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Celebrate Reopening With MoneyShow Orlando Magic

After thirteen months without in-person conferences I am
thrilled to be heading to the first MoneyShow since Covid-19 changed
our lives and the world. It will be magical to meet and see investors, traders,
readers, subscribers and colleagues once again…

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After thirteen months without in-person conferences I am thrilled to be heading to the first MoneyShow since Covid-19 changed our lives and the world. It will be magical to meet and see investors, traders, readers, subscribers and colleagues once again to share insights and knowledge as well as a nosh, a drink and some laughs.

I hope you can join me at The 2021 MoneyShow Orlando, June 10-12! During this one-of-a-kind investment conference, self-directed investors and traders will receive real-time market and economic analysis, discover hundreds of specific buy-and-sell recommendations, learn how 100+ experts are adapting their strategies to the new economy, test-drive and compare new tools and services, and a lot more!

My Presentation Schedule:

Reposition Ahead of Tech’s Worst 4 Months Seasonality
Friday, June 11, 2021 | 5:15 pm - 6:00 pm EDT

Market Cycles & Seasonality for the Modern Trader*
Saturday, June 12, 2021 | 11:00 am - 1:00 pm EDT

Super Boom Forecast Ahead of Schedule for Dow 38,820
Saturday, June 12, 2021 | 1:45 pm - 2:30 pm EDT

Additional Featured Speakers Include:

  • Larry Kudlow, CEO, Kudlow & Company
  • Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media
  • Ray Wang, Principal Analyst and Founder, Constellation Research
  • Jon Najarian, Co-Founder, Market Rebellion
  • Carley Garner, Sr. Commodity Market Strategist, DeCarley Trading
  • Thomas Lee, Managing Partner, Fundstrat Global Advisors
  • Stephen Moore, Co-Founder, Committee to Unleash Prosperity
  • Louis Navellier, Editor, Growth Investor, Breakthrough Stocks
  • Mark Skousen, Editor, Forecasts & Strategies, TNT Trader
  • Hilary Kramer, Editor, GameChangers

Positioning your portfolio to capitalize on opportunity while safeguarding against the volatility of these challenging times requires the very best tools, strategies, and advice. The expert-led presentations, workshops, and panel discussions you will attend at The MoneyShow Orlando will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment, including timely recommendations on stocks, bonds, ETFs, commodities, options, futures, forex, crypto, and more!

Attending this interactive, three-day conference will help you hone your investing and trading skills with the country’s best fundamental and technical analysts and traders and the most insightful global macro strategists and portfolio managers who have successfully navigated rough waters before.

There may not be a more important time than now for you to attend The MoneyShow Orlando, so I encourage you to register here and join me at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate, June 10-12, 2021!

P.S. To prioritize the safety of all participants, attendance will be capped at 1,500 people and social-distancing protocols consistent with CDC recommendations are in place. Register now while space remains!

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Government

August Monthly

Fear that the spread of the Delta mutation of the covid would disrupt the global economy spurred the unwinding of risk-on positions. Interest rates fell, and the traditional funding currencies:  the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen, strengthened..

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Fear that the spread of the Delta mutation of the covid would disrupt the global economy spurred the unwinding of risk-on positions. Interest rates fell, and the traditional funding currencies:  the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen, strengthened most in July. While major US indices set new record highs, as did Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600, the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index fell 7%.

The preliminary July PMI reports were below expectations in the US, UK, and France.  Japan's composite PMI has been contracting since February 2020.  There has been some re-introduction of social restrictions in parts of Europe.  The UK's "Freedom Day" (July 19), when mask requirements and social restrictions were supposed to be dropped, turned into a caricature as the Prime Minister and Health Minister were in self-quarantine due to exposure, and the number of cases reached the highest level in 5-6 months. 

Given the large number of people in the world that remain unvaccinated, the challenge is that the virus will continue to mutate.  Moreover, even in high-income countries, where vaccines are readily available, and stockpiles exist,  a  substantial minority refuse to be inoculated. This is encouraging the use of more forceful incentives that deny the non-vaccinated access to some social activity in parts of the US and Europe.  In the US, the vaccines have been approved for emergency use only, and broader approval by the FDA could help ease some of the vaccine hesitancy.  Yet, rushing the process would be self-defeating.  An announcement still seems to be at least a couple of months away.  

