As Omicron anxiety fades (and even morphs into talk of the end of the pandemic phase of COVID), oil demand fears have faded and crude prices have ripped back higher, erasing any losses enabled by Biden's SPR Release headlines also...
And pushing WTI back up to its highest levels since 2014...
So where does oil go next?
Oil to $100
Easy, Putin thinks so!
It is "quite possible" that the WTI Crude oil prices reach $100 per barrel in light of growing global demand for energy commodities, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on a CNBC panel at the Russian Energy Week in October.
Asked by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble whether the US benchmark could hit $100 a barrel, Putin replied "That is quite possible."
Additionally, Trafigura, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, affirmed Putin's thinking, noting that recovering global oil demand could send oil prices to $100 a barrel, despite COVID challenges to demand.
Oil to $200?
Building on that theme, Russian and OPEC ministers warned last year that if the 'Net Zero By 2050' plan is enacted, "we'll see $200 oil."
If the world were to follow the International Energy Agency’s controversial road map, which said investment in new fields would have to stop immediately to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, "the price for oil will go to, what, $200? Gas prices will skyrocket," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.
The "euphoria" around the transition to clean energy is "dangerous," Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al Kaabi said at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia in June.
And after a magnificent year in 2021, commodities trader Doug King, who manages the $244 million Merchant Commodity Fund, said oil could soon hit $100 and even $200 over the next five years due to a lack of exploration and investment to maintain existing supplies.
“We believe in structural supply-side commodity inflation that most will not have ever seen -- the highest since the 1970s,” he said in an interview.
“Only OPEC will react to price metrics and they are undershooting every month.”
As Bloomberg reports, OPEC and its partners are gradually increasing crude output after making deep cuts of almost 10 million barrels a day in 2020 when the pandemic first struck. While the group is meant to be pumping an extra 400,000 barrels a day each month, many of its members are struggling to reach their quotas.
“In practice, a lot less oil is making its way to the market,” the Merchant Commodity Fund said in its investor letter.
“Its members are simply unable to return to pre-covid levels of output. This is all down to a lack of investment.”
Within the 23-nation OPEC+, the “only real spare capacity” resides in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, according to the letter. Even Russia, which leads OPEC+ along with the Saudis, can’t pump much more.
“It’s no state secret that Russia is at, or very near, its maximum,” the letter said.
“If not next month, then certainly by April it may not have any more barrels to give.”
Goldman Sachs is “extremely bullish,” citing low spare capacity among oil producers
And in fact, as we detailed previously, a number of traders are already placing bets on oil hitting $100...
And even $200... These are bets that WTI will hit $200 by Dec 2022...
“I haven’t seen crazy strikes like this in a long time,” said Mark Benigno, co-director of energy trading at StoneX Group Inc., referring to the price in the underlying asset at which the options become exercisable.
“The momentum and trend is higher.”
And finally, what about Oil to $300?
It's possible... as we detailed previously, whether you think global warming is a hoax and no technology has done more to uplift billions of people out of abject poverty than the harnessing of fossil fuels, or you think the burning of fossil fuels is irreversibly destroying the planet and urgent action to halt their use should be the top priority of humankind, or even if you think both of these things, this article is for you.
I can assure all sides the following: unless something substantial changes – and soon – the price of oil is going way higher... just ask NatGas buyers in Europe. On an energy-contained-in-oil-equivalency basis, natural gas prices reached the following levels in February:
SoCal Citygate: $835 per barrel
Chicago Citygate: $752 per barrel
Houston Ship Channel: $2,320 per barrel
Waha: $1,196 per barrel
OGT: $6,919 per barrel
Henry Hub: $137 per barrel
Agua Dulce: $528 per barrel
Sure, the price of natural gas didn’t stay there, but it went there. I use this extreme example to illustrate an important point. Fossil fuels are hugely inelastic commodities. Shortages send prices soaring because they are needed and there are not yet fungible substitutes. Society might hate fossil fuels, it might even hate them for very good reasons, but society is trapped in its need for fossil fuels, at least for the time being.
Indeed with quotes like these...
“We see a shift from stigmatization toward criminalization of investing in higher oil production.” – Bob McNally, former White House official, “This Time Is Different” Bloomberg May 30, 2021
“From today, halt all investment in new fossil fuel supply projects and make no further final investment decisions for new unabated coal plants.” – IEA Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050
Perhaps $100, $200, $300 crude is not so far away.
There is at least one person who is hoping that Doug King is wrong as we wonder just what would happen to the president's approval rating if Gas prices at the pump reached $4 (at $100 WTI) or $7 a gallon (at $200 WTI)...
Better start making some more calls Joe?
A dog has caught monkeypox from one of its owners, highlighting risk of the virus infecting pets and wild animals
The monkeypox virus can easily spread between humans and animals. A veterinary virologist explains how the virus could go from people to wild animals in…
A dog in Paris has caught monkeypox from one of its owners, both of whom were infected with the virus, according to a scientific paper published on Aug. 10, 2022. This is the first case of a dog contracting the monkeypox virus through direct contact with skin lesions on a human.
I am a veterinary pathologist and virologist who has been working with poxviruses for over 20 years. I study how these viruses evade the immune system and am working on modifying poxviruses to prevent infection as well as treat other diseases, including cancer.
With monkeypox spreading in humans throughout the world, my colleagues and I have begun to worry about the increased risk of monkeypox spreading from humans to animals. If monkeypox spreads to wildlife species in the U.S. and Europe, the virus could become endemic in these places – where it has historically been absent – resulting in more frequent outbreaks. The report of the infected dog shows that there is a decent chance these fears could become a reality.
A species-jumping virus
Monkeypox is a poxvirus in the same family as variola – the virus that causes smallpox – and cowpox viruses and likely evolved in animals before jumping to humans. Monkeypox causes painful lesions in both humans and animals and, in rare cases, can be deadly. Researchers have found the monkeypox virus in several species of wild rodents, squirrels and primates in Africa, where the virus is endemic. Monkeypox does not need to mutate or evolve at all to be able to infect many different species. It can easily spread from animals to people and back again.
Though there is a fair bit of research on monkeypox, a lot more work has been done on cowpox, a similar zoonotic poxvirus that is endemic in Europe. Over the years, there have been several reports of cowpox infection spreading from animals to humans in Europe.
From people to animals
Until recently, most monkeypox infections occurred in specific areas of Africa where some wildlife species act as reservoirs for the virus. These outbreaks are usually contained quickly through isolation of infected individuals and vaccinating people around the infected individual. The current situation is very different though.
With nearly 40,000 cases globally as of Aug. 17, 2022 – and more than 12,500 cases in the U.S. alone – monkeypox is now widespread within the human population. The risk of any one person transmitting the virus to an animal – particularly a wild one – is small, but the more people are infected, the greater the chances. It’s a numbers game.
There are a number of ways viruses can transfer from animals to people – called spillover – and from people back to animals – called spillback. Since monkeypox is most easily spread through direct skin-to-skin contact, it is a bit more difficult to transmit between species than COVID-19, but certainly possible.
The case of the dog in Paris provides a clear example of how cuddling or being close to a pet can spread the virus. Previous studies on poxviruses like monkeypox have shown that they can stay active in fecal matter. This means that there is a risk of wild animals, likely rodents, catching it from human waste.
The monkeypox virus is also present in saliva. While more research needs to be done, it is potentially possible that an infected person could discard food that would then be eaten by a rodent.
The chances of any one of these events happening is extremely low. But I and other virologists worry that with more people becoming infected, there is a greater risk that rodents or other animals will come into contact with urine, feces or saliva that is contaminated with the virus.
Finally, there is the risk of people giving monkeypox to a pet, which then passes it on to other animals. One case study in Germany described an outbreak of cowpox that was caused when someone took an infected cat to a veterinary clinic and four other cats were subsequently infected. It is feasible that an infected household pet could spread the virus to wild animals somehow.
How to help
One of the key reasons that the World Health Organization was able to eradicate smallpox is that it only infects people, so there were no animal reservoirs that could re-introduce the virus to human populations.
Monkeypox is zoonotic and already has several animal reservoirs, though these are currently limited to Africa. But if monkeypox escapes into wild animal populations in the U.S., Europe or other locations, there will be always be potential for animals to spread it back to humans. With this in mind, there are a number of things people can do to reduce the risks with regard to animals.
As a veterinarian, I strongly encourage anyone with monkeypox to protect your pets. The case in Paris shows that dogs can get infected from contact with their owners, and it is likely that many other species, including cats, are susceptible, too. If you have monkeypox, try to have other people take care of your animals for as long as lesions are present. And if you think your pet has a monkeypox infection, be sure to contact a veterinarian so they can test the lesion and provide care when needed.
Even though monkeypox has been declared a public health emergency, it is unlikely to directly affect most people. Taking precautionary steps can protect you and your pets and will hopefully prevent monkeypox from getting into wildlife in the U.S., too.
Amy Macneill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.spread covid-19 africa europe germany world health organization
A-levels: A grades are up compared to pre-pandemic results
The pandemic has has a serious impact on school pupils – but a record number have applied to university.
The 2022 A-level results are in, and the number of students receiving A or A* grades has fallen – down by 8.4% on 2021.
For the first time since 2019, A-level results are being decided by formal exams. Students were warned that grades were likely to be lower than in 2020 and 2021, when cancelled exams and teacher assessments in A-levels led to record high results. Nevertheless, the proportion of students receiving A grades is up from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
A busy end to the admissions round is under way for universities and students, and the next steps for students still living with the impact of the pandemic are becoming clearer.
In 2021, some universities were over subscribed and had to offer significant incentives for students to defer their places. While the number of students in 2022 accepted on a UK university course – 425,830 – is higher than in 2019 and the second highest on record, it is 2% lower than in 2021. Just a few days before the results were out, thousands of students did not yet hold an offer of an university place.
Over the past two years, students studying qualifications, whether BTEC, T-level or A-level, have had to cope with the consequences of the pandemic for a significant proportion of their course. This has included school closures and remote lessons, social isolation, illness and increased levels of mental stress.
Highest number of applications
Nevertheless, 2022 has seen the highest ever numbers of applications to higher education, with 44% of 18 year olds applying. This number includes record numbers of students from areas of the country with historically low participation in higher education. It demonstrates that many young people believe higher education can make a difference to their future opportunities.
For the lucky ones who get the grades to gain a place at their first choice of university, planning for their degree course starts right away. A record number of Scottish students have already been accepted to their first choice of university.
The best advice for those students who don’t receive confirmation that they have been accepted by their first choice university is to ring the university, who will have staff on hand to explore their options.
For students who haven’t got a university place, it is still possible to explore options though clearing – which allows students without offers to find places on university courses that haven’t been fully subscribed. Students in this position should try to keep calm, write down their options and avoid quick decisions.
For those young people who do go to university, there will be challenges. With the cost of living for all rising rapidly, people on a lower income – as many students are – will feel the pinch of higher bills for food or rent.
Support from universities
The pandemic saw a serious and concerning rise in mental health issues affecting young people. Universities need to be ready to give holistic support to students as they transition into university and settle into undergraduate life. This means support for academic transition needs to be delivered in the context of good available support for mental health and wellbeing.
However, Universities UK, an advocacy groups for universities, has recently pointed out the wide range of benefits for those who study for a degree, including the £9,500 more per year on average graduates in England earn compared with non-graduates. It also draws attention to the value of degrees to improve the life chances of young people, to build skills and to contribute to society.
For many young people, getting a degree gives them access to a vocation such as teaching or working as a health professional. For others it is a path to travel and adventure. For many, the university journey is a place where young people find their tribe and begin to understand their identity.
For the class of 22, making it to university might mean life-changing opportunities. Given the challenges and restrictions of the last few years, this has never been more important.
Helena Gillespie receives funding from the European Union.european uk pandemic
Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) To Acquire Global Blood Therapeutics For $5 Billion
According to sources familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) was in advanced discussions to acquire pharmaceutical…
According to sources familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) was in advanced discussions to acquire pharmaceutical company Global Blood Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GBT) for $5 billion.
Pfizer, too, acquired Global Blood Therapeutics
Pfizer wants to close a deal soon, but there are still other interested parties, according to the article.
Global Blood Therapeutics, which manufactures Oxbryta, the blood disorder medication, saw its shares jump 44% on Friday afternoon to a two-year high. As of Thursday’s closing, the company’s market cap was $3.12 billion.
A spokesman for Global Blood stated the company does not “comment on market rumors or speculation,” while Pfizer declined to respond on the matter.
With plenty of cash left over after selling its COVID-19 vaccine, New York-based Pfizer is searching for deals that may generate billions of dollars annual sales by 2030.
Its $11.6 billion acquisition of migraine medication manufacturer Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding (NASDAQ: BHVN) in May was the most recent in a series of purchases that also included Trillium Therapeutics and Arena Pharmaceuticals in recent years.
Oxbryta received approval last year for sickle cell disease management
In 2019, the US government approved Global Blood’s Oxbryta to manage sickle cell disease in individuals aged 12 and over. The oral medication was approved in December 2021 to treat the illness in younger children. The drug’s sales increased by almost 50% to $194.7 million in 2021.
After a gloomy start to the calendar year, when a lack of significant purchases and clinical-stage treatment failures lowered investor morale and restricted funding, the biotech dealmaking pace has recently picked up again.
Also, Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) also decided to purchase ChemoCentryx Inc on Thursday for $3.7 billion to obtain access to a possible breakthrough medication for inflammatory illnesses. AstraZeneca’s $39 billion acquisition of Alexion Pharmaceuticals in 2020 has put the realm of immune diseases in the limelight. The deal, which was announced before trading opened, will also give the corporation control of at least two investigational immune disorders medicines.
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