Connect with us

Spread & Containment

Coronavirus Lockdowns At What Price And At Whose Cost?

Coronavirus Lockdowns At What Price And At Whose Cost?

Published

on

Coronavirus Lockdown Primary Consumer Sentiment Index spirit of the PPP Communities Of Color Quarantines Imposed HCQ General Election Ballot Securities Fraud COVID secondary outbreaks Trump Ignoring Public Health Expert Coronavirus phase four coronavirus stimulus package

Covid-19 has brought economies to their knees. The question is how long and how severe the resulting recession will be. The answer depends on the quality and quantity of global stimulus packages. Social unrest is already happening in some countries.

Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Things are getting grim on the economic front for lower classes.

Coronavirus lockdowns are making no difference to flattening the Covid curve, except flattening the economy.

The Impact Of Coronavirus Lockdown On States' Revenues

In India, Economy of state governments is in dire straits. With economy in coronavirus lockdown stage with partial opening, states' revenues through all sources have gone down adversely. In such a situation, for them paying salaries of their employees and essential expenditures on healthcare to meet Covid crisis is not possible. Only way out is immediate central financial help to states and opening of lockdown to start Economic process for revenue generation. State governments in their desperation have gone whole hog for liquor sales and enhanced fuel tax.As for central government less said the better. No fiscal response in face Catestrophic situation in Indian economy. Starving migrants left to fend for themselves. Compare and contrast this with USA, UK, Japan and EU countries with fiscal stimulus in the range of 10% of GDP. Fiscal conservatism should be discarded and we should go for immediate cash transfer and food supply to needy to generate aggregate demand and open up economy systematically to have matching supply chain. We should not care for downgrading by rating agencies.

In 2020 UK will have largest decline in GDP since 1704 according to central bank. But in case depredations of Covid-19 is controlled by year end, they predict GDP growth of 15% during 2021, highest growth rate since 1704, famous Spanish war. A statistical jugglery. As for USA, situation remains grim. Highest death numbers in the world. Unemployment figure has gone upto 33.8 million out of 168 million(20%) workers. Pre-covid US unemployment figure was 3.4% only.

‪There are around 90 million deaths in the world every year and this is an all-time low per capita. If we do believe government data then the threat by covid is negligible. Even negligible is death among the affected. Without medicines. Therefore a coronavirus lockdown is meaningless. The lockdown was essential because we didn't know how the virus would react. Obesity, diabetes, and hypertension are huge risk factors for severe cases of COVID-19 and death by COVID-19. The data is pretty compelling. Now that it is evident that COVID-19 becomes a vascular disorder in those who have a more severe case of COVID-19 it is not hard to see why obesity, diabetes, and hypertension contribute so greatly to mortality.

Travel Industry Going Through A Depression

The broader economy is in recession, but the travel industry is arguably going through a depression. More than half of the people employed in it have been laid off. Japan didn’t lockdown the economy. Instead, they quarantine the infected, sometimes up to 45 days. They’ve had hundreds of deaths, not tens of thousands, and their population is about 125 million. Vietnam : They did almost everything early that we dragged our feet on - the result : Zero Covid-19 deaths and less than 400 total cases, in a poor, developing country of 97 million with high population density of 308/Sq.KM (India is 460/sq.km). They locked down only for 3 weeks and within that time got their testing and contact tracing in place to not need a longer coronavirus lockdown.

Everyone talks about waiting until a vaccine is developed but you cannot develop a vaccine without a large population who is at high risk of getting sick. In order for there to be a post-vaccine era there needs to be a pre-vaccine era where people are out getting infected in large enough numbers that there will be a significant difference in infection or severity of disease between those getting the vaccine being tested and those who have not been vaccinated. Economic growth will also depend heavily on the speed at which we can find a vaccine, manufacture it at scale and make it globally accessible. The World Health Organization initiative to ensure worldwide sharing of all Covid-19-related knowledge, data and technologies by making a pool of Covid-19 patent licences freely available to all countries is a great move in this direction. The virus can only be defeated with truly collective intelligence.

Pessimistic prognosis-We have a long way to go in COVID times. This is not ending any time sooner. In future years -Chances of repeat of " Great recession of 2008-09". Increasing deglobalization. Shifting of industries back to developed world. More automated industries in developed world leading to increased unemployment. Stagnation in workers' wage rates. Increasing inequality. Large fiscal deficits and unsustainable Debt to GDP ratios in many countries. Also expect deflationary pressure in Japan and Europe. Decline or stagnation in world trade. Constant fluctuations in fuel prices. Increasing barriers to immigration and rising xenophobia. Rise of illiberalism and strong leaders. Democracy on back foot in many countries. Rising Sino- American conflict for geo- strategic supremacy. Unsustainable cost of social security particularly pension and healthcare in developed world with aging or declining population. Expect lower economic growth rates in two stalwart economies- China and India.

