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EUR/USD Declines as Risk Aversion Grips Market

EUR/USD declined today, erasing yesterday’s gains. Market analysts explained the decline by risk aversion caused by the spread of the COVID-19…

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EUR/USD declined today, erasing yesterday’s gains. Market analysts explained the decline by risk aversion caused by the spread of the COVID-19 across Europe as well as rising political tensions between China and the European Union as well as other Western powers.

US current account logged a deficit of $188.5 billion in Q4 2020, up from $180.9 billion in Q3. The actual value was in line with analysts’ forecasts. (Event A on the chart.)

Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose from 14 in February to 17 in March. The consensus forecast had promised just a marginal increase to 15. (Event B on the chart.)

New home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 775k in February, missing the consensus forecast of 872k. The previous month’s figure got a positive revision from 923k to 948k. (Event B on the chart.)

Yesterday, a report on existing home sales was released, showing that they were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.22 million in February, down from the previous month’s revised level of 6.66 million (6.69 million before the revision). The market consensus had promised a better reading of 6.55 million. (Not shown on the chart.)

If you have any comments on the recent EUR/USD action, please reply using the form below.

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Sex work is real work: Global COVID-19 recovery needs to include sex workers

Societally, we need to recognize that sex workers have agency and deserve the same respect, dignity and aid as any other person selling their labour.

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Globally, sex workers have been left to fend for themselves during the pandemic with little to no support from the government. (AP Photo/Bikas Das)

During the pandemic, business shifted from in person to work-from-home, which quickly became the new normal. However, it left many workers high and dry, especially those with less “socially acceptable” occupations.

The pandemic has adversely impacted sex workers globally and substantially increased the precariousness of their profession. And public health measures put in place made it almost impossible for sex workers to provide any in-person service.

Although many people depend on sex work for survival, its criminalization and policing stigmatizes sex workers.

Research shows that globally, sex workers have been left behind and in most cases excluded from government economic support initiatives and social policies. There needs to be an intersectional approach to global COVID-19 recovery that considers everyone’s lived realities. We propose policy recommendations that treat sex work as decent work and that centre around the lived experiences and rights of those in the profession.

Sex work and the pandemic

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) recently reported that apart from income-loss, the pandemic has increased pre-existing inequalities for sex workers.

In a survey conducted in Eastern and Southern Africa, the UNFPA found that during the pandemic, 49 per cent of sex workers experienced police violence (including sexual violence) while 36 per cent reported arbitrary arrests. The same survey reported that more than 50 per cent of respondents experienced food and housing crises.

Lockdowns and border closures adversely impacted Thailand’s tourism industry which relies partially on the labour of sex workers.


Read more: Sex workers are criminalized and left without government support during the coronavirus pandemic


In the Asia Pacific, sex workers reported having limited access to contraceptives and lubricants along with reduced access to harm reduction resources. Lockdowns also disrupted STI or HIV testing services, limiting sex workers’ access to necessary healthcare.

In North America, sex workers have been excluded from the government’s recovery response. And many began offering online services to sustain themselves.

A woman stands backlit next to a dimly lit bus that reads 'Thailand' with green lighting.
Sex workers stand in a largely shut-down red light area in Bangkok, Thailand on March 26, 2020. (AP Photo/Gemunu Amarasinghe)

Government vs. community response

Globally, sex workers have been left to fend for themselves during the pandemic with little to no support from the government. But communities themselves have been rallying.

Elene Lam, founder of Butterfly, an Asian migrant sex organization in Canada, talks about the resilience of sex wokers during the pandemic.

She says organizations like the Canadian Alliance for Sex Work Law Reform are working in collaboration with Amnesty International to mobilize income support and resources to help sex workers in Canada.

Organizations in the United Kingdom, Germany, India and Spain have also set up emergency support funds. And some sex worker organizations have developed community-specific resources for providing services both in person and online during the pandemic.

Global recovery needs to include sex workers

The International Labour Organization’s “Decent Work Agenda” emphasizes productive employment and decent working conditions as being the driving force behind poverty reduction.

Sociologist Cecilia Benoit explains that sex work often becomes a “livelihood strategy” in the face of income and employment instability. She says that like other personal service workers, sex workers also should be able to practice without any interference or violence.

In order to have an inclusive COVID-19 recovery for all, governments need to work to extend social guarantees to sex workers — so far they haven’t.

As pandemic restrictions disappear, it is crucial to ensure that everyone involved in sex work is protected under the law and has access to accountability measures.

A woman stands wearing a mask with a safety vest on in front of a collage of scantily clad women and a sign that reads 'nude women non stop'
A volunteer helps out at Zanzibar strip club during a low-barrier vaccination clinic for sex workers in Toronto in June 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

Recommendations

As feminist researchers, we propose that sex work be brought under the broader agenda of decent work so that the people offering services are protected.

