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Equities Achieve Low Earth Orbit Ahead of Space-X

Equities Achieve Low Earth Orbit Ahead of Space-X

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The US returned to work overnight after a Memorial Day break that looked more spring break than social distancing. Wall Street quickly achieved escape velocity, powered by the peak virus trade, with equities and oil reaching for space yet again.

This morning, headlines have been dominated by Hong Kong concerns, with the legislature considering a controversial national anthem law today, following more protests over the weekend. We are yet to see the wording of the security law Beijing will be imposing on Hong Kong, but US politicians are already making muted threats of retaliation, no matter what is passed in the end.

No matter how China and Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam dress it up, the passage of the security legislation from Beijing will have consequences for the beleaguered SAR and will further darken relations between the US and China. Regarding the bill being debated today about disrespecting the national anthem, China does have a point. Hong Kong is part of China, something we all seem to forget these days.

Global recovery hopes though, are trumping trade and regional tensions for now, following Wall Street’s strong performance overnight, Asia stock markets are modestly higher today. For now, trade and geopolitical blips, appear to be dips to buy into the rally, rather than a sea change in sentiment. That can only come if second waves of COVID-19 outbreaks sweeps developed countries, or vaccine disappointments mount up.

Far more exciting today is the return to space by US astronauts on an American built rocket. Space-X’s Dragon capsule launches to the International Space Station later today carrying two US astronauts. Aside from wishing them all the best, in a dark world, it is nice to see the spirit of human innovation alive and well.

Back on Earth, the fiscal stimulus frenzy by governments around the world continues unabated, highlighting just how disconnected capital markets have become from the situation on the ground. Singapore announced SGD 30 bio+ of additional stimulus via its 4th budget this year, and Japan has been outlining their latest package this morning. By my reckoning Japans extra budgets now total some $2 trillion, and Singapore SGD 100 billion. Long after COVID-19 is a memory, the fiscal funding requirements of the bloated balance sheets of governments around the world will compete with private capital. That, though, will be a story for another day; let’s hope we get a few years inflation to deflate the whole thing away.

The data calendar is light around the world over the next 24 hours. This morning, China Industrial Profits fell by 27.40% in April, a slight improvement over the 36.70% fall in March, hinting that China’s recovery is still on track. That will leave markets headline-driven in the shorter term, most likely coming from Hong Kong.

Asian equities are mixed as Wall Street plays catch-up.

Wall Street returned to work yesterday and played catch-up with the rest of the world, equities powering higher in a positive overnight session. Vaccine hopes and the peak-virus economic recovery trade saw the S&P 500 rise 1.23%, the NASDAQ edged 0.17% higher, with the Dow Jones outperforming, leaping 2.17%. A measure of just how far equities have come is that the S&P 500 has now recovered around 70% of its losses. It is currently testing its 200-day moving average at 3005.00, with further gains to 3200.00 not out of the question. As counterintuitive as it may seem, given the state of the world, resistance is futile for now.

With the US in catch-up mode, Asia is struggling for direction this morning, with Hong Kong and trade nerves weighing on sentiment. Given the momentum of the peak virus trade globally though, any dips are likely to be shallow.

The Nikkei 225 is 0.20% higher, and the Kospi is flat. Mainland China and Hong Kong exchanges are weighed down by trade and political tensions ahead of a National Anthem Bill passing through Hong Kong’s legislature today and fears over the new Beijing security laws. The Hang Seng has fallen 0.75%, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.35% and the CSI 300 lower by 0.55%.

Australia and New Zealand markets are concentrating on the bigger recovery picture, following strong rallies by their currencies overnight. The ASX 200 and NZD 50 are both 0.40% higher this morning.

The rotation out of US Dollars gathers pace.

The global recovery trade and the return of Wall Street saw the rotation out of haven US Dollar positioning gather pace overnight. The EUR/USD rose 0.80% to 1.0980, closing above its 100-day moving average and eyeing the 200-day moving average at 1.1010 today. GBP/USD rose an impressive 1.20% to 1.2325 overnight, setting the stage for a test of 1.2400 and potentially, further gains to 1.2600.

