Connect with us

International

Developing economies must act now to dampen the shocks from the Ukraine conflict

The war in Ukraine could not have come at a worse time for the global economy—when the recovery from the pandemic-induced contraction had begun to falter,…

Published

on

By Indermit Gill

The war in Ukraine could not have come at a worse time for the global economy—when the recovery from the pandemic-induced contraction had begun to falter, inflation was surging, central banks in the world’s largest economies were gearing up to hike interest rates, and financial markets were gyrating over a formidable constellation of uncertainties.

The war has aggravated those uncertainties in ways that will reverberate across the world, harming the most vulnerable people in the most fragile places. It’s too soon to tell the degree to which the conflict will alter the global economic outlook. Like the novel coronavirus, the latest crisis arrived in a largely unexpected form—in its scale and ferocity, in its location, and in the global response to it. Much will depend on what happens next. But it’s already clear that higher food and energy prices—along with supply shortages—will be the immediate inflictor of pain for low- and middle-income economies.

Many of the world’s developing economies remain debilitated by the pandemic. The healthy recovery that advanced economies have experienced over the past year has largely bypassed them: By 2023, economic output levels in developing economies will still be 4 percent below their projected levels before the pandemic. Total debt in these economies now stands at a 50-year high. Inflation is at an 11-year high, and 40 percent of central banks have begun to raise interest rates in response.

As devastating as it has been, the coronavirus pandemic was an object lesson in the power of policymakers to respond effectively to a catastrophe.

The Ukraine crisis could make it harder for many low- and middle-income economies to regain their footing. Besides higher commodity prices, the fallout is likely to arrive through several other vectors: trade shocks, financial turbulence, and remittances and the flight of refugees. Countries closest to the conflict—by virtue of their strong trade, financial, and migration links to Russia and Ukraine—are likely to suffer the greatest immediate harm. But the effects could ripple far beyond.

Food and fuel costs

Some developing economies are heavily reliant on Russia and Ukraine for food (Figure 1). These two countries supply more than 75 percent of the wheat imported by a handful of economies in Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa These economies are particularly vulnerable to a disruption in the production or transportation of grains and seeds from Russia and Ukraine. For lower-income countries, disruption to supplies as well as higher prices could cause increased hunger and food insecurity.

Russia is also a major force in the market for energy and metals: It accounts for a quarter of the market for natural gas, 18 percent of the coal market, 14 percent of the market for platinum, and 11 percent for crude oil. A steep drop in the supply of these commodities would hamstring construction, petrochemicals, and transportation. It would also lower economywide growth: Estimates from a forthcoming World Bank publication suggest that a 10 percent oil-price increase that persists for several years can cut growth in commodity-importing developing economies by a tenth of a percentage point. Oil prices have risen by more than 100 percent during the last 6 months. If this lasts, oil could shave a full percentage point of growth from oil importers like China, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. Before the war broke out, South Africa was expected to grow by about 2 percent annually in 2022 and 2023, Turkey by 2-3 percent, and China and Indonesia by 5 percent, so a slowdown of 1 percentage point of growth means that growth will be cut by between a fifth and a half.

Financial turbulence

The conflict has already caused tremors in financial markets, prompting a sell-off in stocks and bonds in the main global markets. An increase in investor risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from developing economies, triggering currency depreciations, falling stock prices, and higher risk premiums in bond markets. That would create acute stress for the dozens of developing economies with high debt levels. Economies with high current account deficits or large shares of short-term debt denominated in foreign currencies would struggle to roll over the debt. Alternatively, they would face higher debt service obligations.

Financial stress could be aggravated by central banks’ response to higher inflation. In many developing economies, inflation is already at the highest level in a decade. A further boost from surging energy prices could lead to an inflationary spiral as expectations of higher long-term inflation become entrenched. That, in turn, could prompt central banks to tighten monetary policy more rapidly than has been expected so far.

Refugee flight and remittances

Since the conflict began, more than 2 million people have fled Ukraine into neighboring nations, marking the largest mass migration in Europe since World War II. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees expects the refugee numbers to climb to 4 million not before long. Accommodating the sudden arrival of a large number of newcomers is tough for host governments. It puts pressure on public finances and on service delivery—particularly health care, which remains in short supply as the pandemic stretches into its third year.

The economic pain, moreover, could radiate beyond Eastern Europe to countries that rely heavily on remittances in the affected countries. Several countries in Central Asia, for example, are heavily dependent on remittances from Russia—in some instances, these remittances account for as much as 10 percent of the country’s GDP. Many Central Asian countries are likely to see a decline in remittances as a result of the conflict.

Prevention pays

It’s time to act. The World Bank Group, in tandem with the International Monetary Fund, is moving quickly to provide assistance to Ukraine and other affected countries. A $3 billion package of support in the coming months will include $350 million for Ukraine by the end of this month. Governments in developing economies should also move quickly to contain economic risks. Building foreign exchange reserves, improving financial risk monitoring, and strengthening macroprudential policies are vital first steps. Policymakers will need to be vigilant—and make careful course corrections—in their response to rising inflation. They should also start to replenish fiscal policy buffers depleted by COVID-19—by eliminating inefficient expenditures and mobilizing domestic financial resources wherever possible. And they should strengthen the social safety nets needed to protect their most vulnerable citizens in a time of crisis.

As devastating as it has been, the coronavirus pandemic was an object lesson in the power of policymakers to respond effectively to a catastrophe. However, prevention is better than cure. Governments in developing economies would be wise to act now.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

John Lewis relies too heavily on its heritage – here’s what it could do instead

The company has returned to profit by making cuts, but there are things it could do to reinvent itself.

Published

on

By

Road to recovery? Jevanto Productions/Shutterstock

In a tricky economic climate, the British department store John Lewis has managed to deliver some good news. The retail partnership – owned by its 80,000 employees – posted pre-tax profits of £56 million after a £234 million loss the year before.

The positive announcement was somewhat tarnished by the fact that those employees (known as partners) would not receive a bonus for the second year in a row. There were also hints of job cuts.

But what more could this giant of UK retail, which also owns Waitrose supermarkets, do to endure its survival? Does its increasing reliance on grocery sales mean its own brand has become less valuable?

For over 160 years on the high street, John Lewis has worked hard on that brand. Its slogan (scrapped in 2022) about being “never knowingly undersold” was well known, it remains a trusted supplier of an extensive range of household hoods, rates highly for customer service, and runs Christmas TV adverts which have became a media event in themselves.

In doing all of those things, John Lewis seemed to be in a much better place than its rivals. BHS (founded in 1928) and Debenhams (1778) have disappeared from the high street. House of Fraser (1849) was taken over and has a much-reduced physical presence.

John Lewis’s nearest rival, Marks & Spencer (1884), is now doing well, but only after it underwent a fairly brutal restructuring which involved cutting thousands of jobs during the pandemic, closing 67 stores, and slashing its operations in France.

So John Lewis’s “brand heritage” – its history, tradition and pedigree – has worked pretty well for a pretty long time. But its recent return to profit was the combined effort of reinvesting and streamlining, according to some reports.

Also known as “trimming the fat” in the business world, the retailer’s streamlining endeavours consisted of cutting more than 1,500 jobs, and closing underperforming stores, such as the branch in Sheffield, which had served residents for nearly 80 years and was much mourned, including by my own mother-in-law.

It has also been reported that more job cuts are imminent, with up to 11,000 jobs to go in the next five years.

And perhaps these measures highlight some of the harsh realities of running a department store in the always-open and effortless world of online shopping. Maybe employees (even those considered partners, as under John Lewis’s employee-ownership model) have become expendable.

Maybe physical stores, where consumers go to explore and seek advice, have become expendable. Maybe all traditions are expendable when they are not commercially viable.

People first

Yet the world of retail is filled with examples of heritage brands reinventing themselves to stay relevant, buoyant and competitive.

John Lewis will need to do the same if it wants to retain its legacy on the British high street. And it could do worse than taking a leaf out of Waitrose’s playbook.

For the company’s return to profit was largely due to the buoyant sales generated by Waitrose supermarkets, which increased by 4%. The department store business meanwhile, suffered a 2% fall.

Part of Waitrose’s success comes from providing a sense of indulgence and enjoyment – including healthy food – through carefully curated and often locally sourced products. It works closely with local farmers, supports regional suppliers (an approach that has also contributed to M&S’s success), and reinvests in stores and product offers.

Essentially, as part of UK’s grocery sector, Waitrose extended its partnership ethos to include people and groups beyond the shop walls – to build a “local retail ecosystem” that promotes and leverages a community spirit around their stores.

M&S shop front.
Appealing to appetites. Simon Vayro/Shutterstock

John Lewis department stores could try and do something similar. They could focus more on products that help customers live healthier and more active lives, and which are relevant to their interests. They could sell products created by local small businesses, and make a determined approach to be a supportive presence in the regions they serve.

Research suggests that heritage brands benefit from having a moral standing – when they show they care about the people they make money from, the local communities they operate in, and the people they employ.

So perhaps John Lewis should make moral values a part of its evolving heritage. It needs to show it cares not just for the people who work for the company directly, but also the people on whom it relies for success – the customers – and people it can build new relationships with. All of them could prove critical to its future success.

Kokho Jason Sit is affiliated with the Chartered Institute of Marketing.

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

AI can help predict whether a patient will respond to specific tuberculosis treatments, paving way for personalized care

People have been battling tuberculosis for thousands of years, and drug-resistant strains are on the rise. Analyzing large datasets with AI can help humanity…

Published

on

By

Tuberculosis typically infects the lungs but can spread to the rest of the body. stockdevil/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Tuberculosis is the world’s deadliest bacterial infection. It afflicted over 10 million people and took 1.3 million lives in 2022. These numbers are predicted to increase dramatically because of the spread of multidrug-resistant TB.

Why does one TB patient recover from the infection while another succumbs? And why does one drug work in one patient but not another, even if they have the same disease?

People have been battling TB for millennia. For example, researchers have found Egyptian mummies from 2400 BCE that show signs of TB. While TB infections occur worldwide, the countries with the highest number of multidrug-resistant TB cases are Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Russia.

The COVID-19 pandemic set back progress in addressing many health conditions, including TB.

Researchers predict that the ongoing war in Ukraine will result in an increase in multidrug-resistant TB cases because of health care disruptions. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic reduced access to TB diagnosis and treatment, reversing decades of progress worldwide.

Rapidly and holistically analyzing available medical data can help optimize treatments for each patient and reduce drug resistance. In our recently published research, my team and I describe a new AI tool we developed that uses worldwide patient data to guide more personalized and effective treatment of TB.

Predicting success or failure

My team and I wanted to identify what variables can predict how a patient responds to TB treatment. So we analyzed more than 200 types of clinical test results, medical imaging and drug prescriptions from over 5,000 TB patients in 10 countries. We examined demographic information such as age and gender, prior treatment history and whether patients had other conditions. Finally, we also analyzed data on various TB strains, such as what drugs the pathogen is resistant to and what genetic mutations the pathogen had.

Looking at enormous datasets like these can be overwhelming. Even most existing AI tools have had difficulty analyzing large datasets. Prior studies using AI have focused on a single data type – such as imaging or age alone – and had limited success predicting TB treatment outcomes.

We used an approach to AI that allowed us to analyze a large and diverse number of variables simultaneously and identify their relationship to TB outcomes. Our AI model was transparent, meaning we can see through its inner workings to identify the most meaningful clinical features. It was also multimodal, meaning it could interpret different types of data at the same time.

Microscopy image of rod-shaped TB bacteria stained green
Mycobacterium tuberculosis spreads through aerosol droplets. NIAID/NIH via Flickr

Once we trained our AI model on the dataset, we found that it could predict treatment prognosis with 83% accuracy on newer, unseen patient data and outperform existing AI models. In other words, we could feed a new patient’s information into the model and the AI would determine whether a specific type of treatment will either succeed or fail.

We observed that clinical features related to nutrition, particularly lower BMI, are associated with treatment failure. This supports the use of interventions to improve nourishment, as TB is typically more prevalent in undernourished populations.

We also found that certain drug combinations worked better in patients with certain types of drug-resistant infections but not others, leading to treatment failure. Combining drugs that are synergistic, meaning they enhance each other’s potency in the lab, could result in better outcomes. Given the complex environment in the body compared with conditions in the lab, it has so far been unclear whether synergistic relationships between drugs in the lab hold up in the clinic. Our results suggest that using AI to weed out antagonistic drugs, or drugs that inhibit or counteract each other, early in the drug discovery process can avoid treatment failures down the line.

Ending TB with the help of AI

Our findings may help researchers and clinicians meet the World Health Organization’s goal to end TB by 2035, by highlighting the relative importance of different types of clinical data. This can help prioritize public health efforts to mitigate TB.

While the performance of our AI tool is promising, it isn’t perfect in every case, and more training is needed before it can be used in the clinic. Demographic diversity can be high within a country and may even vary between hospitals. We are working to make this tool more generalizable across regions.

Our goal is to eventually tailor our AI model to identify drug regimens suitable for individuals with certain conditions. Instead of a one-size-fits-all treatment approach, we hope that studying multiple types of data can help physicians personalize treatments for each patient to provide the best outcomes.

Sriram Chandrasekaran receives funding from the US National Institutes of Health.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

IVI starts technology transfer to Biological E. Limited to manufacture oral cholera vaccine for India and global markets

  Credit: IVI IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international…

Published

on

 

Credit: IVI

  • IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025
  • Oral Cholera Vaccine to be manufactured by Biological E. Limited for India and international markets

 

March 20, 2024, SEOUL, Republic of Korea and HYDERABAD, India — The International Vaccine Institute (IVI), an international organization with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health, today announced that it has commenced a technology transfer of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV-S) to Biological E. Limited (BE), a leading India-based Vaccines and Pharmaceutical Company.

 

Following the signing of a technology license agreement in November last year, IVI has begun providing the technical information, know-how, and materials to produce OCV-S at BE facilities and will continue to support necessary clinical development and regulatory approvals. IVI and BE entered this partnership during an unprecedented surge of cholera outbreaks worldwide and aim to increase the volume of low-cost cholera vaccine in India as well as the global public market.

 

IVI will complete the technology transfer by 2025 and the oral cholera vaccine will be manufactured for India and international markets by Biological E. Limited.

 

Dr. Jerome Kim, Director General of IVI, said: “In an era of heightened risk of poverty-associated infectious diseases such as cholera, the world needs a sustainable source of high-quality, affordable vaccines and committed manufacturers to supply them. We are pleased to partner with Biological E., a company with a proven history of making life-saving vaccines accessible globally, to address this supply gap and protect communities from this deadly, though preventable, disease.”

 

Ms. Mahima Datla, Managing Director, Biological E. Limited, said: “We are glad to be in collaboration with IVI for the manufacture of simplified Oral Cholera Vaccine. Our efforts are aimed to not only combat the disease but to also be part of a sustained legacy of innovation, collaboration, and health stewardship. Together with IVI, we are happy to be shaping a healthier and more resilient future by making this vaccine accessible globally.”

 

This technology transfer and licensing agreement is the sixth of its kind for IVI, transferring such technology to manufacturers in India, the Republic of Korea, Bangladesh, and South Africa. All these partnerships have led to or seek to achieve, pre-qualification (PQ) from the World Health Organization, a designation that enables global agencies such as UNICEF to procure the vaccine for the global market. BE already has 9 vaccines with WHO PQ in its portfolio, and IVI and BE will pursue WHO PQ for OCV-S as well, following national licensure in India.

 

Dr. Julia Lynch, Director of IVI’s Cholera Program, said: “The cholera situation is dire, and the availability and use of oral cholera vaccine is an essential part of a multifaceted approach to cholera control and prevention, especially as outbreaks increase and the global vaccine supply remains strained. With more manufacturers like BE entering the market, the future supply situation looks strong. IVI remains committed to ensuring the availability of the oral cholera vaccine and to developing new and improved vaccines that are equally safe, effective, and affordable and made around the world, for the world.”

 

OCV-S is a simplified formulation of OCV with the potential to lower production costs while increasing production capacity for current and aspiring OCV manufacturers. IVI’s development of OCV-S and ongoing technology transfers are part of an institutional strategy to confront cholera with 3 main goals: 1) Ensure supply of OCV 2) Improve cholera vaccines 3) Support OCV use and introduction. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been supporting IVI’s cholera program since 2000 and is funding this latest technology transfer to BE.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)

The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO), and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that also achieved WHO prequalification in early 2024.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, an Africa Regional Office in Rwanda, a Country Office in Austria, and a Country and Project Office in Kenya. IVI additionally co-founded the Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute in Hong Kong and hosts Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

 

About Biological E. Limited

Biological E. Limited (BE), a Hyderabad-based Pharmaceuticals & Biologics Company founded in 1953, is the first private sector biological products company in India and the first pharmaceutical company in Southern India. BE develops, manufactures and supplies vaccines and therapeutics. BE supplies its vaccines to more than 130 countries and its therapeutic products are sold in India, the USA and Europe. BE currently has 8 WHO-prequalified vaccines and 10 USFDA approved Generic Injectables in its portfolio. Recently, BE has received Emergency Use Listing (EUL) from the WHO for CORBEVAX®, the COVID-19 vaccine. Recently, DCGI has approved BE’S 14-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate vaccine.

In recent years, BE has embarked on new initiatives for organizational expansion such as developing specialty injectable products for global markets as a means to manufacture APIs sustainably and developing novel vaccines for the global market.

Please follow us on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter

 

 

MEDIA CONTACTS

IVI

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int

 

Biological E. Limited

K. Vijay Amruth Raj
Email: Vijay.Kammari@biologicale.com
www.biologicale.com/news


Read More

Continue Reading

Trending