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Despite recession risks, study says Canadian provinces poised for growth

OTTAWA – New research from The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Canada’s provinces to continue seeing gross domestic product (GDP) growth in…

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OTTAWA – New research from The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Canada’s provinces to continue seeing gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 through 2024, despite the overhanging risks of a recession. Saskatchewan and Alberta are projected to lead growth among the provinces.

“Continuing high inflation will likely cause households to tighten their purse strings in the latter part of 2022, with spending habits tapering once consumers have exercised their repressed travel urges,” said Ted Mallet, Director of Economic Forecasting at The Conference Board of Canada. “While there is the possibility of a recession, our view is that a ‘growth plateau’ is a better description of the economy slowing in response to the Bank of Canada’s inflation battle, before picking up again in 2023.”

A drought in Saskatchewan pulled down GDP in the region last year, but a major recovery is expected for 2022. The Conference Board of Canada projects real GDP to reach 7.6 per cent this year, driven by increases in the commodity sector, and 4.1 per cent growth in 2023. Growth will slow in 2024 but remain high at 2.4 per cent.

Similar to Saskatchewan, the commodity price increase is having a positive impact on Alberta overall. GDP in the province is projected to reach 4.9 per cent in 2022, 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.4 per cent in 2024. Employment has remained strong in the province in recent months, as jobs expanded 0.1 per cent while contracting nationally.

Spearheaded by significant increases in agriculture and manufacturing, the goods-producing sectors and steady growth on the service side will see Manitoba’s GDP grow by 4.2 per cent in 2022. This will be followed by another good year of 2.9 per cent growth in 2023 and 1.9 per cent in 2024.

British Columbia has a diverse economy, but global and national currents will continue to influence its course over the coming years. Commodity prices and interest rates are beyond the direct control of B.C.’s households and businesses and will have outsized influence in the province. Growth will slow over the coming quarters, but The Conference Board of Canada does not expect that it will slip negative. The province’s real GDP will grow by 2.6 per cent this year, 1.9 per cent in 2023 and 2.0 per cent in 2024.

Although it’s the country’s largest provincial economy, Ontario is feeling the impact of high inflation and rising interest rates. There is, however, reason for optimism as investments from governments and businesses continue to be made in the province, which will help boost the economy during the slowdown. The province’s economy is slated to grow 3.9 per cent in 2022, 1.7 per cent in 2023 and 2.2 per cent in 2024.

Despite seeing significant GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, Quebec will face growing headwinds throughout the rest of the year and is projected to grow 2.9 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2023. Amid weakening consumer confidence, growth in household discretionary spending, especially on durables, is expected to slow. Meanwhile, demand for services will continue to be supported by the tailwinds of the pandemic reopening.

Newfoundland and Labrador will see the smallest expansion in Canada this year, with GDP growth of 0.5 per cent in 2022, 2.9 per cent in 2023 and 2.2 per cent in 2024. The province is benefiting from the Voisey’s Bay mine expansion and the Come By Chance refinery conversion, with both expecting to start production by the end of the year. Over the medium term, the province will see massive capital spending in its oil and gas sector.

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Prince Edward Island’s GDP to grow 3.7 per cent in 2022, 1.7 per cent in 2023 and 1.9 per cent in 2024. Despite having the highest inflation levels in the country, the region saw employment levels hit an all-time record in June, with the biggest gains in construction and manufacturing.

Nova Scotia continues to rebound from the economic slowdown and is forecasted to see GDP growth of 3.2 per cent in 2022, 1.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.6 per cent in 2024. There is certainly reason for optimism in the province, as the Nova Scotia government announced a $5.7-billion investment in healthcare and has also continued investments in road upgrades as part of the provincial government’s Five-Year Highway Plan.

Driven by interprovincial and international migration, New Brunswick has seen its population grow at the highest rate since 1976. The provincial government is increasing the fee forestry companies pay to harvest timber on Crown lands by 30 per cent. The move comes after the price of lumber spiked in 2020 and continued to increase until May 2021, leading to record profits for forestry companies in the province. The province is projected to have GDP growth of 2.3 per cent in 2022, 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 1.4 per cent in 2024.

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Decrease in Japanese children’s ability to balance during movement related to COVID-19 activity restrictions

A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected…

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A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected their life habits and their abilities to perform physical activities. By comparing medical examination data before and after the onset of the pandemic, they found that physical functions among adolescents deteriorated, including their dynamic balance. They also found that the children had higher body fat levels and worse life habits. Rather than a lack of exercise time, this may have been because of a lack of quality exercise due to activity restrictions.  

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A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected their life habits and their abilities to perform physical activities. By comparing medical examination data before and after the onset of the pandemic, they found that physical functions among adolescents deteriorated, including their dynamic balance. They also found that the children had higher body fat levels and worse life habits. Rather than a lack of exercise time, this may have been because of a lack of quality exercise due to activity restrictions.  

During the COVID-19 pandemic, in Japan, as in other countries, schools and sports clubs tried to prevent the spread of infection by reducing physical education and restricting outdoor physical activities, club activities, and sports. However, children who are denied opportunities for physical activity with social elements may develop bad habits. During the pandemic, children, like adults, increased the time they spent looking at television, smartphone, and computer screens, exercised less, and slept less. Such changes in lifestyle can harm adolescent bodies, leading to weight gain and health problems. 

Visiting Researcher Tadashi Ito and Professor Hideshi Sugiura from the Department of Biological Functional Science at the Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, together with Dr. Yuji Ito from the Department of Pediatrics at Nagoya University Hospital, and  Dr. Nobuhiko Ochi and Dr. Koji Noritake from Aichi Prefectural Mikawa Aoitori Medical and Rehabilitation Center for Developmental Disabilities, conducted a study of Japanese children and students in elementary and junior high schools, aged 9-15, by analyzing data from physical examinations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. They evaluated the children’s muscle strength, dynamic balance functions, walking speed, body fat percentage, screen time, sleep time, quality of life, and physical activity time.  

The researchers found that after the onset of the pandemic, children were more likely to have decreased balance ability when moving, larger body fat percentage, report spending more time looking at TV, computers or smartphones, and sleep less. Since there were no changes in the time spent on physical activity or the number of meals eaten, Sugiura and his colleagues suggest that the worsening of physical functions was related to the quality of exercise of the children. The researchers reported their findings in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.  

“Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Japan after April 2020, children have not been able to engage in sufficient physical education, sports activities, and outdoor play at school. It became clear that balance ability during movement was easily affected, lifestyle habits were disrupted, and the percentage of body fat was likely to increase,” explained Ito. “This may have been because of shorter outdoor playtime and club activities, which impeded children’s ability to learn the motor skills necessary to balance during movement.” 

“Limitations on children’s opportunities for physical activity because of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus have had a significant impact on the development of physical function and lifestyle and may cause physical deterioration and health problems in the future,” warned Ito. “Especially, the risk of injury to children may increase because of a reduced dynamic balance function.” 

The results suggest that even after the novel coronavirus becomes endemic, it is important to consider the effects of social restrictions on the body composition of adolescents. Since physical activities with a social element may be important for health, authorities should prioritize preventing the reduction of children’s physical inactivity and actively encourage them to play outdoors and exercise. The group has some recommendations for families worried about the effects of school closings and other coronavirus measures on their children. “It is important for children to practice dynamic balance ability, maintaining balance to avoid falling over while performing movements,” Ito advised. “To improve balance function in children, it is important to incorporate enhanced content, such as short-term exercise programs specifically designed to improve balance functions.” 


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Contradictions, Lies, And “I Don’t Recalls”: The Fauci Deposition

Contradictions, Lies, And "I Don’t Recalls": The Fauci Deposition

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Missouri Attoney General…

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Contradictions, Lies, And "I Don't Recalls": The Fauci Deposition

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Missouri Attoney General Eric Schmitt released the transcript of the testimony of Dr. Anthony Fauci. As you might recall, Fauci was deposed as part of an ongoing federal lawsuit challenging the Biden Administration’s violations of the First Amendment in targeting and suppressing the speech of Americans who challenged the government’s narrative on COVID-19.

Here is the Fauci deposition transcript.

And here are the highlights…

EcoHealth Alliance - the Peter Daszak group - is knee-deep in the Wuhan controversy, having been funded by the Fauci’s NIH for coronavirus and gain of function research in China (and having worked with the Chinese team in Wuhan). What does Fauci say about EcoHealth Alliance? Over two years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, and after millions dead worldwide, he’s “vaguely familiar” with their work.

In early 2020, Fauci was put on notice that his group - NIAID - had funded EcoHealth alliance on bat coronavirus research for the past five years.

This coincided with early reports - directly to Fauci, from Jeremy Ferrar and Christian Anderson - “of the possibility of there being a manipulation of the virus” based on the fact that “it was an unusual virus.”

Fauci conceded that he was specifically made aware by Anderson that “the unusual features of the virus” make it look “potentially engineered.”

Fauci couldn’t recall why he sent an article discussing gain of function research in China to his deputy, Hugh Auchincloss, telling him it was essential that they speak on the phone. He couldn’t recall speaking with Auchincloss via phone that day. But remarkably, Fauci did remember assigning research tasks to Auchincloss

Fauci was evasive on conversations with Francis Collins about whether NIAID may have funded coronavirus-related research in China, eventually stating “I don’t recall.”

The phrase “I don’t recall” was prominent in Fauci’s deposition. He said it a total of 174 times:

For example, Fauci couldn’t remember what anyone said on a call discussing whether the virus originated in a lab:

During that same call, Fauci couldn’t recall whether anyone expressed concern that the lab leak “might discredit scientific funding projects.” He also couldn’t recall whether there was a discussion about a lab leak distracting from the virus response. Fauci did remember, however, that they agreed there needed to be more time to investigate the virus origins - including the lab leak theory.

What else couldn’t Fauci remember? Whether, early into the pandemic, his confidants raised concerns about social media posts about the origins of COVID-19.

Yet Fauci did admit he was concerned about social media posts blaming China for the pandemic. He even admitted the accidental lab leak “certainly is a possibility,” contradicting his prior claims to National Geographic where he said the virus “could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated.”

Fauci also couldn’t recall whether he had any conversations with Daszak about the origins of COVID-19 in February 2020, but admitted those conversations might have happened: “I told you before that I did not remember any direct conversations with him about the origin, and I said I very well might have had conversations but I don't specifically remember conversations.” And he couldn’t recall telling the media early on during the pandemic that the virus was consistent with a jump “from an animal to a human.”

Fauci said he was in the dark on social media actions to curb speech and suspend accounts that posted COVID-19 information that didn’t fit the mainstream narrative: “I’m not aware of suppression of speech on social media.” Yet it was Fauci’s proclamations of the truth, whether about the origins of COVID-19 to the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, that led to social media companies banning discussions of contrary information.

Regarding those removals of content, Fauci had no personal knowledge of a US Government/Social Media effort to curb “misinformation.” But he conceded the possibility numerous times.

Then there’s the issue of masks. In February 2020, Fauci informed an acquaintance that was traveling: “I do not recommend that you wear a mask.” Fauci would later become a vocal proponent of masks only two months later.

I’m near my Substack length limit - posting the excerpts does that - but you can see from Fauci’s testimony that his public statements about COVID-19 origins and the necessity to wear a mask didn’t match his private conversations. This has been known for some time, but it’s finally nice to get him on record.

Again, read it all and subscribe here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 21:40

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Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook…

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Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook clouded by uncertainties have led to a decline in real wages around the world, a new report published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, according to the 2022-23 Global Wage Report, global real monthly wages fell 0.9 percent this year on average, marking the first decline in real earnings at a global scale in the 21st century.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The multiple global crises we are facing have led to a decline in real wages.

"It has placed tens of millions of workers in a dire situation as they face increasing uncertainties,” ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo said in a statement, adding that “income inequality and poverty will rise if the purchasing power of the lowest paid is not maintained.”

While inflation rose faster in high-income countries, leading to above-average real wage declines in North America (minus 3.2 percent) and the European Union (minus 2.4 percent), the ILO finds that low-income earners are disproportionately affected by rising inflation. As lower-wage earners spend a larger share of their disposable income on essential goods and services, which generally see greater price increases than non-essential items, those who can least afford it suffer the biggest cost-of-living impact of rising prices.

“We must place particular attention to workers at the middle and lower end of the pay scale,” Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez, one of the report’s authors said.

“Fighting against the deterioration of real wages can help maintain economic growth, which in turn can help to recover the employment levels observed before the pandemic. This can be an effective way to lessen the probability or depth of recessions in all countries and regions,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 20:00

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