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Cryptos Are Spiking Again: Ether At 2-Year Highs, Bitcoin “Perfectly On Track” For $100k

Cryptos Are Spiking Again: Ether At 2-Year Highs, Bitcoin "Perfectly On Track" For $100k

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Cryptos Are Spiking Again: Ether At 2-Year Highs, Bitcoin "Perfectly On Track" For $100k Tyler Durden Sat, 08/01/2020 - 14:55

The incessant fall in the dollar and surge in global negative-yielding debt appears to continue to push the global citizenry into alternative assets, such as precious metals and cryptos.

Source: Bloomberg

And, as CoinTelegraph's Michael Kapilov notes, a recent Bloomberg article claims that Americans are foregoing the safety of the dollar. Because of the COVID-19 lockdown, the personal savings rate in the U.S. is at a historic high. The yield offered by the financial institutions on savings accounts, however, is close to zero. At the same time, assets as Bitcoin, equities, and gold, all have made double-digit gains since March. This is making them an attractive option for investors.

Source: Bloomberg.

The article mentions a 28 year-old Californian, who told the reporter that he is going to convert his $15,000 savings held in a high-yield savings account at Ally Bank into Bitcoin. He says that he is doing so because he expects long-term economic stagnation.

 

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

July was USD’s worst month in a decade

The reality is even worse than what the Bloomberg article posits. It is no secret that the dollar is rapidly depreciating against other leading fiat currencies. In fact, according to the Financial Times, July is the dollar’s worst month in a decade.

Bitcoin and U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)  July 2020.

With another round of stimulus checks around the corner and most of the nation still affected by COVID-19 restrictions, it is possible that this problem will only get worse. Americans may likely have more depreciating fiat on their hands in the short term, and could seek to convert their holdings into higher-yielding assets. However, there is no such thing as a free lunch. In the investment world, high-return comes with high-risk.

And the gains are increasing this weekend...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum is now up 12 of the last 13 days...

Source: Bloomberg

Soaring to its highest in two years...

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin surpassed $11,700 as CoinTelegraph's Joseph Young notes that the creator of the Stock to Flow model says BTC to $100,000 is well on track.

Source: Bloomberg

PlanB, the well-known creator of the contested stock-to-flow (S2F) model, believes Bitcoin (BTC) is now well on track to reach $100,000 as the price has risen to yearly highs. The optimistic sentiment coincides with the shift in momentum from alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, to BTC.

He said:

“I can't make a chart for you now (at sea), but S2F model perfectly on track.”

At the same time, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 17% this week, as it broke through a major three-year trendline. As Cointelegraph reported, traders seemingly expect BTC to test higher resistance levels in the near term.

The price of Bitcoin surpasses $11,700 on its way to $100,000

Data shows it might be the time for Bitcoin to shine

Altcoin declined particularly in the past 72 hours when the price of Bitcoin started to rally. Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) moved in tandem with BTC throughout the rally, but it slumped against BTC in the past two days.

In the short term, as Bitcoin sees a profit-taking rally from altcoins, some investors expect BTC to outperform altcoins. Kelvin Koh, the co-founder of Asia-based venture capital firm Spartan Group, said:

“If BTC breaks the resistance at $11.4K, we are going above $12K in no time. Will take the wind out of alts again short term.”

The pattern of a Bitcoin rally following a strong altcoin season is not new. In previous cycles, the top cryptocurrency typically saw a sharp uptrend after altcoins initially gained against BTC. Such a trend materializes because investors seek safer options, like BTC, when the altcoin market gets overheated.

Most recently, the fear of missing out, or FOMO, of retail investors around DeFi led small market cap tokens to surge substantially. In the early days of the DeFi market craze, for example, Compound (COMP) saw a major rally. Then, smaller tokens, including Yearn Finance (YFI), Synthetix Network (SNX), and Aave (LEND), followed.

Eventually, as small tokens saw five to ten-fold spikes in price, investors started to take profit. The abrupt pullback of DeFi tokens coincided with a BTC rally as momentum shifted back to Bitcoin.

Traders say the trend is still up

Data from Skew shows that tens of millions of dollars worth of short contracts are still getting liquidated. It indicates that a relatively large number of investors are betting against BTC in the near term.

