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Election Day: Futures, Oil Soar As Americans Hit The Polls

Election Day: Futures, Oil Soar As Americans Hit The Polls

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Election Day: Futures, Oil Soar As Americans Hit The Polls Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2020 - 07:53

US equity futures, global stocks and crude oil surged for a second day on Tuesday as a "gust of optimism" swept across global equity markets as millions of Americans headed to vote. The dollar tumbled amid rising bets on FX vol while yields rose.

Emini were up 39 points, or 1.2% to 3,340, up almost 120 points from Sunday night lows. PayPal dropped 4.8% after it forecast current-quarter profit below expectations. Shares of big U.S. banks including Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which are sensitive to the economic outlook, gained between 1.4% and 2% in premarket trading, boosted by a steeper yield curve. The VIX retreated for a second day after touching a 20-week high last week on surging coronavirus cases globally.

"The election outcome will drive all markets over the next day or two," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management told Bloomberg. “How they move depends on the extent to which we have clarity about the results.”

After slumping to five-week lows last week, the S&P 500, and to a lesser extent the Nasdaq, began November on a strong footing amid rising bets that a decisive blue sweep today could hopes of a bigger stimulus package after the election, even though the latest PredictIt odds for a Democratic Sweep (Biden + Dem Senate) remains just a fraction above a coin toss.

"Currently, the market is betting on a Biden win,” said Christian Stocker, UniCredit’s lead equity sector strategist. “Under a Biden presidency, the U.S. economy should be more supportive for equity markets - an economy with more stimulus programs will be perfect for the outperformance of cyclical sectors." Of course, analysts unanimously predicted a market crash if Trump wins in 2016 and everyone knows what happened next: the S&P has surged about 55% since Trump clinched a "shock" victory in 2016 as lower tax rates under his administration boosted corporate profits. Much of that will be undone by a Biden admin.

At the same time, traders hedged prospects of post-vote volatility, pushing a measure of expected swings in China’s yuan to its highest level in more than nine years.

Still, the competition in swing states is seen as close enough that Republican President Donald Trump could still piece together the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to stay in the White House for another four years. In fact, the latest RCP battleground states tracker show that the spread between the two candidates is the closest it has been.

Investors are also bracing for wild market swings in case there is no immediate outcome on Tuesday night due to a protracted ballot count or a disputed result.

Then, once the U.S. election passes, investors will contend with the Federal Reserve delivering a policy decision Thursday before the October jobs report Friday. 

Looking at global markets, European shares extended their recovery rally on Tuesday helped by the sliding dollar with investors putting coronavirus worries on the back burner for now, as attention turned to the U.S. presidential election. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.7%, bouncing off five-month lows hit last week on worries over new partial lockdowns across the continent. Growth-sensitive cyclical sectors such as oil and gas , miners, banks and automakers led the rally - all rising more than 2%.

Among individual stocks, French bank BNP Paribas gained 5.5% as a surge in currency and commodity trading helped it beat quarterly profit expectations. Fashion house Hugo Boss jumped 6.7% after it reported a return to profitability in the third quarter and said it was focused on driving a recovery of its business online and in China. Shares in German meal-kit delivery company HelloFresh , which has more than doubled in value this year due to strong demand on the back of the pandemic, fell 3.5% after quarterly results. Bayer slipped 1.0% as it took impairment charges of 9.25 billion euros ($10.79 billion) and warned of higher costs from its settlement over claims that its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer.

A Biden win is widely considered supportive for European equities on expectations of a bigger stimulus package and better trade ties with the United States: "It’s reflation trade for European stocks,” said Christian Stocker, UniCredit’s lead equity sector strategist. “Currently, the market is betting on a Biden win. Under a Biden presidency, the U.S. economy should be more supportive for equity markets - an economy with more stimulus programmes will be perfect for the outperformance of cyclical sectors."

However, Stocker does not expect the gains to last long as coronavirus cases increase at an alarming rate in Europe, pushing major economies like Germany, France and the United Kingdom to reimpose tighter restrictions and causing economists to cut fourth-quarter economic growth expectations.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Index added 1.4%. Japan's markets were closed for a holiday. Asian stocks gained led by the materials and energy sectors, after climbing in the last session. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex-Japan members was 13% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4%, driven by Kweichow Moutai and China Life.

