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Contrarian Take: Covid Vaccine & the End of Anti-Vaxxers

    The modern Anti-Vaxxer movement of recent years traces its origins to a paper published in The Lancet in 1998 by (then Dr.) Andrew Wakefield linking 12 children who developed autism soon after vaccine administration. We later learn that Wakefield…

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The modern Anti-Vaxxer movement of recent years traces its origins to a paper published in The Lancet in 1998 by (then Dr.) Andrew Wakefield linking 12 children who developed autism soon after vaccine administration. We later learn that Wakefield was funded by litigants against vaccine manufacturers, a detail he failed to disclose.

The paper was formally retracted by 10 of Wakefield‘s 12 coauthors; Worse still, in 2009 we learned in The Sunday Times that Wakefield had manipulated patient data and misreported results, falsely creating an appearance of a link with autism. In 2010 The Lancet’s editors fully retracted the paper. Wakefield was barred from practicing medicine in the UK.

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In 2020, surveys by the Pew Research Center suggest that only than 60% of Americans say they will get a COVID-19 vaccine.

I have different take: I expect that number to be even higher, greater than 90%; further, I expect the Covid vaccines will be the beginning of the end of Anti-Vaxxer movement. War game a few scenarios out, considering social, legal liability and health care issues, and you see why this contrarian take is a very possible.

Begin with the development of this vaccine, and how different it was then normal. A huge financial incentive always surrounds the pharmaceutical and biotech companies working on developing cures, treatments, and vaccines for a variety of diseases. This incentive is why so much secrecy surrounds research, the strategies used, the specific methodologies under development, even diseases under of investigation. With billions of dollars at stake, companies have every incentive to keep their developments secret, saying as little as possible in public and therefor your competitors.

The speed, dollars and demand thrown at this changed that dynamic. Partnerships were struck between companies, and so secrecy was compromised. Government dollars meant full disclosures, data releases, and regular updates were demanded. This is very different than what passes for normal in the sector. It may not be perfect but is vastly more transparent than what occurs in other vaccine development trials.

Next, consider some social institutions that will be weighing in on this: Its clear from the early discussions of re-opening schools that the Teachers Unions were not happy with various state, town and city plans. Without liability protections for schools and administrators, they will manage to the most conservative risk posture. Imagine this litigation choice: Being sued by a family of someone whose Covid19 death is traced to the school, or being sued by someone who demands on sending their kid to school unvaccinated. It is a no-brainer as which case you would rather defend against.

So Public schools will likely insist that if you want to enroll your child, they must be vaccinated. Once that occurs, Private schools and non-union districts are likely to follow suit.

Next, consider large businesses: Airlines are exploring health passports, while some have already said proof of Covid vaccine will be required to book flights. Ticketmaster is requiring similar proof to attend live events.

Same with offices: barring any state laws offering exemptions, why would landlords want the liability? I can forsee new leases including a mandatory Covid vaccination clause. My partners and I manage a firm with about ~35 employees; do we want to take a risk that one of our employees gives another Covid? Making vaccinations mandatory is going to be policy at a lot of firms regardless of size.

But here is the next level: Once the world sees that the vaccines were safe and effective and are helping life return to normal, it will be increasingly difficult for the Anti-Vaxxers to keep making their claims.

Call it a pandemic bonus: The flat-earthers who keep pushing a discredited theory will get pushed further and further out to the fringe.

 

 

The post Contrarian Take: Covid Vaccine & the End of Anti-Vaxxers appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Tesla rival Polestar reveals production plans for electric SUV

The Sweden-based electric vehicle maker completes key testing before launching production of its new SUV.

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Tesla's Model Y crossover, the best-selling vehicle globally, is the standard that electric vehicle makers strive to compete with. The Austin, Texas, automaker sold about 267,200 Model Y vehicles in the first three months of the year and continued leading the pack well into the second quarter.

It's no wonder that the Model Y is leading all vehicles in sales as it retails for about $39,390 after tax credits and estimated gas savings. Ford  (F) - Get Free Report hopes to compete with the Model Y about a year from now when it rolls out the new Ford Explorer SUV that is expected to start at $49,150.

Related: Honda unveils surprising electric vehicles to compete with Tesla

Plenty of competition in electric SUV space

Mercedes-Benz (MBG) however, has a Tesla rival model with its EQB all-electric compact sports utility vehicle with an estimated 245 mile range on a charge with 70.5 kWh battery capacity, 0-60 mph acceleration in 8 seconds and the lowest price of its EVs at a $52,750 manufacturers suggested retail price.

Tesla's Model X SUV has a starting price of about $88,490, while the Model X full-size SUV starts at $98,490 with a range of 348 miles. BMW's  (BMWYY) - Get Free Report xDrive50 SUV has a starting price of about $87,000, a range up to 311 miles and accelerates 0-60 miles per hour in 4.4 seconds.

Polestar  (PSNY) - Get Free Report plans to have a lineup of five EVs by 2026. The latest model that will begin production in the first quarter of 2024 is the Polestar 3 electric SUV, which is completing its development. The vehicle just finished two weeks of testing in extreme hot weather of up to 122 degrees in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to fine tune its climate system. The testing was completed in urban cities and the deserts around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“The Polestar 3 development and testing program is progressing well, and I expect production to start in Q1 2024. Polestar 3 is at the start of its journey and customers can now visit our retail locations around the world to see its great proportions and sit in its exclusive and innovative interior,” Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath said in a statement.

Polestar 3 prototype is set for production in the first quarter of 2024.

Polestar

Polestar plans 4 new electric vehicles

Polestar 3, which will compete with Tesla's Model X, Model Y, BMW's iX xDrive50 and Mercedes-Benz, has a starting manufacturer's suggested retail price of $83,000, a range up to 300 miles and a charging time of 30 minutes. The company has further plans for the Polestar 4, an SUV coupé that will launch in phases in late 2023 and 2024, as well as a Polestar 5 electric four-door GT and a Polestar 6 electric roadster that the company says "are coming soon." 

The Swedish automaker's lone all-electric model on the market today is the Polestar 2 fastback, which has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $49,900, a range up to 320 miles and a charging time of 28 minutes. The vehicle accelerates from 0-60 miles per hour in 4.1 seconds. Polestar 2 was unveiled in 2019 and delivered in Europe in July 2020 and the U.S. in December 2020.

Polestar 1, the company's first vehicle, was a plug-in hybrid that went into production in 2019 and was discontinued in late 2021, according to the Polestar website.

The Gothenburg, Sweden, company was established in 1996 and was sold to Geely affiliate Volvo in 2015.

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Polestar plans production date for its Tesla rival electric SUV

The Sweden-based electric vehicle maker completes key testing before launching production of its new SUV.

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Tesla's Model Y crossover, the best-selling vehicle globally, is the standard that electric vehicle makers strive to compete with. The Austin, Texas, automaker sold about 267,200 Model Y vehicles in the first three months of the year and continued leading the pack well into the second quarter.

It's no wonder that the Model Y is leading all vehicles in sales as it retails for about $39,390 after tax credits and estimated gas savings. Ford  (F) - Get Free Report hopes to compete with the Model Y about a year from now when it rolls out the new Ford Explorer SUV that is expected to start at $49,150.

Related: Honda unveils surprising electric vehicles to compete with Tesla

Plenty of competition in electric SUV space

Mercedes-Benz (MBG) however, has a Tesla rival model with its EQB all-electric compact sports utility vehicle with an estimated 245 mile range on a charge with 70.5 kWh battery capacity, 0-60 mph acceleration in 8 seconds and the lowest price of its EVs at a $52,750 manufacturers suggested retail price.

Tesla's Model X SUV has a starting price of about $88,490, while the Model X full-size SUV starts at $98,490 with a range of 348 miles. BMW's  (BMWYY) - Get Free Report xDrive50 SUV has a starting price of about $87,000, a range up to 311 miles and accelerates 0-60 miles per hour in 4.4 seconds.

Polestar  (PSNY) - Get Free Report plans to have a lineup of five EVs by 2026. The latest model that will begin production in the first quarter of 2024 is the Polestar 3 electric SUV, which is completing its development. The vehicle just finished two weeks of testing in extreme hot weather of up to 122 degrees in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to fine tune its climate system. The testing was completed in urban cities and the deserts around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“The Polestar 3 development and testing program is progressing well, and I expect production to start in Q1 2024. Polestar 3 is at the start of its journey and customers can now visit our retail locations around the world to see its great proportions and sit in its exclusive and innovative interior,” Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath said in a statement.

Polestar 3 prototype is set for production in the first quarter of 2024.

Polestar

Polestar plans 4 new electric vehicles

Polestar 3, which will compete with Tesla's Model X, Model Y, BMW's iX xDrive50 and Mercedes-Benz, has a starting manufacturer's suggested retail price of $83,000, a range up to 300 miles and a charging time of 30 minutes. The company has further plans for the Polestar 4, an SUV coupé that will launch in phases in late 2023 and 2024, as well as a Polestar 5 electric four-door GT and a Polestar 6 electric roadster that the company says "are coming soon." 

The Swedish automaker's lone all-electric model on the market today is the Polestar 2 fastback, which has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $49,900, a range up to 320 miles and a charging time of 28 minutes. The vehicle accelerates from 0-60 miles per hour in 4.1 seconds. Polestar 2 was unveiled in 2019 and delivered in Europe in July 2020 and the U.S. in December 2020.

Polestar 1, the company's first vehicle, was a plug-in hybrid that went into production in 2019 and was discontinued in late 2021, according to the Polestar website.

The Gothenburg, Sweden, company was established in 1996 and was sold to Geely affiliate Volvo in 2015.

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Why are killer whales harassing and killing porpoises without eating them?

For decades, fish-eating killer whales in the Pacific Northwest have been observed harassing and even killing porpoises without consuming them—a perplexing…

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For decades, fish-eating killer whales in the Pacific Northwest have been observed harassing and even killing porpoises without consuming them—a perplexing behavior that has long intrigued scientists.

Credit: Wild Orca

For decades, fish-eating killer whales in the Pacific Northwest have been observed harassing and even killing porpoises without consuming them—a perplexing behavior that has long intrigued scientists.

A study published today in Marine Mammal Science, co-led by Deborah Giles of Wild Orca and Sarah Teman of the SeaDoc Society, a program of the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, looked at more than 60 years of recorded interactions between Southern Resident killer whales and porpoises in the Salish Sea to better understand why they exhibit this behavior.

Southern Resident killer whales are an endangered population, numbering only 75 individuals. Their survival is intimately tied to the fortunes of Chinook salmon — also an endangered species. Without enough Chinook salmon, these whales are in danger of extinction.

“I am frequently asked, why don’t the Southern Residents just eat seals or porpoises instead?” said Giles. “It’s because fish-eating killer whales have a completely different ecology and culture from orcas that eat marine mammals — even though the two populations live in the same waters. So we must conclude that their interactions with porpoises serve a different purpose, but this purpose has only been speculation until now.”

Three plausible explanations

While scientists have recorded instances of Southern Resident killer whales engaging in porpoise harassment as early as 1962, reasons for this behavior have long remained a mystery. Giles, Teman, and a team of collaborators analyzed 78 documented incidents of porpoise harassment from 1962 to 2020. The study suggests three plausible explanations:

  • Social play: Porpoise harassment may be a form of social play for killer whales. Like many intelligent species, these whales sometimes engage in playful activities to bond, communicate, or simply enjoy themselves. This behavior might benefit group coordination and teamwork.
  • Hunting practice: Another hypothesis suggests that porpoise harassment might hone their salmon-hunting skills. Southern Resident killer whales could view porpoises as moving targets to practice their hunting techniques, even if they do not intend to consume them.
  • Mismothering behavior: This theory suggests that the whales may be attempting to provide care for porpoises they perceive as weaker or ill–a manifestation of their natural inclination to assist others in their group. Females have been witnessed carrying their deceased calves and have been seen similarly carrying porpoises.

“Mismothering behavior — also known as ‘displaced epimeletic behavior’ to scientists— might be due to their limited opportunities to care for young,” Giles explained. “Our research has shown that due to malnutrition, nearly 70% of Southern Resident killer whale pregnancies have resulted in miscarriages or calves that died right away after birth.”

Salmon specialists

Despite these intriguing insights, Giles, Teman, and their collaborators acknowledge that the exact reason behind porpoise harassment may never be fully understood. What is clear, however, is that porpoises are not a part of the Southern Resident killer whale diet. Southern Resident killer whale diets are highly specialized for salmon, making the idea of eating porpoises highly unlikely.

“Killer whales are incredibly complex and intelligent animals. We found that porpoise-harassing behavior has been passed on through generations and across social groupings. It’s an amazing example of killer whale culture,” Teman says. “Still, we don’t expect the Southern Resident killer whales to start eating porpoises. The culture of eating salmon is deeply ingrained in Southern Resident society. These whales need healthy salmon populations to survive.”

This research underscores the importance of conserving salmon populations in the Salish Sea and throughout the whales’ entire range. Maintaining an adequate supply of salmon is vital for the survival and well-being of Southern Resident killer whales and the overall health of the Salish Sea ecosystem.

Affinity for play

This study comes at a time when a separate population of killer whales on the Iberian Peninsula has drawn international headlines for interacting with, and on three occasions, sinking boats off the coast of Portugal and Spain. Ultimately, the Southern Resident killer whales and the Iberian Peninsula orcas are two different populations with distinct cultures. One thing the two might have in common is their affinity for play behavior.

The study was funded by Wild Orca and SeaDoc Society. Additional partners include the University of Exeter, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Orca Behavior Institute, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Cascadia Research, The Whale Museum, Center for Whale Research, Ocean Research College Academy (ORCA) at Everett Community College, Bay Cetology, North Gulf Oceanic Society, George Mason University, and Marine-Med.


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