Trade-centric commodity currencies though, were the stars of the night. USD/CAD fell 1.50% to 1.3780, breaking two-month support at 1.3855, setting up further gains for the Canadian Dollar. AUDUSD rose by 1.70% to 0.6655, just below its 200-day moving average at 0.6660. A daily close above 0.6660 sets up further technical gains to the 0.6800 regions initially. NZD/USD rose 1.60% to 0.6200, just below its 100-day moving average. Like the AUD/USD, the Kiwi now appears set for higher levels.

Much the same trend was seen across the emerging markets space in general, with investors rotating into more risk-seeking positioning. The US Dollar weakness was also reflected in today’s PBOC CNY fix. The USD/CNY being set at 7.1092 versus 7.1293 yesterday.

Overall, currency markets appear to be begrudgingly awakening from their long slumber, unable to ignore the rallies in other asset markets any longer. As such, the US Dollar is likely to remain heavy for the rest of the week at least.

Oil consolidates its recent gains.

Oil had a quiet overnight session, content to finish modestly higher as both Brent crude and WTI consolidated their recent gains. Brent crude rose 1.35% to $36.10 a barrel. WTI rose 0.90% to $34.15 a barrel. Both contracts are unchanged in moribund Asian trading today.

Brent crude continues to eye the enormous gap on its charts between $40.00 and $45.00 a barrel, with the $40.00 regions initial resistance. A close above $40.00 a barrel sets up a technical rally to close that gap. WTI meanwhile has its 100-day moving average at $36.55 as an initial target.

With a 100% beta to global recovery sentiment and the peak-virus trade, oil has few reasons in the near term to see the rally falter. Perhaps the only blot on oil’s copybook is that speculative long positioning appears to be rising just as quickly as the sentiment. As we approach significant daily resistance on both contracts, the chances of short, but aggressive, corrective falls increases.

Gold also suffers as investors look elsewhere.

Sentiment appears to be turning rather quickly for gold, as investors rotate out of safe-haven positioning as national lockdowns end, and COVID-19 vaccine hopes rise. Gold’s technical outlook is further clouded by the large amounts of speculative long positioning added as it tested monthly resistance at $1750.00.

Gold fell by 1.05% overnight to $1611.00 an ounce, with the $1675.00 an ounce region the next layer of support. With currency markets finally climbing on board the peak-virus rally seen in equities and energy, the wolves would appear to be circling gold also.

Gold’s fundamentals still suggest that longer-term, it will yet again make new highs against a backdrop of enormous monetary easing by the world’s central banks, and the possible return of inflation in the Western world after a 20-year hiatus. That though. is a story for another day in the future. In the near-term, gold long positions look likely to suffer more pain.

Asia has seen gold rally initially but quickly retreat to unchanged levels from the New York close. That implies that there are plenty of nervous longs waiting to sell into any rally.

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Zinc Outlook 2022: Analysts Expect Small Refined Deficit

Click here to read the previous zinc outlook. After an uncertain 2020, zinc rose steadily in 2021, hitting a 14 year high in the second half of the year.The power crisis and increasing demand for the base metal as strict COVID-19-related lockdown restrict

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Click here to read the previous zinc outlook.

After an uncertain 2020, zinc rose steadily in 2021, hitting a 14 year high in the second half of the year.

The power crisis and increasing demand for the base metal as strict COVID-19-related lockdown restrictions were lifted supported prices for zinc during the 12 month period.

As the new year begins, the Investing News Network (INN) caught up with analysts to find out what’s ahead for zinc supply, demand and prices. Read on to learn what they had to say.


Zinc outlook 2022: 2021 in review


Zinc prices kicked off 2021 above the US$2,800 per tonne mark after rallying for most of the second half of 2020. A recovery in the steel sector helped the base metal throughout the first half of 2021 as COVID-19 lockdown measures eased, supporting demand for zinc.

Commenting on the main trends seen in the market in 2021, Helen O’Cleary of CRU Group told INN zinc’s demand recovery was stronger than expected in the US and Europe, but lagged in Asia excluding China.

In October, zinc prices hit their highest level in 14 years, hovering around the US$3,800 mark on the back of the power crisis and costs associated with carbon emissions.

“Zinc’s price outperformed expectations in 2021 on the back of strong demand and smelter disruption, particularly in Q4, when European smelters started to cut back due to record high energy prices,” O’Cleary said.

One of the world’s top zinc smelters, Nyrstar (EBR:NYR), said back in October that it was planning to cut production at its European smelter operations. Mining giant Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) also said it was adjusting production to reduce exposure to peak power pricing periods during the day.

Speaking with INN, Carlos Sanchez of CPM Group said zinc has been in recovery since prices bottomed out in 2020, helped in part by vaccination efforts globally and also by supply disruptions around the world.

“The most recent issue is the concern about high energy input costs into smelters in Europe — that's been pushing prices higher recently,” he said. Even though prices could not sustain that level until the end of the year, zinc remained above US$3,500 on the last trading day of 2021.

Zinc outlook 2022: Supply and demand


As mentioned, demand for base metals took an upward turn in 2021 as the world economy recovered on the back of stimulus plans and as vaccination rollouts took place in many parts of the world.

Looking at what’s ahead for zinc demand in 2022, CRU is expecting Chinese demand growth to slow to 1.1 percent year-on-year as the effects of stimulus wane.

“In the world ex-China we expect demand to grow by 2.4 percent, with the ongoing auto sector recovery partially offsetting the construction sector slowdown in Europe and the US,” O’Cleary said.

CPM is also expecting zinc demand to remain healthy in 2022, both inside and outside of China, including demand from developing countries. “One thing that remains uncertain is what will happen with COVID,” Sanchez said.

Moving onto the supply side of the picture, the analyst expects that if everything remains status quo, disruptions are unlikely to happen.

“There are going to be some blips here and there, but there have been some labor issues in Peru; yes, there's been some energy problems in Europe and China, but that's a fact in zinc output and in demand to an extent,” Sanchez said. “But really the catalyst that we don't know, and how it can affect prices, is how COVID will impact industries.”

For her part, O’Cleary is expecting most disruptions to happen in the first quarter, with CRU currently having a disruption allowance of 55,000 tonnes for that period.

“But this may well tip over into Q2,” she said. CRU is expecting mine supply to grow by 5.1 percent year-on-year in 2022, and for the concentrates market to register a 190,000 tonne surplus.

Meanwhile, smelter output is forecast to grow by less than 1 percent year-on-year in 2022, according to the firm, which is currently forecasting a small refined zinc deficit in 2022.

“Should smelter disruption exceed our 55,000 tonne allowance the deficit could grow,” O’Cleary said. “But high prices and a tight Chinese market could lead to further releases of refined zinc from the State Reserve Bureau stockpile, which could push the market towards balance or even a small surplus.”

Similarly, CPM is expecting the market to shift into a deficit in 2022. “That's due to the strong demand, recovering economies of COVID and its financial economic effects,” Sanchez said.

Zinc outlook 2022: What’s ahead


Commenting on how zinc might perform next year, O’Cleary said prices are likely to remain high in Q1 due to the threat of further energy-related cutbacks in Europe during the winter heating season.

O’Cleary suggested investors keep an eye on high prices and inflation, as they could hamper zinc demand growth.

Similarly, CPM expects prices to stay above current levels and to average around US$3,400 for the year. “I wouldn't be surprised to see zinc top US$4,000,” Sanchez said. “But at the same time, I don't think it holds above there; you'd have to have really strong fundamentals for that to happen, stronger than what's happening now.”

The CPM director suggested zinc investors should keep an eye on COVID-19 developments and be quick movers, taking a position whether it's short or long.

Looking ahead, FocusEconomics analysts see prices for zinc cooling markedly next year before falling further in 2023, as output gradually improves and new mines come online.

“Moreover, fading logistical disruptions and easing energy prices will exert additional downward pressure, although solid demand for steel will continue to support prices,” they said in their December report, adding that pandemic-related uncertainty is clouding the zinc outlook.

