Government
COVID-19 And The Soloflex Economy
COVID-19 And The Soloflex Economy
Share this:
Last week, I had an annual check-up with my cardiologist. His office happens to be located in the same building as CNBC’s world headquarters, in Englewood Cliffs, NJ – if Jim Cramer ever has ticker trouble on set, help is right downstairs.
A Coronavirus Quarantine Home Gym
My cardiologist asked if I had been exercising, and I mentioned I’d just bought a used Soloflex. The cardiologist asked if I meant a Bowflex, since he hadn’t heard of a Soloflex. In the event you haven’t either, Mental Floss published an entertaining article about the history of Soloflex recently, which noted that Bowflex was a later imitator which was sued by Soloflex’s inventor. In a nutshell though, a Soloflex is a home gym apparatus that uses rubber “weight” straps instead of iron weights.
Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
The Soloflex apparatus itself is made of heavy steel and wood, built (in America) to last: I bought mine (for $175) from a second owner in Brooklyn, who'd had it since 1990.
The Soloflex Economy
I bought the Soloflex because the gyms have been closed here for more than a month due to the COVID-19 lockdown, and it offers a decent approximation of the main barbell lifts I was doing before. My purchase decision, multiplied by millions of similar ones, suggests a challenge the economy will face after the lockdowns end: consumers' behaviors may have changed, in sticky ways. Namely, they may be more frugal, and more risk-averse, with Great Depression-levels of unemployment reinforcing both attributes. Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute wrote about the trend toward risk aversion in a recent Spectator essay.
She mentioned getting hit by a bicyclist in Central Park who had swerved in her direct to avoid being within 6 feet of an unmasked individual, as if there were high risk of contracting the virus outdoors. She's fortunate New York's parks are still open: New Jersey's have been closed, by order of our governor. But I have seen another act of extreme risk aversion she described: drivers wearing masks while alone in their cars.
For some insight into virus-induced frugality, CNBC contributor Jeff Macke pointed to revised guidance from Starbucks (SBUX) on their Chinese units.
After the government-imposed lockdowns, Starbucks expects a significant decline in China sales in the third quarter. Maybe we'll see something similar in the U.S. after our lockdowns. Maybe we'll see more Americans exercising on used Soloflexes instead of paying $60 per month to work out in gyms, and making their own protein shakes in a refurbished Vitamix instead of spending $8 on one at the gym.
The Risk Of Over-Extrapolation
Silicon Valley angel investor Balaji Srinivasan was ahead of the curve on COVID-19, warning about the impact of the novel coronavirus in January. He's still ahead of the curve, perhaps too far ahead of it. He's now predicting, among other things, esports (i.e., multiplayer video games) replacing actual sports.
My Twitter correspondent Seth Largo pointed out that if real sports survived the deadlier Spanish Flu, they'll survive this.
Ideally, we'll end up with a bit more of a Soloflex economy in the sense that we'll make more durable products here, but since one person's consumption is another's income, let's hope we don't take the frugality and risk aversion too far.
Investing Amid Uncertainty
One of the annoying cliches of advertising during this pandemic has been the phrase "In these uncertain times...". As opposed to what, the certain times that preceded this? Uncertainty is constant. If I were a thematic stock picker, I'd try to guess which companies might benefit from a post-COVID-19 world, but that seems hard (Soloflex is privately held, in case you were wondering); the closest I've come to prescience was suggesting readers hedge Coronavirus risk in mid-February.
Instead of prescience, Portfolio Armor uses two main tools to deal with uncertainty. The first is a focus on a discrete time period: the next six months. The second is hedging in the event that it's wrong. For an idea of how that has worked out, let's look the most aggressive and most conservative portfolios the system created about six months ago, and how they've done since.
The Most Aggressive Portfolio
The most aggressive portfolio created at the end of October was this one, hedged against a >30% decline.
The primary securities here were all stocks, including, most auspiciously, the gold-focused royalty company Franco-Nevada (FNV). After dollar amounts of those seven stocks were rounded down to round lots, most of the excess cash was swept into a tightly-collared position in the Direxion Daily 20 Plus Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The expected return here was 7.68%.
Here's how that portfolio has performed since.
This portfolio was up 5.27% as of Tuesday's close, underperforming its expected return of 7.68%, but outperforming the -4.76% return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the same time frame.
The Most Conservative Portfolio
The most conservative portfolio from October 31st was hedged against a >4% decline.
There weren't many stocks hedgeable against >4% declines last October. One exception was Anixter International (AXE), which had just been acquired by Wesco (WCC). That was the only stock among the primary securities in this portfolio. The rest were fixed income and precious metals ETFs, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). The expected return here was 1.88%.
Here's how that portfolio has performed since:
This one was up 9.53% as of Tuesday's close.
The post COVID-19 And The Soloflex Economy appeared first on ValueWalk.
Government
Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study
Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study
Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
People with inadequate…
Share this:
Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.
A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.
Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels
Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.
In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.
According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.
But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.
“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”
The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.
“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”
The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.
1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID
COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.
Government
Walmart joins Costco in sharing key pricing news
The massive retailers have both shared information that some retailers keep very close to the vest.
Share this:
As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters.
The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.
The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.
Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing
It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.
You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.
Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.
However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.
Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Walmart sees lower prices
McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.
During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.
"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.
He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.
"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."
McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.
"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.
Costco sees almost no inflation impact
McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco (COST) Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.
The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.
"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.
Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.
"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.
bankruptcy pandemic trumpGovernment
Walmart has really good news for shoppers (and Joe Biden)
The giant retailer joins Costco in making a statement that has political overtones, even if that’s not the intent.
Share this:
As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters.
The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.
The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.
Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing
It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.
You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.
Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.
However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.
Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Walmart sees lower prices
McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.
During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.
"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.
He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.
"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."
McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.
"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.
Costco sees almost no inflation impact
McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco (COST) Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.
The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.
"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.
Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.
"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.
bankruptcy pandemic trump
When Military Rule Supplants Democracy
The Coming Of The Police State In America
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023
Where Is R‑Star and the End of the Refi Boom: The Top 5 Posts of 2023
The Digest #187
Redefining Poverty: Towards a Transpartisan Approach
Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students
Is the United States overestimating China’s power?
Biden to call for first-time homebuyer tax credit, construction of 2 million homes
-
Uncategorized2 weeks agoAll Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
Uncategorized1 month agoCathie Wood sells a major tech stock (again)
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoCalifornia Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized2 weeks agoApparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoIndustrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
International1 day agoWalmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoRFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex
-
International2 days agoEyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire