NCSolutions (NCS), the leading company for improving advertising effectiveness.

Eighty-five percent of Americans are very concerned or extremely concerned about inflation and almost unanimously (93%) they said we're in an inflationary time. On the same economic theme, over half (57%) are concerned about the country's financial situation, while 47% say they're concerned about their family's financial situation. Eight out of 10 or 83% of Americans expect the cost of living will become somewhat more or much more expensive in the coming year. Sixty-five percent of Americans agree with the statement 'my income has not increased as fast at the cost of food, beverage and personal care products.'

"For the second time in a little over two years, consumers are pivoting to new purchasing behaviors at the grocery store," commented Alan Miles, CEO, NCSolutions. "Since the start of the pandemic, they've been swapping their favorite brands for what's available. Today, though, value is the centerpiece more often than availability, consumers are selecting brands and products to stretch their budgets as far as possible. CPG brands that meet customers where they are both in this inflationary moment and as prices ease have the best shot at keeping them for the long-term."

SIX YEARS OF PRICE TRENDS
NCSolutions' proprietary purchase data, which reflects the buying trends of consumers for CPG products, shows an almost 13% price increase on average. In a six-year price trend analysis, we see that price increases in 2022 are pacing at an accelerated rate compared to other years.  The survey findings bear this out with 58% of consumers believing the cost of living will be much more expensive in the coming year and 71% feeling the U.S. economy is declining. 

Six-year Inflation Trend

 

Percentage Inflation Change Year-Over-Year

On a consumer packaged goods category level, there are wide variations in percentage increases.

CONSUMERS REACT TO THE PINCH
Compared to one year ago, six in 10 Americans believe CPG product packaging has gotten smaller but costs the same. Consumers still feel the strain of supply chain issues as 69% say there are fewer items of the same product on the shelves. Thirty-six percent of Americans said there is less variety of  brands available on the shelf today compared with one year ago.

Over half (53%) of American consumers say they find basic food staples more expensive; 40% believe a recession will occur in 2023. For almost half of consumers (46%), this means buying fewer non-essential items on the food aisle, or for 43%, it means buying only the essentials.  Seventy-one percent of Americans say the increased price of groceries is straining their savings. For other American consumers, increased prices on the grocery aisle mean seeking out less expensive brands (45%).  Other ways consumers are coping with the increased price of groceries are loading up the pantry (27%) or freezer (26%) or shopping closer to home (24%).

When it comes to consumers' preferred brands, they have to make tough choices. Sixty percent of consumers seek less expensive alternatives when their favorite brands reach a price beyond their budget. Forty-six percent of consumers plan to go without their favorite brands, and 43% of consumers look for sales to offset the cost. In the survey, respondents could select multiple ways they react.

June 2021 vs. June 2022: Inflation Increases by category

"Though it may be tempting to pull back on advertising, a more effective strategy is to recognize and respond to consumer 'stress-flation.' Brands have an opportunity now to build loyalty and attract new customers with empathetic marketing," said Leslie Wood, Chief Research Officer, NCSolutions. "We're heading into a period of heavy CPG purchasing moments, such as back to school and the approaching holidays. Compelling, well-targeted advertising is a proven strategy for increasing brand equity and sales both in the short- and long-term."

CONSUMER PRIORITIES
Respondents were asked, "When shopping for groceries, which products are most important." The majority ranked:

  1. Affordable products that provide a clear value for my money 
  2. Finding food products that feed their families for several meals
  3. Products they know their families will enjoy eating

ABOUT THE CONSUMER SURVEY: The online survey of 2,141 respondents was fielded from June 17- 20, 2022.  Responses presented in this survey were weighted by location, education, income and other demographics to be representative of the overall population. To read more about the findings, you can download the full report

ABOUT NCS
NCSolutions makes advertising work better. Our unrivaled data resources powered by leading providers combine with scientific rigor and leading-edge technology to empower the CPG ecosystem to create and deliver more effective advertising. With NCS's proven approach, brands achieve continuous optimization everywhere ads appear through purchase-based audience targeting and sales measurement solutions that have impacted billions in media spend for our customers. NCS is a joint venture company with  Nielsen as the majority owner. 

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SOURCE NCSolutions

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Economics

Legal Services Sourcing and Procurement Market by 2025| COVID-19 Impact & Recovery Analysis | SpendEdge

Legal Services Sourcing and Procurement Market by 2025| COVID-19 Impact & Recovery Analysis | SpendEdge
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The “Legal Services Market” report has been added to SpendEdge’s…

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Legal Services Sourcing and Procurement Market by 2025| COVID-19 Impact & Recovery Analysis | SpendEdge

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Legal Services Market" report has been added to SpendEdge's library which is trusted by more than 100 CPOs and 500 category managers who use our insights daily.

The Legal Services market is poised to grow by USD 187.38 Billion, progressing at a CAGR of almost 3.64% during the forecast period

https://spendedge.com/sample-report/process-instrumentation-sourcing-and-procurement-intelligence-report

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Fetch actionable market insights on the post-COVID-19 impact on each product and service segment.

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This Legal Services procurement intelligence report has enlisted the top suppliers and their cost structures, SLA terms, best selection criteria, and negotiation strategies.

  • Latham and Watkins
  • Allen and Overy
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Fetch actionable market insights on the post-COVID-19 impact on each product and service segment:

https://spendedge.com/sample-report/process-instrumentation-sourcing-and-procurement-intelligence-report

Top Selling Report:

  1. Asset Recovery Services - Forecast and AnalysisThe asset recovery services will grow at a CAGR of 9.49% during 2021-2025. Asia Asset Recovery Pte Ltd., TES-Amm Singapore Pte Ltd., and Iron Mountain Inc. are among the prominent suppliers in the asset recovery services market. Click the above link to download the free sample of this report.
  2. Vulnerability Management Sourcing and Procurement ReportVulnerability Management Procurement Market, prices will increase by 4%-6% during the forecast period and suppliers will have moderate bargaining power in this market. Click the above link to download the free sample of this report.
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To access the definite purchasing guide on the Legal Services that answers all your key questions on price trends and analysis:

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Table of Content

  • Executive Summary
  • Market Insights
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  • Best Practices
  • Category Ecosystem
  • Category Management Strategy
  • Category Management Enablers
  • Suppliers Selection
  • Suppliers under Coverage
  • US Market Insights
  • Category scope
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About SpendEdge:

SpendEdge shares your passion for driving sourcing and procurement excellence. We are the preferred procurement market intelligence partner for 120+ Fortune 500 firms and other leading companies across numerous industries. Our strength lies in delivering robust, real-time procurement market intelligence reports and solutions.

Contacts:

SpendEdge
Anirban Choudhury
Marketing Manager
Ph No:
+1 (872) 206-9340
https://www.spendedge.com/contact-us

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