In some countries, the surge in the virus even where not leading to hospitalizations and fatalities, maybe tempering activity and postponing more "normalization" like returning to offices.   The increase in the contagion has also prompted several companies to postpone plans to have employees return to offices. In other countries, like Australia, the virus and social restrictions are having a more dramatic economic impact.  Its preliminary July PMI crashed to 45.2 from 56.7, the lowest since last May.  Although many countries in East Asia seemed to do well with the initial wave, they have been hard hit by the new mutations.  For some, the recovery already had appeared to be in advanced stages.  

Floods in China, India, Germany, and Belgium add to the economic angst.    A freeze in Brazil sent coffee prices percolating higher.  Wildfires in Canada stopped the downside correction in lumber prices.  While rebuilding is stimulative, in the first instance, the natural disasters could be inflationary as transportation and distribution networks are impacted. 

The market reacted by pushing down nominal and real interest rates.  In late July, the US 10-year inflation-protected note yield (real rate) fell to a record low near minus 1.13%  Ten-year benchmark yields in the US, Europe, Australia, and China were at 4-5 month lows.  Expectations for rate hikes by high-income countries eased, and Beijing surprised investors by cutting reserve requirements by 50 bp (freed up ~$150 bln of liquidity).   

Still, other central banks, like Russia who hiked rates by 100 bp in late July, are pushing forward.  In Latin America, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile are likely candidates for rate hikes in August.  The market anticipates additional rates hikes from the Czech Republic and Hungary.  On the other hand, Turkey's central bank meets under much political pressure to cut rates.  Inflation is not cooperating, and it reached 17.5% in June,  a new two-year high.  Yet, the Turkish lira downside momentum eased, and this alone, in the face of a stronger dollar, meant it was the best performing emerging market currency last month, up about 3.0%.  Its 12% loss year-to-date still makes it the second-worst performing emerging market currency so far this year, behind the Argentine peso's nearly 13% decline.  

The Federal Reserve does not meet in August, but the Jackson Hole symposium (August 26-28) may offer a window into official thinking about the pace and composition of its bond purchases.  Under that scenario, a more formal statement would be provided at the end of the September FOMC meeting (September 21-22). Chair Powell has pledged to give ample notice about its plans to taper.  This means that the initial timing of the beginning of the tapering may be vague by necessity.  Many expect the Fed to begin reducing its bond purchases either later this year or early next year.  

The debt ceiling debate may add another wrinkle.  The debt ceiling waiver expired at the end of July.  There are several different ways that Treasury can buy time.  There are many moving parts, and it is hard to know exactly when Secretary Yellen would run out of maneuvers, but she probably has around two months.  In the past, the uncertainty was reflected in some T-bill sales.  Recall it was the debate over the debt ceiling (the government has already made the commitments or spent the funds and now has to pay for them) that prompted S&P to remove its AAA rating for the US in 2011. 

Meanwhile, Beijing is waging an internal battle to retain control in the technology and payments space.  It has also stepped up its antitrust actions and moved to make it more difficult for internet companies to have IPOs abroad. At the same time, the US threatens to de-list foreign (Chinese) companies if they refuse to allow US regulators to review their financial audits.  This is more than quitting before getting fired, though at the end of July the US announced that concerns over risk disclosures have prompt it to freeze applications for Chinese IPOs and the sale of other securities.  Its efforts to turn the private schools into non-for-profits are driven by Beijing's domestic considerations, but foreign investors--hedge funds, a couple US state pension funds, and provincial pensions in Canada appear to have been collateral damage.  Even the Monetary Authority of Singapore had exposure.

The jump in Chinese yields and the drop in equities that pushed the CSI 300 (an index of large companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges) 21% below the February peak prompted some remedial measures by officials.  They succeeded in steadying the bonds and stock markets, and the yuan recovered from three-month lows as July wound down. However, both the disruption and the salve, the selling of industrial metals, coal, and oil from its strategic reserves, demonstrate the activist state that gives foreign investors reservations about increasing allocations to China.  To draw foreign capital, officials may be tempted to engineer or facility a strong recovery in shares and the yuan.  

Beijing is also meeting resistance from abroad.  Its aggressiveness in the region, including the aerial harassment of Taiwan and rejection of the Arbitration Tribunal at the Hague regarding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (that pushed back against Chinese claims in the South and East China Seas). Over the past few weeks, the situation has escalated. The UK announced it will station two naval vessels in the area.  Japan has promised to defend Taiwan should it be attacked by China.  The US has not been that unequivocal.   The EU has been emboldened.  Latvia became the first EU member to open a representative office of "Taiwan" instead of Taipei.  

