Connect with us

COC#7: The Bitcoin Market Hangs Between Hope And Fear

How the Mt. Gox rehab plan and Omicron emergence act as a sword of Damocles above otherwise splendid on-chain supply dynamics.

Published

on

How the Mt. Gox rehab plan and Omicron emergence act as a sword of Damocles above otherwise splendid on-chain supply dynamics.

December 1, 2021

Cycling On-Chain is a monthly column that uses on-chain and price-related data to better understand recent bitcoin market movements and estimate where we are in the cycle. This seventh edition first addresses several on-chain and derivatives-related metrics to gauge the current bitcoin market structure. Then, it discusses two developing narratives that are introducing some fear into the market: the Mt. Gox rehab plan and the emergence of the omicron COVID-19 variant. Finally, we’ll conclude with the results of our monthly poll and the halving cycle roadmap.

Return Of The Hashes

In June 2021, the Chinese government cracked down hard against Bitcoin, banning its mining and censoring exchanges (see COC#2). During that period, Bitcoin’s hash rate halved, creating major fear in bitcoin markets. Since the start of July, the return of that hash rate has been an absolutely stunning phenomenon, illustrated by a streak of nine consecutive positive difficulty adjustments that was just ended by a minor correction (figure 1).

Figure 1: The bitcoin price (black), difficulty (green) and 14-day moving average of the hash rate in exahashes (red) (Source).

The return of this hash rate to the levels of prior highs is by itself a good thing, but even more so when taken into account that the age-old “China controls Bitcoin” narrative is now no longer valid. A recent report by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance confirmed that China now supposedly has a (near) zero share in global bitcoin mining.

Exchange Balances Keep Dropping

During the mid-May capitulation event that triggered a cascade of long liquidations that exacerbated the drop (see COC#1), there was a period where lots of bitcoin were deposited on exchanges. However, exchange balances resumed their downward path quickly after. Current exchange balances are at multi-year lows — we need to scroll back more than three years to identify the last time exchange balances were at these levels (figure 2).

Figure 2: The bitcoin price (black) and balance on exchanges (orange) (Source).

An explanation for this can be sought in improvements of both noncustodial (e.g., hardware or software wallets) and custodial (e.g., professional services that store coins for institutional investors) storage solutions. Either way, the mass exodus of coins off exchanges can be interpreted as a sign that whoever is holding those coins likely does not have the intention to sell them short term. More importantly, the lower the bitcoin supply on exchanges, the quicker exchange balances run short during periods of high demand, causing bitcoin to trade more reflexively. This is sometimes called a supply shock.

The Bitcoin Supply Keeps Becoming More Illiquid

More evidence that there is a trend that more and more bitcoin is moving into the hands of entities that are unlikely to sell can be found in Glassnode’s “illiquid supply” metric. After all, that is exactly what the metric was built for.

Since most financial markets — including bitcoin — crashed hard mid-March 2020, the percentage of the circulating bitcoin supply that Glassnode classifies as “illiquid” has been going up. After a clear drop during the mid-May 2021 capitulation and cascading liquidation event that was also mentioned above, it is currently again in a rapid upward trajectory (figure 3).

Figure 3: The bitcoin price (black) and percentage of the circulating supply that Glassnode classifies as ”illiquid” (green) (Source).

Bitcoin Futures Markets Are Healthier

Another positive aspect when it comes to gauging the current status of bitcoin markets is that derivative markets appear to hold less downside risk than they did during the start of the year (see COC#6).

Compared to early 2021, we are seeing similar levels of open interest, which is the total value of all outstanding bitcoin futures positions (figure 4, blue). Unlike then, bitcoin futures markets now have much lower funding rates (figure 4, green), which means that the market does not have the relatively extreme tendency to go (leveraged) long than it did back then.

Furthermore, the percentage of open interest that is backed by bitcoin has declined from the mid-60s to mid-40s (figure 4, red). Since cash is better at holding its value during a bitcoin price dip and thus less prone to be pushed below the liquidation point where the position is auto-sold, it is a superior collateral for BTC longs. The opposite is true for shorts. If the bitcoin price soars, the collateral of BTC shorts that are cash-margined loses value on a relative basis, making shorts more vulnerable to be liquidated.

Figure 4: The bitcoin price (black), futures open interest (blue), funding rate of perpetual futures (green) and the percentage of the open interest that is bitcoin-margined (red) (Source).

Compared to early 2021, the bitcoin futures markets are, therefore, healthier. They are less tilted toward a positive bias and have a collateral structure that has less downside risk.

A Mempool Full Of Crickets

As already pointed out in COC#4 at the start of September, it has been very quiet on the Bitcoin blockchain for a few months now when it comes to transactions. The incredibly low average transaction fees that we have seen over the last few months (figure 5) are a good example of that. If there is (almost) no waiting line in front of the attraction we’re trying to get into, there’s no need to pay unnecessary high entrance fees.

Figure 5: The bitcoin price (black) and seven-day moving average of the total BTC-denominated transaction fees (Source).

Although the cause of this is likely at least partially technical (e.g., recent Lightning and Segwit adoption, see COC#4), it is likely that another large explanation can be sought in the relative absence of retail in the current market. In COC#6, some other examples of this were described, such as the relatively low Google search trends.

LTH Profit Taking Was Enough To Satiate Recent Market Demand

Around this time in 2020, the Bitcoin blockchain was everything but a ghost town. The bitcoin price had just broken through its 2017 ~$20,000 all-time high, as the world was waking up to a buzzing hive full of cyber hornets and first-time institutional interest. As illustrated in figure 6, long-term holders were already selling parts of their positions into market strength (middle red box), but the market demand was so high that price just kept churning up.

Figure 6: The bitcoin price (black) and percentage of the circulating bitcoin supply that is in the hands of long-term holders (LTH) according to Glassnode (Source).

Last month’s ~$69,000 all-time high is a different story. After breaking the previous ~$65,000 all-time high, price briefly peaked but quickly retreated back to the price levels it came from as soon as long-term holders started their traditional modest profit taking (right red box). Unlike last year, we’re currently not in a bull market with a similarly broad support base, but from what it looks like coming from a more concentrated group of entities.

If that observation is correct, it is not necessarily a bad thing. It would mean that it is less likely that we’ll see a straight away exponential take-off like we did late 2017 and late 2020, but also less likely that we’ll see major price corrections to compensate for frothiness.

Current Outlook Based On On-Chain And Derivatives Data

Compared to early 2021, the bitcoin market looks structurally healthier in a plethora of ways: fundamentally, leverage-wise and based on on-chain trends. The missing ingredient that is needed to send it off to a new round of price discovery seems to be just a spark that ignites a new influx of (retail) market participants.

If there are no surprise events that create another significant market downturn, the ever-present buying pressure of the large number of entities that is dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into bitcoin might be enough to become that spark by continuously pushing price toward recent all-time highs, drawing attention via news outlets. However, there currently are two concrete threats floating around that could spoil the chances of such a continued short-term bull trend.

Mt. Gox Situation Rehab Plan

In 2014, online trading platform Mt. Gox (which comes from “Magic: The Gathering Online eXchange,” as the platform was originally built to exchange cards of the popular fantasy-based card game) was hacked. Approximately 850,000 bitcoin (valued at around $450 million at the time) were reported to be stolen, making it the biggest exchange hack (in BTC terms) in Bitcoin history.

About 200,000 of those were retrieved. Later evidence would show that “most or all of the missing bitcoins were stolen straight out of the Mt. Gox hot cryptocurrency wallet over time, beginning in late 2011.” In hindsight, what went on behind the scenes was a bizarre scenario that sounds like something that came from a movie script. More details about the Mt. Gox hack can be found here.

Since then, the ~127,000 creditors have waited for around seven years full of lawsuits to get back their share of the remaining piece of the pie. On November 17, 2021, the "Mt. Gox Bitcoin rehab plan" that would distribute the final remaining 141,686 bitcoin among creditors of the hack was finally approved. The big question mark that is now still hanging around in the air is when they will receive them back.

Although it is impossible to know what these creditors will do with this bitcoin when they receive them, it is well possible that a (low conviction) portion of them may jump on the opportunity to liquidate their long-awaited bitcoin at a ~200 times return once they receive it back. Such a situation could be compared to a significant number of bitcoin going from an illiquid to a liquid state, potentially sending the price down.

The perspective of 141,686 previously locked-up bitcoin potentially becoming liquid understandably brings some fear into the bitcoin market but might not even be the biggest threat for short-term price action.

Omicron

Last week, the new variant of COVID-19 called “omicron” was discovered in South Africa, where it appears to be spreading exponentially. Omicron is said to have about 30 mutations on the coronavirus' spike protein, potentially making it more infectious than the delta variant that is currently dominant. Since then, the new variant has been discovered in multiple geographically distributed countries as well and is expected to spread more widely soon.

There aren't a lot of facts available regarding the new omicron variant, its transmissibility, how harmful it is compared to previous variants, and thus to what degree it is an actual threat to public health (e.g., effectiveness of current vaccines against it). It will likely take weeks for more details on these aspects to become available. So far the early rumors seem to suggest that the new variant may be more infectious but less harmful.

