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Dr. Copper Is Talking; Are You Listening?

Dr. Copper Is Talking; Are You Listening?

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

Dr. Fauci still believes there are precarious levels of COVID-19 cases.  But he’s the only one.

By now, even the most fearful amongst us have come…

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Dr. Copper Is Talking; Are You Listening?

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

Dr. Fauci still believes there are precarious levels of COVID-19 cases.  But he’s the only one.

By now, even the most fearful amongst us have come to a very obvious conclusion.  Fauci isn’t a real doctor.  He’s a quack.  An imposter.  A fraud.

Most people of sound mind and honest intentions are ready to move on.  Here in the ‘land of fruits and nuts’ things are even opening back up.  Governor Newsom, compelled by a recall election, is now granting some slack to the plebs.  He has to…or he’ll lose his job.

The reopening of an economy following a great plague – or even a moderate virus – is a remarkable time to be alive.  The impossible becomes possible.  DOW 36,000 is now within reach – only 22 years late.

Indeed, it feels great.  The stars have never burned brighter.  Water has never tasted sweeter.  And the first hues of sunrise have never been more colorful.

Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that Q1 GDP increased at an annualized rate of 6.4 percent.  This marks the second highest rate of quarterly growth since 2003 – exceeded only by the epic bounce in third quarter 2020.

But, alas, it did not live up to expectations.  Egghead economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted Q1 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 6.7 percent.

Somehow $2 trillion in stimulus couldn’t nudge GDP growth above expectations.  But we’re certain the Commerce Department will make up for the 0.3 percent miss in their two scheduled forthcoming revisions to Q1 GDP growth.

Regardless, at this point who really cares.  GDP is backward looking.  What can we expect going forward?  Where are things headed next?

Dr. Copper

To answer this question, we’ll consult with a real doctor – not a quack doctor like Fauci.  Specifically, we turn to Dr. Copper for an honest answer…

Dr. Copper – the metal with a PhD in economics – is always the first to know which way the economy will go.  Copper’s broad use in industry and many different sectors of the economy, ranging from infrastructure to housing and consumer electronics, makes it a good early indicator of economic activity.

When copper prices rise, economic activity soon often follows.  When copper prices fall, the economy often then stagnates.  Over the last year, the price of copper has risen over 90 percent.

Copper is now at a 10 year high of $4.50 per pound, and just a scratch below its all-time high of $4.6255 per pound.  What’s more, the price of copper could go much higher.

Certainly, some of copper’s price rise may be attributed to rising demand for semiconductors, cellular towers, and other electronics.  But at least some of the most recent price rise is due to supply disruption.

The President of Chile, Sebastian Piner, recently had the gall to tell his country’s workers they could not make a third round of early withdrawals from their pension funds.  Piner, a Class A fuddy-duddy, still holds the antiquated belief that one must be retired to spend their pension fund.  And now this is contributing to a global copper supply crunch.

For example, this week port workers in Chile went on strike in protest of Piner’s blockage of additional early withdrawals from pension funds.  The strike threatens to disrupt copper shipments.

The reason this matters is because Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and is responsible for a quarter of the world’s copper mine production.

[Editor’s note: Paid up subscribers to the Wealth Prism Letter are sitting on 235 percent gains on shares of copper miner Freeport-McMoRan, which was recommended in February 2020.  The May edition of the Wealth Prism Letter will be published this coming Monday Morning, May 3.  Subscribe today to get first notice of our new recommendation; one with very promising prospects.]

What to make of it…

Dr. Copper is Talking, Are You Listening?

Copper’s price has been rising for much longer than port workers have been striking in Chile.  We believe it will continue to rise long after workers return to the docks.

Perhaps Dr. Copper is telling us the economy is on the up and up.  That a new building boom has commenced.  That we’re entering a post-COVID-19 period of renewed prosperity. 

Yet if you close your eyes and put your ear to the ground you’ll hear Dr. Copper telling something much, much more.