Boosting reflation trades, oil held gains after jumping the most in three weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts. WTI futures rose as much as 3.2% to $38/bbl in New York, and was trading 2.1% higher. Brent also gained as much as 2.9% to reach $40.10.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set for its biggest decline in more than three weeks. The euro rose toward $1.17 and overnight volatility in euro-dollar surged to the highest level since March. Currency options traders are betting that the U.S. election outcome won’t be a game-changer for the euro, at least in terms of immediate market reactions. Commodity currencies led Group-of-10 gains, with the Norwegian krone advancing the most, as oil prices rose on broader risk-on sentiment and as OPEC+ inched closer to delaying a planned easing of output cuts. The Australian dollar bounced, after earlier falling against all G-10 peers after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates and expanded its quantitative easing program. The nation’s benchmark bond yields extended a decline.

In rates, the treasuries curve resumed bear-steepening as investors sought riskier assets with long-end yields cheaper by nearly 3bps. Large block sale in Ultra 10-year note futures during London morning further weighed. Yields were cheaper by 0.5bp to 3.5bp across the curve, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s by 2.5bp and 1.9bp; 10-year yields around 0.87% after topping at 0.879%, cheapest since June. Treasuries outperformed bunds and gilts by ~0.5bp and 1bp respectively.

Looking at the day ahead, though all eyes will be on the US election, there’ll also be data on US factory orders and durable goods for September and the ECB’s Knot will be speaking. Eaton Corp. and Sysco are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.4% to 3,347.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 352.70
  • MXAP up 1% to 175.45
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 584.09
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 23,295.48
  • Topix up 1.8% to 1,607.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 24,939.73
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,271.07
  • Sensex up 1.3% to 40,254.98
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 6,066.36
  • Kospi up 1.9% to 2,343.31
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to -0.616%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.1695
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.636%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.135%
  • Brent futures up 3.6% to $40.39/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,898.56
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.5% to 93.66

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Twitter Inc. put a warning label on a post by Trump claiming that a Supreme Court decision allowing an extension for counting votes in Pennsylvania would lead to cheating and induce violence
  • Large parts of Europe are preparing for tougher measures to fight the pandemic: U.S. Prime Minster Boris Johnson said there is “no alternative” to imposing a coronavirus lockdown across England to stop the health service being overwhelmed, as he revealed plans for whole cities to be tested to root-out asymptomatic carriers of the disease
  • The Italian government is readying new relief funding of at least 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) for businesses affected by a coming wave of new shutdowns to combat the spread of Covid-19, people familiar with the matter said
  • Starting Nov. 5, the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin purchasing Australian Government securities and securities issued by the state and territory central borrowing authorities in the secondary market under the A$100 billion bond purchase program
  • President Donald Trump’s and Democrat nominee Joe Biden’s campaigns claimed the inside track to victory on election eve, but girded their supporters to prepare for a photo finish in the hotly contested presidential contest
  • The virus continued its unrelenting surge across the U.S., with cases soaring in key battleground states ahead of the presidential election. France reported record daily cases as large parts of Europe prepare for tougher measures to fight the pandemic
  • Oil edged higher after jumping the most in three weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts
  • Gold held an advance to trade near $1,900 an ounce ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. election as uncertainty boosted demand for the haven asset
  • The European Central Bank’s emergency bond purchases decelerated to the slowest pace on record last week, a sign that market demand for more stimulus is waning amid a rally in the region’s government debt

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets were higher across the board after following suit from the gains on Wall St where all major indices were lifted heading into the US election as polls continued to point to a Biden win and with stronger than expected global PMI data also adding to the constructive risk tone. ASX 200 (+1.9%) rallied throughout the session amid the RBA policy meeting where the central bank delivered a package of loosening measures including cutting key rates by 15bps as expected and a AUD 100bln boost to QE, with the broad upside led by the energy sector after oil prices rebounded on reports that Russia is considering postponing the tapering in OPEC+ cuts until the end of Q1. KOSPI (+1.9%) was also buoyed as participants shrugged off a negative inflation print and mixed vehicle sales data from South Korea’s top 2 automakers, while LG Display was among the notable gainers amid reports it is to supply mini-LEDs for Apple’s iPad. Hang Seng (+1.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) conformed to the upbeat risk tone after a mild liquidity injection by the PBoC and as all regional bourses joined the global rising tide, aside from Japanese markets which remained closed in observance of Culture Day.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia Holds Key Rate at Record-Low as Virus Threatens Growth
  • Oil Giant Aramco Keeps Dividend Despite 45% Slump in Profit
  • Australia’s RBA Cuts Rates, Announces A$100 Billion Bond Buying
  • Thailand Approaches Former PMs to Head Reconciliation Panel