Many wargame scenarios are premised on China attacking Taiwan, but this does not seem to be the most likely scenario. Top US military officials have testified before Congress that Beijing wants to have the ability to invade and hold Taiwan within six years based on comments from President Xi to the People's Liberation Army.  Yet, if China senses that the status of Taiwan is truly changing, it could move against the Pratas Island, which is off the east coast of China and the south tip of Taiwan.  It is closer to Hong Kong than Taiwan.  It is an uninhabited atoll with a garrison.  Taking this island would send a signal about its determination, with the costs and risks of invading Taiwan. It is true to the ancient Chinese idiom about killing a chicken scares the monkeys.  

Bannockburn's World Currency Index, a GDP-weighted basket of the top dozen economies, rose fractionally after falling 1% in June.  The two largest components after the dollar are the euro and yuan.  The former slipped by was virtually flat near $1.1860 and the latter softened by less than 0.1 %.  The yen, with about a 7.3% weighting in the basket, was the strongest, gaining about 1.25% against the US dollar.  Sterling was almost eked a 0.5% gain.  The Indian rupee slipped 0.1%, while Brazil's real was the weakest currency in the index, falling by about 4.6% in July.   

The BWCI rose by 6.5% in the last nine months of 2020 after falling by 3.2% in Q1 20 as the pandemic struck and structural dollar shorts and safe-haven flows favored the dollar.  It fell by 1.5% in Q1 21 as if correcting the previous advance.  It rose by 1.1% in Q1.  More so than bilateral exchange rates, the BWCI gives the impression that broadly speaking the dollar's losses from last year are being consolidated more than reversed. 

Dollar:  The greenback's two-month uptrend stalled in the second half of July, sending the momentum traders and late longs to the sidelines. The dollar's pullback had already begun before the FOMC meeting at which the Fed lent support to priors about a tapering announcement in the coming months.  The next opportunity is in late August. The weaker dollar tone that we expect to carry into August could create the conditions that make a short-covering bounce ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium more likely.  Some assistance,  like the moratorium on evictions, ended on July 31, and others, like the federal emergency unemployment compensation (where states continue to participate), are finishing in early September. Meanwhile, the Biden administration appears to see some of its infrastructure initiative approved in a bipartisan way and the other part through a reconciliation mechanism that it can do if there is unanimous support from the Senate Democrats.  Inflation remains elevated, and Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned it may remain so for several more months but still expect the pressure to subside.  The price components of the PMI have eased in the last two reports. There appears to have been some normalization in used car inventories that also reduce the pressure emanating from the one item alone that has accounted for about a third of the monthly increase of late.  

Euro:   The leg lower that began in late May from around $1.2265 extended more than we had expected and did not find support until it approached $1.1750 in the second half of July.  A trough appears to have been forged, and the euro finished near the month's highs.  Technical indicators favor a further recovery in August.  Overcoming the band of resistance in the $1.1950-$1.2000 shift the focus back to the highs.  The low for longer stance by the ECB may be bullish for European stocks and bonds.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reached new record highs in late July.   Bond prices are near their highest levels since February-March.  The IMF raised its 2021 growth forecast for the euro area to 4.6%from the 4.3% projection in April and 4.3% next year from 3.8%.  The economy seemed to be accelerating in Q3, but the contagion and new social restrictions may slow the momentum.  Inflation is elevated about the ECB's new symmetrical 2% inflation target, but it pre-emptively indicated it would resist the temptation of prematurely tightening financial conditions.  The debate at the ECB does not seem about near-term policy as much as the commitment and thresholds for future action.  

 

(July 30,  indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)

 

Spot: $1.1870 ($1.1860)

Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1885 ($1.1950) 

One-month forward  $1.1880 ($1.1865)    One-month implied vol  5.3%  (5.6%)    

 

 

Japanese Yen: The correlation of the exchange rate with the 10-year US yield is at its highest level in a little more than a year (~0.65, 60-day rolling correlation at the level of differences).  The correlation of equities (S&P 500) and the exchange rate is in the unusual situation of being inverse since early this year.  In early July, it was the most inverse (~-0.34) in nine years but recovered to finish the month almost flat. The yen rose by about 1.4% in July, offsetting the June decline of the same magnitude. Its 5.7% loss year-to-date is the most among the major currencies and the second weakest in the region after the Thai Baht's nearly 9% loss. The JPY110.60-JPY110.70 represents a near-term cap. The JPY109.00 area should offer support, and a break would target JPY108.25-JPY108.50.   The extension of social restrictions in the face of rising covid cases is delaying the anticipated second-half recovery.  The preliminary composite PMI fell to a six-month low in July of 47.7.  