  1. Governments need to have a legal mandate for preventing sexual exploitation.

  2. Law enforcement staff need to be trained in better responding to the needs of sex workers. To intervene in and address situations of abuse or violence is critical to ensure workplace safety and harm reduction.

  3. Awareness and educational campaigns need to focus on destigmatizing sex work.

  4. Policy-makers need to incorporate intersectionality as a working principle in identifying and responding to the different axes of oppression and marginalization impacting LGBTQ+ and racialized sex workers.

  5. Engagement with sex workers and human rights organizations need to happen when designing aid support to ensure that an inclusive pathway for recovery is created.

  6. Globally, there needs to be a steady commitment towards destigmatizing sex workers and their services.

Despite the gradual waning of pandemic restrictions, sex workers continue to face the dual insecurity of social discrimination and loss of income support. Many are still finding it difficult to stay afloat and sustain themselves.

Societally, we need to recognize that sex workers have agency and deserve the same respect, dignity and aid as any other person selling their labour.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Pfizer vaults into sickle cell market as GBT deal confirmed

Pfizer’s reported interest in acquiring sickle cell disease specialist Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)  has been confirmed, with the
The post Pfizer…

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Pfizer’s reported interest in acquiring sickle cell disease specialist Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)  has been confirmed, with the $68.50-per-share deal valuing GBT at $5.4 billion.

As we reported this morning, the deal gives Pfizer already-approved SCD therapy Oxbryta (voxelator) – which industry watchers reckon could see a dramatic uptick in sales with Pfizer’s marketing muscle – plus a phase 3 antibody candidate, a phase 1 follow-up to Oxbryta that could offer improved dosing.

Oxbryta is the main asset in the deal, with Evaluate predicting sales could reach $1.5 billion in 2028 – a leap forward from the $195 million it made last year and $127 million in the first half of 2022.

Pfizer is expecting big things from the takeover , predicting that the company’s SCD franchise will bring in combined peak sales of more than $3 billion.

The boards of both companies have recommended the deal to shareholders, and the two companies suggested it should close before the end of the year – assuming of course it doesn’t fall foul of any antitrust issues raised by financial regulators.

The GBT deal comes at a time when the market for SCD therapies is undergoing significant change, with multiple new drugs reaching the market after years of stagnation and progress also being made with genetic therapies from the likes of bluebird bio, Vertex Pharma/CRISPR Therapeutics and Precision Bio/Novartis.

Oxbryta came to market in 2019, a few days after Novartis’ injectable anti-P-selectin antibody Adakveo (crizanlizumab), which is also tipped for blockbuster sales but like Oxbryta has suffered from a slow rollout.

CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex are also in the running with their gene-editing candidate CTX001, in phase 1/2 trials which are due to generate final results later this year. If those results are positive the partners have said they could file for approval in the US before year-end.

Meanwhile, bluebird bio’s one-time gene therapy  lovotibeglogene autotemcel is supposed to be heading for regulatory filing in the US next year, although it has been delayed by an FDA partial clinical hold implemented after a persistent case of anaemia was seen in one adolescent patient in a clinical trial.

GBT’s inclacumab – another P-selectin antibody that could encroach on Adakveo – is in a pair of phase 3 trials due to generate results next year.

Meanwhile, there are a couple of orally-active pyruvate kinase R activators from Forma Therapeutics and Agios – etavopivat and mitapivat, respectively – in mid-stage development, and Pfizer has its own SCD candidate in PF-07209326, an E-selectin anatomist in phase 1.

It’s worth noting that this isn’t Pfizer’s first deal in SCD. In 2011 it paid $340 million for rights to rivipansel, a pan-selectin antagonist developed by GlycoMimetics, which failed a phase 3 test in 2019 and was jettisoned by Pfizer the following year.

The deal is another example of Pfizer splashing out on business development thanks to windfall cash generated by its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and oral antiviral therapy Paxlovid. It comes shortly after the group closed a $6.7 billion acquisition of Arena Pharma, bringing on board etrasimod in late-stage testing for ulcerative colitis, and made an $11.6 billion takeover bid for Biohaven and its migraine therapy Nurtec ODT (rimegepant).

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New COVID variants could emerge from animals or from people with chronic infections – but it’s not cause for panic

Animal reservoirs and people who experience chronic COVID infections could potentially see the emergence of new variants. But these variants aren’t necessarily…

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peterschreiber.media/Shutterstock

As the COVID pandemic rolls on, we’re becoming all too familiar with the continued emergence of new variants. Some can thwart immunity from vaccines and prior infections, increasing their capacity to disrupt our everyday lives. But where do new variants actually come from?

