Forex and the Economy

SPX -- Scaling Out Of This Rally

Even in a fully traumatic longer term crash, The initial rally can cut the first leg of thedecline by half. That would be around 2800 on the SPX . The 2800 level also would equatewth fair value under fully normal conditions. We are far from normal times, so it is time forme to exit and concentrate o ...

Model Risk Management as Algo Trading Expands

The FICC Market Standards Board Ltd. (FMSB) is a London-based standards body for participants in the wholesale fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) markets. It has been looking into the root causes of market misconduct, and pursuant to that research it recently published a report on the ...

Stat Arb, Algos and the Difference Between Cats and Dogs

A co-founder of Quantigic Solutions has presented what he calls “the freshmanlevel” answer to the question: why did dollar-neutral quant trading strategies, such as equities stat arb, fail so markedly during the COVID-19 market sell-off? Zura Kakushadze, a professor at the Free University of Tbl ...

Still Risk of Further Downside in Precious Metals and Miners - David Brady (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020 PHYSICAL GOLD & SILVER No major changes in premiums in the past week from either a dollar or percentage basis relative to the paper spot price. Inventory levels in coins remain unchanged, and bars of 10 oz. or greater still remain virtually non-existent. Silver premiums remain signifi ...

Can the West Survive Another Economic Shutdown? - Nathan McDonald (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020 We are now entering into the "new normal", the post COVID-19 age, in which things will be radically different for the near-to-medium term. Many businesses are beginning to "re-open", albeit as a shadow of their former selves—and a shadow of their former profits. Many other businesses ...

Maxime Bernier Becomes First Major Western Political Leader to Call for a Gold Standard - Peter Diekmeyer (June 02, 2020)

June 02, 2020 Maxime Bernier, who recently became the world’s first major leader to call for the re-imposition of the gold standard, is quietly carving out a niche as one of the country’s most innovative monetary policy thinkers. “Central banks are printing massive amounts of currency to pre ...

Consolidation Continues in Gold & Silver Prior to Next Rally - David Brady (June 4, 2020)

June 4, 2020 Precious metals and miners continue to go sideways-to-down for now. This makes sense after strong rallies in each, and it facilitates a reset of the overbought and bullish conditions to enable the next rally to new highs. However, there is a small but not insignificant risk of a deep ...

Civil Unrest, Trade Wars, Crashing GDP, Bankruptcies, COVID-19: Bull Market? - Nathan McDonald (June 5, 2020)

June 5, 2020 As the threat of COVID-19 reared its ugly head and the economy shut down, things went south—and they went south quickly. The markets were decimated, marking one of the most historic economic crashes in financial history as they dropped by record-breaking numbers in a 24-hour perio ...

The New Normal​ - Paul Wong (June 5, 2020)​

June 5, 2020 Gold bullion1 continued to deliver strong performance and was up 14.04% YTD through May 31, 2020, and 32.54% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities (SGDM)2 have gained 18.26% YTD, and 61.70% YOY as of May 31. This compares to -4.97% YTD and 12.84% YOY returns for the S&P 500 T ...

Fed Tapers Liquidity, Raising the Risk of Further Downside - David Brady (June 11, 2020)

June 11, 2020 FUNDAMENTALS The latest economic information is driven by the following: The surprising increase in non-farm payrolls, which drove stocks and bond yields higher. I believe this is at best temporary given the ongoing destruction of the mainstream economy. The euphoria that followed w ...