Government
CDC Admission Implicates Air Force One
CDC Admission Implicates Air Force One
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CDC Admission Implicates Air Force One; Aerosols Can Spread COVID, Despite HEPA Filters
Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Passengers Aboard Air Force One Might Have Become Infected With COVID
WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 5, 2020) - The CDC's admission that COVID can be spread by aerosols which linger in the air, and can travel well beyond 6 feet from space to space, as well as be circulated through a ventilation system, lends credence to the suggestions that some of those closest to President Trump who have contracted COVID might have become infected aboard Air Force One, especially since many passengers reportedly refused to wear masks, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf.
The now outdated guideline - that maintaining a 6-foot separation provided adequate protection against the transmission of this highly contagious disease - has long been outdated by new research, and in any event was never realistic, says Banzhaf, based upon his expertise and expert testimony in dealing with particles of tobacco smoke which many used to claim likewise did not spread, and allegedly could not cause harm beyond a few feet from the smoker.
The CDC was not the only source of confusion if not outright deceit, suggests Banzhaf, pointing to the airline industry and its defenders.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis recently echoed claims by airlines that the HEPA filters and other measures make flying safe during the pandemic, but new evidence of actual transmissions in flight caused by airborne coronavirus particles, plus lessons learned before smoking on planes was banned, show that flying can still cause infection with this deadly coronavirus, says Banzhaf, the man behind the ban on smoking about commercial carriers.
For example, 187 passengers and 6 crew on a TUI AG flight from Zante to Cardiff were quarantined after at least 16 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed after an August 25th flight.
Spreading The Coronavirus To Other Passengers
A CDC study of two Korean flights showed that even asymptomatic passengers could and did spread the coronavirus to other passengers even though each passenger was given an N95 mask, and staff members followed strict infection-control procedures at the airport and in the air overseen by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Also, Qingyan Chen, a professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, cited two other international flights: on the first a single passenger infected 14 people while flying from London to Hanoi. There was also transmission of the deadly virus on a second flight from Singapore to Hangzhou, even though all passengers were wearing face masks.
Experts have also pointed out that boarding and deplaning – when the plane’s ventilation system isn’t even running, and people are unable to stay distanced from one another – is one of the riskiest parts of the airline travel process, as is going through security and waiting in the departure lounge where ventilation may likewise be very poor.
So, while airlines are increasingly touting what they call their superb ventilation system and HEPA filters in an effort to convince passengers that it is safe to fly despite coronavirus particles released into the air by other passengers, they made virtually the same false claims about microscopic tobacco smoke particles back in the days when smoking was permitted aboard commercial flights, notes Banzhaf.
But even once smoking during flights was restricted to small smoking sections, and the percentage of smokers shrank, passengers in the no-smoking section most distant from a smoker would still know the minute anyone lit up, despite the so-called “superb” ventilation system and “hospital style” high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters, because the minute particles of tobacco smoke would drift rapidly throughout the airplane, says Banzhaf, whose legal actions first required airlines to provide no-smoking sections, and eventually led to a ban on smoking on all flights.
Airline Ventilation Systems Did Not Protect Passengers
Obviously airline ventilation systems with HEPA filters - presumably including Air Force One - did not protect passengers from inhaling drifting particles of smoke, something which was undeniably clear to any passenger with a sense of smell.
If the coronavirus had an odor, few people would fly, or want to be near a possible COVID carrier, because they would have the same irrefutable proof that – as with tobacco smoke particles – others are being exposed to deadly airborne particles, he argues.
Many media reports, and videos of actual flights, show that enforcement of airline requests that passengers wear masks is spotty to non-existent, and there still is no federal law or regulation requiring passengers to wear marks. Masks were not required, and reportedly were rarely worn, aboard Air Force One and the smaller helicopters in which the President flew with many other guests.
The same problem of lack of enforcement occurred years earlier with regard to smoking, even though federal law restricted or later prohibited smoking aboard flights, because airlines were reluctant to enforce the requirements upon passengers who objected, says Banzhaf.
If airlines didn’t even enforce a requirement imposed by federal law, we certainly can’t expect them to do so – in effect, bet our lives on it – when there are no federal rules, much less laws, requiring masks on planes, suggests Banzhaf.
Moreover, he notes, passengers are of course permitted to remove their masks while drinking or eating (even food or beverages they brought on board where the airline doesn’t serve any), and there is no way to insure that passengers do not remove their masks in the restrooms, thereby potentially infecting all subsequent restroom users with a deadly virus which can linger in the air for hours according to recent research findings.
Irresponsible Behavior Of Passengers
Indeed, a new study shows that more than 10% of adults do not even wash their hands after using a restroom. So, in addition to potentially infecting other passengers with germs when they return to their airplane seats, this irresponsible behavior suggests that they are even less likely than other passengers to wear masks when in an airplane restroom, suggests Banzhaf.
Professor Banzhaf also notes that, despite claims about how often the ventilation system exchanges the air, airlines in the past would frequently reduce the amount of fresh air introduced into the cabin – something the passengers could not readily detect, and often without even telling the flight attendants – because it saved them money, since there is an added cost of bringing in fresh air from the outside.
Thus, says Banzhaf, there is no guarantee that the same substantial reduction in the quality of air in the cabin from failing to introduce sufficient outside air into the ventilation system – and in passenger safety and health – will not occur now, especially when major carriers are desperate to save money, and there are no federal laws, rules, or regulations preventing or even restricting this potentially deadly cost-saving measure.
Air Force One Passangers
Theoretical studies, which now confirm actual experience, show that a single airline passenger with COVID-19 – even if he is displaying no symptoms – can infect other passengers several rows in front of as well as behind him, despite the vaunted airplane ventilation system.
Mounting evidence – including “super-spreading” events in which multiple choir singers, restaurant diners or dance students were infected – suggests, as the CDC just admitted, that the virus can be and is transmitted through microscopic droplets known as aerosols that can float in the air, potentially for hours, as well as larger particles which do not remain in the air as long.
Social-Distancing Is Insufficient
Indeed, there have been well documented events in which the virus has actually traveled as much as 26 feet (in a meat-packing plant) and 14 feet (in a well ventilated restaurant).
So, even if it were somehow possible to maintain a 6-foot social-distance separation between passengers – not only during the flight, but also during the more crowded boarding and disembarking process – it would be woefully insufficient to provide even minimal protection from possible death or disability from COVID-19, argues Banzhaf.
He asks, by way of analogy, how many people would be willing to walk through a room filled with deadly king cobras – whose striking range is said by experts to be no greater than 6 feet – if they were guaranteed to come no closer than 6 – or even 14 – feet from any snake.
An example of just how dangerous flying can be is the experience of a virologist and epidemiologist who, because he was all too well aware of the risks of COVID-19, was very careful to wear a mask and gloves, and to wipe down all the surfaces which he touched, on a single recent flight.
He nevertheless contracted COVID-19 just days after his flight, and believes that – because of the many precautions he was so careful to take – it had to come from airborne virus particles which entered through his eyes during the flight.
This is just the kind of evidence which has convinced Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease experts, not to risk his life by flying, probably not until there is a proven vaccine.
So, “don’t bet your life on airline HEPA hype,” Professor Banzhaf warns.
The post CDC Admission Implicates Air Force One appeared first on ValueWalk.
Government
Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine
Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A…
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Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A Harvard Medical School professor who refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine has been terminated, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.
Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist, was fired by Mass General Brigham in November 2021 over noncompliance with the hospital’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate after his requests for exemptions from the mandate were denied, according to one document. Mr. Kulldorff was also placed on leave by Harvard Medical School (HMS) because his appointment as professor of medicine there “depends upon” holding a position at the hospital, another document stated.
Mr. Kulldorff asked HMS in late 2023 how he could return to his position and was told he was being fired.
“You would need to hold an eligible appointment with a Harvard-affiliated institution for your HMS academic appointment to continue,” Dr. Grace Huang, dean for faculty affairs, told the epidemiologist and biostatistician.
She said the lack of an appointment, combined with college rules that cap leaves of absence at two years, meant he was being terminated.
Mr. Kulldorff disclosed the firing for the first time this month.
“While I can’t comment on the specifics due to employment confidentiality protections that preclude us from doing so, I can confirm that his employment agreement was terminated November 10, 2021,” a spokesperson for Brigham and Women’s Hospital told The Epoch Times via email.
Mass General Brigham granted just 234 exemption requests out of 2,402 received, according to court filings in an ongoing case that alleges discrimination.
The hospital said previously, “We received a number of exemption requests, and each request was carefully considered by a knowledgeable team of reviewers.”
“A lot of other people received exemptions, but I did not,” Mr. Kulldorff told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Kulldorff was originally hired by HMS but switched departments in 2015 to work at the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which is part of Mass General Brigham and affiliated with HMS.
“Harvard Medical School has affiliation agreements with several Boston hospitals which it neither owns nor operationally controls,” an HMS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “Hospital-based faculty, such as Mr. Kulldorff, are employed by one of the affiliates, not by HMS, and require an active hospital appointment to maintain an academic appointment at Harvard Medical School.”
HMS confirmed that some faculty, who are tenured or on the tenure track, do not require hospital appointments.
Natural Immunity
Before the COVID-19 vaccines became available, Mr. Kulldorff contracted COVID-19. He was hospitalized but eventually recovered.
That gave him a form of protection known as natural immunity. According to a number of studies, including papers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, natural immunity is better than the protection bestowed by vaccines.
Other studies have found that people with natural immunity face a higher risk of problems after vaccination.
Mr. Kulldorff expressed his concerns about receiving a vaccine in his request for a medical exemption, pointing out a lack of data for vaccinating people who suffer from the same issue he does.
“I already had superior infection-acquired immunity; and it was risky to vaccinate me without proper efficacy and safety studies on patients with my type of immune deficiency,” Mr. Kulldorff wrote in an essay.
In his request for a religious exemption, he highlighted an Israel study that was among the first to compare protection after infection to protection after vaccination. Researchers found that the vaccinated had less protection than the naturally immune.
“Having had COVID disease, I have stronger longer lasting immunity than those vaccinated (Gazit et al). Lacking scientific rationale, vaccine mandates are religious dogma, and I request a religious exemption from COVID vaccination,” he wrote.
Both requests were denied.
Mr. Kulldorff is still unvaccinated.
“I had COVID. I had it badly. So I have infection-acquired immunity. So I don’t need the vaccine,” he told The Epoch Times.
Dissenting Voice
Mr. Kulldorff has been a prominent dissenting voice during the COVID-19 pandemic, countering messaging from the government and many doctors that the COVID-19 vaccines were needed, regardless of prior infection.
He spoke out in an op-ed in April 2021, for instance, against requiring people to provide proof of vaccination to attend shows, go to school, and visit restaurants.
“The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does. Covid vaccines are essential for older, high-risk people and their caretakers and advisable for many others. But those who’ve been infected are already immune,” he wrote at the time.
Mr. Kulldorff later co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for focused protection of people at high risk while removing restrictions for younger, healthy people.
Harsh restrictions such as school closures “will cause irreparable damage” if not lifted, the declaration stated.
The declaration drew criticism from Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who became the head of the CDC, among others.
In a competing document, Dr. Walensky and others said that “relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed” and that “uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population.”
“Those who are pushing these vaccine mandates and vaccine passports—vaccine fanatics, I would call them—to me they have done much more damage during this one year than the anti-vaxxers have done in two decades,” Mr. Kulldorff later said in an EpochTV interview. “I would even say that these vaccine fanatics, they are the biggest anti-vaxxers that we have right now. They’re doing so much more damage to vaccine confidence than anybody else.”
Surveys indicate that people have less trust now in the CDC and other health institutions than before the pandemic, and data from the CDC and elsewhere show that fewer people are receiving the new COVID-19 vaccines and other shots.
Support
The disclosure that Mr. Kulldorff was fired drew criticism of Harvard and support for Mr. Kulldorff.
The termination “is a massive and incomprehensible injustice,” Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, an ethics expert who was fired from the University of California–Irvine School of Medicine for not getting a COVID-19 vaccine because he had natural immunity, said on X.