Either way, global financial markets quickly started pricing in the non-zero chance of this new COVID-19 variant creating havoc. Last Friday, the S&P 500 closed 2.27% lower than it did the previous workday. Bitcoin did even worse, closing 8.76% lower. Although that is not necessarily surprising. Since bitcoin started being adopted by worldwide financial institutions and is now considered a bona fide macroeconomic asset, it regularly sells off when the broader financial markets do.

Correlation Between Bitcoin And The S&P 500

On a larger time frame, the bitcoin price has little to no correlation to other macro assets. Figure 7 visualizes the realized one-month correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500, which averages out at 0.08% since April 17, 2018. The colored zones reflect correlation levels that are negligible (0.00–0.30, white), low (0.30–0.50, blue), moderate (0.50–0.70, yellow), high (0.70–0.90, orange) or very high (0.90–1.00, red).

Figure 7: The one-month (dark blue) and one-year (light blue) realized correlation between the bitcoin price and S&P 500 (Source).

However, there are periods where the bitcoin price increasingly travels along with the S&P 500. The March 2020 sell-off in global financial markets is a good example of this. On March 12 and 13, 2020, bitcoin made a dramatic 50% sell-off alongside the S&P 500 and many other assets, after which both followed a similar V-shaped recovery. During that period, highlighted in the box in figure 7, the one-month correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 increased from a low negative correlation to a moderate positive correlation. The actual price action of both assets since the start of that period is visualized in figure 8.

Figure 8: The bitcoin price (black/white) and the S&P 500 (SPX, blue)

Macroeconomic Differences To The March 2020 Crash

While there is a chance that the new omicron variant is actually less harmful than the currently dominant delta variant, the chance of it being more harmful is what impacts markets. After all, if we were to see a repeat of the March 2020 situation where the world locks down and financial markets crash hard, you’re much better off if you got out before.

A naïve solution for such a repeat scenario could be to simply just copy-paste the monetary and fiscal policies of 2020. After all, didn’t they sort of “work” last time, at least according to the standards of the respective policy makers?

Let’s have a look at what they actually did last time around. Figure 9 displays the “Federal Funds Effective Rate” and shows that, during the response to the first major COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 (gray area), they plummeted from above 1.5% to about 0%. Doing so was a way to stimulate the economy by making it easier for institutions to lend money.

Figure 9: The “Federal Funds Effective Rate” according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (Source).

Figure 9 also shows that after bricking the effective rate, the Federal Reserve (Fed) never got around to significantly raising it again. Just talking about increasing rates already caused short-term stock market dips recently. The Fed currently has a plan to gradually increase interest rates over the next two years, but some question whether that is actually feasible without tanking the stock market, which they will not want to do.

More simply put, the Fed appears to be stuck here at near-zero rates. If increasing rates at relatively favorable market conditions is already hard, imagine what their palette of choices looks like if the economy were to take a nosedive again.

Money Printer Goes Brrr

Besides cutting interest rates to zero, the “Money printer goes brrr” meme that became an instant hit in 2020 does a good job at explaining what else central banks did in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 related policies. It printed money. A lot of money.

Figure 10 shows that 45% of all $6.331 trillion dollars (not credit, actual monetary base dollars) that currently exist were printed since the start of COVID-19 (most right gray area).

Figure 10: The total Monetary Base of the United States Dollar (USD) (Source).

With interest rates near zero, printing actual dollars is arguably the Fed’s largest, if not only, remaining weapon to stimulate the economy during times of hardship.

Inflation Has Officially Arrived

Sustained increase of the money supply is the literal definition of monetary inflation. One of the side effects of sudden monetary inflation is that when the money drips down across the economy, it means that there are eventually more dollars circulating in the hands of the same number of entities that are traded against the same number of goods and services. A logical result may be that the prices of those goods and services would then start to increase.

Which is exactly what we’re currently seeing in the consumer price index (CPI), which represents the annual price increase of the respective basket(s) of goods. The content of those baskets of goods has repeatedly changed over time. Skeptics, therefore, consider the CPI a flawed metric that presents an underrepresentation of the actual inflation. Regardless, figure 11 shows that recent CPI prints actually are setting multi-decade highs, illustrating how extreme current inflation trends actually are.

Figure 11: Median consumer price index (CPI) according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (Source).

Some economists suggest that the current inflation spike is not necessarily a direct result of recent monetary policy but is more likely the result of supply shortages. According to these economists, we collectively bought considerably more goods during the lockdowns to compensate for the large decline in spending on services, which coincided with multiple supply chain problems, for example, related to travel restrictions or not being able to work. Some of these economists do believe that monetary expansion may cause these inflation levels to remain elevated over a long period, though.

Either way, the Fed is currently also between a rock and a hard place here. Printing large quantities of money possibly isn’t going to be as straightforward now as it seemed to be at the beginning of 2020. But can the Fed realistically do anything else, since not intervening will almost certainly mean the economy will go into a deep depression, potentially resulting in a fatal collapse for several over-indebted industries? Time will tell whether the Fed will need to intervene again, and if so, how they will do it and what its impact will be.

Bitcoin Market Sentiment

As always, I’ve taken a monthly Twitter poll to get a rough gauge for the current market sentiment. Such polls always need to be interpreted with a grain of salt due to possible selection bias, but the evolution of the results over time can be interesting.

This month’s poll (figure 12) painted a similar picture to those of the previous months: Respondents are predominantly bullish, on all time frames (weekly, monthly and yearly). However, the group of respondents that expects a potentially downward price trend a year from now appears to be growing in recent months.

Figure 12: Results of a monthly market sentiment poll on Twitter (Source).

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Roadmap

So far, every Cycling On-Chain has closed off with the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Roadmap (figure 13). The roadmap visualizes the bitcoin price, color-overlayed by the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT). The rest of the graph includes price extrapolations based on two time-based models (dotted black lines), the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) model (striped black lines) and cycle indexes for cycles 1 and 2 (white lines) and the geometric and arithmetic averages of those (gray lines). These models all have their own limitations, but together give us a rough estimate of what may be ahead if history does turn out to rhyme once again.

Figure 13: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle Roadmap.

Previous editions of Cycling On-Chain:

Disclaimer: This column was written for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

This is a guest post by Dilution-proof. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

The War Between Knowledge And Stupidity

The War Between Knowledge And Stupidity

Authored by Bert Olivier via The Brownstone Institute,

Bernard Stiegler was, until his premature…

Published

on

The War Between Knowledge And Stupidity

Authored by Bert Olivier via The Brownstone Institute,

Bernard Stiegler was, until his premature death, probably the most important philosopher of technology of the present. His work on technology has shown us that, far from being exclusively a danger to human existence, it is a pharmakon – a poison as well as a cure – and that, as long as we approach technology as a means to ‘critical intensification,’ it could assist us in promoting the causes of enlightenment and freedom.

It is no exaggeration to say that making believable information and credible analysis available to citizens at present is probably indispensable for resisting the behemoth of lies and betrayal confronting us. This has never been more necessary than it is today, given that we face what is probably the greatest crisis in the history of humanity, with nothing less than our freedom, let alone our lives, at stake. 

To be able to secure this freedom against the inhuman forces threatening to shackle it today, one could do no better than to take heed of what Stiegler argues in States of Shock: Stupidity and Knowledge in the 21st Century (2015). Considering what he writes here it is hard to believe that it was not written today (p. 15): 

The impression that humanity has fallen under the domination of unreason or madness [déraison] overwhelms our spirit, confronted as we are with systemic collapses, major technological accidents, medical or pharmaceutical scandals, shocking revelations, the unleashing of the drives, and acts of madness of every kind and in every social milieu – not to mention the extreme misery and poverty that now afflict citizens and neighbours both near and far.

While these words are certainly as applicable to our current situation as it was almost 10 years ago, Stiegler was in fact engaged in an interpretive analysis of the role of banks and other institutions – aided and abetted by certain academics – in the establishment of what he terms a ‘literally suicidal financial system’ (p. 1). (Anyone who doubts this can merely view the award-winning documentary film of 2010, Inside Job, by Charles Ferguson, which Stiegler also mentions on p.1.) He explains further as follows (p. 2): 

Western universities are in the grip of a deep malaise, and a number of them have found themselves, through some of their faculty, giving consent to – and sometimes considerably compromised by – the implementation of a financial system that, with the establishment of hyper-consumerist, drive-based and ‘addictogenic’ society, leads to economic and political ruin on a global scale. If this has occurred, it is because their goals, their organizations and their means have been put entirely at the service of the destruction of sovereignty. That is, they have been placed in the service of the destruction of sovereignty as conceived by the philosophers of what we call the Enlightenment…

In short, Stiegler was writing about the way in which the world was being prepared, across the board – including the highest levels of education – for what has become far more conspicuous since the advent of the so-called ‘pandemic’ in 2020, namely an all-out attempt to cause the collapse of civilisation as we knew it, at all levels, with the thinly disguised goal in mind of installing a neo-fascist, technocratic, global regime which would exercise power through AI-controlled regimes of obedience. The latter would centre on ubiquitous facial recognition technology, digital identification, and CBDCs (which would replace money in the usual sense). 

Given the fact that all of this is happening around us, albeit in a disguised fashion, it is astonishing that relatively few people are conscious of the unfolding catastrophe, let alone being critically engaged in disclosing it to others who still inhabit the land where ignorance is bliss. Not that this is easy. Some of my relatives are still resistant to the idea that the ‘democratic carpet’ is about to be pulled from under their feet. Is this merely a matter of ‘stupidity?’ Stiegler writes about stupidity (p.33):

…knowledge cannot be separated from stupidity. But in my view: (1) this is a pharmacological situation; (2) stupidity is the law of the pharmakon; and (3) the pharmakon is the law of knowledge, and hence a pharmacology for our age must think the pharmakon that I am also calling, today, the shadow. 

In my previous post I wrote about the media as pharmaka (plural of pharmakon), showing how, on the one hand, there are (mainstream) media which function as ‘poison,’ while on the other there are (alternative) media that play the role of ‘cure.’ Here, by linking the pharmakon with stupidity, Stiegler alerts one to the (metaphorically speaking) ‘pharmacological’ situation, that knowledge is inseparable from stupidity: where there is knowledge, the possibility of stupidity always asserts itself, and vice versa. Or in terms of what he calls ‘the shadow,’ knowledge always casts a shadow, that of stupidity. 

Anyone who doubts this may only cast their glance at those ‘stupid’ people who still believe that the Covid ‘vaccines’ are ‘safe and effective,’ or that wearing a mask would protect them against infection by ‘the virus.’ Or, more currently, think of those – the vast majority in America – who routinely fall for the Biden administration’s (lack of an) explanation of its reasons for allowing thousands of people to cross the southern – and more recently also the northern – border. Several alternative sources of news and analysis have lifted the veil on this, revealing that the influx is not only a way of destabilising the fabric of society, but possibly a preparation for civil war in the United States. 

There is a different way of explaining this widespread ‘stupidity,’ of course – one that I have used before to explain why most philosophers have failed humanity miserably, by failing to notice the unfolding attempt at a global coup d’etat, or at least, assuming that they did notice it, to speak up against it. These ‘philosophers’ include all the other members of the philosophy department where I work, with the honourable exception of the departmental assistant, who is, to her credit, wide awake to what has been occurring in the world. They also include someone who used to be among my philosophical heroes, to wit, Slavoj Žižek, who fell for the hoax hook, line, and sinker.

In brief, this explanation of philosophers’ stupidity – and by extension that of other people – is twofold. First there is ‘repression’ in the psychoanalytic sense of the term (explained at length in both the papers linked in the previous paragraph), and secondly there is something I did not elaborate on in those papers, namely what is known as ‘cognitive dissonance.’ The latter phenomenon manifests itself in the unease that people exhibit when they are confronted by information and arguments that are not commensurate, or conflict, with what they believe, or which explicitly challenge those beliefs. The usual response is to find standard, or mainstream-approved responses to this disruptive information, brush it under the carpet, and life goes on as usual.

‘Cognitive dissonance’ is actually related to something more fundamental, which is not mentioned in the usual psychological accounts of this unsettling experience. Not many psychologists deign to adduce repression in their explanation of disruptive psychological conditions or problems encountered by their clients these days, and yet it is as relevant as when Freud first employed the concept to account for phenomena such as hysteria or neurosis, recognising, however, that it plays a role in normal psychology too. What is repression? 

In The Language of Psychoanalysis (p. 390), Jean Laplanche and Jean-Bertrand Pontalis describe ‘repression’ as follows: 

Strictly speaking, an operation whereby the subject attempts to repel, or to confine to the unconscious, representations (thoughts, images, memories) which are bound to an instinct. Repression occurs when to satisfy an instinct – though likely to be pleasurable in itself – would incur the risk of provoking unpleasure because of other requirements. 

 …It may be looked upon as a universal mental process to so far as it lies at the root of the constitution of the unconscious as a domain separate from the rest of the psyche. 

In the case of the majority of philosophers, referred to earlier, who have studiously avoided engaging critically with others on the subject of the (non-)‘pandemic’ and related matters, it is more than likely that repression occurred to satisfy the instinct of self-preservation, regarded by Freud as being equally fundamental as the sexual instinct. Here, the representations (linked to self-preservation) that are confined to the unconscious through repression are those of death and suffering associated with the coronavirus that supposedly causes Covid-19, which are repressed because of being intolerable. The repression of (the satisfaction of) an instinct, mentioned in the second sentence of the first quoted paragraph, above, obviously applies to the sexual instinct, which is subject to certain societal prohibitions. Cognitive dissonance is therefore symptomatic of repression, which is primary. 

Returning to Stiegler’s thesis concerning stupidity, it is noteworthy that the manifestations of such inanity are not merely noticeable among the upper echelons of society; worse – there seems to be, by and large, a correlation between those in the upper classes, with college degrees, and stupidity.

In other words, it is not related to intelligence per se. This is apparent, not only in light of the initially surprising phenomenon pertaining to philosophers’ failure to speak up in the face of the evidence, that humanity is under attack, discussed above in terms of repression. 

Dr Reiner Fuellmich, one of the first individuals to realise that this was the case, and subsequently brought together a large group of international lawyers and scientists to testify in the ‘court of public opinion’ (see 29 min. 30 sec. into the video) on various aspects of the currently perpetrated ‘crime against humanity,’ has drawn attention to the difference between the taxi drivers he talks to about the globalists’ brazen attempt to enslave humanity, and his learned legal colleagues as far as awareness of this ongoing attempt is concerned. In contrast with the former, who are wide awake in this respect, the latter – ostensibly more intellectually qualified and ‘informed’ – individuals are blissfully unaware that their freedom is slipping away by the day, probably because of cognitive dissonance, and behind that, repression of this scarcely digestible truth.

This is stupidity, or the ‘shadow’ of knowledge, which is recognisable in the sustained effort by those afflicted with it, when confronted with the shocking truth of what is occurring worldwide, to ‘rationalise’ their denial by repeating spurious assurances issued by agencies such as the CDC, that the Covid ‘vaccines’ are ‘safe and effective,’ and that this is backed up by ‘the science.’ 

Here a lesson from discourse theory is called for. Whether one refers to natural science or to social science in the context of some particular scientific claim – for example, Einstein’s familiar theory of special relativity (e=mc2) under the umbrella of the former, or David Riesman’s sociological theory of ‘inner-’ as opposed to ‘other-directedness’ in social science – one never talks about ‘the science,’ and for good reason. Science is science. The moment one appeals to ‘the science,’ a discourse theorist would smell the proverbial rat.

Why? Because the definite article, ‘the,’ singles out a specific, probably dubious, version of science compared to science as such, which does not need being elevated to special status. In fact, when this is done through the use of ‘the,’ you can bet your bottom dollar it is no longer science in the humble, hard-working, ‘belonging-to-every-person’ sense. If one’s sceptical antennae do not immediately start buzzing when one of the commissars of the CDC starts pontificating about ‘the science,’ one is probably similarly smitten by the stupidity that’s in the air. 

Earlier I mentioned the sociologist David Riesman and his distinction between ‘inner-directed’ and ‘other-directed’ people. It takes no genius to realise that, to navigate one’s course through life relatively unscathed by peddlers of corruption, it is preferable to take one’s bearings from ‘inner direction’ by a set of values which promotes honesty and eschews mendacity, than from the ‘direction by others.’ Under present circumstances such other-directedness applies to the maze of lies and misinformation emanating from various government agencies as well as from certain peer groups, which today mostly comprise the vociferously self-righteous purveyors of the mainstream version of events. Inner-directness in the above sense, when constantly renewed, could be an effective guardian against stupidity. 

Recall that Stiegler warned against the ‘deep malaise’ at contemporary universities in the context of what he called an ‘addictogenic’ society – that is, a society that engenders addictions of various kinds. Judging by the popularity of the video platform TikTok at schools and colleges, its use had already reached addiction levels by 2019, which raises the question, whether it should be appropriated by teachers as a ‘teaching tool,’ or whether it should, as some people think, be outlawed completely in the classroom.

Recall that, as an instance of video technology, TikTok is an exemplary embodiment of the pharmakon, and that, as Stiegler has emphasised, stupidity is the law of the pharmakon, which is, in turn, the law of knowledge. This is a somewhat confusing way of saying that knowledge and stupidity cannot be separated; where knowledge is encountered, its other, stupidity, lurks in the shadows. 

Reflecting on the last sentence, above, it is not difficult to realise that, parallel to Freud’s insight concerning Eros and Thanatos, it is humanly impossible for knowledge to overcome stupidity once and for all. At certain times the one will appear to be dominant, while on different occasions the reverse will apply. Judging by the fight between knowledge and stupidity today, the latter ostensibly still has the upper hand, but as more people are awakening to the titanic struggle between the two, knowledge is in the ascendant. It is up to us to tip the scales in its favour – as long as we realise that it is a never-ending battle. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 23:00

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

"I Can’t Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great…

Published

on

"I Can't Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great - suggesting in his State of the Union Address last week that "our economy is the envy of the world," Americans are being absolutely crushed by inflation (which the Biden admin blames on 'shrinkflation' and 'corporate greed'), and of course - crippling debt.

The signs are obvious. Last week we noted that banks' charge-offs are accelerating, and are now above pre-pandemic levels.

...and leading this increase are credit card loans - with delinquencies that haven't been this high since Q3 2011.

On top of that, while credit cards and nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate loans drove the quarterly increase in the noncurrent rate, residential mortgages drove the quarterly increase in the share of loans 30-89 days past due.

And while Biden and crew can spin all they want, an average of polls from RealClear Politics shows that just 40% of people approve of Biden's handling of the economy.

Crushed

On Friday, Bloomberg dug deeper into the effects of Biden's "envious" economy on Americans - specifically, how massive debt loads (credit cards and auto loans especially) are absolutely crushing people.

Two years after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to tame prices, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans are the highest in more than a decade. For the first time on record, interest payments on those and other non-mortgage debts are as big a financial burden for US households as mortgage interest payments.

According to the report, this presents a difficult reality for millions of consumers who drive the US economy - "The era of high borrowing costs — however necessary to slow price increases — has a sting of its own that many families may feel for years to come, especially the ones that haven’t locked in cheap home loans."

The Fed, meanwhile, doesn't appear poised to cut rates until later this year.

According to a February paper from IMF and Harvard, the recent high cost of borrowing - something which isn't reflected in inflation figures, is at the heart of lackluster consumer sentiment despite inflation having moderated and a job market which has recovered (thanks to job gains almost entirely enjoyed by immigrants).

In short, the debt burden has made life under President Biden a constant struggle throughout America.

"I’m making the most money I've ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck," 40-year-old Denver resident Nikki Cimino told Bloomberg. Cimino is carrying a monthly mortgage of $1,650, and has $4,000 in credit card debt following a 2020 divorce.

Nikki CiminoPhotographer: Rachel Woolf/Bloomberg

"There's this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing."

What's more, according to Wells Fargo, families have taken on debt at a comparatively fast rate - no doubt to sustain the same lifestyle as low rates and pandemic-era stimmies provided. In fact, it only took four years for households to set a record new debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021 when interest rates were near zero. 

Meanwhile, that increased debt load is exacerbated by credit card interest rates that have climbed to a record 22%, according to the Fed.

[P]art of the reason some Americans were able to take on a substantial load of non-mortgage debt is because they’d locked in home loans at ultra-low rates, leaving room on their balance sheets for other types of borrowing. The effective rate of interest on US mortgage debt was just 3.8% at the end of last year.

Yet the loans and interest payments can be a significant strain that shapes families’ spending choices. -Bloomberg

And of course, the highest-interest debt (credit cards) is hurting lower-income households the most, as tends to be the case.

The lowest earners also understandably had the biggest increase in credit card delinquencies.

"Many consumers are levered to the hilt — maxed out on debt and barely keeping their heads above water," Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit-focused investment firm Beach Point Capital Management told Bloomberg. "They can dog paddle, if you will, but any uptick in unemployment or worsening of the economy could drive a pretty significant spike in defaults."

"We had more money when Trump was president," said Denise Nierzwicki, 69. She and her 72-year-old husband Paul have around $20,000 in debt spread across multiple cards - all of which have interest rates above 20%.

Denise and Paul Nierzwicki blame Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November.
Photographer: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg

During the pandemic, Denise lost her job and a business deal for a bar they owned in their hometown of Lexington, Kentucky. While they applied for Social Security to ease the pain, Denise is now working 50 hours a week at a restaurant. Despite this, they're barely scraping enough money together to service their debt.

The couple blames Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plans to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Denise routinely voted for Democrats up until about 2010, when she grew dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s economic stances, she said. Now, she supports Donald Trump because he lowered taxes and because of his policies on immigration. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile there's student loans - which are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy.

"I can't even save, I don't have a savings account," said 29-year-old in Columbus, Ohio resident Brittany Walling - who has around $80,000 in federal student loans, $20,000 in private debt from her undergraduate and graduate degrees, and $6,000 in credit card debt she accumulated over a six-month stretch in 2022 while she was unemployed.

"I just know that a lot of people are struggling, and things need to change," she told the outlet.

The only silver lining of note, according to Bloomberg, is that broad wage gains resulting in large paychecks has made it easier for people to throw money at credit card bills.

Yet, according to Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein, "As rates rose in 2023, we avoided a slowdown due to spending that was very much tied to easy access to credit ... Now, credit has become harder to come by and more expensive."

According to Grein, the change has posed "a significant headwind to consumption."

Then there's the election

"Maybe the Fed is done hiking, but as long as rates stay on hold, you still have a passive tightening effect flowing down to the consumer and being exerted on the economy," she continued. "Those household dynamics are going to be a factor in the election this year."

Meanwhile, swing-state voters in a February Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said they trust Trump more than Biden on interest rates and personal debt.

Reverberations

These 'headwinds' have M3 Partners' Moshin Meghji concerned.

"Any tightening there immediately hits the top line of companies," he said, noting that for heavily indebted companies that took on debt during years of easy borrowing, "there's no easy fix."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 18:00

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater…

Published

on

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

Credit: Photo courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Comprehensive Cancer Center

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

The authors emphasized that increased mortality worldwide caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, armed conflict, and terrorism have accelerated the urgency for national- and global-level frameworks to strengthen the provision of sustainable and accessible bereavement care. Unfortunately, current national and global investment in bereavement support services is woefully inadequate to address this growing public health crisis, said researchers with Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and collaborating organizations.  

They proposed a model for transitional care that involves firmly establishing bereavement support services within healthcare organizations to ensure continuity of family-centered care while bolstering community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and a grief-informed workforce. The model highlights the responsibility of the health system to build bridges to the community that can help grievers feel held as they transition.   

The Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care at Sylvester is advocating for precisely this model of transitional care. Wendy G. Lichtenthal, PhD, FT, FAPOS, who is Founding Director of the new Center and associate professor of public health sciences at the Miller School, noted, “We need a paradigm shift in how healthcare professionals, institutions, and systems view bereavement care. Sylvester is leading the way by investing in the establishment of this Center, which is the first to focus on bringing the transitional bereavement care model to life.”

What further distinguishes the Center is its roots in bereavement science, advancing care approaches that are both grounded in research and community-engaged.  

The authors focused on palliative care, which strives to provide a holistic approach to minimize suffering for seriously ill patients and their families, as one area where improvements are critically needed. They referenced groundbreaking reports of the Lancet Commissions on the value of global access to palliative care and pain relief that highlighted the “undeniable need for improved bereavement care delivery infrastructure.” One of those reports acknowledged that bereavement has been overlooked and called for reprioritizing social determinants of death, dying, and grief.

“Palliative care should culminate with bereavement care, both in theory and in practice,” explained Lichtenthal, who is the article’s corresponding author. “Yet, bereavement care often is under-resourced and beset with access inequities.”

Transitional bereavement care model

So, how do health systems and communities prioritize bereavement services to ensure that no bereaved individual goes without needed support? The transitional bereavement care model offers a roadmap.

“We must reposition bereavement care from an afterthought to a public health priority. Transitional bereavement care is necessary to bridge the gap in offerings between healthcare organizations and community-based bereavement services,” Lichtenthal said. “Our model calls for health systems to shore up the quality and availability of their offerings, but also recognizes that resources for bereavement care within a given healthcare institution are finite, emphasizing the need to help build communities’ capacity to support grievers.”

Key to the model, she added, is the bolstering of community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and “upskilling” of professional services to assist those with more substantial bereavement-support needs.

The model contains these pillars:

  • Preventive bereavement care –healthcare teams engage in bereavement-conscious practices, and compassionate communities are mindful of the emotional and practical needs of dying patients’ families.
  • Ownership of bereavement care – institutions provide bereavement education for staff, risk screenings for families, outreach and counseling or grief support. Communities establish bereavement centers and “champions” to provide bereavement care at workplaces, schools, places of worship or care facilities.
  • Resource allocation for bereavement care – dedicated personnel offer universal outreach, and bereaved stakeholders provide input to identify community barriers and needed resources.
  • Upskilling of support providers – Bereavement education is integrated into training programs for health professionals, and institutions offer dedicated grief specialists. Communities have trained, accessible bereavement specialists who provide support and are educated in how to best support bereaved individuals, increasing their grief literacy.
  • Evidence-based care – bereavement care is evidence-based and features effective grief assessments, interventions, and training programs. Compassionate communities remain mindful of bereavement care needs.

Lichtenthal said the new Center will strive to materialize these pillars and aims to serve as a global model for other health organizations. She hopes the paper’s recommendations “will cultivate a bereavement-conscious and grief-informed workforce as well as grief-literate, compassionate communities and health systems that prioritize bereavement as a vital part of ethical healthcare.”

“This paper is calling for healthcare institutions to respond to their duty to care for the family beyond patients’ deaths. By investing in the creation of the Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care, Sylvester is answering this call,” Lichtenthal said.

Follow @SylvesterCancer on X for the latest news on Sylvester’s research and care.

# # #

Article Title: Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Authors: The complete list of authors is included in the paper.

Funding: The authors received funding from the National Cancer Institute (P30 CA240139 Nimer) and P30 CA008748 Vickers).

Disclosures: The authors declared no competing interests.

# # #


Read More

Continue Reading

Trending