Panelists recently polled by the firm see prices averaging US$2,827 in Q4 2022, and US$2,651 in Q4 2023.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.

Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

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Dr. Peter McCullough: Official COVID “Narrative Has Crumbled”

Dr. Peter McCullough: Official COVID "Narrative Has Crumbled"

Authored by Art Moore via WND.com,

Dr. Peter McCullough – a renowned cardiologist and highly published medical scientist whose confrontation of the government’s COVID-19 policies.

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Dr. Peter McCullough: Official COVID "Narrative Has Crumbled"

Authored by Art Moore via WND.com,

Dr. Peter McCullough – a renowned cardiologist and highly published medical scientist whose confrontation of the government's COVID-19 policies has drawn more than 40 million views on Joe Rogan's podcast – told WND in a video interview Thursday night the official pandemic narrative that has been fiercely guarded by establishment media and social-media censors is "completely crumbling."

That narrative, he said, included "false statements regarding asymptomatic spread, reliance on lockdown and masks – which obviously didn't work – the suppression of early treatment, the mass promotion of vaccines that failed."

"And now here we are, almost in complete free fall," McCullough said, referring to the record number of COVID-19 cases as officials acknowledge the vaccines don't prevent infection or transmission.

McCullough noted that in California, with the more contagious but much milder omicron variant now dominant, health care workers who tested positive for COVID-19 and had symptoms were told to go back to work.

"With that, I think that's it. I think that's the end. The narrative has crumbled. People don't want these vaccines," McCullough said.

"The vaccines should be pulled off the market. They clearly are not solving the problem."

The focus, he said, should be on "treating high-risk patients who develop symptoms" with some of the early treatments that he and other physicians around the world have found to be effective, including ivermectin and a new drug granted emergency use authorization by the FDA, Paxlovid.

McCullough cited a study from Denmark and data from the U.K.'s health agency showing that the vaccines have zero effectiveness against omicron.

Completing this poll entitles you to WND news updates free of charge. You may opt out at anytime. You also agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

"That's not misinformation," he said. "I'm just quoting the data. All of this can be looked up. Fact-checkers can look at it. I know I'll never have any problems with allegations of misinformation, because I just quote the data."

President Biden clearly had McCullough in mind when on Thursday he urged social media companies and media outlets to "please deal with the misinformation and disinformation that's on your shows. It has to stop."

McCullough pointed out his work has been relied upon by courts across the nation, including the U.S. Supreme Court, and he has testified to the U.S. Senate and will be back there later this month.

"I think America knows who is giving them the straight story."

In the half-hour video interview with WND (embedded below), McCullough also discussed:

  • The punishment of physicians who counter the official COVID narrative and use clinically indicated, FDA-approved drugs off-label such as ivermectin to treat COVID-19 patients, including a colleague in Maine whose was ordered to undergo a psychological examination after her license was suspended;

  • His participation in a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 23 protesting vaccine mandates;

  • The Supreme Court's rulings Thursday on vaccine mandates;

  • The possibility that omicron could spell the end of the pandemic, serving as a "universal booster";

  • Data showing that vaccination has backfired, making the pandemic worse in nations with high vaccine intake;

  • The lethality of the mRNA vaccines;

  • His view on Biden's mass testing program;

  • His take on new FDA-approved treatments and his simple, inexpensive, over-the-counter protocol for treating omicron;

  • The unwillingness of so many doctors to "come off the sidelines" and treat patients for COVID-19;

  • The "crisis of competence" among top government health officials;

  • Where to find resources and support for physicians and patients, and for employees confronting mandates.

"I think Americans are going to understand that their individual choice is really what's going to matter in the end," he McCullough told WND in conclusion. "If Americans decide that they're not going to take any boosters or any more vaccines, it doesn't matter how many mandates or how many court decisions that happen. The vaccine program is going to crumble. I think it's just a matter of saying no."

He emphasized that the vaccines are still "research."

"No one can be forced into it," he said of vaccination. "And they're not turning out to be safe or effective. So, if  everybody just stands firm and declines the vaccines, I think that will be the quickest way for us to get out of this."

