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CWB reports fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial and strategic performance

CWB reports fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial and strategic performance
Canada NewsWire
EDMONTON, AB, Dec. 2, 2022

EDMONTON, AB, Dec. 2, 2022 /CNW/ – CWB Financial Group (TSX: CWB) (CWB) today announced financial performance for the year …

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CWB reports fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial and strategic performance

Canada NewsWire

EDMONTON, AB, Dec. 2, 2022 /CNW/ - CWB Financial Group (TSX: CWB) (CWB) today announced financial performance for the year ended October 31, 2022. Annual diluted earnings per share of $3.39 and adjusted earnings per common share(1) of $3.62, were down 9% and 5%, respectively, reflecting an increase in the performing loan provision for credit losses due to a deterioration in macro-economic forecasts. Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $0.72 was down 18% sequentially and reflected the impact of the accelerated amortization of certain previously capitalized Advanced Internal Ratings Based (AIRB) assets recognized concurrently with material completion of the development of revised AIRB tools as we prepare for implementation into our business processes and data. Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per common share of $0.88 was down 2%, sequentially. Our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.32 per common share, which is up one cent, or 3%, from the dividend declared last quarter and two cents, or 7%, from one year ago.

"Our performance this year reflected solid growth and continued investment in strategically targeted full-service growth initiatives in a volatile economic environment," said Chris Fowler President and CEO. "Our teams delivered 14% annual loan growth in strategically targeted general commercial loans, 11% annual loan growth in Ontario and an 8% annual increase in branch-raised deposits. Our disciplined approach to driving growth within our prudent risk appetite has delivered very strong credit performance and we are in a position of strength to face the potential economic volatility on the horizon."

 

"Our strategic execution has delivered enhancements to our digital capabilities, increased our physical presence in key markets, and further improved our client offering to provide a foundation to accelerate full-service client growth. We are focused to deliver strong core operating performance next year and achieve the financial performance targets we have set for 2024." 

 

"At our upcoming investor day on December 7, 2022 in Toronto, we look forward to discussing how our strategic execution has positioned our talented teams to drive an unrivaled experience for more full-service clients and increase value for our investors as the best bank for business owners in Canada."

(1)  Non-GAAP measure – refer to definitions and detail provided on pages 6 and 7.

 

Financial Performance

Q4 2022,
compared to
Q4 2021(1)

Common shareholders' net income

$68 million

Down 25%

Diluted EPS

Adjusted EPS

$0.72

$0.88

Down 29%

Down 15%

Adjusted ROE

10.5 %

Down 200 bp

Efficiency ratio

52.6 %

Down 30 bp

Pre-tax, pre-provision income

$133 million

Up 8%

 

Compared to the same quarter last year, common shareholders' net income decreased as 7% revenue growth was more than offset by higher non-interest expenses and an increase in the provision for credit losses on performing loans. Pre-tax, pre-provision income increased 8%. Net interest income increased 4%, as the benefit of 9% loan growth was offset by a 14 basis point decrease in net interest margin(1). Annual loan growth of 9%, including 14% growth in the general commercial portfolio, reflects our strategic focus on full-service client opportunities. The decline in net interest margin reflects that growth in asset yields has lagged the growth in deposit costs over the last year driven by the higher market interest rate environment, and the impact of a proportional shift in our funding mix towards higher-cost fixed term deposits. Net interest margin was also negatively impacted by higher average liquidity and a change in our lending mix to comparatively lower-yielding borrowers and portfolios. Non-interest income growth of 29% primarily reflects higher foreign exchange revenue recorded within 'other' non-interest income. Non-interest expenses were up 18%, which included the $17 million impact of the accelerated amortization of intangible assets as a result of a reduction in estimated useful lives of certain previously capitalized AIRB assets, concurrent with the completion of a material portion of our revised AIRB tools. Adjusted non-interest expenses(1) increased 7%, and we delivered positive operating leverage(1) this quarter. The provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans(1) of 14 basis points was 26 basis points higher than last year due to a 22 basis point increase in the performing loan provision and a four basis point increase in the impaired loan provision. The increase in the performing loan provision was driven by the impact of a deterioration in the forward-looking macroeconomic outlook in the rising interest rate environment. We incurred a nil provision for credit losses on impaired loans, compared to a four basis point recovery last year. Gross impaired loan balances represented 0.46% of gross loans, down from 0.61% one year ago and reflect historically low levels.

Q4 2022,
compared to
Q3 2022(1)

Common shareholders' net income

$68 million

Down 16%

Diluted EPS

Adjusted EPS

$0.72

$0.88

Down 18%

Down 2%

Adjusted ROE

10.5 %

Down 20 bp

Efficiency ratio

52.6 %

Up 130 bp

Pre-tax, pre-provision income

$133 million

No change



(1)    

Adjusted EPS, adjusted ROE, efficiency ratio, pre-tax, pre-provision income, adjusted common shareholders' net income, operating leverage,
adjusted non-interest expenses, net interest margin and the provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans are
non-GAAP measures. Refer to definitions and detail provided on pages 6 and 7.


bp – basis point

 

Common shareholders' net income decreased compared to last quarter as higher revenues and a lower provision for credit losses were more than offset by an increase in non-interest expenses, primarily due to the accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets, as discussed in the comparison to the same quarter last year. Adjusted common shareholders' net income decreased 1% and pre-tax, pre-provision income remained unchanged. Net interest income was consistent with last quarter, as the benefit of 2% sequential loan growth was offset by a ten basis point decline in net interest margin. The decline in net interest margin reflects that growth in asset yields has lagged the growth in deposit costs driven by the higher market interest rate environment. Net interest margin was also negatively impacted by higher average liquidity and a change in our lending mix to comparatively lower-yielding borrowers and portfolios. Non-interest income growth of 27% primarily reflects higher foreign exchange revenue recorded within 'other' non-interest income. Adjusted non-interest expenses(1) of $147 million increased 6% and reflected continued investments in our strategic priorities, including our new AIRB tools and the harmonization of our wealth management brands with the launch of CWB Wealth, customary seasonal increases in advertising, community investment and employee training costs and higher people costs. The provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans declined two basis points, primarily driven by a lower impaired loan provision, partially offset by a higher performing loan provision due to a further deterioration in the forward-looking macroeconomic outlook. Lower impaired loan provisions reflected the reversal of provisions related to previously impaired loans that were resolved with lower than expected realized losses, combined with a decline in new impaired loan formations.

 

Fiscal 2022
compared to
fiscal 2021(1)

Common shareholders' net income

$310 million

Down 5%

Diluted EPS

Adjusted EPS

$3.39

$3.62

Down 9%

Down 5%

Adjusted ROE

10.8 %

Down 100 bp

Efficiency ratio

51.5 %

Up 240 bp

Pre-tax, pre-provision income

$522 million

Up 1%



(1)

Adjusted EPS, adjusted ROE, efficiency ratio, pre-tax, pre-provision income, adjusted common shareholders' net income, adjusted non-interest expenses, net interest margin and the provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans are non-GAAP measures. Refer to definitions and detail provided on pages 6 and 7.


bp – basis point

 

Compared to last year, the decrease in common shareholders' net income was primarily driven by a higher provision for credit losses on performing loans. Revenue growth included a 10% increase in non-interest income and a 5% increase in net interest income attributable to 9% annual loan growth, partially offset by an eight basis point decrease in net interest margin, primarily reflecting that growth in asset yields has lagged the growth in deposit costs over the last year. The increase in non-interest income primarily reflects higher foreign exchange revenue recorded within 'other' non-interest income. Non-interest expenses were up 14%, or approximately 11% on an adjusted basis, and reflected our continued strategic execution, including investment in our people, AIRB tools and processes, digital capabilities, the harmonization of our wealth management brands with the launch of CWB Wealth, our new banking centres in Markham, Ontario and downtown Vancouver and expanded client offerings to optimize our business, deliver an unrivaled experience to our clients, and accelerate full-service client growth. Our total annual provision for credit losses of 14 basis points as a percentage of average loans increased five basis points and compared to a nine basis point charge last year, primarily due to an increase in the performing loan provision for credit losses driven by a deterioration in macroeconomic forecasts. The provision for credit losses on impaired loans of ten basis points was seven basis points lower than last year and remained well below our five-year average of 19 basis points. 

Strategic Performance

We continued to transform our capabilities to offer a superior full-service client experience through a complete range of in-person and digital channels. These improving capabilities, delivered by our highly engaged and client-centric teams, have accelerated growth of full-service client relationships in specifically targeted segments that fit within our strategic growth objectives and prudent risk appetite. Our strategic execution will enable us to continue to deliver strong growth of full-service clients and capitalize on the opportunities available to us as we continue to expand our presence in key markets. This quarter, we:

  • Successfully harmonized our wealth management brands with the launch of CWB Wealth. The launch further integrates our acquired wealth management operations under one brand and strategically positions us to expand full-service client offerings and opportunities, and provide a unique client experience in Canadian private wealth advisory services.
  • Materially completed the development of revised AIRB tools, incorporating targeted enhancements and the final 2023 Capital Adequacy Requirements (CAR) guidelines. Next year, we will commence the integration of our revised AIRB tools into our business processes and data. Once our AIRB tools have been successfully implemented across the business, we will operate them for a sufficient period of time to support a successful resubmission of our application.

Fiscal 2023 Outlook

Leveraging our enhanced capabilities and increased physical presence, we expect our team to continue to deliver strong full-service client growth in strategically targeted segments and within our risk appetite. We are selectively targeting high single-digit annual percentage loan growth, with stronger growth in our strategically targeted general commercial portfolio, where prudent. We also expect to deliver double-digit annual percentage growth of branch-raised deposits.

Based on the assumption of a more stable interest rate environment, our net interest margin is expected to increase over the next year to reflect the combined benefit of more normalized lending spreads and the benefit of fixed term loans re-pricing at higher market interest rates, which due to their longer duration lagged the re-pricing of fixed term deposits in the previous year.   

Our approach to expense management will focus on execution of our most important strategic priorities and continued tight management of discretionary expenses. On an annual basis, we will manage to an annual efficiency ratio below 50% with positive operating leverage.  

We expect that the combined impacts of the conclusion of COVID-19 government support programs, rapidly rising interest rates and a deteriorating economic outlook will drive an increase in the provision for credit losses next year. Our prudent approach and leveraging our enhanced credit risk management tools and processes supports our expectation that our provision for credit losses will remain within our strong historical range of 18 to 23 basis points next year, likely on the higher end of that range given potential economic volatility.

Based on the above assumptions, we expect to deliver annual double-digit pre-tax, pre-provision income growth, annual percentage growth of adjusted earnings per common share in the low- to mid- single-digit range and an annual adjusted ROE between 10 and 11%.

For further details on our expectations for fiscal 2023, refer to the Outlook section of our annual Management's Discussion and Analysis within the 2022 Annual Report.

Financial Scorecard

The following financial objectives reflect key performance metrics that we expect to drive over the next two years. The targets have been developed on the assumption of relatively stable economic conditions and under the Standardized approach for capital management.

Annual Metrics

Performance Target

Fiscal 2022 Performance

Pre-tax pre-provision income growth

Greater than 10%

1 %

Adjusted ROE

12% by 2024

10.8 %

Efficiency ratio

Less than 50%

51.5 %

 

About CWB Financial Group

CWB Financial Group (CWB) is the only full-service bank in Canada with a strategic focus to meet the unique financial needs of businesses and their owners. We provide our nation-wide clients with full-service business and personal banking, specialized financing, comprehensive wealth management offerings, and trust services. Clients choose CWB for a differentiated level of service through specialized expertise, customized solutions, and faster response times relative to the competition. Our people take the time to understand our clients and their business, and work as a united team to provide holistic solutions and advice.

As a public company on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), CWB trades under the symbols "CWB" (common shares), "CWB.PR.B" (Series 5 preferred shares) and "CWB.PR.D" (Series 9 preferred shares). We are firmly committed to the responsible creation of value for all our stakeholders and our approach to sustainability will support our continued success. Learn more at www.cwb.com.

Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Financial Results Conference Call


CWB's fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 results conference call is scheduled for Friday, December 2, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. ET (8:00 a.m. MT). CWB's executives will comment on financial results and respond to questions from analysts.

 

The conference call may be accessed on a listen-only basis by dialing (416) 764-8688 (Toronto) or 1 (888) 390-0546 (toll free) and entering passcode: 70750888. The call will also be webcast live on CWB's website:

www.cwb.com/investor-relations/quarterly-reports.

 

A replay of the conference call will be available until December 9, 2022, by dialing (416) 764-8677 (Toronto) or 1 (888) 390-0541 (toll-free) and entering passcode 750888#.

 

Selected Financial Highlights


For the three months ended


Change from

October 31
2021


For the year ended

Change from

October 31
2021


(unaudited)


October 31

2022



July 31

 2022



October 31
2021





October 31
2022



October 31
2021



(thousands, except per share amounts)














Results from Operations





















 Net interest income

$

240,202


$

240,593


$

229,925



4

%

$

939,976


$

892,363


5

%

 Non-interest income


39,636



31,119



30,699



29



136,311



123,670


10


 Total revenue


279,838



271,712



260,624



7



1,076,287



1,016,033


6


 Pre-tax, pre-provision income(1)


132,528



132,346



122,747



8



521,903



517,149


1


 Common shareholders' net income


67,687



80,809



89,998



(25)



310,302



327,471


(5)


Common Share Information

 Earnings per common share





















   Basic

$

0.72


$

0.88


$

1.01



(29)

%

$

3.39


$

3.74


(9)

%

   Diluted


0.72



0.88



1.01



(29)



3.39



3.73


(9)


   Adjusted(1)


0.88



0.90



1.03



(15)



3.62



3.81


(5)


 Cash dividends


0.31



0.31



0.29



7



1.22



1.16


5


 Book value(1)


33.48



33.90



33.10



1



33.48



33.10


1


 Closing market price


23.70



25.87



39.59



(40)



23.70



39.59


(40)


 Common shares outstanding (thousands)


94,326



92,988



89,390



6



94,326



89,390


6


 Performance Measures(1)





















 Return on common shareholders' equity


8.6

%


10.4

%


12.2

%


(360)

bp


10.1

%


11.6

%

(150)

bp

 Adjusted return on common shareholders'





















   equity


10.5



10.7



12.5



(200)



10.8



11.8


(100)


 Return on assets


0.66



0.81



0.97



(31)



0.79



0.92


(13)


 Net interest margin


2.33



2.43



2.47



(14)



2.41



2.49


(8)


 Efficiency ratio


52.6



51.3



52.9



(30)



51.5



49.1


240


 Operating leverage


0.5



(7.7)



(4.4)



490



(5.2)



(3.3)


(190)


Credit Quality(1)





















 Provision for credit losses on total loans as





















   a percentage of average loans(2)


0.14



0.16



(0.12)



26



0.14



0.09


5


 Provision for credit losses on impaired





















   loans as a percentage of average loans(2)


-



0.12



(0.04)



4



0.10



0.17


(7)


Balance Sheet





















 Assets

$

41,440,143


$

40,403,938


$

37,323,176



11

%









 Loans(3)


35,905,622



35,244,720



32,900,951



9










 Deposits


33,019,047



32,386,014



29,975,739



10










 Debt


3,461,899



3,430,921



3,015,065



15










 Shareholders' equity


3,732,976



3,727,567



3,533,885



6










Off-Balance Sheet





















 Wealth Management(4)





















   Assets under management and  
     administration


7,825,003



8,055,456



8,687,136



(10)










   Assets under advisement(5)


1,824,961



1,968,299



2,067,069



(12)










 Assets Under Administration - Other


13,943,199



14,090,563



14,031,042



(1)










Capital Adequacy(6)





















 Common equity Tier 1 ratio


8.8

%


8.9

%


8.8

%


-

bp









 Tier 1 ratio


10.6



10.7



10.8



(20)










 Total ratio


12.1



12.2



12.4



(30)










Other





















 Number of full-time equivalent staff


2,712



2,674



2,617



4

%











(1)     

Non-GAAP measure – refer to definitions and detail provided on pages 6 and 7.

(2)     

Includes provisions for credit losses on loans, committed but undrawn credit exposures and letters of credit.

(3)     

Excludes the allowance for credit losses.

(4)     

Certain comparative figures have been reclassified to conform with the current period's presentation.

(5)     

Primarily comprised of assets under advisement related to our Indigenous Services wealth management business.

(6)     

Calculated using the Standardized approach in accordance with guidelines issued by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada (OSFI).




bp – basis point

 

Financial Summary

This financial summary, dated December 1, 2022, should be read in conjunction with Canadian Western Bank's (CWB) unaudited condensed financial statements for the period ended October 31, 2022, included in this document, as well as the audited consolidated financial statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) for the year ended October 31, 2022, contained in our 2022 Annual Report, available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and CWB's website at www.cwb.com.

The condensed financial statements have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and are presented in Canadian dollars.

Forward-looking Statements

From time to time, we make written and verbal forward-looking statements. Statements of this type are included in our Annual Report and reports to shareholders and may be included in filings with Canadian securities regulators or in other communications such as media releases and corporate presentations. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our objectives and strategies, targeted and expected financial results and the outlook for CWB's businesses or for the Canadian economy. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intend", "estimate", "may increase", "may impact", "goal", "focus", "potential", "proposed" and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as "will", "should", "would" and "could".

By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, which give rise to the possibility that our predictions, forecasts, projections, expectations and conclusions will not prove to be accurate, that our assumptions may not be correct, and that our strategic goals will not be achieved.

A variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control, may cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, general business and economic conditions in Canada, including housing market conditions, the volatility and level of liquidity in financial markets, fluctuations in interest rates and currency values, the volatility and level of various commodity prices, changes in monetary policy, changes in economic and political conditions, material changes to trade agreements, transition to the AIRB approach for regulatory capital purposes, legislative and regulatory developments, legal developments, the level of competition, the occurrence of natural catastrophes, outbreaks of disease or illness that affect local, national or international economies, changes in accounting standards and policies, information technology and cyber risk, the accuracy and completeness of information we receive about customers and counterparties, the ability to attract and retain key personnel, the ability to complete and integrate acquisitions, reliance on third parties to provide components of business infrastructure, changes in tax laws, technological developments, unexpected changes in consumer spending and saving habits, timely development and introduction of new products, and our ability to anticipate and manage the risks associated with these factors. It is important to note that the preceding list is not exhaustive of possible factors.

Additional information about these factors can be found in the Risk Management section of our MD&A. These and other factors should be considered carefully, and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as a number of important factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements contained in this document represent our views as of the date hereof. Unless required by securities law, we do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time by us or on our behalf. The forward-looking statements contained in this document are presented for the purpose of assisting readers in understanding our financial position and results of operations as at and for the periods ended on the dates presented, as well as our strategic priorities and objectives, and may not be appropriate for other purposes.

Assumptions about the performance of the Canadian economy over the forecast horizon and how it will affect our business are material factors considered when setting organizational objectives and targets. In determining expectations for economic growth, we consider our own forecasts, economic data and forecasts provided by the Canadian government and its agencies, as well as certain private sector forecasts. These forecasts are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that may be general or specific. Where relevant, material economic assumptions underlying forward-looking statements are disclosed within the Fiscal 2023 Outlook and Allowance for Credit Losses sections of our MD&A.

Non-GAAP Measures

We use a number of financial measures and ratios to assess our performance against strategic initiatives and operational benchmarks. Some of these financial measures and ratios do not have standardized meanings prescribed by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other financial institutions. Non-GAAP financial measures and ratios provide readers with an enhanced understanding of how we view our financial performance. These measures and ratios may also provide the ability to analyze trends related to profitability and the effectiveness of our operations and strategies, and are disclosed in compliance with National Instrument 52-112 Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Disclosure.

To calculate non-GAAP financial measures, we exclude certain items from our financial results prepared in accordance with IFRS. Adjustments relate to items which we believe are not indicative of underlying operating performance. Our non-GAAP financial measures include:

  • Adjusted non-interest expenses – total non-interest expenses, excluding pre-tax accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets, amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets, and acquisition and integration costs. Accelerated amortization of AIRB assets is a result of a reduction in estimated useful lives of certain previously capitalized AIRB assets. Acquisition and integration costs include direct and incremental costs incurred as part of the execution and integration of the acquisition of the businesses of T.E. Wealth and Leon Frazer & Associates that occurred in June 2020.
  • Adjusted common shareholders' net income – total common shareholders' net income, excluding the accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets, amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets, and acquisition and integration costs, net of tax.
  • Pre-tax, pre-provision income – total revenue less adjusted non-interest expenses.

The following table provides a reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures to our reported financial results.


For the three months ended

Change from
October 31 

  2021


For the year ended

Change from
October 31

  2021


(unaudited)

(thousands)


October 31
2022



July 31
  2022



October 31
2021




October 31
2022



October 31
2021


Non-interest expenses

$

166,783


$

142,130


$

140,802


18

%

$

581,777


$

508,718

14

%

Adjustments (before tax):



















  Accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets


(16,555)



-



-


100



(16,555)



-

100


  Amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets


(2,557)



(2,557)



(2,032)


26



(10,212)



(8,073)

26


  Acquisition and integration costs


(361)



(207)



(893)


(60)



(626)



(1,761)

(64)


Adjusted non-interest expenses

$

147,310


$

139,366


$

137,877


7

%

$

554,384


$

498,884

11

%

Common shareholders' net income



















Adjustments (after-tax):

$

67,687


$

80,809


$

89,998


(25)

%

$

310,302


$

327,471

(5)

%

  Accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets(1)


12,549



-



-


100



12,549



-

100


  Amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets(2)


1,913



1,914



1,485


29



7,641



5,901

29


  Acquisition and integration costs(3)


270



156



674


(60)



470



1,329

(65)


Adjusted common shareholders' net income

$

82,419


$

82,879


$

92,157


(11)

%

$

330,962


$

334,701

(1)

%

Total revenue

$

279,838


$

271,712


$

260,624


7

%

$

1,076,287


$

1,016,033

6

%

Less:



















  Adjusted non-interest expenses (see above)


147,310



139,366



137,877


7



554,384



498,884

11


Pre-tax, pre-provision income

$

132,528


$

132,346


$

122,747


8

%

$

521,903


$

517,149

1

%



(1)     

Net of income tax of $4,006 for the three months ended October 31, 2022 (Q3 2022 – nil, Q4 2021 – nil) and $4,006 for the year ended October 31, 2022 (2021 – nil).

(2)     

Net of income tax of $644 for the three months ended October 31, 2022 (Q3 2022 – $643, Q4 2021 – $547) and $2,571 for the year ended October 31, 2022 (2021 – $2,172).

(3)   

Net of income tax of $91 for the three months ended October 31, 2022 (Q3 2022 – $51, Q4 2021 – $219) and $156 for the year ended October 31, 2022 (2021 – $432).

 

Non-GAAP ratios are calculated using the non-GAAP financial measures defined above. Our non-GAAP ratios include:

  • Adjusted earnings per common share – diluted earnings per common share calculated with adjusted common shareholders' net income.
  • Adjusted return on common shareholders' equity – annualized adjusted common shareholders' net income divided by average common shareholders' equity, which is total shareholders' equity excluding preferred shares and limited recourse capital notes.
  • Efficiency ratio – adjusted non-interest expenses divided by total revenue.
  • Operating leverage – growth rate of total revenue less growth rate of adjusted non-interest expenses.

Supplementary financial measures are measures that do not have definitions prescribed by GAAP, but do not meet the definition of a non-GAAP financial measure or ratio. Our supplementary financial measures include:

  • Return on assets – annualized common shareholders' net income divided by average total assets.
  • Net interest margin – annualized net interest income divided by average total assets.
  • Return on common shareholders' equity – annualized common shareholders' net income divided by average common shareholders' equity.
  • Write-offs as a percentage of average loans – annualized write-offs divided by average total loans.
  • Book value per common share – total common shareholders' equity divided by total common shares outstanding.
  • Branch-raised deposits – total deposits excluding broker term and capital market deposits.
  • Provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans – annualized provision for credit losses on loans, committed but undrawn credit exposures and letters of credit divided by average total loans. Provisions for credit losses related to debt securities measured at fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI) and other financial assets are excluded.
  • Provision for credit losses on impaired loans as a percentage of average loans – annualized provision for credit losses on impaired loans divided by average total loans.
  • Provision for credit losses on performing loans as a percentage of average loans – annualized provision for credit losses on performing loans (Stage 1 and 2) divided by average total loans.
  • Average balances – average daily balances.

Financial Performance

Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021

Common shareholders' net income of $68 million and diluted earnings per common share of $0.72 decreased 25% and 29%, respectively. Adjusted common shareholders' net income of $82 million and adjusted earnings per common share of $0.88 decreased 11% and 15%, respectively. The decline in adjusted common shareholders' net income was primarily driven by an increase in the provision for credit losses on performing loans compared to the recovery we recognized in the prior year. Pre-tax, pre-provision income of $133 million was up 8%.

Total revenue of $280 million grew 7%, which reflected a 4% increase in net interest income and 29% increase in non-interest income. Net interest income of $240 million increased due to the benefit of 9% annual loan growth, partially offset by a 14 basis point decrease in net interest margin. The decline in net interest margin reflects that growth in asset yields has lagged the growth in deposit costs over the last year driven by the higher market interest rate environment, and the impact of a proportional shift in our funding mix towards higher-cost fixed term deposits. Our fixed term deposit portfolio has repriced faster to reflect higher market interest rates than our fixed term loans, which have a longer average duration. Loan yields have also been slower to reflect the changes in market interest rates due to high competition for new lending. Net interest margin was also negatively impacted by higher average liquidity and a change in our lending mix to comparatively lower-yielding borrowers and portfolios. Non-interest income growth reflects higher foreign exchange revenue recorded within 'other' non-interest income and higher credit-related fees, partially offset by lower wealth management fees due to market value declines that reduced average assets under management.  

