Cartography Corner – December 2021
J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s…
J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.
GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments. If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.
The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.
November 2021 Review
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We begin with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ1) during November 2021. In our November 2021 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:
In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:
o M4 4911.75
o M3 4896.25
o M1 4658.00
o PMH 4602.75
o Close 4597.00
o MTrend 4445.47
o PML 4260.00
o M2 4226.25
o M5 3972.50
Active traders can use MTrend: 4445.47 as the pivot, maintaining a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.
Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for November 2021 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines. The option tail wagged the dog again. Like what occurred in three of the previous five months, the market put in a local high on November 5th (the fifth trading session) and then declined over the next three trading sessions by (1.84%), high-to-low.
Over the following eight trading sessions, the market price rallied 2.49% from the previous low to the intra-day high on November 22nd. That turned out to be the high for the month, as the news surrounding a new strain of the COVID-19 virus began to dissipate. On November 26th, the United Kingdom announced that it was suspending travel from six African countries.
The final three trading sessions saw the market price decline by (2.83%), close-to-close.
Figure 1:
Japanese Yen Futures
We continue with a review of Japanese Yen Futures (6JZ1) during November 2021. In our November 2021 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:
In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:
o M4 0.91290
o PMH 0.90275
o MTrend 0.89918
o M1 0.88835
o Close 0.87800
o PML 0.87215
o M3 0.85790
o M2 0.85170
o M5 0.82715
Active traders can use PML: 0.87215 as the initial pivot, maintaining a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.
Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for November 2021 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines. The first seven trading sessions in November saw the market price ascend to 0.88735, just shy of our isolated resistance level at M1: 0.88835. The market price immediately reversed from this level. Over the following eleven trading sessions, the market price declined by (2.28%).
Starting with the “risk-off” event of November 26th, the yen rallied over the final three trading sessions by 2.08%, close-to-close.
Figure 2:
December 2021 Analysis
We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ1). The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.
Trends:
o Weekly Trend 4667.67
o Daily Trend 4621.14
o Current Settle 4566.25
o Monthly Trend 4495.83
o Quarterly Trend 4135.58
The relative positioning of the Trend Levels is starting a bearish transition. Think of the relative positioning of the Trend Levels like you would a moving-average cross. In the quarterly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are “Trend Up”, having settled above Quarterly Trend for six quarters. Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are “Above Trend: 2 Months”. Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are “Below Trend: 1 Weeks”.
One rule we have is to anticipate a two-period high (low), within the following four to six periods, after a Downside (Upside) Exhaustion level has been reached. The signal was given the week of November 22nd to anticipate a two-week high within the next four to six weeks. That high can be achieved this week with a trade above 4740.50.
Support/Resistance:
In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:
o M4 5221.00
o M1 4878.25
o M2 4854.00
o PMH 4740.50
o Close 4566.25
o PML 4557.00
o M3 4535.50
o M5 4511.25
o MTrend 4495.83
Active traders can use MTrend: 4495.83 as the pivot, maintaining a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.
Coffee Futures
For December, we focus on Coffee Futures. We provide a monthly time-period analysis of KCH2. The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.
Trends:
o Daily Trend 237.16
o Current Settle 232.30
o Weekly Trend 228.74
o Monthly Trend 207.63
o Quarterly Trend 154.41
The relative positioning of the Trend Levels is bullish. Think of the relative positioning of the Trend Levels like you would a moving-average cross. As can be seen in the quarterly chart below, coffee is “Trend Up”, having settled four quarters above Quarterly Trend. Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that coffee is “Trend Up”, having settled eight months above Monthly Trend. Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that coffee is “Trend Up”, having settled above Weekly Trend for five weeks.
One rule we have is to anticipate a two-period high (low), within the following four to six periods, after a Downside (Upside) Exhaustion level has been reached. The signal was given in 1Q2021 to anticipate a two-quarter high within the next four to six quarters (now one to three). That high can be achieved this quarter with a trade above 0.930900. The signal was given the week of October 11th to anticipate a two-week high within the next four to six weeks (now one to three). That high can be achieved this week with a trade above 0.8832500.
Speculative positioning, structural momentum, and trend persistence are all in the extreme right tail of their distributions. We encourage clients to review those graphs on the website.
Support/Resistance:
In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:
o M4 305.10
o M1 281.25
o M3 260.11
o PMH 248.20
o Close 232.20
o M2 211.60
o MTrend 207.63
o PML 201.45
o M5 187.75
Active traders can use PMH: 248.20 as the initial pivot, maintaining a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.
Summary
The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time. Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges. Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history. We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight into many different markets. If you are a professional market participant and are open to discovering more, please connect with us. We are not asking for a subscription; we are asking you to listen.
The post Cartography Corner – December 2021 appeared first on RIA.
sp 500 covid-19 linkGovernment
Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19
Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19
A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…
A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.
What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will catch the disease and require hospitalization.
"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.
According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.
What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.
"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.