Bitcoin liquidations on BitMEX. Source: Skew

Cryptocurrency trader Cantering Clark said that while he understands why shorts are compelling, the upward trend is too strong. He said:

“Looking at trades from the standpoint of R:R is good, but understanding context is superior. After a major contextual change like this, you can assume that your shorts have a lower probability of resolving successfully. Bets should be on strength always showing up.”

For some traders, a short against Bitcoin could be attractive because BTC has increased steeply in the past week and is testing major resistance levels. 

A 17% rally in six days — even during a bull market — is substantial, even for Bitcoin. But when the trend of BTC is overwhelmingly bullish, a short squeeze could only add more rocket fuel.

In the last 12 hours, more than $23 million worth of shorts were liquidated, for example, as the price hit as high as $11,750. Thus, during a strong upward price trend, shorts could indirectly catalyze a larger rally.

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sends $15M of USDC to Gemini

Blockchain sleuths flagged a $14.9 million transfer of USDC coming from a wallet associated with Vitalik Buterin.
Blockchain sleuths…

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October 17, 2023

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Blockchain sleuths flagged a $14.9 million transfer of USDC coming from a wallet associated with Vitalik Buterin.

Blockchain sleuths have zeroed in on a recent transaction from a wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, where he transferred $14.9 million worth of USD Coin (USDC) to the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini.

According to an Oct. 17 post from blockchain analytics firm PeckShield on X, Buterin’s wallet “Vitalik.eth” transferred $14.93 million to Gemini on Oct. 16.

The transaction was independently verified by Cointelegraph on Etherscan.

Vitalik received the original sum of 14.93 million USDC from Kanro, a charity affiliated with Vitalik on Oct. 14.

Separate analysis from crypto data provider Lookonchain found that Buterin had also recently transferred nearly $500,000 to Coinbase three days prior.

The price of Ethereum’s native currency Ether (ETH) held steady following news of the transfer, falling just 0.68% in the past four hours, according to price data from Coingecko.

The price of Ether (ETH) held flat following the news of the transfer. Source: CoinGecko

Related: Ethereum losing streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months — Can ETH price reverse course?

Buterin’s most recent transaction is the latest in a spate of ETH deposits to centralized exchanges over the past few months, with the total transfers from Buterin’s wallets totalling more than $3.9 million in September.

On Sept. 24, Buterin transferred 400 ETH — worth $600,000 at the time — to Coinbase. Cointelegraph previously reported a 600 ETH ($1 million) transaction from the vitalik.eth address on Aug. 21, which was also identified by on-chain monitoring platforms.

Magazine: Are DAOs overhyped and unworkable? Lessons from the front lines

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EUR/NZD Technical – Start of a new potential bullish impulsive up move

The Kiwi dollar (NZD) has been the worst performer among the US dollar major pairs in the past five days. A further slowdown in New Zealand’s Q3 CPI…

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46 mins ago

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October 17, 2023

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  • The Kiwi dollar (NZD) has been the worst performer among the US dollar major pairs in the past five days.
  • A further slowdown in New Zealand’s Q3 CPI (5.6% y/y versus 6% y/y in Q2) reinforces RBNZ’s current stance of maintaining its key policy official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%.
  • A less hawkish RBNZ may put further downside pressure on the NZD that supports an ongoing major uptrend phase in the EUR/NZD cross pair.
  • Watch the 1.7820 key short-term pivotal support on the EUR/NZD.

The Kiwi dollar (NZD) has been the weakest performer among the US dollar major pairs ex-post New Zealand’s general election held over the weekend which saw a change in government towards the centre-right National Party.

Fig 1:  USD major pairs rolling 5-day performance as of 17 Oct 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Based on a 5-day rolling performance basis as of 17 October 2023, the USD/NZD has recorded a gain of +2.5% at this time of the writing reinforced by a slowdown in inflationary pressures in New Zealand where its Q3 consumer inflation rate released today inched down to 5.6% y/y from 6% y/y in Q2 and below consensus expectations of 5.9% y/y.

This latest set of CPI data marks the third consecutive quarter of inflationary pressures cooldown from a 22-year high of 7.3% y/y printed in Q2 2022 that supports New Zealand’s central bank, RBNZ current stance of keeping the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5% for a period of time, so far it has held the policy rate steady for three consecutive monetary policy meetings with next upcoming meeting on 29 November.

The ongoing weak performance of the USD/NZD against other US dollar major pairs has led to a resurgence of bullish impulsive sequences in several variable quoted NZD cross pairs such as the EUR/NZD.

Bullish reversal right at major ascending channel support

Fig 2:  EUR/NZD major & medium-term trends as of 17 Oct 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The 7-week of corrective decline seen in the EUR/NZD cross pair from its 21 August 2023 high of 1.8462 to its recent 10 October 2023 low of 1.7508 is likely to have ended where price actions staged a significant bullish reversal of + 336 pips in a span of five days right at a key medium-term support of 1.7510 that confluences with the key upward sloping 200-day moving average and the lower boundary of the major ascending channel in place since 12 April 2022 low of 1.5880.

In conjunction, the daily RSI indicator flashed a prior bullish divergence condition at its overbought region on 9 October and now inched higher above the 50 level. These observations suggest the potential revival of medium-term bullish momentum where price actions of the EUR/NZD may kick start of fresh multi-week bullish impulsive up move sequence within its major uptrend phase that is still intact since the April 2022 low of 1.5594.

Cleared above 20-day moving average

Fig 3:  EUR/NZD minor short-term trend as of 17 Oct 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The EUR/NZD has also cleared above its 20-day moving average and retested it yesterday, 16 October before it inched up to print a “higher high” as seen on the 1-hour chart.

This current set of up moves suggests that the EUR/NZD is likely to be oscillating within a short-term uptrend phase in place since 10 October 2023 depicted by the minor ascending channel.

Watch the 1.7820 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish tone for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.7980 and 1.8030 (50-day moving average, the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel and Fibonacci extension level).

On the flip side, a break below 1.7820 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the immediate support zone of 1.7740/1.7700 (20-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from 10 October 2023 low to 17 October 2023 current intraday high of 1.7902).

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Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD

Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

At the same…

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46 mins ago

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October 17, 2023

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Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

At the same time the governing left-liberal coalition crashes in the polls, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is surging ahead, reaching a new record high in a major state-run poll.

AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

According to the most recent ARD Deutschlandtrend poll, all parties of the ruling traffic light coalition only have 33 percent of the vote, while the AfD is now stronger than the SPD and the Free Democrats (FDP) combined, reaching 23 percent of the vote.

According to Infratest dimap, the three-party ruling coalition has reached a new low among Germans. Only 15 percent back the SPD, while 13 percent would vote for the Greens and 5 percent for the FDP. Given that 5 percent is needed to enter parliament, the FDP is under threat of being removed entirely, which is putting the coalition on increasingly shaky ground.

AfD party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated the new record high, writing: “New record also in the ARD Germany trend: The AfD is now at 23% here too! In addition, 50% of citizens would like the AfD to be in government where it has performed strongly. A great confirmation of our work!”

The poll showed all three governing parties dropping one point compared to polling from a week ago. For the Social Democrats, this is the worst result during this legislative period; in the federal election approximately two years ago, SPD had 25.7 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, FDP has seen its vote cut in half since 2021, when it received 11.5 percent of the electoral vote.

The AfD is enjoying a record lead over the SPD, coming in at an unprecedented eight points. Meanwhile, the Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists (CDU/CSU) continue their run on top of the polls, coming in at 29 percent, a bump of one point compared to last week. The Free Voters and the Left Party would each have 4 percent.

Voters’ top concern is immigration, while climate change becomes a non-issue

Voters also say their top concern is mass immigration, with 44 percent of voters naming this as the most important political problem that politicians should address. This issue towers over the other problems facing the country, with armed conflicts/peace/foreign policy only coming in at 18 percent, while the economy comes in at 11 percent and inflation and taxes at 10 percent.

Regarding the environment and climate change, only 1 percent of Germans list this as the most pressing issue.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/17/2023 - 02:00

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