The post Coronavirus Lockdowns At What Price And At Whose Cost? appeared first on ValueWalk.

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Texas A&M receives over $1 million in USDA grants to study SARS-CoV-2 in deer

Texas A&M University scientists and research partners have received two National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Agriculture and Food Research…

Published

on

Texas A&M University scientists and research partners have received two National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) grants to study the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in deer. These funds will help researchers understand the impact of the virus in Texas’ deer populations and its relationship to human and ecological health.

Credit: Sarah Hamer/Texas A&M University School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences

Texas A&M University scientists and research partners have received two National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) grants to study the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in deer. These funds will help researchers understand the impact of the virus in Texas’ deer populations and its relationship to human and ecological health.

For these projects, the research team will focus on captive deer, which are an agricultural species in Texas, including managed deer that live on large, rural properties enclosed by fences, as well as on the wild deer with which captive deer may interact and deer living in zoos and wildlife centers. 

Understanding The Ecology Of Disease

The first $800,000 USDA grant will fund a multifaceted three-year project designed to help scientists understand how the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads among deer and, for the first time, how the SARS-CoV-2 virus has impacted overall deer health.

What makes the study unique is its focus on understanding disease in the context of whole ecological systems, examining not only how captive deer interact with each other, but also how the diverse wild and captive animal community may interact with the deer. For example, the study will investigate patterns of infection among captive deer, the humans who work with the deer, other domestic livestock on the ranches, as well as wild mammals in the environment.

To do this, researchers at Texas A&M will collaborate with the Deer Research Program at the Texas A&M University-Kingsville’s (TAMUK) Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, which will help collect the large number of samples needed for the project.

“The first aim of the project is a screening study (testing the deer for SARS-CoV-2) of 30 ranches, farms, or other managed areas with deer across the state, such as safari-style parks and zoos,” said Dr. Sarah Hamer, professor of epidemiology at the Texas A&M School of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences (VMBS) and lead researcher for Texas A&M on both projects. “This stage will allow us to see where there has been deer exposure to the virus in the past and where there are active infections.”

The second stage of the project will focus on locations where coronavirus infections are found in deer.

“If we find infected deer, we will then transition to a phase of the study where we can not only re-sample the deer over time to monitor changes in their infection and health, but also sample other farm animals and native wildlife on each property. We will also sample the people on each ranch who regularly interact with the deer,” Hamer explained. “These will most likely be the workers who are responsible for putting out the feed and water for the animals.”

This broader range of samples will help Hamer and the rest of the team learn more about the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus between animals and people that share an ecological relationship. Their approach to consider humans, animals, and the environment was proposed after Hamer’s teams spent more than two years studying the virus among people and their pet dogs and cats in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded research; that research showed that infections were not uncommon among domestic animals that live in houses with active human cases.

The laboratory analyses for the deer project will be overseen by Dr. Gabriel Hamer, professor in the Texas A&M Department of Entomology. 

“Once we detect positive samples for SARS-CoV-2, we will work with partners to sequence the viral genomes across all of the infected species and see how they compare,” he said. “We want to see if we can infer which direction the infection is spreading among deer, other animals, and humans.”

The final part of the three-year project will analyze how overall deer health has been impacted by the virus. 

“Of all four goals, this one is probably the most important for the deer producers,” said Dr. Walt Cook, a clinical associate professor in the VMBS’ Department of Veterinary Pathobiology and co-investigator on the project. “We want to know if SARS-CoV-2 might affect things like body condition, antler growth, and reproduction.” 

The robust captive cervid industry in Texas makes this an ideal state for better understanding how and when the virus infects deer. In comparison to tracking wild deer, the opportunity to study deer belonging to managed herds will allow researchers to answer many of the unknown questions about SARS-CoV-2 and deer health. 

“Most of the existing studies on wild deer rely on hunter-harvested samples,” Sarah Hamer said. “A deer may test positive for a SARS-CoV-2 infection, but at that point, the body has been processed and we can’t know its symptoms or if the virus impacted the deer’s health or fitness in any way.”

