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Market in Review: Last Week’s Darlings and Duds

Each week in my DecisionPoint Diamonds reports, I give readers 10+ stock picks to consider. This week, we had 11 picks. I look for stocks that are beginning to show positive momentum, bullish chart patterns, breakouts and improving relative strength among

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Each week in my DecisionPoint Diamonds reports, I give readers 10+ stock picks to consider. This week, we had 11 picks. I look for stocks that are beginning to show positive momentum, bullish chart patterns, breakouts and improving relative strength among not only the SPX, but also against its industry group. Today, I thought I would share three of last week's "Diamonds in the Rough." I have two "Darlings" and one "Dud." They aren't all winners and certainly are not "sure things," so I feel it is appropriate to show you the trade that didn't work out. This week's "Darlings" come from the Biotech industry group, which really broke out this week. This week's "Dud" wasn't actually too bad. It was a timing issue, but it actually looks pretty good going forward. As part of a DP Diamonds subscription, you also get entrance into the Friday "Diamond Mine" where we review in detail the "Diamonds in the Rough" that presented for the week. I also take symbol requests and we look at BUY points for symbols with promise. An added bonus is that, at the end, we "mine" for new opportunities going into next week. Below I have the "Diamonds in the Rough" as they were presented originally, followed by my comments on the chart today.

Darling #1:

Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) - Up +4.43% since 6/9

  EARNINGS: 8/5/2021 (AMC)   Illumina, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of life science tools and integrated systems for large-scale analysis of genetic variation and function. It operates through Core Illumina segment, which serves customers in the research, clinical and applied markets, and enables the adoption of a variety of genomic solutions. The firm's products include instruments, kits and reagents, selection tools, software and analysis. Its services include sequencing and microarray services; proactive instrument monitoring; and instrument services, training and consulting. The company was founded by David R. Walt, John R. Stuelpnagel, Anthony W. Czarnik, Lawrence A. Bock and Mark S. Chee in April 1998 and is headquartered in San Diego, CA. Below is the chart and commentary from Wednesday (6/9): "ILMN is down -0.01% in after-hours trading. I was surprised I hadn't covered this one before. It's not as volatile as many of the biotechs out there. We have a nice breakout from a trading range. The breakout occurred Monday and price has held above support today and yesterday. The RSI is on the overbought side, so we should be aware of that. The PMO is on an oversold BUY signal and has now reached positive territory. There was a recent IT Trend Model "Silver Cross" BUY signal when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. The OBV is confirming the rally and the SCTR is almost in the "hot zone" above 75, meaning it is in the upper quartile among all large-cap stocks. Outperformance is clear. I like that you can set a reasonable 7% stop." Here is today's chart: The biggest flaw is the overbought RSI, which is flattening out. ILMN needs to consolidate Thursday's breakout. It began to today, I still love this Biotech and you can tighten the stop more too. The SCTR is now in the "hot zone" above 75, meaning it is in the top quartile among its peers in the large-cap "universe." Also, regarding the SCTR, the calculations are heavily based on intermediate- and long-term indicators.

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Arthur Hill, CMT in the free DecisionPoint Trading Room!

Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist and main author at TrendInvestorPro.com. Schooled in classical technical analysis, Arthur crossed over to the dark side, quantitative analysis, in 2012. Classical technical analysis provides a solid foundation for learning, but is largely subjective and discretionary in nature. Quantitative analysis puts classical technical indicators to the test with clear rules, signals and results. Taken together, classical chart analysis and quantitative analysis provide the basis for Arthur's systematic approach to analysis, trading and investing. Next level technical analysis.

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Topic: DecisionPoint Trading Room Start Time : Jun 7, 2021 08:41 AM Meeting Recording Link. Access Passcode: June-7th

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Darling #2:

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) - Up +2.31% since yesterday

  EARNINGS: 8/9/2021 (AMC) Novavax, Inc. focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It provides vaccines for COVID-19, seasonal flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Ebola and Middle East respiratory syndrome. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD. Here is the chart and commentary from Thursday (6/10): "NVAX is up +0.16% in after hours trading. I covered NVAX as a Reader Request on July 30th, 2020. It hit its 9.2% stop when price dropped in August, so the position would be closed at this point. However, I like it today given the improvement in the Biotech space and knowing that this one is a leader based on the 98.9 SCTR. Today, price pulled back toward the breakout point. This took the RSI away from overbought territory. The PMO shows no damage and is now rising in positive territory on an oversold crossover BUY signal. Volume is coming in and, despite the pullback, the OBV didn't sustain much damage either. The stop is set below the August 2020 top." Below is today's chart & commentary: The trade still looks good and it isn't too late for entry. The RSI is positive and not overbought. The PMO is rising strongly on a BUY signal. Most interesting is the nearing of an IT Trend Model "Silver Cross" BUY signal, which will be triggered when the 20-EMA crossover above the 50-EMA. Join me in the free Trading Room on Monday and we'll explore the best BUY points! Register HERE if you haven't already.

Dud:

 

Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY) - Down -2.91% Since 6/8

  EARNINGS: 8/25/2021 (BMO)   Dycom Industries, Inc. provides contracting services throughout the United States. Its services include engineering, construction, maintenance and installation services to telecommunications providers, underground facility locating services to various utilities, including other construction and maintenance services to electric and gas utilities, and others. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. Below is the chart and commentary from Tuesday (6/8): "DY is up +0.72% in after hours trading. I covered DY in the October 14th 2020 Diamonds Report. I didn't put a stop on the chart, but an 8% stop wouldn't have triggered even on the big gap down in November. This means that the position is up +26.7%. The end of May was killer for DY, but it is retracing the decline rapidly. The first of two gaps has now been covered. Today's rally pushed DY above the 20-EMA. The PMO had already begun to curl upward. The RSI isn't positive yet, but it is on its way. The industry group is outperforming the SPX and DY is outperforming both. The stop is set below the gap, right around the 200-EMA at $77.28." Below is today's chart: While a lot of things went wrong on this chart, everything still looks bullish, especially after today's strong rally. A short-term flag has formed. The PMO had a positive crossover today. The RSI is still negative, but it is rising again. The timing was just off for it to look good this week. However, if we revisit this chart later, I expect that flag will have resolved upward and we'll be challenging the highs from April and May. Happy Charting! - Erin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links: DecisionPoint Alert Chart List DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List DecisionPoint Sector Chart List DecisionPoint Chart Gallery Trend Models Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) On Balance Volume Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V) ITBM and ITVM SCTR Ranking
DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Science

Record Number Of New York Residents Changing Driver’s Licenses To Florida

Record Number Of New York Residents Changing Driver’s Licenses To Florida

An analysis of official data reveals that a record number of New…

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Record Number Of New York Residents Changing Driver's Licenses To Florida

An analysis of official data reveals that a record number of New York residents changed their driver's licenses to Florida last month.

According to the New York Post, a total of 5,838 New Yorkers made the switch in August - the second-highest number for a single month in recorded history - and which makes for a year-to-date figure of 41,885 New Yorkers who have abandoned their northern licenses after moving south - a pace which points to a new annual record.

"First it was the billionaires. Then it was the rich following behind them. Now you have the middle class," said Renowned fashion designer Alvin Valley, who moved his primary residence to Palm Beach during the pandemic, adding that the influx of residents has been 'staggering.'

Photo by Johnny Nunez/WireImage

"A lot of families just began to feel like New York was becoming unlivable," Valley continued. "Especially for younger couples with kids in their 30s and 40s. They don’t want to get on the subway. It’s a safety issue, it’s a schools issue."

A retired NYPD lieutenant who moved with his family to Jacksonville last year told The Post that New Yorkers still have a buffet of reasons to bid farewell.

John Macari blamed COVID-19 mandates, rising crime and unappealing schools for the continued departures.

He argued that vaccine mandates for public-sector employees left thousands of working-class New Yorkers disillusioned with city government and eyeing the exits.

“Couple that with the rise in crime and zero competence from our elected officials and a lot of people just don’t see a future in New York City for themselves,” Macari said.

The Brooklyn native, who runs a Jacksonville livery service staffed by retired NYPD cops and hosts a podcast featuring ex-officers, said he talks to friends every day who want out. -NY Post

Last month, New York Mayor Eric Adams tried to stem the flow - deploying digital billboards throughout Florida to try and convince ex-New Yorkers to return to the Big Apple.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/28/2022 - 23:20

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Economics

DryEyeRhythm: A reliable, valid, and non-invasive app to assess dry eye disease

Dry eye disease (DED) is a condition characterized by an array of different symptoms, including dryness, ocular discomfort, fatigue, and visual disturbances….

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Dry eye disease (DED) is a condition characterized by an array of different symptoms, including dryness, ocular discomfort, fatigue, and visual disturbances. This condition has become increasingly common in recent years owing to an aging society, increased screen time, and a highly stressful social environment. There are about 1 billion people, worldwide, who have DED. Undiagnosed and untreated DED can lead to a variety of symptoms, including ocular fatigue, sensitivity to light, lower vision quality, and a lower quality of life. Given the widespread prevalence of the condition, this can further lead to reduced work productivity and economic loss.

Credit: Juntendo University

Dry eye disease (DED) is a condition characterized by an array of different symptoms, including dryness, ocular discomfort, fatigue, and visual disturbances. This condition has become increasingly common in recent years owing to an aging society, increased screen time, and a highly stressful social environment. There are about 1 billion people, worldwide, who have DED. Undiagnosed and untreated DED can lead to a variety of symptoms, including ocular fatigue, sensitivity to light, lower vision quality, and a lower quality of life. Given the widespread prevalence of the condition, this can further lead to reduced work productivity and economic loss.

 

Despite the obvious disadvantages of DED, a large portion of the population remains undiagnosed, which ultimately leads to increased disease severity. DED is currently diagnosed through a series of questionnaires and ocular examinations (which can be invasive). But this method of diagnosis is not ideal. DED examinations do not always correspond with  patients’ subjective DED symptoms. Furthermore, non-invasive and non-contact dry eye examinations are required in the COVID-19 pandemic. These flaws point to a need for a simple, reliable, and accessible screening method for DED to improve diagnosis and prognosis of the disease.

 

To answer this need, a research group, led by Professor Akira Murakami and Associate Professor Takenori Inomata of the Juntendo University Graduate School of Medicine, developed a smartphone application called DryEyeRhythm. “DryEyeRhythm leverages the cameras in smartphones to measure users’ blink characteristics and determine maximum blink interval (MBI)—a substitute for tear film breakup time, an important diagnostic criterion of DED,” explains Associate Prof. Inomata. “The app also administers Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) questionnaires, which are also a crucial component of DED diagnosis.

 

To validate the usefulness of the app, the research team conducted a prospective, cross-sectional, observational, single-center study, the results of which have been published in

The Ocular Surface (available online on 25 April 2022 and published in volume 25 in July 2022).

 

For their study, the team recruited 82 patients, aged 20 years or older, who visited the ophthalmology outpatient clinic at the Juntendo University Hospital between July 2020 and May 2021. The participants completed the Japanese version of the OSDI questionnaire (J-OSDI) and underwent examinations for MBI, both via the app and via other analysis techniques.

 

The study revealed that the J-OSDI collected with DryEyeRhythm showed good internal consistency. Moreover, the app-based questionnaire and MBI yielded significantly higher discriminant validity. The app also showed good positive and negative predictive values, with 91.3% and 69.1%, respectively. The area under the Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve—a measure of clinical sensitivity and specificity—for the concurrent use of the app-based J-OSDI and MBI was also high, with a value of 0.910. These results demonstrate that the app is a reliable, valid, and moreover non-invasive, instrument for assessing DED.

 

Non-contact and non-invasive DED diagnostic assistance, like the kind provided by DryEyeRhythm, could help facilitate the early diagnosis and treatment of patients, as well as, DED treatment through telemedicine and online medical care,” says Associate Prof. Inomata. The research team plans to further validate its results by conducting a multi-institutional collaborative study in the future. They are also planning to obtain medical device approval and insurance reimbursement for the smartphone application.

 

The development of DryEyeRhythm is crucial step forward toward the management of DED and improving vision and quality of life among the population.


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Spread & Containment

A rapid, highly sensitive method to measure SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been shown to be an excellent means of understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in communities. It is now used in…

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Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been shown to be an excellent means of understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in communities. It is now used in multiple areas across the world to track the prevalence of the virus, serving as a proxy for determining the status of COVID-19. Of particular importance is that WBE can be used to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19, including asymptomatic cases. However, one of the major drawbacks of WBE for SARS-CoV-2 has been that the traditional method was not very sensitive, and low viral loads could not be reliably detected.

Credit: Hiroki Ando, et al. Science of the Total Environment. August 8, 2022

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been shown to be an excellent means of understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in communities. It is now used in multiple areas across the world to track the prevalence of the virus, serving as a proxy for determining the status of COVID-19. Of particular importance is that WBE can be used to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19, including asymptomatic cases. However, one of the major drawbacks of WBE for SARS-CoV-2 has been that the traditional method was not very sensitive, and low viral loads could not be reliably detected.

A team of scientists from Hokkaido University and Shionogi & Co, Ltd., have developed a simple, rapid, highly sensitive method for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. The method, EPISENS-S, which does not require specialised equipment, was described in the journal Science of the Total Environment.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan has had the lowest number of cases per capita. Thus, the viral loads in sewage have also been lower, and much more difficult to evaluate using established WBE methods—due to their low sensitivity. Prior work by the research team showed that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was associated with solids in sewage, so they focused on developing a method to analyse the solid phase of wastewater.

The method they developed, EPISENS-S, involves centrifuging collected wastewater samples to separate all the solids in the samples. The solids were then treated with a commercially available kit to extract all the RNA; the RNA was then reverse transcribed and amplified to obtain a substantial amount of DNA copies. A separate set of samples was subjected to treatment with polyethylene glycol followed by RNA extraction and reverse transcription to synthesize DNA: the method that is currently widely implemented in Japan. The DNA obtained from each of these methods was subjected to quantitative PCR (qPCR).

The team found that the EPISENS-S method is approximately 100 times more sensitive than the polyethylene glycol method. They used EPISENS-S to conduct a long-term analysis of wastewater from two sewage treatment plants in Sapporo city, and found that there was a high correlation between changes in RNA concentrations in the collected samples and changes in the number of reported cases in the city. EPISENS-S can also detect and quantify the Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), which is associated with fecal matter and is used as an internal control.

EPISENS-S provides a way to track COVID-19 cases that are asymptomatic, as well as those that have not been clinically confirmed. In addition, it has great potential to continue tracking the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 as vaccination rates increase. Finally, EPISENS-S could also be adapted to track other viral diseases with low infection numbers and viral loads.


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