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COVID-19’s total cost to the economy in US will reach $14 trillion by end of 2023 – new research

Workplace absences, along with sales lost due to the cessation of brick-and-mortar retail shopping, airline travel and public gatherings, contributed the…

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Once guests trickled back into hotels, they were urged to socially distance. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

The big idea

The economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. will reach US$14 trillion by the end of 2023, our team of economists, public policy researchers and other experts have estimated.

Putting a price tag on all the pain, suffering and upheaval Americans and people around the world have experienced because of COVID-19 is, of course, hard to do. More than 1.1 million people have died as a result of COVID-19 in the U.S., and many more have been hospitalized or lost loved ones. Based on data from the first 30 months of the pandemic, we forecast the scale of total economic losses over a four-year period, from January 2020 to December 2023.

To come up with our estimates, our team used economic modeling to approximate the revenue lost due to mandatory business closures at the beginning of the pandemic. We also used modeling to assess the economic blows from the many changes in personal behavior that continued long after the lockdown orders were lifted – such as avoiding restaurants, theaters and other crowded places.

Workplace absences, and sales lost due to the cessation of brick-and-mortar retail shopping, air travel and public gatherings, contributed the most. At the height of the pandemic, in the second quarter of 2020, our survey indicates that international and domestic airline travel fell by nearly 60%, indoor dining by 65% and in-store shopping by 43%.

We found that the three sectors that lost the most ground during the first 30 months of the pandemic were air travel, dining, and health and social services, which contracted by 57.5%, 26.5% and 29.16%, respectively.

These losses were offset to a degree by surges in online purchases, a series of large fiscal stimulus and economic relief packages and an unprecedented expansion of the number of Americans working from home – and thus were able to keep doing jobs that might otherwise have been cut.

From 2020 to 2023, the cumulative net economic output of the United States will amount to about $103 trillion. Without the pandemic, the total of GDP over those four years would have been $117 trillion – nearly 14% higher in inflation-adjusted 2020 dollars, according to our analysis.

We also simulated four different possible economic outcomes had the number of COVID-19 deaths been different because of either more or less successful public health strategies in the first 30 months of the pandemic.

The direct health expenses, driven mostly by hospitalization costs in these scenarios, would have totaled $20 billion in a best-case scenario in which 65,000 Americans would have died from January 2020 to June 2022. In the worst-case scenario, about 2 million would have died during that period, with $365 billion in direct health-related expenses.

Based on our findings, most economic losses were not due to these health care expenditures.

Why it matters

The COVID-19 pandemic’s economic consequences are unprecedented for the U.S. by any measure. The toll we estimate that it took on the nation’s gross domestic product is twice the size of that of the Great Recession of 2007-2009. It’s 20 times greater than the economic costs of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and 40 times greater than the toll of any other disaster to befall the U.S. in the 21st century to date.

Although the federal government has now lifted its COVID-19 Public Health Emergency declaration, the pandemic is still influencing the U.S. economy. The labor force participation rate, which stood at 62.6% in April 2023, has only recently neared the February 2020 level of 63.3%.

What is not known

We modeled only the pandemic’s standard economic effects. We didn’t estimate the vast array of economic costs tied to COVID-19, such as lost years of work after an early death or a severe case of long-COVID-19.

We also didn’t assess the costs due to the many ways that the disease has affected the physical and mental health of the U.S. population or the learning loss experienced by students.

Jakub Hlávka received funding from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to conduct COVID-19-related research.

Adam Rose receive funding from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

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Financial struggles force rival of Tesla and Volvo into bankruptcy

This startup first opened its doors in 2019.

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Electric semi-truck competitor Volta Trucks said Tuesday that it has begun the process of filing for bankruptcy in Sweden, only a few years after the company got its start in 2019. 

Volta said in a statement that its manufacturing plans took a heavy hit when its battery supplier Proterra filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in August. The uncertainty that emanated from that suddenly challenging environment hindered the company's ability to raise enough money to remain viable. 

Related: Elon Musk's Tesla Is Making a Big Move With Pepsi

"The Board has not taken this course easily or lightly and is fully aware of the significant impact this will have on the organization’s dedicated workforce, as well as customers and partners," Volta said in a statement.  

"We would like to sincerely thank the Volta Trucks team and are incredibly proud of their pioneering work to deliver such an innovative zero-emission commercial vehicle."

As of February, Volvo has sold more than 4,300 electric trucks. 

Bloomberg/Getty Images

Volta was founded in 2019 by Carl-Magnus Norden and Kjell Waloen with the mission to boost the world's transition to fully electric trucks in an effort to accelerate the fight against a fast-changing climate. 

Volta, struggling to make its way into mass production, had raised a total of $316 million from investors and said it had 5,000 pre-orders for its flagship Volta Zero electric truck. 

Related: Tesla stock jumps as key investor points to bold new market implications

Though the electric semi truck is a slightly more niche subcategory beneath the EV umbrella, it is a sector that Elon Musk's Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Free Report has been eager to get into. First announced in 2017, Tesla didn't deliver its first electric semi until December 2022; the number of deliveries remains unclear, though PepsiCo  (PEP) - Get Free Report has acquired a growing fleet of Tesla semis

As of February 2023, however, Volvo  (VOLAF) - Get Free Report said it was the leader of Europe's electric truck market, with a 32% market share. The company said at the time that it had sold more than 4,300 electric trucks across more than 38 countries. 

Get investment guidance from trusted portfolio managers without the management fees. Sign up for Action Alerts PLUS now.

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Medicine without Meds: Revolutionizing healthcare with digital solutions

Some patients with sleep disorders, back pain, diabetes, cancer, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder are benefitting from digital health interventions…

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Some patients with sleep disorders, back pain, diabetes, cancer, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder are benefitting from digital health interventions that use software programmes, often delivered through mobile apps or web-based platforms, to treat, manage, or prevent a medical condition. Designed to provide therapeutic benefits and backed by clinical evidence, these digital interventions often complement traditional healthcare approaches.

Credit: Institute for Digital Medicine, NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine

Some patients with sleep disorders, back pain, diabetes, cancer, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder are benefitting from digital health interventions that use software programmes, often delivered through mobile apps or web-based platforms, to treat, manage, or prevent a medical condition. Designed to provide therapeutic benefits and backed by clinical evidence, these digital interventions often complement traditional healthcare approaches.

“Medicine Without Meds: Transforming Patient Care With Digital Therapies” showcases this new approach, believed to be one of the most promising avenues for improving patient outcomes and the provision of healthcare on a global scale. It also provides a much-needed blueprint for accelerating digital innovation to patients.

While relatively new in the healthcare arsenal, digital therapeutics or DTx, is a new class of medicine akin to drugs. According to the book’s three authors, DTx has the potential to revolutionise patient care by improving access to healthcare, personalising treatment, and increasing convenience in achieving better health.

The book provides actionable ways of bringing digital therapy to fruition and inspiring new AI-driven innovations that could revolutionise the future of medicine. Written by researchers from the Institute for Digital Medicine (WisDM) at the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore (NUS Medicine), the book claimed the top spot on Amazon Best Sellers list, in the Health Policy category and History of Medicine category, in May 2023, after it was first made available for pre-orders.

The Institute’s director and one of the book’s three co-authors, Professor Dean Ho, said, “Our vision is to build good digital solutions that are also cost-efficient and sustainable in the long run. From the birth of an idea to its successful implementation, it is critical to engage the key stakeholders closely, including patients, clinicians and investors. The book offers a roadmap on how digital innovation can be developed and implemented effectively, to serve patients, caregivers, and those who may not be in ill health and want to get better.”

Since the team was formed in 2018, researchers have developed digital health solutions to help a patient with advanced prostate cancer who was recommended a 50% reduction in dose of an investigational inhibitor drug for increased efficacy, and subsequently resumed an active lifestyle. In a larger cohort of solid cancer patients, personalised treatment with the CURATE.AI platform saw a marked reduction of nearly 20% on average. This digital solution was widely featured at the prestigious American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting and the ASCO Educational Book. The team also leveraged DTx to address ageing and illness-related challenges in cognitive and physical performance, such as brain cancer and cognitive decline.

In one of the team’s latest DTx projects, conducted in collaboration with local technology and service providers, an application is currently undergoing validation. The app assists patients with hypertension in managing their condition by tracking body vitals, including blood pressure and heart rate, all with just a phone’s camera. Mrs Jenny Pek, 77 years old and a participant of the ongoing study, said, “My doctor has advised me to monitor my blood pressure regularly, and I can easily do that with the help of the app. It provides me useful tips and recommendations that help me keep my diabetes under control.”

Co-author Mr Yoann Sapanel, Head, Health Innovation, WisDM, NUS Medicine, said, “DTx offers a high degree of personalisation tailored to an individual’s needs and progress. They adapt to the user’s specific condition by collecting valuable data on patient progress, which not only benefits patients but also aids healthcare providers in optimising treatment plans, enabling data-driven insights and informed decision-making for the most effective personalised treatment.”

Dr Agata Blasiak, Head, Digital Health Innovation, WisDM, NUS Medicine, is the third author. She said, “DTx plays an important role for Singapore and beyond, as it can allow for decentralised delivery of healthcare at home, for certain conditions. With DTx that can remotely deliver treatment and monitor outcomes, patients need not always visit the clinics or hospitals, and the overall costs of healthcare can be reduced. DTx often works by providing rewarding interactions and nudges through mobile apps, to empower patients to understand and take charge of their condition, make lasting changes in their lifestyle and develop habits for better health and a better life.”

Published as a trade book by the Johns Hopkins University Press, the oldest continuously running University Press in the United States, the book’s foreword is written by American musician and business executive D.A. Wallach, who is passionate about technologies poised to reinvent the practice and delivery of medicine. It also features contributions and insights from various entrepreneurs, executives, patients and clinicians globally, including Associate Professor Ngiam Kee Yuan, Group Chief Technology Officer, National University Health System (NUHS) and Deputy Director of WisDM; Associate Professor Robyn Mildon from NUS Medicine’s Centre for Holistic Initiatives for Learning and Development (CHILD) and Centre for Behavioural and Implementation Science Interventions (BISI), and Founding Executive Director of the Centre for Evidence and Implementation, Australia; Dr Eddie Martucci, CEO and Co-founder of Akili Interactive Labs, United States; and Owen McCarthy, President and co-founder of MedRhythms. The cover was artfully designed with Shian Ng, an acclaimed Singapore artist.

The book is available for pre-orders at SGD $58.36 at Kinokuniya Singapore, and at USD $32.95 at all major retailers in the US, Europe, Australia, and other markets like Taiwan, Japan, and Korea—including Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books-A-Million, Hudson, Walmart, Waterstones, Books.com.tw, Book Soup, and Bookshop.org. Physical copies of the book are made available worldwide from today. All author proceeds from the sale of the books will be donated to the WisDM Patient Impact Fund, to help patients in Singapore.

More information on the book can be accessed at https://medicinewithoutmeds.tech/.


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Sustainable smart agriculture with a biodegradable soil moisture sensor

Osaka, Japan – Increasingly limited land and water resources has inspired the development of precision agriculture: use of remote sensing technology…

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Osaka, Japan – Increasingly limited land and water resources has inspired the development of precision agriculture: use of remote sensing technology to monitor air and soil environmental data in real time, to help optimize crop output. Maximizing the sustainability of such technology is critical to proper environmental stewardship and reducing costs.

Credit: 2023 Kasuga et al., Wirelessly powered sensing fertilizer for precision and sustainable agriculture. Advanced Sustainable Systems

Osaka, Japan – Increasingly limited land and water resources has inspired the development of precision agriculture: use of remote sensing technology to monitor air and soil environmental data in real time, to help optimize crop output. Maximizing the sustainability of such technology is critical to proper environmental stewardship and reducing costs.

Now, in a study recently published in Advanced Sustainable Systems, researchers from Osaka University have developed a wirelessly powered soil moisture sensing technology that is largely biodegradable and therefore can be installed in high densities. This work is an important milestone in removing the remaining technical bottlenecks in precision agriculture, such as safe disposal of used sensor devices.

With an increasing global population, it is imperative to optimize agricultural output yet minimize land and water use. Precision agriculture aims to meet these conflicting needs by using sensor networks to gather environmental information for properly allocating resources to cropland when and where these resources are needed. Drones and satellites can capture much information but are not ideal for deducing humidity and soil moisture levels. For optimum data collection, moisture sensing devices must be installed at ground level at high density. If the sensors are not biodegradable, they must be collected at the end of their service life, which can be labor-intensive, rendering them impractical. Achieving both electronic functionality and biodegradability in one technology is the goal of the present work.

“Our system comprises several sensors, a wireless power supply, and a thermal camera for acquiring and transmitting sensing and location data,” explains Takaaki Kasuga, lead author of the study. “The in-soil components are largely ecofriendly; composed of a nanopaper substrate, a natural wax protective coating, a carbon heater, and tin conductive lines.”

The basis of the technology is that the efficiency of wireless power transmission to the sensor corresponds to the temperature of the sensor’s heater and the moisture content of the surrounding soil. For example, at optimized sensor positions and angles on smooth soil, increasing the soil moisture content from 5% to 30% decreases the transmission efficiency from ~46% to ~3%. A thermal camera then captures images of the area to simultaneously collect soil moisture-content data and sensor location data. At the end of the crop season, the sensors can be tilled into the soil for biodegradation.

“We have successfully visualized areas of soil moisture deficit by using 12 sensors in a 0.4-meter by 0.6-meter demonstration field,” says Kasuga. “Thus, our system works at the high sensor densities needed for precision agriculture.”

This work has the potential to optimize precision agriculture for an increasingly resource-limited world. Maximizing the performance of the researchers’ technology under nonideal conditions (such as irregular sensor positions and angles on rough soil), and possibly for other soil environmental metrics besides soil moisture levels, might facilitate widespread adoption by the global agricultural community.

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The article, “Wirelessly powered sensing fertilizer for precision and sustainable agriculture,” was published in Advanced Sustainable Systems at DOI: 10.1002/adsu.202300314

 

About Osaka University

Osaka University was founded in 1931 as one of the seven imperial universities of Japan and is now one of Japan’s leading comprehensive universities with a broad disciplinary spectrum. This strength is coupled with a singular drive for innovation that extends throughout the scientific process, from fundamental research to the creation of applied technology with positive economic impacts. Its commitment to innovation has been recognized in Japan and around the world, being named Japan’s most innovative university in 2015 (Reuters 2015 Top 100) and one of the most innovative institutions in the world in 2017 (Innovative Universities and the Nature Index Innovation 2017). Now, Osaka University is leveraging its role as a Designated National University Corporation selected by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to contribute to innovation for human welfare, sustainable development of society, and social transformation.

Website: https://resou.osaka-u.ac.jp/en


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