European cash equities trade with strong gains across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.9%) after the region picked up the bullish APAC baton and as traders gear up for the US Presidential Election (full cheat sheet available in the Research Suite), with the latest betting odds from Betfair Exchange suggesting a rise in Trump’s re-election chances to 39% from 35%, whilst FiveThirtyEight overnight projected a Biden win at 89% vs. 10% for President Trump. Back to Europe, major bourses mostly experience broad-based gains with modest outperformance seen in the France’s CAC 40 (+2.1%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.2%) amid a firm performance in the banking sector - after BNP Paribas (+5.5%) posted a +30% YY increase in FICC revenues on the back of a “sharp rise in credit,” alongside a “rebound in forex and emerging markets and a good performance of rates.” As such, this has lifted the regional banking sector which resides as one of the top performers alongside the Basic Resources and Oil & Gas sectors, with the latter on account of rising oil prices. The other end of the spectrum sees some of the more defensive sectors including Health Care lagging on account of the overall risk-appetite, albeit Travel and Leisure continues to bear the brunt of the impact from nationwide lockdowns in Europe. In terms of individual movers, earnings see Pandora (+4%) and Hugo Boss (+4.8%) higher, with the latter also flagging “exceptionally strong” Chinese business in October. Looking at some M&A updates, Suez (+0.6%) failed to materially benefit from Veolia (+2.0%) confirming its intention to make a public takeover bid for Suez at EUR 18/shr. This came after Veolia announced around a month ago a 29.9% stake acquisition from Engie at the same price. Meanwhile, G4S (+4%) rejected the takeover proposal from Allied Universal.

Top European News

  • U.K. Boosts Testing as Johnson Seeks Lockdown Exit Strategy
  • Dutch Fall for Covid Conspiracies in Warning to Europe’s Leaders
  • Italy Is Said to Ready $1.8 Billion in New Aid as Shutdowns Loom
  • London Has to Shelve Cross-City Rail Line to Secure Tube Bailout

In FX, another bullish session in prospect for stocks, oil and other risk assets has enticed Buck bears back out of the woods, while the looming Presidential vote outcome is also keeping the Greenback on tenterhooks. Indeed, the DXY has faded just above 94.000 and ahead of Monday’s 94.285 peak to post a deeper low at 93.622 vs yesterday’s 93.871 base in the run up to relatively secondary US releases that fill the void before the primary issue is known or the vote proves too close to declare and is contested.

  • AUD – The Aussie has reclaimed all and more of its knee-jerk post-RBA losses even though dovish expectations were exceeded by the Central Bank cutting the benchmark rate, 3 year yield target and TFF by 15 bp to 0.1%, while lowering the rate for Exchange Settlements to zero and unveiling a new Aud 100 bn QE remit for an initial 6 months and aimed at 5-10 year bonds. However, Aud/Usd has spiked from the low 0.7000 zone all the up to and just beyond 0.7100, while the Aud/Nzd cross has staged a firmer rebound from closer to 1.0600 towards 1.0675 as the Kiwi lags ahead of 0.6700 vs its US counterpart in advance of NZ labour data.
  • CAD/GBP/EUR/CHF – Also forging gains largely at the expense of their US rival, but the Loonie also deriving more momentum from the ongoing recovery in oil as it probes through 1.3150 before Canadian trade on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sterling is within striking distance of 1.3000 again and retesting 0.9000 offers/resistance against the Euro amidst unconfirmed reports that EU officials may have made a key concession to the UK on zonal attachment methodology in respect of fishing rights. Nevertheless, the single currency is equally close to 1.1700 vs the Dollar having breached the 100 DMA at 1.1661 and the Franc has pared declines from sub-0.9200 to 0.9160+ following in line Swiss CPI readings.
  • JPY – The G10 underperformer, albeit without local sponsorship as Japanese markets celebrate Culture Day, as the Yen fails to sustain gains above 104.50 due to the aforementioned pick-up in risk appetite on the second day of November.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue their upward trajectory in early EU hours following an overnight session of consolidation, with prices underpinned by sentiment and feeling a second wind from Russia’s comments yesterday which suggested the largest non-OPEC producer is actively discussing rolling over current output curbs through Q1 2021 as opposed to a wind-down from January. In terms of upcoming meetings, the JTC and JMMC are set to meet on Nov 16/17th – with source reports/leaks likely heading into and during the events, followed by the decision-making OPEC/OPEC+ meetings on Nov 30th/Dec 1st. Over in the Gulf of Mexico, operations are resuming following the passing of Hurricane Zeta, with BSEE’s latest estimate suggesting 28% (Prev. 46%) of oil and 16% (Prev. 20%) of natgas production still shut in. Price action in the crude complex will likely be dictated by overall market sentiment heading into election, barring any OPEC-specific headlines and the weekly Private Inventory report. WTI Dec and Brent Jan hover off session highs around 38/bbl (vs. low USD 36.57/bbl) and USD 40/bbl (vs. low 38.65/bbl) respectively. Elsewhere spot gold and spot silver benefit from the Dollar’s decline despite the earlier positive correlation, with the yellow metal retesting USD 1900/oz to the upside at the time of writing, whilst spot silver regained a footing above USD 24/oz. Finally, LME copper trades firmer as the red metal coattails on risk appetite and benefits from the softer Dollar.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 1.0%, prior 0.7%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.55%, prior 0.7%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.3%
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.5m, prior 16.3m

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US Election Day is finally here. It comes 9 months after the first primaries were held back in February, and caps off an astonishing campaign that has witnessed the arrival and spread of Covid-19, the end of the longest-ever economic expansion, racial unrest throughout the country, and the installation of a new Supreme Court Justice in near record time. And as well as the all-important presidential race, congressional elections for both the House of Representatives and the Senate are also taking place today that will have a major impact on the ability of the new president to enact their agenda.

To give you the context heading into tonight, the final polling averages place former Vice President Biden clearly ahead of President Trump, with an +8.4pt lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, and a +6.7pt lead in RealClearPolitics’ one. And for reference, that’s noticeably larger than the lead Hillary Clinton had in polling averages back in 2016 (around +3pts). Nevertheless, the US President is determined not by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, and it’s true to say that matters are somewhat tighter there than the national polling would imply, since Mr. Biden’s lead in the likely tipping-point state of Pennsylvania is just +4.5pts and +2.6pts in the two averages.

In terms of timings, the first polls will close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 11:30pm London time, but given neither of these are battleground states, the real action will begin at midnight when polls close in Georgia as well as parts of Florida. Then at half past midnight, we’ll begin to get results from the other swing states of Ohio and North Carolina, before 01:00 sees polls close in Pennsylvania along with the rest of Florida. If Mr. Biden were to take any of Florida, Ohio or North Carolina it would likely be game-over for President Trump, as all 3 states are critical to Mr. Trump’s map in a way they simply aren’t for Mr. Biden. Florida is also a must-watch as mail-in votes there must be received by Election Day, so all the early ballots cast are expected to be tabulated by 01:30, meaning that we could have a winner declared by 05:00 tomorrow morning in what is a critical state for the president.

However, if Mr. Trump is ahead in those three states (FL, OH, NC) or running competitively, attention will likely turn to the Midwestern states and Pennsylvania, as he’ll need some further wins here in order to reach the winning line of 270 electoral votes. But in Pennsylvania, two counties that account for 117k requested mail-in ballots have already said they won’t begin to count those ballots until tomorrow, so if it does come down to the result there, it could be some days before we know the final outcome. So whether we’ll be able to bring you the results in tomorrow’s EMR will all depend on how close the election is. In the last 3 elections, we either had the result by morning or the writing was very clearly on the wall as to which candidate would emerge victorious. If it’s a repeat of 2000, however, it could be over a month before we actually know who the next president is.

