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Contrarian Investing Definition and Strategy

Contrarian investing bears some similarities to value investing, but the two aren’t exactly the same. Let’s take a closer look at this strategy.
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Investing can be tricky. Investors sometimes overreact to the slightest whiff of bad news about a company. Other times, they rush to jump on the latest investing trend, pumping up a company’s share price. Contrarian investing looks to do the opposite. 

Certain metrics, such as profit margin and P/E ratio, can give us clues as to which companies are outperforming the competition. Still, there are a lot of unknowns. No one could have predicted the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact it would have on the markets.

But even the human element of investing decisions can be irrational at times. 

When contrarian investors see other investors jumping to conclusions, they do the opposite. Oftentimes, that involves buying stock in companies trading below their intrinsic value after a market trend or news story caused a drop in price.

Thus, contrarian investing bears some similarities to value investing. But the two aren’t exactly the same. While contrarian investing has its limitations, it can be a lucrative strategy. And many investors have made millions with it.

What is the Contrarian Investing Strategy?

Contrarian investors intentionally go against market trends. They do this by buying stocks when they are down and selling stocks when they become overheated. Contrarian investing can be applied to sectors and markets as well. The idea is that herd behavior can cause large numbers of investors to make similar decisions. For example, investing in “hot” stocks. They may do this even if some of those stocks are overvalued.

Contrarian investing is not a short-term strategy, like you might see with day trading. Instead, contrarian investors buy and hold stock in companies or industries that align with their strategy. They are investing in stocks most investors wouldn’t consider. And because of this, it could be months or even years before the stocks they are buying reach their perceived value.

Contrarian Investing vs. Value Investing

As mentioned, contrarian investing and value investing bear some similarities. In fact, some believe there is no difference between the two. Although, there are some things contrarian investors do that value investors probably wouldn’t.

Where the two are similar is the tendency to invest in undervalued assets. Both investors will look for assets that are trading lower than their intrinsic value.

However, value investors lean primarily on metrics such as book value and P/E ratio, looking for assets that are trading at a discount simply by the numbers. Contrarian investors, on the other hand, pay more attention to investor sentiment. They may choose to buy an asset despite an overall bearish sentiment around it.

Pros and Cons

Contrarian investing has allowed some investors to make sizable profits by going against the grain. But like any strategy, they have their own set of pros and cons.

Contrarian investing pros:

  • Contrarian investors often buy stocks in dependable industries that are trading lower at the moment, such as banking or real estate. By looking for discounts in these industries, they stand to gain a lot in the long term.
  • Investing in assets that are trading below their intrinsic value allows contrarian investors to minimize potential losses.

Contrarian investing cons:

  • Because contrarian investing requires going against the grain, it could be years in some cases before these investments produce the desired return.
  • Finding worthy investments as a contrarian investor can take extensive research.
  • Simply doing the opposite of what “everyone else” is doing is not a winning strategy on its own.

Examples

There are many examples of contrarian investors, and some of them have become quite famous. Let’s take a look at a couple of notable examples.

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett is a contrarian investor. In fact, he might be the most famous contrarian investor of all time. Some call him a value investor. However, Buffett can be considered a contrarian investor because he does what he wants instead of following market trends.

For instance, by late 2021, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had nearly $150 billion in cash on hand. The reason? Simply because Buffett couldn’t find enough deals to justify putting all of his money to work. Conventional wisdom says investors should never have that much cash. Even if it means investing in a less desirable asset. But Warren Buffett won’t invest unless his high standards are met.

Michael Burry

We often think about contrarian investors buying undervalued assets, and in many cases, that is true. However, Michael Burry became famous when he decided to short the housing market just before the Great Recession. Everyone was investing in mortgage-backed securities and other assets. But Burry was determined the market was overheated and bet big on it. He turned out the be right. And this resulted in hundreds of millions in profits for both himself and his hedge fund, Scion Capital.

Does Contrarian Investing Work?

Contrarian investing can certainly work. And it has worked quite well for many investors in the past several decades. However, it can also be very risky. Meaning it’s best left for those with deep pockets. As they say, if it were that easy, everyone would be doing it.

Consider the Michael Burry example. Burry turned out to be right and made $100 million for himself in the process. But at the time, there were likely many doubters. The market kept going up and seemed like that would continue forever. Thus, in addition to determining the market was overheated, Burry also had to short the market at just the right time. It’s easy to imagine a scenario in which he waited too long, foiling the entire strategy.

Thus, contrarian investing can work, but it can also be risky. Plus, those buying undervalued assets sometimes have to wait years for them to increase in value. For investors that can afford to sustain losses for long periods of time. Contrarian investing can work. For most investors, though, it may be too risky to be worth pursuing.

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SEC initiates legal action against FTX’s auditor

The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor…

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The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor independence.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has commenced legal proceedings against an accounting firm that had provided services to cryptocurrency exchange FTX before its bankruptcy declaration.

According to a Sept. 29 statement, the SEC alleged that accounting firm Prager Metis provided auditing services to its clients without maintaining the necessary independence as it continued to offer accounting services. This practice is prohibited under the auditor independence framework.

Extract from the SEC's September 29 statement. Source: SEC

To prevent conflicts of interest, accounting and audit tasks must be kept clearly separate. However, the SEC claims that these entwined activities spanned over a period of approximately three years:

“As alleged in our complaint, over a period of nearly three years, Prager’s audits, reviews, and exams fell short of these fundamental principles. Our complaint is an important reminder that auditor independence is crucial to investor protection.”

While the statement doesn't explicitly mention FTX or any other clients, it does emphasize that there were allegedly "hundreds" of auditor independence violations throughout the three-year period.

Furthermore, a previous court filing pointed out that the FTX Group engaged Metis to audit FTX US and FTX at some point in 2021. Subsequently, FTX declared bankruptcy in November 2022. 

The filing alleged that since former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried publicly announced previous FTX audit results, Metis should have recognized that its work would be used by FTX to bolster public trust.

Related: FTX founder’s plea for temporary release should be denied, prosecution says

Concerns were previously reported about the material presented in FTX audit reports.

On Jan. 25, current FTX CEO John J. Ray III told a bankruptcy court that he had “substantial concerns as to the information presented in these audited financial statements.”

Furthermore, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ron Wyden raised concerns about Prager Metis' impartiality. They argued that it functioned as an advocate for the crypto industry.

Meanwhile, a law firm that provided services to FTX has come under scrutiny in recent times.

In a Sept. 21 court filing, plaintiffs allege that U.S. based law firm, Fenwick & West, should be held partially liable for FTX's collapse because it reportedly exceeded the norm when it came to its service offerings to the exchange.

However, Fenwick & West asserts that it cannot be held accountable for a client's misconduct as long as its actions remain within the bounds of the client's representation.

Magazine: Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

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DOJ readies witnesses in Bankman-Fried trial, highlights FTX asset management

The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX.
The Department…

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The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has confirmed its intention to summon former FTX clients, investors and staff as witnesses in the upcoming trial involving Sam Bankman-Fried, the former FTX CEO.

The DOJ submitted a letter motion in limine on Sept. 30 describing the witnesses it intends to call concerning FTX’s treatment of customer assets.

The testimonies intend to provide perspectives on the interactions between the accused and the witnesses. It also aims to get the witnesses’ understanding of Bankman-Fried’s remarks and conduct, particularly regarding FTX’s asset management. The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX, believing that the platform would safeguard them securely.

Court filing in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York. Source: CourtListener

Furthermore, a situation has emerged concerning one of the DOJ’s witnesses, “FTX Customer-1,” who resides in Ukraine. Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, traveling to the U.S. to provide testimony is associated with difficulties. The DOJ has suggested using video conferencing as a viable alternative. However, Bankman-Fried’s defense has not yet approved this proposal.

Nonetheless, the legal team representing Bankman-Fried, led by lawyer Mark Cohen, has voiced concerns about the jury questions put forth by the DOJ. According to Bankman-Fried’s defense, these interrogations insinuate guilt on Bankman-Fried’s part, potentially undermining the principle of “innocent until proven guilty.“

Additionally, the defense contends that these inquiries may not effectively uncover the jurors’ inherent biases, especially related to their encounters with cryptocurrencies. Moreover, specific questions could inadvertently guide the jury’s perspective instead of eliciting authentic insights, possibly compromising the trial’s impartiality.

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer challenges US gov’t proposed jury questions

With the jury selection scheduled to start on Oct. 3, closely followed by the trial, the spotlight is firmly on this high-stakes legal confrontation. This case underscores not only its immediate consequences but also underscores the vital importance of transparent communication and unbiased questioning in upholding the principles of justice.

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

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Vitalik Buterin voices concerns over DAOs approving ETH staking pool operators

The Ethereum co-founder proposes a solution that could lower the likelihood of any individual liquid staking provider growing to a point where it poses…

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The Ethereum co-founder proposes a solution that could lower the likelihood of any individual liquid staking provider growing to a point where it poses a systemic risk.

Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, has expressed worries regarding decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) exerting a monopoly over the selection of node operators in liquidity staking pools.

In a September 30 blog post, Buterin issues a warning that as staking pools adopt the DAO approach for governance over node operators—who are ultimately responsible for the pool's funds—it can expose them to potential risks from malicious actors.

“With the DAO approach, if a single such staking token dominates, that leads to a single, potentially attackable governance gadget controlling a very large portion of all Ethereum validators.”

Buterin highlights the liquid staking provider Lido (LDO) as an example with a DAO that validates node operators. However, he emphasizes that relying on just one layer of protection may prove insufficient:

“To the credit of protocols like Lido, they have implemented safeguards against this, but one layer of defense may not be enough,” he noted.

ETH staked by category chart. Source: Vitalik Buterin

Meanwhile, he explains that Rocket Pool offers the opportunity for anyone to become a node operator by placing an 8 Ether (ETH) deposit, which, at the time of this publication, is equivalent to approximately $13,406.

However, he notes this comes with its risks. "The Rocket Pool approach allows attackers to 51% attack the network, and force users to pay most of the costs," he stated.

On the other hand, Buterin highlights that having a mechanism to ascertain who can act as the underlying node operators is an inevitable necessity:

"It can't be unrestricted, because then attackers would join and amplify their attacks with users' funds."

Related: Ethereum is about to get crushed by liquid staking tokens

Buterin further outlines that a possible approach to address this issue involves encouraging ecosystem participants to utilize a variety of liquid staking providers. 

He clarifies this would decrease the likelihood of any one provider becoming excessively large and posing a systemic risk.

“In the longer term, however, this is an unstable equilibrium, and there is peril in relying too much on moralistic pressure to solve problems," he stated.

Magazine: Are DAOs overhyped and unworkable? Lessons from the front lines

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