Bitcoin is holding above $26,500 and the price stability could lead traders to take a second look at SOL, LDO, ICP and VET.

The S&P 500 Index nudged higher by 0.45% to record its second positive week. While the United States equities markets were a slow mover, gold witnessed a massive run-up of more than 5% this week. Its rally of 3.11% on Oct. 13 was its best one-day performance since Dec. 1 of last year. However, the Bitcoin (BTC) bulls did not have any such luck as Bitcoin is on track to end the week down more than 3%.

Bitcoin’s weakness and the regulatory overhang have kept crypto investors away from altcoins. That has kept Bitcoin’s market dominance hovering near the 50% mark for the past few days.

Market observers are likely to keep their focus on Bitcoin for the next few days. The longer the bulls sustain the price above $25,000, the greater the possibility that the next move is likely to be higher. A bullish move in Bitcoin is likely to spur buying in select altcoins as crypto investors will then sense a bull market.

Select cryptocurrencies are showing signs of forming a base. If they breakout to the upside, a new up-move may start. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that could outperform in the near term.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been trading between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.

Usually, a tight consolidation is followed by a range expansion. In this case, if buyers kick the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($27,110), the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $28,143. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level. 

Alternatively, if the price turns down and dives below the 50-day simple moving average ($26,671), it will signal that bears have asserted their supremacy. The pair may first drop to $25,990 and thereafter to the pivotal support at $24,800. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls.

The pair’s recovery is facing selling at the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers are not rushing to the exit and are keeping up the pressure.

If the 20-EMA is taken out, the pair could first rise to the 50-SMA. This level may act as a minor barrier but if overcome, the pair could climb to $27,750 and then to $28,143.

On the contrary, if the bulls fail to pierce the 20-EMA, the sellers will sense an opportunity to pull the price lower. A dump below $26,500 could sink the pair to $26,000 and then to $24,800.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($21.77). This suggests that the bulls are trying to flip this level into support.

There is a minor resistance at $22.50 but if this level is crossed, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break and close above this resistance will complete the bullish setup. Buyers may face a stiff resistance at $27.12 but if this hurdle is cleared, the pair could surge to the target objective at $32.81.

This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and plunges below the 50-day SMA ($20.50). That could start a descent toward $18.58 and then to $15.33.

After trading between the moving averages for some time, the price resolved to the downside with a break below the 20-EMA. This indicates that the bears may remain in control. The pair could first fall to $20.93 and if this level also cracks, the pair may collapse to $20.

Conversely, if the price fails to sustain below the 20-EMA, it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 50-SMA. That could open the doors for a rally to $23.50 and then to the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern.

Lido DAO price analysis

Lido DAO (LDO) has been trading near the moving averages for the past few days, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip.

The moving averages have flattened out and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The immediate resistance on the upside is $1.73. If this level is scaled, the LDO/USDT pair could climb to the downtrend line. This level is again likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and skids below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are in command and are selling on every minor rally. The pair may then retest the vital support at $1.38.

The 20-EMA has started to turn up on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is in the positive area, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. There is a minor resistance at $1.63 but it is likely to be crossed. The pair could then rise to $1.73.

If bears want to weaken the bullish momentum, they will have to quickly drag the price back below the moving averages. The pair could then slump to the $1.45 to $1.50 support zone.

Related: Bitcoin traders eye weekly close volatility with $27K BTC price on radar

Internet Computer price analysis

Internet Computer (ICP) has been consolidating in a tight range between $2.86 and $3.35 for the past several days.

The RSI has formed a positive divergence, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. The ICP/USDT pair could next reach the overhead resistance at $3.35. A break and close above this level will signal a potential trend change. The first target on the upside is $4 and then $4.50.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $3.35, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for some more time. A slide below $2.86 will indicate the resumption of the downtrend.

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the overbought zone on the 4-hour chart. This indicates that the buyers have the upper hand. The pair is likely to reach the overhead resistance at $3.35 where the bears may to pose a strong challenge.

If the price turns down from $3.35, the consolidation may continue for a while longer. On the other hand, if buyers kick the price above $3.35, it will indicate that the bulls are in charge. The pair may then soar to $3.74 and later to the pattern target of $3.84.

VeChain price analysis

VeChain (VET) has been trading inside a descending triangle for the past few days. Although this is a negative pattern, the price has been clinging to the downtrend line for the past few days, which is a positive sign.

The moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the bearish pressure may be reducing. Buyers will try to propel the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed, it will invalidate the negative setup. That could start a new up-move toward $0.021.

Instead, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears continue to defend the downtrend line with vigor. The bears will then again try to pull the price to the critical support at $0.014.

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been trading inside the falling wedge pattern. Buyers are trying to push and sustain the price above the 50-SMA. If they do that, the VET/USDT pair could reach the downtrend line of the wedge. A break and close above the wedge could start a new up-move.

The bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will aggressively defend the zone between the 50-SMA and the downtrend line. If the price turns down sharply and slides below the 20-EMA, it will indicate that the pair may remain inside the wedge for some more time.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Read More

A hook that enables Know Your Customer (KYC) verification on Uniswap V4 pools is fueling debates about DeFi's future.

A new hook available on an open-source directory for Uniswap V4 hooks is sparking controversy within the crypto community. The hook enables users to be checked for Know Your Customer (KYC) before they can trade on a pool.

Criticizing the hook, a user at X (formerly Twitter) noted that the hook opens up the possibility of decentralized finance protocols being whitelisted by regulators:

"As I explained in all my posts for the past year: It starts with “kyc option” for LPs. And then eventually it moves into a “regulator whitelist approved” database hosted offchain. And then non-kyc gets labeled as illegal terrorist money laundering. Stop simping for soyboys."

Essentially, a hook is a tool that allows developers to customize a code without altering the main structure of the program. In Uniswap V4, this hook will permit developers to use KYC verification within the decentralized finance protocol.

Financial institutions use KYC procedures to authenticate customer identities and assess associated risks. A primary goal of KYC is to detect money laundering and terrorist financing activities.

The KYC hook was rolled out by a community developer on Uniswap V4's directory as an opt-in functionality. The KYC verification is carried out by a nonfungible token (NFT). According to another X user, the hook is specific for liquidity providers and may be useful for projects that must comply with regulatory requirements in certain jurisdictions:

"Seems like you don't understand how this works. #1 it's lp specific. Some projects may want to operate within the legal confines of jurisdiction. #2 hooks can be made by community devs. You're trashing something that has done more than anyone else for "real defi"."

Governments around the world are taking a closer look at DeFi protocols and transactions. Recently, the group of twenty worlds' largest economies, G20, accepted a crypto regulatory roadmap proposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) tightening crypto regulations.

Uniswap V4 introduces customizable hooks and is expected to be available in early 2024, with access limited to governance-approved entities.

Magazine: Recursive inscriptions — Bitcoin ‘supercomputer’ and BTC DeFi coming soon

Read More

I’ve been looking at the Canadian Convertible Debentures that are scheduled to mature between now and December 31, 2023. Some observations:

Medexus (TSX: MDP.DB, October 16, 2023 maturity) – This will mature on Monday for a cash payment at 125 of par (a very unique offering). To be honest, this one surprised me in that I was expecting some sort of distressed debt situation, but the company managed to scrape enough pennies together through a newly minted credit facility in early March 2023, some decent financial results posted on June 2023 and finally a secondary equity offering that concluded a week ago – striking while the equity was hot. Management navigated this whirlpool quite well, and at 24 employees, each person’s individual effort really counts for these types of companies. Before they get delisted I’ll post their chart, again noting that payout at maturity is 125 of par:

The rest are December 31, 2023 maturities:

Aecon Group (TSX: ARE.DB.C) – $184 million due. The company has a $600 million credit facility, of which $188 million was drawn out on June 30, 2023. Conversion is at $24/share and the stock is at $10.59/share, so very likely a cash maturity. Even a mediocre execution in the next six months will not result in these debentures getting in trouble and hence the 99% of par trading price at present. This engineering firm has been kind of lost since the Canadian government shot down its acquisition by a Chinese national firm many years back, but they continue to meander along despite being in a market where there is going to be plenty of demand going forward. The problem is that engineering firms need to retain talented individuals that need enough motivation to stay in such firms, which facilitates both the precise costing and execution of projects. It is one thing to get contract wins, it is another thing entirely to discover that your costing is so out of whack that in order to execute on such projects that you’re going to be losing money. A great example of this is the construction of the North Vancouver sewage plant which appears to be a case of a company being completely out of its depth.

Firm Capital (TSX: FC.DB.G) – $22.5 million due. Conversion is $15.25 with the stock price at $9.80. Firm Capital has many issues of convertible debentures outstanding at various maturities, trading roughly 4-5% above the government yield curve. The company proactively sent out a financial release on September 19, 2023 which attempted to reassure the market that despite their mortgage portfolio outstanding shrinking in size, that they are solvent. In particular, a $180 million credit facility remains untapped and combined with cash, this is comfortably facilitating a cash maturity of this particular issue. However, it is pretty clear that FC is going to have to make some tough choices – they traditionally have funded their loans through convertible debentures at really cheap coupons – the latest ones (FC.DB.K, FC.DB.L) were a combined $90 million out for 5 years with a 5% coupon with a conversion price well out of the money ($17.75 and $17.00/share!) – the last offering was done in January 2022 and this was PERFECT timing by management – there is no chance at all of them doing this again in the current rate environment.

Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT (TSX: NWH.DB.G) – $125 million due. Conversion is $13.35/unit with a current unit price of $4.57. The quick summary here is that the trust is in serious financial trouble. I remember this REIT being one of these “dividend starlings” that the usual retail crowd hyped up on financial twitter and the like, and unless if management is skillful, this one is potentially heading down to a zero. With specific regard to the ability to redeem this debenture, the trust is hitting a financial limit with its term facility (on June 30, 2023 there is $165 million available to be drawn). The minutiae in their last quarterly filing includes distressed paragraphs like this:

On August 2, 2023, the REIT executed an interim non-revolving tranche under its revolving credit facility to increase availability by $50.0 million. The tranche matures in October 2023 and can be extended until January 2024 under certain circumstances. The facility is secured by certain assets in the REIT’s Americas portfolio and it bears interest ranging from 10.6% to 13.8%.

… 10.6% to 13.8%! Ouch!

Subsequent to June 30, 2023, the REIT extended the maturity date of its revolving unsecured credit facility with an outstanding balance of $125.0 million credit facility by one year to November 2024, The facility bears interest ranging from 8.73% to 10.01% (previously 8.23% to 9.51%).

Banks are ratcheting the screws on the trust…

They released a September 22, 2023 financial update trying to assure the market that with some “non-core” asset sales coupled with some other measures they are “fortifying” the balance sheet, but there is indeed a danger that this convertible debenture will be partly redeemed in units by the company. While writing this post, I notice the “fantastic” SEDAR Plus is down for maintenance so I could not confirm directly that the indenture allows for this, but a previous MD&A does allude to this being an option for the company. The two other outstanding convertible debenture issues (maturing roughly in 4 years) are trading at a YTM of 12.5% so refinancing is not going to be in the cards for this REIT. My guess is that they squeeze out a cash maturity but good luck in the future!

Read More