Overview: Profit-taking, perhaps spurred by disappointing retail sales figures, sent Chinese equity markets down by 4.5%-5.2% today, the most since early February. It appears to be triggering a broader setback in equities today. The Hang Seng fell 2%, and most other markets in the region were off less than 1%. India was bucking the trend in late turnover. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was off around 0.75%, and the 200-day moving average that stymied it last month had been approached yesterday. US shares are trading heavily as well. The S&P 500 gapped down in early February as the swoon began. The bottom of that gap, near 3260 is the next significant technical hurdle. Bond markets are little changed in the face of the equity drop. The US 10-year is hovering around 62 bp. The dollar's downside momentum has stalled, and the greenback is trading higher against nearly all the world's currencies today. Among the majors, the Scandis and Australian dollar are the heaviest, but the Canadian dollar, yen, and Swiss franc, less than 0.2% lower, near midday in Europe. Gold continues to gravitate around $1800 an ounce, and September WTI is straddling $41 a barrel.
China's Q2 GDP was stronger than expected. It expanded by 11.5% quarter-over-quarter after a revised 10% decline in Q1 (initially -9.8%). The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey was for 9.6% growth. That translates into 3.2% growth from a year ago, though output in H1 was still 1.6% lower than a year ago. While the June industrial output and investment figures were in line with expectations, the June retail sales disappointed. It fell 1.8% from a year ago. While better than the 2.8% decline reported in May, it defied expectations for an increase. The initial takeaway is that the infrastructure spending and fiscal stimulus are helping industry, it is not bolstering consumption.
Australia created 210k jobs last month, more than twice what economists projected. However, there was disappointment that all the jobs were part-time, as some 38k full-time positions were lost. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.4% from 7.1%, which is was a bit more than expected and reflects a stronger than anticipated rise in the participation rate (64% vs. 62.9% in May).
Japanese weekly portfolio flows grabbed attention. Japanese investors were steady buyers of foreign bonds in June after selling in May but moved to the sidelines in late June and early July. They returned last week and bought JPY1.06 trillion of foreign bonds. However, the even bigger story was the record divestment of global equities. Japanese investors sold JPY3.6 trillion of international stocks last week, according to the Ministry of Finance data. This offsets about 68% of the foreign equities bought this year. For their part, foreign investors bought as roughly as many Japanese equities and bonds last week as they had sold the previous week. Recall that last week, the dollar slipped by 0.5% against the yen and was virtually unchanged against the euro.
The dollar is in about a quarter of a yen range below JPY107.10. Options for about $1.5 bln are a bit higher in the JPY107.25-JPY107.35 area and are set to expire today. The upper end of that range is also marked by the downtrend in place since early June. Nearby support around JPY106.65 was tested yesterday. The Australian dollar reached almost $0.7040 yesterday, its highest level in a month, but the upside momentum has stalled. Around $0.6980, where it is trading in late in the European morning, houses an expiring option for about A$563 mln and is roughly the middle of the range that extends toward $0.6920-$0.6930. The PBOC's dollar reference rate was slightly firmer than the models suggested, but the greenback remained mostly below the CNY7.0 level. Separately, we note that South Korea left its 7-day repo rate at 50 bp, as widely anticipated. On the other hand, Indonesia delivered the 25 bp cut in its 7-day reverse repo rate to 4.0%, as expected.
The ECB meeting today and press conference is today's European highlight but really plays second fiddle this week to the European Summit. The ECB shot its quiver of arrows last week when it expanded and extended its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program and indicated it would continue to reinvest proceeds of maturing issues through at least 2022. There is no need for fresh action, and the more than a trillion euro of the long-term loans at minus 100 bp removes the urgency of reducing the reserves impacted by negative deposit rates.
At the current pace, the ECB will have exhausted the PEPP a few months before the middle of 2021, the new time frame after the extension from the end of this year at the last ECB meeting. At some point, possibly late this year, will either reduce its buying or, more likely, announce a further increase in PEPP. Lagarde is expected to underscore that the new bonds that will likely be issued by the EU are candidates for its bond purchases. To the extent that there is a discussion, the ECB leadership may have to fend off a rear-guard action that seeks to get is purchases and holdings back in line with the capital key. This would reduce the ECB's flexibility to deploy its resources where it is necessary to ensure the transmission mechanism of its monetary policy is working.
The UK employment data was showed modest improvement. The June claimant count fell by 28.1k after increasing by a revised 566k in May (initially 529k). Approximately 125k jobs were lost over the past three months, compared with projections for twice the loss. The ILO measure of unemployment was steady at 3.9%. The median forecast was for an increase to 4.2%. The UK furlough program is helping to contain, or some say, postpone the job destruction.
The euro reached a four-month high a little above $1.1450 yesterday. It has been in a 20-tick range on either side of $1.1400 in the European morning, where an option for about 855 mln euros will expire today. There also are a set of options for roughly 1.3 bln euro bln euros between $1.1435 and $1.1450 that roll-off today. The euro has rallied strongly against the Swiss franc in recent days, and it reached almost CHF1.08 today, its highest level in over a month, and marks chart-based resistance. We suspect that some participants switched from dollars and yen funding to franc-funding. Sterling is pulling back from yesterday's push to $1.2650, ahead of the $1.2670 cap that was seen at the end of last week and earlier this week. The option for GBP370 mln at $1.2510 that expires today looks vulnerable. Initial support is seen closer to $1.2480.
The US data continues to surprise on the upside. Today's June retail sales report risks more of the same. The manufacturing sector is leading the US recovery. Industrial output jumped by 5.4%, led by a 7.2% surge in manufacturing. The key driver was a more than 100% month-over-month increase in auto production. The Empire State manufacturing survey rose to 17.2 (from -0.2), which is above last year's highs (14.4). This is not to argue that the economy has recovered. The claim is much more modest: The manufacturing sector has begun to recover. The stalled, and sometimes reversal or re-opening measures may act as a headwind and shift some growth into Q4. That said, as of the end of last week, the NY Fed's GDP Nowcast projects, the US economy is expanding at a 10.1% annualized rate this quarter.
US weekly jobless claims continue to prove sticky. They peaked at the end of March near 6.9 mln. They have fallen every week since but were still at a lofty 1.3 mln in the holiday-shortened week to July 3. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey expected 1.25 mln people filed for unemployment insurance last week. The other weekly report that has been drawing attention is the Fed's balance sheet, which is reported shortly after the markets close today. It has fallen for four consecutive weeks as previously extended funds (e.g., swaps and repos) are not fully rolled over, and new programs are slow to catch on, like Main Street.
The US dollar slumped against the Canadian dollar yesterday after the Bank of Canada's decision to leave rates unchanged and offered forward guidance that suggests no rate hike until after 2022, by which time the economic slack will be absorbed. The greenback tested the CAD1.35-level. It is the lower end of the one-month trading range and corresponds to the 200-day moving average. Although the upper end of the range is not until CAD1.3630-CAD1.3650, initial resistance is around CAD1.3540-CAD1.3550. Similarly, the greenback tested the lower end of its recent range against the Mexican peso (~MXN24.25) and is bouncing off it today. The MXN24.50 area offers the first important hurdle for stronger dollar recovery.
In this specific predicament, U.S. officials have to choose a strategy to deliver the aid without the perception of benefiting Hamas, a group the U.S. and Israel both classify as a terrorist organization.
When aiding people in war zones, you can’t just send money, a development strategy called “cash transfers” that has become increasingly popular due to its efficiency. Sending money can boost the supply of locally produced goods and services and help people on the ground pay for what they need most. But injecting cash into an economy so completely cut off from the world would only stoke inflation.
So the aid must consist of goods that have to be brought into Gaza, and services provided by people working as part of an aid mission. Humanitarian aid can include food and water; health, sanitation and hygiene supplies and services; and tents and other materials for shelter and settlement.
Due to the closure of the border with Israel, aid can arrive in Gaza only via the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border.
The U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, will likely turn to its longtime partner on the ground, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA, to serve as supply depots and distribute goods. That agency, originally founded in 1949 as a temporary measure until a two-state solution could be found, serves in effect as a parallel yet unelected government for Palestinian refugees.
USAID will likely want to tap into UNRWA’s network of 284 schools – many of which are now transformed into humanitarian shelters housing two-thirds of the estimated 1 million people displaced by Israeli airstrikes – and 22 hospitals to expedite distribution.
Since Biden took office, total yearly U.S. assistance for the Palestinian territories has totaled around $150 million, restored from just $8 million in 2020 under the Trump administration. During the Obama administration, however, the U.S. was providing more aid to the territories than it is now, with $1 billion disbursed in the 2013 fiscal year.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency is a U.N. organization. It’s not run by Hamas, unlike, for instance, the Gaza Ministry of Health. However, Hamas has frequently undermined UNRWA’s efforts and diverted international aid for military purposes.
Humanitarian aid professionals regularly have to contend with these trade-offs when deciding to what extent they can work with governments and local authorities that commit violent acts. They need to do so in exchange for the access required to help civilians under their control.
Similarly, Biden has had to make concessions to Israel while brokering for the freedom to send humanitarian aid to Gaza. For example, he has assured Israel that if any of the aid is diverted by Hamas, the operation will cease.
This promise may have been politically necessary. But if Biden already believes Hamas to be uncaring about civilian welfare, he may not expect the group to refrain from taking what they can.
Security best practices
What can be done to protect the security of humanitarian aid operations that take place in the midst of dangerous conflicts?
Under International Humanitarian Law, local authorities have the primary responsibility for ensuring the delivery of aid – even when they aren’t carrying out that task. To increase the chances that the local authorities will not attack them, aid groups can give “humanitarian notification” and voluntarily alert the local government as to where they will be operating.
Under the current agreement between the U.S., Israel and Egypt, the convoy will raise the U.N. flag. International inspectors will make sure no weapons are on board the vehicles before crossing over from Arish, Egypt, to Rafah, a city located on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt.
