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Dalls Fed President Robert Kaplan: Expect a severe economic contraction in the Q2

Dalls Fed President Robert Kaplan: Expect a severe economic contraction in the Q2

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CNBC transcript: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Speaks with CNBC’s Steve Liesman on “Squawk on the Street” today on expecting a severe economic contraction in the second quarter

 

From CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street

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Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

 

Dallas Fed president: Expect a severe economic contraction in the second quarter

 

STEVE LIESMAN: Yeah. Maybe the perfect guest to have right after that news from Joe Kernen from the President there. Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed, thanks for joining us this morning.

ROBERT KAPLAN: Yeah, good to talk to you, Steve.

STEVE LIESMAN: I guess I should start with the news. You have been following the -- you are in the oil patch -- you are almost the Federal Reserve President for the oil patch given your position in Texas. Tell us what you think the impact of the production cut from Saudi Arabia and Russia might have.

ROBERT KAPLAN: Well, it’s obviously welcome, it will be very welcome by the industry in the short-run. As long the coronavirus continues, there’s just a substantial amount of excess capacity being generated every day. As you know, so much excess supply being generated every day. So much so that we’re starting to worry about storage capacity for it. So, this, this will be extremely helpful.

It will be particularly helpful as we come out of this virus, and it will speed the time where the supply-demand for oil can get into balance. But we’re a long, long way from that. And people had warned even with the substantial move from Saudi Arabia and Russia, we’re going to be spending a substantial amount of time working off a high level of oversupply. That’s still true, but this obviously helps.

Severe economic contraction detailed

STEVE LIESMAN: President Kaplan, I want to ask you a question about the outlook for the economy. We went into this with the general belief this was going to be very painful in the second quarter with a rebound in the third quarter. I’m wondering if that’s your view or if there’s growing concern that what’s going to happen or what’s happening right now might be something that would create lingering weakness in the third quarter, such that the rebound may be further out this year?

ROBERT KAPLAN: Well, so we’re, like everyone else, we’re looking at various models of when the curve begins to flatten. And, you know, still based on our models our judgment is severe economic contraction in the second quarter. Probably some negative GDP at the start of the third quarter. And then a rebound. The issue is what’s the strength of the rebound? And, the reason we’re trying to come to grips with that into the third and fourth quarter is, as you and I have talked before, business fixed investment for the last couple of years has been sluggish. Manufacturing has been sluggish. The bright spot of the economy, the underpinning, has been the consumer.

And clearly, the consumer is going to come out of this weakened from what we’ve had in the past. We’re going to have, we think, we’re going to have unemployment that’s going to get in the low to mid-teens. We will likely end the year though, we believe, below 10% unemployment. Probably closer to 8%. But then it is going to take a while to work it off. And so, the consumer is going to be much more cautious for obvious reasons. So, there’s just an open question about what the strength of the consumer is going to be once we get past this virus, and we get into the fourth quarter and we get into 2021. And I think that’s a big challenge and question mark for the economy.

Severe economic contraction and unemployment

STEVE LIESMAN: President Kaplan, in light of that, I know the Federal Reserve has done a lot, but in the department of what have you done for me lately, I wonder if you can discuss additional things the Fed might be considering at this point. There’s a main street lending facilitate and there’s talk about state governments being in really severe problems right now. For example, New York State, not getting very much income. I imagine states across the country are going to have problems. What else is the Federal Reserve considering here that might be able to help the economy right?

ROBERT KAPLAN: So, I want to be cautious about what I talk about. But obviously, the Main Street Lending Program, the Fed is working at breakneck speed to get it up and running. It’s essential that we get that running as soon as possible. Because small businesses are desperately depending on assistance, and we want to preserve as many jobs and also, have as many small businesses come out of this as possible. So, that’s one thing. But that’s public information.

Regarding municipal securities, municipal situation, we’re buying commercial paper municipalities. It’s clear as you said, municipalities need assistance. They have to balance their budgets every year. They’re not getting tax revenues. And so, it’s -- for investment-grade municipalities, creditworthy municipalities, it’s understandable why that is a topic in the same way that we’re already buying investment-grade corporate bonds.

SARA EISEN: President Kaplan, Sara Eisen. Great to talk to you.

ROBER KAPLAN: Great to talk to you.

Lending

SARA EISEN: Just help us understand how you think about initial jobless claims number like we got today. 6.6 million Americans filing for unemployment. How has that changed our economy? How many of those are jobs lost for good? And hw should we be thinking about the damage that this is doing from a jobs perspective and a broader economic perspective?

ROBERT KAPLAN: Okay, so the way I think about that, roughly speaking, there’s the workforce of the United States is 160 million workers. And so, I mentioned earlier that it’s our view at the Dallas Fed that we’re going to get into unemployment in the low to mid-teens. So, I may not be a good judge of the pace of getting there will be, but I feel pretty strongly we’re going to get to that.

And so, if that’s the case, it means something like low to mid-teens percentage of 160 million workers are, for at least some period of time, going to be unemployed and sit on unemployment claims. The 3 million last week and the 6 million today is consistent with that. Probably not going to be a great judge of what the pace of it is going to be, but I think that’s where we’re heading.

SARA EISEN: Yeah. It’s depressing numbers. I wanted to also ask you about the markets. I mean, obviously the Fed has taken on the role of firefighter and chief. You mentioned intervening in the immunity markets, the credit markets, foreign exchange markets. I mean, we’ve seen a lot of blockages and issues out there. What’s your issue as to how effective the Fed has been in stepping in and are you pleased that it’s freeing up some of these systems well enough at this point?

Severe economic contraction and local governments

ROBERT KAPLAN: Yeah, and it’s -- this is -- it seems like years ago, but it was just a few weeks ago we started with the Treasury Market and then mortgage-backed securities markets and now have intervened and have programs that are either working or about to be activated for a whole range of other markets, corporate bonds. We’re already doing commercial paper. Money market funds. Municipal community paper. And by and large, the markets now are working reasonably well. There’s still some stresses we’re seeing. And it is notable that with everything we’re doing, though, credit spreads are wider, including for investment-grade debt.

Even though we’ve got a program for investment-grade debt, I think since the start of this crisis even credit spreads for triple Bs are 250 basis points wider and obviously much wider than that for less than investment grade.

So, that’s not a market function issue. That’s a pricing issue. And there have been some strains, which have been well discussed in aspects of the mortgage market. And so, we’re also aware of that and focused on that. But I think, by and large, the markets are working reasonably well. We’re watching very carefully for stresses. But while they’re working well, the cost of credit, particularly for corporates, has increased.

Leverage

STEVE LIESMAN: President Kaplan, along those lines, the Federal Reserve yesterday reduced easement of some leverage ratios. Should the banks get more relief on some of the Dodd Frank leverage and capital ratios to help them play a bigger role in aiding the economy? And on the flip side of that, should the banks be forced to stop paying dividends, in your opinion?

ROBERT KAPLAN: So, we are asking a lot of the banks right now, in that a number of the programs that we’re implementing right now, the Main Street program is an example, and obviously what the SBA is doing is going through the banks. A number of programs are going through the banks. And we’re asking the banks to exhibit forbearance on credit situations. And so, I think changing the leverage ratio in a crisis is quite appropriate.

We want the banks to have as much latitude as possible because we’re working a lot of these programs through them. I’m well aware that the UK banks have suspended their dividends, and I’m not going to comment on that here. We will be doing stress testing coming up and I think we have a regime in place where we make judgments about share repurchase and capital returns based on stress testing. And I still think that’s a good method and we should continue to follow that.

CARL QUINTANILLA: President Kaplan, you’ve made -- we all know that the emergency patch is ground zero for the retrenchment in Capex. And it was already coming in and you’ve talked a lot about that. When we think about the lingering effects of the virus, beyond Q2 and Q3 and the longer-term impacts on overall Capex, what does that do to economic potential in this country over the next couple of years?

Severe economic contraction and Capex

ROBERT KAPLAN: I mean, it is a concern in that coming out of this I can tell you Capex in the emergency patch is going to be lower. Even before the virus, we thought Capex in the emergency patch would be down 10% - 15%. It’s now, we believe, going to be down much more than that. And energy Capex is a big part of business investment. And so, unless there are other programs or -- left as it is, you should expect business if I canned investment is going to be weak.

Again, it really -- the consumer has been the underpinning of the economy. The service sector has been the underpinning of the economy. And we know that because of this shutdown, the service sector is going to come out, I think, more challenged, and the consumer is going to come out more challenged. So, that’s on the fiscal side, away from the Fed, it means there’s going to have to be more fiscal action to deal with that.

What’s been done so far has been essential, but I would put it in the category of relief. It’s basically made sure individuals continue to be able to sustain, small businesses can continue to sustain, markets continue to function. But beyond that, I think we’ll need stimulus from here. It’s not surprising that’s beginning to get discussed. That’s not a Fed decision. That’s a Congress fiscal authority decision. But it’s going to be needed.

Oil prices

DAVID FABER: President Kaplan, it’s David Faber. If I could come back specifically to the energy industry, which you started the interview discussing. And we should point out by the way oil prices are now up almost 30% on Joe Kernen’s reporting on the conversation he had with the president and I believe his tweet as well about a $10 million barrel reduction in production from the Russians and potentially the Saudis. But to your point, President Kaplan, the global oversupply continues. I think it’s 24 million barrels a day. 6 million barrels in the U.S. What are your predictions for the energy industry given that, even with this potential 10 million barrels not coming to market every day, it would seem it is a very difficult industry to be in?

ROBERT KAPLAN: It is. And so, we do widespread surveys and we talk to contacts throughout the industry. And, you know, at a number even in the low 30s, it’s challenging for many producers, drillers to make a profit.

So, we would expect that a number of -- with this amount of oversupply that’s going to go on, there’s going to be a consolidation in the industry. There will be some producers that are going to struggle to make it through. And then you have the service providers that provide them services. They will struggle to go through this. Some of them are highly leveraged. And so we would expect you’re going to see lower Capex, restructure, fewer players on the other end and there’s lots of discussions about how to preserve as much of the Permian basin and infrastructure and producers there and service sector as possible. But that’s going to be a challenge even with this move today that you’re describing. Because the oversupply is so substantial.

STEVE LIESMAN: President Kaplan, I’m wondering if beyond the oil business which is a big part of your district, but not the only part of it, what else are you hearing from companies, small businesses, large businesses, medium businesses, how long can they sustain this shutdown in the U.S. economy before we start to effect real challenge or permanent damage to the economy?

Small businesses in times of a severe economic contraction

ROBERT KAPLAN: Well, I can tell you among small businesses they are going through the calculation of how to manage their employees, whether or not to take the government assistance, whether they can realistically keep their employees on the payroll, whether they can survive. And that debate is going on across small businesses, I can tell you in this district, but my guess is nationwide. And then, for larger businesses, they’re trying to determine what’s the size of their business going to be coming out of this, and then, how much demand will be there be, what will be the nature of their customers, what’s the right sizing for their business?

So, everybody is having those discussions. And the issue that comes out of that is, as I mentioned, we’ll get to low to mid-teens in unemployment and hopefully in the year below 10% or in the neighborhood of 8%. The issue is how fast can we work it down when many companies that employ people won’t be employing people. I was just looking at the statistics yesterday and something like, let’s put it this way, a significant percentage of jobs and new jobs come from small businesses. I think that’s going to be a real challenge.

And then for bigger businesses, they just have to determine how big their business is going to be and how many people they’re going to employ. And so, I think the managing down the unemployment rate is going to be a big challenge, and the consumer not being as strong as he or she was going into this crisis, that’s high on the list, top of the list of challenges coming out of this crisis.

STEVE LIESMAN: President Kaplan, thank you for joining us. We look forward to continuing the discussion both as we hit the peak of this crisis, and then on the other side on the way back up. Thanks again.

ROBERT KAPLAN: Good to talk to you.

The post Dalls Fed President Robert Kaplan: Expect a severe economic contraction in the Q2 appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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