The provision for credit losses on total loans of 14 basis points was 26 basis points higher than last year, primarily due to a 22 basis point increase in the performing loan provision, which was an eight basis point recovery in the prior year and reflected an improving macroeconomic outlook associated with the ongoing economic recovery at that point in time. The current year performing loan provision of 14 basis points reflected the impact of a deterioration in the forward-looking macroeconomic outlook. We recognized a nil provision for credit losses on impaired loans, compared to a four basis point recovery last year, and gross impaired loan balances represented 0.46% of gross loans, down from 0.61% one year ago and reflect historically low levels.

Non-interest expenses of $167 million were up 18%, which included a $17 million impact from the accelerated amortization due to a reduction in estimated useful lives of certain previously capitalized AIRB assets, concurrent with the completion of a material portion of our revised AIRB tools. Adjusted non-interest expenses increased 7%, and we delivered positive operating leverage this quarter. We continued to make targeted investments in strategic priorities, including our AIRB tools and processes, digital capabilities, client offerings and our new banking centres in Markham, Ontario and downtown Vancouver as we optimize our business, deliver an unrivaled experience to our clients, and accelerate full-service client growth.

Q4 2022 vs. Q3 2022

Common shareholders' net income and diluted earnings per common share decreased 16% and 18%, respectively, as higher revenues and a lower provision for credit losses was more than offset by an increase in non-interest expenses, including the impact of accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets. Adjusted common shareholders' net income and adjusted earnings per common share decreased 1% and 2%, respectively. Pre-tax, pre-provision income remained unchanged compared to prior quarter.

Total revenue increased 3%, primarily due to a 27% increase in non-interest income driven by higher foreign exchange revenue recorded within 'other' non-interest income and higher credit related fees, partially offset by lower wealth management fees. Net interest income was consistent with last quarter as the benefit of 2% sequential loan growth was offset by a ten basis point decline in net interest margin. The decline in net interest margin reflects that growth in asset yields has lagged the growth in deposit costs driven by the higher market interest rate environment. Our fixed term deposit portfolio has repriced faster to reflect higher market interest rates than our fixed term loans, which have a longer average duration. Loan yields have also been slower to reflect the changes in market interest rates due to high competition for new lending. Net interest margin was also negatively impacted by higher average liquidity compared to the previous quarter and a change in our lending mix to comparatively lower-yielding borrowers and portfolios.

Our provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans was two basis points below last quarter due to lower impaired loan provisions, partially offset by a higher performing loan provision due to a further deterioration in the forward-looking macroeconomic outlook. Lower impaired loan provisions reflected the reversal of provisions related to previously impaired loans that were resolved with lower than expected realized losses, combined with a decline in new impaired loan formations. Gross impaired loan balances represented 0.46% of gross loans, down from 0.53% last quarter.

Non-interest expenses increased 17%, including additional costs related to the accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets, as discussed in the comparison to the same quarter last year. Adjusted non-interest expenses increased 6%, primarily due to continued investments in our strategic priorities, including our AIRB tools and processes and the harmonization of our wealth management brands with the launch of CWB Wealth. We also incurred a full quarter impact of the compensation adjustments provided to our entry and mid-level team members in the prior quarter along with customary seasonal increases in advertising, community investment and employee training costs.

2022 vs. 2021

Common shareholders' net income of $310 million and diluted earnings per common share of $3.39 were down 5% and 9%, respectively. Adjusted common shareholders' net income of $331 million was down 1% and adjusted earnings per common share of $3.62 was down 5%, primarily driven by a higher provision for credit losses on performing loans.

Total annual revenue of $1.1 billion increased 6%, which reflected a 5% increase in net interest income and a 10% increase in non-interest income. Net interest income of $940 million increased due to the benefit of 9% annual loan growth, partially offset by an eight basis point decrease in net interest margin. The decline in net interest margin reflects that growth in asset yields has lagged the growth in deposit costs over the last year driven by the higher market interest rate environment. Our fixed term deposit portfolio has repriced faster to reflect higher market interest rates than our fixed term loans, which have a longer average duration. Loan yields have also been slower to reflect the changes in market interest rates due to high competition for new lending, particularly for lower risk borrowers. Net interest margin was also negatively impacted by a change in our lending mix to comparatively lower-yielding borrowers and portfolios. Non-interest income growth reflects an increase in foreign exchange revenue recorded within 'other' non-interest income, higher credit related fees and higher wealth management fees due to an increase in average assets under management, partially offset by lower net gains on securities sales.  

Our total annual provision for credit losses represented 14 basis points as a percentage of average loans, compared to nine basis points last year. We recognized a four basis point provision related to performing loans driven by a deterioration in macroeconomic forecasts compared to an eight basis point recovery in the prior year. The provision for credit losses on impaired loans of ten basis points was seven basis point lower than last year and remained well below our five-year average of 19 basis points. 

Total non-interest expenses of $582 million were up 14%, including accelerated amortization of previously capitalized AIRB assets. Adjusted non-interest expenses increased 11%, which was driven by our continued strategic execution, including investment in our people, AIRB tools and processes, digital capabilities, the harmonization of our wealth management brands with the launch of CWB Wealth, our new banking centres in Markham, Ontario and downtown Vancouver and expanded client offerings to optimize our business, deliver an unrivaled experience to our clients, and accelerate full-service client growth.

ROE and ROA

The fourth quarter return on common shareholders' equity (ROE) of 8.6% was down 360 basis point compared to last year and 180 basis points compared to last quarter. Adjusted ROE of 10.5% was down 200 basis points from last year, which reflected a decrease in our adjusted common shareholders' net income primarily driven by an increase in the provision for credit losses on performing loans, and higher average common shareholders' equity. Sequentially, adjusted ROE was down 20 basis points reflecting higher common shareholders' equity.

Full year ROE of 10.1% and adjusted ROE of 10.8% decreased 150 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively, which reflected lower common shareholders' net income, primarily due to higher provision for credit losses on performing loans, and higher common shareholders' equity.

The fourth quarter return on assets (ROA) of 0.66% was 31 basis points below the same quarter last year and 15 basis points lower on a sequential basis, reflecting lower common shareholders' net income and higher average assets. The full year ROA of 0.79% decreased 13 basis points primarily due to the same factors.

Efficiency Ratio

The fourth quarter efficiency ratio was 52.6% compared to 52.9% last year and 51.3% last quarter. On an annual basis, our efficiency ratio increased to 51.5% compared to 49.1% as expense growth outpaced revenue growth as we have made several strategic investments this year, which will benefit revenue growth in future periods.

Loans

Total loans, excluding the allowance for credit losses, of $35.9 billion increased 9% ($3.0 billion) from last year and 2% ($0.7 billion) from the prior quarter.

(unaudited)

($ millions)


October 31
2022


% of total as
at October 31

2022



July 31
     2022



October 31
2021

Change from

October 31
2021















General commercial loans

$

12,430


35

%

$

12,017


$

10,895

14

%

Commercial mortgages


7,446


21



7,418



7,039

6


Personal loans and mortgages


6,952


19



6,861



6,396

9


Equipment financing and leasing


5,546


15



5,430



5,286

5


Real estate project loans


3,200


9



3,210



2,871

11


Oil and gas production loans


332


1



309



414

(20)


Total loans outstanding(1)

$

35,906


100

%

$

35,245


$

32,901

9

%



(1)    

Total loans outstanding by lending sector exclude the allowance for credit losses.

 

Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021

Very strong growth of 14% in the strategically targeted general commercial portfolio reflected our focus to increase full-service client relationships across our national footprint. Real estate project loan growth of 11% and growth in commercial mortgages of 6% primarily reflected strong new lending volumes in Ontario and British Columbia (BC), with high-quality borrowers and exposures consistent with our prudent risk appetite. The 9% increase in personal loans and was driven by growth in uninsured mortgages, which benefited from strong new origination volumes with prudent loan-to-value ratios and strong average beacon scores. Equipment financing loans increased 5%, primarily in Alberta and were negatively impacted by ongoing supply chain pressures and elevated payouts in the current year. Oil and gas production loans, which primarily reflect participation in syndicated facilities that remain within our prudent risk appetite, were down $82 million, primarily due to payouts and paydowns from existing customers earlier this year. 

Q4 2022 vs. Q3 2022

We delivered solid growth in the fourth quarter strategically targeted on general commercial clients, which offer the highest potential of developing full-service client relationships. General commercial loans represented nearly two thirds of net loan growth in the quarter. Equipment financing loan growth strengthened to finish the year, with 2% growth in the fourth quarter, primarily in Alberta and Ontario. Oil and gas production loans increased by $23 million, primarily due to participation in syndicated facilities that remain within our risk appetite.

Geographic diversification

(unaudited)

($ millions)


October 31
2022

% of total as
at October 31

2022



July 31
     2022



October 31
2021

Change from

October 31

2021














British Columbia

$

11,692

33

%

$

11,706


$

10,794

8

%

Alberta


11,216

31



10,783



10,317

9


Ontario


8,600

24



8,443



7,727

11


Saskatchewan


1,559

4



1,558



1,521

2


Quebec


1,198

3



1,152



993

21


Manitoba


976

3



950



908

7


Other


665

2



653



641

4


Total loans outstanding(1)

$

35,906

100

%

$

35,245


$

32,901

9

%



(1)         

Total loans outstanding by province exclude the allowance for credit losses.

