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Could the bitcoin halving send the crypto surging higher?

Could the bitcoin halving send the crypto surging higher?

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4 years ago

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While stock markets and commodity markets like oil have experienced record falls this year, all eyes are now on a potential surge higher in cryptos. An event that is written into the rules of bitcoin's underlying code is set to take place sometime in May and has traders and investors very excited. Read on to learn more about it and the potential trading opportunities available.

The bitcoin halving - hype or hope?

Once every four years, the reward bitcoin miners receive gets cut in half. It's important because miners who process bitcoin transactions and add these 'blocks' to the cryptos underlying blockchain ledger are compensated in bitcoin. This is the only way new bitcoins enter the supply chain.

In the beginning, the reward for mining bitcoin was 50 BTC. On 28 November 2012, it fell to 25 BTC. On 9 July 2016, it fell again to 12.5 BTC. At sometime in May, a miner's reward will fall to 6.25 BTC per block they add to the blockchain ledger using their high-spec computers. The date is not exact but the halving will happen at block 630,000.

While there has been a lot of hype around this event, many are still hoping that the price of bitcoin will rise. This is because, in the law of supply and demand, if the supply of a product falls but demand stays the same, the price often increases. This is due to the fact that more people are trying to buy something that there is less of.

In the past two halvings, bitcoin's overall price saw its value rise a year before and the year after, as the image shows below:

Source: Coindesk

However, these were during much better economic times than in 2020. The impact of Covid-19 has wreaked havoc in the global economy and financial markets this year, so the backdrop to this month's halving is very different. This is where analysing the technical picture becomes more useful, as we discuss in the next section.

How to trade bitcoin

Below is the long-term, weekly price chart of Bitcoin against the US dollar (BTCUSD).

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5, BTCUSD, Weekly - Data range: from 11 July 2019 to 1 May 2020, accessed on 1 May 2020 at 8:35 pm BST. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The red vertical lines show the previous halvings. It's clear to see the volatility that has gripped bitcoin, and the rest of the cryptocurrency market, since 2018. However, the price has still managed to stay above its weekly 200-period moving average, suggesting the market may continue to go higher. This indicator is often used as a confirmation of the overall trend.

With Admiral Markets you can trade on cryptocurrency CFDs (Contracts for Difference). This means you can speculate on the price direction of a cryptocurrency like BTCUSD without owning the underlying asset. Many traders will often use this product to speculate on the price of BTCUSD on the daily chart and lower due to the historical volatility of the market.

Below is the daily chart of BTCUSD. With Admiral Markets you can also trade BTCEUR.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4, BTCUSD, Daily - Data range: from 7 December 2019 to 11 May 2020, accessed on 11 May 2020 at 12:20 pm BST. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

On the daily price chart of BTCUSD, it's clear to see the short-term bullish bias of the market. From 12 March 2020, the price has stayed above its 20-period exponential moving average, meaning that buyers are in control. This could be in anticipation of the bitcoin halving.

However, over the weekend of 9-10 May the crypto did decline suggesting that those who have been building positions in anticipation of further upside may have exited and banked their gains before the actual halving.

If further upside is due, traders may use simple price action trading patterns to help identify turning points in the market. For example, bullish pin bars are very popular bar or candle formations to identify a shift from selling to buying. The yellow boxes in the chart below show examples of them in the recent price action of BTCUSD:

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5, BTCUSD, Daily - Data range: from 21 February 2020 to 6 May 2020, accessed on 6 May 2020 at 6:35 pm BST. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

In these cases the market did indeed move higher, however this will not always be the case so risk management should be an essential component of your trading strategy or methodology. Using the last bullish pin bar on 4 May, traders may have entered above the high of the pin bar with a stop below the low of it. This would result in an entry-level of approximately 8947.90 with a stop loss of 8507.6.

Trading 1 lot with a contract size of 1 BTC, if the trade triggered the entry and then hit the stop loss, the trader would lose 440.30 USD. At 5:28 pm BST on 6 May, the price of BTCUSD was trading at 9248, resulting in a profit of 300.10 USD if the trade was closed at that time.

However, if a trader left the position open trying to capitalise on any possible future gains, the trade would have been stopped out on 10 May, losing 440.30 USD, as shown below. This is why risk management and stop losses are essential in protecting your capital!

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4, BTCUSD, Daily - Data range: from 5 March 2020 to 11 May 2020, accessed on 11 May 2020 at 12:25 pm BST. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Using the Admiral Markets Trading Calculator should be an integral part of your trading, as it helps you calculate your overall risk, profit, loss and margin requirements, among other things. If the price does start to break through the moving average, it could be a sign that sellers are taking control but we would need the crypto price to stay below this average for sometime before we are confident in confirming a downtrend. Patience will be key, how will you be trading bitcoin during the halving?

Did you know that you download the Trading Central Technical Ideas indicator completely FREE by upgrading your MetaTrader 5 trading platform to the Supreme Edition provided by Admiral Markets? This indicator provides you with actionable trading ideas and technical analysis on a wide range of asset classes. To get it free, just click on the banner below and download it today:

Download MetaTrader 5 Supreme Edition

INFORMATION ABOUT ANALYTICAL MATERIALS:

The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1.This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

2.Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets AS (Admiral Markets) shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.

3.With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.

4.The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst Jitan Solanki, Freelance Contributor (hereinafter "Author") based on personal estimations.

5.Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.

6.Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.

7.Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

Published

3 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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4 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

Published

4 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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