Connect with us


Clorox Stock- Anything But A Value Stock

In The Graduate, a young Dustin Hoffman, upon his college graduation, is taken aside by a family friend for career advice. The friend offers Dustin one…



In The Graduate, a young Dustin Hoffman, upon his college graduation, is taken aside by a family friend for career advice. The friend offers Dustin one word; “plastics.” He encourages Hoffman’s character to pursue a career in the explosive growth, up-and-coming plastics industry.  We may want to think of similar advice for our children and their friends with graduation ceremonies upon us. It is also incumbent on us to consider the same advice regarding our portfolios. If we have a longer-term window and can ignore short-term volatility, should we invest in a volatile growth stock like Nvidia or a stable low growth company like Clorox? 

Many investment pundits may rephrase the question as a choice between a value stock and a growth stock. The terms “value” and “growth” have become blurred in recent years. What appears to be a value stock may be in its reputation only.

Valuations Matters

Most readers with long-term investment horizons will answer our earlier question by selecting the semiconductor giant Nvidia.

We confidently state that the semiconductor industry will grow multiples of the bleach industry.

However, the value growth investment question is not which stock is considered growth or value, but which is priced cheaper given their distinctly different growth rates. At the right price, Clorox may be a much better investment than Nvidia, despite Nvidia’s substantial growth potential.

Unfortunately, many passive investors assume companies with long successful histories and mature products in low-growth industries are value stocks. Conversely, a semiconductor company or other high-growth technology must be a growth company in many investors’ eyes. Such assumptions get investors in trouble.

Nvidia or Clorox: Where is the Value?

To help answer our question, we start with a cursory view of their share prices since 2020.

As the graph below shows, CLX had a nice run during the height of the pandemic as bleach was in high demand. After a 60% surge, it gradually erased the gains and is back to similar levels as two years ago.

NVDA initially fell by 35% in March 2020 but stormed back, growing from $50 to a peak of $333. Since hitting a record high in November 2021, it has fallen nearly 50%, although still trading at a reasonable premium to its pre-pandemic levels. 


While most investors stare at stock prices all day, fundamentals are what matter. Simply, what are you getting for the price? This is where the Nvidia and Clorox valuations and recent performance get interesting. Further, it is where the line between value and growth gets hazy.

Since 2020, NVDA has grown its revenue by 146%, while CLX has grown revenue by 15%. Sales are a significant consideration in stock analysis, but how well sales revenue translates into bottom-line growth is more important. NVDA has grown EBITDA by 242%, while CLX has seen a 23% decline in EBITDA over the same period. Earnings are a function of sales and margins. Operating margins at NVDA are up nearly 11 points since 2020, while CLX has dropped 7.5.

NVDA’s Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) has fallen by 14 since 2020. At the same time, CLX has risen by 13.5.

Current Valuations

The above data certainly points to NVDA as the higher growth company with more robust fundamentals. However, we want to stress that price and fundamentals matter, but only in the context of valuations.

A company can have poor growth rates and weakening margins, but it may be an excellent investment at a low enough valuation. Conversely, a company like Tesla is experiencing tremendous growth, but its market cap equals that of the entire auto industry.

With that background, let’s compare NVDA and CLX valuations.

nvda clx stock price

If you only looked at the table above and didn’t know which companies they were, you would likely struggle to pick the value stock. NVDA has a higher P/E but a lower forward P/E. NVDA also has a much lower price to book value but a much higher price to sales ratio.

To help break the tie, let’s compare their PEG ratios. The PEG ratio or price to earnings growth is the price to earnings ratio divided by earnings growth. This ratio helps make sense of P/E within the context of expected growth. A P/E of 100 may be cheap, for instance, if earnings are growing at 200%. Conversely, a P/E of five may be expensive if earnings are shrinking.

A PEG ratio of one typically defines the border between over and undervaluation. By this metric, both companies are overvalued, with ratios well above one. However, NVDA’s PEG ratio is decently lower than CLX.

We believe that NVDA is trading at a lower valuation than Clorox based on the data above. 

SimpleVisor Models

To add to the analysis, we share our internal model. The model helps assess if stocks are rich or cheap to their long-running normalized valuations. The model assigns a fair value price based on its normalized P/E ratio. It then tracks how the stock price trades around that ratio.

In the Clorox graph below, the stock price (black line) tended to gravitate around the gray fair value line from 2012 to 2019. When it was above the gray line, we would say Clorox stock is overvalued and vice versa for when it is below. Currently, Clorox is over two standard deviations or 60% above the model’s fair value.   

clorox valuation fundamental

The following graph shows a similar analysis for NVDA. From 2012 to 2019, it also bounced around its fair value level. However, once the pandemic struck, it traded well above fair value. Until November 2021, Nvidia stock, like Clorox, was over two standard deviations above its fair value. Since then, it has fallen back much closer to fair value, currently trading at a 19% premium.

nvda fundamental valuation

Neither stock is cheap using this model, but the model asserts Nvidia, not Clorox is the more reasonable of the two companies. Dare we say if we must pick a value stock from the two choices, it would be Nvidia, not Clorox.


NVDA is growing earnings and revenues much faster than Clorox. That in and of itself is not a surprise. The real revelation is that these two companies trade at similar valuations despite vastly different growth trajectories.

Given that NVDA is proliferating and CLX growth appears limited, our analysis questions why hold a “value” stock in CLX versus a “growth” stock in NVDA. This article is not a prompt to buy Nvidia or sell Clorox stock, but it highlights that some stocks are perceived as value stocks despite valuations that are on par with growth stocks offering significantly greater growth potential.

Investors tend to lump certain stocks within broad classifications. Clorox, for example, is widely touted as a value stock. NVDA is known as a high-growth stock. The problem with these classifications is that it is not the underlying business that matters; it is the price you pay for their earnings potential.

The post Clorox Stock- Anything But A Value Stock appeared first on RIA.

Read More

Continue Reading


Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast for May: Slowing House Price Growth

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released this week. The “April” report is a 3-month average including February, March and April closings.  So, this included price increases when mortgage rates were significantly lower than today. Th…



The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released this week. The "April" report is a 3-month average including February, March and April closings.  So, this included price increases when mortgage rates were significantly lower than today. This report includes some homes with contracts signed last December (that closed in February)!

Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow Research: April 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Putting on the Brakes
With rates continuing their steep ascent and inventory picking up in months since, April is likely the first month of this deceleration as buyers balked at the cost of purchasing a home and pulled out of the market, leading to slower price growth. While inventory is improving, there is still plenty of room to go before it reaches its pre-pandemic trend. Still, coupled with relatively strong demand, that will continue to be a driver for sustained high prices even as sales volume is dropping in response to affordability constraints. As a result, more buyers will take a step to the sidelines in the coming months, which will help inventory to recover and price growth to slow from its peak, leading the market back to a more balanced stable state in the long run and providing more future opportunities for homeownership for those priced out today.

Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to slow in all three indices. Monthly appreciation in May is expected to decelerate from April in both city indices, and hold in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, July 26.
emphasis added
The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be 19.5% in May. This is slightly slower than in February, March and April, but still very strong YoY growth.

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Airline stocks have been beset by external problems but could now be a good time to invest in a sector many think is in crisis?

It’s fair to say it has been a tough couple of years for the commercial aviation sector and investors in airline stocks. In 2019 the sector enjoyed record…



It’s fair to say it has been a tough couple of years for the commercial aviation sector and investors in airline stocks. In 2019 the sector enjoyed record passenger numbers and 2020 was expected to be better yet. Low cost airlines were expanding aggressively, as they had been for years, and national carriers, in response, had made strides in cutting costs and introducing other efficiencies.

Then the Covid-19 pandemic struck, devastating the sector. Over the early part of the pandemic when international travel was severely restricted, airlines operated skeleton schedules. Severely reduced capacity, and schedules regularly interrupted by new lockdowns and shifting government policies bedevilled the sector for the next two years.

Even over the past few months which have seen most pandemic-related travel restrictions drop, a spate of new problems has hampered the sector’s recovery. Staff shortages, the result of a combination of the continuing need for those that become infected with Covid-19 to isolate and a tight labour market, have been a major headache. London-listed easyJet recently cut its capacity forecasts as a result of staffing issues.

And last week over 700 Heathrow airport staff voted to strike over the peak summer period, which promises chaos, and hundreds of cancelled flights, if an agreement can’t be reached over pay in the meanwhile. Staff at three Spanish airports are also calling for industrial action this summer and strikes are a threat elsewhere around Europe’s favourite holiday destinations.

Sky high fuel costs will also put pressure on margins this summer and potentially well into next year and a growing cost of living crisis sparked by inflation levels at 40-year highs will not help demand.

Airline share prices have predictably slumped since the onset of the pandemic. EasyJet’s valuation is down over 50% in the past year and over 75% since summer 2018. Its shares haven’t been worth as little as they currently are since early January 2012.

easyjet plc

Hope on the horizon?

But despite the fact the immediate future still looks tough for airlines, there are a number of reasons why investors might consider dipping into their stocks now or in the months ahead.

The first is that the bulk of the problems that have crushed airline valuations over the past couple of years have been external factors outwith control and unrelated to the underlying quality of companies. They are also all problems that are expected to be temporary and will ease in future. Covid-19 restrictions are, with the notable exception of China, no longer a big issue and hopefully won’t return. And even China recently reduced its mandatory quarantine period for anyone arriving in the country from two weeks to seven days.

That’s still problematic but a sign that an end to the dark cloud of the pandemic may finally be in sight. Most airlines were forced to either take on significant new debt or raise cash through equity issues that diluted existing shareholders, or through mechanisms such as selling and leasing back aircraft.

It will take time for that gearing to be unwound and balance sheets brought back to health. But the sector will eventually recover from the pandemic which should see higher valuations return, providing a buying opportunity at current depressed levels.

Airlines that have come out of the pandemic in the strongest positions will also likely gain market share from weaker rivals, improving their future prospects. British Airways owner IAG, for example, currently has access to more than £10 billion in cash after raising capital to cover losses over the pandemic. EasyJet has access to £4.4 billion. That means both should be well placed to cover any continuing short term losses until passenger numbers return to 2019 levels and push their advantage over less well-capitalised rivals.

Both IAG and easyJet have also seen their passenger capacity improve significantly in recent months. Over the all-important summer quarter to September, the latter expects its passenger capacity to reach 90% of 2019 levels despite the ongoing operational challenges. IAG expects to return to 90% of 2019 capacity over the last quarter of the year.

A full recovery to 2019 levels is possible by next year even if higher costs are likely to mean ticket price increases are inevitable. That does pose a risk for near-term leisure travel demand but there is confidence that remaining pent-up demand from the pandemic period will help soften the impact on discretionary spending on international travel that might have otherwise been more pronounced. Western consumers have also, the pandemic period apart, become so accustomed to taking foreign holidays that some analysts now question if they should still be considered discretionary spending rather than a staple.

Despite the transient and external nature of the problems that have hit easyJet’s valuation, not all analysts are convinced the current share price offers good value even despite its depressed level. They still look relatively expensive given the risks still facing the sector at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of close to x160.


IAG could offer better value, currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just x5.8 for next year. It is also expected to reverse return to a healthy profit by 2023. The company also has exposure to the budget airline market through Vueling and Aer Lingus and while it abandoned its move to take over Air Europa late last year it shows it has ambitions to further expand in this area. And it has plenty of capital available to it to make major acquisitions that could fuel growth when the sector recovers.

IAG’s cheap valuation does reflect the risks it faces over the next couple of years but for investors willing to take on a little more risk the potential upside looks attractive.

A dollar-denominated airline stock play

On the other side of the Atlantic, American airlines also suffered during the pandemic but are now recovering strongly. For British investors, dollar-denominated U.S. stocks also offer the attraction of potential gains in pound sterling terms as a result of a strengthening U.S. dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive raising of interest rates compared to the ECB or Bank of England is boosting the dollar against the pound and euro and it is also benefitting from its safe haven status during a period of economic stress.

One U.S. airline that looks particularly interesting right new is Southwest Airlines, the world’s largest low cost carrier. The USA’s domestic travel market has recovered so strongly this year that Southwest expects its Q2 revenues to be 10% higher than those over the same three months in 2019. It’s already profitable again and earnings per share are forecast to come in at $2.67 for 2022 and then leap to $3.84 in 2023. It’s a much more profitable operator than easyHet.

It also, unusually for an American airline, hedges a lot of its oil. That’s expected to see it achieve much better operating margins this year, predicted to reach 15.5% in Q2,  than other airlines being hit by much higher fuel costs. The company isn’t immune to the risk of the impact the inflationary squeeze could have on leisure travel but is seen as one of the most resilient airlines in the sector. It could be a better bet than either of its two London-listed peers.

The post Airline stocks have been beset by external problems but could now be a good time to invest in a sector many think is in crisis? first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

Read More

Continue Reading


Falling VIX Spells BIG Trouble For The Bears

If there’s one thing that a bear market – secular or cyclical – feeds on, it’s fear. The further the drop, the bigger the spike we see in the Volatility…



If there's one thing that a bear market - secular or cyclical - feeds on, it's fear. The further the drop, the bigger the spike we see in the Volatility Index ($VIX). From the website, the VIX "measures the level of expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days that is implied in the bid/ask quotations of S&P options. Thus, the VIX is a forward-looking measure..." So let's be clear about this. The VIX does NOT measure what's happening now or what just happened last week. Instead, it looks forward to determine expected volatility. High volatility is generally associated with falling equity prices and low volatility typically accompanies rising equity prices.

As fear dissipates, expected volatility drops, and bear markets end. That's the historical formula. Let's start off by looking back to the financial crisis in 2008 and how the spiking VIX unfolded:

The VIX topped in October 2008 and though the S&P 500 hit two lower price points, the bear market ran out of sellers as fear came tumbling down in late 2008 and into the first quarter of 2009.

During the market turbulence in 2014-2016, we saw a somewhat similar pattern:

Q4 2018 was a very short cyclical bear market (less than 3 months), as was the pandemic-led selling in March 2020 (4 weeks), so there really wasn't much time to evaluate the VIX at various low points, but currently we're seeing a similar pattern in the cyclical bear market of 2022:

But the action on the VIX was really strange this week. The S&P 500 saw selling pressure once again, yet the VIX finished very close to a 3-week low. Check out this 1-month 30-minute chart:

From mid-day on Thursday through the early morning Friday, the S&P 500 fell from 3820 to 3750 and the VIX was dropping right along with it. That's extremely unusual behavior. The VIX is looking ahead and it's pricing in less volatility. That suggests that we're being given a signal of a rally ahead. That's the reason the VIX goes down. Less volatility means higher equity prices.

We're heading into a fresh quarterly earnings season and I'll be featuring one company that I believe is poised to make a big run into its quarterly earnings report later this month. To read about it in our next newsletter article, simply CLICK HERE and sign up for our FREE EB Digest newsletter. It only takes a name and email address. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!


Read More

Continue Reading