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Cox Automotive Lowers Full-Year New-Vehicle Sales Forecast as September Volumes Hold Steady at Low Level; Third Quarter Sales Volume Expected to Decline Versus Q3 2021

Cox Automotive Lowers Full-Year New-Vehicle Sales Forecast as September Volumes Hold Steady at Low Level; Third Quarter Sales Volume Expected to Decline Versus Q3 2021
PR Newswire
ATLANTA, Sept. 28, 2022

September new-vehicle sales pace forecast to…

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Cox Automotive Lowers Full-Year New-Vehicle Sales Forecast as September Volumes Hold Steady at Low Level; Third Quarter Sales Volume Expected to Decline Versus Q3 2021

PR Newswire

  • September new-vehicle sales pace forecast to finish near 13.3 million units, up 0.1 million from last month's 13.2 million pace and up from last year's 12.3 million level.
  • Sales volume in September expected to rise nearly 8% from one year ago but remain relatively low at 1.10 million units.
  • Third-quarter sales to finish near 3.4 million units, down less than 1% from Q3 2021.
  • Cox Automotive officially lowers 2022 new-vehicle sales forecast to 13.7 million, down more than 9% from 2021 and at the lowest volume in a decade.

ATLANTA, Sept. 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- September U.S. auto sales, when confirmed next week, are expected to show a new-vehicle market mostly unchanged from previous months and still stuck in low gear. According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, September U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to finish near 1.10 million units, with a sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), of 13.3 million. Sales volume in September is expected to show an increase of nearly 8% over last year but finish down almost 4% compared to last month. The decline compared to last month is mainly attributed to one less selling day.

Cox Automotive forecast: September U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to finish near 1.10 million units.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "New-vehicle sales have been remarkably consistent through the third quarter, with sales of approximately 1.1 million units each month in July, August, and September. New-vehicle inventory has been holding steady, with days' supply near 40."

With the September result, total new-vehicle sales in the third quarter are forecast at 3.4 million units, down less than 1% from Q3 2021 and down only modestly from the 3.5 million units sold in Q2 2022. For comparison, sales in Q3 2019 reached 4.3 million. General Motors, Ford and Tesla will be among the biggest gainers year over year in Q3, with many Japanese brands, still struggling with inventory issues, booking the most significant declines, notably Honda and Nissan.

One year ago, the new-vehicle market began suffering a significant lack of inventory, and the sales pace fell to 12.3 million in September 2021. Inventory has improved since but remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Added Chesbrough, "The supply shortage has likely created some pent-up demand—folks who were essentially waiting in line for inventory to return. But the recent changes in the economic outlook from rising interest rates is beginning to chip away at demand, and the waiting line for new vehicles is likely getting much shorter."

With no notable inventory improvement forecast in the fourth quarter and waning new-vehicle demand, Cox Automotive has lowered its full-year forecast to 13.7 million units, down from 14.4 million. Sales in 2022 are projected to finish down more than 9% versus 2021 and at the lowest level in a decade.

September 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights

  • New-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise 7.7% from September 2021 but decline 3.9% from last month.
  • The SAAR in September 2022 is estimated to be 13.3 million, above last year's 12.3 million level and up 0.1 million from last month's pace.
  • September 2022 had 25 selling days, one less than August but equal to September 2021.

Sales Forecast1

Market Share


Segment

Sep-22

Sep-21

Aug-22

YOY%

MOM%

Sep-22

Aug-22

MOM


Mid-Size Car

65,000

53,645

67,798

21.2 %

-4.1 %

5.9 %

5.9 %

0.0 %


Compact Car

70,000

70,476

71,878

-0.7 %

-2.6 %

6.4 %

6.3 %

0.1 %


Compact SUV/Crossover

170,000

133,152

172,148

27.7 %

-1.2 %

15.5 %

15.0 %

0.4 %


Full-Size Pickup Truck

160,000

156,188

166,442

2.4 %

-3.9 %

14.5 %

14.5 %

0.0 %


Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

190,000

196,346

193,927

-3.2 %

-2.0 %

17.3 %

16.9 %

0.3 %


Grand Total2

1,100,000

1,021,244

1,144,580

7.7 %

-3.9 %





Cox Automotive Industry Insights data 

2 Total includes segments not shown  

Q3 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights

  • Total sales hold steady through Q3, consistently at 1.13 million units a month. Year-to-date sales at the end of Q3 are expected to be down nearly 13%.
  • General Motors retains the top spot as the best-selling automaker in the U.S. market in Q3, thanks partly to inventory improvements versus 2021.
  • Tesla is forecast to gain share again in Q3 and hold the top spot as the best-selling luxury automaker in the U.S.

Sales Forecast1

Year-to-Date Sales Forecast


OEM

Q3 2022

Q3 2021

Q2 2022

YOY%

QOQ%

YTD 2022

YTD 2021

YOY



General Motors

539,028

443,117

578,639

21.6 %

-6.8 %

1,626,789

1,766,219

-7.9 %



Toyota

513,846

566,005

531,105

-9.2 %

-3.2 %

1,559,543

1,857,884

-16.1 %



Ford

473,595

397,644

480,558

19.1 %

-1.4 %

1,383,327

1,387,615

-0.3 %



Hyundai

390,689

370,536

380,282

5.4 %

2.7 %

1,093,564

1,175,480

-7.0 %



Stellantis

388,481

410,917

408,521

-5.5 %

-4.9 %

1,202,223

1,365,880

-12.0 %



Honda

211,326

345,914

239,789

-38.9 %

-11.9 %

717,533

1,179,424

-39.2 %



Nissan-Mitsubishi

163,462

222,754

205,043

-26.6 %

-20.3 %

595,986

859,832

-30.7 %



Volkswagen

159,232

135,629

145,822

17.4 %

9.2 %

418,594

505,163

-17.1 %



Subaru

135,747

141,552

131,449

-4.1 %

3.3 %

399,542

462,802

-13.7 %



Tesla

126,844

91,693

130,047

38.3 %

-2.5 %

386,634

237,223

63.0 %



BMW

85,925

82,064

84,036

4.7 %

2.2 %

250,551

265,683

-5.7 %



Daimler

84,905

71,185

98,835

19.3 %

-14.1 %

259,679

253,543

2.4 %



Mazda

72,299

84,046

60,535

-14.0 %

19.4 %

215,102

273,213

-21.3 %



Geely

22,402

32,436

30,055

-30.9 %

-25.5 %

76,724

96,456

-20.5 %



Tata

13,837

19,064

12,545

-27.4 %

10.3 %

44,575

75,279

-40.8 %



Grand Total2

3,387,127

3,414,557

3,522,210

-0.8 %

-3.8 %

10,242,511

11,761,697

-12.9 %















Cox Automotive Industry Insights data 

2 Total includes OEMs not shown  

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company's more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

Media Contacts:

Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346  
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com                 

Dara Hailes         
470 658 0656      
dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com

        

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Looking Back At COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes

After having moved from Canada to the United States, partly to be wealthier and partly to be freer (those two are connected, by the way), I was shocked,…

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After having moved from Canada to the United States, partly to be wealthier and partly to be freer (those two are connected, by the way), I was shocked, in March 2020, when President Trump and most US governors imposed heavy restrictions on people’s freedom. The purpose, said Trump and his COVID-19 advisers, was to “flatten the curve”: shut down people’s mobility for two weeks so that hospitals could catch up with the expected demand from COVID patients. In her book Silent Invasion, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, admitted that she was scrambling during those two weeks to come up with a reason to extend the lockdowns for much longer. As she put it, “I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.” In short, she chose the goal and then tried to find the data to justify the goal. This, by the way, was from someone who, along with her task force colleague Dr. Anthony Fauci, kept talking about the importance of the scientific method. By the end of April 2020, the term “flatten the curve” had all but disappeared from public discussion.

Now that we are four years past that awful time, it makes sense to look back and see whether those heavy restrictions on the lives of people of all ages made sense. I’ll save you the suspense. They didn’t. The damage to the economy was huge. Remember that “the economy” is not a term used to describe a big machine; it’s a shorthand for the trillions of interactions among hundreds of millions of people. The lockdowns and the subsequent federal spending ballooned the budget deficit and consequent federal debt. The effect on children’s learning, not just in school but outside of school, was huge. These effects will be with us for a long time. It’s not as if there wasn’t another way to go. The people who came up with the idea of lockdowns did so on the basis of abstract models that had not been tested. They ignored a model of human behavior, which I’ll call Hayekian, that is tested every day.

These are the opening two paragraphs of my latest Defining Ideas article, “Looking Back at COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes,” Defining Ideas, March 14, 2024.

Another excerpt:

That wasn’t the only uncertainty. My daughter Karen lived in San Francisco and made her living teaching Pilates. San Francisco mayor London Breed shut down all the gyms, and so there went my daughter’s business. (The good news was that she quickly got online and shifted many of her clients to virtual Pilates. But that’s another story.) We tried to see her every six weeks or so, whether that meant our driving up to San Fran or her driving down to Monterey. But were we allowed to drive to see her? In that first month and a half, we simply didn’t know.

Read the whole thing, which is longer than usual.

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The hostility Black women face in higher education carries dire consequences

9 Black women who were working on or recently earned their PhDs told a researcher they felt isolated and shut out.

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Isolation can make opportunities elusive. fotostorm via Getty Images

Isolated. Abused. Overworked.

