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Deflation Tsunami×576.pngInflation is one of the great economic debates and often leaves…



Inflation is one of the great economic debates and often leaves big economic thinkers at loggerheads. I am not a financial titan, but looking at the world from 100,000 feet, the conditions are in place for the world to see inflation heading meaningfully lower.

Source: Getty Images

For years, inflation has been too low for comfort for the world’s major central banks. Inflation remained elusive despite ultra-accommodative policy through negative interest rates and an eye-watering amount of quantitative easing (QE). It wasn’t until a pandemic that shuttered economies and ground supply chains to a halt, a war that raised geopolitical tensions and damaged global food and energy security, and a further increase in money supply in response ,that inflation moved meaningfully higher. The question is, is it here to stay?

Inflation is the measurement of the price change for goods and services. As prices start to find a level and stop increasing, the year on year (YoY) change will eventually trend to zero. We will begin seeing these ‘base effects’ drop out, and inflation will start behaving.

Covid is now thankfully a distant memory, and supply chains have eased and are now back to ‘normal’ – a disinflationary impulse.

Source: Bloomberg (May 2023)

The energy-induced spike from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has eased and is another disinflationary impulse.

Source: Bloomberg (May 2023)

The aggressive rate hiking cycle the Bank has embarked on should bring about a slowdown in growth. This is particularly acute for economies with housing exposure linked to floating-rate mortgage products, less of a concern for the US, as most will have 30yr fixed mortgages. With house prices at unaffordable levels across most of the developed world and the cost of borrowing moving sharply higher, house prices will undoubtedly be pressured downwards, another disinflationary impulse. Alongside the housing market, the commercial real estate (CRE) sector is particularly vulnerable as it grapples with tighter monetary policy and a cascade of debt maturities. Rolling the debt over will hurt profitability as the cost of funding is now higher, but also potentially very difficult to do in the current environment. Regional banks in the US are going through their own crisis and are responsible for circa 70% of US CRE lending. Look out below.

Source: St Louis Federal Reserve (March 2023)

Perhaps the market has avoided a nasty recession to date as the consumer has remained defiant and run down their savings and significantly increased credit card debt over the past few years. The ability to do so going forward seems limited given savings rates are at or near the lows and credit card debt is at record highs with increasing annual percentage rates (APRs).

Source: Bloomberg (May 2023)

What is the market pricing? The ‘market’ has a particularly gloomy outlook and suspects recession is all but assured. The 2s/10s yield curve has been an accurate predictor of recession in the past and is currently highly inverted, signalling recession risk.

Source: Bloomberg (May 2023)

On the other hand, the Fed needs to engender confidence; they have said that the spread between 18m forward 3m and spot 3m yield is a better indicator and inferred that recession was less likely. I’m not here to say which measure is better, but… the Fed’s measure has rolled over in spectacular fashion and now suggests the same. That was quick.

Source: Bloomberg (May 2023)

Perhaps the biggest threat to inflation is artificial intelligence (AI)

AI has been predicted to destroy up to 300 million jobs in the coming years. Possibly a doomsday scenario, perhaps not. Mo Gawdat’s bestselling business book of the year, ‘Scary Smart’ gives a splendid and balanced view of this new technology and its impact on humanity. Gawdat was the former chief engineer at Google X, so we can be confident that he has a deep understanding of the sector. Worryingly, this was published in 2021, and things have moved on since then. Several takeaways from the book which struck a chord with me are:

  1. It is happening and cannot be stopped
  2. AI can already communicate better, observe visuals better and create as well as humans
  3. In 2019, Google’s supercomputer, Sycamore, outperformed the previous supercomputer by solving a problem which was considered impossible for normal machines and would have taken the then super compute 10,000 years to complete. Sycamore did this in 200 seconds. It is 1.5 trillion times faster.

Read the book, it really is terrifying.

Is this all scaremongering? Well, there must be something to this. Influential voices worldwide are pleading for regulation around the sector, but this is unlikely to meet its intended purpose. AI is simply progressing too quickly.

During the internet revolution, we witnessed Schumpeter’s creative destruction whereby the destruction of existing economic structures such as industries, firms and jobs were replaced by new ones via innovation and technological change. It always felt like a few industries were at risk, and if you weren’t in that industry, you could breathe a sigh of relief and move on happily with your life. This time it feels different. The breadth and scale of jobs now at risk are frightening.

A few examples are always helpful to help drive home the idea. Least at risk was always the Arts; this is no longer the case.

  1. Imagery/Art can be created in seconds – all that is required is a good description. Below is fully AI-generated image which I created/generated myself in 5 mins. This included downloading the app and fumbling around trying to figure out how it was done.  

Source: Rob Burrows’ original creation

  1. Modelling – now take the above image and think about the modelling world. We no longer need models. Imagine advertising a pair of jeans. The advertising can be done globally and in seconds by simply picking your market and generating the image of an ‘attractive’ person wearing the said item of clothing for that demographic. Selecting male/female/young/old/small/big will be a simple button click.
  2. Music – AI is now creating music and is trending. Drake’s (I personally don’t know who this is) ‘wear my heart on my sleeve’ is currently trending. Musicians are now offering up the use of their vocals for a share in any future profits. It won’t be long until we no longer need human vocals. Hatsune Miku in Japan is an example of entirely generated AI music with a hologram presence and is extremely popular.
  3. The written word – Books and research papers can be written in seconds and across multiple languages. In fact, Hollywood screenwriters are going on strike to try and protect their industry and livelihoods. 

An employment earthquake could be on the near horizon. Mass unemployment is certainly not a recipe for rampant inflation. There may, however, be unchecked profits for those companies that benefit from AI and a cost-cutting drive. Not a bright outlook for the man on the street. How will we all survive while on the unemployment scrap heap?

If such drastic change is upon us, we must rethink everything we know about economics and how society functions—no wonder the topic of universal basic income has reared its head again.

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DNAmFitAge: Biological age indicator incorporating physical fitness

“We expect DNAmFitAge will be a useful biomarker for quantifying fitness benefits at an epigenetic level and can be used to evaluate exercise-based interventions.”…



“We expect DNAmFitAge will be a useful biomarker for quantifying fitness benefits at an epigenetic level and can be used to evaluate exercise-based interventions.”

Credit: 2023 McGreevy et al.

“We expect DNAmFitAge will be a useful biomarker for quantifying fitness benefits at an epigenetic level and can be used to evaluate exercise-based interventions.”

BUFFALO, NY- June 7, 2023 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 15, Issue 10, entitled, “DNAmFitAge: biological age indicator incorporating physical fitness.”

Physical fitness is a well-known correlate of health and the aging process and DNA methylation (DNAm) data can capture aging via epigenetic clocks. However, current epigenetic clocks did not yet use measures of mobility, strength, lung, or endurance fitness in their construction. 

In this new study, researchers Kristen M. McGreevy, Zsolt Radak, Ferenc Torma, Matyas Jokai, Ake T. Lu, Daniel W. Belsky, Alexandra Binder, Riccardo E. Marioni, Luigi Ferrucci, Ewelina Pośpiech, Wojciech Branicki, Andrzej Ossowski, Aneta Sitek, Magdalena Spólnicka, Laura M. Raffield, Alex P. Reiner, Simon Cox, Michael Kobor, David L. Corcoran, and Steve Horvath from the University of California Los Angeles, University of Physical Education, Altos Labs, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, University of Hawaii, University of Edinburgh, National Institute on Aging, Jagiellonian University, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, University of Łódź, Central Forensic Laboratory of the Police in Warsaw, Poland, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of Washington, and University of British Columbia develop blood-based DNAm biomarkers for fitness parameters including gait speed (walking speed), maximum handgrip strength, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) which have modest correlation with fitness parameters in five large-scale validation datasets (average r between 0.16–0.48). 

“These parameters were chosen because handgrip strength and VO2max provide insight into the two main categories of fitness: strength and endurance [23], and gait speed and FEV1 provide insight into fitness-related organ function: mobility and lung function [8, 24].”

The researchers then used these DNAm fitness parameter biomarkers with DNAmGrimAge, a DNAm mortality risk estimate, to construct DNAmFitAge, a new biological age indicator that incorporates physical fitness. DNAmFitAge was associated with low-intermediate physical activity levels across validation datasets (p = 6.4E-13), and younger/fitter DNAmFitAge corresponds to stronger DNAm fitness parameters in both males and females. 

DNAmFitAge was lower (p = 0.046) and DNAmVO2max is higher (p = 0.023) in male body builders compared to controls. Physically fit people had a younger DNAmFitAge and experienced better age-related outcomes: lower mortality risk (p = 7.2E-51), coronary heart disease risk (p = 2.6E-8), and increased disease-free status (p = 1.1E-7). These new DNAm biomarkers provide researchers a new method to incorporate physical fitness into epigenetic clocks.

“Our newly constructed DNAm biomarkers and DNAmFitAge provide researchers and physicians a new method to incorporate physical fitness into epigenetic clocks and emphasizes the effect lifestyle has on the aging methylome.”

Read the full study: DOI: 

Corresponding Authors: Kristen M. McGreevy, Zsolt Radak, Steve Horvath

Corresponding Emails:,, 

Keywords: epigenetics, aging, physical fitness, biological age, DNA methylation

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About Aging-US:

Launched in 2009, Aging publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research and age-related diseases, including cancer—and now, with a special focus on COVID-19 vulnerability as an age-dependent syndrome. Topics in Aging go beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR, among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.

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Spread & Containment

Martha Stewart Has a Spicy Take on Americans Who Want to Work From Home

This half-baked take might need to stay in the oven a little longer.



Lifestyle icon Martha Stewart has been on a roll when it comes to representing vivacious women over 60. Whether she's teaming up to charm audiences alongside her BFF Snoop Dogg, poking fun at Elon Musk, or starring as Sports Illustrated's Swimsuit Issue cover model, Martha stays busy. 

Her most recent publicity moment, however, doesn't have the same wholesome feeling Stewart brings to the table. In an interview with Footwear News, the DIY-queen had some choice words about Americans who want to continue working from home after covid-19 lockdown shut down offices.

“You can’t possibly get everything done working three days a week in the office and two days remotely," the cozy-home guru said. "Look at the success of France with their stupid … you know, off for August, blah blah blah. That’s not a very thriving country. Should America go down the drain because people don’t want to go back to work?”

Well, that's certainly a viewpoint. A lot to unpack there. Many online were confused--after all, didn't Stewart basically make her career by "working from home?"

Sitting down with The Today Show, Stewart elaborated on her controversial stance. It seems she's confusing "work from home" with a three-day workweek. 

"I'm having this argument with so many people these days. It's just that my kind of work is very creative and is very collaborative. And I cannot really stomach another zoom. [...But] I hate going to an office, it's empty. During COVID I took every precaution. We [...] set up an office at [...] my home[...] Now we're our offices and our three day work week, I just don't agree with it," Stewart tells viewers. 

"It's frightening because if you read the economic news and look at what's happening everywhere in the world, a three-day workweek doesn't get the work done, doesn't get the productivity up. It doesn't help with the economy and I think that's very important."

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How cashless societies can boost financial inclusion — with the right safeguards

The UK could learn a lot from developing economies about using digital payments to boost financial inclusion.




Accepting digital payments. WESTOCK PRODUCTIONS/Shutterstock

Cashless societies, where transactions are entirely digital, are gaining traction in many parts of the world, particularly after a pandemic-era boom in demand for online banking.

Improvements in digital payment infrastructure such as mobile payments, digital currencies and online banking, make it more convenient for people and businesses to buy and sell things without using cash. Even the Bank of England is looking into how a digital pound might work, showing the potential for a significant shift from physical cash to digital payments in the UK.

Read more: How a digital pound could work alongside cryptocurrencies

Fintech companies have accelerated the transition towards cashless payments with innovations including mobile payment apps, digital wallets, cryptocurrencies and online banking services. The COVID pandemic was also a tipping point that created unprecedented appetite for digital transactions. Fintechs emerged as a life line for many during lockdowns, particularly vulnerable populations that needed emergency lines of credit and ways to make and receive payments.

By 2021, approximately 71% of adults in developing countries had bank accounts. But this leaves nearly 30% of the population still needing access to essential financial products and services. Fintechs can provide more affordable and accessible financial services and products. This helps boost financial inclusion, particularly for the “unbanked”, or those without a bank account.

In the UK, around 1.3 million people, roughly 4% of the population, lack access to banking services. The government and financial institutions have worked together to promote the adoption of digital payments, and the UK’s Request to Pay service allows people and businesses to request and make payments using digital channels such as Apple Pay and Google Pay.

But other countries are moving faster towards a cashless society. In Sweden, only about 10% of all payments were made in cash in 2020. This move towards cashless payments in the country has been facilitated by mobile payment solutions like Swish, which people can use to send and receive money via mobile phone.

Boosting financial inclusion

India has gone even further. In less than a decade, the country has become a digital finance leader. It has also made significant progress in promoting digital financial inclusion, mainly through the government’s flagship programme, the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY).

India’s banks also participate in mobile payment solutions like Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which can connect multiple accounts via one app. India’s digital infrastructure, known as the India Stack also aims to expand financial inclusion by encouraging companies to develop fintech solutions.

Many developing economies are using digitalisation to boost financial inclusion in this way. Kenya introduced its M-Pesa mobile money service in 2007. While microfinance institutions that provide small loans to low-income individuals and small businesses were first introduced in Bangladesh in the 1970s via the Grameen Bank project.

Digital lending has also grown in India in recent years. Its fintechs use algorithms and data analytics to assess creditworthiness and provide loans quickly and at a lower cost than traditional banks.

These innovative platforms have helped to bridge the gap between the formal financial system and underserved populations – those with low or no income – providing fast access to financial services. By removing barriers such as high transaction costs, lack of physical branches and some credit history requirements, fintech companies can reach a wider range of customers and provide financial services that are tailored to their needs.

It’s the tech behind these systems that helps fintechs connect with their customers. The increased use of digital payment methods generates a wealth of data to gain insights into consumer behaviour, spending patterns and other relevant information that can be used to further support a cashless society.

Helping the UK’s unbanked

Countries like the UK could also promote digital financial inclusion to help unbanked people. But this would require a combination of government support, innovation and the widespread adoption of mobile payment solutions.

There are some significant challenges to overcome to create a true – and truly fair – cashless economy. For example, a cashless system could exclude people who do not have access to digital payment methods, such as the elderly or low-income populations. According to a recent study by Age UK, 75% of over 65s with a bank account said they wanted to conduct at least one banking task in person at a bank branch, building society or post office.

Providing more cashless options could also increase the risk of cybercrime, digital fraud such as phishing scams and data breaches – particularly among people that aren’t as financially literate.

There is a dark side to fintech: algorithm biases and predatory lending practices negatively affect vulnerable and minority groups as well as women. Even major financial firms such as Equifax, Visa and Mastercard can get compromised by data breaches, creating valid concerns about data security for many people.

Cross-border transfer of personal data by fintech companies also concerns regulators, but there is still a lack of internationally recognised data protection standards. This should be addressed as the trend towards cashless societies continues.

Two hands hold a fan of GBP banknotes: £5, £10, £20, £50.
Paying with cash. Nieves Mares/Shutterstock

Building guardrails

Regulations affect how fintech companies can provide financial services but ensure they operate within the law. Since fintech companies generally aim to disrupt markets, however, this can create a complex relationship with regulators.

Collaboration between regulators and fintech companies will boost understanding of these innovative business models and help shape future regulatory frameworks. Countries like India have shown the way in this respect. An innovation hub run by UK regulator the Financial Conduct Authority is a good start. It supports product and service launches and offers access to synthetic data sets for testing and development.

Fintech can help finance become more inclusive. But it needs policies and regulations that support innovation, promote competition, ensure financial stability and – most importantly – to help protect the citizens of these new cashless societies.

Thankom Arun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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