 

Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021

Growth of 8% in British Columbia primarily reflected strong growth in the general commercial, commercial mortgage and real estate project loan portfolios. Growth in Alberta of 9% was primarily driven by strong lending volumes in the general commercial and equipment financing portfolios. Ontario loans increased 11%, supported by the Mississauga and Markham banking centres, primarily driven by personal loans and mortgages, commercial mortgages and general commercial loans. Quebec loans were up 21% due to increased general commercial and equipment financing loans.

Q4 2022 vs. Q3 2022

On a sequential basis, loans in Alberta grew 4%, primarily due to strong growth in the general commercial, commercial mortgage and equipment financing loan portfolios, partially offset by a decline in real estate project loans from successful project completions. Ontario growth of 2% was primarily driven by the personal loan and mortgage and real estate project loan portfolios, partially offset by elevated payouts in the quarter.

Credit Quality

Credit quality continues to be supported by the secured nature of our lending portfolio, our targeted borrower selection, disciplined underwriting practices and proactive loan management. Borrower credit performance has historically remained strong throughout periods of economic volatility, and both gross impaired loans and provisions for credit losses on impaired loans declined this quarter and remain well below pre-COVID-19 levels.  

Gross impaired loans

The level of gross impaired loans fluctuates as loans become impaired and are subsequently resolved, and does not directly reflect the dollar value of expected write-offs given tangible security held in support of lending exposures. The dollar amount of gross impaired loans totaled $167 million, compared to $202 million one year ago and $187 million last quarter.


For the three months ended

Change from

 October 31
  2021


(unaudited)


October 31
  2022



July 31
  2022



October 31
2021


($ thousands)













 Gross impaired loans, beginning of period

$

186,674


$

187,416


$

275,928


(32)

%

 New formations


21,097



41,063



22,134


(5)


 Reductions, impaired accounts paid down or returned to performing status


(30,510)



(38,418)



(68,021)


(55)


 Write-offs


(10,588)



(3,387)



(27,717)


(62)


Total(1)

$

166,673


$

186,674


$

202,324


(18)

%













Balance of the ten largest impaired accounts

$

82,314


$

91,414


$

77,227


7

%

Total number of accounts classified as impaired(2)


280



287



330


(15)


Gross impaired loans as a percentage of gross loans


0.46

%


0.53

%


0.61

%

(15)

 bp 



(1) 

Gross impaired loans include foreclosed assets held for sale with a carrying value of $2,010 (July 31, 2022 – $2,423, October 31, 2021 – $2,253). We pursue timely realization of foreclosed assets and do not use the assets for our own operations.

(2) 

Total number of accounts excludes CWB National Leasing.


bp – basis point

 

Gross impaired loan balances represented 0.46% of gross loans, down from 0.61% last year and 0.53% last quarter. New impaired loan formations of $21 million were lower than $22 million last year and $41 million last quarter. Resolutions of impaired loans decreased to $31 million, compared to $68 million last year and $38 million last quarter.

Allowance for credit losses

At October 31, 2022, the total allowance for credit losses (Stages 1, 2 and 3) was $167 million, compared to $146 million one year ago and $164 million last quarter.



Change from

  October 31
2021


(unaudited)


October 31
2022



July 31
2022



October 31
2021


($ thousands)













Performing (Stage 1 and 2)












   Loans

$

115,127


$

104,135


$

102,132


13

%

   Committed by undrawn credit exposures and letters of credit


5,310



4,350



4,421


20




120,437



108,485



106,553


13


Loans - Impaired (Stage 3)


46,691



55,988



39,297


19


Total

$

167,128


$

164,473


$

145,850


15

%

 

Performing loan allowance

The performing loan allowance is estimated based on 12-month expected credit losses (ECL) for loans in Stage 1, while loans in Stage 2 require the recognition of lifetime ECL. The proportion of performing loans in Stage 2 at the end of the fourth quarter was 20%, compared to 9% last year and 10% last quarter. The increase in Stage 2 loans compared to last year and last quarter primarily reflects a deterioration in the forward-looking macroeconomic forecast, due to an anticipated decline in housing prices, significantly higher mortgage interest rates and higher expected unemployment rates, rather than a deterioration of borrower-specific credit quality.   

The performing loan allowance of $120 million increased 13% ($14 million) from the prior year and 11% ($12 million) from the prior quarter. The increase from last year and last quarter reflects a deterioration in the forward-looking macroeconomic forecast as discussed above.

In estimating the performing loan allowance, we continue to supplement our modeled ECL to reflect expert credit judgments. These expert credit judgments account for the variability in the results provided by the models and consider the lagging impacts of typical credit cycles, where loan defaults occur in periods subsequent to the onset of a decline in macroeconomic conditions.

Impaired loan allowance

The allowance for impaired loans (Stage 3) was $47 million, compared to $39 million last year and $56 million last quarter. To determine allowances for impaired loans, we establish estimates through detailed analysis of both the overall quality and ultimate marketability of the security held against each impaired account on a case-by-case basis. 

Provision for credit losses

The fourth quarter provision for credit losses on total loans as a percentage of average loans represented a charge of 14 basis points, compared to a 12 basis point recovery last year and a 16 basis point charge last quarter. On an annual basis, the provision for credit losses on total loans represented 14 basis points of average loans, up from 9 basis points last year but well below our normal historical range of 18 to 23 basis points.


For the three months ended


Change from
October 31

  2021


For the year ended

Change from
October 31

  2021



(unaudited)

(as a % of average loans)

October 31
2022


July 31

2022



October 31
2021




October 31
2022



October 31
2021

























Provision for credit losses
     on impaired loans


-

%


0.12

%


(0.04)

%


4

bp

0.10

%


0.17

%

(7)

bp

Provision for credit losses
     on performing loans


0.14



0.04



(0.08)



22


0.04



(0.08)


12


Total


0.14



0.16



(0.12)



26

bp

0.14



0.09


5

bp






















Write-offs


0.12



0.04



0.34



(22)


0.09



0.19


(10)



























bp – basis point

 

The fourth quarter provision for credit losses on performing loans was a charge of $12 million, compared to a recovery of $7 million last year, and a $3 million charge last quarter. On a full year basis, the provision for credit losses on performing loans was $14 million compared to a recovery of $24 million last year. Compared to last quarter, the performing loan provision for credit losses reflects deteriorating forward-looking macroeconomic assumptions, primarily due to the estimated economic impact of lower GDP growth, an anticipated decline in house prices and higher unemployment rates, which resulted in a larger proportion of performing loans in Stage 2. Compared to last year, the recoveries recognized in fiscal 2021 reflected improvements in the near-term economic forecast at that time, very low loan default rates and a migration of performing loans from Stage 2 back to Stage 1. For further details on the estimation of the performing loan allowance, see the Performing loan allowance section.

A nominal provision for credit losses on impaired loans was recorded compared to a recovery of $3 million last year and a charge of $10 million last quarter. The fourth quarter provision for credit losses on impaired loans reflected the reversal of provisions related to previously impaired loans that were resolved with lower than expected realized losses, combined with lower new impaired loan formations during the quarter. The annual provision for credit losses on impaired loans was $32 million compared to $51 million last year.

Quarterly write-offs fluctuate as loans become impaired and are subsequently resolved. Write-offs increased compared to last quarter reflecting the increase in resolutions of impaired loans, which resulted in the realization of previously recognized provisions for credit losses. Our approach to managing credit risk has proven to be very effective and on an annual basis, we recognized write-offs of nine basis points as a percentage of average loans, below our five-year average of 19 basis points.

Deposits and Funding

Total deposits of $33.0 billion were up 10% ($3.0 billion) from last year and 2% ($0.6 billion) compared to last quarter. Branch-raised deposits increased 8% ($1.6 billion) from last year and 2% ($0.5 billion) compared to last quarter.



As at

Change from

October 31

 2021


(unaudited)



October 31
2022



July 31
2022



October 31
2021


(millions)















CWB Financial Group branch-raised













     Demand and notice


$

14,462


$

14,693


$

14,465


-

%

     Term



6,416



5,728



4,794


34





20,878



20,421



19,259


8















 Broker term



7,639



7,863



6,386


20


 Capital markets



4,502



4,102



4,331


4


Total deposits


$

33,019


$

32,386


$

29,976


10

%

 

Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021

We have consistently delivered strong growth of relationship-based, branch-raised deposits over the past several years. Branch-raised deposits of $20.9 billon increased 8% from last year, with very strong 34% growth in our fixed term deposits. 

Demand and notice deposits remained relatively consistent year-over-year. We delivered strong new demand and notice deposit growth as we continued to leverage our enhanced cash management tools and products to broaden our access to full-service client opportunities by attracting new clients both within and outside of our banking centre footprint. The net new demand and notice deposit growth was offset by a decline in other client deposit balances and a shift in existing client deposits to branch-raised term deposits, which reflects a shift in client preference in the rising rate environment.

Capital market deposits increased 4% from last year and represent 14% of total deposits, compared to 15% last year.

Broker-sourced term deposits increased 20% from last year and represent 23% of total deposits, up from 21% last year. While our preference is to raise relationship-based branch-raised deposits, the broker deposit market continues to be a deep and efficient source to raise insured retail deposits and has proven to be a reliable and effective way to access funding and liquidity over a wide geographic base. We raise only fixed term broker deposits with terms to maturity between one and five years.

Q4 2022 vs. Q3 2022

Total deposits were up 2% from the prior quarter. Branch-raised deposits increased 2%, as a 12% increase in fixed term deposits was partially offset by a 2% decline in demand and notice deposits. Lower branch-raised demand and notice deposits primarily reflects both reductions and a shift in existing client deposits to branch-raised term deposits, which more than offset demand and notice deposit growth from net new full-service client additions.

Capital market deposits increased 10% ($0.4 billion) from last quarter, which reflects an opportunistic capital market deposit issuance in the quarter at favourable pricing. Broker deposits declined 3% from prior quarter.

Capital Management

OSFI requires Canadian financial institutions to manage and report regulatory capital in accordance with the Basel III capital management framework. We currently report regulatory capital ratios using the Standardized approach for calculating risk-weighted assets, which requires us to carry significantly more capital for certain credit exposures compared to requirements under the AIRB methodology. For this reason, regulatory capital ratios of banks that utilize the Standardized approach are not directly comparable with the large Canadian banks and other financial institutions that utilize the AIRB methodology. Our required minimum regulatory capital ratios, including a 250 basis point capital conservation buffer, are 7.0% common equity Tier 1 (CET1), 8.5% Tier 1 and 10.5% Total capital.

Regulatory Capital and Capital Adequacy Ratios

Our capital ratios of 8.8% CET1, 10.6% Tier 1 and 12.1% Total capital, and our leverage ratio of 8.1% at October 31, 2022 were relatively stable compared to last year and last quarter.

(unaudited)





As at

October 31
2022



As at

July 31

 2022



As at

October 31

 2021


(millions)




Regulatory capital













     CET1 capital before deductions




$

3,180


$

3,136


$

2,925


     Net CET1 deductions(1)





(318)



(321)



(324)


     CET1 capital





2,861



2,815



2,601


     Tier 1 capital





3,436



3,390



3,176


     Total capital





3,925



3,869



3,650


Risk-weighted assets





32,418



31,645



29,500


Capital adequacy ratios

     CET1





8.8

 

%


8.9

 

%


8.8

 

%

     Tier 1





10.6



10.7



10.8


     Total





12.1



12.2



12.4


Leverage ratio(2)





8.1



8.2



8.6




(1) 

The implementation of the transitional arrangement related to the capital treatment of the performing loan allowance, net of related tax, resulted in a $6 million increase to CET1 and Tier 1 capital (July 31, 2022 – $3 million; October 31, 2021 – $6 million) and had a negligible impact on the CET1 and Tier 1 ratios at October 31, 2022 (July 31, 2022 – negligible impact; October 31, 2021 – negligible impact). The transitional arrangement has no impact on the Total capital ratio.

(2) 

Sovereign-issued securities that qualify as High Quality Liquid Assets under the Liquidity Adequacy Requirements guideline were temporarily excluded from the leverage ratio exposure measure until December 31, 2021. This temporary exclusion positively impacted our leverage ratio by approximately 30 basis points as at October 31, 2021.

 

Changes in Capital Ratios

The CET1 capital ratio of 8.8% was consistent with last year and down ten basis points from last quarter. Compared to last year, the impact of retained earnings growth and common shares issued under our at-the-market (ATM) common equity distribution program were offset by the combined impact of risk-weighted asset growth and an increase in the unrealized loss recognized for our core liquidity portfolio which is recognized at  fair value in accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). Compared to last quarter, the impact of common shares issued under our ATM program and retained earnings growth, was more than offset by risk-weighted asset growth and an increase in AOCI balances, which reflect the same factors as noted in the comparison to last year.

The Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.6% decreased 20 basis points from last year and ten basis points from last quarter, primarily due to the proportional impact of the same factors noted above.

The Total capital ratio of 12.1% decreased 30 basis points from last year and ten basis points from last quarter, primarily due to the proportional impact of the same factors noted above.

ATM Program

On June 1, 2022, we re-established an ATM program to allow the periodic issuance up to a total of $150 million of common shares, at our discretion and if needed, at the prevailing market price, under a prospectus supplement to the CWB short-term base shelf prospectus which expires on July 1, 2024. Under the existing ATM program, we have issued 2,667,171 common shares for gross proceeds of $66 million, or net proceeds of $65 million after commissions and other issuance costs.

The ATM program was re-established following the termination of the previous ATM program established on May 31, 2021, due to the sale of most of the $150 million common shares approved under the previous program.   

We continue to utilize our ATM program to support strong loan growth as we navigate current and future economic volatility, while prudently managing our regulatory capital ratios and driving positive contributions to earnings per common share and ROE.

(unaudited)

For the three months ended

For the year ended

(thousands, except per share amounts)


October 31
2022


July 31

2022


October 31
2021


October 31
2022


October 31
2021

Common shares issued(1)


1,276


1,391


1,148


4,725


2,053

Average price per share

$

23.32

$

26.10

$

36.63

$

29.86

$

35.55

Gross proceeds


29,771


36,289


42,053


141,098


72,969

Net proceeds(2)


29,193


35,433


41,319


138,392


71,353



(1) 

During the six months ended April 30, 2022, we issued 2,058 common shares at an average price of $36.46 per share for gross proceeds of $75,038, or net proceeds of $73,767 after sales commissions and other issuance costs, under our previous ATM program. Subsequent to April 30, 2022, all shares issued were under the new ATM program.

(2) 

Gross proceeds less sales commissions and other issuance costs.

 

Dividends and LRCN Distributions

Common shareholders received a quarterly cash dividend of $0.31 per common share on September 22, 2022. On December 1, 2022, our Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.32 per common share, payable on January 5, 2023 to shareholders of record on December 15, 2022. This quarterly dividend is up one cent, or 3%, from the dividend declared last quarter and up two cents, or 7%, from one year ago.

Consistent with the dividends paid to preferred shareholders on October 31, 2022, the Board of Directors also declared cash dividends of $0.2688125 per Series 5 and $0.375 per Series 9 preferred shares, all payable on January 31, 2023 to shareholders of record on January 24, 2023.

On October 31, 2022, Series 1 NVCC Limited Recourse Capital Notes (LRCN) note holders received a semi-annual coupon payment of $30, per $1,000 principal amount of notes outstanding, reflecting a total payment of $5 million, recorded in common shareholders' net income on an after-tax basis and consistent with the prior year. On July 31, 2022, Series 2 NVCC LRCN note holders received a semi-annual coupon payment of $25 per $1,000 principal amount of notes outstanding, reflecting a total payment of $4 million.

Further information related to our capital position is provided in Note 15 of the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended October 31, 2022.









As at
        October 31
    2022



As at

 July 31

    2022



As at

October 31
2021


(unaudited)











($ thousands)











Assets
















Cash Resources
















 Cash and non-interest bearing deposits with financial institutions







$

81,228


$

98,242


$

87,853


 Interest bearing deposits with financial institutions                                     








26,833



27,083



21,344


 Cheques and other items in transit








7,918



62,044



19,262










115,979



187,369



128,459


Securities                                                                                        
















 Issued or guaranteed by Canada








3,910,821



3,378,602



2,962,290


 Issued or guaranteed by a province or municipality








448,947



488,482



406,708


 Other securities








159,027



127,395



204,880










4,518,795



3,994,479



3,573,878


Securities Purchased under Resale Agreements








-



150,000



30,048


Loans                                                                                                
















 Personal








6,951,826



6,860,608



6,395,524


 Business








28,953,796



28,384,112



26,505,427










35,905,622



35,244,720



32,900,951


 Allowance for credit losses                                                                   








(161,818)



(160,123)



(141,429)










35,743,804



35,084,597



32,759,522


Other
















 Property and equipment








153,026



147,430



130,698


 Goodwill








138,701



138,701



138,701


 Intangible assets








223,921



225,147



227,845


 Derivatives                                                                                                         








110,521



88,483



52,862


 Other assets








435,396



387,732



281,163










1,061,565



987,493



831,269


Total Assets







$

41,440,143


$

40,403,938


$

37,323,176


















Liabilities and Equity
















Deposits                                                                                          
















 Personal







$

17,181,571


$

16,930,003


$

15,198,820


 Business and government








15,837,476



15,456,011



14,776,919










33,019,047



32,386,014



29,975,739


Other
















 Cheques and other items in transit








33,187



55,582



50,110


 Securities sold under repurchase agreements








247,354



-



-


 Derivatives                                                                                                        








156,081



91,961



36,068


 Other liabilities








789,599



711,893



712,309










1,226,221



859,436



798,487


Debt
















 Debt related to securitization activities                                                   








3,088,097



3,057,265



2,641,843


 Subordinated debentures








373,802



373,656



373,222










3,461,899



3,430,921



3,015,065


Equity     
















 Preferred shares                                                                                








250,000



250,000



250,000


 Limited recourse capital notes                                                              








325,000



325,000



325,000


 Common shares                                                                                








956,061



924,789



809,435


 Retained earnings








2,317,146



2,278,921



2,120,795


 Share-based payment reserve








27,466



26,985



26,016


 Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income








(142,697)



(78,128)



2,639


Total Equity








3,732,976



3,727,567



3,533,885


Total Liabilities and Equity







$

41,440,143


$

40,403,938


$

37,323,176


 



For the three months ended


For the year ended

(unaudited)



October 31
     2022



October 31

2021




October 31
2022



October 31

2021


($ thousands, except per share amounts)











Interest Income                                         















Loans


$

465,388


$

329,014



$

1,523,026


$

1,296,954


Securities



15,087



5,153




37,043



20,541


   Deposits with financial institutions



1,098



51




1,836



517





481,573



334,218




1,561,905



1,318,012


Interest Expense















   Deposits 



218,857



87,784




546,136



360,663


   Debt 



22,514



16,509




75,793



64,986





241,371



104,293




621,929



425,649


Net Interest Income



240,202



229,925




939,976



892,363


Non-interest Income















Wealth management services



14,567



15,356




61,928



59,490


Credit related



11,620



9,676




40,449



38,411


Retail services



2,309



2,882




10,264



10,007


Trust services



2,621



2,401




9,991



8,988


(Losses) gains on securities, net



(14)



(84)




(67)



2,978


Other



8,533



468




13,746



3,796





39,636



30,699




136,311



123,670


Total Revenue



279,838



260,624




1,076,287



1,016,033


Provision for (Recovery of) Credit Losses  



12,183



(10,229)




45,997



27,055


Non-interest Expenses















Salaries and employee benefits



88,345



86,340




345,743



325,136


Premises and equipment 



42,604



25,421




127,685



95,954


Other expenses



35,834



29,041




108,349



87,628





166,783



140,802




581,777



508,718


Net Income before Income Taxes



100,872



130,051




448,513



480,260


Income Taxes



25,989



32,823




111,617



123,007


Net Income



74,883



97,228




336,896



357,253


Net income attributable to non-controlling interests



-



-




-



290


Shareholders' Net Income



74,883



97,228




336,896



356,963


Preferred share dividends and limited recourse capital note distributions


7,196



7,230




26,594



29,492


Common Shareholders' Net Income


$

67,687



89,998



$

310,302


$

327,471

















Average number of common shares (in thousands)



93,448



88,699




91,431



87,579


Average number of diluted common shares (in thousands)



93,452



89,076




91,490



87,845


Earnings Per Common Share















   Basic


$

0.72


$

1.01



$

3.39


$

3.74


   Diluted



0.72



1.01




3.39



3.73


 


For the three months ended


For the year ended

(unaudited)

($ thousands)


October 31
2022



October 31

2021



October 31
2022



October 31
2021

Net Income

$

74,883


$

97,228


$

336,896


$

357,253

Other Comprehensive Income (Loss), net of tax












 Items that will be subsequently reclassified to net income












 Debt securities measured at fair value through other comprehensive income












   Unrealized losses from change in fair value(1)


(26,080)



(32,391)



(89,817)



(34,949)

   Reclassification to net income, of (gains) losses in the period(2)


13



(29)



8



(3,316)



(26,067)



(32,420)



(89,809)



(38,265)

 Derivatives designated as cash flow hedges












    Losses from change in fair value(3)


(38,355)



(3,346)



(38,852)



(6,197)

    Reclassification to net income, of (gains) losses in the period(4)


148



(10,456)



(16,508)



(56,121)



(38,207)



(13,802)



(55,360)



(62,318)

 Items that will not be subsequently reclassified to net income












Unrealized gains (losses) on equity securities designated at fair value












  through other comprehensive income(5)


(295)



122



(167)



1,053



(64,569)



(46,100)



(145,336)



(99,530)

Comprehensive Income for the Period

$

10,314


$

51,128


$

191,560


$

257,723













 Comprehensive income for the period attributable to:












   Shareholders

$

10,314


$

51,128


$

191,560


$

257,433

   Non-controlling interests


-



-



-



290

Comprehensive Income for the Period

$

10,314


$

51,128


$

191,560


$

257,723














(1)       

Net of income tax of $9,244 and $27,855 for the quarter and year ended October 31, 2022, respectively (2021 – $10,023 and $10,777).

(2)       

Net of income tax of $7 and $6 for the quarter and year ended October 31, 2022, respectively (2021 – $13 and $1,028).

(3)       

Net of income tax of $11,816 and $11,969 for the quarter and year ended October 31, 2022, respectively (2021 – $993 and $1,924).

(4)       

Net of income tax of $58 and $5,045 for the quarter and year ended October 31, 2022, respectively (2021 – $3,231 and $16,566).

(5)       

Net of income tax of $77 and $39 for the quarter and year ended October 31, 2022, respectively (2021 – $17 and $326).

 



For the year ended

(unaudited)



October 31
  2022


October 31
  2021

($ thousands)




Preferred Shares                                                                                                                                                  






 Balance at beginning of year                                                                                                                                   


$

250,000

$

390,000

   Redeemed



-


(140,000)

 Balance at end of year



250,000


250,000

Limited Recourse Capital Notes                                                                                                                           






 Balance at beginning of year                                                                                                                                   



325,000


175,000

   Issued



-


150,000

 Balance at end of year



325,000


325,000

Common Shares                                                                                                                                                  






 Balance at beginning of year                                                                                                                                   



809,435


730,846

   Issued under at-the-market common equity distribution program



141,098


72,969

   Issued under dividend reinvestment plan



5,005


4,064

   Transferred from share-based payment reserve on the exercise or exchange of options



523


1,556

 Balance at end of year 



956,061


809,435

Retained Earnings






 Balance at beginning of year



2,120,795


1,907,739

   Shareholders' net income



336,896


356,963

   Dividends and other distributions – Preferred shares and limited recourse capital notes



(26,594)


(29,492)

                                                        – Common shares



(111,245)


(101,421)

   Issuance costs on at-the-market common equity distribution program



(2,706)


(1,616)

   Issuance costs on limited recourse capital notes



-


(1,710)

   Realized gains reclassified from accumulated other comprehensive income



-


35

   Decrease in equity attributable to non-controlling interests ownership change



-


(9,703)

 Balance at end of year



2,317,146


2,120,795

Share-based Payment Reserve






 Balance at beginning of year



26,016


25,749

   Amortization of fair value of options                                                                                                                        



1,973


1,823

   Transferred to common shares on the exercise or exchange of options



(523)


(1,556)

 Balance at end of year



27,466


26,016

Accumulated Other Comprehensive (Loss) Income






 Debt securities measured at fair value through other comprehensive income






 Balance at beginning of year



(32,140)


6,125

   Other comprehensive loss



(89,809)


(38,265)

 Balance at end of year



(121,949)


(32,140)

 Derivatives designated as cash flow hedges






 Balance at beginning of year



33,688


96,006

   Other comprehensive loss



(55,360)


(62,318)

 Balance at end of year



(21,672)


33,688

 Equity securities designated at fair value through other comprehensive income






 Balance at beginning of year



1,091


73

   Other comprehensive income



(167)


1,053

   Realized gains reclassified to retained earnings



-


(35)

 Balance at end of year



924


1,091

 Total Accumulated Other Comprehensive (Loss) Income



(142,697)


2,639

Total Shareholders' Equity


3,732,976


3,533,885

Non-controlling Interests






 Balance at beginning of year



-


862

   Net income attributable to non-controlling interests



-


290

   Dividends to non-controlling interests



-


(320)

   Ownership change



-


(832)

 Balance at end of year



-


-

Total Equity


$

3,732,976

$

3,533,885

 




For the year ended


(unaudited)







October 31
2022


October 31
2021

($ thousands)






Cash Flows from Operating Activities










 Net income






$

336,896

$

357,253

  Adjustments to determine net cash flows:










   Depreciation and amortization







80,848


58,297

   Provision for credit losses







45,997


27,055

   Accrued interest receivable and payable, net







28,904


(51,080)

   Current income taxes receivable and payable, net







16,967


(42,232)

   Deferred income taxes, net







6,493


(2,716)

   Amortization of fair value of employee stock options







1,973


1,823

   Losses (gains) on securities, net







67


(2,978)