These are the themes that emerged when I invited nine Black women to chronicle their professional experiences and relationships with colleagues as they earned their Ph.D.s at a public university in the Midwest. I featured their writings in the dissertation I wrote to get my Ph.D. in curriculum and instruction.

The women spoke of being silenced.

“It’s not just the beating me down that is hard,” one participant told me about constantly having her intelligence questioned. “It is the fact that it feels like I’m villainized and made out to be the problem for trying to advocate for myself.”

The women told me they did not feel like they belonged. They spoke of routinely being isolated by peers and potential mentors.

One participant told me she felt that peer community, faculty mentorship and cultural affinity spaces were lacking.

Because of the isolation, participants often felt that they were missing out on various opportunities, such as funding and opportunities to get their work published.

Participants also discussed the ways they felt they were duped into taking on more than their fair share of work.

“I realized I had been tricked into handling a two- to four-person job entirely by myself,” one participant said of her paid graduate position. “This happened just about a month before the pandemic occurred so it very quickly got swept under the rug.”

Why it matters

The hostility that Black women face in higher education can be hazardous to their health. The women in my study told me they were struggling with depression, had thought about suicide and felt physically ill when they had to go to campus.

Other studies have found similar outcomes. For instance, a 2020 study of 220 U.S. Black college women ages 18-48 found that even though being seen as a strong Black woman came with its benefits – such as being thought of as resilient, hardworking, independent and nurturing – it also came at a cost to their mental and physical health.

These kinds of experiences can take a toll on women’s bodies and can result in poor maternal health, cancer, shorter life expectancy and other symptoms that impair their ability to be well.

I believe my research takes on greater urgency in light of the recent death of Antoinette “Bonnie” Candia-Bailey, who was vice president of student affairs at Lincoln University. Before she died by suicide, she reportedly wrote that she felt she was suffering abuse and that the university wasn’t taking her mental health concerns seriously.

What other research is being done

Several anthologies examine the negative experiences that Black women experience in academia. They include education scholars Venus Evans-Winters and Bettina Love’s edited volume, “Black Feminism in Education,” which examines how Black women navigate what it means to be a scholar in a “white supremacist patriarchal society.” Gender and sexuality studies scholar Stephanie Evans analyzes the barriers that Black women faced in accessing higher education from 1850 to 1954. In “Black Women, Ivory Tower,” African American studies professor Jasmine Harris recounts her own traumatic experiences in the world of higher education.

What’s next

In addition to publishing the findings of my research study, I plan to continue exploring the depths of Black women’s experiences in academia, expanding my research to include undergraduate students, as well as faculty and staff.

I believe this research will strengthen this field of study and enable people who work in higher education to develop and implement more comprehensive solutions.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

Ebony Aya received funding from the Black Collective Foundation in 2022 to support the work of the Aya Collective.

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US Economic Growth Still Expected To Slow In Q1 GDP Report

A new round of nowcasts continue to estimate that US economic activity will downshift in next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data. Today’s revised…

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A new round of nowcasts continue to estimate that US economic activity will downshift in next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data. Today’s revised estimate is based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

Output for the January-through-March period is currently projected to soften to a 2.1% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The estimate reflects a substantially softer rise vs. Q4’s strong 3.2% advance, which in turn marks a downshift from Q3’s red-hot 4.9% increase, according to government data.

Today’s revised Q1 estimate was essentially unchanged from the previous Q1 nowcast (published on Mar. 7). At this late date in the current quarter, the odds are relatively high that the current median estimate is a reasonable guesstimate for the actual GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish in late-April.

GDP rising at roughly a 2% pace marks another slowdown from recent quarters, but if the current nowcast is correct it suggests that recession risk remains low. The question is whether the slowdown persists into Q2 and beyond. Given the expected deceleration in growth on tap for Q1, the economy may be flirting with a tipping point for recession later in the year. It’s premature to make such a forecast with high confidence, but it’s a scenario that’s increasingly plausible, albeit speculatively so for now.

Yesterday’s release of retail sales numbers for February aligns with the possibility that even softer growth is coming. Although spending rebounded last month after January’s steep decline, the bounce was lowr than expected.

“The modest rebound in retail sales in February suggests that consumer spending growth slowed in early 2024,” says Michael Pearce, Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist.

Reviewing retail spending on a year-over-year basis provides a clearer view of the softer-growth profile. The pace edged up to 1.5% last month vs. the year-earlier level, but that’s close to the slowest increase in the post-pandemic recovery.

Despite emerging signs of slowing growth, relief for the economy in the form of interest-rate cuts may be further out in time than recently expected, due to the latest round of sticky inflation news this week.

“When the Fed is contemplating a series of rate cuts and is confronted by suddenly slower economic growth and suddenly brisker inflation, they will respond to the new news on the inflation side every time,” says Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. “After all, this is not the first time in the past couple of years consumers have paused spending for a couple of months to catch their breath.”


How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report


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