“We’re extremely appreciative that producers across the state are allowing us to study their herds so that we can better understand how SARS-CoV-2 is maintained in nature,” Cook said. “We have the opportunity to study the ecology of the disease in real settings across the state to learn about what these animals may be exposed to, while maintaining anonymity (with no information regarding specific test results, locations of properties, or premise ownership being released publicly or to any agency), to benefit us all in the future.”

Because of the project’s unique scope and complexity, the researchers hope to answer questions relating SARS-CoV-2 to many different aspects of human, animal, and environmental health.

“For the last three years, zoonotic disease has brought the world to a halt and impacted virtually every aspect of life on earth,” said Dr. Michael Cherry, a white-tailed deer expert at TAMUK and partner on the projects. “Understanding the ecology of these diseases and how they affect human health, food security, and important sectors of the economy will make us better prepared for future zoonotic outbreaks.”

“The diverse team is one of the unique aspects of this ambitious project,” Cherry said. “Dr. Hamer has pulled together a fantastic team, and I’m happy to be able to contribute.”

Protecting Against Future Outbreaks

The second project, funded by a $650,000 USDA grant and spearheaded by biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks, will include sequencing the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 found in white-tailed deer to better understand which strains are active in deer populations and to track possible mutations so that we can better protect ourselves from future outbreaks of the virus in the human population. 

“Zoonotic research like this is key to helping make informed decisions and avoid future outbreaks,” said Matt McKnight, general manager of biosecurity at Ginkgo Bioworks. “This data and research will provide governments, industry leaders, and academics the information they need to optimize behaviors and provide early warnings to prevent disease spillover.”

The first part of the project entails sampling and testing deer to see if they carry SARS-CoV-2. Once the researchers have the positive samples, they can begin sequencing genomes from the virus samples.

“Our group at Texas A&M will be responsible for working with collaborators to collect samples from deer,” Hamer said. “We’ll also be responsible for the initial screening for SARS-CoV-2. If we find positive samples, we ship them to Ginkgo and they’ll work to sequence the virus and analyze how the sequences compare to those found by others.”

In order to reach the sample size goals for the project, the researchers also are collaborating with the Texas A&M Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratory (TVMDL) to gather samples from deer lymph nodes.

“TVMDL regularly gets samples from both wild and captive deer for chronic wasting disease (CWD) testing,” said Carlos Rodriguez, TVMDL epidemiologist. “The samples often come from hunter-harvested deer, and we are able to repurpose the remaining tissue to contribute to this COVID project.”

Because COVID-19 is resurgent in the human population, projects like this one are important given that scientists are still uncovering new ways that the disease continues to impact the world.

“The public health protective measures that are available for humans — like vaccines and masks — really aren’t options for deer,” Hamer said. “We’re interested to learn under what conditions deer become infected and how long they can maintain the infection in nature. Of course, we’re also interested to study potential onward transmission from deer to other deer, wildlife, or humans in order to learn how that may contribute to the overall ecology of this virus in nature.”

By Courtney Price, Texas A&M University School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences

###


Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology scientists develop deep learning-based biosensing platform to count viral particles better

Rapid and on-site diagnostic technologies for identifying and quantifying viruses are essential for planning treatment strategies for infected patients…

Published

on

Rapid and on-site diagnostic technologies for identifying and quantifying viruses are essential for planning treatment strategies for infected patients and preventing further spread of the infection. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for accurate yet decentralized diagnostic tests that do not involve complex and time-consuming processes needed for conventional laboratory-based tests.

Credit: Professor Young Min Song from GIST, Korea

Rapid and on-site diagnostic technologies for identifying and quantifying viruses are essential for planning treatment strategies for infected patients and preventing further spread of the infection. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for accurate yet decentralized diagnostic tests that do not involve complex and time-consuming processes needed for conventional laboratory-based tests.

A popular point-of-care diagnostic tool for quantifying viral loads is bright-field microscopic imaging. However, the small size (~ 100 nm) and low refractive index (~ 1.5, same as that of a microscope slide) of bioparticles such as viruses often makes their accurate estimation difficult and increases the limit of detection (the lowest concentration of viral load that can be reliably detected). Recent studies have found that Gires-Tournois (GT) biosensors, a type of nanophotonic resonators, can detect minuscule virus particles and produce colorful micrographs (images taken through a microscope) of viral loads. But they suffer from visual artifacts and non-reproducibility, limiting their utilization.

In a recent breakthrough, an international team of researchers, led by Professor Young Min Song from the School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology in Korea, has leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) to overcome this problem. Their work was made available online on August 24, 2023 and will be published in Volume 52 of the journal Nano Today in October 01, 2023.