Change in operating assets and liabilities:










   Deposits, net







3,043,308


2,665,385

   Debt related to securitization activities, net







446,254


590,163

   Securities sold under repurchase agreements, net







247,354


(65,198)

   Securities purchased under resale agreements, net







30,048


20,036

Accounts payable and accrued liabilities







9,295


76,487

   Loans, net







(3,029,428)


(2,778,663)

Derivative collateral receivable and payable, net







(78,128)


(59,472)

   Other items, net







5,219


8,327

Net Cash from (used in) Operating Activities







1,192,067


802,487

Cash Flows from Financing Activities










 Common shares issued, net of issuance costs







138,392


71,353

 Dividends and limited recourse capital note distributions







(132,834)


(126,849)

 Repayment of lease liabilities







(14,353)


(15,944)

 Limited recourse capital notes issued, net of issuance costs







-


148,290

 Preferred shares redeemed







-


(140,000)

 Non-controlling interests, ownership changes, dividends and contributions







-


(11,889)

Net Cash from (used in) Financing Activities







(8,795)


(75,039)

Cash Flows from Investing Activities










 Interest bearing deposits with financial institutions, net







(5,489)


233,107

 Securities, purchased







(3,263,551)


(12,390,535)

 Securities, sale proceeds







1,941,850


8,276,968

 Securities, matured







242,124


3,204,506

 Property, equipment and intangible assets







(99,252)


(56,031)

Net Cash from (used in) Investing Activities







(1,184,318)


(731,985)

Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents







(1,046)


(4,537)

Cash and Cash Equivalents at Beginning of Year







57,005


61,542

Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Year *






$

55,959

$

57,005

* Represented by:










    Cash and non-interest bearing deposits with financial institutions






$

81,228

$

87,853

    Cheques and other items in transit (included in Cash Resources)







7,918


19,262

    Cheques and other items in transit (included in Other Liabilities)







(33,187)


(50,110)

Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Year






$

55,959

$

57,005











Supplemental Disclosure of Cash Flow Information










    Interest and dividends received






$

1,567,080

$

1,369,762

    Interest paid







551,698


473,584

    Income taxes paid







86,860


128,385

 

SOURCE CWB Financial Group

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives…

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives floating around corporate media platforms has been the argument that the American people “just don’t seem to understand how good the economy really is right now.” If only they would look at the stats, they would realize that we are in the middle of a financial renaissance, right? It must be that people have been brainwashed by negative press from conservative sources…

I have to laugh at this notion because it’s a very common one throughout history – it’s an assertion made by almost every single political regime right before a major collapse. These people always say the same things, and when you study economics as long as I have you can’t help but throw up your hands and marvel at their dedication to the propaganda.

One example that comes to mind immediately is the delusional optimism of the “roaring” 1920s and the lead up to the Great Depression. At the time around 60% of the U.S. population was living in poverty conditions (according to the metrics of the decade) earning less than $2000 a year. However, in the years after WWI ravaged Europe, America’s economic power was considered unrivaled.

The 1920s was an era of mass production and rampant consumerism but it was all fueled by easy access to debt, a condition which had not really existed before in America. It was this illusion of prosperity created by the unchecked application of credit that eventually led to the massive stock market bubble and the crash of 1929. This implosion, along with the Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates into economic weakness, created a black hole in the U.S. financial system for over a decade.

There are two primary tools that various failing regimes will often use to distort the true conditions of the economy: Debt and inflation. In the case of America today, we are experiencing BOTH problems simultaneously and this has made certain economic indicators appear healthy when they are, in fact, highly unstable. The average American knows this is the case because they see the effects everyday. They see the damage to their wallets, to their buying power, in the jobs market and in their quality of life. This is why public faith in the economy has been stuck in the dregs since 2021.

The establishment can flash out-of-context stats in people’s faces, but they can’t force the populace to see a recovery that simply does not exist. Let’s go through a short list of the most faulty indicators and the real reasons why the fiscal picture is not a rosy as the media would like us to believe…

The “miracle” labor market recovery

In the case of the U.S. labor market, we have a clear example of distortion through inflation. The $8 trillion+ dropped on the economy in the first 18 months of the pandemic response sent the system over the edge into stagflation land. Helicopter money has a habit of doing two things very well: Blowing up a bubble in stock markets and blowing up a bubble in retail. Hence, the massive rush by Americans to go out and buy, followed by the sudden labor shortage and the race to hire (mostly for low wage part-time jobs).

The problem with this “miracle” is that inflation leads to price explosions, which we have already experienced. The average American is spending around 30% more for goods, services and housing compared to what they were spending in 2020. This is what happens when you have too much money chasing too few goods and limited production.

The jobs market looks great on paper, but the majority of jobs generated in the past few years are jobs that returned after the covid lockdowns ended. The rest are jobs created through monetary stimulus and the artificial retail rush. Part time low wage service sector jobs are not going to keep the country rolling for very long in a stagflation environment. The question is, what happens now that the stimulus punch bowl has been removed?

Just as we witnessed in the 1920s, Americans have turned to debt to make up for higher prices and stagnant wages by maxing out their credit cards. With the central bank keeping interest rates high, the credit safety net will soon falter. This condition also goes for businesses; the same businesses that will jump headlong into mass layoffs when they realize the party is over. It happened during the Great Depression and it will happen again today.

Cracks in the foundation

We saw cracks in the narrative of the financial structure in 2023 with the banking crisis, and without the Federal Reserve backstop policy many more small and medium banks would have dropped dead. The weakness of U.S. banks is offset by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, which lures in foreign investors hoping to protect their wealth using dollar denominated assets.

But something is amiss. Gold and bitcoin have rocketed higher along with economically sensitive assets and the dollar. This is the opposite of what’s supposed to happen. Gold and BTC are supposed to be hedges against a weak dollar and a weak economy, right? If global faith in the dollar and in the U.S. economy is so high, why are investors diving into protective assets like gold?

Again, as noted above, inflation distorts everything.

Tens of trillions of extra dollars printed by the Fed are floating around and it’s no surprise that much of that cash is flooding into the economy which simply pushes higher right along with prices on the shelf. But, gold and bitcoin are telling us a more honest story about what’s really happening.

Right now, the U.S. government is adding around $600 billion per month to the national debt as the Fed holds rates higher to fight inflation. This debt is going to crush America’s financial standing for global investors who will eventually ask HOW the U.S. is going to handle that growing millstone? As I predicted years ago, the Fed has created a perfect Catch-22 scenario in which the U.S. must either return to rampant inflation, or, face a debt crisis. In either case, U.S. dollar-denominated assets will lose their appeal and their prices will plummet.

“Healthy” GDP is a complete farce

GDP is the most common out-of-context stat used by governments to convince the citizenry that all is well. It is yet another stat that is entirely manipulated by inflation. It is also manipulated by the way in which modern governments define “economic activity.”

GDP is primarily driven by spending. Meaning, the higher inflation goes, the higher prices go, and the higher GDP climbs (to a point). Eventually prices go too high, credit cards tap out and spending ceases. But, for a short time inflation makes GDP (as well as retail sales) look good.

Another factor that creates a bubble is the fact that government spending is actually included in the calculation of GDP. That’s right, every dollar of your tax money that the government wastes helps the establishment by propping up GDP numbers. This is why government spending increases will never stop – It’s too valuable for them to spend as a way to make the economy appear healthier than it is.

The REAL economy is eclipsing the fake economy

The bottom line is that Americans used to be able to ignore the warning signs because their bank accounts were not being directly affected. This is over. Now, every person in the country is dealing with a massive decline in buying power and higher prices across the board on everything – from food and fuel to housing and financial assets alike. Even the wealthy are seeing a compression to their profit and many are struggling to keep their businesses in the black.

The unfortunate truth is that the elections of 2024 will probably be the turning point at which the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Even if the public votes for change, the system is already broken and cannot be repaired without a complete overhaul.

We have consistently avoided taking our medicine and our disease has gotten worse and worse.

People have lost faith in the economy because they have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s. Even the stagflation crisis of the 1970s will likely pale in comparison to what is about to happen. On the bright side, at least a large number of Americans are aware of the threat, as opposed to the 1920s when the vast majority of people were utterly conned by the government, the banks and the media into thinking all was well. Knowing is the first step to preparing.

The second step is securing your own financial future – that’s where physical precious metals can play a role. Diversifying your savings with inflation-resistant, uninflatable assets whose intrinsic value doesn’t rely on a counterparty’s promise to pay adds resilience to your savings. That’s the main reason physical gold and silver have been the safe haven store-of-value assets of choice for centuries (among both the elite and the everyday citizen).

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As the world moves away from dollars and toward Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), is your 401(k) or IRA really safe? A smart and conservative move is to diversify into a physical gold IRA. That way your savings will be in something solid and enduring. Get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group. No strings attached, just peace of mind. Click here to secure your future today.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 17:00

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