Specifically, you’ll hear Dr. Copper telling you that money supply inflation leads to asset price inflation, and commodity price inflation, and consumer price inflation, and, ultimately, complete societal breakdown.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has doubled over the last 18-months.  Similarly, the price of copper is up over 90 percent over the last 12 months.  What’s next?

Are you ready for your grocery bill to double over the next year?

You should be.  Crop prices are now at an 8 year high.

Without question, rising consumer prices will amp up to a fever pitch over the hot summer months.  That’s when it will become apparent that the post-pandemic economic rebound was nothing more than an inflation surge.  Copper is telegraphing this.  Agriculture prices are too.

Gold and silver, confounded by enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, have been left behind.  All the reason to add more to your stash…while you still can.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/30/2021 - 13:51

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International

Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union…

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Angry Shouting Aside, Here's What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union address - in which he insisted that the American economy is doing better than ever, blamed inflation on 'corporate greed,' and warned that Donald Trump poses an existential threat to the republic.

But in between the angry rhetoric, he also laid out his 2024 election platform - for which additional details will be released on March 11, when the White House sends its proposed budget to Congress.

To that end, Goldman Sachs' Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa have summarized the key points:

Taxes

While railing against billionaires (nothing new there), Biden repeated the claim that anyone making under $400,000 per year won't see an increase in their taxes.  He also proposed a 21% corporate minimum tax, up from 15% on book income outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (which would promptly be passed along to consumers in the form of more inflation). Goldman notes that "Congress is unlikely to consider any of these proposals this year, they would only come into play in a second Biden term, if Democrats also won House and Senate majorities."

Biden also called on Congress to restore the pandemic-era child tax credit.

Immigration

Instead of simply passing a slew of border security Executive Orders like the Trump ones he shredded on day one, Biden repeated the lie that Congress 'needs to act' before he can (translation: send money to Ukraine or the US border will continue to be a sieve).

As immigration comes into even greater focus heading into the election, we continue to expect the Administration to tighten policy (e.g., immigration has surged 20pp the last 7 months to first place with 28% in Gallup’s “most important problem” survey). As such, we estimate the foreign-born contribution to monthly labor force growth will moderate from 110k/month in 2023 to around 70-90k/month in 2024. -GS

Ukraine

Biden, with House Speaker Mike Johnson doing his best impression of a bobble-head, urged Congress to pass additional assistance for Ukraine based entirely on the premise that Russia 'won't stop' there (and would what, trigger article 5 and WW3 no matter what?), despite the fact that Putin explicitly told Tucker Carlson he has no further ambitions, and in fact seeks a settlement.

As Goldman estimates, "While there is still a clear chance that such a deal could come together, for now there is no clear path forward for Ukraine aid in Congress."

China

Biden, forgetting about all the aggressive tariffs, suggested that Trump had been soft on China, and that he will stand up "against China's unfair economic practices" and "for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

Healthcare

Lastly, Biden proposed to expand drug price negotiations to 50 additional drugs each year (an increase from 20 outlined in the IRA), which Goldman said would likely require bipartisan support "even if Democrats controlled Congress and the White House," as such policies would likely be ineligible for the budget "reconciliation" process which has been used in previous years to pass the IRA and other major fiscal party when Congressional margins are just too thin.

So there you have it. With no actual accomplishments to speak of, Biden can only attack Trump, lie, and make empty promises.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 18:00

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Government

Jack Smith Says Trump Retention Of Documents “Starkly Different” From Biden

Jack Smith Says Trump Retention Of Documents "Starkly Different" From Biden

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special…

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Jack Smith Says Trump Retention Of Documents "Starkly Different" From Biden

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special counsel Jack Smith has argued the case he is prosecuting against former President Donald Trump for allegedly mishandling classified information is “starkly different” from the case the Department of Justice declined to bring against President Joe Biden over retention of classified documents.

(Left) Special counsel Jack Smith in Washington on Aug. 1, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images); (Right) Former President Donald Trump. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

Prosecutors, in responding to a motion President Trump filed to dismiss the case based on selective and vindictive prosecution, said on Thursday this is not the case of “two men ‘commit[ting] the same basic crime in substantially the same manner.”

They argue the similarities are only “superficial,” and that there are two main differences: that President Trump allegedly “engaged in extensive and repeated efforts to obstruct justice and thwart the return of documents” and the “evidence concerning the two men’s intent.”

Special counsel Robert Hur’s report found that there was evidence that President Biden “willfully” retained classified Afghanistan documents, but that evidence “fell short” of concluding guilt of willful retention beyond reasonable doubt.

Prosecutors argue the “strength of the evidence” is a crucial element showing these cases are not “similarly situated.”

Trump may dispute the Hur Report’s conclusions but he should not be allowed to misrepresent them,” prosecutors wrote, arguing that the defense’s argument to dismiss the case fell short of legal standards.

They point to volume as another distinction: President Biden had 88 classified documents and President Trump had 337. Prosecutors also argued that while President Biden’s Delaware garage “was plainly an unsecured location ... whatever risks are posed by storing documents in a private garage” were “dwarfed” by President Trump storing documents at an “active social club” with 150 staff members and hundreds of visitors.

Defense attorneys had also cited a New York Times report where President Biden was reported to have held the view that President Trump should be prosecuted, expressing concern about his retention of documents at Mar-a-lago.

Prosecutors argued that this case was not “foisted” upon the special counsel, who had not been appointed at the time of these comments.

“Trump appears to contend that it was President Biden who actually made the decision to seek the charges in this case; that Biden did so solely for unconstitutional reasons,” the filing reads. “He presents no evidence whatsoever to show that Biden’s comments about him had any bearing on the Special Counsel’s decision to seek charges, much less that the Special Counsel is a ’stalking horse.'”

8 Other Cases

President Trump has argued he is being subjected to selective and vindictive prosecution, warranting dismissal of the case, but prosecutors argue that the defense has not “identified anyone who has engaged in a remotely similar battery of criminal conduct and not been prosecuted as a result.”

In addition to President Biden, defense attorneys offered eight other examples.

Former Vice President Mike Pence had, after 2023 reports about President Biden retaining classified documents surfaced, retained legal counsel to search his home for classified documents. Some documents were found, and he sent them to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA).

Prosecutors say this was different from President Trump’s situation, as Vice President Pence returned the documents out of his own initiative and had fewer than 15 classified documents.

Former President Bill Clinton had retained a historian to put together “The Clinton Tapes” project, and it was later reported that NARA did not have those tapes years after his presidency. A court had ruled it could not compel NARA to try to recover the records, and NARA had defined the tapes as personal records.

Prosecutors argue those were tape diaries and the situation was “far different” from President Trump’s.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had “used private email servers ... to conduct official State Department business,” the DOJ found, and the FBI opened a criminal investigation.

Prosecutors argued this was a different situation where the secretary’s emails showed no “classified” markings and the deletion of more than 31,000 emails was done by an employee and not the secretary.

Former FBI Director James Comey had retained four memos “believing that they contained no classified information.” These memos were part of seven he authored addressing interactions he had with President Trump.

Prosecutors argued there was no obstructive behavior here.

Former CIA Director David Petraeus kept bound notebooks that contained classified and unclassified notes, which he allowed a biographer to review. The FBI later seized the notebooks and Mr. Petraeus took a guilty plea.

Prosecutors argued there was prosecution in Mr. Petraeus’s case, and so President Trump’s case is not selective.

Former national security adviser Sandy Berger removed five copies of a classified document and kept them at his personal office, later shredding three of the copies. When confronted by NARA, he returned the remaining two copies and took a guilty plea.

Former CIA director John Deutch kept a journal with classified information on an unclassified computer, and also took a guilty plea.

Prosecutors argued both Mr. Berger and Mr. Deutch’s behavior was “vastly less egregious than Trump’s” and they had been prosecuted.

Former White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx had possession of classified materials according to documents retrieved by NARA.

Prosecutors argued that there was no indication she knew she had classified information or “attempted to obstruct justice.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 17:40

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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

Shutterstock

United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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