See the WND interview with Dr. Peter McCullough:

McCullough, in a video interview with WND in December, called for a "pivot" from the current policies to early treatment and "compassionate care" for those who have COVID or have suffered vaccine injuries, which have included myocarditis, neurological issues and blood clotting.

"Now is the time for doctors to step up. Now is not a time for rhetoric or harsh statements regarding scientific discourse," he said.

Many of McCullough's 600 peer-reviewed publications have appeared in top-tier journals such as the New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association and The Lancet. He testified to the U.S. Senate in November 2020 against what he described as the federal government's politicization of health care during the pandemic, curbing or blocking the availability of cheap, effective treatments. In a speech in September, he told of having been stripped of the editorship of a Swiss-based journal after having lost his position with a major health system, "with no explanation and no due process." Baylor University Medical Center fired him in February. And Texas A&M College of Medicine, Texas Christian University and University of North Texas Health Science Center School of Medicine have cut ties with McCullough, accusing him of spreading misinformation.

"I've been stripped of every title that I've ever had in that institution. I've received a threat letter from the American College of Physicians, [and] a threat letter from the American Board," he said in September.

All because of his "lawful" participation "in a topic of public importance."

He said there are "powerful forces at work, far more powerful than we can possibly think of, that are influencing anybody who is in a position of authority."

McCullough is the chief medical adviser for the Truth for Health Foundation, a physician-founded charity that says it is "dedicated to following the Oath of Hippocrates to serve individual patients to the best of our ability and judgement and to uphold the highest standards of medical ethics."

*  *  *

Last year, America's doctors, nurses and paramedics were celebrated as frontline heroes battling a fearsome new pandemic. Today, under Joe Biden, tens of thousands of these same heroes are denounced as rebels, conspiracy theorists, extremists and potential terrorists. Along with massive numbers of police, firemen, Border Patrol agents, Navy SEALs, pilots, air-traffic controllers, and countless other truly essential Americans, they're all considered so dangerous as to merit termination, their professional and personal lives turned upside down due to their decision not to be injected with the experimental COVID vaccines. Biden’s tyrannical mandate threatens to cripple American society – from law enforcement to airlines to commercial supply chains to hospitals. It's already happening. But the good news is that huge numbers of "yesterday’s heroes" are now fighting back – bravely and boldly. The whole epic showdown is laid out as never before in the sensational October issue of WND's monthly Whistleblower magazine, titled "THE GREAT AMERICAN REBELLION: 'We will not comply!' COVID-19 power grab ignites bold new era of national defiance."

SUPPORT TRUTHFUL JOURNALISM. MAKE A DONATION TO THE NONPROFIT WND NEWS CENTER. THANK YOU!

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/17/2022 - 23:50

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Zinc Outlook 2022: Small Refined Zinc Deficit Ahead

Click here to read the previous zinc outlook. Following an uncertain 2020, zinc prices steadily rose throughout 2021 to hit a 14 year high in the second half of the year.The power crisis and an increasing demand for the base metal as the strict lockdown..

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Click here to read the previous zinc outlook.

Following an uncertain 2020, zinc prices steadily rose throughout 2021 to hit a 14 year high in the second half of the year.

The power crisis and an increasing demand for the base metal as the strict lockdown restrictions were lifted supported prices during the 12 month period.

As the new year begins, the Investing News Network (INN) caught up with analysts to find out what’s ahead for zinc supply, demand and prices.


Zinc outlook 2022: 2021 in review


Prices kicked off the year above the US$2,800 per tonne mark after rallying for most of the second half of 2020. The recovery in the steel sector helped the base metal throughout the first half of 2021 as COVID-19 lockdown measures eased, supporting demand for zinc.

Commenting on the main trends seen in the market in 2021, Helen O’Cleary of CRU Group told INN zinc’s demand recovery was stronger than expected in the US and Europe but lagged in Asia excluding China.

In October, zinc prices hit their highest level in 14 years, hovering around the US$3,800 mark on the back of the power crisis and cost associated with carbon emissions.

“Zinc’s price outperformed expectations in 2021 on the back of strong demand and smelter disruption, particularly in Q4 when European smelters started to cut back due to record high energy prices,” O’Cleary said.

One of the world’s top zinc smelters, Nyrstar (EBR:NYR), said in October it was planning to cut production at its European smelter operations. Mining giant Glencore (LSE:GLEN) also said it was adjusting production to reduce exposure to peak power pricing periods during the day.

Speaking with INN about zinc’s performance, Carlos Sanchez of CPM Group said zinc has been in recovery since prices bottomed out in 2020, helped in part by vaccination globally and also by supply disruptions around the world.

“The most recent issue is the concern about high energy input costs into smelters in Europe — that's been pushing prices higher recently,” he said.

Even though prices could not sustain that level until the end of the year, prices remained above US$3,500 on the last trading day of 2021.

Zinc outlook 2022: Supply and demand


As mentioned, demand for base metals saw an upward turn in 2021 as the world economy recovered on the back of stimulus plans and as vaccination rollouts took place in many parts of the world.

Looking at what’s ahead for demand in 2022, CRU is expecting Chinese demand growth to slow to 1.1 percent year-on-year as the effects of stimulus wane.

“In the world ex. China we expect demand to grow by 2.4 percent, with the ongoing auto sector recovery partially offsetting the construction sector slowdown in Europe and the US,” O’Cleary said.

CPM is also expecting demand to remain healthy in 2022, both in China and outside of China, including demand from developing countries.

“One thing that remains uncertain is what will happen with COVID,” Sanchez said.

Moving onto the supply side of the picture, the analyst expects that if everything remains status quo, disruptions are unlikely to happen.

“There are going to be some blips here and there, but there have been some labor issues in Peru, yes, there's been some energy problems in Europe and China, but that's a fact in zinc output and in demand to an extent,” Sanchez said. “But really the catalysts that we don't know, and how it can affect prices is how COVID will impact industries.”

For her part, O’Cleary is expecting most disruptions in Q1, with CRU currently having a disruption allowance of 55,000 tonnes for that period.

“But this may well tip over into Q2,” she said. CRU is expecting mine supply to grow by 5.10 percent year-on-year in 2022 and for the concentrates market to register a 190,000 tonnes surplus.

Meanwhile, smelter output is forecast to grow by less than 1 percent year-on-year in 2022, according to the firm, which is currently forecasting a small refined zinc deficit in 2022.

“Should smelter disruption exceed our 55,000 t allowance the deficit could grow,” O’Cleary said. “But high prices and a tight Chinese market could lead to further releases of refined zinc from the State Reserves Bureau stockpile, which could push the market towards balance or even a small surplus.”

Similarly, CPM Group is also expecting the market to shift into a deficit in 2022.

“That's due to the strong demand, recovering economies of COVID and its financial economic effects,” Sanchez said.

Zinc outlook 2022: What’s ahead


Commenting on how prices might perform next year, O’Cleary said prices are likely to remain high in Q1 due to the threat of further energy-related cutbacks in Europe during the winter heating season.

O’Cleary suggested investors to keep an eye on high prices and inflation, as these factors could hamper zinc demand growth.

Similarly, CPM Group is expecting prices to remain above current levels and to average around US$3,400 for the year.

“I wouldn't be surprised to see zinc top US$4,000,” Sanchez said. “But at the same time, I don't think it holds above there; you'd have to have really strong fundamentals for that to happen, stronger than what's happening now.”

The CPM director suggested zinc investors should keep an eye on COVID developments and be quick movers, taking a position whether it's short or long.

Looking ahead, for FocusEconomics analysts, prices for zinc are seen cooling markedly next year before falling further in 2023, as output gradually improves and new mines come online.

“Moreover, fading logistical disruptions and easing energy prices will exert additional downward pressure, although solid demand for steel will continue to support prices,” they said in their December report, adding that pandemic-related uncertainty clouds the outlook.

Panelists recently polled by the firm see prices averaging US$2,827 per metric tonne in Q4 2022 and US$2,651 per metric tonne in Q4 2023.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.

Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

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