Variants develop through changes in the genetic code of the virus. This happens most commonly through mutations, essentially copy errors in the virus’ genetic information. Variants of concern are variants that have been identified to have a significant impact on transmissibility, severity of disease or immunity, likely to change the epidemiological situation of the pandemic.

Each time we’re infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID), our bodies produce a large number of virus particles with a range of genetic differences to the original infecting virus and to each other. Many of these mutations will have no effect on the virus.

Occasionally, however, mutations will occur that give the virus an advantage. For example, delta was more transmissible than earlier variants because of a mutation in its spike protein (a protein on the surface of SARS-CoV-2) allowing the virus to infect our cells more easily.

Even though we know a lot about how mutation occurs, it’s incredibly difficult to pinpoint where specific variants came from. But recent studies have investigated potential sources of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, including people who experience chronic COVID infections and animals.

Chronic infections

A chronic infection is where a person is actively infected with SARS-CoV-2 for a long period of time. This is different to long COVID, where symptoms persist well after the patient has recovered from the initial infection.

Chronic cases are rare and, to date, all documented cases have been in people with severely suppressed immune systems. These might be people undergoing treatment for cancer or following an organ transplant, for example.

Several studies have shown that the rate of mutation in these patients is higher than in those who are infected for a shorter time. Immunocompromised patients have a reduced immune response to infection and are often undergoing a range of treatments, both factors which are thought to allow a broader variety of mutations to develop. This is compounded by the longer period of time for which they may be infected.


Read more: Coronaviruses – a brief history


While new COVID variants do appear more likely to form in patients with chronic infections, the good news is they don’t seem to pose a significant threat.

In a recent study that looked at 27 chronically infected patients, there was no clear pattern of mutations. And when comparing mutations identified in the chronic patients with existing variants of concern, the chronic infections often lacked key mutations repeatedly identified in the variants of concern.

The researchers suggest the the majority of variants arising from chronically infected patients enhance virus replication, but are not characterised by improved transmission. This means they’re good at replicating in an infected person, but not as good at spreading from person to person.

The study demonstrated that there was no evidence of onward transmission from the patients with chronic infections to other people, which would be essential for a new variant to take hold and become a variant of concern. Although the authors note this may be due to human behaviour, rather than virus evolution, as immunosuppressed patients are likely to be confined to their homes.

That said, most variants of concern possess mutations that enhance transmission rather than replication, so it seems unlikely that these patients are significant sources of variants of concern.

Animal reservoirs

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to have been originally transmitted to humans via an animal market in China, and throughout the pandemic, we’ve learned that the virus can infect a variety of animals.

So another suggestion is that animals could be the source of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. The idea is they contract the virus from humans, which then mutates during infection in the animal host, before spreading back to humans.

A mink in the wild.
Could animals be a breeding ground for new COVID variants? An inspiration/Shutterstock

A species jump (or “zoonosis”) can only occur when multiple factors align. These include virological factors (for example, mutations that allow infection of human cells) and environmental factors (for example, close contact with infected animals). Zoonosis is not common, but is becoming more regular due to climate change and deforestation, which put more animals in contact with humans.

One study analysed the genetic code of omicron and showed high levels of similarity in the spike protein with that of mouse coronaviruses. The authors suggest the omicron variant may have occurred as a result of a human-to-mouse infection, mutation in the infected mouse, followed by transmission back to humans.

But often, when a virus infects a new host, such as a human, it’s unable to be transmitted further to other humans. The virus has to quickly adapt to allow it to thrive in the new host and go on to infect others. Indeed, where animal-to-human transmission of COVID occurred on Dutch mink farms, while we did see the virus mutate, there was no evidence of further transmission from the farm workers into the wider community.

Similarly, we’ve observed many instances of people infected with bird flu through prolonged close contact with birds. But there have been very few events of further transmission to other humans.

So although new variants may form in animals occasionally, it seems unlikely that they’re being re-transmitted back to humans and spreading.


Read more: Human catches COVID from a cat – here's why this new evidence is not cause for panic


While we can know geographically where new SARS-CoV-2 variants were first detected, it’s almost certain we’ll never know exactly where they come from. But as virus evolution is based on a combination of chance events such as mutation and human behaviour, it’s most likely that variants of concern are formed in a wide range of infected patients across the world.

With so many people being infected at once, many living in dense cities and travelling across the globe, the chances of viral evolution and onward spread of new mutants are increased. If large numbers of infections continue globally, more variants will continue to arise.

Grace C Roberts works at the University of Leeds and receives funding from the MRC.

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