Coronavirus dashboard for May 4: Keep the faith; vaccinations work!
– by New Deal democratWhile there has been some renewed DOOOMishness in the press about whether the US will ever reach “herd immunity” or not, I remain more sanguine.Here’s the overall picture of cases and deaths from the past 12 weeks (not…
While there has been some renewed DOOOMishness in the press about whether the US will ever reach “herd immunity” or not, I remain more sanguine.
Here’s the overall picture of cases and deaths from the past 12 weeks (note: the wintertime peaks no longer show in this close-up):
The incipient “4th wave” has already receded, and deaths have continued to very slowly decline. Both cases and deaths are now 80% below their peaks.
Both cases and deaths have also all but vanished among the heavily vaccinated senior citizens:
COVID is now, relatively speaking, a young person’s disease. The one item of real concern is the decided increase in cases among those aged 14-17, suggesting that reopening schools in the face of new variants that transmit much more easily and are more infectious to young people was a terrible mistake. Hopefully approval of the vaccines for teenagers, apparently to happen shortly, together with summer vacation, will take care of this issue before fall classes begin.
As a percentage of the total population, people partially and fully vaccinated continue to increase:
This probably had much to do with the fizzling of the “4th wave.”
Keep in mind that we *know* that 10% of the US population has had *confirmed* COVID infections. Estimates of how high the true number of infections is, run as high as 33% of the entire population. If this group is randomly distributed between those vaccinated and those not vaccinated, then the total % of the US population with resistance to COVID is probably about 2/3’s - in short, getting pretty close to the threshold where “herd immunity” might come into play.
In other words, if a relatively small percentage of vaccine “resistors” change their minds (and there is evidence for some of that happening), and the disease continues to spread for a short while among the unvaccinated, those two occurrences alone might push us over the “herd immunity” threshold in several months.