Fed

Commodity Tracker: 4 charts to watch this week

A recovery in Chinese independent refiners’ oil imports tops this week’s pick of trends in energy and raw materials markets. EU carbon markets, the relationship between US rig counts and tubular steel prices, and LNG supply to Europe are also on the agenda. 1. Saudi crude supply to Chinese ind ...

Insight from Washington: Trump uses oil diplomacy, executive orders to aid US producers

A day after US light crude futures took an unprecedented dive into negative territory, President Donald Trump promised to deliver federal relief to domestic oil and gas producers just like the US Congress had approved for airlines and a host of other industries as the pandemic wreaked havoc on the ...

Deflation Pressure

I have used an inflation directional pressure gauge for nearly 50 years with good results. Itbecame a deflation pressure gauge over 2008 - 10 and that is what it has turned into againrecently. Basically, I watch the longer term momentum of commodity price composites alongwith measures of economic sl ...

Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Testimony

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Still Near All-Time LowsMortgage rates were slightly higher today for the average lender. Additionally, some lenders bumped rates a bit in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond market. … the average ...

Industrial Production Increased 1.4 Percent in May

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Total industrial production increased 1.4 percent in May, as many factories resumed at least partial operations following suspensions related to COVID-19. Even so, total industrial production in May was 15.4 percent below its pre-pandemic ...

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Fed Chair Powell Testimony

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.100 million SAAR, up from 0.891 million SAAR in April.• At 12:00 PM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome ...

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 1.450 million initial claims, down from 1.542 million the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -25.0, up fr ...

Philly Fed Manufacturing firms reported "signs of improvement" in June

Note: Be careful with diffusion indexes. This shows a rebound off the bottom - some improvement from May to June - but doesn't show the level of activity.From the Philly Fed: June 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing conditions in the region showed signs of improvement this mont ...

Still Risk of Further Downside in Precious Metals and Miners - David Brady (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020 PHYSICAL GOLD & SILVER No major changes in premiums in the past week from either a dollar or percentage basis relative to the paper spot price. Inventory levels in coins remain unchanged, and bars of 10 oz. or greater still remain virtually non-existent. Silver premiums remain signifi ...

Civil Unrest, Trade Wars, Crashing GDP, Bankruptcies, COVID-19: Bull Market? - Nathan McDonald (June 5, 2020)

June 5, 2020 As the threat of COVID-19 reared its ugly head and the economy shut down, things went south—and they went south quickly. The markets were decimated, marking one of the most historic economic crashes in financial history as they dropped by record-breaking numbers in a 24-hour perio ...