“The academy is full of people who declined vaccines—mostly with dubious exemptions—and yet Harvard fires the one professor who happens to speak out against government policies.” Dr. Vinay Prasad, an epidemiologist at the University of California–San Francisco, wrote in a blog post. “It looks like Harvard has weaponized its policies and selectively enforces them.”
A petition to reinstate Mr. Kulldorff has garnered more than 1,800 signatures.
Some other doctors said the decision to let Mr. Kulldorff go was correct.
“Actions have consequence,” Dr. Alastair McAlpine, a Canadian doctor, wrote on X. He said Mr. Kulldorff had “publicly undermine[d] public health.”
International
“Extreme Events”: US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In “Large Excess Over Trend”
"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"
Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021…
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Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021 and 2022 among 15-44 year-olds "in large excess over trend," marking jumps of 5.6% and 7.9% respectively vs. a rise of 1.7% in 2020, according to a new preprint study from deep-dive research firm, Phinance Technologies.
Extreme Events
The report, which relies on data from the CDC, paints a troubling picture.
"We show a rise in excess mortality from neoplasms reported as underlying cause of death, which started in 2020 (1.7%) and accelerated substantially in 2021 (5.6%) and 2022 (7.9%). The increase in excess mortality in both 2021 (Z-score of 11.8) and 2022 (Z-score of 16.5) are highly statistically significant (extreme events)," according to the authors.
That said, co-author, David Wiseman, PhD (who has 86 publications to his name), leaves the cause an open question - suggesting it could either be a "novel phenomenon," Covid-19, or the Covid-19 vaccine.
Cancer deaths in US in 2021 & 2022 in large excess over trend for 15-44 year-olds as extreme events. A novel phenomenon? C19? lockdowns? C19 vaccines? Honored to participate in this work. #CDC where are you? @DowdEdwardhttps://t.co/iUV5oQiWCW pic.twitter.com/uytzaIvvor
— David Wiseman PhD, MRPharmS (@AdhesionsOrg) March 12, 2024
"The results indicate that from 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the US," reads the report.
The authors suggest that the cause may be the result of "an unexpected rise in the incidence of rapidly growing fatal cancers," and/or "a reduction in survival in existing cancer cases."
They also address the possibility that "access to utilization of cancer screening and treatment" may be a factor - the notion that pandemic-era lockdowns resulted in fewer visits to the doctor. Also noted is that "Cancers tend to be slowly-developing diseases with remarkably stable death rates and only small variations over time," which makes "any temporal association between a possible explanatory factor (such as COVID-19, the novel COVID-19 vaccines, or other factor(s)) difficult to establish."
That said, a ZeroHedge review of the CDC data reveals that it does not provide information on duration of illness prior to death - so while it's not mentioned in the preprint, it can't rule out so-called 'turbo cancers' - reportedly rapidly developing cancers, the existence of which has been largely anecdotal (and widely refuted by the usual suspects).
While the Phinance report is extremely careful not to draw conclusions, researcher "Ethical Skeptic" kicked the barn door open in a Thursday post on X - showing a strong correlation between "cancer incidence & mortality" coinciding with the rollout of the Covid mRNA vaccine.
The argument is over.
— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) March 14, 2024
The Covid mRNA Vaxx has cause a sizeable 2021 inflection, and now novel-trend elevation in terms of both cancer incidence & mortality.
Now you know who the liars were all along.
????Incidence = 14.8% excess
????UCoD Mortality = 5.3% excess (lags Incidence) pic.twitter.com/uwN9GMrHl1
Phinance principal Ed Dowd commented on the post, noting that "Cancer is suddenly an accelerating growth industry!"
????Indeed it is…Cancer is suddenly an accelerating growth industry! @EthicalSkeptic provides a chart below showing US Cancer treatment in constant dollars with a current growth rate of 14.8% (6.3% New CAGR) versus long term trend of 1.78% CAGR or $33.8 billion in excess cancer… https://t.co/RIn4R2YZZ7
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) March 14, 2024
Continued:
As a former portfolio manager of of a $14 billion Large Cap Growth Equity portfolio I can definitively say Cancer treatments and the Disabilities have become growth industries that both have inflection points coincidental to the mRNA vaccine rollouts in 2021.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) March 14, 2024
Chart 1 from… pic.twitter.com/TCt4X1plnM
Bottom line - hard data is showing alarming trends, which the CDC and other agencies have a requirement to explore and answer truthfully - and people are asking #WhereIsTheCDC.
We aren't holding our breath.
Experts are sounding the alarm on a spike in cancer diagnosis worldwide. It is still a mystery. @DowdEdward from Phinance Technologies has also been sounding the alarm for months.
— dr.ir. Carla Peeters (@CarlaPeeters3) March 15, 2024
We are facing a dramatic degradation of the human immune system https://t.co/CPnwP3Oj9G
Wiseman, meanwhile, points out that Pfizer and several other companies are making "significant investments in cancer drugs, post COVID."
Pfizer among several companies making significant investments in cancer drugs, post COVID. @DowdEdward @Kevin_McKernan @JesslovesMJK @niki_kyrylenko https://t.co/nefEZYLW1o https://t.co/r505Sbbcq4
— David Wiseman PhD, MRPharmS (@AdhesionsOrg) March 15, 2024
Phinance
We've featured several of Phinance's self-funded deep dives into pandemic data that nobody else is doing. If you'd like to support them, click here.
List of our projects following disturbing tends in deaths, disabilities and absences.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) March 16, 2024
Link to projects at bottom.
✅ V-Damage Project
✅ Excess Mortality Project
✅ US Disabilities Project
✅ US BLS Absence rates Project
✅ US Cause of Death Project
✅ UK Cause of Death…
Government
Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election
Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Young adults are more…
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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Young adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them.
This is with reason, and it’s likely to decide the election.
Rough Years and the Most Pessimism Ever
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on The Rough Years That Turned Gen Z Into America’s Most Disillusioned Voters.
Young adults in Generation Z—those born in 1997 or after—have emerged from the pandemic feeling more disillusioned than any living generation before them, according to long-running surveys and interviews with dozens of young people around the country. They worry they’ll never make enough money to attain the security previous generations have achieved, citing their delayed launch into adulthood, an impenetrable housing market and loads of student debt.
And they’re fed up with policymakers from both parties.
Washington is moving closer to passing legislation that would ban or force the sale of TikTok, a platform beloved by millions of young people in the U.S. Several young people interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said they spend hours each day on the app and use it as their main source of news.
“It’s funny how they quickly pass this bill about this TikTok situation. What about schools that are getting shot up? We’re not going to pass a bill about that?” Gaddie asked. “No, we’re going to worry about TikTok and that just shows you where their head is…. I feel like they don’t really care about what’s going on with humanity.”
Gen Z’s widespread gloominess is manifesting in unparalleled skepticism of Washington and a feeling of despair that leaders of either party can help. Young Americans’ entire political memories are subsumed by intense partisanship and warnings about the looming end of everything from U.S. democracy to the planet. When the darkest days of the pandemic started to end, inflation reached 40-year highs. The right to an abortion was overturned. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East raged.
Dissatisfaction is pushing some young voters to third-party candidates in this year’s presidential race and causing others to consider staying home on Election Day or leaving the top of the ticket blank. While young people typically vote at lower rates, a small number of Gen Z voters could make the difference in the election, which four years ago was decided by tens of thousands of votes in several swing states.
Roughly 41 million Gen Z Americans—ages 18 to 27—will be eligible to vote this year, according to Tufts University.
Gen Z is among the most liberal segments of the electorate, according to surveys, but recent polling shows them favoring Biden by only a slim margin. Some are unmoved by those who warn that a vote against Biden is effectively a vote for Trump, arguing that isn’t enough to earn their support.
Confidence
When asked if they had confidence in a range of public institutions, Gen Z’s faith in them was generally below that of the older cohorts at the same point in their lives.
One-third of Gen Z Americans described themselves as conservative, according to NORC’s 2022 General Social Survey. That is a larger share identifying as conservative than when millennials, Gen X and baby boomers took the survey when they were the same age, though some of the differences were small and within the survey’s margin of error.