The aid convoy will likely cross without militarized security. This puts it at some danger of diversion once inside Gaza. But whether the aid convoy is attacked, seized or left alone, the Biden administration will have demonstrated its willingness to attempt a humanitarian relief operation. In this sense, a relatively small first convoy bearing water, medical supplies and food, among other items, serves as a test balloon for a sustained operation to follow soon after.
In that case, the presence of U.S. armed forces might provoke attacks on Gaza-bound aid convoys by Hamas and Islamic jihad fighters that otherwise would not have occurred. Combined with the mobilization of two U.S. Navy carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, I’d be concerned that such a move might also stoke regional anger. It would undermine the Biden administration’s attempts to cool the situation.
On U.N.-approved missions, aid delivery may be secured by third-party peacekeepers – meaning, in this case, personnel who are neither Israeli nor Palestinian – with the U.N. Security Council’s blessing. In this case, tragically, it’s unlikely that such a resolution could conceivably pass such a vote, much less quickly enough to make a difference.
Topher L. McDougal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
Credit: 2023 Barbarewicz et al.
“The majority of wound infections often manifest themselves immediately postoperatively, so close followup should take place […]”
BUFFALO, NY- October 20, 2023 – A new research perspective was published in Oncoscience (Volume 10) on October 4, 2023, entitled, “Diagnosis and management of postoperative wound infections in the head and neck region.”
In everyday clinical practice at a department for oral and maxillofacial surgery, a large number of surgical procedures in the head and neck region take place under both outpatient and inpatient conditions. The basis of every surgical intervention is the patient’s consent to the respective procedure. Particular attention is drawn to the general and operation-specific risks.
Particularly in the case of soft tissue procedures in the facial region, bleeding, secondary bleeding, scarring and infection of the surgical area are among the most common complications/risks, depending on the respective procedure. In their new perspective, researchers Filip Barbarewicz, Kai-Olaf Henkel and Florian Dudde from Army Hospital Hamburg in Germany discuss the diagnosis and management of postoperative infections in the head and neck region.
“In order to minimize the wound infections/surgical site infections, aseptic operating conditions with maximum sterility are required.”
Furthermore, depending on the extent of the surgical procedure and the patient‘s previous illnesses, peri- and/or postoperative antibiotics should be considered in order to avoid postoperative surgical site infection. Abscesses, cellulitis, phlegmone and (depending on the location of the procedure) empyema are among the most common postoperative infections in the respective surgical area. The main pathogens of these infections are staphylococci, although mixed (germ) patterns are also possible.
“Risk factors for the development of a postoperative surgical site infection include, in particular, increased age, smoking, multiple comorbidities and/or systemic diseases (e.g., diabetes mellitus type II) as well as congenital and/ or acquired immune deficiency [10, 11].”
Continue reading the paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/oncoscience.589
Correspondence to: Florian Dudde
Keywords: surgical site infection, head and neck surgery
Oncoscience is a peer-reviewed, open-access, traditional journal covering the rapidly growing field of cancer research, especially emergent topics not currently covered by other journals. This journal has a special mission: Freeing oncology from publication cost. It is free for the readers and the authors.
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G77 Nations, China, Push Back On U.S. "Loss And Damage" Climate Fund In Days Leading Up To UN Summit
As was the case in primary school with bringing in presents, make sure you bring enough for the rest of the class, otherwise people get ornery...
This age old rule looks like it could be rearing its head in the days leading up to the UN COP 28 climate summit, set to take place in the United Arab Emirates in about six weeks.
At the prior UN COP 27, which took place in Egypt last year, the U.S. pushed an idea for a new World Bank "loss and damage" climate slush fund to help poor countries with climate change. But the G77 nations plus China, including many developing countries, are pushing back on the idea, according to a new report from the Financial Times.
The goal was to arrange how the fund would operate and where the money would come from for the "particularly vulnerable" nations who would have access to it prior to the upcoming summit in UAE.
But as FT notes, Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta, the Cuban chair of the G77 plus China group, has said that talks about these details were instead "deadlocked" over issues of - you guessed it - where the money is going and the governance of the fund.
The U.S.'s proposal for the fund to be governed by the World Bank has been rejected by the G77 after "extensive" discussions, the report says. Cuesta has said that the nations seek to have the fund managed elsewhere, but that the U.S. wasn't open to such arrangements.
Cuesta said: “We have been confronted with an elephant in the room, and that elephant is the US. We have been faced with a very closed position that it is [the World Bank] or nothing.”
Christina Chan, a senior adviser to US climate envoy John Kerry, responded: “We have been working diligently at every turn to address concerns, problem-solve, and find landing zones.” She said the U.S. has been "clear and consistent" in their messaging on the need for the fund.
Cuesta contends that the World Bank, known for lending to less affluent nations, lacks a "climate culture" and often delays decision-making, hindering quick responses to climate emergencies like Pakistan's recent severe flooding.
The G77 coalition voiced concerns about the World Bank's legal framework potentially limiting the fund's ability to accept diverse funding sources like philanthropic donations or to access capital markets.
With just days left before the UN COP 28 summit, the World Bank insists that combating climate change is integral to its mission and vows to collaborate on structuring the fund.