 

Spot: JPY109.85 (JPY111.10)      

Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY109.85 (JPY110.70)     

One-month forward JPY109.80 (JPY111.05)    One-month implied vol  5.4% (5.4%)  

 

 

British Pound:  Sterling reversed lower after recording a three-year high on June 1 near $1.4250 and did not look back.  It dipped briefly below $1.38 for the first time since mid-April on the back of the hawkish Fed on June 16 to finish July at new highs for the month and above the downtrend line off the early June highs.   A convincing move back above $1.40 would confirm a low is in place and a resumption of the bull move, for which we target $1.4350-$1.4375 in Q4.  The postponement of the economy-wide re-opening until the middle of July, and a central bank looking past the uptick in CPI above the 2% medium-term target, weighed on sentiment.  The central bank will update its economic forecasts in August, and both growth and inflation projections likely will be raised. The furlough program ends in September, and it may take a few months for a clear picture of the labor market to emerge.  Nevertheless, the market has begun pricing in a rate hike for H1 22.  

  

Spot: $1.3905 ($1.3830)   

Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3930 ($1.3930) 

One-month forward $1.3910 ($1.3835)   One-month implied vol 6.6% (6.5%)

  

 

Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar reached its best level in six years in early June (~$0.8333 or CAD1.20) but has trended lower amid profit-taking and the broad gains in the US dollar.  The usual drivers of the exchange rate:  risk appetites, commodities, and rate differentials were not helpful guides recently.  Canada has become among the most vaccinated countries, and the central bank was sufficiently confident in the economic outlook to continue to slow its bond purchases at the July meeting despite losing full-time positions each month in Q2. Speculators in the futures market have slashed the net long position from nearly 50k contracts (each CAD100k) to less than 13k contracts in late July.  The downside correction in the Canadian dollar appears to have largely run its course, and we anticipate a better August after the heavier performance in July.  Our initial target is around CAD1.2250-CAD1.2300.  

 

Spot: CAD1.2475 (CAD 1.2400) 

Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CAD1.2435 (CAD1.2325)

One-month forward CAD1.2480 (CAD1.2405)    One-month implied vol  6.8%  (6.5%) 

 

 

Australian Dollar:  Since peaking in late February slightly above $0.8000, the Australian dollar has trended lower and by in late July briefly dipped below $0.7300, posting a nearly 9% loss over the past five months. The 50-day moving average ~$0.7570) fell below the 200-day moving average (~$0.7600) for the first time since June 2020, illustrating the downtrend after the strong recovery from the low near $0.5500 when the pandemic first stuck.  The combination of a low vaccination rate and the highly contagious Delta variant forced new extended lockdowns for Sydney and social restrictions that have sapped the economy's strength.  It will likely slow the central bank's exit from the extraordinary emergency measures.  Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to boost its weekly bond-buying from A$5 bln to at least A$6 bln.  A convincing break of $0.7300 could open the door for a return toward $0.7000, but we suspect the five-month downtrend is over and anticipate a recovery toward $0.7550 over the next several weeks.  

 

Spot:  $0.7345 ($0.7495)       

Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7425 ($0.7610)     

One-month forward  $0.7350 ($0.7500)     One-month implied vol 8.9  (8.5%)   

 

 

Mexican Peso:  The dollar chopped higher against the peso in July and reached a high near MXN20.25 on July 21. It trended lower and, in late July, fell below the seven-week trendline support near MXN19.90.  After finishing June less than 0.1% weaker, the greenback lost about 0.4% against the peso in July, which was the fifth consecutive month without a gain.  The other notable LATAM currencies were the weakest three emerging market currencies (Chilean peso ~-4.1%, Colombian peso ~-4%, and the Brazilian real ~-3.8%).  If the upper end of the dollar's range has held,  a break of MXN19.80 may warn a test on the lower end of the range (~MXN19.50-MXN19.60).  The 5.75% year-over-year CPI for the first half of July and the highest core inflation for early July in more than 20-years keep expectations for another rate hike intact when Banxico meets on August 12.  The market has another hike priced in for the September 30 meeting as well.  The dispute with the US over measuring domestic content for auto production under USMCA could undermine Mexico's role in the continental division of labor, but instead, producers in Mexico may choose to pay the WTO auto tariff standard of 2.5%.  The IMF's latest economic forecasts revised the projection for Mexican growth this year to 6.3% from the April projection of 5%.  