More young people now say they find it hard to have hope for the world than at any time since at least 1976, according to a University of Michigan survey that has tracked public sentiment among 12th-graders for nearly five decades. Young people today are less optimistic than any generation in decades that they’ll get a professional job or surpass the success of their parents, the long-running survey has found. They increasingly believe the system is stacked against them and support major changes to the way the country operates.
Gen Z future Outcome
“It’s the starkest difference I’ve documented in 20 years of doing this research,” said Twenge, the author of the book “Generations.” The pandemic, she said, amplified trends among Gen Z that have existed for years: chronic isolation, a lack of social interaction and a propensity to spend large amounts of time online.
A 2020 study found past epidemics have left a lasting impression on young people around the world, creating a lack of confidence in political institutions and their leaders. The study, which analyzed decades of Gallup World polling from dozens of countries, found the decline in trust among young people typically persists for two decades.
Young people are more likely than older voters to have a pessimistic view of the economy and disapprove of Biden’s handling of inflation, according to the recent Journal poll. Among people under 30, Biden leads Trump by 3 percentage points, 35% to 32%, with 14% undecided and the remaining shares going to third-party candidates, including 10% to independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Economic Reality
Gen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.
Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.
The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.
This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.
Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar
Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.
For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Generational Homeownership Rates
Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List
The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report
Those struggling with rent are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.
The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.
On Average Everything is Great
Average it up, and things look pretty good. This is why we have seen countless stories attempting to explain why people should be happy.
Krugman Blames Partisanship
With the recent rise in consumer sentiment, time to revisit this excellent Briefing Book paper. On reflection, I'd do it a bit differently; same basic conclusion, but I think partisan asymmetry explains even more of the remaining low numbers 1/ https://t.co/4lqm7X4472
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) February 17, 2024
OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.
However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.
OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.
However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.
This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.
Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans
Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.
For discussion, please see Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap
The study did not break things down by home owners vs renters, but I strongly suspect most of the BNPL use is by renters.
What About Jobs?
Another seemingly strong jobs headline falls apart on closer scrutiny. The massive divergence between jobs and employment continued into February.
Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.
Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2023
-
Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,602,000
-
Employment Level: +144,000
-
Full Time Employment: -284,000
For more details of the weakening labor markets, please see Jobs Up 275,000 Employment Down 184,000
CPI Hot Again
CPI Data from the BLS, chart by Mish.
For discussion of the CPI inflation data for February, please see CPI Hot Again, Rent Up at Least 0.4 Percent for 30 Straight Months
Also note the Producer Price Index (PPI) Much Hotter Than Expected in February
Major Economic Cracks
There are economic cracks in spending, cracks in employment, and cracks in delinquencies.
But there are no cracks in the CPI. It’s coming down much slower than expected. And the PPI appears to have bottomed.
Add it up: Inflation + Recession = Stagflation.
Election Impact
In 2020, younger voters turned out in the biggest wave in history. And they voted for Biden.
Younger voters are not as likely to vote in 2024, and they are less likely to vote for Biden.
Millions of voters will not vote for either Trump or Biden. Net, this will impact Biden more. The base will not decide the election, but the Trump base is far more energized than the Biden base.
If Biden signs a TikTok ban, that alone could tip the election.
If No Labels ever gets its act together, I suspect it will siphon more votes from Biden than Trump. But many will just sit it out.
“We’re just kind of over it,” Noemi Peña, 20, a Tucson, Ariz., resident who works in a juice bar, said of her generation’s attitude toward politics. “We don’t even want to hear about it anymore.” Peña said she might not vote because she thinks it won’t change anything and “there’s just gonna be more fighting.” Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes.
The Journal noted nearly one-third of voters under 30 have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, a higher number than all older voters. Sixty-three percent of young voters think neither party adequately represents them.
Young voters in 2020 were energized to vote against Trump. Now they have thrown in the towel.
And Biden telling everyone how great the economy is only rubs salt in the wound.
The War Between Knowledge And Stupidity
Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care
Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election
“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load
Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills
Problems After COVID-19 Vaccination More Prevalent Among Naturally Immune: Study
“Extreme Events”: US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In “Large Excess Over Trend”
Moderna turns the spotlight on long Covid with new initiatives
Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”
Looking Back At COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes
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