From a market perspective, it’s important to remember that it’s not just the presidential result that matters, but also who controls both houses of Congress, as that will affect the ability of the new president to pass legislation, not least on whether we’ll get a major stimulus package in Q1 of next year. While the House of Representatives is seen as an incredibly likely win for the Democrats (97% in the FiveThirtyEight Model), their chances in the Senate stand at a noticeably lower 74%, so there remains the possibility that we could get a Republican Senate alongside a Biden White House. Indeed, our US economists view that as the most negative outcome for growth next year, because Republican senators would likely remain resistant to a big fiscal package, as they’ve already done in recent weeks even with Mr. Trump in the White House. This contrasts with their view on a Democratic sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress, which they see as providing the most fiscal stimulus to the economy next year. So it’s clear that control of the Senate will be critical to the policy mix we can expect to see in 2021.

Currently the Senate is split 53-47 to the Republicans, and in the event of a 50-50 tie, the Vice President casts the deciding vote. So that means to win control of the chamber, the Democrats would need to take a further 3 seats if Mr. Biden wins the presidency, and 4 seats if President Trump is re-elected. With Democrats likely to lose a seat in Alabama, the five key races to watch for Senate control will be in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. It’s also worth noting that in Georgia, one of the races is a special election in which numerous candidates are running from both parties (no primary election took place) and none are expected to get the 50% + 1 votes needed to avoid a runoff under Georgia rules. The other Senate race in the state is also very close, with a chance of a third-party candidate keeping the winner under 50%, triggering a runoff as well. Those runoffs wouldn’t take place until January 5, so in the event that control of the Senate were not clear, then majority control could come down to runoff elections in a single state in January.

In the graph in the body of today’s EMR we show the three-day intra-day move of 10-year treasuries and the US dollar between election day and the day after the results came through. Interestingly between polls closing and 13:00 the day following the election, 10-year US treasuries sold off nearly 40bps as the market fear over a Trump victory turned exceptionally quickly to one of reflation. 10 days after the election they were +64bps higher than the intra-day Asian market lows on election night. That we haven’t actually got inflation is an interesting postscript but could this election be the tipping point to genuine MMT? The point of the graph is to indicate that big moves can happen around such events. Although we don’t have the Asian session data from 4-years ago, S&P futures fell -5% overnight on election night in the initial response to Mr. Trump’s victory, causing circuit breakers to pause trading, before sharply rallying to finish the day +6.1% higher than these lows.

Ahead of this critical election for markets, global equity indices rebounded yesterday as they recovered from last week’s sell-off, and by the close the S&P 500 had risen +1.23% as part of a broad-based rally that saw nearly 90% of the index move higher. Tech struggled to keep pace with the NASDAQ moving between gains and losses before finishing up +0.42%. Volatility remained elevated, however, amidst the uncertainty over both the election and Covid-19, and the VIX index fell just -0.9pts to 37.1pts, which is still above its closing levels throughout the entirety of Q3. Over in Europe meanwhile, indices saw even larger advances, and the Stoxx 600 (+1.61%), the DAX (+2.01%) and the CAC 40 (+2.11%) all performed strongly.

The strong performance extended across multiple asset classes, with sovereign bonds rallying on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -3.0bps to 0.843%, while those on bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and gilts (-4.3bps) similarly declined. For bund yields, that decline took them to their lowest level since March, and over in southern Europe, yields on Spanish debt also fell -1.4bps to a 1-year low.

Asian markets have tracked Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Hang Seng (+2.08%), Shanghai Comp (+1.13%), Kospi (+1.45%) and ASX (+1.93%) all up. S&P 500 futures are also up +0.42% ahead of the election. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. In Fx, the Australian dollar is down -0.21% as the RBA reduced the cash rate by 15bps to 0.10% and said that it planned to buy AUD 100bn of 5y-10y bonds over the next 6 months. More than expected.

Though the coronavirus is likely to be somewhat lower down the headlines over the next couple of days, further restrictions were imposed in Europe yesterday as Italy announced a new three-tiered system in order to avoid another national lockdown. Shopping malls will close during weekends across the country, while secondary schools will be shut and Museums will close nationally. Other than these measures, Prime Minister Conte is resisting a full national lockdown. In the U.K. it was announced late last night that the city of Liverpool will be the first to have mass rapid testing on the population with the hope that this can be rolled out nationally in the weeks ahead. On the eve of the election in the US, Massachusetts Governor Baker has instituted new restrictions in his state. Residents are to stay home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. except for essential activities, and many businesses will therefore shut at 9:30 pm and indoor gatherings at private residences are limited to 10 people. This comes as multiple states in the Midwest announced positivity rates in the double digits and hospitalisations in Houston, Texas are back at August levels. Click on ‘view report’ above to see the usual COVID-19 tables at the end of the PDF.

The main data highlight yesterday were the release of the October manufacturing PMIs from around the world. The ISM manufacturing reading in the US surpassed expectations to reach a 2-year high of 59.3 (vs. 56.0 expected), and the employment index also rose to 53.2, its highest since June 2019. Over in Europe the final manufacturing PMIs saw some slight upward revisions from the flash prints, with the Euro Area reading at 54.8 (vs. flash 54.4), and the German PMI at 58.2 (vs. flash 58). The problem is that this is backward looking now and also reflects a manufacturing sector less lockdown than services (80-90% of most western economies) are now starting to be.

To the day ahead now, and though all eyes will be on the US election, there’ll also be data on US factory orders for September and the ECB’s Knot will be speaking. Good luck resting ahead of a big night ahead.

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Revving up tourism: Formula One and other big events look set to drive growth in the hospitality industry

With big events drawing a growing share of of tourism dollars, F1 offers a potential glimpse of the travel industry’s future.

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Sergio Perez of Oracle Red Bull Racing, right, and Charles Leclerc of the Scuderia Ferrari team compete in the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 19, 2023. Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

In late 2023, I embarked on my first Formula One race experience, attending the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix. I had never been to an F1 race; my interest was sparked during the pandemic, largely through the Netflix series “Formula 1: Drive to Survive.”

But I wasn’t just attending as a fan. As the inaugural chair of the University of Florida’s department of tourism, hospitality and event management, I saw this as an opportunity. Big events and festivals represent a growing share of the tourism market – as an educator, I want to prepare future leaders to manage them.

And what better place to learn how to do that than in the stands of the Las Vegas Grand Prix?

A smiling professor is illuminated by bright lights in a nighttime photo taken at a Formula 1 event in Nevada.
The author at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Katherine Fu

The future of tourism is in events and experiences

Tourism is fun, but it’s also big business: In the U.S. alone, it’s a US$2.6 trillion industry employing 15 million people. And with travelers increasingly planning their trips around events rather than places, both industry leaders and academics are paying attention.

Event tourism is also key to many cities’ economic development strategies – think Chicago and its annual Lollapalooza music festival, which has been hosted in Grant Park since 2005. In 2023, Lollapalooza generated an estimated $422 million for the local economy and drew record-breaking crowds to the city’s hotels.

That’s why when Formula One announced it would be making a 10-year commitment to host races in Las Vegas, the region’s tourism agency was eager to spread the news. The 2023 grand prix eventually generated $100 million in tax revenue, the head of that agency later announced.

Why Formula One?

Formula One offers a prime example of the economic importance of event tourism. In 2022, Formula One generated about $2.6 billion in total revenues, according to the latest full-year data from its parent company. That’s up 20% from 2021 and 27% from 2019, the last pre-COVID year. A record 5.7 million fans attended Formula One races in 2022, up 36% from 2019.

This surge in interest can be attributed to expanded broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals and a growing global fan base. And, of course, the in-person events make a lot of money – the cheapest tickets to the Las Vegas Grand Prix were $500.

Two brightly colored race cars are seen speeding down a track in a blur.
Turn 1 at the first Las Vegas Grand Prix. Rachel Fu, CC BY

That’s why I think of Formula One as more than just a pastime: It’s emblematic of a major shift in the tourism industry that offers substantial job opportunities. And it takes more than drivers and pit crews to make Formula One run – it takes a diverse range of professionals in fields such as event management, marketing, engineering and beyond.

This rapid industry growth indicates an opportune moment for universities to adapt their hospitality and business curricula and prepare students for careers in this profitable field.