 

Spot: MXN19.87 (MXN19.95)  

Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast  MXN19.94 (MXN19.97)  

One-month forward  MXN19.95 (MXN20.02)     One-month implied vol 10.5% (10.7%)

  

 

Chinese Yuan: The dollar spent most of July within the trading range that had emerged in late June found roughly between CNY6.45 and CNY6.4950. The range was maintained even after the PBOC unexpectedly cut reserve requirements by 50 bp (announced July 9). However, Beijing's more aggressive enforcement of antitrust, discouragement IPOs abroad, making private education non-for-profit without foreign investment triggered sales of Chinese shares. It helped lift the dollar in late July to around CNY6.5150, its highest level in three months and just shy of the 200-day moving average.  The pursuit of domestic policy objectives appears to be putting at risk strategic goals.  A drying up of capital inflows from spooked foreign investors may have slow efforts to liberalize capital outflows that could eventually lead to making the yuan convertible.  At the same time, China's actions give a timely example of what holds the yuan back from a significant role in the world economy and why a technology solution (e.g., digital yuan) will not suffice.  As the dollar briefly traded above the upper end of its recent range in July, the risk is that it slips through the lower-end range, which could spur a move toward CNY6.40.  

 

Spot: CNY6.4615 (CNY6.4570)

Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CNY6.4555 (CNY6.4360) 

One-month forward CNY6.4780 (CNY6.4815)    One-month implied vol  4.0% (4.7%)

 

Disclaimer 



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Government

World’s Largest Pension Fund Slashes US Treasury Exposure By Record Amount

World’s Largest Pension Fund Slashes US Treasury Exposure By Record Amount

The world’s largest pension fund, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, made a record cut to the weighting of Treasuries in its portfolio last fiscal year,…

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World's Largest Pension Fund Slashes US Treasury Exposure By Record Amount

The world's largest pension fund, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, made a record cut to the weighting of Treasuries in its portfolio last fiscal year, sparking a global debt selloff.

GPIF slashed it US government bonds and bills to 35% of foreign debt holdings in the 12 months ended March, from 47% previously, according to an analysis by Bloomberg of the latest data.

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, that level of exposure is below FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index's 38% weight in Treasuries (so GPIF is actually underweight USTs on a global basis).

The giant Japanese fund shifted into mostly European sovereigns with France, Italy, and Germany benefiting the most...

Source: Bloomberg

GPIF “substantially adjusted” allocations to bonds denominated in the dollar, euro and pound as an estimated tracking error was relatively high in the first half after the pandemic drove up market volatility, Eiji Ueda, the fund’s chief investment officer, wrote in the report.

Which helps explain overall Japanese official holdings of USTs over the past year...

Source: Bloomberg

GPIF's decision follows a longer-term trend evident in other major nations as 'dedollarization' accelerates...

Source: Bloomberg

As with many other aspects of Japanese culture, "GPIF has a large influence over the investment decisions of other pension funds in Japan,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “What it does has an impact in the market.”

However, Sera suggests a lot of the selling was because hedged Treasuries were unattractive: “Current yield levels don’t compensate investors enough to take foreign-exchange risks,”

Something that is now very much incorrect as FX-hedged Japanese investors are getting the best yields since 2014...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly as Morgan Stanley pointed out, we think that it is important to avoid the trap of forcibly fitting a narrative to lower yields, a trap investors dealt with merely four months ago:

Treasury yields rose sharply in March, largely due to selling from Japanese investors, based on their fiscal year-end considerations.

Yet, most investors mistook the rise in yields as validation for a super-hot economy, and the consensus bought into the idea that 10-year yields were headed above 2%. We cautioned investors that yields had overshot relative to the economic reality.

Over the coming weeks, economic data in the US couldn’t keep up with unrealistic expectations, and 10-year yields started grinding lower.

Source: Bloomberg

In other words, GPIF's decision to dump US Treasuries fooled the world into believing the recovery was accelerating... But of course, now that yields are collapsing again, the asset gatherers and commission-rakers conveniently brush it off as "QE-driven distortion"...

Does GPIF know something the rest of the world doesn't about just how 'transitory' inflation is?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/02/2021 - 15:16

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Government

Stealth QE Is Over: Treasury Projects Adding $350BN In Cash By Dec 31, Reversing “Liquidity Tsunami”

Stealth QE Is Over: Treasury Projects Adding $350BN In Cash By Dec 31, Reversing "Liquidity Tsunami"

Three months ago, at the start of May when the Treasury was busy spending hundreds of billions of cash parked in the Fed’s Treasury General..

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Stealth QE Is Over: Treasury Projects Adding $350BN In Cash By Dec 31, Reversing "Liquidity Tsunami"

Three months ago, at the start of May when the Treasury was busy spending hundreds of billions of cash parked in the Fed's Treasury General Account in a form of stealth QE, the US government surprised markets when it announced that it expected to release just $100BN in cash in May and June, bringing its total cash balance to $800BN by the end of June, and then just another $50BN lower three months later, or $750BN at the end of Sept. Additionally, the Treasury assumed a cash balance of approximately $450 billion at the expiration of the debt limit suspension on July 31 based on expected outflows under its cash management policies. And while the Treasury caveat that "the actual cash balance on July 31 may vary from this assumption based on changes to expected outflows in that period" its estimate was surprisingly spot on, with the latest Daily Treasury Statement showing $459 billion as of the end of July, not far from its forecast.

And as a reminder, on Sunday the debt ceiling was reinstated after a two-year break, and lawmakers have not yet formulated a concrete plan to avert default, which the Congressional Budget Office warned could come in October or November once Treasury exhausts special measures and its cash pile. It will now be up to Congress to extend this token limit in the next few months. We don't expect it to be an issue especially in the aftermath of the August 2011 debt ceiling debacle.

So fast forward to today when the Treasury released its latest Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates which showed that the Treasury plans on borrowing almost $1.4 trillion in the second half of calendar 2021, it hopes to end the year with $800 billion in cash - well below the $1.7 trillion in cash it held at the end of 2020 - and last but not least, assumes that a debt limit suspension or increase will be enacted.

First, looking at the just completed quarter, the Treasury reminds us that it previously estimated privately-held net marketable borrowing of $463 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $800 billion. The actual numbers were $319 billion in debt issuance, a $143 billion decrease in borrowing from the previous estimate primarily from an increase in receipts and a decrease in expenditures, offset by the increase in the end-of-June cash balance, which were $852BN vs the Treasury estimate of $800 billion. The slower pace of debt issuance may go a long way to explaining why yields plunged as much as they did in a quarter that saw far less supply than many had expected.

What about the current and future quarters? Here are the details:

  • During the July – September 2021 quarter, Treasury now expects to borrow $673 billion in marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $750 billion. This borrowing estimate is $148 billion lower than announced in May 2021, primarily due to the higher beginning of quarter balance and lower outlays.
  • During the October – December 2021 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $703 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $800 billion.
  • The end-of-September and December cash balances assume enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase.
  • These borrowing estimates are based upon current law and do not include any assumptions for the impact of additional legislation that may be passed.

The Treasury's Sources and Uses table is below:

Source: Treasury Sources and Uses table

In other words, the government expects to borrow almost $1.4 trillion in the second half assuming lawmakers raise or suspend the newly reinstated debt limit, as money continues to support coronavirus relief even before the impact of additional economic programs being considered by Congress. As for the cash, what for the past six months had been one huge "stealth QE", as the Treasury injected $1.1 trillion in cash into the economy - and the Fed's reverse repo facility - it's about to go in reverse with the Treasury now expecting cash balances to rise by almost $300 billion to $750 billion through the end of Q3 from today's $459 billion, and another $50BN by the end of the year, pushing the net cash balance to $800 billion by year end.

Visually, this is how Stealth QE is expected to end and go into reverse, assuming of course that the US will find a way to extend (and pretend) the debt ceiling limitation, which after much theatrical posturing, it will.

Today's data merely underscores what we said three months ago when we said that "the liquidity tsunami is over" and since the Treasury will now be actively rebuilding its cash balance over the next 5 months, not only is the stealth QE over but it is about to go into reverse.

A much more detailed picture of the Treasury's funding needs will be unveiled on Wednesday when the Treasury releases additional details about its borrowing plans. As Bloomberg notes, for the first time in more than five years, the Treasury in coming months will be scaling back its mammoth quarterly sales of notes and bonds according to  Wall Street dealers - a shift so large it’s likely to more than counter the Federal Reserve’s potential pullback in purchases. While most dealers expect no change in the $126 billion size of recent refundings, many see officials setting the stage for a reduction in November. It is this surprising decline in net issuance that many speculate could be behind the striking drop in yields in recent months as there is not nearly enough supply to meet demand. That too will change, however, once the Fed begins tapering and certainly once QE is over.... although we aren't holding our breath.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/02/2021 - 15:37

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