The team proposed a synergistic biosensing tool called “DeepGT,” which can harness the advantages of GT sensing platforms and merge them with deep learning-based algorithms to accurately quantify nanoscale bioparticles, including viruses, without the need for complex sample preparation methods.

We designed DeepGT to objectively assess the severity of an infection or disease. This means that we will no longer have to rely solely on subjective assessments for diagnosis and healthcare but will instead have a more accurate and data-driven approach to guide therapeutic strategies,” explains Prof. Song, revealing the motivation behind their study.

The team designed a GT biosensor with a trilayered thin-film configuration and biofunctionalized it to enable colorimetric sensing upon interaction with target analytes. The sensing abilities were verified by simulating the binding mechanism between host cells and the virus using specially prepared bioparticles that mimicked SARS-CoV-2—the coronavirus strain that caused the COVID-19 pandemic.

Next, the researchers trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) using over a thousand optical and scanning electron micrographs of the GT biosensor surface with different types of nanoparticles. They found that DeepGT was able to refine visual artifacts associated with bright-field microscopy and extract relevant information, even at viral concentrations as low as 138 pg ml–1. Moreover, it determined the bioparticle count with a high accuracy, characterized by a mean absolute error of 2.37 across 1,596 images compared to 13.47 for rule-based algorithms, in under a second. Boosted by the performance of CNNs, the biosensing system can also indicate the severity of the infection from asymptomatic to severe based on the viral load.

DeepGT thus presents an efficient and precise way of screening viruses across a broad size range without being hindered by the minimum diffraction limit in visible light. “Our approach provides a practical solution for the swift detection and management of emerging viral threats as well as the improvement of public health preparedness by potentially reducing the overall burden of costs associated with diagnostics,” concludes Prof. Song.

We too hope that this study will enable new AI-powered healthcare technologies that will improve the quality of life of patients across the globe!

 

***

 

Reference

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nantod.2023.101968

 

About the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST)

The Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) was founded in 1993 by the Korean government as a research-oriented graduate school to help ensure Korea’s continued economic growth and prosperity by developing advanced science and technology with an emphasis on collaboration with the international community. Since that time, GIST has pioneered a highly regarded undergraduate science curriculum in 2010 that has become a model for other science universities in Korea. To learn more about GIST and its exciting opportunities for researchers and students alike, please visit: http://www.gist.ac.kr/.

 

About the Author

Young Min Song is a distinguished professor at the School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST). His research interests encompass advanced optoelectronic sensors, multifunctional nanophotonics, and semiconductor devices. He has published more than 150 peer-reviewed research articles, including contributions to prestigious journals such as Nature, Science, and Nature Electronics. His extensive impact is reflected in his Google Scholar profile, which boasts over 10,000 citations and an h-index of 40. He is also an active editorial board member for several respected journals, including IEEE Photonics Journal and Electronics (MDPI), Micromachines (MDPI), and IJPEM (Springer).


Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Treasuries Pain Can Get Much Worse, Term Premium Dynamics Show

Treasuries Pain Can Get Much Worse, Term Premium Dynamics Show

By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Treasuries’…

Published

on

Treasuries Pain Can Get Much Worse, Term Premium Dynamics Show

By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Treasuries’ recent slump owed plenty to the return of the so-called term premium as investors became more concerned about the risks of holding longer-dated debt. Even as US bonds get some help from geopolitical uncertainty, there’s plenty of scope for yields to march considerably higher on the same dynamics that helped drive September’s spike.
 
For one thing there’s little chance that the supply outlook is going to improve noticeably, no matter how the Middle East conflict and the US House speaker situation are resolved. For another, an examination of the relative yields for Australian and US debt signals there’s potential that US term premiums have further to go to.

Australia’s 10-year term premium has tended to align closely with the US gauge, but it’s been going through a relatively rare period since the pandemic with the two diverging. At first, it was the US term premium that swelled, perhaps representing the impact of extreme QE or lingering liquidity concerns after Treasuries froze as the pandemic broke out. That script flipped from early 2022 as the Fed started what would prove to be a far more aggressive hiking cycle than the RBA.

Still, as inflation slows in both economies and traders anticipate and end to rate hikes, that term premium gap closed dramatically even as September’s selloff drove steep losses for both Treasuries and Aussie bonds. Term premiums are tough enough to measure, let alone predict, but there’s a case to be made that one potential guide for the way for this to develop would be for the US term premium to close much of the remaining spread to Australia, which stood at about 60bps at the end of last month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/17/2023 - 07:45

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending