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Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War in Ukraine

Defense stocks to consider amid war in Ukraine position investors to profit from companies supporting international efforts to protect civilians and essential…

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Defense stocks to consider amid war in Ukraine position investors to profit from companies supporting international efforts to protect civilians and essential infrastructure from Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The defense stocks help the United States and its allies in preparing to fend off threats not only from Russia but from China, too. As the world’s most populous country with the second-largest economy, China recently has been described by top U.S. government officials as America’s biggest military and economic threat, requiring new defense and national security strategies.

The inflow of investment dollars to defense stocks as a means of portfolio protection against large declines in the broader market and the technology sector sell-off has been a major catalyst for “rerating in the sector,” according to BofA Global Research. Defense stocks have been fueled by strong support from the U.S. government amid one of the most “geopolitically tense environments” in recent years, BofA added.

Reinvestments in R&D Strengthen Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War

In the United States, defense spending has been rising steadily for the last 15 years to the benefit of both publicly traded and privately held companies. The advent of digital technologies, such as advanced metal manufacturing and robotics, have cut production costs and sped up project completion, according to BofA.

In addition, major investments in research and development (R&D) have allowed defense companies to vertically integrate to gain increased control of their own supply chains. Increased R&D by large defense prime contractors also is fortified by funding from the U.S Department of Defense (DoD).

Courtesy of www.StockRover.com. Learn about StockRover by clicking here.

Skousen Assesses Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War

Mark Skousen, the head of the Forecasts & Strategies investment newsletter and a leader of the Fast Money Alert trading service that invests in both stocks and options, questioned SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) founder Elon Musk at the annual Baron Investment Conference held in New York on Nov. 4. Skousen, who also is a Chapman University Presidential Fellow and recently was named the first Doti-Spogli Chair in Free Enterprise at its Argyros School of Business and Economics, now is avoiding Tesla largely due to the stock’s sky-high valuation, even though he has recommended it profitably in previous years.

Mark Skousen, a scion of Ben Franklin and head of Fast Money Alert, meets Paul Dykewicz.

Jim Woods, a seasoned investment guru, also is the leader of the Bullseye Stock Trader advisory service that recommends stocks and options. Woods, who concurrently heads the Intelligence Report investment newsletter, is a former Army paratrooper who has strategically invested in defense stocks. In fact, he recently recommended the stock and options in one of the traditional defense stocks.

Paul Dykewicz meets with Jim Woods, head of Bullseye Stock Trader.

Skousen and Woods team up on the Fast Money Alert trading service, and they combined to produce a short-term gain of nearly 10% with their Oct. 3 recommendation of defense, space and cyber consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH), of McLean, Virginia. The call options they recommended zoomed 239.27% in just 28 days before they advised selling.

CACI International Is One of the Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War

One of the defense stocks that looks to have room to rise further is CACI International Inc. (NYSE: CACI), a defense and cyber contractor in Reston, Virginia.  BofA placed a $380 price objective on CACI, well above its current share price.

CACI’s capital deployment strategy, including opportunistic share repurchases, offsets the discount related to the company’s lack of paying a dividend, unlike its defense industry peers. Plus, the company continues to executive its contract strategy, disciplined approach to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and its DoD priorities, BofA added.

Risks faced by CACI include any potential cuts to the DoD budget compared to expectations, as well as problems finding acquisition candidates. Further risks are integrating M&A, hiring the right personnel, containing costs, estimating costs and executing on fixed price contracts, as well as incurring reputational risk, BofA opined.

Outperformance could come from better-than-expected federal budget allocated to innovative technologies and modernization, inexpensive and well-integrated M&A activity, unexpected capital return to shareholders through dividends, market share gains in the mission technology arena and enhanced margin expansion, according to BofA.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War Include Leidos Holdings 

Another of the defense stocks to assess for investment is Leidos Holdings (NYSE: LDOS), also based in Reston, Virginia. Formerly known as Science Applications International Corporation, the company is involved in U.S. defense, aviation, information technology and biomedical research, providing scientific, engineering, systems integration and technical services.

BofA set a price target of $130 on Leidos, with a view that the company should trade in line with the defense prime contractors amid strong U.S. national security demand for innovative technologies and solutions. Other pluses are the company’s solid free cash flow, offset by a lumpy contract award environment, near-term supply chain pressures and mounting concerns about labor inflation.

Risks to attaining the price target are cuts to the U.S. government budget compared to expectations, increased competition from non-traditional competitors, problems integrating M&A, hiring the right personnel, containing  costs, estimating costs and executing on fixed price contracts, as well as sustaining reputational risk and future awards.

Potential outperformance could come from a better-than-anticipated federal budget allocated to innovative technologies and modernization, inexpensive and well integrated M&A activity, unexpected capital return to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks, market share gains, along with better-than-expected margin expansion, BofA wrote.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Michelle O’Connell, who leads Dallas-based Portia Capital Management, recommends Leidos as a strong mid-cap defense stock that is not covered as prominently as the large-cap stocks in the industry. The company has a large domestic customer base that produces 90% of its revenues.

Leidos serves the DoD, U.S. intelligence agencies, Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Veteran Affairs. With foreign government revenues currently accounting for less than 10% of the company’s total sales, that segment of the business could present “a great opportunity,” Connell counseled.  The United Kingdom, Germany and other NATO allies are looking at improving their military intelligence and cyber security.

Strong consistent cash-flow generation during the last 10 years has reached at least $500 billion, Connell continued. To fuel future growth, Leidos spent more than $700 million for capital expenditures in 2021. Given the emphasis on cyber warfare, the timing of this investment is opportunistic.

Connell calculated recent contract wins in December 2022 of $102 million for the U.S. Army and $39 million for the U.S. Air Force. She gives the stock an upside potential of 15%.

Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War Feature Teledyne

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (NYSE:TDY), of Thousand Oaks, California, is another of the defense stocks to consider amid the current war in Ukraine. One of its business units gained an award for 500 additional robots requested by the U.S. Army and Navy.

Teledyne FLIR Defense, part of Teledyne Technologies Inc., announced that it has received new orders worth $62.1 million from the U.S. Armed Services for its advanced, multi-mission robots. The U.S. Army, Navy, and other command centers placed orders for nearly 500 more Centaur unmanned ground systems (UGS), including additional spares, antennas and payload mounting kits.​ The award raises the value of the original Man Transportable Robot System Increment II (MTRS Inc. II) contract from roughly $190 million to more than $250 million.​

Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) teams use the Teledyne FLIR Centaur ground robot to disable unexploded ordnance (UXO), improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and landmines, as well as perform other dangerous tasks. Operators can quickly attach different sensors and payloads to the robot to address additional dangerous missions, including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats.​

In 2017, the Army chose Centaur as its MTRS Inc. II solution for a multi-year program. Since then, other U.S. military branches have opted to deploy Centaur to their EOD units as a new or replacement ground robot system. Orders totaling more than 1,800 Centaurs have come from the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps since 2020.

Robots Become a Vital Way to Protect People from Becoming Combat Casualties

Teledyne’s Centaur platform has proven to provide versatile and sought after tactical Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) to support America’s military, said Tom Frost, general manager of Unmanned Ground Systems at Teledyne FLIR Defense. The robots can substitute for U.S. or allied warfighters depend on risky and sometimes deadly missions.

Centaur also can be used effectively for UXO clearance in hotspots such as Ukraine, Frost said. With global security threats on the rise, allied nations can leverage this multi-purpose robot to support a wide array of manned and unmanned operations, Frost added.​

The Teledyne FLIR Centaur is a medium-sized UGV that provides a standoff capability to detect, confirm, identify, and dispose of hazards. Weighing roughly 160 pounds, the Interoperability Protocol (IOP) robot features an advanced camera, a manipulator arm that reaches six-plus feet and stair-climbing capability.​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

The Teledyne FLIR business unit is a world leader in intelligent sensing, unmanned systems and integrated solutions for defense and industrial markets, with roughly 4,000 employees worldwide. Founded in 1978, the company develops a wide range of advanced technologies.

Its parent company, Teledyne Technologies, provides sophisticated digital imaging products and software, instrumentation, aerospace and defense electronics, and engineered systems. Teledyne’s operations are primarily located in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Western and Northern Europe.

​BofA placed an $647 price target on Teledyne. Risks to achieving that objective include problems integrating FlIR, another downturn in industrials. a significant decline in the DoD budget and an exogenous event that prevents international sales, the investment firm opined.

General Dynamics Is Among Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), a global aerospace and defense company based in Reston, Virginia, is another recommendation of BofA, as well as stock picker Jim Woods for his monthly Intelligence Report investment newsletter. The company produces combat vehicles, nuclear-powered submarines and communications systems to provide safety and security.

Plus, the company’s defense program exposure to land and sea priorities, coupled with its Gulfstream business jet manufacturing segment, could spur near-term and medium-term organic growth. General Dynamics also has a strong balance sheet and solid cash generation, aiding dividend growth and share repurchases, BofA added.

BofA set a price objective of $325 on General Dynamics, noting it faces risks. On the defense side of its business, the risks include possible poor execution on defense programs hurting margins and any U.S. Defense Department budget cutting medium- and long-term growth. General Dynamics rose 21.40% in 2022 but BofA expects further gains in 2023.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Raytheon Rates as One of the Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War

Raytheon Technologies Corp. (NYSE: RTX), of Waltham, Massachusetts, is yet one more buy recommendation among defense stocks followed by BofA. The multinational aerospace and defense conglomerate is one of the largest aerospace, intelligence services and defense manufacturing providers in the world, based on revenue and market capitalization.

BofA gave Raytheon a price target of $120, based partly on a blend of U.S. defense and global commercial aerospace growth. Risks to attaining that price objective are a potential downturn in commercial aviation due to the natural business cycle or an exogenous event such as a terrorist attack or a renewed pandemic threat. A severe global economic slowdown would affect top-line growth, since 45% of sales are generated outside the United States.

Execution risk on defense programs could result in cost overruns and margin contractions, BofA added. Orders from international programs are difficult to time due to the complexity of the process. Thus, lumpiness could occur with international orders. Another blow could come from unexpected cancellations to military or commercial programs.

Outperformance could come from commercial aerospace and business aviation jet recoveries or earnings beating projections, BofA wrote. If margins fare better than forecast, there could be upside potential to the investment firm’s valuation of Raytheon. If the company executes on existing programs better than expected, gains share in the international market or makes a materially accretive acquisition, the reward could be better-than-anticipated upside in the shares, BofA wrote.

Despite the market falling overall in 2022, Raytheon rose 19.33% for the full year and has the potential to climb further in 2023.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

China’s COVID Cases Climb Steeply After Relaxing Zero-Tolerance Policy

The number of COVID-19 cases has reached a record high in mainland China, peaking on Dec. 2, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). In the past three weeks, the number of cases in China has fallen, likely also due to the conducting of a reduced number of tests to detect cases.

The U.S. government will require mandatory negative tests starting Thursday, Jan. 5, for all passengers seeking to enter the country from China, after the latter country reported a spike in COVID-19 cases last month. France and several other countries also mandated clean COVID-19 tests for passengers arriving from China, reflecting global concern that new variants could emerge in the ongoing outbreak.

China has been accused of a lack of transparency since the virus emerged in late 2019. The worry is that China may not be sharing data about any evolving strains that could spark fresh outbreaks in other countries.

Along with the United States, Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Italy have announced passengers from China would need to test negative for COVID. An internal meeting of China’s National Health Commission estimated that up to 248 million people contracted the coronavirus over the first 20 days of December. COVID-19 is roaring through cities in China after its government recently chose to ease its strict anti-virus controls.

China’s leaders reconsidered their Zero-tolerance policy for COVID cases that had been in effect the last three years. Large protests in many of China’s cities in November 2022 may have convinced the nation’s leaders to modify the policy of strictly locking down communities where COVID outbreaks occurred.

China’s economy may gain a short-term boost from relaxing its COVID-19-related lockdowns, but a spike in cases and deaths could cause shutdowns to be ordered again by government leaders. Lockdowns cut the supply of goods and prevent many people from working, shopping and obtaining food and water without assistance. A real estate slump also may ensue.

U.S. COVID Cases Exceed 100.8 Million

COVID-19 cases in the United States totaled 100,843,810, while deaths reached 1,093,028, as of Jan. 3, according to Johns Hopkins University. Until recent news that estimated China had 248 million cases of COVID-19, America had the dreaded distinction as the nation with the most coronavirus cases and deaths. Worldwide COVID-19 deaths soared to 6,693,965 people, with total cases of 661,642,654, Johns Hopkins announced on Jan. 3.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 268,363,272 people, or 80.8% the U.S. population, have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, as of Dec. 28. People who have completed the primary COVID-19 doses totaled 229,135,170 of the U.S. population, or 69%, according to the CDC. The United States also has given a bivalent COVID-19 booster to 44,711,483 people who are age 18 and up, equaling 17.3% as of Dec.28, rising from 16.8% last week, up from 16.3% the prior week and jumping from 15.5% the week before that one.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky’s secret Dec. 21 flight to Washington, D.C., allowed him to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden. Zelensky also addressed a joint session of Congress that evening.  Zelensky’s surprise visit marked his first international trip since Russia’s invasion. The trip required Zelensky to travel by train to Poland, where he boarded a U.S. military aircraft to fly to America. He took the trip to rally support for additional funding for Ukraine’s defense from Russia’s unrelenting aggression.

Russia launched 16 so-called “kamikaze” drones into Ukraine under the cover of darkness early Friday morning, Dec. 30, a day after firing dozens of missiles at civilian targets, power plants and other critical infrastructure. They mark the latest attacks against Ukraine that have left roughly 10 million people there in darkness without heat or electricity amid frigid winter weather.

At least 76 missiles also were launched by Russia at major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv and Sumy, on Friday, Dec. 16, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Russia is continuing its onslaught of intensified strikes that began in October, targeting Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure.

Defense stocks to consider amid war in Ukraine include companies that are supplying the United States and its allies with a variety of equipment that largely is proving effective in countering Russia’s attacks. With Russia showing no sign of withdrawing to its original borders with its pre-2014 borders with Ukraine, demand should remain high for the kinds of products and services provided by the defense stocks that investors should consider amid war.

Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, Guru Focus and other publications and websites. Paul, who can be followed on Twitter @PaulDykewicz, is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper. Special Holiday Offer: Paul is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The uplifting book is great gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many others. Call 202-677-4457 for special pricing on multiple-book purchases.

The post Defense Stocks to Consider Amid War in Ukraine appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Economic Death Spiral

Economic Death Spiral

Authored by Robert Stark via Substack,

Fed Trap: Financial Collapse or Hyper Inflation?

With this banking crisis,…

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March 21, 2023

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Economic Death Spiral

Authored by Robert Stark via Substack,

Fed Trap: Financial Collapse or Hyper Inflation?

With this banking crisis, which has serious Lehman vibes, it is a good time to revisit my article, Is This The End of The End of History, from March of last year. The article dealt with the theme of collapse vs stagnation, and historical cycles, in light of the Ukraine war, the post-pandemic climate, the onset of inflation, and speculation about economic collapse. A point of mine, that has especially been vindicated, is that “a delay in the Fed raising interest rates, could cause a short term rally in stocks, further expanding the bubble. The bigger the bubble, the worse inflation gets, and the longer the Fed keeps delaying raising rates, the worse the crash will be down the road.” For the most part, most of my geopolitical and economic forecasts have come true, though I actually predicted an economic collapse to occur sooner, which actually vindicates that point, that kicking the can down the road will just create a much worse crisis.

Despite countless signs of economic volatility, the recent bank failures, with shockwaves to the entire financial system, are a turning point, where it is clear that there is going to be a severe economic downturn. For instance, Elon Musk recently said, lot of current year similarities to 1929, and Moody’s cut the outlook on the entire U.S. banking system to negative from stable, citing a "rapidly deteriorating operating environment." Even the perma bulls, mainstream media, and financial “experts,” can no longer deny the obvious signs of economic peril. However, the bullish propaganda was still strong as recently as January, which was really the bulls’ last gasp, with the monkey rally, in response to the Fed only raising interest rates by .25 points, plus economic data showing record low unemployment plus a dip in inflation.

It is important to emphasize that the same figures in media, banking, and government, who were recently shilling a soft landing or mild recession, were previously saying that inflation is transitory. It is especially laughable to think that there are people who take someone like CNBC’s, Jim Cramer, seriously, who in 2008 told his audience don’t be silly on Bear Stearns, right before it crashed, and more recently shilled for Silicon Valley Bank, and is still predicting a soft landing. A lot of the recent propaganda is practically identical to right before the 08 crash, as well as during stagflation in the 70s, and even before the Great Depression, as the media has vested economic and political interests in propping up the markets. The financial YouTuber, Maverick of Wall Street, brilliantly uses this “self-love” gif of  Jack Nicholson, from the film, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, as a metaphor for whenever perma-bulls see any data that may signify a Fed pivot, causing stocks to rally. As the desperation really kicks in, expect further talk of a soft landing, as well as more rallies in stocks, as we saw in response to the bailouts, as well as desperate investors switching back and forth between the NASDAQ and S&P500, which happened in 08. So any return to bullish sentiment is actually a sign of greater economic catastrophe. The stock market rallying over bad economy news, as a sign of a potential pivot, just further shows that the markets are not a good metric for the health of the economy. Not to mention that the top 1% own over half of all stocks.

It has always been the case with bubbles, that the greater the size of the bubble, the more copes to deny reality, and the more vested interests there are in preventing the inevitable crash. Certainly many corporations and banks have made economic decisions based upon an assumption of a soft landing or Fed pivot. This also explains the gaslighting to justify that the 2010s economic boom, especially in tech, was based upon productivity and innovation, when it was primary due to Fed monetary policy, plus data mining in the case of Big Tech. While it is silly for conservatives to blame wokeness as the primary culprit of bank failures, wokeness and bullshit DEI jobs, are a symptom of the corruption that Fed policy enabled. 

Fed Balance Sheet: Return to QE

Source

The current banking crisis is triggering more stock buybacks, and a return to Quantitative Easing with the bank bailouts, including plans to inject another $2 Trillion into the banking system, on top of the $300 billion increase in the Fed’s Balance Sheet, in just the last week. This seems counter intuitive, as QE caused inflation, but the economy is so addicted to the “Cocaine,” that is  cheap money. So basically quantitative tightening is being implemented and interest rates raised  to stop inflation, but as soon as the first major economic disruption of raising rates is felt, then a return to financial policies to further prop up the bubble, causing more inflation. Now the Fed is trapped with two bad options, raise rates or pivot, both of which will lead to inevitable economic doom.

Populists can talk about nationalizing the banks into public debt free banking, and Austrian School libertarians can call for ending the Fed, and returning to a gold standard. While it is true that the Federal Reserve is a corrupt system, that is quasi private in how private banks own shares, the reality is that we are stuck with this system of relying upon the Fed’s interest rates, for the incoming economic crisis. If the Fed continues raising rates, there will be a liquidity crisis, with more bank failures. While interest rates were close to zero, banks used uninsured deposits to both invest in securities and purchase bonds, and thanks to fractional reserve banking, banks are only required to hold a fraction of deposits. So when rates rose, bonds fell in value and unrealized losses surged, so the banks were not able to pay off their depositors.

source  

Regional banks make up about half of all US banking, so any contagion in the banking system, as people and businesses move their deposits to mega banks, deemed “too big to fail,” could trigger a Depression. One of the main reasons that the economy has not crashed sooner is because more people have been tapping into their savings and maxing out their credit cards. However, high interest rates will cause many people to default on their credit card debt, which will exacerbate the banking crisis. Not to mention Auto loans defaults wiping out credit unions, and the potential for another mortgage crisis, due to rising mortgage rates. There is a ripple effect, as far as rising interest rates being felt by debt holders, and now is just the tip of the iceberg. This could end up being a multifaceted debt crisis, in banking, corporate debt, personal debt, and government debt.

Besides the Fed likely pivoting soon due to the banking crisis, higher rates will make interest payments on the National Debt too expensive to pay off, risking a default on government debt. Overall levels of debt, both public and private, are much worse than when Fed Chair, Volcker, raised rates very high to successfully quell inflation. Any freeze in Federal spending or a default on the national debt, in response to the debt ceiling, will crash the economy, and any major extension in the debt ceiling will accelerate inflation. There is a good chance that inflation will be tolerated, with the dollar greatly devalued, to make government debt cheaper so that creditors eat the costs.

Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation

A tight labor market is the main case that the bulls make to prove a strong economy. However, the official BLS jobs numbers are “baked” to exclude those who have given up on seeking employment, as well as counting 2nd or 3rd jobs. Not to mention that the BLS numbers were exposed by the Fed as overstating 1 million jobs during 2022. Even if one accepts the “baked” numbers, layoffs have a lagging effect on unemployment, including by industry (eg. tech layoffs before service sector). Now new jobless claims have grown at the fastest pace since Lehman'. It is also noteworthy that just about every recession has been preceded by low unemployment numbers. The increase in layoffs will put further pressure on the Fed to pivot, which on top of increased unemployment benefits, will cause inflation to surge again. This creates another doom loop, as inflation leads to more unemployment, as consumers are forced to cut back on spending.

Source: ZeroHedge

While bulls can say that this time is different from past crashes, all of the signs are pointing to this crisis being much worse than previous crashes. For instance, the economic recovery, after Volcker was done raising rates to fight inflation, was possible because of lower levels of debt, but the US has never entered a recession with debt/GDP at 125% and deficit/GDP at 7% in at least 85 years. Also the fallout of the 2008 crash was mitigated by a strong dollar, which also minimized the effects of inflation last year, but inflation will surge if the dollar is weakened. Despite signs of a pivot, the Fed has been moving much faster to fight inflation, then in the past, even with Volker. This crisis is also unique in that rates are being raised while entering a severe recession, and inflation could coincide mass layoffs. While the general assumption is that severe economic downturns are deflationary, financial commentator, Peter Schiff, makes a compelling case as for why an Inflationary Depression is a likelihood. Under this nightmare scenario, which would be much worse than even the Great Depression, inflation will negate any of the remedies that ended past crises, such as the New Deal, quantitative easing in 08, and the covid stimulus. Other signs of economic peril include, the steepest yield curve inversion since the early 80s recession, which is a barometer that has predicted just about every single recession, a major decline in ISM manufacturing sales, a big decline in savings rates, and Americans’ credit card debt approaching a record $1 Trillion.

source

This is the perfect storm with inflation, stagflation, recession, a potential debt crisis, as well as energy and supply chain issues. With this bubble to end all bubbles or too big to fail on steroids, the Fed has two choices, cause a liquidity crisis by shrinking the money supply, or letting inflation rip. While raising rates appears to be the least bad of these two options, further rate hikes are futile with the return of QE. A combo of QE plus interest rates having to remain high, is what could lead to that scenario of inflationary financial collapse, that Peter Schiff warned about. Though most likely it will either be long term stagflation or a deflationary Depression. This is not a hyperbole, nor clickbait, but a Depression is a very real possibility, especially if policy makers continue to kick the can down the road, to prop up the bubble.

*  *  *

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Three Years To Slow The Spread: COVID Hysteria & The Creation Of A Never-Ending Crisis

Three Years To Slow The Spread: COVID Hysteria & The Creation Of A Never-Ending Crisis

Authored by Jordan Schachtel via ‘The Dossier’…

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March 21, 2023

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Three Years To Slow The Spread: COVID Hysteria & The Creation Of A Never-Ending Crisis

Authored by Jordan Schachtel via 'The Dossier' Substack,

Last Thursday marked the three year anniversary of the infamous “15 Days To Slow The Spread” campaign.

By March 16, yours truly was already pretty fed up with both the governmental and societal “response” to what was being baselessly categorized as the worst pandemic in 100 years, despite zero statistical data supporting such a serious claim.

I was living in the Washington, D.C. Beltway at the time, and it was pretty much impossible to find a like-minded person within 50 miles who also wasn’t taking the bait. After I read about the news coming out of Wuhan in January, I spent much of the next couple weeks catching up to speed and reading about what a modern pandemic response was supposed to look like.

What surprised me most was that none of “the measures” were mentioned, and that these designated “experts” were nothing more than failed mathematicians, government doctors, and college professors who were more interested in policy via shoddy academic forecasting than observing reality.

Within days of continually hearing their yapping at White House pressers, It quickly became clear that the Deborah Birx’s and Anthony Fauci’s of the world were engaging in nothing more than a giant experiment. There was no an evidence-based approach to managing Covid whatsoever. These figures were leaning into the collective hysteria, and brandishing their credentials as Public Health Experts to demand top-down approaches to stamping out the WuFlu.

To put it bluntly, these longtime government bureaucrats had no idea what the f—k they were doing. Fauci and his cohorts were not established or reputable scientists, but authoritarians, charlatans, who had a decades-long track record of hackery and corruption. This Coronavirus Task Force did not have the collective intellect nor the wisdom to be making these broad brush decisions.

Back then, there were only literally a handful of people who attempted to raise awareness about the wave of tyranny, hysteria, and anti-science policies that were coming our way. There were so few of us back in March in 2020 that it was impossible to form any kind of significant structured resistance to the madness that was unfolding before us. These structures would later form, but not until the infrastructure for the highway to Covid hysteria hell had already been cemented.

Making matters worse was the reality that the vast majority of the population — friends, colleagues, peers and family included — agreed that dissenters were nothing more than reckless extremists, bioterrorists, Covid deniers, anti-science rabble rousers, and the like.

Yet we were right, and we had the evidence and data to prove it. There was no evidence to ever support such a heavy-handed series of government initiatives to “slow the spread.”

By March 16, 2020, data had already accumulated indicating that this contagion would be no more lethal than an influenza outbreak.

The February, 2020 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship provided a clear signal that the hysteria models provided by Bill Gates-funded and managed organizations were incredibly off base. Of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess, about 20% tested positive with Covid. The majority of those who tested positive had zero symptoms. By the time all passengers had disembarked from the vessel, there were 7 reported deaths on the ship, with the average age of this cohort being in the mid 80s, and it wasn’t even clear if these passengers died from or with Covid.

Despite the strange photos and videos coming out of Wuhan, China, there was no objective evidence of a once in a century disease approaching America’s shores, and the Diamond Princess outbreak made that clear.

Of course, it wasn’t the viral contagion that became the problem.

It was the hysteria contagion that brought out the worst qualities of much of the global ruling class, letting world leaders take off their proverbial masks in unison and reveal their true nature as power drunk madmen.

And even the more decent world leaders were swept up in the fear and mayhem, turning over the keys of government control to the supposed all-knowing Public Health Experts.

They quickly shuttered billions of lives and livelihoods, wreaking exponentially more havoc than a novel coronavirus ever could.

In the United States, 15 Days to Slow The Spread quickly became 30 Days To Slow The Spread. Somewhere along the way, the end date for “the measures” was removed from the equation entirely.

3 years later, there still isn’t an end date…

Anthony Fauci appeared on MSNBC Thursday morning and declared that Americans would need annual Covid boosters to compliment their Flu shots.

So much of the Covid hysteria era was driven by pseudoscience and outright nonsense, and yet, very few if any world leaders took it upon themselves to restore sanity in their domains. Now, unsurprisingly, so many elected officials who were complicit in this multi-billion person human tragedy won’t dare to reflect upon it.

In a 1775 letter from John Adams to his wife, Abigail, the American Founding Father wrote:

“Liberty once lost is lost forever. When the People once surrender their share in the Legislature, and their Right of defending the Limitations upon the Government, and of resisting every Encroachment upon them, they can never regain it.”

Covid hysteria and the 3 year anniversary of 15 Days To Slow The Spread serves as the beginning period of a permanent scar resulting from government power grabs and federal overreach.

While life is back to normal in most of the country, the Overton window of acceptable policy has slid even further in the direction of push-button tyranny. Hopefully, much of the world has awakened to the reality that most of the people in charge aren’t actually doing what’s best for their respective populations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/21/2023 - 18:05

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From the bed sheets to the TV remote, a microbiologist reveals the shocking truth about dirt and germs in hotel rooms

The filthy secrets of hotel rooms and why you might want to pack disinfectant on your next trip.

Published

5 hours ago

on

March 21, 2023

By

Relaxing in filth? Pexels/Cottonbro studio

For most of us, staying in a hotel room is either something of a necessity – think business travel – or something to look forward to as part of a holiday or wider excursion.

But what if I told you there’s a large chance your hotel room, despite how it might appear to the naked eye, isn’t that clean. And even if it’s an expensive room, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s any less dirty.

Indeed, whoever has stayed in your room prior to you will have deposited bacteria, fungi and viruses all over the furniture, carpets, curtains and surfaces. What remains of these germ deposits depends on how efficiently your room is cleaned by hotel staff. And let’s face it, what is considered clean by a hotel might be different to what you consider clean.

Typically, assessment of hotel room cleanliness is based on sight and smell observations –- not on the invisible microbiology of the space, which is where the infection risks reside. So let’s take a deep dive into the world of germs, bugs and viruses to find out what might be lurking where.

It starts at the lift

Before you even enter your room, think of the hotel lift buttons as germ hotspots. They are being pressed all the time by many different people, which can transfer microorganisms onto the button surface, as well back onto the presser’s fingers.

Communal door handles can be similar in terms of germ presence unless sanitised regularly. Wash your hands or use a hand sanitiser after using a handle before you next touch your face or eat or drink.

The most common infections people pick up from hotel rooms are tummy bugs – diarrhoea and vomiting – along with respiratory viruses, such as colds and pneumonia, as well as COVID-19, of course.

Hotel door opening.
Welcome to germ paradise. Pexels/Pixabay

Toilets and bathrooms tend to be cleaned more thoroughly than the rest of a hotel room and are often the least bacteriologically colonised environments.

Though if the drinking glass in the bathroom is not disposable, wash it before use (body wash or shampoo are effective dishwashers), as you can never be sure if they’ve been cleaned properly. Bathroom door handles may also be colonised by pathogens from unwashed hands or dirty washcloths.

Beware the remote

The bed, sheets and pillows can also be home to some unwanted visitors. A 2020 study found that after a pre-symptomatic COVID-19 patient occupied a hotel room there was significant viral contamination of many surfaces, with levels being particularly high within the sheets, pillow case and quilt cover.

While sheets and pillowcases may be more likely to be changed between occupants, bedspreads may not, meaning these fabrics may become invisible reservoirs for pathogens – as much as a toilet seat. Though in some cases sheets aren’t always changed between guests, so it may be better to just bring your own.

Less thought about is what lives on the hotel room desk, bedside table, telephone, kettle, coffee machine, light switch or TV remote – as these surfaces aren’t always sanitised between occupancies.

TV remote lying on pink bedding.
Handle with care: the TV remote is often one of the dirtiest items in a hotel room. Pexels/Karolina grabowska

Viruses such as the norovirus can live in an infectious form for days on hard surfaces, as can COVID-19 – and the typical time interval between room changeovers is often less than 12 hours.

Soft fabric furnishings such as cushions, chairs, curtains and blinds are also difficult to clean and may not be sanitised other than to remove stains between guests, so washing your hands after touching them might be a good idea.

Uninvited guests

If all those germs and dirty surfaces aren’t enough to contend with, there are also bedbugs to think about. These bloodsucking insects are experts at secreting themselves into narrow, small spaces, remaining dormant without feeding for months.

Small spaces include the cracks and crevices of luggage, mattresses and bedding. Bed bugs are widespread throughout Europe, Africa, the US and Asia – and are often found in hotels. And just because a room looks and smells clean, doesn’t mean there may not be bed bugs lurking.

Woman making bed in hoteroom.
Get those cushions off the bed straightaway. Pexels/Cottonbro studio

Fortunately, bed bug bites are unlikely to give you a transmissible disease, but the bite areas can become inflamed and infected. For the detection of bedbugs, reddish skin bites and blood spots on sheets are signs of an active infestation (use an antiseptic cream on the bites).

Other signs can be found on your mattress, behind the headboard and inside drawers and the wardrobe: brown spots could be remains of faeces, bed bug skins are brownish-silvery looking and live bed bugs are brown coloured and typically one to seven millimetres in length.

Inform the hotel if you think there are bed bugs in your room. And to avoid taking them with you when you checkout, carefully clean your luggage and clothes before opening them at home.

As higher-status hotels tend to have more frequent room usage, a more expensive room at a five-star hotel does not necessarily mean greater cleanliness, as room cleaning costs reduce profit margins. So wherever you’re staying, take with you a pack of antiseptic wipes and use them on the hard surfaces in your hotel room.

Also, wash or sanitise your hands often – especially before you eat or drink anything. And take slippers or thick socks with you so you can avoid walking barefoot on hotel carpets – known to be another dirt hotspot. And after all that, enjoy your stay.

Primrose Freestone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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