More via the Epoch Times;
The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.
Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.
“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.
COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.
The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.
“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.
The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.
“Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.
The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.
According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.
International
Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”
Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"
Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…
Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86.
So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip.
Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...
Thousands of people have been asking if I'd run for Senate leadership...
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each.
????????️VOTE NOW ????️ ???? Who would you like to be the next Senate leader?
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse.
I would support Rand Paul and suspect that other candidates will not actually run polls out of concern for the results, but let’s see if they will!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 8, 2024
Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:
This bill is an insult to the American people. The earmarks are all the wasteful spending that you could ever hope to see, and it should be defeated. Read more: https://t.co/Jt8K5iucA4 pic.twitter.com/I5okd4QgDg
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) March 8, 2024
In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act.
Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."
Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support:
Mitch McConnell, who has served in the Senate for almost 40 years, announced he'll step down this November.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) February 28, 2024
Part of public service is about knowing when to usher in a new generation. It’s time to promote leaders in Washington, DC who won’t kowtow to the military contractors or…
In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience.
That may be his strongest endorsement yet.
Government
The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While “Waiting” For Deporation, Asylum
The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum
Over the past several…
Over the past several months we've pointed out that there has been zero job creation for native-born workers since the summer of 2018...
... and that since Joe Biden was sworn into office, most of the post-pandemic job gains the administration continuously brags about have gone foreign-born (read immigrants, mostly illegal ones) workers.
And while the left might find this data almost as verboten as FBI crime statistics - as it directly supports the so-called "great replacement theory" we're not supposed to discuss - it also coincides with record numbers of illegal crossings into the United States under Biden.
In short, the Biden administration opened the floodgates, 10 million illegal immigrants poured into the country, and most of the post-pandemic "jobs recovery" went to foreign-born workers, of which illegal immigrants represent the largest chunk.
'But Tyler, illegal immigrants can't possibly work in the United States whilst awaiting their asylum hearings,' one might hear from the peanut gallery. On the contrary: ever since Biden reversed a key aspect of Trump's labor policies, all illegal immigrants - even those awaiting deportation proceedings - have been given carte blanche to work while awaiting said proceedings for up to five years...
... something which even Elon Musk was shocked to learn.
Wow, learn something new every day https://t.co/8MDtEEZGam
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 10, 2024
Which leads us to another question: recall that the primary concern for the Biden admin for much of 2022 and 2023 was soaring prices, i.e., relentless inflation in general, and rising wages in particular, which in turn prompted even Goldman to admit two years ago that the diabolical wage-price spiral had been unleashed in the US (diabolical, because nothing absent a major economic shock, read recession or depression, can short-circuit it once it is in place).
Well, there is one other thing that can break the wage-price spiral loop: a flood of ultra-cheap illegal immigrant workers. But don't take our word for it: here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself during his February 60 Minutes interview:
PELLEY: Why was immigration important?
POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.
PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?
POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.
I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.
PELLEY: The country needed the workers.
POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.
Translation: Immigrants work hard, and Americans are lazy. But much more importantly, since illegal immigrants will work for any pay, and since Biden's Department of Homeland Security, via its Citizenship and Immigration Services Agency, has made it so illegal immigrants can work in the US perfectly legally for up to 5 years (if not more), one can argue that the flood of illegals through the southern border has been the primary reason why inflation - or rather mostly wage inflation, that all too critical component of the wage-price spiral - has moderated in in the past year, when the US labor market suddenly found itself flooded with millions of perfectly eligible workers, who just also happen to be illegal immigrants and thus have zero wage bargaining options.
None of this is to suggest that the relentless flood of immigrants into the US is not also driven by voting and census concerns - something Elon Musk has been pounding the table on in recent weeks, and has gone so far to call it "the biggest corruption of American democracy in the 21st century", but in retrospect, one can also argue that the only modest success the Biden admin has had in the past year - namely bringing inflation down from a torrid 9% annual rate to "only" 3% - has also been due to the millions of illegals he's imported into the country.
We would be remiss if we didn't also note that this so often carries catastrophic short-term consequences for the social fabric of the country (the Laken Riley fiasco being only the latest example), not to mention the far more dire long-term consequences for the future of the US - chief among them the trillions of dollars in debt the US will need to incur to pay for all those new illegal immigrants Democrat voters and low-paid workers. This is on top of the labor revolution that will kick in once AI leads to mass layoffs among high-paying, white-collar jobs, after which all those newly laid off native-born workers hoping to trade down to lower paying (if available) jobs will discover that hardened criminals from Honduras or Guatemala have already taken them, all thanks to Joe Biden.
-
Uncategorized2 weeks ago
All Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
Uncategorized1 month ago
Cathie Wood sells a major tech stock (again)
-
Uncategorized3 weeks ago
California Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized2 weeks ago
Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized4 weeks ago
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
International3 days ago
Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
-
International3 days ago
EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire
-
Uncategorized3 weeks ago
RFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex