Connect with us

International

Equity market: Take a moment – there’s a lot to think about

Equity market: Take a moment – there’s a lot to think about

Published

on

US and global equities rose sharply in July, but the marked fall in the US dollar, the rise in gold, the drop in long-term rates and the still-rolling pandemic show that the story may not be so simple. In the coming weeks, investors will have to find the right answers – or at least ask themselves the right questions.

Economic uncertainties, policy commitments and concerns about the pandemic

While global equities rose in July, this masked the fact that investors remained concerned about significant issues. The 5.1% rise in the MSCI AC World index in US dollar terms compared to the end of June, and the 8.4% rally in the MSCI Emerging Markets index in US dollar terms, coincded with a sharp fall in the US dollar. The currency lost 4.2% against a basket of developed currencies (DXY index) and also retreated against major emerging market currencies.

In local currency terms, the main equity indices in Europe and Japan ended the month down after moving sideways during the first three weeks and pulling back at the end of the month.

The 10.9% surge in the gold price took it to a record high at over USD 1 975 per troy ounce. This, and the additional easing in long-term rates, better illustrated investor concerns about signs of a resurgence of the COVID-19 outbreak and renewed US-China tensions.

Throughout the month, bond auctions saw record low rates across the curve, showing that demand for safe haven assets was not weakening.

Exhibit 1: Total returns in July: Currencies do matter

US up, Europe and Japan down

Still, US equities rose further in July (+5.5% for the S&P 500). They did so mainly because company results, although very poor, proved to be better than expected at the start of the reporting season.

The European indices (-1.8% for the EURO STOXX 50) and the Japanese indices (-2.6% for the Nikkei 225) retreated as the euro and the Japanese yen appreciated and amid a lack of economic clarity.

The most sought-after sectors globally were technology, basic materials, utilities and consumer discretionary and staples.

Economic activity has rebounded since May. What’s next?

While economic data was quite positive, it wasn’t entirely reassuring in terms of the coming months.

On the one hand, the improvement in activity surveys in June and July was confirmed and first estimates of national accounts showed a drop in GDP in the second quarter that – even though remarkably steep – was less pronounced than expected.

On the other hand, the rebound in consumer confidence appeared to be stalling. This raised questions about the momentum for consumption, especially given that the recovery in employment in the US appeared to weaken and European short-time working schemes are gradually being adjusted.

The 3.2% year-on-year increase in Chinese GDP in Q2 (after a contraction by 6.8% in Q1) confirmed that activity could rebound after an economic shutdown, but it also highlighted weaknesses, particularly in private domestic demand. It’s an outcome that may be seen in the rest of the world in Q3. This would require economic policies to continue to support activity.

The tone of major central banks remained unchanged: The US Federal Reserve and the ECB are still cautious in their analysis of the economy and are indicating that they will maintain their highly accommodative monetary policies. 

EU agrees a big step forward

The first week of July saw the resolution of the case triggered by the 5 May ruling of the German constitutional court. Without this, the Bundesbank could have been legally forced to halt its participation in the ECB’s public securities purchase programme (PSPP).

Investors were then able to shift their attention to the fiscal aspects of EU solidarity.

After delicate and much longer-than-expected negotiations, EU leaders agreed on the Next Generation EU stimulus package on 21 July.

The principle of common debt and direct grants (EUR 390 billion out of EUR 750 billion) paid to countries most affected by the economic consequences of the pandemic was accepted. The accord came at the cost of a few concessions made to the ‘frugal’ countries, which have, among other things, obtained greater rebates on their budget contributions.

Even though some questions remain unanswered, the affirmation of EU solidarity sent a strong political signal. It was welcomed by investors and contributed to the rise of the euro. The currency occasionally topped USD 1.19, its highest since May 2018.

The Next Generation EU stimulus package was seen as very positive for southern member states. The Italian bond market is viewed as the main beneficiary. The yield on the 10-year BTP eased by 25bp from the end of June to 1.01% at the end of July. The previous day it had fallen to 0.97%, its lowest since 24 February.

The performance of the Spanish and Portuguese bond markets was less pronounced, with a monthly fall of 13bp for 10-year maturities.

At the end of the month, the 10-year German Bund fell back to below the ECB’s deposit rate (-0.50%) for the first time in more than two months. After a brief return to its lowest level since mid-May, it ended at -0.52% on 31 July (-7bp compared to end-June).

Short-term hurdles are tricky to judge, but help is at hand  

In the coming weeks, investors will need to form firm views on a number of topics.

While it might have been easy to foresee a drastic drop in activity followed by a rebound after the containment measures were lifted, it will be tougher will be to trace out what happens next as the main consumption catch-up effects have already been seen and yet many questions remain. Are households going to keep back some of their savings if they believe employment conditions are likely to worsen? Will companies decide to invest when many uncertainties remain?

These are tricky considerations, but investors will find some help at hand. Firstly, governments remain committed to supporting their economies, whether through monetary or fiscal instruments. This should ensure low rates for a long time as well as negative real rates, which appears to be favourable for equities.

Also, while second quarter corporate earnings have, as expected, deteriorated, there are several reasons to remain somewhat optimistic. In the US, earnings and revenues generally beat expectations and the outlook from management and financial analysts is encouraging. In particular, upward earnings revisions are likely to support equities.

The macro and microeconomic aspects, even though exceptional due to the unique nature of the current crisis, still look favourable in the medium term. That said, the COVID-19 pandemic unfortunately remains yet to be curbed.

In addition, the political and geopolitical environment looks hard to read just a few months out from the US elections.

In the short term, confidence should make the difference. While households have been concerned over the re-emergence of infections that could lead to further restrictions in travel and social gatherings, investors are focusing on progress in the search for treatments or vaccines. The difficulties inherent in this type of research, the results of which are hard to interpret, could lead to more erratic swings in equities. Given our medium-term scenario, any correction should be seen as a buying opportunity.


Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. This document does not constitute investment advice.

The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns.

Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).

Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.

Writen by Nathalie Benatia. The post Equity market: Take a moment – there’s a lot to think about appeared first on Investors' Corner - The official blog of BNP Paribas Asset Management.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Canada’s productivity crisis linked to government overspending

Dubious government investments are stunting our standard of living While government policies can benefit societies and economies, they often produce the…

Published

on

By

Dubious government investments are stunting our standard of living

While government policies can benefit societies and economies, they often produce the opposite results.

Recent concerns highlight Canada’s worrying trend of dismal productivity growth and growth prospects, with several international bodies predicting minimal growth in Canadians’ real (adjusted for inflation) personal income over the next 30 years (an entire generation).

To address this productivity slump, governmental strategies have varied.

One strategy has emphasized workers’ skills, with authorities advocating for youth to pursue marketable technical trades rather than conventional university degrees.

Another strategy has been to foster a more extensive, intensive, and robust innovation ‘ecosystem’ coupled with venture capital and institutional investor funding. Addressing permitting obstacles and other regulatory impediments are another approach.

Yet, despite the potential of these strategies, the persistent actions of both federal and provincial governments challenge productivity growth. Notably, these governments often allocate extensive taxpayer funds towards projects with minimal returns on investment.

Over the years, provincial utilities like BC Hydro, Manitoba Hydro, and Nalcor (an umbrella company for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro) have seen significant overruns. The financial commitment to these projects, such as the Site C dam, Keeyask, Bipole III, and Muskrat Falls, far surpassed initial projections.

A staggering $43.2 billion was spent, compared to initial expectations of $23.9 billion, to produce just a couple of gigawatts of ‘cheap’ power – just enough for a million households. For perspective, the same funds could have been channelled into nuclear energy, producing more power and less environmental harm.

In addition to these massive provincial governmental blunders, the federal government lavished $35 billion in tax relief subsidies for just three electric vehicle (EV) battery plants. According to the federal Parliamentary Budget Officer, two of these plants ‘might’ be paid off in ‘as soon as’ 20 years.

Topping it off is Ottawa’s purchase and expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, where government-induced regulatory obstacles continue to explode costs. Ottawa has now spent a staggering $30.9 billion to expand the pipeline, almost six times the original estimate of $5.3 billion. It will be impossible to recoup anything near what is being spent. For more than eighty percent of its route, the new, parallel Trans Mountain line follows the existing line: an additional enormous expense accrued from massive mismanagement.

A common thread weaving through these projects is the government’s willingness to finance ventures that initially seemed economically questionable. State-owned enterprises often prioritize political motives over profitability – a theme evident in the electric vehicle and Trans Mountain decisions. Perhaps the renowned work “How Big Things Get Done” would be more aptly named “How Big Things Get Botched” in Canada.

Ultimately, a nation’s economic vitality hinges on the collective performance of its businesses and people. Investments in underperforming projects yield minimal returns. The consequence of such political spending is reduced productivity and diminished wealth per individual.

Unfortunately, our kids will bear the brunt of these decisions, likely facing a compromised standard of living.

By Ian Madsen

Ian Madsen is the Senior Policy Analyst at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Troy Media

Read More

Continue Reading

International

The Evolution of Amenities in the Office and Industrial Markets

With the increasing push to return to the office, employers and developers, together, are tasked with sweetening the deal for current and future employees…

Published

on

With the increasing push to return to the office, employers and developers, together, are tasked with sweetening the deal for current and future employees in the office and industrial markets. Makeshift home offices and kitchen counters became the new office during the pandemic, and working from home came with its own set of perks, such as no commute and more flexibility of time. Promises of increased collaboration with the return to in-person work aren’t enough of an incentive. Now, workers across industries expect more when physically in the office.

At NAIOP’s CRE.Converge conference this week, experts explored the range of amenities that developers can consider for emerging building plans or incorporate into already-existing office and industrial spaces. Dawn Riegel, principal, Ware Malcomb, moderated the panel featuring Michael Longo, senior vice president, CBRE; Stacey Mosley, director of research, Brandywine Realty Trust; and Jinger Tapia, vice president, design, Ware Malcomb. 

“We have a labor and employment problem, not a work-from-home problem,” Longo said, citing the ongoing actors’ strike in Hollywood and the U.S.’s ongoing low employment rates. Until the issues of labor and employment are better addressed, Longo said, we should expect to see challenges in the return-to-office movement, but this does not mean developers can’t try to make it as enticing as possible. 

The relationship between attraction and retention, coupled with adopting a holistic view of amenities, was a common theme of the conversation. Developers should consider how well placed and well-positioned their buildings are in a given area, whether in a city or a suburb, and have a good understanding of a company’s culture to know what its employees’ needs are. Data has been collected on workers’ preferred amenities – natural lighting, green spaces, access to parking – but sometimes that data isn’t one-size-fits-all, Riegel said.

We’re in the early days of a massive transition of ownership and assets, Longo believes, noting that capital is tough to access and developers have to be careful about positioning. Financial solvency is key. Building spaces need to be able to take on a new life if a new tenant were to arrive. 

The aesthetics of office styles have rapidly changed over the past three years, Longo said. Office aesthetics have shifted from dropped ceilings and cubicle workspaces to open-concept spaces focused on collaboration. Developers and employers are still figuring out the latest iteration now that workers are returning to the office post-pandemic. 

The low-hanging fruit, as Mosley says, is paying attention to trends in food and furniture. Food delivery service became normalized during the pandemic, and employees want a similar luxury in the office. Mosley offered up some suggestions: coffee carts that swap out employees’ at-home drip coffee for a premium espresso or vending machines with fresh foods like salads. An office space’s furniture should speak to how employees interact with each other and how they work, collaboratively or solo. 

Later, Mosley mentioned enhancing the audiovisual experience for in-person employees to connect with others remotely and on conference calls, and Tapia noted the design transition from giant conference rooms to specially designated “Zoom rooms.” 

The panelists went on to discuss exterior amenities and how cities look at this issue. Mosley noted that exterior improvements can often become amenities for not only those coming into the office but for those in the surrounding community as well. It’s important to leverage the immediate area around your building, whether that be local restaurants or dry cleaners. 

Both Mosley and Tapia stressed the importance of integrating green spaces, such as parks, walking paths, patios and balconies, and sports courts. 

In the past, “amenities were a landscape island in the middle of a parking lot with a concrete bench that the smokers could go to,” Tapia joked. But now, workers of all kinds want connectivity between indoor and outdoor spaces. 

“For the industrial user, it’s about stepping away from the work and providing that connection to nature and a respite from what’s going on in the facility… from a noise standpoint,” Tapia said. As these outdoor amenities are added, requirements from the respective cities must also be taken into account. Tapia said she is taking cues from Mexico’s contained industrial parks to naturally build sustainable initiatives into the design process. This also reflects attention to the evolution of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and the need – and demand – for more green spaces.

From the investment perspective, Longo, who specializes in properties across the West Coast, says his current strategy is to assess the land use first and then consider the design and cost because of all the changing attitudes from cities toward new developments and the current declining value of buildings. 

Mosley, whose work is primarily based in Philadelphia, says the growing population in cities has contributed to the success of office and industrial outdoor spaces. She said these spaces should combine both the social and environmental factors. “Let the communities take ownership to catalyze the creativity of the space,” Mosley said, highlighting live concerts, sporting events, and even weddings that have found a venue in these spaces.  


JLL logo

This post is brought to you by JLL, the social media and conference blog sponsor of NAIOP’s CRE.Converge 2023. Learn more about JLL at www.us.jll.com or www.jll.ca.

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Uniting for Progress – the Fifth Annual SYNGAP1 Conference hosted by SynGAP Research Fund (SRF) will take place November 30th in Orlando, Florida. #SyngapConf

Orlando, FL – 19 October 2023 – The Syngap Research Fund (SRF) will host Uniting for Progress — its fifth annual conference on SYNGAP1 research…

Published

on

Orlando, FL – 19 October 2023 – The Syngap Research Fund (SRF) will host Uniting for Progress — its fifth annual conference on SYNGAP1 research and clinical care on Thursday, November 30 at the Embassy Suites in Orlando, Florida.  Clinicians, researchers, industry professionals and SYNGAP1 families are invited to register at SyngapResearchFund.org.

Credit: SRF

Orlando, FL – 19 October 2023 – The Syngap Research Fund (SRF) will host Uniting for Progress — its fifth annual conference on SYNGAP1 research and clinical care on Thursday, November 30 at the Embassy Suites in Orlando, Florida.  Clinicians, researchers, industry professionals and SYNGAP1 families are invited to register at SyngapResearchFund.org.

“Uniting for Progress will showcase how SRF and the SYNGAP1 community are ready to partner with industry to deliver therapies for patients with this horrible disease.  It is an important opportunity for us to collaboratively improve the lives of people with SYNGAP1” said Mike Graglia, Managing Director of SRF. 

“The SRF annual scientific conference is an excellent opportunity to learn about the latest advances in SYNGAP1 research and to collaborate with other researchers on new projects. I am excited to be a part of this event and to help make a difference in the lives of people with SYNGAP1 Related Disorder,” said Dr. Kim Wiltrout, MD, of Boston Children’s Hospital.

The agenda will feature six sections:

  • New Findings about SYNGAP1
  • Drug Repurposing for SYNGAP1
  • Understanding SYNGAP1 at a Molecular Level – VUS & Missense Variants
  • Updates on Public Preclinical Pipelines
  • Clinical Trial Readiness – Natural History
  • Clinical Trial Readiness – Quantitative Measures

The scientific conference on Thursday will be followed by a family meeting on Friday, December 1, 2023 at the same location. Families are encouraged to attend both days.

“The conference is a pivotal annual event for the SYNGAP1 community. It is an invaluable opportunity to learn about the latest SYNGAP1 research, network with professionals who understand our children, bond with other families, and advocate for our loved ones. Coming together once a year fuels my passion and energy to be part of the SRF team building community and seeking precision therapies for our children,” said Suzanne Jones, parent of a child with SYNGAP1 & SRF Board Chair

We are grateful to our sponsors Stoke Therapeutics, Acadia Pharmaceuticals, Simons Searchlight, Tevard Biosciences, ciitizen/Invitae, Longboard Pharmaceuticals, and Rarebase for their support of this event.  

“Every year this event continues to grow – more families, more researchers, more clinicians – and we couldn’t do it without our sponsors,” said Peter Halliburton, Director of Development for SRF.

Agenda with topics and speakers

  • New Findings
    • New insights in the DEEs, including SYNGAP1 by Prof. Scheffer, AO, MBBS, PhD, University of Melbourne
    • Gene delivery by milk exosomes restores SYNGAP1 expression in mouse brains by Prof. Zempleni, PhD, University of Nebraska
    • SYNGAP1 beyond the Synapse by Dr. Willsey, PhD, University of California, San Francisco
       
  • Drug Repurposing
    • Moderation by Dr. Xin Tang, PhD, of Boston Children’s Hospital
    • Drug Repurposing Screen in Drosophila by Dr. Chow, PhD, University of Utah
    • Drug Repurposing Screen in Patient Models by Dr. Moxham, PhD, Rarebase, PBC
    • Lessons Learned from Phenylbutyrate Repurposing by Dr. Grinspan, MD, MS, Weill Cornell Medicine
       
  • Understanding SYNGAP1 at a Molecular Level
    • SynGAP missense: potential druggability and how might we get there by Dr. Courtney, PhD, Turku Bioscience Centre, Finland
    • Modeling the structural effects of SYNGAP1 missense mutations using molecular dynamics simulations by Dr. Postila, PhD, Turku Bioscience Centre, Finland
    • Integrated approaches to resolving SYNGAP1 missense variants of uncertain significance by Dr. Carville, PhD, Northwestern University
    • iPSC models of SYNGAP1 dysfunction by Dr. Coba, PhD, University of Southern California
    • Non-synaptic function of the ASD Associated Gene SYNGAP1 in Cortical Neurogenesis by Dr. Birtele, PhD, University of Southern California
       
  • Preclinical Pipeline
    • Why SYNGAP1 is an attractive target for Industry by Dr. Mingorance, PhD, Dracaena Consulting
    • TANGO Platform by Dr. Aznarez, PhD, Stoke Therapeutics
    • Praxis ASO Platform by Praxis Precisions Medicine
    • Suppressor tRNAs for the treatment of DEEs by Daniel Fisher, MBA, Tevard Biosciences
       
  • Clinical Trial Readiness – Natural History
    • Moderation by Dr. Helbig, MD, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia 
    • A prospective natural history study in SYNGAP1 – first insights from ENDD by Dr. Jillian McKee, MD, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
    • Understanding the natural history of SYNGAP1 through data integration by Julie Xian, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
    • Outlining the clinical landscape of SYNGAP1 through a computational phenotype approach using 5586 phenotypic annotations in 197 individuals by Dr. Kessler, MD, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
    • SYNGAP1 Genotype and Phenotype Analysis by Dr. Kim Wiltrout, MD, Boston Children’s Hospital 
    • Meaningful Clinical Outcomes and Development of a Disease Concept Model by Katharine Cunnane, Weill Cornell Medicine
       
  • Clinical Trial Readiness – Quantitative Measures
    • Using EEG to understand “how the brain works” in SYNGAP1 by Dr. Levin, MD, Boston Children’s Hospital
    • Deep Learning EEG Biomarkers in SYNGAP1 Rodent Models and Patients by Dr. Gonzalez-Sulser, PhD, University of Edinburgh
    • Validating the ORCA for SYNGAP1 & other DEEs by Dr. Zigler, PhD, Duke University
    • Recent Neurobehavioral Findings in SYNGAP1 by Dr. Frazier, PhD, John Carroll University

About SYNGAP1-related intellectual disability (SRID)

SYNGAP1-related intellectual disability (ICD-10 F78.A1) is a rare genetic disorder caused by variants on the SYNGAP1 gene that reduce SynGAP protein levels. SRF has identified almost over 1,300 patients to date, the number grows weekly.  This protein acts as a regulator in the synapses (where neurons communicate with each other). When SynGAP protein levels are too low, we see an increase in excitability in the synapses making it difficult for neurons to communicate effectively. This leads to many neurological issues seen in SynGAP patients.

Symptoms of SYNGAP1 include: intellectual disability; epilepsy; hypotonia (low muscle tone); gross and fine motor skill delays; autism spectrum disorder; gastro-intestinal disorders; sleep and behavior disorders and visual abnormalities. 

About the SynGAP Research Fund (SRF)

The mission of the SynGAP Research Fund (SRF) is to improve the quality of life for SYNGAP1 patients through the research and development of treatments, therapies and support systems. 

SRF was founded in the US in 2018 as a 501(c)(3) US public charity, and families created sister organizations for SRF in the UK in 2020, in Europe (Netherlands) in 2022, and in Latin America (Colombia) in 2023. 

Completely parent-led, SRF is the largest non-government funder of SynGAP research having committed over $4 million in grants to date. The founders cover all operational costs, ensuring donations fund science. SRF’s grant program awards one or two-year grants to investigators, physician residents, and clinicians who are interested in studying SYNGAP1. SRF grants are intended to help researchers explore novel ideas and answer open questions related to the clinical aspects of and therapies for SRID. 

SRF is a member of the COMBINEDbrain, Global Genes Foundation Alliance, the Everylife Foundation Community Congress, Personalized Medicine Coalition, Rare Epilepsy Network, and the Epilepsy Leadership Council.

For more on SRF, visit: SyngapResearchFund.org or follow @cureSYNGAP1 on X, LinkedIn, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook or TikTok.


Read More

Continue Reading

Trending