How hospitality and business programs should prepare students

To align with the evolving landscape of mega-events like Formula One races, hospitality schools should, I believe, integrate specialized training in event management, luxury hospitality and international business. Courses focusing on large-scale event planning, VIP client management and cross-cultural communication are essential.

Another area for curriculum enhancement is sustainability and innovation in hospitality. Formula One, like many other companies, has increased its emphasis on environmental responsibility in recent years. While some critics have been skeptical of this push, I think it makes sense. After all, the event tourism industry both contributes to climate change and is threatened by it. So, programs may consider incorporating courses in sustainable event management, eco-friendly hospitality practices and innovations in sustainable event and tourism.

Additionally, business programs may consider emphasizing strategic marketing, brand management and digital media strategies for F1 and for the larger event-tourism space. As both continue to evolve, understanding how to leverage digital platforms, engage global audiences and create compelling brand narratives becomes increasingly important.

Beyond hospitality and business, other disciplines such as material sciences, engineering and data analytics can also integrate F1 into their curricula. Given the younger generation’s growing interest in motor sports, embedding F1 case studies and projects in these programs can enhance student engagement and provide practical applications of theoretical concepts.

Racing into the future: Formula One today and tomorrow

F1 has boosted its outreach to younger audiences in recent years and has also acted to strengthen its presence in the U.S., a market with major potential for the sport. The 2023 Las Vegas race was a strategic move in this direction. These decisions, along with the continued growth of the sport’s fan base and sponsorship deals, underscore F1’s economic significance and future potential.

Looking ahead in 2024, Formula One seems ripe for further expansion. New races, continued advancements in broadcasting technology and evolving sponsorship models are expected to drive revenue growth. And Season 6 of “Drive to Survive” will be released on Feb. 23, 2024. We already know that was effective marketing – after all, it inspired me to check out the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

I’m more sure than ever that big events like this will play a major role in the future of tourism – a message I’ll be imparting to my students. And in my free time, I’m planning to enhance my quality of life in 2024 by synchronizing my vacations with the F1 calendar. After all, nothing says “relaxing getaway” quite like the roar of engines and excitement of the racetrack.

Rachel J.C. Fu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023

Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady…

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Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady decrease follows a rapid increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022, and a period of relatively stable balances during the first half of 2023. In this post, we interpret the recent drop in ON RRP take-up through the lens of the channels that we identify in our recent Staff Report as driving its initial increase.

ON RRP Take-up Has Been Decreasing since June 2023…

A blue single-line chart depicts ON RRP take-pp from 2020  through the end of 2023 in trillions of U.S. dollars. The chart shows a steady increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022. Ater a period of relatively stable balances in the first half of 2023, the chart shows a recent drop in ON RRP take-up.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis. FRED database.

Banks’ Balance-Sheet Costs

As the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it increased the supply of reserves to the banking system and, as a result, banks’ balance sheets also grew. Reserves increased from $1.6 trillion—or 9 percent of banks assets—in January 2020 to $3.2 trillion—or 16 percent of bank assets—over the following three months, reaching a historical maximum of 19 percent of banks’ assets in September 2021. As the chart below shows, bank assets also grew from $18 trillion in January of 2020 to $20 trillion in April 2020, and continued to increase to $23 trillion in May 2023.

As banks’ balance sheets expand, regulatory ratios—such as the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)—are likely to become tighter for some institutions. Banks react to increased balance-sheet costs by pushing some of their deposits toward the money market fund (MMF) industry—for instance, by lowering the rate paid on bank deposits—and reducing their demand for short-term debt. As we explain in our paper, both effects are likely to have boosted ON RRP take-up during March 2021 – May 2023, as most MMFs are eligible to invest in the ON RRP and do so especially when alternative investment options, such as banks’ wholesale short-term debt—including repos by dealers affiliated with a bank holding company—dwindle.

Likely, these effects have subsided relative to 2022. Indeed, since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023, below the average of 16 percent observed between March 2020 and May 2023. Since the SLR treats all assets in the same way regardless of their riskiness, large banks’ balance-sheet expansions are particularly costly if they are used to finance safe assets with low returns. Therefore, though bank assets have remained relatively stable, the recent decline in the ratio of reserves to bank assets has likely reduced banks’ overall balance-sheet costs.

…while Bank Assets and Reserves Relative to Bank Assets Have Remained Roughly Constant.

 A two-line chart depicts bank assets in red and the ratio of bank reserves to assets in blue from 2020 to late 2023. Since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED database.

Consistent with a decrease in banks’ balance-sheet costs (and an increase in the supply of bank debt), the interest rates at which banks and broker dealers borrow via overnight Treasury-backed repos have increased since the fourth quarter of 2022 and are now a few basis points above the ON RRP rate (see chart below). This positive rate differential pushes MMFs away from investing at the ON RRP facility and into private repos.

The SOFR-ON RRP Spread Has Been Positive…

A blue single-line chart depicts the spread between the secured overnight financing rate and the ON RRP rate in basis points from 2020 through the end of 2024. The rate differential has been positive since early 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, FRED database.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy can affect ON RRP take-up by MMFs in two ways. First, the interest-rate pass-through of MMF shares is higher than that of bank deposits; as a result, the size of the MMF industry comoves with the monetary policy cycle as investors switch from bank deposits to MMF shares when the policy rate increases. Though the assets of the MMF industry are at an all-time high, the pace of the increase has somewhat decreased recently, consistent with a slower pace of monetary policy tightening; moreover, the share of MMF assets managed by government funds—the ones most likely to invest in the ON RRP—has decreased since June 2022 by 7 percentage points.

Second, monetary policy can affect MMFs’ take-up at the ON RRP also through its effect on interest-rate uncertainty. Higher uncertainty leads MMFs to rebalance their portfolios toward investments with shorter duration; the ON RRP is one such investment as it is overnight. Indeed, interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023. Recently, however, the increase has been partially reversed. Indeed, the average level of the MOVE was 125.6 in the first half of 2023 but declined to 117.3 in the second half of the year.

…while Interest-Rate Uncertainty Has Been Decreasing.

A blue single line chart shows that interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.

The Supply of T-bills

A third driver of ON RRP take-up is the supply of T-bills. The Federal Government has expanded the supply of T-bills dramatically in 2023: T-bills outstanding increased from $3.7 trillion at the end of 2022 to $5.3 trillion at the end of September 2023, with a $1.3 trillion increase since June. As the supply of T-bills grows, the investment options of MMFs—and especially of government funds, which represent 83 percent of the industry and can only invest in short-term government debt and repos backed by government debt—expand and, as a result, their investment in the ON RRP dwindles. In our staff report, we estimate that a $100 billion increase in the amount of T-bill issuance reduces the proportion of ON RRP investment in a government-MMF portfolio by 2.3 percentage points, relative to that in a prime-MMF portfolio; since average monthly T-bill issuance went from $1.12 trillion in the period from 2022:Q1-2023:Q1 to $1.53 trillion in 2023:Q2-2023:Q3, this effect on portfolio rebalancing amounts to an additional decrease in ON RRP investment of roughly $350 billion.

Summing It Up

The increase in ON RRP take-up between 2021 and May 2023 was driven by a series of factors: a rise in banks’ balance-sheet costs due to the expansion of the supply of reserves in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid hikes in policy rates aimed at fighting inflation and the resulting increase in interest-rate uncertainty, and the decrease in the T-bill supply of 2021-22 resulting from the normalization of public debt after the COVID-19  crisis.

These factors have reversed: the Federal Reserve restarted running off its balance sheet after the temporary expansion during the banking turmoil of March 2023; the growth of the banking system waned while the ratio of reserves to asset decreased; the pace of interest-rate hikes slowed down; and the T-bill supply increased again. If these dynamics persist in the months ahead, ON RRP take-up may continue to decrease. Such a steady decline would be consistent with that observed in early 2018, when investment at the ON RRP gradually disappeared as the Federal Reserve continued to normalize the size of its balance sheet and reserves in the banking system became less abundant.

Gara Afonso is the head of Banking Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Marco Cipriani is the head of Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

Gabriele La Spada is a financial research economist in Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.   

How to cite this post:
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada, “Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, December 19, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/12/dropping-like-a-stone-on-rrp-take-up-in-the-second-half-of-2023/.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

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